Doc Munson

The Minnesota Twins this year are in position to change MLB!! For a team that has claimed a desire to contend in 2022 it has very little in the way of pitching, and has shown little to no interest in the FA agent crop of pitchers. SO how can a team with current starters slotted in as Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober? Dylan Bundy has only thrown over 162 innings twice in his career and that was 2017-2018. and coming off seasons of 65 (Covid) and 90 innings. He cannot be counted on to take on a bunch of innings. Joe Ryan has never thrown over 123 innings... ZERO in 2020 (covid) and just 92 between AAA & MLB last year. even a 50% increase is still less than 150 innings. Bailey Ober never threw more than 80 innigns in any season prior to last year when he set a highwater mark of 92 innigns between minors and MLB. again another 50% increase get to only 150 innings. So the three pitchers we have on our team assuming 32 starts per year will pitch les than 5 innings on average. Our minor league pitching that is near MLB ready or MLB ready are... Jordan Balazovic... 23... coming off career high 97 innings Jhoan Duran... 24... coming off injury 100IP in 2018 & 115 IP 2019 but 0 2020 and just 16 in 2021. Simeon Woods Richardson... 21... innings max of 106 in 2019 with 0 in 2020 and 53 in 2021 Josh Winder... 25... a respectable 125 IP in 2019 but again 0 in 2020 and 72 in 2021 Matt Canterino... 24... never more than 25 in his 3 seasons including 23 in 2021 Drew Strotman... 25... finally cracked 100 after never throwing more than 50 IP with 112 in 2021. SO... you see most of our prospects are at the age where they should be contributing to a MLB (usualyl 23, 24) this includes. Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Canterino, Strotman. This all begs the question... How do we get these guys to the big leagues before they are "too old" But yet not ONE indiviudally seems fully ready by if nothign else at least pitch/innings count to be a starting pitcher full time? Sure, we can move a couple to the bullpen. BUT on a team like the Twins, who love analytics, and seemingly never let their pitchers face a batter a third time, you will see the Twins go with 1, MAYBE 2 traditional starters (once we resign Pineda) and the rest will be piggy backed pitching "teams" Twins will have 8 starters. with the #3, #4, #5 starters all pitching in the "buddy system" with each one going a max of 4 innings. The theory being that if each starter can go 4 innings, then that leaves just 1 inning for the back of the bullpen to take care of, so as a result you do not need a ton of relievers. You just have your top 3 power arms in the bullpen. So you have a pitching 13 man pitching staff of 8 starters, 3 back end relievers and 2 "wild cards" or specialists. This is a move I HATE!!! but this WILL happen in 2022, and the sad thing as I want the Twins to succeed, then I have to want this to succeed, and if it does then in the copy cat league we have, more teams will do it and we will lose more and more of "traditional" ball.

I thought for just a brief second we may actualyl have an ORIGINAL, UNIQUE article here. you touched on it for just a quick second Cody when you said the Twins FO didnt have a whisper on any FA pitcher. Thsi makes me more happy than if we DID try and get pitchers and failed. this at least tells me that whether I agree with it or not, the Twins FO ACTUALLY HAS A PLAN for once!!! hehe. Sure there were pitchers I wanted like Jon Gray and maybe Stroman, but this at least means the FO has their plan and it never included FA signings. I think they are confident that Pineda will ultimately resgin. This means either the trade option was the way they were going the entire time, or actually I think more likely... I think they fancy themselves the new TB Rays. where they can develop pitching. I said before and I thin i still agree with myself (although not 100%) that with a combination of #1 a large number of quality arms nearing MLB ready, #2 A majority of them being on some sort of innings limit, and #3 the Twins LOVING (and me HATING) analytics and not letting our pitchers go past 5 innings anyways... we will see or #5 starter be actually TWO young propsects piggybacking each other, with each pitchers going 3-4 innings. and I acually wouldnt be too shocked to see us end up with TWO sets of piggy backing starters!!! Now THERE is an article for someone!!! fewer "general relievers" and more "piggy back starters" with 3-4 back end of the rotation power arms.

If the A's include the "perpetualyl injured but really though if he can stay healthy this year" guy in AJ Puk, then I would consider this deal. I love the upside of Duran, but all the TWins will do is make him a releiver anyways. and at least getting back equally powerful arm that is equally injury prone in Puk would help offset that risk. Cavaco still has upside, but he is a diem a dozen upside. we have 6 others exactly like him. Although if I remember correctly wasnt he compared to A-rod after being drafted??? So that leaves Arraez & Strotman. Arraez is a nice bat, but how many innings is he really going to play? with Nick Gordon also here as a potential utility guy I am not sure how yo manage AB's around both Gordon and Arraez (assuming we get a decent SS option). and then there is Strotman. I have no strong opinion, except maybe he is similar to a number of other decent to good pitchign prospects we have, SO if I Do not see Cavaco making it to the bigs with others ahead of him. and I see Duran and his big yet injured arm swapped with Puk and his big yet injured arm, then I ask... woudl I do Arraez and Strotman for Montas? and the answer is an unsexy yes.

Nope, Nope, and Nope. Kikuchi?? This wouldnt be the WORST move the Twins could make, If I wanted to promote this signing I would say he is a lefty, he averages over 5 innings per start and he is actually improving across the board year over year, BUT he is still a #3-4 starter and we could do better, plus with our Philosophy he will never get a chance to pitch past 5 innings anyways, no pitcher will so who cares that he averages more than 5 innings. One of his main values is moot with this teams pitching philosphy. Rodriguez?? meh. insert any generic name here and would be equal. btu we will en dup having at LEAST one of our young starting prospects converted to a relief role this year, either because of innings limits, or wanting to maximize stuff out of the pen. (my guess is Duran). again not a HORRIBLE move, but also doesnt do much. Story??? RUN WAY!!!!! hsi home/away splits are HORRIBLE!!! Home = .972 OPS, Away = .752 His OPS+ home = 124 (or 24% better than average SS) away = 76 (or 24% WORSE than average SS). at home his K rate is 28% on the road it is 34%. The ONLY reason you sign Story is if it is a 1 year deal and we have plans to trade him at the deadline should one of our prospects prove ready.

WHen it comes to Kirilloff replacing Sano at 1B, the issue isnt so much that Kirilloff is so much better of a 1B than Sano, it is more that Kirilloff is so much WORSE of an OF. Twins WILL find a place for his bat. if Kirilloff could play a lick in the OF there would be ZERO discussion about Sano's defensive liabilities at 1B.

These discussions are always interesting, I think the one thing that gets lost though, is that most people are making suggestions one way or the other based on the assumptions that Baldelli and the FO have ANY desire to have a standard pitching program. We think we can outsmart the rest of baseball. We are in the "perfect" situation for Baldelli and Falvine. We have a TON of pitching prospects all nearing MLB readiness, yet many coming off of injuries or low innings counts from last year. Balazovic 97 IP Woods Richardson (not super close)53 IP, Duran 16 IP, Ryan 92 (between minors and bigs) Winder 72 IP Canterino 23 IP Strottman 112 IP, Vallimont 94 IP, etc. and of course the Twins will eb using the "well they missed an entire season of development in 2020" until 2032 with regards to building up innings... You combine the number of quality arms that are relatively near being MLB ready, who have very small number of annualized innings, along with the Sabermetric/statcast thinking of our FO and Baldelli, and what you get is a guaranteed "piggy back" approach to our rotation. I absolutely guarantee you what we will see is AT LEAST the #4 & #5 spot in our rotation being used with "piggy back" pitchers. pick any 4 from above and pair them up. Balazovic goes 3 innings and gives way to Winder for 3 innings. Strottman goes 3 innings and gives way to Duran for 3 innings This way they only need 3 true starters, and if they think Bundy is one, and if they think Ober & Ryan can be true starters, then that means we are set... MAYBE resign Pineda. then we have a rotation with Ryan, Ober, Pineda, Bundy, and then have a Piggy back pair of pitchers on the MLB team, and a paired piggy back tandem together at St. Paul. then call up and demote them in pairs as needed. Im "old school", dont not want this, I want pitchers to go 7-8 innings with real shot at CG, but this is what will happen.

I would say if we make a move for someone like Bassit, then also add a littel extra to get AJ Puk. Puk is an "older young player" and a history of injuries, but still has potential. Either as a starter or a big arm out of the bullpen

There are relatively few guarantees in baseball, and even less when it comes to what a new CBA will look like. Let's take a look at a few potential additions, and how it can impact the Twins (and other clubs). Today I want to talk about one potentially significant change. Salary Floor Both sides have spoken about a potential salary floor in some form or fashion. When both sides reference the possibility of something then it is only a matter of the details. It WILL be in the new CBA. How will that impact teams? or better yet how can some teams leverage this to their advantage? Lets assume a $100M floor for simplicity sake. This would mean there is a TON of money that will HAVE to be spent. If you MUST spend it, you can do 1 of 3 things. #1 spend big on top tier players. Of course there are relatively few top tier players left to spend money on. #2 overpay average players, which is just silly. #3 take on bad contracts. Lets take a look at a strategy behind #3. First lets identify teams that A) already have very high salaries which could be looking for some relief. B.) Still want to add a big piece or two, and C) have underperforming big salaries they want to dump. D) are in "Win Now" mode. The strategy here is to spend the money you are forced to by taking on bad contracts in exchange for quality prospects. Here are 3 of the top 4 teams in committed salaries for 2021. Each of these teams meet this criteria. Mets, Dodgers, Padres. Mets: The Mets currently sit at $235M and they still want to add more. They have a bad contract in Robinson Cano. $24M for '21 & '22. They also have some decent young players or prospects I would take a flier on. Would the Mets give up both Dom Smith & Thomas Szapucki for a team to take Cano's salary off the books? You have to spend the money anyways. Dom Smith is a Gold Glove 1B who is stuck behind Alonso. We have Sano, and hopefully he has a great offseason and comes into camp down 40 pounds like Vlad Guererro, but if he doesn't, Smith would be a great long term piece at 1B, and Szapucki would be another MLB ready arm with injury history, and we have enough of those, but he could also be a great buy low candidate. Dodgers: Dodgers are currently at $213M and still want to bring back Kershaw, and need to replace Seager at SS. Nobody will touch Bauer, but what about taking on the final year of David Price at $32M. There is not a TON I like in their system, but maybe a Ryan Pepiot, but maybe a young player like Gavin Lux. Padres: Here is the one that excites me the most. Padres at $180M, but they would love to either upgrade some spots or swap out contracts. You take on BOTH Wil Myer, and Eric Hosmer. You help SD clear $40M off the books to free that up for them to go after bigger impact players you have to ask what would they give up? Would they give up CJ Abrams? that is a ton, and we already have plenty of SS, but having Lewis, Martin, Abrams all in the system and nearly ready could allow you to use that depth to then trade for potential ACE pitching prospects. Would they give up Gore? How about a trade along the lines of Max Kepler, and Brent Rooker or Trevor Larnach in exchange for either Gore or Abrams along with taking on the contracts of Myer & Hosmer? What moves would you make if there is a salary floor and the Twins are forced to spend at least another $30M without there being a lot left in FA?

yes, I am nto saying he would offset 100% of his contract. What I am saying is a team who dwould otherwise not sell as many tickets woudl have a dispraportionate benefit from signing a hihg end player than a team who consistently fills seats. that was really my point. disregard my weird specifics. lol

retaining Cave scares. LINE We are not going to sign Buxton, so we will be trading him and need as many backup options as possible. LINE Read between the lines to figure out what is going on with keeping Cave.

OK yes, this may be a "Get Off My Lawn!!" comment, but if we go this route I will be one step closer to moving on from being a lifelong Twins fan. I just hate what the game is turning/turned into. pitchers only go a few innings, defensive shifts, etc. AND to me this makes no sense from a marketing standpoint. You need stars to market your team. The Twins are actually one of the few teams who CAN afford an ace like Scherzer... Why? because right now we do not sell tickets. Scherzer will put butts in seats = $, which will drive concessions sales =$ He will drive Jersey sales =$ You can SELL a star like Scherzer (or anyone else) How are you going to SELL Cahill and Tomlin? "OK Kids lets get our Twins gear on and head out to the old ballgame... Tomlin and Cahill are piggybacking on the mound tonight!!!!!!! sure hope there are still some good seats!!" And, You do not even have a greater chance of winning going this route!! The only reason you can point to the people winning World Series' like this is because the WS has small sample sizes. I may be proven wrong, but going this way over the course of a full season you will tire out arms. For every pitcher you are able to keep fresh by less innings, you will have 1-2 relief pitchers get fatigued due to pitching their HIGHEST number of innings. And do I need to remind you how the Dodgers absolutely blew their chances by turning to short stints and using pitchers in varying roles, vs just letting their starter throw?!?!?! Lets look at the top pitching teams from last year (using the old fashioned ERA) 1= DODGERS: Buehler, Urias, Scherzer (after trade)Kershaw (before injury) all averaged at or near 6 innings. (which is sad 6 is the benchmark now) 2= GIANTS: Gausman, DeSclafini, Webb, Wood = all again through at or around 6 innings per start. and these are NOT household names. 3= BREWERS: Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Hauser... you guessed it at or near 6 innings. 4= RAYS: Here is your outlier with 8 pitchers starting at least 10 games. 5= WHITE SOX: 5 pitchers averaging 5 1/3 innings, a little bit below 6 innings per, but close.

I guess I give an A for the creativity, but an F- on the logic (although 90% of my own moves do not follow logic. LOL) so we finally go "all in" and a potential true Ace, right when we gut our entire offense and rely on young unproven everyday players??? I would say if we are rebuilding, lets rebuild around speed, speed, speed!! Keep Buxton and pay him, you hope Lewis is MLB ready by the end of the year. In one of your proposed low ball fliers you target Jordyn Adams from the Angels. an dshoot for the moon and try and land either Padres CJ Abrams, or Trea Turner. BUT if we are to move Buxton we need significantly more than teh #76 overall prospect, Id work with the Evil Empire and look to get Jasson Dominguez.