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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Or Mejia, who ended 2018 on the shelf too... Still, they could aim higher.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Hasn't been announced, but this seems doubtful. The Sanchez deal was kind of unusual -- a MLB deal requiring a 40-man spot, but with a split salary if he didn't make the 25-man. I suspect the Perez deal is more straightforward. Especially if it has a second year option as reported, it doesn't seem they would bother with a provision where he could get cut in spring training. I suppose some of the salary could be in the form of incentives.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Perez is 27 now, but turns 28 as the season starts. Same as Odorizzi last year. Even if Perez returns to his 2016-2017 form, is that really worth much? Roughly league average ERA+ accounting for ballpark. Odorizzi fetched a pretty marginal trade return with similar performances, and was of questionable value on the field to us last year too. What exactly are we aiming for here?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    People toss out this "you need 8-10 starters every year" line, and it's true in a literal sense. But that doesn't mean 8-10 guys get meaningful opportunities to start. The last few guys on that list are probably looking at 1-5 starts for the year, which is better than nothing but not really much for evaluation or development. 15+ starts for Perez is kind of a big deal, relatively, especially on a team that has already committed 3 rotation spots (and corresponding salaries) for expiring contract SPs in Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda. They really need to invest something in finding starters for 2020 and beyond, and probably something more than a flyer with an option on a guy like Perez.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure he means someone has to get cut from the 40-man to make room for Perez. They will presumably be out of the organization, like Curtiss, so they won't be around to get another chance.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Perez did fine in the bullpen last year? 11 IP, 5 runs, 9 hits, 5 walks, 7 Ks. 5.7 K/9, 1.273 WHIP, 4.09 RA9.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, Sanchez was an MLB signing -- he required a 40-man spot when the Twins signed him. But it was a split contract that paid him less if he didn't make our 25 man roster.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    $3.5 mil guaranteed seems steep for a guy who *might* become a second lefty out of the pen...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps you are over-stating the difference in track record? Ottavino's 7 seasons in the pen: 9.2 bWAR, 5.5 fWAR in 390 innings. Reed's 7 seasons in the pen before signing with the Twins: 6.2 bWAR, 6.9 fWAR in 402 innings.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The curse of Eric Fox? https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN199207290.shtml
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    For many of us, born after 1976, that almost IS the curse -- not making it to the Super Bowl. 0-6 in conference championship games since then.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    How about short term commitments? How about young FAs like Machado or Harper? It's easy to argue against "long term commitments to aging veteran FA's" but there is a lot more nuance to the market than that. Take a look at some of the 2 year deals that have already been signed this offseason, and explain to me how adding two of those would have jeopardized the franchise's long term health: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-amount__sort_direction-0__contract_years_operator-3__contract_years-3
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    No. Mitch Garver is a 28 year old catcher, with 5 years team control. Cron is a 29 year old nontendered 1B. Rogers is a 28 year old middle reliever with 4 years control. May is a 29 year old reliever. In what universe do the Twins need to consider keeping significant payroll flexibility for these guys?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    These guys aren't prospects anymore, or even first or second year players. We have a ton of data on them already, and the data says that very few of them warrant a long term deal -- perhaps only Berrios, and as a pitcher, that should clock in less than a deal for a similarly situated position player. Even if some of them perform well in 2019, they still won't have a track record to warrant a commitment of significant long-term dollars. How much would you want to bet on one good year from Kepler or Polanco after a string of average ones? Now is a good time for a major investment externally because we have an internal group that could be useful but generally doesn't look like stars, and our best internal star potential might be 6+ years away (Lewis, Kirilloff, etc.). In your opinion, is there ever an appropriate time for the Twins to spend on a significant FA? Seems like that might be the real issue, rather than anything special about guys like Kepler and Polanco.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Notably, that's bWAR (ERA-based). His peripherals were awful in 1994 -- more walks than strikeouts! Thus he had a 6.21 FIP and negative fWAR at -0.2 (virtually the same marks as Jim Deshaises, who struggled to a 7.39 ERA that year.) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=1994&month=0&season1=1994&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 For his career, B-Ref has Mahomes with -0.5 bWAR; Fangraphs has him at -3.0 fWAR.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    IIRC, the Cubs did sign Lester after a 72 win season, although I guess they still had room to spend more later. I do wonder, though, if these teams were able to do this because their "rebuilds" went so well. If Correa turned out like Buxton, maybe Houston signs a big FA to help things along? Same for Bryant turning out like Sano for the Cubs? (And Cleveland fans might argue that their team hasn't yet spent enough to support the talent they've developed...)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily in baseball, thanks to an act of the devil (Jeffrey Loria).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The Orioles let Machado go because they were terrible and he wasn't going to re-sign there. (A more accurate phrasing would be that Machado let go of the Orioles...) The Dodgers let Machado go because they already have Seager and Turner at SS and 3B. (Seager was hurt last year, hence why they were interested in Machado as a rental.) I'd say it is curious that the Yankees apparently haven't pursued Machado in FA, but those top clubs also have luxury tax concerns which affect their strategy, so I wouldn't read too much into that.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Why are you worried about blocking at all? Machado can/should play third. (And Sano can/should play first, at some point.) Plenty of room for him and whatever prospects emerge over the next few years. Harper worries me a bit more. His K rate spiked to 24% last year, which isn't bad, but it isn't good either, and the Twins don't necessarily have a good recent track record of controlling K's. Plus he's just a corner outfielder -- he has to hit more than Machado to equal his value --- and to his credit, Harper has hit more than Machado over his career, but it's something that would worry me about a long term deal. I think the back half of a Machado contract could have more usefulness / trade value than the back half of Harper's, just based on position alone.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    And given the performance of most Rule 5 selections, it's not a stretch to imagine that Rule 6 might involve imbibing spirits, at least unofficially.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Cynthia?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Astudillo is the face *and* the body of the franchise right now. Also, the hair.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Sanchez took a 40-man spot last offseason when he was signed. It was a "split contract" that would have paid less in the minors than in MLB, but it wasn't a minor league deal. Also, it's unclear if the Twins would have been able to get a successful season from Sanchez. Although he would have been a nice alternative to try once he was healthly in June -- but so was Mejia and we passed on using him until our season was more or less out of hand...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so sure the Cano and Greinke signings count as "bad things" just because their teams have expressed a desire to get out of the back ends of the contracts. Every team wants to get out of the back ends of contracts if they can, and at least Cano's and Greinke's performances have made that somewhat feasible for their respective clubs -- they've gotten good production out of both to date. I'm also not sure how you define "mid-market" but if you include Seattle and Arizona, there are probably other examples too. Washington signing Scherzer, Texas signing A-Rod -- both of those turned out great in terms of player performance/value. There have been bad deals too -- Detroit signing Fielder (although they got out of some of it), Baltimore signing Chris Davis, Washington signing Werth, Colorado signing Hampton -- but those turned out bad because the players/terms turned out bad, not because of the team's market. Obviously a big market team can better absorb a contract if a player under-performs, but if the Twins think Harper and Machado project like A-Rod or Cano type talents at age 25, they probably shouldn't be afraid to offer up a big deal for them. (Keep in mind Cano's 10 year contract would be over now if he had signed it at the same age as Harper and Machado are now.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, no extensions for young guys would pay much more than they are already projected to make in 2019. Unless you are suggesting they should spend $X less than budget this season, so they could spend $X over budget in future seasons, but generally that doesn't seem to be how MLB accounting works. I would never trust it to actually happen.
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