AlwaysinModeration

I have a beef to pick with Tim Beckham.

I think Gibson's pitch count is too high to go the distance.

Bonus fun with numbers: Buxton’s career stolen base percentage is 89.4%, edging out the all-time career leader in steal percentage, who comes in at 87.9%. That player is....?

Byron Buxton stole his 25th consecutive base without getting caught yesterday (dating to back to May 23 of last year), putting him exactly halfway towards Vince Coleman’s MLB record 50 consecutive steals.

Cuing Chief for the correct answer to this question: Which is more valuable, a single or a walk?

Just so long as he finishes ahead of AJ, that’s all that matters.

Ryan LaMarre has the highest batting average in Twins history.

The first game of 2018, and Joe Mauer is back at it. After going 1-5, his career total now sits at 1987. In 1987, we saw Platoon, the Robert Bork Supreme Court nomination, Michael Jackson’s “Bad”, U2’s “Joshua Tree” and Prince’s “Sign o’ the Times”, “Tear down this wall!”, the Harmonic Convergence, Photoshop, Black Monday, Prozac, and the introduction of the Loonie. Oh, and a world championship for a certain baseball club from Minnesota...

I think the real story here is that Seth knew this was happening waaay before anyone else.

When are the games? I have imagine it is going to be a big ol party when Berrios pitches.

Damn, I had Ryan Lamarre in the pool, but foiled by Jake Reed.

Well, if MLB fixes the juiced balls, or they just regress to the mean, these pitchers should still improve this year. Hope this gambit works!

It also seems to me that the Pineda and Lynn contracts should be viewed as a package. The 2 year, $22million Plynneda pact could pay off nicely, getting the better year from each pitcher (Lynn, who is nearly 31, is entering his decline phase, so 2018 should be better than 2019, and Pineda will obviously be better in 2019 than in 2018).

In reviewing Michael Pineda’s stats, I wanted to see if he was giving up more homers in Yankee Stadium than in other parks - and thus might benefit from a change in scenery. Last year, though, it didn’t seem to be the case. Pineda gave up exactly 10 homers at home and on the road. Maybe my theory doesn’t hold water? Looking back further, however, the story changes. In 2016, Pineda gave up 20 homers at Home, and only 7 on the road. In 2016, his split was 16:5. All told, for his career, Pineda has given up homers at home at a rate of 1.48 per 9 innings, whereas on the road, his rate is 1.10. My theory is back - Pineda gives up 34% more home runs at home than on the road. Then I remembered that Lance Lynn had lousy FIP last year, a warning sign when he signed. Looking at his homer stats, though, and something interesting jumped out. Last year, Lynn gave up homers at a rate of 1.3 per 9 innings. His career rate was 0.7 taters per nine. Last year was nearly double his career norms. How about the other new rotation arm, Jake Odorizzi? Last year he had an ugly 1.9HR/9 rate. His career rates are 1.3/9. About a 50% increase over his career numbers. Of course, his 2016 was 1.4/9...but then look at his two previous years in Tampa, though, which were 1.0 and 1.1. Out of curiosity, let’s look at the recently departed Anibal Sanchez. Last year, his home run rates ballooned to a career high of 2.2 homers per nine innings. Over his career he’s given up an excellent 1.0/9. Of course, he now has three consecutive years of giving up 1.7 HR/9...so maybe Anibal is simply cooked. How about Addison Reed? Well, over his career he’s given up a stingy 0.9 homers per nine innings, but last year, down the stretch (small sample size alert), Reed gave up 1.7 homers per nine innings after landing in Boston. For years BABIP has been used as a means of looking for regression candidates; look for a player who gave up BABIP over .350 last year (and had lousier than usual overall numbers, because of it) and expect his stats to revert back to career norms next year. Or, another way of thinking about it - look at a good hitter whose BABIP suddenly spikes over .350 in a given year, and then see how many MVP votes he gets that year. Is the Twins Front Office particularly focused on fluctuations in home run rates? Is it a coincidence that many of their pitching acquisitions this year had flukily high home runs given up last year (or in Pineda’s case, a clear home/away split driven by Yankee Stadium?) Just a theory, but that’s what it seems like to me.

Lynn has posted 3+ WAR the last three years he has pitched; 2017, 2015, and 2014. The Twins have had exactly one pitcher post 3+ WAR in each of the past four seasons; Ervin, Ervin, Gibson, and Hughes. In short, Lynn is likely to be one of the best two pitchers on the team this year. Add to it the fact that he was signed for a single year at a bargain price, this is an excellent signing. There is almost nothing not to like about this deal. Well done, Thad Levine.

The Twins have spent years without having a strong, consistent option (and in particular, that is a power threat) from the DH spot. There have been many many days that the DH has been a utility infielder or even the back-up catcher. Morrison probably won’t hit 38 home runs this season. (We said that about Dozier last year too.) But his signing, his left-handedness, his on-base/slugging combo - on a cheap contract with an option - is a huge win for the Twins, and a great step in the direction of fielding the strongest line-up possible. I see nothing not to like about this move. Well done, Thad Levine. And Odorizzi, too, if he really played a role.

Yes, and just wait until they trade Archer to the Twins!

Don’t spring training box scores typically list all ABs as one pitch?

If he has a good year, I’m guessing he jumps into the top 10 nationally.

I cannot speak for “people.” However, to me, insofar as winning it would help solidify his chances of enshrinement in Cooperstown, yes, I care.

I think you are right. The log jam seems to be broken, and the prices are going down a bit bit but not overly so. Seems like it really was just a confluence of events. But also seems contracts may need to be more creative with opt outs and incentives than they were in the past to make them more palatable than the standard long term deals. Random side note...did Mauer’s chances of winning the gold glove just go up?

The argument is that the cost for Odorizzi was not steep because a) he is not good, or b ) the Rays really value Palacios (and thus the cost was in fact steep, c) Palacios is really good, or d) Rays were just shedding payroll. To these arguments, I say: a) maybe, time will tell how good he is. But if he isn’t, this isn’t something to get worked up over b ) maybe, but even if so, why didn’t the Rays get more than Palacios, even if they think Palacios is the next Miguel Tejada c) maybe, if so great, the Twins have a hugely deep farm system and are using it to improve a clear area of need d) maybe, in which case the Twins lucked out, especially that the Rays didn’t shop him more extensively looking for a better deal. In any event, I still like the trade, think they got a rotation upgrade with potential for upside for peanuts, and think it will work out as a win for the Twins. Now, random note...was Odorizzi the name of the dog from Garfield?

Yes, obviously. I mean, you can’t get the fan base all fired up without the veneer of plausibility.

That seems like highway robbery to me. When I saw the headline, I immediately looked to see what prospects they gave up, assuming it would be a couple in the 15 range. Pretty amazed to see it be only Palacios. Makes me wonder how far off this board is in terms of guesses on an Archer offer.

Remember when Kohl Stewart was a higher ranked and more highly regarded prospect than Gonsalves? That seems like a long time ago.