Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Butera.jpg On Thursday the Minnesota Twins and catcher Drew Butera avoided arbitration and agreed to a one-year, $700,000 contract, an almost assured sign that Butera will be on the roster as the team’s third backstop. Why, you ask, might the Twins invest almost a million dollars in a player who is completely expendable as the epitome of a replacement level player? Consider this: Over the past three years Butera’s OPS (.497 OPS) has been the worst in the American League and the second worst in all of baseball.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Only the Giants’ Emmanuel Burriss has had an OPS lower than Butera. This, for all intents and purposes, should be the definition of replaceable. Almost all of the rational for his retention revolves around his defensive prowess. In fact, Googling “Drew Butera” and “Defensive Prowess” pings back numerous articles using that phrase to describe him. Much like focusing on someone’s “good personality” to conceal other glaring flaws (i.e. nasty body odor, operates a baseball blog, etc), “defensive prowess” feels like a similar smokescreen to avoid stating the obvious about his bat. But how “prow” is his defense? This question is harder to answer as there is no definite measurement or widely available statistic that accurately portrays a catcher’s value based on things like game-calling, framing and/or controlling the run game. One can look at a stat like caught stealing but that tells as much of a story of a catcher’s skill has fielding percentage does a shortstop or outfield assists speak towards a right fielder. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast – now an analyst for the Houston Astros – showed the baseball world just how much value could be placed on a catcher’s framing ability. By his methods, having a catcher who can coax out a borderline strike could save 15-20 runs per season – the equivalent of one or two wins. Conversely, a bad catcher could cost their team the same amount of runs. Of course, while this data is fascinating, it is something that has not been automated by any sites to make this information publicly available so we do not know if Butera’s technique save or cost the Twins runs. One thing we do know is that Butera has a strong track record of throwing runners out. In 2011, possibly because of Carl Pavano’s disregard for the run game, the Twins paired him with Butera who has show a propensity to cutting down base-runners in his minor league career. According to his Baseball-Reference.com stats, between 2005 and 2011, he nabbed 42% of all would-be thieves. This past year, his caught stealing rate plummeted and he managed to throw out just four on the bases. In George Will’s Men At Work -- an examination of some of the game’s finer points through the eyes of the best players at the time -- teams will track a catcher’s catch-and-release time which is dubbed “pop-to-pop” time. Pop-to-pop time is a measurement used by coaches to separate good catcher arms from bad ones. This means they are stopwatching from the moment the ball hits the catcher’s glove until it smacks the middle infielder’s mitt. In the book, an unnamed coach rattles off pop-to-pop times. 1.94 seconds: Good. 2.12: That base is good as gone. 2.04: M’eh. 1.85: Nailed ‘em. Overall, the difference between being ninety feet closer to scoring a run or gaining an out is approximately one-hundredth of a second. Naturally, the ability to throw runners out is tied to the pitcher keeping the runner from breaking early. This brings me to the Twins’ trio of backstops. While theft is a shared liability with the battery mate, having a pitching staff that has total disregard for the running game reduces the effectiveness of a defensive catcher. The 2012 Twins were labeled as one of the worst at base-runner attentiveness. That said, Butera’s ability to catch and release provided this staff with the best odds of thwarting larceny. Download attachment: Catchers.PNG In an inexact study, a stopwatch has shown that over the course of five throws to second, Butera’s “pop-to-pop” time averages out to be the best: So Butera has a better arm or better footwork or a quicker release than the other two, at least in this small sample. Observationally, Butera was able to make these quick throws while handling sliders down and away on at least two of those five examples. This should not go ignored. Over the entire season, Baseball Info Solution has assigned a value on a catcher’s ability to subdue the run game. Of the Twins’ three, Butera (0) outperforms both Mauer (-3) and Doumit (-1). So, strictly speaking controlling the run game, Butera’s effect on the overall team’s performances is slightly better than Mauer and Doumit’s but minimal according to BIS. This begs the question, is being able to control the run game worth paying nearly a million for a third catcher? Someday we may have the tools to be better equipped to answer that question. For now, the Twins are committed to bringing him back – for better or worse. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Blackburn.jpg Twins announce that they will outright Nick Blackburn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka off the 40-man roster. Since being recalled from Rochester, Blackburn had made six starts only to compile a 0-4 record with an pear-shaped 6.11 ERA while opponents hit .351/.367/.576. The Twins, who had beat the drums that there would be no more "scholarships" for their players, reacted swiftly to Blackburn's struggles and recent quotes which seems to irk the front office. Clearly the Twins were not sold on Blackburn's ability to bounce back. As assistant GM Rob Antony told reporters on Saturday in Seattle: Nishioka, meanwhile, had been hitting .252/.311/.313 in the International League and was completely overmatched in his short stint with the Twins this year. The move leaves the team with 38 players on their 40-man roster. Please add comments on this story on this original thread. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Matt-Capps.jpg The Twins have reinstated reliever Matt Capps from the 15-day disabled list. Capps was placed on the disabled list on June 25 (retroactive to June 24) with right shoulder inflammation. In his two outings with the Fort Myers Miracle Capps worked two innings while striking out one against Florida State League competition. To clear room, the Twins have optioned reliever Kyle Waldrop to Rochester. In Capps' absence, the Twins have used Glen Perkins and Jared Burton as the team's closers. Perkins worked nine innings, striking out eight and walking just one while converting four of five save opportunities. Burton pitched 8.2 innings while posting a 6/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while converting on both of his save opportunities. With Capps back in the fold, Burton and Perkins may return to their previous set-up roles. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mccarthy.jpg Over in Indian Wells, California baseball’s head honchos are engaged in debates regarding rule changes, safety regulations and Ken Rosenthal’s choice of bow ties. In between that and the golfing, teams have been aggressive in their pursuits for available talent. “I’ve been in this business 21 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it,” said pitcher Anibal Sanchez’s agent, Gene Mato of SFX. “This is moving really, really fast.” Even the Twins appear fairly active – at least if you are basing that on their “interest” list. So far, most of the reports emerging from the meetings demonstrated that the Twins are serious about fixing their starting rotation. Yesterday, John Bonnes discussed the potential starting pitching trade options for the Twins, highlighting the Rays and Braves in particular, and Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported that the Twins and Mariners were talking swap. Now, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson compiled an interesting list of players the Twins have had contact with: Brandon McCarthy: Prior to catching on with the A’s, McCarthy was destined to be a flame-out prospect after several seasons with the White Sox and Rangers. If it were not for the early-career arm injuries, McCarthy may never have changed his mechanics which may never have led to the increase in ground balls. He does not miss a ton of bats, but he avoids heavy contact and has kept his home run rate subdued (part of that may have to do with pitching in Oakland). The downside is, with the extensive injury history and the recent blow to the head off the bat of the Erick Aybar, McCarthy has not thrown that many innings raising the question of whether or not he would be able to give a team 30-plus starts. In addition to the Twins, the Cubs are courting the right-hander. Anibal Sanchez: As Wolfson’s source indicated, Sanchez’s asking price may preclude the Twins from actually engaging in serious talks. It was reported last night that the 28-year-old right-hander is seeking a six-year, $90 million deal. Considering that Sanchez is likely the second-best free agent option on the market aside from Zack Greinke and that he is under 30-years-old, there is a strong probability that he could command that kind of cheddar. Ryan Dempster: Reported yesterday by Wolfson, the Twins “inquired” on this 35-year-old free agent. But so too have the Red Sox and now the Milwaukee Brewers. Dempster had success as both a closer and starter for some terrible Cubs teams, and had averaged 206 innings as a starter from 2008 to 2011. In fact, since 2008, he’s had the exact same expected fielding independent pitching number as Jake Peavy (3.73) and has been slightly better in that department than Anibal Sanchez (3.80). Of course, that doesn’t mean he will continue on that path. This past year, he struggled a bit in Texas and has had his velocity drop to sub-90 this year (not a good indicator in the mid-30s). On a one or possibly a two-year deal, Dempster could be an effective addition for Minnesota. Brett Myers: Working on a budget with numerous holes to plug, Terry Ryan will undoubtedly have to get creative in how to get the most out of their available payroll. With that in mind, targeting Brett Myers makes sense. After two consecutive years throwing over 200 innings with the Astros, Houston decided to convert him into a closer. Following a trade to the White Sox Myers, now a free agent, has interest in becoming either a starter or reliever. In terms of performance, Myers has been the archetypical Twins starter: Gets strike one (career 61% first-pitch strike rate), limits walks (career 8% walk rate), is not a strikeout pitcher (at least as a starter). This probably isn’t sexy but he’s done well and, if capable of hitting the 200 innings milestone, he would be a decent number four option in the rotation. Brandon Webb: This falls under the “leave no stone unturned” category. Webb has thrown only 12 real innings since 2009 and that was in the Texas League (AA) in 2011. His shoulder has simply not responded well since his 2009 rotator cuff surgery and that necessitated a second surgery in 2011. Since then, there has been no reports of Webb’s throwing status but considering the surgery was over a year ago, there should be some indication of where he is at velocity-wise. The odds are long but if this former Cy Young winner gets an spring invite and has rediscovered something, who knows. The Twins may ultimately leave California without any new additions to the rotation but obviously the groundwork has been laid. And, as it is rumored, the moves could happen quickly. Stay tuned. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Fien.jpg The Minnesota Twins have excelled in certain areas of team-building. While they may be light years behind in developing starting pitchers, their ability to identify inexpensive bullpen talent has been impressive. Casey Fien is one such find.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For less than a million dollars of salary the 29-year-old right-hander has provided the team with over $7 million of production value, according to Fangraphs.com’s valuation. That is a significant contribution from a pitcher who was on the verge of being organizational flotsam. Had the Twins not picked him up in 2012, Fien knows it is possible that he would still be shuffling between different clubs’ Triple-A affiliates. He also acknowledges that if it were not for the Twins, he might not be the pitcher he is today. In his life before professional baseball, Fien had already lived a fairly nomadic existence. After high school, the right-hander bounced around to three different colleges: William Penn University in Oskaloosa, Iowa, Golden West College in Huntington Beach, California and finally, he graduated from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. In 2006, with a small farming community worth of ballplayers selected before him, the Tigers tapped him with pick number five-hundred and ninety-two. Being selected twenty rounds deep in the major league draft does not assure anything. Unless you are a stud high school prospect with college as leverage, draftees rarely make enough to finance a used Honda Accord with their bonus money. The road to the majors is filled with plenty of detours – and Fien’s path is an example of that. Following a seven-year stint in Detroit’s organization, with ten appearances at the major league level scattered between 2009 and 2010 (a season which began in March with him being waiver-claimed by Boston, and then by Toronto, before returning to Detroit fewer than twenty days later), Fien spent 2011 with the Houston Astros. In August, minor elbow strain eventually led that club to cut ties with him in. After a winter in the Mexican Leagues, the Twins extended him a minor league contract in January 2012. It was not as if Fien lacked the tools to succeed. After all, he had a mid-90s fastball and above average secondary pitches. Something needed to happen. It was then, in the Minnesota Twins organization, that it all clicked. “That’s a good way to put it,” said Fien. “It just started clicking for me. I started throwing everything for strikes and once you can start someone off-speed and then locate your fastball, from then on out it’s your game, not their game.” In a late season call-up, Fien had a 2.06 ERA, the second-lowest among rookies to throw 35 innings or more. Did a change in his approach help him succeed that year? “I wouldn’t say ‘change it’,” said Fien, “it was more of ‘focusing on what you need to work on’.” And helping him focus on what he needed to work on was Rochester’s trio of instructors. “The pitching coaches up and down the lineup, they tell you what you need to work on, how to get to the big leagues. Last year, I had two great coaches. I had Bobby [Cuellar], who’s in the bullpen now, and I also had [Rochester manager] Gene Glynn, who was a great person to talk to. And Bruno [Tom Brunansky], Bruno was a guy who I would go to and ask ‘what do I need to do to get these hitters out?’” The 29-year-old California native may have a warm demeanor with a friendly smile in the clubhouse, but out on the mound he clearly has ice water in his veins. Fien says this was not always the case: in previous years he was simply trying to throw strikes instead of pitching. The lessons and skills learned during his stint Rochester in 2012 helped turn him into a reliable late innings reliever, and over the last month he is being used more frequently in high leverage situations as Jared Burton has struggled. Moreover, in the first half of the season his services have been requested with numerous runners on base - 30 to be exact- which is the seventh highest in the American League. That is a significant undertaking and vote of confidence by the manager considering he allowed 11 of his 25 inherited runners to score last year. To his credit, Fien has allowed just four to score, or 13%, a minuscule rate when compared to the league average of 32%. Small sample size notwithstanding, he has clamped down when he needed the final out of an inning, particularly when a runner was in scoring position. According to his splits at Baseball-Reference.com, opponents are 0-for-18 with two outs and have a runner on second or third. In April, Fien told reporters that in those RISP situations, he uses the hitters’ aggressiveness against them. As hitters begin to smell those RBIs, they tend to expand the zone in an effort to drive in those runners. Using a running cutter/slider, Fien has been able to move his pitches from one side of the strike zone to well off the plate on the other side, leaving hitters completely incapacitated. How impressive has his cutter been? If you search Fangraphs.com’s pitch value leaderboard, Fien’s 8.8 runs above average falls within the top five of qualified relievers, one slot ahead of Mariano Rivera, whose cutter has elevated him to legendary status. Matching Rivera's approach with this stuff is a surefire method for keeping yourself in the big leagues. “Getting confidence and sticking with your game plan,” Fien says, revealing his secret recipe for success. “Because once you try to do something that you are not supposed to…young guys, when they get here, they try to do too much. You just have to find your niche, your comfort zone.” Click here to view the article

Yesterday, the Twins traded a known commodity in center fielder Denard Span for the potential of right-hander Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-9, hard-throwing and former first round pick with talents that have impressed prospect pundits. While the Nationals get immediately better, the Twins will have to wait to see if Meyer’s talent pans out. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Here’s what we know about Meyer: He can throw in the upper 90s (ooh!) coupled with a devastating breaking pitch (ahh!) and is really super tall (whoa!). Do those three things make him destined for baseball immortality? Not necessarily, after all, two of those three things could have been said about former Twin Jim Hoey. So what makes Meyer so promising to the Twins? Off the bat, well, he misses bats - something that has been sorely lacking among the system’s talent. In first professional season, Meyer struck out 26.6% of all batters faced. Comparatively, the starter to throw over 100 innings with the closest strikeout rate within the Twins organization was Liam Hendriks with a 19.9% strikeout rate. When opponents do make contact, they have mainly put the ball in play on the ground. With a ground ball rate over 50% split between two levels, Meyer has proven that his pitches are difficult to square up. Although grounder rates typically decline some as a pitcher advances up the ladder, Meyer’s current rate is impressive and a good starting point. Because of his Futures Game outing, albeit a brief, six-pitch endeavor, we have a glance at what sort of action he has on his pitches thanks to the magic of pitch f/x cameras. The first thing that sticks out is his release point. Naturally, with a big frame at 6-foot-9, you would expect that he would have an equally impressive release point. Unlike fellow vertically imposing hurlers like Jon Rauch (6-foot-11), Meyer does not have a release point that extends above his height limit. Rauch’s fastball release point has averaged 7.1 feet above the ground (remember, pitch f/x captures the “release point” a foot and change after a pitcher lets go of the ball). By comparison, the pitch f/x camera’s that night in Kauffman Stadium said that Meyer’s fastball was being released at 6.6 feet on average - slightly below his overall height. This means Meyer is coming from a three-quarter slot rather than over-the-top arm action. In this screen grab captures from Mike Newman’s scouting video, you can see where Meyer’s release point is: https://lh4.googleus...On-ICJMCNIYA7JM During his Futures Game outing, BrooksBaseball.net says that Meyer’s no-seam fastball, a pitch he threw four of the six times, averaged 99 miles an hour with glove-side run. Obviously when you are throwing cheddar at 95+ as a starter, the movement is not exactly the focal point that the hitter is grumbling about as he walks back to the dugout. Still, it is noteworthy that Meyer has some very good run on his fastball nonetheless. If you don’t have movement, you end up like Jim Hoey’s fastball which major league opponents can catch up to, In describing this no-seam pitch, Meyer told MiLB.com’s Andrew Pentis that in college he had thrown a straight four-seam fastball but discovered that he actually threw his “no-seam” fastball -- a two-seam grip in which he positions his fingers closer together off of the seams -- harder than his four-seamer with the added bonus of movement. Combined with his three-quarters release point, this pitch will demonstrate plenty of run. So, if a hitter actually is able to catch up to this 99er, it is also running either into (if right-handed) or away from (if left-handed) and making it that much more difficult to square up. This is part of the reason why he has been able to generate ground balls in over 50% of balls put into play. This particular clip of his fastball, captured during a bullpen session while in the South Atlantic League by the aforementioned Newman, shows how his fastball runs down and into right-handers: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354284175_Meyer2.gif What you also see is his ability to dial it up to another level: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Meyer.gif Meyer’s fastball does not end up at the catcher’s target (down in the zone) but rather finishes up in the zone. To me, this is reminiscent of some of Justin Verlander’s fastballs. Watching Verlander the years, you see his catcher call for something lower and then have the right-hander simply overpower you with a high fastball. What makes him more than just a one-trick pony is his devastating knuckle curve he mixes in. While some outlets will frequently refer to this pitch as a “slider” - mostly because it is thrown with a hard velocity and has a sharp, downward break - Meyer actually grips this pitch with a fingernail dug into the horseshoe-shaped part of the ball. As he describes to Pentis: Here is Meyer’s knuckle curve grip during the Futures Game. Note the positioning of his index finger: https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/LYCEhzKlsXtIcazFLUpw8S8bFxjcL_-x2nq6H7VTlh1yjZyyEFGta3PF1MvTyMfiqtTf9cBxtsuj7YR570ke-BpBRVPbtEFbcT_f3MGHewfVsiEJm1A This downward action created by the grip has caused plenty of swing-and-misses and was rated by Baseball America as the best slider in the Nationals’ organization. While it is absolute filth at times, some of his unstable mechanics, an issue with taller pitchers, caused some problems this pitch. During his outing this summer, Newman noted that: In addition to his knuckle curve, Meyer is developing a change-up which he admits does not have the overall feel for but is working hard on perfecting that pitch. At the very least, the change in velocity -- from the upper 90s to the upper 80s -- gives the opponents something to think about. However, if Meyer is going to progress to the point of being a front-of-the-rotation starter, he will need to have that all-important third pitch. Otherwise his two-pitch fastball-knuckle curve combination has reliever written all over it. It’s long been said that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Some flame out, some get hurt and some never adapt. In Meyer’s case, injury is not out of the question, but his skill set is very strong. The Twins organization’s coaches and instructors -- likely those in New Britain -- will be tasked with refining his mechanics and instilling some consistency in them as well as finalizing his change-up in order to maximize his potential as a starter. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: MornieWillingham.jpg On Tuesday night the Minnesota Twins were mounting an assault in the eighth inning on Phillies reliever Mike Adams. Having just relinquished the tying run the half-inning prior, the Twins had runners on the corners and one out. The Outfield’s “Your Love” blasted over Target Field’s sound system indicating that Josh Willingham would be arriving to the plate. Adams, however, was able to get Willingham to pop out in foul territory for the second out. This brought Justin Morneau to the plate with. The Phillies countered with the left-handed Antonio Bastardo. Morneau fouled off four tough pitches before he laced a line drive to center to score Jamey Carroll, giving the Twins the lead which would later be preserved by Glen Perkins in the ninth. In a nutshell, this highlights the major difference between the team’s two more prominent bats in the middle of the lineup. Willingham, who leads the team with 10 home runs, has seen his overall batting average slip to .214 and has hit .212 in 65 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Morneau, who has not homered since April 28, has been able to find other ways to drive in runs when needed and has provided a .359 batting average in his 78 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Willingham’s power has still been a major factor in the lineup but his inability to keep the ball on the ground and reach safely has decreased his potency. His pop- out to third base on Tuesday was a prime example of his struggles. Equipped with a significant upper-cut swing which helped him take to the skies and jack 35 home runs last year, this same swing has been a detriment to him this year. According to Fangraphs.com, Willingham has hit 70 fly balls and 17 of those have not left the infield. That 24.3% infield fly ball rate is second in all baseball -- behind only Atlanta’s BJ Upton (who is currently impressing his new team with a .161 average) -- and well above his career rate of 13%. This is the main reason his batting average on balls in play has dropped to a career-low .258. Willingham recently told the Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman that: Judging by his splits, Willingham is actually performing better in counts in which he is ahead in the count this year in comparison to last year: This year he’s batting .273/.500/.545 compared to .244/.473/.494. Where he is experiencing the most decline is in even counts (first pitch, 1-1, 2-2): In 2011, he hit a robust .284/.308/.607 with 17 of his 35 home runs. This year it’s down to .227/.292/.485 and 5 dingers. A cursory search at TexasLeaguers.com’s PitchF/X tool shows that Willingham has seen some of the cherry pitches disappear from a year ago as opponents have adjusted. In the 1-1 counts last year, Willingham saw 40% fastballs. It is down to 30% this year. In 2-2 counts, his slider percentage when up from 20% to 28%. This shows that teams are approaching Willingham slightly differently and this may be the cause of his high percentage of infield flies. While Willingham is having problems lofting balls out of the infield, Morneau is unable to lose them over the fence. Like Willingham, Morneau has also hit 70 fly balls this season yet only two have had enough distance so he could jog around all the bases. Morneau’s home runs-to-fly balls rate is at a career-low 2.9%. To put that into context, the 2.9% rate is the 11th-lowest in the majors, squeezing the one-time slugger in between such power threats as Juan Pierre (2.3%) and Marco Scutero (3.3%). Morneau seems flummoxed by this development. In his conversation with Star Tribune’s Jim Souhan Morneau said that he’s doing everything he had in past years but the results are not showing. But will they turn into homers? There could be dozens of factors playing into Morneau’s lack of home runs. Mechanics, injury and age could all be contributors. Mechanically, he’s flying open more than he had in past seasons, which may limit his able to drive the ball that is down in the zone that he had once demolished regularly. Take a look as his home runs by location since 2008: Download attachment: Morneau_HRS_career.PNG He was able to launch plenty of home runs on pitches down the middle and middle-low. If a hitter is flying open, that pitch becomes increasingly difficult to drive. Now, the only two home runs he has this year have come on pitches on the inside and out of the zone – a spot easier to drive if a hitter is flying open: Download attachment: Morneau_HRS_2013.PNG Beyond that, Morneau’s average distance on his fly balls is down considerably too. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, from 2010 to 2012, he averaged 278 feet per fly ball. That’s down to 260 this year. Additionally, the speed with which the ball leaves his bat is also down. The extremely small sample size notwithstanding, HitTrackerOnline.com says Morneau’s two home runs averaged an exit speed of 101.4 miles per hour whereas it was 104.4 in 2012, 102.4 in 2011 and 104.9 in 2010. At this rate, if the average speed off of the bat decline is any indication, it seems difficult to believe that Morneau is “just missing” and that there is something else behind his power outage. The Twins' tandem in the heart of the order are both having down years for separate reasons. Both, too, are potential trade candidates at the deadline. However, at this pace, the return for either would be quite underwhelming unless they are able to increase their production soon. Click here to view the article

Buyers or Sellers? Admit it. You kind of forgot about the Padres all tucked away down there in the National League West, playing games that finish well past your bedtime and having a generally overall boring team. Does Trevor Hoffman still play for them? No? Oh, well, who cares, they still serve fantastic fish tacos there. This year’s model is much like the past several: not competitive. Currently ten games below .500 and “just” six-and-a-half games out of first, the Friars don’t [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]have the firepower to compete with the free-spending Dodgers or the savvy and youthful Diamondbacks and Rockies. Normally this would mean they would be sellers but they do not have much to offer as they have moved most of their major league chips in recent seasons. In fact, their current payroll is just $13M higher than what it was in 2000 – when they didn’t have a new stadium and finished dead last. If they sell, it won’t be much. Chase Headley is their big ticket item but all signs point to them retaining him. They may unload pitchers like Jason Marquis, Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez or reliever Luke Gregerson. Here’s the thing: They are not acting as sellers. They have reportedly been scouting top flight starting pitching. Could they possibly be buying? Download attachment: san-diego-padres.jpg What They Need? A front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Following in the footsteps of Joe Wieland, Casey Kelly, the prized prospect received in the Adrian Gonzalez trade with Boston, had Tommy John surgery in March and will be out of action for quite some time. Based on his pedigree, he was supposed to be the anchor for years to come. Now, the rotation is led by Twins’ castoff Jason Marquis, who has done quite well for himself in San Diego, and 33-year-old Eric Stultz. Rumors circulated that the Padres tried to acquire Jake Arrieta from the Orioles before the Cubs packaged Scott Feldman for him. They also tried for Ricky Nolasco before the Dodgers netted him. According the MLBTradeRumors.com, the Padres have had scouts keeping an eye on Matt Garza who may still be available – but at a steep price. The Padres system, however, had a pre-season ranking of fourth overall, so there are plenty of young trading chips if need be. What Might Work With the Twins? Eh…not much. After all, the Padres’ biggest need (starting pitching) is also the Twins' biggest need. It’s hard to see these two teams finding a match. While the Twins are holding on to back-of-the-rotation starters like Mike Pelfrey, who might help a contender add depth to the rotation through the regular season, the Padres likely have no use for that. Based on their scouting wish list (Garza, Nolasco) they are thinking big. (Although, I once test drove a Ferrari with absolutely no possibility of ever purchasing it.) What else? The Padres have experienced Kevin Correia once so it is hard to see them trying to make a move for him. Huston Street, the one-time lights-out closer for the Rockies and A’s, has fallen on hard times in San Diego. While he isn’t a disaster, his strikeout rate has taken a substantial dip as his velocity has decreased to the upper-80s and his once potent slider is no longer the bat-misser it was. If they get overzealous, they may be interested in an arm like Glen Perkins or Jared Burton to improve their ‘pen. Overall, there may be possibilities of a minor move but these two franchises are too simpatico for the pair to be viable trade partners. Sleeper Trades Robbie Erlin – LHP – Triple-A -- 22-years-old A third-round pick by the Texas Rangers in 2009, the left-handed Erlin came over to the Padres along with Joe Wieland in the Mike Adams trade. With command and guile over raw stuff, Erlin is very much a Twins-type pitcher (read: sub-90 velocity) though he does have a good breaking ball. He has a few MLB innings under his belt. Keyvius Sampson – RHP – Triple-A -- 22-years-old Selected a round later than Erlin in 2009, the Padres landed the slight-framed Sampson (six-foot-nothing, 185 pounds) out of a Florida high school. Baseball America was impressed by his secondary stuff – namely his curveball and change – but his consistency has not been terrific as he has averaged four walks per nine innings pitched in five minor league seasons. Adys Portillo – RHP – Low-A – 21 years old Like a vast majority of the Padres’ pitching prospects, Portillo has spent a lot of 2013 injured. His injury, however, isn’t nearly as significant as Kelly;s or Wieland’s UCL tears. Still, Baseball America rated Portillo’s fastball as his best asset as well as the best in the system so a lat/tricep injury may affect the velocity. Like many young hard-throwing hurlers, Portillo’s command needs work (over five walks per nine innings); last year this resulted in a demotion to High-A from AA. Dream Target Max Fried – LHP – Low-A – 19 years old Unless the Padres are more desperate for Perkins than a group of drunken college kids at 2 AM, then there is likely no way the Twins could get Fried. In fact, the Padres would have to be a bunch of drunken college kids to swap a potential number one starter for a closer. Still, we can dream, can’t we? Prospectphiles may have heard Fried’s name in combination with Lucas Giolito, giving Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles an amazing one-two punch. Drafted seventh overall by the Padres in 2012, this six-foot-four lefty is currently chopping up the competition in the Midwest League, striking out 22.3% of hitters faced. His 57% ground ball rate is in the league’s top ten but his weak spot right now is the walks – the 11.5% walk rate places him fourth in the league right behind the Twins’ Hudson Boyd. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Doumit.jpg When the Twins signed Ryan Doumit, they gained a switch-hitter who had a moderate level of pop and decent batting average ability thanks to a high line drive rate. What they did not necessarily sign was a patient hitter who has been able to coax walks. The former Pittsburgh Pirate has held a 6.8% walk rate for his career, a mark that is slightly below the average of 8%. However, this spring, bolstered by nine walks in 54 plate appearances, Doumit has turned in a 15% walk rate. Could Doumit have turned a corner in his career? Has he added another dimension to his offensive game? Maybe this is a step forward for Doumit. While we should never base anything on a sampling of 50 plate appearances, who’s to say that the switch-hitter has not honed his strike zone judgment or made a concerted effort to improve his discipline? Interestingly enough, Doumit’s plate discipline numbers from a year ago paint a story of a hitter who has been scrutinizing pitches more. According to Fangraphs.com, prior to the 2011 season, Doumit had an out-of-zone swing rate of over 32% in each of the previous three seasons, a rate well above the average. This past season, he whittled that down to 26%, which was below the average. So it is possible that the walks amassed in Florida are the fruits of his labors that he implemented in 2011 but it seems unlikely. This is spring training. It is chock full of erratic pitchers, minor league arms who may be intimidated of major leaguers and those who are just “working on things”. Doumit’s sudden spike in a little over 50 plate appearances has little or no statistical bearings on his future production. After all, players have monster springs more often than not regress to their true levels. Consider this: a year ago, Jason Repko drew a team-high 10 walks in Grapefruit League action – a whopping 15% walk rate for the fourth outfielder. When the regular season rolled around and those pitchers who lack command were vetted, Repko’s walk rate came crashing back down to earth, finishing the year with a 4.2% walk rate over his 144 plate appearances. What’s more is that there are not a lot of hitters who have had a sudden and sustained walk rate spike in the middle of their careers. The Oakland A’s Moneyball philosophy was to draft patient hitters because they could “teach” power (or inject them with steroids or whatever) but they could not teach discipline. Doumit, while sporting an 8% walk rate in the minors, is unlikely to have his numbers transform radically this late in his career. So, will Doumit’s spring patience carry into the regular season? It’s improbable, but not impossible. In the end, he likely finishes the year with a walk rate close to his career average of 7%. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Joe Mauer.jpg Baseball America has released their MLB Best Tools 2013 report, providing the top three players at certain skill sets (i.e. Best Hitter, Best Power, Best Strike-Zone Judgment, etc) as determined by a poll of major league managers. Not surprising, the Minnesota Twins have little of representation this year. Only Joe Mauer and Jamey Carroll showed up on the list.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Mauer was lauded as the second-best player in Strike-Zone Judgment and the third-best Hitter, third-best Defensive Catcher. Carroll, meanwhile, was selected as the second-best Hit-and-Run Artist in the American League. A smattering of ex-Twins also showed up on the list, including Jesse Crain (as the second-best reliever in the AL), J.J. Hardy (who was voted the best Defensive Shortstop in the AL), and Carlos Gomez (who was deemed the best Defensive Center fielder in the National League). In Baseball America’s minor league skill rankings, the Twins have numerous players lauded as having the best skills in their respective leagues: Low-A (Midwest League): Best Batting Prospect (Byron Buxton), Best Power Prospect (Adam Brett Walker), Best Defensive 2B (Jorge Polanco), Best Defensive OF (Buxton), Most Exciting Player (Buxton) and Best Manager Prospect (Jake Mauer). High-A (Florida State League): Best Batting Prospect (Miguel Sano), Best Power Prospect (Sano), Fastest Baserunner (Buxton), Best Defensive OF (Buxton), Most Exciting Player (Sano). Double-A (Eastern League): Best Power Prospect (Sano), Best Strike-Zone Judgment (Pinto), Best Defensive SS (Danny Santana) and Best Infield Arm (Sano). Triple-A (International League): None. The two things that stick out about this list is while there is a decent amount of minor league Twins players included, they are (1) low in the system and (2) all position players. This will be a factor as the organization struggles to produce high-quality starting pitchers. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg Last night Justin Morneau hit multiple home runs in a game for the third time this season. As impressive as that is, the most noteworthy aspect about that feat is that the Twins first baseman hit both of those off of curve balls – something that he had done only once since 2010. Heading into Monday’s game against the Indians, Morneau’s numbers against curves had been very underwhelming. According to Fangraphs.com, his Pitch Value on curveballs had been 5.7 runs BELOW average – making it the third worst output against benders in all of baseball. But now, after two home runs off of uncle charlies from Zack McAllister and Josh Tomlin, Morneau is looking tougher to retire on that pitch. Why is this significant to his progress? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As I wrote about in May, teams had exploited Morneau’s tendency to jump the gun with his swing with a high percentage of curve balls. While he was opening up his front side drastically, opponents who simple throw him a wrinkle. Because he was firing open, the off-speed breaking stuff likely caused him to be too far out front to put a proper swing on the ball. Now, instead of pulling his front side out he has remained locked in on the ball – leading to better connectivity and punch on those pitches. And, because of that, he is hitting .360/.404/.590 since July 5 after going through a series of mechanical adjustments which seemingly have helped him stay back - from the start of the season until July 4, Morneau swung and missed at 14.1% of curves but that rate has dropped to 6.3% since then. In fact, his .415 weighted on-base average over the past 30 days is in the top ten among AL performs. It’s good to see Morneau crushing curve balls again and all pitching in general. As John Bonnes wrote about today, this performance (combined with his soon-to-be expiring contract and Chris Parmelee’s AAA outbreak) may make the 31-year-old attractive to the few clubs in the league who are in need of a high-priced first baseman. Click here to view the article

Joe Mauer’s 8 Balls-In-Play Have Been Grounders Download attachment: hit-chart.png So, yeah, infinitesimally small sample of eight plate appearances in which Joe Mauer has put the ball in play have resulted in grounders. One of those games was against Chris-Freaking-Sale who was so dominant against left-handed opponents that he only faced 163 in 2013 because no manager in his right mind would trot his lefties out there to spin holes in the batter’s box (Sale led the league with a .133 batting average against). With all that in mind, Mauer’s put eight balls in play, all have been on the ground, and (AND!) only one has been slashed the other way. ONE. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Could this be concussion-related/time-off/rust issues at the plate? Possibly, but again, CHRIS EFFIN SALE. Something to watch for over the next few games. More likely however, Mauer will revert back to his above-20% line drive clip while peppering left field with tons of balls soon enough. Glen Perkins Pumped Nothing But Gas Download attachment: pitch-movement.png In his first appearance of the season and since his new monolithic closer extension was signed, Glen Perkins... (wait for it) ...blew a save. Now, Perkins had help in the form of Trevor Plouffe’s errant throw to the plate but the usually lights-out closer did not appear to be his usual self. Perhaps it was the cold (pitchers struggle to find the grip on the ball in cold weather), working with a new catcher or possibly the start of the season but -- for whatever reason -- Perkins eschewed using his biting slider. Against the Sox, he threw 28 pitches with 24 of them being fastballs and one being a slider**. To their credit, the White Sox hitters jumped all over Perkins’ first-pitch fastballs that were in-zone and collected two of their three hits early in the count. It should be noted too that Perkins’ fastball velocity was down compared to last season’s average -- averaging 92.2 at the Cell yesterday. While he was a few clicks above that for the year in 2013, his first outing of the year he was averaging 92.4. Probably nothing to worry about. **This means either those pitches were not identified or some glitch in the system. BrooksBaseball.net says he threw 25 total pitches -- 24 fastballs and one slider. Hot Start For Aaron Hicks Download attachment: strike-zone.png Last year’s start for Hicks was more frigid than the Minnesota temps. This year, however, he’s already collected four hits. Sample size notwithstanding, what is impressive about Hicks this season is that he has a strong two-strike approach that did not exist at this point (and longer) in his rookie year. In six of his plate appearances so far in two-strike situations, he has collected two of his four hits while putting a third ball in play. Through two games last year, he had seven two-strike scenarios and struck out five times and put the ball into play just once. What you can see in the heat map is that Hicks has taken advantage of pitcher’s up-in-the-zone mistakes in two-strike counts. Are we witnessing a maturing Aaron Hicks who is going to battle with a game plan this year? Download attachment: USATSI_7847043.jpg All charts and data is provided by ESPN Stats & Info Click here to view the article

According to Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN.com, the Twins have been in contact with a potential bullpen arm: On paper, backend depth in the bullpen was supposed to be a strength for the 2011 Twins as they had Joe Nathan and Matt Capps in place to handle the 8th and 9th innings to shorten games. Of course, in reality, Nathan’s return from Tommy John surgery was predictably premature while Capps would labor through arm issues of his own, leaving the Twins short in late inning arms – particularly from the right side. Without question, the left-handed Glen Perkins filled the role admirably as the bridge to the closer, even holding righties to a bullpen-best .259 batting average against. Yet, the Twins struggled to find a suitable candidate to square off on tougher right-handed hitters – guys who could be counted on to defuse a late inning matchup with Paul Konerko or Miguel Cabrera. Over the course of the season, the team trotted out young arms in Alex Burnett (789 OPS vs RHB), Lester Oliveros (706 OPS), Esmerling Vasquez (606 OPS) and Kyle Waldrop (909 OPS). While the future may prove otherwise, based on their results none of those players seemed ready to handle more critical situations. As those pitchers get the opportunity to develop in less vital roles - perhaps eventually marrying the skill with their natural talent and ascending in the pecking order - the Twins would require a more stable, more consistent right-handed member of the bullpen. That’s where the 31-year-old Todd Coffey comes in. Undervalued for most of his career and, outside of his sprint in from the bullpen, Coffey has toiled away quietly in the National League, producing splits that would make blue states proud. Over his seven seasons, he has keep righties at bay at a much better rate than lefties (.265 RH avg vs .317 LH avg). That mark has improved in the past few seasons as well. Since 2009, he’s kept righties at a .222 average. While he had been given a more balanced workload in Milwaukee, facing righties and lefties a fairly equal amount, the Nationals played more to his strength by limited his engagements with wrong-handed hitters. This meant shorter outings and more selective appearances. It appears to be an ideal fit for the Twins – someone with late inning experience, who is tough on right-handed opponents and can be lifted easily for one of the plethora of southpaws in the ‘pen (Perkins or Brian Duensing). But, is Coffey as good as advertised? Interestingly, Coffey has seen his batted ball rates change significantly in the past three years. Early on in his career, Coffey was a ground-ball inducing machine, getting grounders well over 50% of the time. In 2010, that started to dip. Last year, his ground ball rate was at a career-low 43.6%. What appears to be responsible for the decline is how he deploys his slider. Prior to 2010, Coffey was mainly a fastball guy who occasionally mixed in his slider but in 2010, Coffey up his usage of the slider to the point where he nearly threw it as much as his fastball (likely in response to the higher amount of match-ups versus same-sided hitters). But it wasn’t just the amount that changed; it was how he threw the slider as well. In 2009, he would bury the slider underneath the zone, inciting any opponents who opted to chase after the pitch to go out of the strike zone to do so. Because of its trajectory and the fact that it was well underneath the hitting zone when it reached the plate, most hitters were forced to bat it into the ground or flail at it. Download attachment: Coffey_SlidervRHB_2009.jpg Download attachment: Coffey_Slider_09.jpg Meanwhile, starting in 2010, Coffey began to throw his slider more often for a strike. This meant in was in the zone more resulting in more contact and more elevation in said contact. Download attachment: Coffey_SlidervRHB_2011.jpg Download attachment: Coffey_Slider_11.jpg Along with the decrease in grounders, Coffey also witnessed righties hitting his offerings more solidly. According to Inside Edge’s Well Hit metric, in 2009, righties posted a .168 well-hit average. This past season, that number jumped to .221. In spite of that hard-hit rate, Coffey had a little help from his friends in the Nationals defense this year, helping convert 72.1% of balls in play into outs – also a career best. As mentioned before, Coffey has a decent fastball/slider combination that when thrown together in the right mix, he may be able to avoid getting squared up regularly. Ideally, if the Twins do sign him to subdue righties, they show him the difference in how his slider is performing and see if he can resurrected the ’09 version at Target Field. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg It was not more than a month or so ago that third baseman Trevor Plouffe was the hottest thing in the Twin Cities. Essentially, he was “Call Me Maybe” personified. Prior to taking a Luke Hochaver offering on the right thumb back on July 20, Plouffe was compiling decent number – including otherworldly stats in the power department such as 11 home runs in 26 games. However, since his return on August 20 he is now just 8-for-56 (.142) and has yet to hit for extra bases. The depressed performance has spurred a debate regarding Plouffe’s long-term starting viability and Twins GM Terry Ryan ‘challenged’ him to step up and win the starting third base job heading towards the season’s final month. Although his performance as of late has been lackluster, there are signs that this is just a temporary lull brought on by the extended time off and the injury to his thumb. For starters, his batted ball numbers have completely rearranged themselves since his hiatus. Since returning from the disabled list, the hitter who was once making it rain with fly balls at an over 50 percent as recently as the end of June, Plouffe has not elevated the ball recently and has seen his fly ball rate drop to 35 percent in August. While a reduction in flies has a tendency to whittle away one’s power numbers, the good news is that he’s actually hitting a higher percentage of line drives. Of course, the bad news is that those liners just are not becoming hits (as evidenced by his .142 average on the month). Then there is the fact that he’s seemed unbalanced when it comes to his pitch selection. Last night, after whiffing on Seattle Mariner Josh Kinney’s 79 mile per hour slurve, FSN analyst Roy Smalley remarked that “[He’s] out in front – badly – on a breaking ball. That’s an ‘I’m concerned about being beat on the fastball and I swing at the first thing I see.’” Though he is not necessarily getting beat outright on the slow stuff, Plouffe is swinging at more off-speed offerings since his return. For instance, heading into last night’s game Plouffe had swung at 13 of the 16 changeups (81%) he had seen. Before his injury, he was swinging at 41 of 82 (50%). This more or less speaks to Smalley’s critique and smacks of a hitter struggling with pitch recognition and leaving him with a swing that out in front of the pitch only to result in a weak grounder or infield pop-up (hence the decline in long fly balls). In theory, this will take some time getting re-acclimated to the competition. Finally, mechanically speaking, Plouffe is not turning his hips in the same violent manner in which he did while pulling the tar out of the ball in June and July. With the exception of the swing he put on Felix Hernandez’s fastball on Monday night, Plouffe’s swing system appears off-kilter -- likely due symptom of both timing and pitch recognition issues. Without the timely torque from his core, he has not been pulling the ball with as much vigor as he did pre-thumb injury. Ryan admitted that he may hold some blame for the numbers decline by not sending Plouffe out on a longer rehab assignment. After all, he only was granted two games and nine plate appearances in order to get by in the swing of things after missing time because of the bruised thumb. Ryan is correct in acknowledging that the Twins missed an opportunity to give Plouffe additional time to recalibrate prior to returning to the major league roster. What’s more is that this current output should not be entirely unexpected of Plouffe either. When he was sidelined throughout the majority of spring training he started the season extremely slow. In mid-May, he was hitting .133/.288/.217 and Ryan – at that time – went to the media to encourage his third baseman to step up. Plouffe responded and hit .296/.344/.618 with 18 home runs over his next 52 games. Plouffe has certainly not proven that he’s capable of providing sustained production for an entire season and that is cause of concern. Then again injuries have buttressed his season explaining why his offensive stats have been bookended by terrible numbers. Look for Plouffe to regain traction in September and reclaim his rightful place as the Twins starting third baseman in 2013. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg Following Monday’s 0-for-2 performance, lowering his spring batting average to .100, Justin Morneau addressed his struggles: "It's gotten better. It's not where I want it to be yet. The swing's getting better. The swing feels a lot better than it did when I first got down here. It's a process, it's moving along. I just have to keep telling myself that it's slow, and just because it's not here now doesn't mean it's not going to be here a week from now." Sound familiar? A year ago, Morneau was coming off a serious concussion injury and slowly easing back into the game in mid-March. For the majority of the time in Florida in 2011, he struggled. He failed to leave the yard in his 11 games and batted .152 but managed to knock a trifecta of doubles. Reflecting on his performance, told the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E Neal that his “timing is starting to come .” Despite his claim to the contrary, in the regular season Morneau’s timing never came. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As of this past Monday, his results have continued to plummet (down to .091 after yesterday’s 0-for-3 game), sending a ripple of concern through the Minnesota fan base that the timing may never come. For those looking for some reassurance, you can turn to the fact that it is hard to put too much stock into the small sample size that is spring training. Additionally, Morneau has never been a fast starter when it comes to spring training (dating back to 2006 and MLB.com’s statistical database). Perhaps the Canadians have a tough time adjusting to the Gulf Coast heat. With the exception of his 2009 spring in which he hit three home runs and slugged over .700, he has been somewhat of a disappointment each March. Nevertheless, he has still managed to come out and perform admireably once the calender flips to April. Take is 2010 spring for instance. That year he posted a batting average of .160 (albeit tagging three home runs). Even though he had what could be considered a slow start, he was blazing through the league, hitting .345/.437/.618 with 18 home runs prior to his run-in with John MacDonald’s knee. Morneau and the media on-lookers in Fort Myers are trying to sell hope. “It’s close” is the clear message. Back on March 16th Neal said in his blog that Morneau “swung the bat with murderous intentions tonight, which could be a sign that his timing is coming around to the point where he's comfortable with letting it fly.” Morneau told reporters after Monday’s game that “I think I've just kind of let it fly and hit some balls hard - hit some balls hard at people, hit some balls hard foul. I guess that's a pretty good sign. Especially yesterday, I pulled the ball foul. I hadn't done that in a long time." Likewise, following yesterday’s contest, 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey described Morneau’s outs as “scalded” and hit “hard.” These are positive signs, are they not? After all, hard hit balls eventually turn into hits. Then again, while that sounds comforting, this has been a historically bad spring output for the first baseman. He has never not hit an extra base hit in spring training. He has never had a sub-.100 batting average. What’s more, he has never had to recover from a concussion, wrist surgery and pain in his neck, shoulder, knees and toes (knees and toes). If he was not be able to shake the concussion alone last year to regain his timing, what is to lead us to believe he will overcome all four ailments to rebound in 2012? Click here to view the article

The 2011 season was quite a mess for Francisco Liriano. Coming off the solid 2010 season, expectations had been high for the lefty and instead of moving forward he regressed heavily, turning in one of the worst seasons among qualified starters. Command-wise, his 12.7% walk rate was the highest among pitchers with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. According to a recent John Shipley article at the PiPress, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson offered up a cure for what he believes ails Liriano: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This is an interesting assessment because this is not the first time that getting Liriano to pitch more “downhill” as been brought up. Following his eight-inning, nine strikeout performance against the Texas Rangers on June 12 of last year, the MLB Network crew took the opportunity to dissect the difference between the early season Liriano – the one who had gone 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA with a 21/27 K/BB ratio in 35.2 innings combined in his first seven starts – to the one who had just obliterated the future AL Champions. What MLB analyst Mitch Williams noted was that Liriano had a tendency of not “staying behind his head”. The former closer described this as rushing throw his delivery and that he would peel off towards the third base line with his momentum – just like Anderson said. This, noted Williams, resulted in a decrease in control. Williams and his on-screen partner Dan Plesac also highlighted a key difference between his June 12 domination and a clip from a 2010 start against Baltimore: Liriano’s arm angle. Here you see the screenshot and notice the tilt variation between the still on the left (from 2010) to the one on the right (2011). Download attachment: Liriano_Release Points.jpg Williams said that Liriano’s 2011 angle was “much better” than his 2010 one and that gave him the ability to pitch “downhill.” Fangraphs.com’s Pitch F/X charts confirm that his arm was much more vertical on that day versus that of his 2010 outing against the Orioles:Download attachment: Liriano_Rangers.jpg Release point vs Rangers 2011 Download attachment: Liriano_Orioles.jpg Release point vs Orioles 2010 As we know by now, Liriano’s outing against Texas was not the pivotal turnaround moment that most hoped for (or that MLB Network predicted). Instead, he sputtered throughout the remainder of the season and walked 12% of batters faced. At some point during the early portion of the season, according to a source with the team, the Twins used visual aids supplied by the team’s videographer to show the left-hander how chaotic and random his release points had been at the season’s onset. Supposedly, they were working on getting Liriano to raise his release point. As Anderson mentioned to reporters, he feels that if Liriano stays “tall”, he will be able to create a better downward plane. Many people interpreted the Twins staff’s tinkering with Liriano in 2011 as a way to convert the strikeout pitcher into a finesse-type who pitches to contact. To which Anderson denies: Without question, Liriano has some inconsistent mechanics - he pulls off towards third, he short arms at times, his rushes through his delivery, he throws from various slots, etc – and you can understand why Rick Anderson is trying to iron him out. Anderson claims that the higher release point will get him to throw “downhill” more. Mitch Williams echoed that sentiment by saying the downward plane leads to a “fastball that explodes in the last four-to-five feet” and gets more drop on the slider. However, and with no disrespect to Mr. Anderson or Mr. Williams, but thus far the higher release point has seemingly done squat for Liriano. I understand that Rick Anderson has done wonders with plenty of pitchers but it is possible that what he describes as “his way” may not be the optimum position for Liriano. In 2010, according to pitch f/x charts Liriano’s release point appeared to be somewhere between 10 and 11 o’clock (a bit lower) while this past season he moved it up closer to 12 (a bit higher). In 2010, his fastball command was far superior and his slider showed more bite. This past season his exercised some of the worst command of a fastball among all qualified starters. Based on that alone, one may consider reverting back to the 2010 mechanics if, for nothing else, to rekindle that flame. In April of last season, I took a quick look at the difference between the 2010 and 2011 Liriano deliveries and found that in 2011 he was remaining tall (much like the Twins are encouraging him to do) but his follow-through lacked the same downward action that he showed in 2010. According to pitch f/x charts, it appeared that staying tall seemed to elevate his fastball. At that time, I figured the staff would try to get him to emulate his 2010 mechanics but it sounds like I was wrong. It is curious to me that instead of attempting to re-create the environment that propelled Liriano towards his second best season of his career, Anderson has been trying to mold him into pitching “his way” and throwing it “straight up” - a manner in which Liriano has struggled. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Nolasco.jpg On Tuesday afternoon the Minnesota Twins introduced the most expensive free agent in the organization’s history. Outside on the scoreboard, high above the team’s dormant field, a graphic splashed welcoming Ricky Nolasco to Twins Territory. At the press conference cameras rolled, questions were lobbed and Nolasco (with his impressively manicured beard) sat between general manager Terry Ryan and his agent, Matt Sosnick, having hopes pinned on him that he will help dig the franchise out from the bottom of the division. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] New uniform, smiles, handshakes, photo ops. Ryan spoke to Nolasco’s workhorse pedigree, his ability to miss bats and his character. His agent compared him to the muscle cars the pitcher loves to collect. Media members peppered him with inquiries ranging from his thoughts on the move to the American League to if the taste of the postseason with the Dodgers whet his appetite for more playoff action. When the song and dance ended, I tapped Nolasco for a quick sidebar on his pitching style. Based on research conducted at the beginning of the offseason, I asked Nolasco if his 2013 success coincided with his increased frequency of pitching inside to opponents. “I think it is a big part of any starting pitcher’s game,” Nolasco answer, reciting pitching wisdom imparted from grizzled pitching coaches to pitchers for generations. “I think you’ve got to pitch inside and open up the outside part of the plate for later on in the game. That’s always the process you want to do as a starting pitcher.” Hard in, soft away. Live to pitch another day. That is the mantra of pitchers everywhere since the dawn of the game. However, a few seasons ago Nolasco and his coaches with the Marlins noticed he had been drifting away from this technique and hitters were able to extend their arms, a sure sign that pitches were further off the hitter’s belt and more in the swing zone. That is when he made a minor change. Maybe it was simply intended to be a placebo effect to raise his awareness, but Nolasco, at the behest of his pitching coach, shifted a half-foot on the rubber toward the first base side. “One of my pitching coaches in Miami, Randy St. Clair, was the one who suggested it,” he offered. “Obviously it has been a big positive influence for me and my pitching style and a big change helping me get back to where I should be able to pitch numbers-wise.” The results were noticeable. From 2011 to July 2012, Nolasco held a 4.76 ERA with a hardy 1.40 WHIP. Following the change, he has had a 3.71 ERA with a tidier 1.23 WHIP. “[st. Clair] told me a lot of the times when I was getting in trouble and getting hit was when things were just barely coming back on the plate so he said that maybe if we move over six to eight inches on that side it that would prevent those two or three pitches that were hurting me a game, that would keep them out and away from the middle of the plate a little more. And he was right.” Indeed. Prior to last year’s trade deadline, Fangraph.com’s Jeff Sullivan showed visual evidence of Nolasco’s rubber shift with Pitch F/X graphs and screen grabs. In the span from 2011 to July 2012, Nolasco’s strikeout rate had fallen significantly to 16% and his well-hit average had jumped to .217. Post-shift, the strikeout rate climbed back to league-average (19%) and the well-hit average dropped to .173. It was like Nolasco was a new pitcher, or at the very least his pre-2011 self again. Perhaps the success goes back to working inside. According to ESPN Stats & Info, since August of 2012 he’s been able to lock in on the inner-half of the plate more with all his pitches. Between 2011 and July 2012, Nolasco’s pitches were hitting the inside portion of the zone just 23% of the time (compared to the 28% league average). Since? He’s been going inside at a 29% rate and the overall numbers are hard to argue with. Welcome to Minnesota Ricky. The weather’s about to get nasty. Remember to stay inside. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mlmdmainlogo.jpg Lily Rothman of Slate.com recently wrote a very interesting piece on the treatment of minor league baseball players and their plight to make ends meet. Rothman noted that these “hidden underclass of workers” make a salary comprising of $1,100 a month and receive that pay for only half the year. As opposed to their major league brethren, minor leaguers have little or no protection as a working class. There have been some players within the system who have championed for some labor changes. According to the article: The last player to talk seriously about minor-league unionization was Garrett Broshuis. In 2006, Broshuis was playing for the Connecticut Defenders, the AA affiliate of the San Francisco Giants. The pitcher, who was sharing an apartment with some teammates in a bad neighborhood in Norwich, Conn., got radicalized after an upstairs toilet clogged and flooded the place. “That was kind of the moment where I realized this isn’t really fair,” he remembers. “It’s not fair that I’m playing in front of seven or 8,000 people each night and making pennies.” Broshuis, who is a good follow on Twitter, tried to make some inroads with his fellow minor leaguers and convince them that unionizing was in their best interest. Nothing came of it. Things are even worse for the independent leaguers who do not have the incentive of being within a major league team’s system, you get little pay and no assurance that you may have a chance of reaching the next level: But there will always be players like Tom Zebroski, a 45th-round draft pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2010. As a first-year player, he made $1,100 a month before taxes, and his bonus wasn’t any bigger. Zebroski had promised himself he would never play in an independent league, with no direct route to the big leagues and even less money than you get in the minors. But when he got released by the Royals last year, Zebroski changed his mind. He decided to work in the offseason to save up for the chance to have a chance. “It's one of those things that, if you give it up before you're ready to, you'll be questioning yourself,” he says. “Like, what if I'd done this, what if I'd done that, what if I'd given it one more year?” He now plays for the Traverse City Beach Bums in the Frontier League, where the salary cap is $75,000 per team and the minimum salary is $600 a month. Books like Dirk Hayhurst’s Bullpen Gospels and Out Of My League in addition to Matt McCarthy’s Odd Man Out provide inside glimpses to the world of a minor leaguer. Most of us consider these players extremely fortunate to be doing what they do for a living but forget that because of the lack of pay, they are often living three deep in a one bedroom apartment and sustaining off of peanut butter sandwiches. Here at Twins Daily, we are lucky to have a consortium of minor league players who have provided us a look into their on-field experience (and a bit of the off-field summertime work) but I think it would be interesting to hear about the day-to-day life of a minor leaguer away from the ballpark. Is it really as grim as Rothman portrays it, or is it similar to a college experience where you are eating wish sandwiches (you know, “boy I wish this Ramen was a sandwich”) and living off of well short of $1,000 a month that minor leaguers make? It sounded like squalid living reflecting back on it now but at the time you just rolled with the punches. Perhaps that is how minor league life is as well. Either way, the Slate.com article is an interesting read and it is a topic worth mulling over. Click here to view the article

Without a doubt, there will be plenty of storylines to monitor during spring training this year. One of the bigger ones that you should keep an eye on in Fort Myers is Francisco Liriano’s fastball. Download attachment: a7187e1f01b51d0ba54e027edfb8d53c.jpg Injuries took him out of the 2011 season but it was clear that the southpaw was not the same pitcher as he was the season before. Between a decrease in velocity, an inability to locate his fastball and regularly falling behind his opponents, Liriano posted a career high in walks (75) and his second-worst ERA of his career (5.09). Perhaps a bit predictably based upon his delivery and past history, he succumbed to injuries midway through last season and missed a significant amount of time. Suddenly, not signing Liriano to a long-term deal became one of Bill Smith’s finest moves as a GM. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For his part, Liriano, who was admonished for not following through with offseason workouts before last season, opted to participate in winter ball – the same platform that helped him regain his form two seasons ago. Unfortunately, the results were not quite as enticing this year as they were in the past. He threw 24.2 innings and posted a 25/16 K/BB ratio in winter ball. This outcome was a distant cry from his 2009 winter league performance in which he reintroduced himself to baseball as one of the more filthy pitchers in baseball. That year in 20 innings Liriano posted a 30/5 K/BB ratio on his way to becoming one of the Twins more dominating starters in the 2010 regular season. Admittedly, each pitch thrown between November and April means very little in the grand scheme yet the signs are not wholly positive at this juncture. What can Liriano do to become the pitcher the Twins so desperately need in 2012? There’s no question that he still has the nasty slider that can catapult him towards being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, however, as I detailed following Liriano’s first outing this offseason in the Dominican, the main question is whether he can command his fastball. According to BrooksBaseball.net’s pitch f/x data, Liriano’s fastball was vastly different from the 2010 predecessor: [TABLE] [TD=colspan: 4, align: center]Liriano’s Fastballs (2010 vs 2011)[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]MPH[/TD] [TD=align: center]Called Strike[/TD] [TD=align: center]Whiff[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.6%[/TD] [TD=align: center]15.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]21.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]13.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]10.8%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]14.7%[/TD] [TD=align: center]12.3%[/TD] [/TABLE] In addition to the decrease in velocity, notice the sharp decline in the amount of called strikes with his two-seamed fastball. This is the pitch he uses most often against right-handed opponents. This may explain why his walk rate when facing righties jumped from 8.5% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2011. Having scouted a couple of Liriano’s outings in the Dominican, you can see that he was still struggling to place the pitch in the Caribbean – specifically his two-seamed fastball against right-handers. Outside of Scott Baker, the Twins have little in their rotation of being an elite pitcher. In order to reach that echelon which the team so desperately needs, Liriano, besides being healthy, needs to see an improved fastball in 2012. Click here to view the article

UPDATE: Did you pick Josh Willingham for your Twins "Pick 2 Cliq" candidate? Congratulations, you will receive $50 for your CliquorStore.com account! Interested in winning $50 in free booze? Of course you are. Twins Daily and CliquorStore.com are proud to present the “Pick-2-Cliq” contest. In order to qualify, head over to CliquorStore.com (over 21 years of age only, please) and register for an account if you do not have one already. Come back here to the Twins Daily page prior to the start of Friday's game and tell us who you think will have the best game at the plate for the Minnesota Twins against the Orioles on Opening Day. Two participants who select the correct hitter will be chosen at random to receive $50 in Cliquor Bucks – good for purchases at any participating liquor stores in the Minnesota area. So, head over to CliquorStore.com, register and comeback here and tell us who will be your “Pick-2-Cliq” in today’s game! Download attachment: Pick2Cliq.jpg Click to enlarge Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg Brian Dozier’s profile was elevated quickly thanks to a strong spring training performance. The shortstop was lifted on to Twins fan’s radars when favorable reports emerged from Florida, touting him as the Twins’ next “big” prospect -- ignoring for a moment that at 25 years old he was far from a rising prospect or the fact that when he was excelling in the minors he was doing so at levels in which he was much older than the surrounding competition. Dozier arrived with the big club and begin to hit above many analysts’ expectations. Through his first 49 plate appearances, he was hitting .298/.327/.489 with five extra base hits including two home runs. Regression, unfortunately, would come rapidly as he would be unable to sustain that early pace, sliding into a 6-for-41 (.146) skid since May 18. This is not an unexpected turn of events for a young player. Anecdotally, when Boston’s rookie Will Middlebrooks pounded the ball all over New England, teammate, veteran and Sweatiest Man of the Year finalist Kevin Youkilis noted that while Middlebrooks’ production was impressive, the real challenge was yet to come. When Dozier, like Middlebrooks, first arrived to the major league level the book on him was rather thin. Like a tangled shoelace knot, teams tried to pick him apart by simply attacking the middle and seeing what works. Clearly, judging from Dozier’s Pitch F/X swing zone from Dozier’s first 11 games, opponents were throwing stuff over the heart of the plate a bit more frequently: Download attachment: Dozier_5 1-5 17.JPG So, when Dozier demonstrated some success, teams adjusted their plan on him. While Dozier proved he could handle the stuff over the middle of the zone, the opposing teams’ advanced scout would soon begin to crack Dozier’s code. He would be pitched away more often. Pitchers would elevate their fastballs that he would chase. He would see more sliders off the plate that we would chase: Download attachment: Dozier_5 18-5 28.JPG Dozier, who showed a decent amount of balance at the plate in the minors (151-to-168 walks-to-strikeouts), has not practiced the same restraint he had in the past. While he did not show a wellspring of discipline during his hot stretch, just a pair of walks compared to eight strikeouts, Dozier would have a 1-to-12 BB-to-K ratio during his most recent 44 plate appearances bringing his BB-to-K total to 3-to-20 in 93 plate appearances. This, as Youkilis pointed out to the Boston media, was just the pitfalls of success: To some degree, this is what happened to Chris Parmelee. Parmelee’s September outburst drew attention from opposing teams and they tailored a game plan that would stymie the first baseman this spring. Young hitters like Parmelee and Dozier need to adjust with the competition. Specifically for Dozier, offensive progress means trying to re-calibrate his swing zone. If pitchers are going to continue to pound away, make sure you start going with that pitch instead of turning it over (CC: Danny Valencia). If they are trying to get you to fish, try to wait for something in the zone (which is always easier said than done). Being a successful everyday contributor means being able to make adjustments quickly. Now we will see if Dozier has a response for his opponents. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Carroll.jpg Earlier in the season, I tracked down the recently traded Jamey Carroll in the Twins’ clubhouse and picked his brain on the art of fielding. A player’s offensive production tends to attract the lion’s share of the attention while the contributions with the glove go under-appreciated – especially if a player is not necessarily flashy. As Bill James once said, “Offense is making things happen. Defense is keeping things from happening. People would much rather watch things happen.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] People may not have noticed, but Jamey Carroll kept a lot of things from happening. He was signed following a disastrous stretch of defensive baseball which featured Tsuyoshi Nishioka at short and second and current third baseman Trevor Plouffe manning short and throwing bullets into the first base stands. Carroll had proven to be a stabilizing force in the infield. By drawing on his years of experience he has been able to compensate for the lack of overall speed and declining reaction time as he approaches his 40th birthday. “For me, personally, that is a big huge part of the game,” Carroll said in regards to positioning himself before each pitch. “Knowing the swing of the hitter, knowing the type of pitcher who is pitching and the type of pitches he pitches, knowing the hitter and if he is hitting good or not hitting good. Obviously I want to try to be in the right spot so I can field it cleanly and have time to make a good throw – that’s not always the case but I put that all into play before every pitch.” Preparation was a key part of Hall of Fame shortstop Cal Ripken’s success. In the book Men At Work, George Will profiled Ripken’s outstanding defensive contributions and the shortstop said that what helped him become one of the game’s elite defenders was understanding the same things Carroll mentioned above: the hitter, the pitcher and the situation. One of Nishioka’s biggest downfalls was his lack of knowledge when it came to his opponents. In 2011, he attempted to rush a throw from short against the slow-footed Travis Hafner and wound up bobbling the ball while charging it hard. Had Nishioka had more familiarity, he may have waited back instead and made a clean play. (Maybe.) Over his 12 year career, Carroll has contributed extensively at three positions in the infield. While spending the vast majority of his time at second base, he has also seen plenty of action at third and short as he developed into a utility player. During his stay in Minnesota, playing next to him have been two displaced shortstops in Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier, two young players attempting to adapt to new positions. Where Dozier’s defense has been impressive at second base, Plouffe’s glove at third has left some things to be desired. Carroll’s positional diversity gives him the ability to understand the challenges for his former teammates. “All three of them have something different about that makes either fun or more difficult,” said Carroll. “Like at second base, turning a double play with not being able to see the runner or see where you are throwing. At shortstop you have to constantly be on the move, you have to have some rhythm with more ground to cover. Then at third, where second and short you have some room to be able to get reads on the ball, at third it is either smoked to you or a chopper, you feel closer to the hitter so that has its own charm. I think if you are playing second or third, you’re footwork does not have to be as skilled as it does when you go to short and you realize how important it is and how much it really is needed. So I think playing those positions and then jumping over to short, it’s more challenging that way.” With the analytics of the game expanding rapidly, especially the advent of advanced defensive metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating, I wondered if Carroll had ever been curious on how his fielding contributions stacks up to his contemporaries by the various new measurement systems. When I asked him about if he ever looked up those numbers, he shot me a look as if I inquired whether he sprinkled his glove with magic fairy dust to help him field better. “Maybe when everything is all said and done I’ll go back and take a look,” he said. “I feel it is more of a jinx kind of thing. You can get caught up in it – more so with hitting because that’s something more effected on a daily basis. But you know when you make an error and it sticks with you. You know if you were out of position or feel like you made a mistake while reading a certain thing. I don’t understand the range factor and all that stuff. It goes back to the fact that I’m a big believer in positioning. So when you start judging by range factor and certain guys have this or that, I almost take pride that I am in the right place at the right time instead of having to range for a ball.” What about things that defensive metrics don’t measure or account for from infielders, like knowing where to be for outfield cut? One of the biggest knocks on Nishioka was that he would put himself in a poor or even wrong place to take cuts from the outfielders. Are there guys who have a better ability to position themselves to help reduce the likelihood of runners taking extra bases? “I think it is pretty basic as far as where the play happens and knowing which base. Obviously when the ball is hit and how the ball is hit usually dictates where you need to line up to be. But you also factor in where it is to what particular guy as far as some guys you need to go farther out on and others you don’t but for the most part, where you line up for each base is pretty basic.” Carroll falls in the camp of a spectacularly unspectacular defender. His range is not what it was when he was roaming the artificial infield of Montreal’s Olympic Stadium at the beginning of the century. The first step does not fire off like it once did. The arm, which was showcased in his inning of work in Kansas City recently, is not what it used to be. Nevertheless, Carroll has been steady and committed to his craft. Click here to view the article

Vance Worley is poised for his second unofficial start for the Minnesota Twins today. Compared to the other recent additions to the rotation, the 25-year-old right-hander’s first outing in the Grapefruit League was very positive. He worked two innings, allowed a pair of hits but didn’t allow any runs. Feedback from his new manager was good. “I like him. He looks like a gunslinger with that windup,” Ron Gardenhire told reporters following the team’s 5-4 victory over the Pirates. “It looks like he’s ready to draw a pistol. I always liked guys like that.” Of course, first impressions are sort of Worley’s thing. It is meeting people a second and third time that the newest member of the team needs to work on, as you will see. Heading into the 2012 season Worley grew concerned that the rest of the league was going to catch on to his sinker, a pitch that had been wildly successful for him in 2011 when he finished 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 131.2 innings and took third in the Rookie of the Year voting. “I need to develop a change-up this spring so I can have it ready for this season,” Worley toldYahoo.com’s Dave Brown, “The whole league knows I throw a sinker now, and my cutter is OK; it can be good at times. But definitely I need a third pitch.” True to his word, Worley set out to install the change as his third pitch. Up to that point in his career, his version of the change was the standard “circle” grip, named such because when the pitcher’s thumb and index finger make the “OK” symbol and the ball is thrown with the aid of the three remaining fingers. Still, the results on the pitch in 2011 were lackluster. Because he threw this change at a high velocity (averaging 84.7 mph according to Fangraphs.com) he had little separation between that and his sinker and cutter (thrown on average at 90 mph). Opponents smacked the change around to the tune of a .309 average. Even coming off his solid rookie campaign, Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee reiterated the need for Worley to add an additional pitch. “Hitters will adjust after seeing him,” he told the media. “He has to adjust, too.” Worley had the good fortune of being employed alongside one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. Just a few years prior, Halladay learned a new change-up grip that helped win him the National League Cy Young Away in 2010. Rather than the circle grip he split his ring and middle fingers out wide on what would have been a prototypical two-seam fastball grip, a less wide version of the split-finger fastball. What the former Cy Young winner did was develop a “split-change” that had heavy sink and enough speed variation to make it extremely effective. In camp in 2012, Worley hoped to come away with the new version of his change-up but despite the fact he had shaved a tad off of the velocity (down to 83 mph), he still did not feel comfortable throwing it frequently throughout the year. Nevertheless, Worley had success despite not missing bats was due to his deceptive delivery andoutstanding movement on his sinker/two-seamer. He froze opponents regularly, ringing up a baseball-high 57% of his strikeouts looking. What’s more is that umpires (with some help from his catcher) gave him nearly 10% of his pitches not swung at and thrown OUTSIDE of the strike zone a strike. That’s well above the league average of 7%. It appears, at least judging by the statistics, that opponents figured out not to be fooled as much by the movement or deceptive delivery the second or third time around. Worley’s splits may show signs of how he was affected by his shallow arsenal. According to Baseball-Reference.com’s pitching splits, Worley labored as the lineup continued to turnover in 2012. After the first time through the order, the spectacled one held the opposition to a 620 OPS coupled with a 22% strikeout rate. This success would slide significantly as the game progressed. The second time through the OPS increased to 863 while his strikeout rate dropped to 17%. The third time around, the floodgates would open as his OPS allowed spiked to 971 while his strikeout rate came in at 13%. With a lack of a solid third pitch, was the shifting numbers a result of opponents zeroing in on his sinker and cutter? While those segmentations are small sample sizes, the OPS allowed in the second and third time through the order were noticeably higher than the league average. As Worley said prior to the 2012 season, he was in need of an additional pitch. He threw a solid cutter, one that had the highest percentage of swing-and-misses among his repertoire last season, but that has been below average among all pitch types in that department. There’s probably some hesitation as to why Worley had mistrust in his change. It is a “feel” pitch and, given the fact that he allowed three of the 12 home runs surrendered on the pitch while throwing it less than 8% of the time. Look at his intended location versus his actual location for this change when facing Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alverez: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1362146832_Worley_Spot1.PNG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Worley_Result1.PNG Yes. That ball went way far, far away. The reason was that instead of down and away as desired, this slow mover went middle-in and allowed Alverez to nearly send that pitch back to the other side of the state of Pennsylvania. If a pitcher does not have confidence to hit his spots consistently, that pitcher may withhold throwing that pitch. And it appears that Worley still does not have faith in that offering either. “My changeup is usually just terrible all around, all the time,” Worley told reporters after his first outing this spring. “So if I can not use it, I won’t use it.” True, Worley only faced eight batters so he did not have the lineup turn on him and likely did not need to show them anything else. Yet switching to the American League, where, thanks to the DH, lineups are more robust, it should accelerate the need to refine that pitch. If he is able to hone that pitch, he may have better success against his opponent that second and third time through the order in 2013. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gardy_Mauer.jpg The Twins surprised everyone yesterday but announcing that Joe Mauer has made the decision to relocate to first base after spending his career as one of the game’s best two-way catchers. Comments from Twins general manager Terry Ryan in October made it clear that the team was not totally anticipating Mauer’s move as they entered the planning season for 2014. In his address to the media yesterday, Mauer mentioned that there were occasions that he would take a foul tip and it extremely difficult for him to perform, even mentioning at one point that he had troubles feeling his hands gripping the bat after suffering his concussion. The move early in the offseason will allow the front office to address the issues that arise, namely finding another catcher. On MLBNetwork Radio’s Power Alley yesterday manager Ron Gardenhire shared his thoughts on the decision. In regards to how the decision was made: On how Joe Mauer was handling this: On Mauer’s ability to play first base: On who will replace Mauer behind the plate: Click here to view the article

Joe Mauer has spent a substantial amount of time over the past few weeks on various media outlets attempting to erase memories of his contributions (or lack thereof) to the 99-loss season. He’s working hard. He’s putting on weight. He’s eating Wheaties. He’s saying his prayers. He's drinking nothing but unicorn milk. He’s doing the Rocky IV training in Russia. He’s P90X-ing while Tae Bo-ing. Etc. Etc. Merited or not, he has earned himself a reputation among the media types as being soft. KFAN’s Dan Barreiro had an on-going bit entitled “How Long Would Mauer Milk It?” alluding to various other afflictions (rug burn, paper cuts, etc) and the time the Twins catcher would spend on the bench. This also leaked from being a local gag to a more national sentiment. In fact, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Joe Cowley recently wrote that “Joe Mauer is the guy in the foxhole who’d rather push someone else onto the grenade than risk his hair getting messed up.” That’s a pretty damning view of his character, especially coming from a visiting columnist who does not see the inner workings of the clubhouse last year. True, while he may have ticked off some teammates and writers with his spa treatment in the whirlpool facilities, when he was on the field his performance was substandard for the bar that Mauer had set. Clearly, one of the biggest mitigating factors behind this was his health. It is unfortunate that he has had to jump through these hoops to explain that he wasn’t 100% last year but that comes with the $23 million dollar territory. During an interview on1500ESPN with Tom Pelissero and Phil Mackey, Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra discussed what he perceived as causes for Mauer’s disappointing 2011 season and the effects the various injuries and ailments had on his performance. Because of his leg injury, Vavra said that the Twins catcher had troubles “getting off his backside and favored his legs a bit.” This, he said, led to more head movement as well as him being “unable to turn on the ball.” Vavra, a very astute hitting coach, said he first noticed the change in Mauer late in the 2010 season when he showed less of a tendency to turning on the ball. The subsequent offseason surgery and inability to fully recuperation likely exacerbated his leg issues into the “bi-lateral leg weakness” that sprung up. Without much of a foundation, Mauer struggled to pull the ball in addition to lifting the ball in the air. As anyone who has spent one iota of time watching the Twins knows, Mauer’s bread-and-butter has been his ability to go the other way. Not only is he able to drive the pitch on the outer-half to left field, he often uses that inside-outside to muscle pitches on the inner-half the other way as well. After all, he’s a .436 career hitter when going oppo and, during his magical 2009 MVP season in which he smacked 28 home runs, a high percentage of his home runs were actually hit to left field (11 opposite field home runs). Even though he made his millions feasting on left field, he still showed the potential to sock one to right every now and then. In 2011, that tendency decreased considerable. As you can see, Mauer’s ability to pull the ball has diminished some in comparison to the past several years and compared to his career too: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Pulling.jpg Similarly, Mauer had troubles lifting the ball to center as well, showing little power when smacking a pitch back up-the-middle: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Center.jpg Visually, his batted ball spray chart tells the same story. In 2009 and 2010 Mauer placed hits liberally to mid-to-deep center field and right field. That essentially evaporated in 2011 as only a handful of balls leaked out to (and over) the wall. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Spray_Chart.jpg What all this says is that he did not drive the ball as well as he did as recently as 2010. As the data showed above, Mauer definitely struggled to get around on pitches but what’s more is that he was unable to generate any lift. In 2011, just 21.5% of the balls he hit were of the fly ball variety – the lowest rate of his career. This put him in the category with punch-and-judy slap hitters like Ben Revere, Wilson Valdez, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki and Elvis Andrus – the only hitters ahead of him who hit fewer fly balls. Without a strong foundation, hitters have troubles elevating the ball and without elevation, you lose extra base hit capabilities. A year ago, Vavra cited Denard Span’s head movement as a major impetus behind his drop-off in 2010. That season, Span’s number declined as his groundball rate grew a bit. According to Vavra, Span was demonstrating too much head movement, rising up when the pitch was coming and causing him to shift the plane which led to less square contact. Now Vavra has made a mention of this being one of the issues for Mauer. If Mauer has been doing the same thing, it is not showing up on video footage of him (at least not to the extent that Span’s head movement had shown).Nevertheless, his 55.4% groundball rate in 2011 was the highest of his career and changing his vision plane would be a logical source for this increase. What are the odds that Mauer can bring himself back up into shape for 2012? Mauer had said he has rededicated himself this offseason, reportedly adding 30 pounds after shedding so much during the season last year, but mostly concentrating on his knee: "My workouts at this point were focused on rehabbing the knee, and I really didn't get to work on other things. Being a baseball player, with all the other movements you need to make, you need to focus on total body, and I'm able to do that now.” If healthy in 2012, Mauer should be able to turn on the ball a bit more, adding some lift and distance, and make people forget that he spent in the infirmary. He will likely never match that special 2009 season but as a high average/high on-base, solid defensive catcher, he is capable of being the anchor this team desperately needs. Click here to view the article