Otto von Ballpark

Which is the also the chance for Minnesota to lose the game, which is what we should be trying to avoid. By WPA, we had a 19% chance to win the game when Jackson was coming up. Not great, but not the kind of chance you disregard in the opening game of a 3 game home series versus your division rival in a pennant race. Especially not in regard to bullpen decisions after an off day with a likely cancellation the next day too.

Actually, it is you who is wrong here. The leverage index for the plate appearance in question (Boshers vs RHB Jackson) was 1.30. Not 0.33. Citing a different plate appearance is misleading at best.

The leverage index when Jackson batted with 2 runners on was 1.30. Above average leverage.

The decision to leave Boshers in was even more curious, given the commonly known weather forecast for the next day. Not that he should have ridden his bullpen too hard Tuesday, but it probably wasn't the time to squeeze more PA from Boshers either.

Even May was hurt and ineffective for much of 2016, and Chargois missed two whole seasons and only had a month of effective MLB pitching on his resume. And like I always say, you don't have to cut them. You can certainly hope they contribute. But planning on 5 of 6? That's not bad luck, that's bad planning.

That was one of the things that bugged me in the Gleeman - Levine interview: Counting on 5 of those 6 to be healthy and effective in MLB in 2017 never seemed realistic.

De La Torre is actually 18 now, turned 18 in July. Only a month and a half younger than Royce Lewis, but B-Ref uses July 1st as "baseball age" for the season.

That's just extrapolating based on the current roster, right? Doesn't look like the Twins have announced a starter for Saturday yet.

He left Boshers in to face a good RHB, in a close game, after he failed to retire either of 2 LHB and we had an entire rested pen at our disposal after an off day.

Reminded me statistically of Kohl Stewart's rookie league performance: 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 84 batters faced, 4 walks, 13 hits (10 singles), while striking out 24 with a 50 percent grounder rate. Should that have reaffirmed our belief in the old regime?

Maybe it's Buxton's fault for not pulling that ball down too.

Would 2017 have been so surprising if 2016 hadn't been so bad? (Surprising in the wrong direction) Feels like Molitor is getting credit based on the low expectations for which he should share the blame.

Waivers? I guess they might be able to get another team's Belisle...

I guess a better way to express it, rather than age, would be signing date. The deadline used to be later. Owings, Lindor, and Harper didn't even sign until August 11/15/16, respectively. Lewis isn't really doing something they failed to do in their first year, so much as they didn't have the chance. And actually, Mike Trout did get promoted to the Midwest League in his draft year, on September 1st. And he signed about 2 weeks later than Lewis, so it's roughly an equal accomplishment, I'd say. Of course, pointing out the other circumstances around his promotion is hardly being critical of Lewis. Still an outstanding group of comparables!

With the playoff berth locked up, Cedar Rapids is guaranteed to play through September 7, and their playoffs could extend to September 21st or so if they advance to later rounds. The GCL Twins could make their playoffs too, but their season ends earlier and the playoffs are much shorter. Probably the longest it could go would be around September 7. So I suspect this decision might involve lengthening his season, and getting him acclimated to the Midwest League before playoff time arrives. Still, that should have benefits going into 2018 too -- maybe that promotion to high-A will come all the sooner?

To be fair, Lewis was a few months older when drafted than Correa, Lindor, Harper, Trout, Grichuk, Owings, etc. So them starting the next season at A ball wasn't that much different than Lewis getting promoted there now. Not that Lewis is particularly old or anything. A few lower round picks (Jon Singleton, Jake Bauers) seem to meet this criteria too. Still, I'm glad to see it with Lewis!

Now you are conflating this with individual outcomes. Sure, it was unlikely at points for Boshers to make MLB, but teams come up with Boshers-level replacement performances all the time. Reminds me of past debates that argued the Twins pulled off a scouting/development win by getting Tonkin in a late round and seeing him reach MLB. Sure, Tonkin individually beat some odds as a late round pick to reach MLB, but teams have occasional late round picks reach MLB, it's not a particularly meaningful occurrence on a team level. Not that there is anything wrong with Boshers or Tonkin or the team using them, but you can't really use their modest performances to date as evidence of the Twins acumen. It's really just part of the baseline for MLB orgs.

By "possible" I wasn't just inventing fairy tales. KATOH projects Watson at 2.6 WAR for his career, and that could be giving him the benefit of the doubt (his stats seem better regarded than his scouting?). Kintzler had 1.3 WAR for 2017 when we traded him. A reasonable projection might have been 0.7-0.8 WAR for the rest of the season. In a pennant race, that could be huge -- and yes, it could be the difference in making the playoffs or not. Imagine if the 2015 Twins had "traded" Perkins at the deadline (instead of losing him to injury). That could have easily been another ~1 WAR difference, and while we finished 3 games out, we were only 1 game out entering our final series, and we punted our last game after elimination. (And our bullpen took the loss in our elimination game too.) That 1 WAR could have re-made that entire stretch run. Also, trading Kintzler wasn't required to give young arms a look. And while I am not opposed to contributions from young players at any time, a good FO should be able to evaluate young players without using a pennant race to do so. And arguably the Twins FO has already done that -- if the FO believed in these young guys, they would have been up already, no? Kintzler was not blocking anyone. No one player is usually "the piece that is going to put a team over the top" but that doesn't mean it necessarily makes sense to trade those players for lotto tickets. It can be defensible, but it's hardly a slam dunk. I think the 2017 Twins are an edge case -- yeah, we're not in a great position, but Kintzler wasn't bringing back some special return either.

While getting anything back for Kintzler seems better than getting nothing for him after the season, it should be noted that Watson isn't a great prospect, and some have already predicted he will wind up in the pen himself. It's quite possible that Kintzler will provide more MLB value in the next two months than Tyler Watson will accumulate in his MLB career.

This is ignoring a lot of context. Think of the strikeout explosion in baseball over the last 10 years. Think of minor league run scoring differences like the FSL (Garver's high-A league) versus the Carolina League (Gimenez's high-A league). Fangraphs wRC+ is usually better than raw OPS or slash lines for such comparisons, although even that isn't perfect -- in the minors it adjusts for league but not park, and of course you should always look at the components to see if something flukey is skewing it. That makes it look quite a bit different. Gimenez seemed to dominate the lower minors, but he started his pro career earlier and got to repeat A-ball. He also put up his best season by wRC+ with an outlier 22.3% walk rate in AA. To put that into context, the only qualified batters that topped that rate in MLB the last 25 years are Barry Bonds and 1998 Mark McGwire! It happened for Gimenez, but it wasn't a sustainable path to that level of success going forward. Moving up to AAA at ages 25-27, Gimenez had some of his career worst minor league performances, only posting 101, 106, and 118 wRC+. By comparison, Garver had a 136 in his AAA debut last year at age 25, and is at 154 this year at age 26. Additionally, Gimenez never came close to the .245 isolated power that Garver is posting in Rochester this year either, except for his stint in the high-A and high-scoring Carolina League -- 4.69 runs/game, compared to 4.25 in the IL this year and only 3.73 for Garver's high-A league, the FSL. Moreover, Gimenez's home ballpark in the Carolina League was Kinston, a team which scored a whopping 5.63 runs per game, blowing away the rest of the league -- a park adjustment might be needed there? FWIW, Rochester is actually below league average in run scoring this year. Gimenez was also striking out in ~26% of PAs in his first couple AAA seasons, in leagues with a ~18% K rate -- this was before the strikeout explosion. Garver is at 23% this year, but in a league at 21.1%. And beyond stats, note that Gimenez failed to crack Sickels' top 20 Indians prospects lists coming off either of his two best minor league seasons (2007 at high-A, 2008 at AA). Garver doesn't fare well by prospect lists either, but Sickels had him at 15 before the season. It's worth noting that Gimenez wasn't born a backup catcher -- and there are plenty of limitations scouting minor league stat lines -- but you won't convince me Gimenez was a superior hitter to Garver coming out of the minors.

A technicality, but -- spring training invites are also called "Non-Roster Invitees" (or NRIs). Thus, a player on the 40-man roster doesn't need to be "invited" to spring training. He can just show up. But I'm not one to stand in the way of etiquette either!

FWIW, Gee is likely a free agent after the season. Just needs 30 more days service time the rest of the year, which seems fairly likely at this point. He should still be signable for 2018, but if he shows anything down the stretch, he only gets more expensive, primarily in terms of a guaranteed roster spot and perhaps assurances about his role. (Meaning, he might not want to sign here to be the 7/8 starter if he has a chance at 4/5 somewhere else.) Gee can also refuse an any optional assignments to the minor leagues, so he may not be stashable in AAA (although he has apparently consented to being optioned this season). Melville would have all 3 minor league option years remaining, although he will be eligible for minor league free agency this winter if not added to the 40-man roster.

Hopefully we give him a lot more 3 inning save opportunities!

But that kinda hinges on one's definition of "contribute". By bWAR, Boshers was a zero last year, and is only at 0.3 this year. Hopefully that trends up, but right now it's within a rounding error of nothing at all. Not that I disagree with your larger points. I don't mind signing guys out of indy leagues, and I don't mind giving them chances, although right now, in a pennant race, is a tricky spot for new tryouts. (One could argue that Boshers has been a bit of a detriment to that end in 2017, as he is a fairly old/known mediocrity taking a roster spot and innings that could have gone toward evaluating Turley or Melville in relief.)

Both first career grand slams too! (At least, Dozier's first in MLB, and Granite's first as a pro. Dozier hit 2 grand slams in the minors in 2011.)