Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg Following Monday’s 0-for-2 performance, lowering his spring batting average to .100, Justin Morneau addressed his struggles: "It's gotten better. It's not where I want it to be yet. The swing's getting better. The swing feels a lot better than it did when I first got down here. It's a process, it's moving along. I just have to keep telling myself that it's slow, and just because it's not here now doesn't mean it's not going to be here a week from now." Sound familiar? A year ago, Morneau was coming off a serious concussion injury and slowly easing back into the game in mid-March. For the majority of the time in Florida in 2011, he struggled. He failed to leave the yard in his 11 games and batted .152 but managed to knock a trifecta of doubles. Reflecting on his performance, told the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E Neal that his “timing is starting to come .” Despite his claim to the contrary, in the regular season Morneau’s timing never came. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As of this past Monday, his results have continued to plummet (down to .091 after yesterday’s 0-for-3 game), sending a ripple of concern through the Minnesota fan base that the timing may never come. For those looking for some reassurance, you can turn to the fact that it is hard to put too much stock into the small sample size that is spring training. Additionally, Morneau has never been a fast starter when it comes to spring training (dating back to 2006 and MLB.com’s statistical database). Perhaps the Canadians have a tough time adjusting to the Gulf Coast heat. With the exception of his 2009 spring in which he hit three home runs and slugged over .700, he has been somewhat of a disappointment each March. Nevertheless, he has still managed to come out and perform admireably once the calender flips to April. Take is 2010 spring for instance. That year he posted a batting average of .160 (albeit tagging three home runs). Even though he had what could be considered a slow start, he was blazing through the league, hitting .345/.437/.618 with 18 home runs prior to his run-in with John MacDonald’s knee. Morneau and the media on-lookers in Fort Myers are trying to sell hope. “It’s close” is the clear message. Back on March 16th Neal said in his blog that Morneau “swung the bat with murderous intentions tonight, which could be a sign that his timing is coming around to the point where he's comfortable with letting it fly.” Morneau told reporters after Monday’s game that “I think I've just kind of let it fly and hit some balls hard - hit some balls hard at people, hit some balls hard foul. I guess that's a pretty good sign. Especially yesterday, I pulled the ball foul. I hadn't done that in a long time." Likewise, following yesterday’s contest, 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey described Morneau’s outs as “scalded” and hit “hard.” These are positive signs, are they not? After all, hard hit balls eventually turn into hits. Then again, while that sounds comforting, this has been a historically bad spring output for the first baseman. He has never not hit an extra base hit in spring training. He has never had a sub-.100 batting average. What’s more, he has never had to recover from a concussion, wrist surgery and pain in his neck, shoulder, knees and toes (knees and toes). If he was not be able to shake the concussion alone last year to regain his timing, what is to lead us to believe he will overcome all four ailments to rebound in 2012? Click here to view the article

The 2011 season was quite a mess for Francisco Liriano. Coming off the solid 2010 season, expectations had been high for the lefty and instead of moving forward he regressed heavily, turning in one of the worst seasons among qualified starters. Command-wise, his 12.7% walk rate was the highest among pitchers with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. According to a recent John Shipley article at the PiPress, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson offered up a cure for what he believes ails Liriano: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This is an interesting assessment because this is not the first time that getting Liriano to pitch more “downhill” as been brought up. Following his eight-inning, nine strikeout performance against the Texas Rangers on June 12 of last year, the MLB Network crew took the opportunity to dissect the difference between the early season Liriano – the one who had gone 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA with a 21/27 K/BB ratio in 35.2 innings combined in his first seven starts – to the one who had just obliterated the future AL Champions. What MLB analyst Mitch Williams noted was that Liriano had a tendency of not “staying behind his head”. The former closer described this as rushing throw his delivery and that he would peel off towards the third base line with his momentum – just like Anderson said. This, noted Williams, resulted in a decrease in control. Williams and his on-screen partner Dan Plesac also highlighted a key difference between his June 12 domination and a clip from a 2010 start against Baltimore: Liriano’s arm angle. Here you see the screenshot and notice the tilt variation between the still on the left (from 2010) to the one on the right (2011). Download attachment: Liriano_Release Points.jpg Williams said that Liriano’s 2011 angle was “much better” than his 2010 one and that gave him the ability to pitch “downhill.” Fangraphs.com’s Pitch F/X charts confirm that his arm was much more vertical on that day versus that of his 2010 outing against the Orioles:Download attachment: Liriano_Rangers.jpg Release point vs Rangers 2011 Download attachment: Liriano_Orioles.jpg Release point vs Orioles 2010 As we know by now, Liriano’s outing against Texas was not the pivotal turnaround moment that most hoped for (or that MLB Network predicted). Instead, he sputtered throughout the remainder of the season and walked 12% of batters faced. At some point during the early portion of the season, according to a source with the team, the Twins used visual aids supplied by the team’s videographer to show the left-hander how chaotic and random his release points had been at the season’s onset. Supposedly, they were working on getting Liriano to raise his release point. As Anderson mentioned to reporters, he feels that if Liriano stays “tall”, he will be able to create a better downward plane. Many people interpreted the Twins staff’s tinkering with Liriano in 2011 as a way to convert the strikeout pitcher into a finesse-type who pitches to contact. To which Anderson denies: Without question, Liriano has some inconsistent mechanics - he pulls off towards third, he short arms at times, his rushes through his delivery, he throws from various slots, etc – and you can understand why Rick Anderson is trying to iron him out. Anderson claims that the higher release point will get him to throw “downhill” more. Mitch Williams echoed that sentiment by saying the downward plane leads to a “fastball that explodes in the last four-to-five feet” and gets more drop on the slider. However, and with no disrespect to Mr. Anderson or Mr. Williams, but thus far the higher release point has seemingly done squat for Liriano. I understand that Rick Anderson has done wonders with plenty of pitchers but it is possible that what he describes as “his way” may not be the optimum position for Liriano. In 2010, according to pitch f/x charts Liriano’s release point appeared to be somewhere between 10 and 11 o’clock (a bit lower) while this past season he moved it up closer to 12 (a bit higher). In 2010, his fastball command was far superior and his slider showed more bite. This past season his exercised some of the worst command of a fastball among all qualified starters. Based on that alone, one may consider reverting back to the 2010 mechanics if, for nothing else, to rekindle that flame. In April of last season, I took a quick look at the difference between the 2010 and 2011 Liriano deliveries and found that in 2011 he was remaining tall (much like the Twins are encouraging him to do) but his follow-through lacked the same downward action that he showed in 2010. According to pitch f/x charts, it appeared that staying tall seemed to elevate his fastball. At that time, I figured the staff would try to get him to emulate his 2010 mechanics but it sounds like I was wrong. It is curious to me that instead of attempting to re-create the environment that propelled Liriano towards his second best season of his career, Anderson has been trying to mold him into pitching “his way” and throwing it “straight up” - a manner in which Liriano has struggled. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Nolasco.jpg On Tuesday afternoon the Minnesota Twins introduced the most expensive free agent in the organization’s history. Outside on the scoreboard, high above the team’s dormant field, a graphic splashed welcoming Ricky Nolasco to Twins Territory. At the press conference cameras rolled, questions were lobbed and Nolasco (with his impressively manicured beard) sat between general manager Terry Ryan and his agent, Matt Sosnick, having hopes pinned on him that he will help dig the franchise out from the bottom of the division. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] New uniform, smiles, handshakes, photo ops. Ryan spoke to Nolasco’s workhorse pedigree, his ability to miss bats and his character. His agent compared him to the muscle cars the pitcher loves to collect. Media members peppered him with inquiries ranging from his thoughts on the move to the American League to if the taste of the postseason with the Dodgers whet his appetite for more playoff action. When the song and dance ended, I tapped Nolasco for a quick sidebar on his pitching style. Based on research conducted at the beginning of the offseason, I asked Nolasco if his 2013 success coincided with his increased frequency of pitching inside to opponents. “I think it is a big part of any starting pitcher’s game,” Nolasco answer, reciting pitching wisdom imparted from grizzled pitching coaches to pitchers for generations. “I think you’ve got to pitch inside and open up the outside part of the plate for later on in the game. That’s always the process you want to do as a starting pitcher.” Hard in, soft away. Live to pitch another day. That is the mantra of pitchers everywhere since the dawn of the game. However, a few seasons ago Nolasco and his coaches with the Marlins noticed he had been drifting away from this technique and hitters were able to extend their arms, a sure sign that pitches were further off the hitter’s belt and more in the swing zone. That is when he made a minor change. Maybe it was simply intended to be a placebo effect to raise his awareness, but Nolasco, at the behest of his pitching coach, shifted a half-foot on the rubber toward the first base side. “One of my pitching coaches in Miami, Randy St. Clair, was the one who suggested it,” he offered. “Obviously it has been a big positive influence for me and my pitching style and a big change helping me get back to where I should be able to pitch numbers-wise.” The results were noticeable. From 2011 to July 2012, Nolasco held a 4.76 ERA with a hardy 1.40 WHIP. Following the change, he has had a 3.71 ERA with a tidier 1.23 WHIP. “[st. Clair] told me a lot of the times when I was getting in trouble and getting hit was when things were just barely coming back on the plate so he said that maybe if we move over six to eight inches on that side it that would prevent those two or three pitches that were hurting me a game, that would keep them out and away from the middle of the plate a little more. And he was right.” Indeed. Prior to last year’s trade deadline, Fangraph.com’s Jeff Sullivan showed visual evidence of Nolasco’s rubber shift with Pitch F/X graphs and screen grabs. In the span from 2011 to July 2012, Nolasco’s strikeout rate had fallen significantly to 16% and his well-hit average had jumped to .217. Post-shift, the strikeout rate climbed back to league-average (19%) and the well-hit average dropped to .173. It was like Nolasco was a new pitcher, or at the very least his pre-2011 self again. Perhaps the success goes back to working inside. According to ESPN Stats & Info, since August of 2012 he’s been able to lock in on the inner-half of the plate more with all his pitches. Between 2011 and July 2012, Nolasco’s pitches were hitting the inside portion of the zone just 23% of the time (compared to the 28% league average). Since? He’s been going inside at a 29% rate and the overall numbers are hard to argue with. Welcome to Minnesota Ricky. The weather’s about to get nasty. Remember to stay inside. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mlmdmainlogo.jpg Lily Rothman of Slate.com recently wrote a very interesting piece on the treatment of minor league baseball players and their plight to make ends meet. Rothman noted that these “hidden underclass of workers” make a salary comprising of $1,100 a month and receive that pay for only half the year. As opposed to their major league brethren, minor leaguers have little or no protection as a working class. There have been some players within the system who have championed for some labor changes. According to the article: The last player to talk seriously about minor-league unionization was Garrett Broshuis. In 2006, Broshuis was playing for the Connecticut Defenders, the AA affiliate of the San Francisco Giants. The pitcher, who was sharing an apartment with some teammates in a bad neighborhood in Norwich, Conn., got radicalized after an upstairs toilet clogged and flooded the place. “That was kind of the moment where I realized this isn’t really fair,” he remembers. “It’s not fair that I’m playing in front of seven or 8,000 people each night and making pennies.” Broshuis, who is a good follow on Twitter, tried to make some inroads with his fellow minor leaguers and convince them that unionizing was in their best interest. Nothing came of it. Things are even worse for the independent leaguers who do not have the incentive of being within a major league team’s system, you get little pay and no assurance that you may have a chance of reaching the next level: But there will always be players like Tom Zebroski, a 45th-round draft pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2010. As a first-year player, he made $1,100 a month before taxes, and his bonus wasn’t any bigger. Zebroski had promised himself he would never play in an independent league, with no direct route to the big leagues and even less money than you get in the minors. But when he got released by the Royals last year, Zebroski changed his mind. He decided to work in the offseason to save up for the chance to have a chance. “It's one of those things that, if you give it up before you're ready to, you'll be questioning yourself,” he says. “Like, what if I'd done this, what if I'd done that, what if I'd given it one more year?” He now plays for the Traverse City Beach Bums in the Frontier League, where the salary cap is $75,000 per team and the minimum salary is $600 a month. Books like Dirk Hayhurst’s Bullpen Gospels and Out Of My League in addition to Matt McCarthy’s Odd Man Out provide inside glimpses to the world of a minor leaguer. Most of us consider these players extremely fortunate to be doing what they do for a living but forget that because of the lack of pay, they are often living three deep in a one bedroom apartment and sustaining off of peanut butter sandwiches. Here at Twins Daily, we are lucky to have a consortium of minor league players who have provided us a look into their on-field experience (and a bit of the off-field summertime work) but I think it would be interesting to hear about the day-to-day life of a minor leaguer away from the ballpark. Is it really as grim as Rothman portrays it, or is it similar to a college experience where you are eating wish sandwiches (you know, “boy I wish this Ramen was a sandwich”) and living off of well short of $1,000 a month that minor leaguers make? It sounded like squalid living reflecting back on it now but at the time you just rolled with the punches. Perhaps that is how minor league life is as well. Either way, the Slate.com article is an interesting read and it is a topic worth mulling over. Click here to view the article

Without a doubt, there will be plenty of storylines to monitor during spring training this year. One of the bigger ones that you should keep an eye on in Fort Myers is Francisco Liriano’s fastball. Download attachment: a7187e1f01b51d0ba54e027edfb8d53c.jpg Injuries took him out of the 2011 season but it was clear that the southpaw was not the same pitcher as he was the season before. Between a decrease in velocity, an inability to locate his fastball and regularly falling behind his opponents, Liriano posted a career high in walks (75) and his second-worst ERA of his career (5.09). Perhaps a bit predictably based upon his delivery and past history, he succumbed to injuries midway through last season and missed a significant amount of time. Suddenly, not signing Liriano to a long-term deal became one of Bill Smith’s finest moves as a GM. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For his part, Liriano, who was admonished for not following through with offseason workouts before last season, opted to participate in winter ball – the same platform that helped him regain his form two seasons ago. Unfortunately, the results were not quite as enticing this year as they were in the past. He threw 24.2 innings and posted a 25/16 K/BB ratio in winter ball. This outcome was a distant cry from his 2009 winter league performance in which he reintroduced himself to baseball as one of the more filthy pitchers in baseball. That year in 20 innings Liriano posted a 30/5 K/BB ratio on his way to becoming one of the Twins more dominating starters in the 2010 regular season. Admittedly, each pitch thrown between November and April means very little in the grand scheme yet the signs are not wholly positive at this juncture. What can Liriano do to become the pitcher the Twins so desperately need in 2012? There’s no question that he still has the nasty slider that can catapult him towards being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, however, as I detailed following Liriano’s first outing this offseason in the Dominican, the main question is whether he can command his fastball. According to BrooksBaseball.net’s pitch f/x data, Liriano’s fastball was vastly different from the 2010 predecessor: [TABLE] [TD=colspan: 4, align: center]Liriano’s Fastballs (2010 vs 2011)[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]MPH[/TD] [TD=align: center]Called Strike[/TD] [TD=align: center]Whiff[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.6%[/TD] [TD=align: center]15.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]21.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]13.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]10.8%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]14.7%[/TD] [TD=align: center]12.3%[/TD] [/TABLE] In addition to the decrease in velocity, notice the sharp decline in the amount of called strikes with his two-seamed fastball. This is the pitch he uses most often against right-handed opponents. This may explain why his walk rate when facing righties jumped from 8.5% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2011. Having scouted a couple of Liriano’s outings in the Dominican, you can see that he was still struggling to place the pitch in the Caribbean – specifically his two-seamed fastball against right-handers. Outside of Scott Baker, the Twins have little in their rotation of being an elite pitcher. In order to reach that echelon which the team so desperately needs, Liriano, besides being healthy, needs to see an improved fastball in 2012. Click here to view the article

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Download attachment: Dozier.jpg Brian Dozier’s profile was elevated quickly thanks to a strong spring training performance. The shortstop was lifted on to Twins fan’s radars when favorable reports emerged from Florida, touting him as the Twins’ next “big” prospect -- ignoring for a moment that at 25 years old he was far from a rising prospect or the fact that when he was excelling in the minors he was doing so at levels in which he was much older than the surrounding competition. Dozier arrived with the big club and begin to hit above many analysts’ expectations. Through his first 49 plate appearances, he was hitting .298/.327/.489 with five extra base hits including two home runs. Regression, unfortunately, would come rapidly as he would be unable to sustain that early pace, sliding into a 6-for-41 (.146) skid since May 18. This is not an unexpected turn of events for a young player. Anecdotally, when Boston’s rookie Will Middlebrooks pounded the ball all over New England, teammate, veteran and Sweatiest Man of the Year finalist Kevin Youkilis noted that while Middlebrooks’ production was impressive, the real challenge was yet to come. When Dozier, like Middlebrooks, first arrived to the major league level the book on him was rather thin. Like a tangled shoelace knot, teams tried to pick him apart by simply attacking the middle and seeing what works. Clearly, judging from Dozier’s Pitch F/X swing zone from Dozier’s first 11 games, opponents were throwing stuff over the heart of the plate a bit more frequently: Download attachment: Dozier_5 1-5 17.JPG So, when Dozier demonstrated some success, teams adjusted their plan on him. While Dozier proved he could handle the stuff over the middle of the zone, the opposing teams’ advanced scout would soon begin to crack Dozier’s code. He would be pitched away more often. Pitchers would elevate their fastballs that he would chase. He would see more sliders off the plate that we would chase: Download attachment: Dozier_5 18-5 28.JPG Dozier, who showed a decent amount of balance at the plate in the minors (151-to-168 walks-to-strikeouts), has not practiced the same restraint he had in the past. While he did not show a wellspring of discipline during his hot stretch, just a pair of walks compared to eight strikeouts, Dozier would have a 1-to-12 BB-to-K ratio during his most recent 44 plate appearances bringing his BB-to-K total to 3-to-20 in 93 plate appearances. This, as Youkilis pointed out to the Boston media, was just the pitfalls of success: To some degree, this is what happened to Chris Parmelee. Parmelee’s September outburst drew attention from opposing teams and they tailored a game plan that would stymie the first baseman this spring. Young hitters like Parmelee and Dozier need to adjust with the competition. Specifically for Dozier, offensive progress means trying to re-calibrate his swing zone. If pitchers are going to continue to pound away, make sure you start going with that pitch instead of turning it over (CC: Danny Valencia). If they are trying to get you to fish, try to wait for something in the zone (which is always easier said than done). Being a successful everyday contributor means being able to make adjustments quickly. Now we will see if Dozier has a response for his opponents. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Carroll.jpg Earlier in the season, I tracked down the recently traded Jamey Carroll in the Twins’ clubhouse and picked his brain on the art of fielding. A player’s offensive production tends to attract the lion’s share of the attention while the contributions with the glove go under-appreciated – especially if a player is not necessarily flashy. As Bill James once said, “Offense is making things happen. Defense is keeping things from happening. People would much rather watch things happen.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] People may not have noticed, but Jamey Carroll kept a lot of things from happening. He was signed following a disastrous stretch of defensive baseball which featured Tsuyoshi Nishioka at short and second and current third baseman Trevor Plouffe manning short and throwing bullets into the first base stands. Carroll had proven to be a stabilizing force in the infield. By drawing on his years of experience he has been able to compensate for the lack of overall speed and declining reaction time as he approaches his 40th birthday. “For me, personally, that is a big huge part of the game,” Carroll said in regards to positioning himself before each pitch. “Knowing the swing of the hitter, knowing the type of pitcher who is pitching and the type of pitches he pitches, knowing the hitter and if he is hitting good or not hitting good. Obviously I want to try to be in the right spot so I can field it cleanly and have time to make a good throw – that’s not always the case but I put that all into play before every pitch.” Preparation was a key part of Hall of Fame shortstop Cal Ripken’s success. In the book Men At Work, George Will profiled Ripken’s outstanding defensive contributions and the shortstop said that what helped him become one of the game’s elite defenders was understanding the same things Carroll mentioned above: the hitter, the pitcher and the situation. One of Nishioka’s biggest downfalls was his lack of knowledge when it came to his opponents. In 2011, he attempted to rush a throw from short against the slow-footed Travis Hafner and wound up bobbling the ball while charging it hard. Had Nishioka had more familiarity, he may have waited back instead and made a clean play. (Maybe.) Over his 12 year career, Carroll has contributed extensively at three positions in the infield. While spending the vast majority of his time at second base, he has also seen plenty of action at third and short as he developed into a utility player. During his stay in Minnesota, playing next to him have been two displaced shortstops in Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier, two young players attempting to adapt to new positions. Where Dozier’s defense has been impressive at second base, Plouffe’s glove at third has left some things to be desired. Carroll’s positional diversity gives him the ability to understand the challenges for his former teammates. “All three of them have something different about that makes either fun or more difficult,” said Carroll. “Like at second base, turning a double play with not being able to see the runner or see where you are throwing. At shortstop you have to constantly be on the move, you have to have some rhythm with more ground to cover. Then at third, where second and short you have some room to be able to get reads on the ball, at third it is either smoked to you or a chopper, you feel closer to the hitter so that has its own charm. I think if you are playing second or third, you’re footwork does not have to be as skilled as it does when you go to short and you realize how important it is and how much it really is needed. So I think playing those positions and then jumping over to short, it’s more challenging that way.” With the analytics of the game expanding rapidly, especially the advent of advanced defensive metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating, I wondered if Carroll had ever been curious on how his fielding contributions stacks up to his contemporaries by the various new measurement systems. When I asked him about if he ever looked up those numbers, he shot me a look as if I inquired whether he sprinkled his glove with magic fairy dust to help him field better. “Maybe when everything is all said and done I’ll go back and take a look,” he said. “I feel it is more of a jinx kind of thing. You can get caught up in it – more so with hitting because that’s something more effected on a daily basis. But you know when you make an error and it sticks with you. You know if you were out of position or feel like you made a mistake while reading a certain thing. I don’t understand the range factor and all that stuff. It goes back to the fact that I’m a big believer in positioning. So when you start judging by range factor and certain guys have this or that, I almost take pride that I am in the right place at the right time instead of having to range for a ball.” What about things that defensive metrics don’t measure or account for from infielders, like knowing where to be for outfield cut? One of the biggest knocks on Nishioka was that he would put himself in a poor or even wrong place to take cuts from the outfielders. Are there guys who have a better ability to position themselves to help reduce the likelihood of runners taking extra bases? “I think it is pretty basic as far as where the play happens and knowing which base. Obviously when the ball is hit and how the ball is hit usually dictates where you need to line up to be. But you also factor in where it is to what particular guy as far as some guys you need to go farther out on and others you don’t but for the most part, where you line up for each base is pretty basic.” Carroll falls in the camp of a spectacularly unspectacular defender. His range is not what it was when he was roaming the artificial infield of Montreal’s Olympic Stadium at the beginning of the century. The first step does not fire off like it once did. The arm, which was showcased in his inning of work in Kansas City recently, is not what it used to be. Nevertheless, Carroll has been steady and committed to his craft. Click here to view the article

Vance Worley is poised for his second unofficial start for the Minnesota Twins today. Compared to the other recent additions to the rotation, the 25-year-old right-hander’s first outing in the Grapefruit League was very positive. He worked two innings, allowed a pair of hits but didn’t allow any runs. Feedback from his new manager was good. “I like him. He looks like a gunslinger with that windup,” Ron Gardenhire told reporters following the team’s 5-4 victory over the Pirates. “It looks like he’s ready to draw a pistol. I always liked guys like that.” Of course, first impressions are sort of Worley’s thing. It is meeting people a second and third time that the newest member of the team needs to work on, as you will see. Heading into the 2012 season Worley grew concerned that the rest of the league was going to catch on to his sinker, a pitch that had been wildly successful for him in 2011 when he finished 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 131.2 innings and took third in the Rookie of the Year voting. “I need to develop a change-up this spring so I can have it ready for this season,” Worley toldYahoo.com’s Dave Brown, “The whole league knows I throw a sinker now, and my cutter is OK; it can be good at times. But definitely I need a third pitch.” True to his word, Worley set out to install the change as his third pitch. Up to that point in his career, his version of the change was the standard “circle” grip, named such because when the pitcher’s thumb and index finger make the “OK” symbol and the ball is thrown with the aid of the three remaining fingers. Still, the results on the pitch in 2011 were lackluster. Because he threw this change at a high velocity (averaging 84.7 mph according to Fangraphs.com) he had little separation between that and his sinker and cutter (thrown on average at 90 mph). Opponents smacked the change around to the tune of a .309 average. Even coming off his solid rookie campaign, Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee reiterated the need for Worley to add an additional pitch. “Hitters will adjust after seeing him,” he told the media. “He has to adjust, too.” Worley had the good fortune of being employed alongside one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. Just a few years prior, Halladay learned a new change-up grip that helped win him the National League Cy Young Away in 2010. Rather than the circle grip he split his ring and middle fingers out wide on what would have been a prototypical two-seam fastball grip, a less wide version of the split-finger fastball. What the former Cy Young winner did was develop a “split-change” that had heavy sink and enough speed variation to make it extremely effective. In camp in 2012, Worley hoped to come away with the new version of his change-up but despite the fact he had shaved a tad off of the velocity (down to 83 mph), he still did not feel comfortable throwing it frequently throughout the year. Nevertheless, Worley had success despite not missing bats was due to his deceptive delivery andoutstanding movement on his sinker/two-seamer. He froze opponents regularly, ringing up a baseball-high 57% of his strikeouts looking. What’s more is that umpires (with some help from his catcher) gave him nearly 10% of his pitches not swung at and thrown OUTSIDE of the strike zone a strike. That’s well above the league average of 7%. It appears, at least judging by the statistics, that opponents figured out not to be fooled as much by the movement or deceptive delivery the second or third time around. Worley’s splits may show signs of how he was affected by his shallow arsenal. According to Baseball-Reference.com’s pitching splits, Worley labored as the lineup continued to turnover in 2012. After the first time through the order, the spectacled one held the opposition to a 620 OPS coupled with a 22% strikeout rate. This success would slide significantly as the game progressed. The second time through the OPS increased to 863 while his strikeout rate dropped to 17%. The third time around, the floodgates would open as his OPS allowed spiked to 971 while his strikeout rate came in at 13%. With a lack of a solid third pitch, was the shifting numbers a result of opponents zeroing in on his sinker and cutter? While those segmentations are small sample sizes, the OPS allowed in the second and third time through the order were noticeably higher than the league average. As Worley said prior to the 2012 season, he was in need of an additional pitch. He threw a solid cutter, one that had the highest percentage of swing-and-misses among his repertoire last season, but that has been below average among all pitch types in that department. There’s probably some hesitation as to why Worley had mistrust in his change. It is a “feel” pitch and, given the fact that he allowed three of the 12 home runs surrendered on the pitch while throwing it less than 8% of the time. Look at his intended location versus his actual location for this change when facing Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alverez: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1362146832_Worley_Spot1.PNG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Worley_Result1.PNG Yes. That ball went way far, far away. The reason was that instead of down and away as desired, this slow mover went middle-in and allowed Alverez to nearly send that pitch back to the other side of the state of Pennsylvania. If a pitcher does not have confidence to hit his spots consistently, that pitcher may withhold throwing that pitch. And it appears that Worley still does not have faith in that offering either. “My changeup is usually just terrible all around, all the time,” Worley told reporters after his first outing this spring. “So if I can not use it, I won’t use it.” True, Worley only faced eight batters so he did not have the lineup turn on him and likely did not need to show them anything else. Yet switching to the American League, where, thanks to the DH, lineups are more robust, it should accelerate the need to refine that pitch. If he is able to hone that pitch, he may have better success against his opponent that second and third time through the order in 2013. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gardy_Mauer.jpg The Twins surprised everyone yesterday but announcing that Joe Mauer has made the decision to relocate to first base after spending his career as one of the game’s best two-way catchers. Comments from Twins general manager Terry Ryan in October made it clear that the team was not totally anticipating Mauer’s move as they entered the planning season for 2014. In his address to the media yesterday, Mauer mentioned that there were occasions that he would take a foul tip and it extremely difficult for him to perform, even mentioning at one point that he had troubles feeling his hands gripping the bat after suffering his concussion. The move early in the offseason will allow the front office to address the issues that arise, namely finding another catcher. On MLBNetwork Radio’s Power Alley yesterday manager Ron Gardenhire shared his thoughts on the decision. In regards to how the decision was made: On how Joe Mauer was handling this: On Mauer’s ability to play first base: On who will replace Mauer behind the plate: Click here to view the article

Joe Mauer has spent a substantial amount of time over the past few weeks on various media outlets attempting to erase memories of his contributions (or lack thereof) to the 99-loss season. He’s working hard. He’s putting on weight. He’s eating Wheaties. He’s saying his prayers. He's drinking nothing but unicorn milk. He’s doing the Rocky IV training in Russia. He’s P90X-ing while Tae Bo-ing. Etc. Etc. Merited or not, he has earned himself a reputation among the media types as being soft. KFAN’s Dan Barreiro had an on-going bit entitled “How Long Would Mauer Milk It?” alluding to various other afflictions (rug burn, paper cuts, etc) and the time the Twins catcher would spend on the bench. This also leaked from being a local gag to a more national sentiment. In fact, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Joe Cowley recently wrote that “Joe Mauer is the guy in the foxhole who’d rather push someone else onto the grenade than risk his hair getting messed up.” That’s a pretty damning view of his character, especially coming from a visiting columnist who does not see the inner workings of the clubhouse last year. True, while he may have ticked off some teammates and writers with his spa treatment in the whirlpool facilities, when he was on the field his performance was substandard for the bar that Mauer had set. Clearly, one of the biggest mitigating factors behind this was his health. It is unfortunate that he has had to jump through these hoops to explain that he wasn’t 100% last year but that comes with the $23 million dollar territory. During an interview on1500ESPN with Tom Pelissero and Phil Mackey, Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra discussed what he perceived as causes for Mauer’s disappointing 2011 season and the effects the various injuries and ailments had on his performance. Because of his leg injury, Vavra said that the Twins catcher had troubles “getting off his backside and favored his legs a bit.” This, he said, led to more head movement as well as him being “unable to turn on the ball.” Vavra, a very astute hitting coach, said he first noticed the change in Mauer late in the 2010 season when he showed less of a tendency to turning on the ball. The subsequent offseason surgery and inability to fully recuperation likely exacerbated his leg issues into the “bi-lateral leg weakness” that sprung up. Without much of a foundation, Mauer struggled to pull the ball in addition to lifting the ball in the air. As anyone who has spent one iota of time watching the Twins knows, Mauer’s bread-and-butter has been his ability to go the other way. Not only is he able to drive the pitch on the outer-half to left field, he often uses that inside-outside to muscle pitches on the inner-half the other way as well. After all, he’s a .436 career hitter when going oppo and, during his magical 2009 MVP season in which he smacked 28 home runs, a high percentage of his home runs were actually hit to left field (11 opposite field home runs). Even though he made his millions feasting on left field, he still showed the potential to sock one to right every now and then. In 2011, that tendency decreased considerable. As you can see, Mauer’s ability to pull the ball has diminished some in comparison to the past several years and compared to his career too: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Pulling.jpg Similarly, Mauer had troubles lifting the ball to center as well, showing little power when smacking a pitch back up-the-middle: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Center.jpg Visually, his batted ball spray chart tells the same story. In 2009 and 2010 Mauer placed hits liberally to mid-to-deep center field and right field. That essentially evaporated in 2011 as only a handful of balls leaked out to (and over) the wall. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Spray_Chart.jpg What all this says is that he did not drive the ball as well as he did as recently as 2010. As the data showed above, Mauer definitely struggled to get around on pitches but what’s more is that he was unable to generate any lift. In 2011, just 21.5% of the balls he hit were of the fly ball variety – the lowest rate of his career. This put him in the category with punch-and-judy slap hitters like Ben Revere, Wilson Valdez, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki and Elvis Andrus – the only hitters ahead of him who hit fewer fly balls. Without a strong foundation, hitters have troubles elevating the ball and without elevation, you lose extra base hit capabilities. A year ago, Vavra cited Denard Span’s head movement as a major impetus behind his drop-off in 2010. That season, Span’s number declined as his groundball rate grew a bit. According to Vavra, Span was demonstrating too much head movement, rising up when the pitch was coming and causing him to shift the plane which led to less square contact. Now Vavra has made a mention of this being one of the issues for Mauer. If Mauer has been doing the same thing, it is not showing up on video footage of him (at least not to the extent that Span’s head movement had shown).Nevertheless, his 55.4% groundball rate in 2011 was the highest of his career and changing his vision plane would be a logical source for this increase. What are the odds that Mauer can bring himself back up into shape for 2012? Mauer had said he has rededicated himself this offseason, reportedly adding 30 pounds after shedding so much during the season last year, but mostly concentrating on his knee: "My workouts at this point were focused on rehabbing the knee, and I really didn't get to work on other things. Being a baseball player, with all the other movements you need to make, you need to focus on total body, and I'm able to do that now.” If healthy in 2012, Mauer should be able to turn on the ball a bit more, adding some lift and distance, and make people forget that he spent in the infirmary. He will likely never match that special 2009 season but as a high average/high on-base, solid defensive catcher, he is capable of being the anchor this team desperately needs. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mauer.jpg Parker Hagemen of Twins Daily subs for a vacationing John Bonnes on this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode and topics included whether the Twins are a legitimately decent team or a mirage, Joe Mauer's hot streak and high strikeout rate, funneling food into your face to become a star, Kyle Gibson's timetable, Mother's Day hijinks, Vance Worley's struggles, Glen Perkins being a nerd again, the pros and cons of cursing, and updating the bar-buying plans. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Or click on the link. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Kubel.jpg Let’s just say Jason Kubel’s return to Minnesota was not exactly met with wild enthusiasm from Twins fandom. Based on the previous season’s production -- a stomach-turning batting line of .216/.293/.317 (avg/obp/slg) with just five home runs in 290 plate appearances -- you could not fault anyone on the outside looking in for faulting the acquisition. Nevertheless Kubel and those close to him maintained that, at 31-years-old, the left-handed outfielder-slash-designated hitter was not over the hill. After all, I’m 33 and if I can still dress myself, cook my own meals and wipe my own bottom, surely Jason Kubel, a finely tuned athlete, could still hit a sphere thrown at him. When he departed the Twins, he may not have thrown kerosene on the club but in his exit interview he criticized the home ballpark, suggesting it was frustrating to hit in the left-handed power suppressing stadium. To make matters worse, Kubel groaned to the Phoenix media of his displeasure at having been a designated hitter -- suggesting it was “boring”. [Writer’s Note: Oh, really? You know what I find boring, Jason? Working at an office for nine hours a day.] On his return to his original organization, he insisted he was just stymied by a quad injury that lingered throughout the 2013 season, and not aging or anything affiliated with that. His quad was now healed. Oh, and that whole Target Field configuration thing? He was fine with that now too. Except all spring training, it didn’t seem fine. He went nine-for-fifty-two. A .196 average with two extra base hits and 17 strikeouts. Certainly some of those plate appearances were against real, honest-to-goodness, major league starters and others were against OH-MY-GAWD-THAT’S-JASON-KUBEL-type pitchers with a tight end’s number on their jersey. While the spring training numbers are meaningless, the performance just reduced the overall confidence in the decision to bring him back. Still, the Twins brass continued to insist they saw a noticeable improvement out of Kubel despite what the numbers said. He was squaring up balls better in the latter portion of the spring and taking better at-bats. That, and the lack of outfield-slash-bench options, made him a prime candidate to head north despite not being on the 40-man roster. Perhaps he needed to be above the Mason-Dixon line in order to hit because, once there, he put on a show. As the current American League batting average leader, Kubel has begun the season 13-for-29 (.448) with five extra base hits including one long blast at Target Field, a stadium which now can’t hold him. Kubel’s biggest improvement at the plate has been his connectivity. Last year his swing was holier than the Pope. In his contact rate heat map from ESPN/trumedia, you see that his swings were often empty -- he swung and missed on nearly 33% of his swings, well above the league average rate of 22%. This season, while still above average, he has reined in the errant swings to a more manageable rate (25%). Here is a side-by-side of his contact heat map with 2013 on the left and 2014 on the right (click to embiggen): Download attachment: Kubel_Contact.jpg What’s more is that when Kubel did make contact last year, it was not only weak, it was often late. His pull rate dropped considerably. Download attachment: Kubel_Spray.png Where this really stands out is against the fastball, a pitch Kubel used to flourish against. As I wrote at the time of the Kubel acquisition: “One of Kubel's biggest issues in 2013 was his inability to handle fastballs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in 2012 Kubel hit .298/.368/.616 with 20 home runs and a whopping .309 well-hit average. That dropped considerably in 2013 when he finished the year hitting .261/.315/.400 with just 3 home runs and a well-hit average of .171 off of fastballs.” Yes, the production was bad against the cheese but it was not until an comparison of his (fastball) spray charts of last year and this year when facing that it is clear Kubel may be fully healed as he and the coaching staff insisted. Last season, he was unable to get around on the heat, often hitting lazy fly balls. This year he is once again yanking that pitch into and over the right field wall. Download attachment: Kubel_Spray_FB.png All standard small sample size warnings apply. However, Kubel’s early season production in addition to these indicators are reassuring that he is in good health. If he can remain in the lineup, the Twins could wind up with a solid bargain out of a minor league signing. There still is, of course, a lot of baseball left but, so far, the signs are good for Jason Kubel. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Doumit_Pic.jpg On Saturday, May 4, Ryan Doumit, at .203, was not even hitting his weight. With a slugging percentage of .291 to boot, the Minnesota Twins’ switch-hitting catcher/DH was a few nights of binge eating hot wings from matching that number as well. As a regular guest of manager Ron Gardenhire’s vital fifth spot in the batting order, Doumit’s woes directly impacted the team’s offense. The offense had concluded April with just 92 runs scored – ahead of only the Chicago White Sox at 89. Last year, while providing crucial support in the heart of the order, the vast majority of his plate appearances came from the left side of the plate. His total numbers are most buoyed when he succeeds as a left-handed hitter. In 2012, he hit a respectable .288/.335/.488 and dropped 13 of his 18 home runs from the port side. That carried him through the year and earned him his contract extension. This year, however, Doumit has provided scant returns from either side of the plate. That is until the trip to Boston. Despite leaving Thursday night without a hit, Doumit did a great deal of damage in a two day span which included six hits in nine at-bats, two home runs and a double. Heading into Fenway, he was the owner of a sad .203 average and a middle infielder-esque .554 OPS. He had not hit one jack job all year. When the Twins left the city, Doumit’s average was 30 points higher, he had smacked two dingers and his OPS had 100 points added to it. What changed was his ability to square up on pitches…in the zone. [Pause while audience gasps.] Doumit entered the Boston series not necessarily chasing after pitches out of the zone at a higher rate than last year but he was making contact with pitches out of the zone. Opponents – fully aware of the fact that Doumit is a pull hitter – have attempted to defuse his power by feeding him pitches away, hoping he will try to pull them and thereby turn them over for weak grounders. Here’s a better visual reference to understand what was happening during the series in Cleveland: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1368168501_Doumit_2-0.JPG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Doumit_3-2_1.jpg As a pull hitter, it is not a surprise to see teams attacking him with pitches away. Additionally, they have increased the use of changeups on him (from 15% to 22%), in order to see if he would roll over on those offerings. These past few games, however, we have seen something different out of Doumit. Compare those points of contact to the ones he made while in Boston: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Doumit_HR1.JPG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Doumit_1B.JPG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Doumit_HR2.JPG Clearly, when a hitter makes contact with pitches in the zone, they are better able to square the ball off the barrel of the bat. Doumit’s poor pitch selection may point to why he has had an inordinate amount of grounders put into play this year (54%) compared to his career average (43%). Without the elevation, he has suffered a power outage. Heading into the Boston showdown, Doumit put the ball on the ground 35 times versus the 31 times he got underneath and lifted it. That changed significantly in Massachusetts when he went vertical eight times and bounced three times (save for Thursday night’s game). It is no surprise, then, that when we witness Doumit accumulate extra base hits, he is elevating the ball much better. Another curious aspect to Doumit’s inauspicious start has been his inability to make pitchers pay when he has been in favorable counts. In 2012, when he had been up on pitchers, he absolutely raked - posting a .327 average and a 1.026 OPS when ahead in the count. This year, that average is down to .154 with a OPS of .584. The results in these situations circle back to his expansion of the zone. Two of the three examples above came in hitter’s counts. Is this a corner-turn moment for Ryan Doumit? It is definitely plausible that the Twins are seeing the old Doumit return with the swing decisions exercised in Boston. This would be wildly beneficial as the team has suffered with his lack of production in the heart of the order. Keep an eye on his swing location through the upcoming home stand to see if this increased output continues. Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr]Download attachment: USATSI_7985742.jpg If you missed the All-Star festivities at Target Field over the past few days, perhaps the incentive of seeing one of baseball’s hottest teams will bring you back downtown at a more reasonable price. For most of their existence, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were a league laughingstock, destined to finish last in the AL East for eternity. Then they got new ownership, smartened up and figured out how to beat the financial powerhouses from the big cities up the Atlantic coast. Since 2007, they have won 84 or more games a year and have made the playoffs in four of the last six years. Everything they touched seemed to turn to gold: Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman, James Loney, Matt Joyce, Kyle Farnsworth and Fernando Rodney -- all unexpected contributors who melded well with Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and David Price. These darlings continued to propel themselves towards the top of arguably baseball’s toughest division. As Jonah Keri called it in his seminal book, it was the extra 2% that elevated this organization. It was squeezing the maximum amount of talent out of struggling former top prospects or targeting unwanted free agents with unseen upside. It was developing prospects better and more efficiently to replace departing stars. It was moving soon-to-be departing stars for prospects. In short, it was an impressive top-to-bottom successful approach that turned the losers Devil Rays into the winning Rays. But 2014 has been another story. On June 11, the Rays held the worst record in baseball, harkening back to the Devil Ray era. While it may have seemed as if the Rays were immune to things like pitching injuries, 2014 has proven that their methods are not infallible. First it was starting pitcher Matt Moore, who after finishing 2013 at 17-4 with a 3.29 ERA. This year he lasted 10 innings before he needed Tommy John. Former Rookie of the Year pitcher Jeremy Hellickson has faltered so much that the team made the decision to send him down to Double-A to figure things out. This leaves the pressure on staff leader David Price -- whom the team is considering selling before the deadline per their modus operandi of trading prime value for heaps of prospect talent. On top of that, underperformance from key offensive contributors like last year’s Rookie of the Year Will Myers (injured as well) and Longoria has led to a downturn in runs scored. All this means that the Minnesota will will have several easy home victories coming out of the break, right? Not so fast. If the past thirty games are any indication, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Since bottoming out on June 11, the Rays have gone on to win 19 of the 30 games leading up to the break and no longer have MLB’s worst record. In comparison the Twins, despite a nice road trip surge before the All-Star Game, have finished 13-17 in that span. This is a pivotal series and homestand for the Twins as the team’s front office will likely make the assessment of where they stand at the upcoming trade deadline. Sweep the Rays and win a few more against Cleveland and Chicago and the brass may consider not trading away key players like Kurt Suzuki but rather contend for the final Wild Card spot. Get your seat: Baseball’s second-half is underway. [/hr] Unable to go to Target Field over the All-Star Weekend? Try getting there this weekend. On Friday, Kyle Gibson gets to redeem himself from his clunker at Tropicana. Saturday night’s game will showcase Tampa Bay’s All-Star pitcher, David Price. On Sunday afternoon Phil Hughes will attempt to continue his dominant first-half performance. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg About a year ago, the Minnesota Twins left Florida with a roster of 25, bound for the Twin Cities and, ultimately, the basement of the American League Central. Quite a bit of turnover has occurred from that collection of individuals – a whopping 12 from the 2012 Opening Day roster are no longer with the organization. Several of those players caught on elsewhere but have deemed unfit to place on another team’s 40-man roster. A few of those are out of major league baseball. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Among the departed is last year’s Opening Day starter (Carl Pavano, who remains unsigned because of a life-threatening injury sustained while shoveling), the team’s closer (Matt Capps, who was recently cut from the Cleveland Indians but was retained on a minor league deal), two of the five bench bats (Sean Burroughs, unsigned, and Luke Hughes, who last played in Australia) and their situational lefty in the ‘pen (Matt Maloney, who may not pitch much due to recovering from Tommy John surgery). Beyond that group, Opening Day third baseman Danny Valencia failed to catch on with the Baltimore Orioles this spring and will start the season with their Triple-A affiliate. Reliever Jeff Gray did not merit enough of a role to even make the Chicago White Sox’s 40-man either and will be stashed with their International League team as well. Think about that for a second. These were supposed to be either key contributors or maneuverable pieces that turned into flotsam and now a vast majority of the other 25 teams would not bend over to pick up for nothing. Just one year removed from the Twins evaluators determining these guys were among their best 25 players. [How did they ever win 66? It’s a miracle. It’s a miracle.] With the finalization of the roster occurring over the next few days, the Twins staff will be attempting to move on from a group that went 6-16 through the season’s first month. The objective of the offseason was to create a rotation that can keep the Twins in the game long enough to remain competitive but this year, the staff is having troubles identifying their number one guy as the Opening Day starting pitcher still remains unknown (but is widely believed to be Worley). Outside of Jamey Carroll, the bench will consist of athletically talented yet unproven players in Eduardo Escobar, Wilkin Ramirez and Darin Mastroianni. Maloney and Gray will be replaced in the bullpen with Tyler Robertson and Ryan Pressly, two guys who have 25 major league innings between the pair. While the success of the team is dependent on the rotation, the starting lineup and defense, depth plays a large role as well. Is this group solid enough to finish April at or near .500, let alone for the duration of the season? Click here to view the article

How Phil Hughes Worked Of all starting pitchers who threw more than 100 innings last year, Phil Hughes led the group with a first-pitch strike rate of 71% -- one of only two pitchers who cracked the 70% mark (Arizona’s Patrick Corbin being the other). Naturally, Hughes continued that first-pitch strike tendency in his first start with the Minnesota Twins, turning the count over to 0-1 on 19 of the 24 batters he faced. Yesterday, sticking mainly with his heat in those situations (20 of 24), Hughes has been known to flip a get-me-over curveball on the first-pitch (21% of the time last year). However he twisted just one curve in yesterday’s game. While with the Yankees, when Hughes had his opponents on the ropes, he turned to his fastball -- a tendency he has displayed regularly. In two-strike situations against the White Sox, Hughes targeted the upper portion of the zone and above, getting five of his seven strikeouts on the high heat (as shown below). Download attachment: strike-zone (1).png Trevor Plouffe and the Other Direction No one will ever claim Trevor Plouffe’s bread-and-butter was taking a pitch the other way. After all, when Plouffe went on his home run binge a few years back, all those pitches were yanked into the left field seats. Yet, so far this year, Plouffe has six hits, four of which have been to RIGHT field. Here’s the interesting part: When Plouffe did go the other way last year, it mostly produced flies and pops. Those pitches were ones he was fooled on and fought off -- mostly sliders and fastballs down and away: Download attachment: strike-zone (2).png This season, Plouffe has DRIVEN pitches that have been up in the zone, shooting line drives to right field: Download attachment: strike-zone (3).png Plouffe having success going the other way? What’s next, cats sleeping with dogs? Anyone Heard of Chris Colabello? Starting the year 5-for-10 with three doubles (ok, one may have been a gift) and six RBIs is a strong way to jump out of the gate for Chris Colabello. This spring Colabello spoke about how he was approaching his at-bats and said he moved back off the plate in the minor leagues when teams began to attack him on the inner-half. Last year he didn’t see too many pitches on the inside portion of the plate so he inched up closer to stay in the same zip code as where pitchers were targeting him. Here is his pitch frequency chart from 2013: Download attachment: strike-zone (4).png Away, away and more away. This year the modus operandi has been the same: Download attachment: strike-zone (5).png What’s more is that the big right-hander has seen almost exclusively fastballs. It will be interesting to see how teams change their approach against Colabello as his success continues. Strike Three To Joe Mauer Download attachment: strike-zone (7).png Juuuuuust a bit outside. Download attachment: USATSI_7848991.jpg All charts and data provided by ESPN Stats & Info ~~~ Thanks to the Twins come back win over the White Sox on Thursday, you can get 50% off a Large of Extra Large pizza on Friday when you use the “TWINSWIN” promotion code at PapaJohns.com. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: image.jpg Per the Star Tribune's Joe Christensen, the Twins have announced that they will be sending Carl Pavano to the DL with a right anterior capsular strain in his throwing shoulder and Nick Blackburn will be activated from the DL. Pavano's obvious velocity decline throughout the season and the effect his shoulder had on his repertoire was a fairly strong indication that the right-hander would eventually have a date with the DL. Meanwhile Blackburn's rehab assignment has not been great - he's made two starts, thrown six innings and has six hits, five of which have been doubles, as well as a 2-to-4 K-to-BB ratio. A discussion on this has already been started. Please comment on it here. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Age: 23 (DOB: 09/23/1989) 2012 Stats (AA): 10-13, 149.2 IP, 4.87 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 151/78 K/ BB ETA: 2014 On paper, Trevor May has all the makings of an elite pitcher. At six-foot-five and 215 pounds, the 22-year-old right-hander has the stature of a legit workhorse. “Just his build, he is built just like a pitcher,” remarked Dusty Wathan, May’s manager at Reading (AA) last year. “If you were going to build a starting pitcher you would start with a body like that.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Beyond his physical presence, May fires low-to-mid 90s bullets and has a decent curveball, a developing changeup and has been working on a hard slider. Based on this pedigree, May would find himself a frequent guest in the top five when Baseball America would generate the Phillies’ annual Top 10 Prospects list. In fact, heading into the 2012 season, May was the baseball periodical’s choice for Philadelphia’s number one prospect. Sure, an assist goes to a Phillie farm system which had been harvested to allow May to ascend to the head of the class but the fact remained he got there by doing what he has done so well: strike fools out. Of course, along with the high totals of missed bats comes an unhealthy amount of missed strike zones as well. His mechanics reportedly have been inconsistent and off-balanced leading to the heartburn-inducing walk totals. After five years in the Phillies’ system, the organization may have soured on the idea that he would ever be able to make the adjustments necessary to reach his projected potential. Void of power-armed pitchers in their system, the Minnesota Twins are willing to gamble that they will see more of the former and less of the latter after they traded Ben Revere – one of their own Baseball America top five prospect graduates – to acquire May. The Good In 2011, May led the Florida State League (high-A) in strikeouts with 208 in 151 innings pitched. To put this into context, in the past 12 years only he and Tampa starter Matt Moore (208 in 2010) have registered more than 200 strikeouts in that league. May would follow that performance by leading the Eastern League too, a league in which he was two years younger than the average age. Based on those figures, it is hard to not dwell on the potential upside. What would be a good comparable? May envisions himself to be a Matt Cain-type of pitcher, as he told reporters at TwinsFest: After six consecutive seasons of 200+ innings and ERA+ of 126 in that time, certainly any team would take a Matt Cain duplicate. The Bad “All I’ve got to do is get his command and I think I’ll be OK,” May had self-evaluated. Will that be like Delmon Young saying: “All I’ve got to do is just stop swinging so much and I think I’ll be OK”? After making improvements to his control-based numbers in 2011, May’s walk totals trended the other way in 2012. So, in addition to leading the Eastern League in strikeouts, May also took home the dubious honor for most free passes issued (78). Last year the walks seemed to sneak up on him. After posting an 88-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio through the end of June, May sudden posted a 21-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the month of July, completely skewing his numbers. To make matters worse his home run total took a significant jump from his previous season (8 in 151.1 innings with Clearwater) to this past year (22 in 149.2 innings with Reading) as well. The Bottom Line May has the stuff to quickly ascend in the Twins system – especially given the relatively lack of talent ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, he has plenty of refining to do. While the Twins have been short on strikeout pitchers, as an organization they still thrive on precision and will likely want to see improvements out of May in that department. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler.] View full article

Before the spikes have even hit the turf at Hammonds Stadium, manager Ron Gardenhire has gone on the record as saying Denard Span is his 2012 center fielder. "[span's] going to lead off and be my center fielder. That’s my expectations. If somebody were to tell me that he’s not able to do that, then we’d have to ad lib. But if Denard comes in healthy, then he’s my center fielder, there’s no questions to me about that." Apparently, Ben Revere, who performed admirably in center in Span’s absence, was just keeping the position warm for the incumbent. There is probably little doubt that Gardenhire is basing some of his decision on the fact that Revere has a substandard arm. From the wisdom of the crowd, Fangraphs.com polled their readers to compile a collective scouting report on all players. Their contingency gave Revere’s Arm Strength a 4. This was by far the worst rating among all center fielders and a 90-point difference between him and the leader, Rick Ankiel. Also viewed critically was his release: the Fangraphs.com crowd said that his release rated as a 28, the third-lowest mark in that category too. It doesn’t take advanced metrics to recognize that Revere has a weak arm. It takes a bit more scouting acumen to see that he has a long arm throw which delays his release. Combine these two factors and it equates to extracurricular activity on the base paths. The question is what did Revere’s skill set cost the Twins and does it preclude him from being the starting center fielder? According to BillJamesOnline.net, the website which warehouses a vast majority of the Baseball Info Solution’s defensive data, they peg Revere’s arm as the worst among qualified center fielders in 2012 (minimum 700 innings) – adding data to the fan’s observations. He managed to accumulate 3 kills (throwing out runners) but allowed 63.9% of runners who had an opportunity to advance to the next base did so during his watch. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Arms_(2012).jpg Here’s what we know about Revere: He’s fast. Because of this, we might also assume that he gets to many balls quickly, even those that fall to the ground. If he can get to more balls quicker than slower center fielders like, say, Rick Ankiel, one would think it would have some effect in preventing coaches from sending runners around the bases. Until we have other data available like how quickly an outfielder gets to a ball or how much velocity someone throws or how quick their release is, we are simply not going to have a comprehensive overview of how to judge someone’s arm. Still, looking at how many times opposing teams have had the opportunity to advance a base on him (89) versus how many times they decided to move up (56), you have to reach the conclusion that Revere’s lack of an arm has an adverse affect even if he is able to get to the ball quicker than the rest. Allowing runners to move up has been the crux of the argument for those wanting to keep Revere out of center. After all, in addition to patrolling the deepest part of the field, a center field has one of the longest throws to home plate among the three outfield positions and has a hefty chore when throwing to third base as well. In Revere’s case, opponents took note of his arm strength last year and used it to their advantage, wheeling around second-to-third or third-to-home. Understandably, if opposing teams recognize this opening, they will like walk through it at a high rate and put themselves in scoring position whenever possible. That idea certainly makes a manager cringe but, ultimately, it might be the wrong thing to focus on when deciding who should man center field. Moving Revere to left field definitely cuts down the distance on the throws, giving him an opportunity to cut off runners advancing to third or home. On the other side of the coin is the fact that Revere can cover ground like no other. Last year, Revere finished tied for third in Plus/Minus among center fielders with a plus-twenty (+20) mark. That means he was 20 plays better than the average center fielder which added up to 11 runs saved. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Range_(2012).jpg What this boils down to is that by the Plus/Minus system, it is much more valuable to prevent hits than it is to allow the opposing team the opportunity to move into scoring position. In terms of his arm, Revere has spent the offseason trying to improve in that area. Revere told 1500ESPN’s Judd Zulgad and Joe Anderson that he has been throwing “long toss with a football” to build strength. And while he may be able to add a few MPHs, his long arm action still needs to be pared down to shorten his release time. Additionally, there are no real precedence set to say how much a player’s arm can develop over an offseason so there is no way of telling how much Revere can improve his arm. To be sure, Denard Span is no slouch in center himself, especially in his 500-plus innings there last year. While he was not quite at Revere’s catch ‘em all caliber, he managed to save six runs which ranked him as the 11th best center fielder according to the P/M system. In the end, moving Revere out of center may play towards his lack of arm strength however it might wind up costing the Twins some outs when he is no longer patrolling the spacious center at Target Field. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: lukebard3.jpg Pitching, it has been said, is a war of attrition. The acronym, TINSTAPP, was invented and has been thrown around a lot in reference to this phenomenon. It means, “There Is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect”. Think your club has just landed the next big arm in the draft? Nope, there goes his elbow. Or shoulder. Look no further than the Twins organization and pitcher’s draft in recent years. Alex Wimmers (2010, 21st overall), Kyle Gibson (2009, 22nd overall) and Matt Bashore (2009, 46th overall) have all had their routes to the majors delayed by one injury or another. In the case of Bashore, his constant medical attention got him released from the Twins. While Gibson and Wimmers could have healthy careers ahead of them, the misses in the past few years have left the farm system lacking top tiered talent ready to feed the majors. Surely after selecting five-tooled high school athlete Byron Buxton with the number two overall pick, the Twins’ War Room shifted its focus to re-arming the system. At the end of the first round, the Twins nabbed right-handers Jose Orlando Berrios (Papa Juan XXIII H.S., PR) and Luke Bard (Georgia Tech), two pitchers whom they said they had on their board ranked between 25 and 50. If you believe the collective wisdom gathered at Baseball America, you will find that the Twins placed higher value on both pitchers than the minds and sources at Baseball America did. According to Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings, Berrios came in at 49th overall (the Twins grabbed him at 32) while Bard was ranked 93rd overall (Twins selected him at 42). Of course, this does not necessarily mean they reached too far. If the Twins were targeting right-handed pitchers, not many remained on the board when their time was on the clock. At the same time, you could argue that, given the state of the entire system, the team should have gone with the best available player regardless of position. Nevertheless, pitching is one of the more significant needs and integral part of the team’s success. Minnesota’s VP of Player Personnel, Mike Radcliff, told FSN viewers that the attention in Day Two would revolve around uncovering more pitching. “Pitching is obviously a need in our organization; we believe it’s a need in every organization,” Radcliff told FSN studio hosts Anthony LaPanta and Roy Smalley. Starting at noon on Tuesday, the Twins will be on the clock with the third pick in the second round (#63 overall) and if the neither the Astros or the A’s are so inclined, Minnesota could wind up drafting one of its own: Mitch Brown (Baseball America’s 44th overall), a right-handed pitcher out of Rochester Century. Following that, the Twins have selections at 72 and 97, which could mean if they stick to addressing the pitching needs, they could wind up with one or two more of 25 remaining pitching prospects rated in the Top 100 by Baseball America. Needless to say, Tuesday will be a busy day as the organization attempts to combat attrition among the pitching ranks. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Eddie Rosario.jpg Reports from Puerto Rico suggest that Twins prospect Eddie Rosario has tested positive for a banned substance and could cost him a 50-game suspension in 2014. While the reports are still unconfirmed, according to an article in Sport LivePR from November 18, Rosario had informed his winter league team that he tested positive in a recent MLB drug test. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]According to Frankie Thon, the general manager of the team Rosario plays for, Rosario reportedly took some pills during his arm rehabilitation that were on the banned list. Thon also said that Rosario would be allowed to play in the offseason league due to a new agreement between the MLB and the winter leagues. Here is the explanation from the article through Google translation: Rosario spoke with the Puerto Rican website elnuevodia.com and said he was informed of the failed test after playing in the Arizona Fall League. The article also stated that his lawyers are currently appealing the suspension but Rosario believed there is little chance that the decision will be overturned. Rosario also said that the pills he took were they same kind he had taken in 2011 after he was struck in the face with a line drive while in Class A Beloit. The Twins outfield/second base prospect, who was recently named as Baseball Prospectus’ seventh rated prospect in the system, his coming off a solid year in which he hit .302/.350/.460 with 10 home runs and 32 doubles split between New Britain and Fort Myers. There is no official word on Rosario’s status from the Minnesota Twins. Click here to view the article

The book on Ben Revere is that he is a slap-hitting, bloop-knocking, fast-running, somersaulting offensive contributor. In his first full season at the major league level last year, he demonstrated outstanding contact. Of course, the catch was that his contact did not go anywhere. Revere would drive the ball into the ground and try to leg it out. In fact, among those with at least 400 plate appearances last year, his 68.5% ground ball rate led baseball. When he did put the ball in the air, the majority of the time it was a dying quail just past the arms of an outstretched infielder. Had Revere been on a slow-pitch softball team, none of his hits would have left the yard. From his hit distribution chart from TexasLeaguers.com (an aptly named website in this case) of his 2011 batted balls, you can see the Twins would need to haul in their fences a good 150 feet in order to turn Revere into a home run hitter: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Revere_2011.png The rookie season results were none too impressive for the outfielder. In 450 plate appearances, Revere posted a .267 average but matched that with a disappointing on-base percentage (.310) and non-existent slugging percentage (.309). Because of his lack of power, any extra base hits would have to come in the form of shooting the ball through the drawn in outfield alignment. While his time with the Twins in 2012 has been brief, it has felt like he is getting a bit more distance on the ball than he had a year ago. In Milwaukee he doubled on a ball that one-hopped the warning track – a veritable Thome-ian blast for Revere. Later, he flew out to center in which the center fielder had to gallop all the way to the dirt to field. Last night in Chicago, he sent White Sox center fielder Alejandro De Aza near the warning track to nab another fly ball. Perhaps this was all based on a small sample sized memory but it felt like Revere was sending more pitches deeper into the ballpark then he ever did last year. Turns out, I wasn't crazy. A cursory check at the website BaseballHeatMaps.com confirms that the sophomore is indeed getting more distance on his drives versus a year ago. In 2011, his fly balls and line drives averaged 243.47 feet off of his bat. This year, he’s added almost 30 feet, hitting his flies and liners 272.87 feet. Twins fans like to offer the Kirby Puckett comparison for Ben Revere’s potential. After all, Puckett, like Revere, began his career as a light-hitting speedster. And it was not until Puck’s third year in the majors that he hit 31 home runs after hitting a total of four in the previous two seasons. Eternal Twins optimists believe that maybe, just maybe, the 24-year-old Revere can somehow elevate his power the same way Puckett did at age-26. Now after watching him for almost two seasons worth of at bats, I do not see in anyway Revere adds legitimate clout like Puckett had. His swing is too direct to the ball and drives down at the pitch, leading to a high amount of grounders and line drives – which is perfectly suited to fit his speed. If Revere is not capable of developing any sort of real power, why would the fact that he’s driving his few fly balls and occasional liners a tad further noteworthy? Because Revere’s spray chart became so predictable – to the point where a manager in 2011 could draw a chalk line at the edge of where Revere’s batted balls would go – defending him became easier. Outfielders played in and cut down some of the bloop hits and were also positioned close enough to the infield to keep Twins base-runners from advancing beyond one base if Revere happened to hit cleanly. For obvious reasons, you do not want to encourage a ground ball hitter like Revere putting the ball in the air too frequently but, if he’s able to redirect the occasional pitch towards the deeper part of the park, opposing teams may rethink their defensive alignment against Revere and move their starting position further back. This may open up the portion of the field that he excelled at doinking pitches towards in 2011. In all, because he does not draw a high percentage of walks, Revere’s on-base numbers are strongly correlated with his ability to hit safely. In his minor league career, he routinely had batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) well above the .330 mark. At the major league level, his BABIP has decreased to .262 through 558 plate appearances. Now oh-for his past two games, dropping his 2012 line from a pre-game .270/.341/.432 to a replacement-level .244/.311/.390, Revere needs every inch of the field opened up to his advantage. Keeping the opposing outfielders honest may be a way to clear up some real estate and get a few more hits. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: sh_twitter-icon.jpg Aaron and special guest co-hosts Parker Hageman and Joe Nelson talk about Trevor Plouffe's power explosion, Liam Hendriks' long-ball troubles, whether or not the Twins should be looking to trade Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and other veterans, why a filthy Twitter is a good thing, the development of power pitchers, and a phone call from a vacationing John Bonnes. Here are: the podcastthe rss feedthe podcast on itunes Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7864842.jpg Trevor Plouffe was essentially an afterthought this winter viewed as a third base placeholder until Miguel Sano takes the position from him. By the grace of the inelasticity of an elbow ligament, Plouffe's job security increased considerably. Sano's misfortune would be Plouffe's godsend. And, to his credit, the 27-year-old has made the most of this opportunity. After several seasons of mishandling the hot corner and minimal offensive contributions, Plouffe's game took giant leaps forward in 2014. Defensively he has looked improved and the magical defensive metrics reflect it. Offensively, there have been signs that he has matured as a player like using the entire field and laying off pitches out of the zone. Of course, Twins fans have gotten excited once before for the big breakout. In 2012, Plouffe gained attention by hitting roughly 750 home runs (estimate) in June and July. At that time, I documented his mechanical changes since his rookie year that allowed him to pull the ball with such might. By quieting his bat movement and aggressively deploying his hips, he fired red-seamed rockets into the outfield bleachers. Part of what made that stretch so successful for Plouffe was his ability to let it fly early in the count. According to ESPN/TruMedia, he was 14-for-26 and banged 7 of his 14 home runs in that situation. Of course, the baseball bombardment would not last as teams adjusted to his new approach and Plouffe could not reciprocate in kind. Following what felt like a lost year in 2013, Plouffe overhauled his strategy at the plate and refined his mechanics in order to become a more complete hitter. The first change was improving his base. Prior to this season, Plouffe demonstrated a wider stance with his weight distribution on his back leg. This season, the stance has been shortened and his distribution is more balanced. http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/5-07-2014/HlyjAq.gif In his swing, or more specifically his leg lift, we see a muted version of the front leg lift. Over the previous two seasons, Plouffe used a higher lift and shifted more of his weight onto his back leg before shifting forward. Not only that but he also This creates a situation with plenty power but also overcommitting to fastballs and the selling out on the pull-side. Now, with his balanced approach, he is able to allow the ball to travel deeper while staying back. This gives him the ability to drive the ball hard to all fields with impressive results -- he is hitting a robust .333 when driving the ball to right field and .357 up-the-middle. http://i.imgur.com/lkBGD89.gif2012 http://i.imgur.com/sWmO59U.gif2013 http://i.imgur.com/dbacd8u.gif2014 Plouffe explained this change in his approach to 1 500ESPN.com’s Derek Wetmore at the end of April by saying: Will this approach be sustainable? Plouffe has thrived this year by smacking pitches that have remained up in the zone for hits. In fact, his .340 average on pitches in the upper-half is 100 points better than the average. It is clear that this trend has been spotted by opposing teams when you consider how Plouffe has been pitched as of late and his performance in that time (.132/.175/.211 since May 1). Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg Now, as you can see from the ESPN heat map, teams are throwing him down-and-away. Over his career he’s hit just .128 on pitches in that area and is a miserable 0-for-17 this year when putting those balls into play. Perhaps as a result of this new attack, Plouffe has also started to stray from his newfound approach of swinging at just pitches in the zone. Prior to May, Plouffe chased after 15.5% of pitches out of the zone, says ESPN/TruMedia. This month he’s expanded this region and offered at 26.7% of all out-of-zone pitches. Unless Plouffe can adjust to that plan of attack -- or capitalize on mistakes -- he is almost certain to see his numbers fall. That being said, Plouffe’s maturity and willingness to make these changes bodes well for his ability respond. Click here to view the article