Parker Hageman

Download attachment: MItch Williams.jpg For Twins fans who were fortunate enough to tune into last night's Twins-Rangers broadcast on FOX, they were treated with the soothing baritone of former pitcher Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams. Turns out, Williams is the new Joe Morgan of saying semi-crazy things on the air. In the top of the first, Denard Span on first base and discussing Texas's starter Derek Holland return from the disabled list, Williams said that he "does not believe in the slide step" - the abbreviated leg kick in which a pitcher expedites his throw home in order to keep the runner from stealing a base. His reasoning behind that was that it "leads to injuries". Interesting. I had not heard that theory from anyone, anywhere. The kicker of the evening which forced me to head to the bar and watch the game without any volume was his explanation of the non-balk call on Holland once Ben Revere reached first. Here is the video (forgive the quality of the video, it is shot of the TV from my camera phone). During the play, you will hear Williams emphatically deny that Holland's move to first to pick off Revere is not a balk. (Also, in the background you will hear FOX's microphones picking up Ron Gardenhire's choice words towards the umpiring crew for their miss on that call.) Williams' central argument revolves around the landing point of Holland's front foot - that it "has to be in the middle between home and first". Prior to that, he tells the viewing audience that Holland's foot does not come "closing to crossing" and that he is at least "45 degrees". The problem with Williams' call is twofold: (1) It was not what the Twins had beef with and (2) by MLB's rule, it was almost certainly a balk. According the MLB's rule, section 8.05: What you see in the clip is Holland's lead foot crossing his body during the leg kick - indicating that he is going to pitch to home plate or, as per the rules, it was a "motion naturally associated with his pitch." Revere breaks on this movement convinced that Holland is going towards the plate. That is what Gardy and the team is so worked up about. Holland's motion clearly was an attempt to deceive the runner. Needless to say, the balk rule is pretty muddled and open for interpretation. However, Williams, who is, again, a former pitcher and a part-time broadcaster, is completely unfamiliar with the balk rules. Nowhere in the written rules do they discuss a "45 degree" angle in which a left-handed pitcher's foot must land. Much like some imaginary line in which a batter crosses when check-swinging for a strike, this also does not exist in the rules. Hopefully before his next national broadcast somebody at FOX gives Williams a copy of MLB's rules to read. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7814548.jpg There have been few examples of teams having their Opening Day starter the previous season see his value deflate to the point where he clears waivers a year later and is traded for a stack of dollar bills. But that’s exactly what the Twins did with Vance Worley when they traded him to the Pirates for cash considerations. The interest was understandably minimal, said Twins assistant GM Rob Antony, after the 26-year-old right-hander passed through the waiver system unscathed but, based on his age and his past track record, there were several teams that inquired about him. “There was some (interest) right after he cleared waivers, some teams looked at him as their reclamation project,” said Antony. “So there were a few teams that expressed interest. I wouldn’t say anybody was jumping through the phone. I think everyone was looking at him the same way we were: What happened to this guy? We used to have really good reports on him but now they are not so good, otherwise they would have claimed him.” With the Rochester rotation as crowded as it is and Worley’s rapid descent on the organization’s depth chart, the Twins recognized it was in the best interest of the player to allow him to re-establish his value elsewhere. The Pirates are known for their interest in groundball pitchers and Worley, despite all of his struggles last year, demonstrated a high worm-burner rate of 47%. “I told him when we outrighted him that if somebody came and I saw an opportunity for him, a better path back to the majors, that I would try to do something for him,” Antony admitted. “I think maybe a change of scenery would be good for him or gone well for him. Sometimes it starts to snowball on you and you look for a fresh start.” Earlier in the spring, Worley acknowledged that he struggled to keep the ball down in the zone, a fact that was punctuated with the sound of loud impact. In 10 starts last year, opponents banged him around to the deafening tune of .381/.427/.557. When opponents put the ball in play (and they did so a lot considering he missed very few bats), they were able reach safely over 40% of the time -- the highest in the game with a minimum of 40 innings pitched. “For whatever reason, he didn’t throw the ball as hard as he could in the past, he couldn’t get the ball down in the zone and he couldn’t figure out why. I think there was some mechanical things we tried to do with him that he wasn’t able to do, to change some of things that he knew he had to change.” This spring was more of the same. While there were issues identified, Worley struggled to correct them. “You’d see him throw some good pitches with angle down in the zone and the next batter he’d elevate and they’d hit it in the gap. There just wasn’t consistency.” Remaining down in the zone regularly was Worley’s biggest issue both last season and this spring. Reviewing the data from ESPN/TruMedia, we find that Worley’s location was indeed higher in the strike zone than his previous seasons. In 2011, he was up in the zone on just 29.1% of his pitches. The next season that dropped to 26.8%. This past year, however, a whopping 36% of his offerings were elevated. Download attachment: worley_2013.jpg 2013 Download attachment: Worley_2012.png 2012 His two-seamer with run was now not moving with the same arm-side run that he displayed in 2012. He was not working pitches down in the zone with the same frequency. As a result: Whammy. How does a pitcher go from the Opening Day starter one season to being someone else’s reclamation project the next? “We were going off his past successes as much as what we saw in the spring last year,” Antony replied. “He didn’t pitch like a guy who should be handed the ball on Opening Day but that was the way it stacked up and he had been there and I think it tells you a little bit about the state of our pitching last year. I just don’t think you can run scared of that. The guy was two years removed from being third in the National League Rookie of the Year.” The Twins could be facing another deal similar to Worley's if Scott Diamond, who was reportedly put on waivers on Wednesday, slides through unclaimed. Like Worley, Diamond has dealt with minor ailments and poor results that have devalued his stock. Click here to view the article

Question: Why is this graph smiling? Answer: Because its owner just locked in $10.3 million guaranteed. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1331276533_Perkins.png On Thursday morning, the Twins announced that they have extended Glen Perkins through 2015with an option for 2016. Heading into 2011, based on his substandard results such as his strike out rate, this would have been unheard of, a Twitter punch line among baseball fans. Glen Perkins to a multi-year deal? Get the eff out of here. Without question, it was hard to see this season coming. Take Baseball Prospectus - an entity that touts it as having “deadly accurate” predictions - and their forecast on Perkins: “Perkins clashed publicly with management in 2009, claiming that it had wrongfully downplayed the severity of his elbow injury. He then had an awful spring training and first half of the 2010 season at Triple-A before returning to the major leagues as a reliever late in the season. The real positive of 2010 was that Perkins regained velocity on his fastball (which averaged 92 mph) and improved the bite on his slider. This led to what was, by his standards, a successful September (11 innings, 11 strikeouts, 3.09 ERA). If there is a common thread to Perkins’ recent career, it is his inability to fool batters. They have hit .305 against him over the last three seasons and rarely strike out. Because he’s left-handed, Perkins will get his share of chances, be they from the Twins or other teams, but barring a continuation of his autumn activities, he’s just not a major-league pitcher.” This just goes to prove that even though you may be industry leaders in predicting performance it is still a very inexact science.Last spring, Perkins’ breakthrough started innocuously enough. At Fort Myers, his totals were bested slightly by the soon-to-be washed out Dusty Hughes. Hughes worked 12 innings, posting a 7/5 K/BB ratio with a .183 opponent average against while not allowing a run. Perkins, on the other hand, went 12 innings too with a good 7/3 K/BB ratio with a .238 average against. While those are both good, superficially, more people may be inclined to select Hughes rather than Perkins. And Baseball Prospectus was not alone on their assessment of Perkins. Unlike the national analysts who followed him from a far, many local bloggers who monitored his career more closely were also guilty of this egregious miscalculation of his career trajectory (present company included). His success in 2011 is a reminder to those of us who cull through the data to project players often forget about the drive that a player might have to stay at the highest level or the wherewithal to rebound from an injury. Rather than slinking into the Triple-A abyss or bouncing around from different organization to different organization, Glen Perkins went out and simply #PMKI. As Baseball Prospectus said, Perkins’ velocity in 2010 of 92 miles an hour did not stop there. It progress throughout the 2011 season, averaging 94 miles an hour and, according to Pitch F/X data, peaking, on August 10th as a 98 mile an hour bullet against David Ortiz. His arm had progressed well beyond what most experts had expected giving him a rejuvenated fastball and giving him a much better foundation to throw his secondary offerings. And it was the effects of his secondary pitch, his slider, which became the focal point of his reemergence. Baseball Prospectus observed that the “bite” had return but they had no idea of how impressive it would be combined with his now elite fastball. Fangraphs.com said his slider was evaluated as 9.9 runs above average – a mark that was eighth-best among qualified reliever. Because of the effectiveness of his slider, Perkins was able to manhandle right-handed opponents, often a difficult task for left-handed pitchers. Due to the movement and location of his slider, Perkins was able to induce a 32 percent chase rate of out of zone pitches by right-handed batters – the highest rate posted by a left-hander last season. As you can see in this example to the Brewers’ Casey McGahee, he was able to make it appear to be a knee-high fastball which would quickly fade into their ankles, leaving right-handers flailing away at nothingness. The results of his newfound (or rediscovered) stuff were nothing short of amazing. He went from a hurler who struck out hitters in the low-teens per plate appearance to one who was striking out more than 20 percent of opponents faced, putting him among the games top pitchers. What makes it more impressive is that he was able to handle both sides of the plate with ease. The future for Glen Perkins, just like it had been in the winter of 2010, is just as unclear. The Twins are hedging their bets that he sustains this breakout for the next four years. If that is the case, and he maintains his 1.7 WAR (which is “worth” approximately $7.8 million) he will undoubtedly outperform this contract extension. Then again, while the Twins have done well signing set-up men like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in long-term deals, the front office seems to have a belief that relievers are a very inconsistent breed. After re-signing closer Matt Capps, who is coming off a down year, Terry Ryan said this: "[Capps] had an off year. I'm not trying to hide anything there. We just think he had an off year and we had a little bit of that last year. Relievers are like that a lot, and it's not just Matt. It happens many times." So Ryan and his staff understand the volatile nature of the relief business. The small sample size and the over-reliance on certain arms can lead to a down year and thus the team may wind up overpaying for his services. Clearly, having watched Perkins come up through the system and understanding what he is capable of, the Twins must be more comfortable in his potential in order to dole out that kind of cheddar to a relief pitcher who has had one year on record of success. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 10-18.jpg With tickets and Homer Hankies sold out for days, Minnesota Twins fans were more than ready for the main event to start. However the World Series did not start off in the Twins’ favor. Not immediately anyway. The Cardinals clung to a one-nothing lead through the first three innings. Jim Lindeman, a former roommate of Kirby Puckett’s at Bradley University, reached on a double after his old roomie misjudged what should have been a caught popup to shallow center and later scored on an RBI groundout by Tony Pena. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Shortstop Greg Gagne, who fielded the Pena bouncer that allowed Lindeman to score, drew criticism from ABC’s analyst Tim McCarver for the play. McCarver’s analysis, as the Star Tribune’s Bob Lundgaard pointed out, was wrong -- which is surprising considering the color man’s usually spot-on takes. As it turns out, the run proved to be as harmless as a minnow bite. Although the left-handed Joe Magrane, a former Minnesota resident himself, had kept the potent Twins hitless through the first three innings, the Twins offense came alive in the fourth inning. Gary Gaetti, the American League Championship Series MVP, led off the bottom of the fourth with a single. Prior to the game, Gaetti had chatted with reporters in the clubhouse about the Twins’ chances of winning the Series. After Gaetti’s single, Don Baylor did the same. Ditto for Tom Brunansky. Kent Hrbek followed suit with a chopper up the middle and drove in the team’s first two runs of the Series. People worried about Hrbek. After all, he had gone 1-for-20 in the ALCS against Detroit. The single, even if it was just a chopper, helped reassure fans he was OK. Later, he talked about that at-bat to the Star Tribune’s Tony Moton. When Steve Lombardozzi walked, the fifth consecutive Twins hitter to reach base, Whitey Herzog emerged to tell Magrane his night was over. Magrane exited to a chorus of “Happy Trails” by Twins fans. Herzog called on veteran Bob Forsch. Catcher Tim Launder promptly started the singles parade again to score another run and reload the bases. That's when outfielder Dan Gladden came to the plate. During the regular season, the mulleted Gladden had seven plate appearances with the bases loaded. He had managed just a single in those at-bats. Earlier in the game Gladden had grounded into a fielder’s choice, eliminating Tim Laudner, who had walked in front of him, at second. With one out, Magrane decided to pay extra attention to the Twins’ outfielder, throwing over to first nine consecutive times reported one Star Tribune blurb. (Nevertheless, on the next batter, Gladden promptly stole second.) Magrane admitted after the game he focused too much on Gladden, wrote Star Tribune staff writer Jon Roe. Now, with the bases loaded and Magrane out of the game, Gladden launched a 1-2 Forsch offering over the left field plexiglass for the first grand slam in a World Series game since 1970 and put the Twins squarely ahead 7 to 1. The noise at the Dome registered 118 decibels -- the same as a jet taking off -- when the ball cleared the fence. Twins shortstop Greg Gagne said afterwards that the volume of the crowd was unbelievable at that moment. Sid Hartman later talked to then-Twins general manager Andy McPhail regarding the process of acquiring Gladden late in spring training that year. After the game Steve Lombardozzi, who would be the recipient of a Gladden punch a season later, raved about the outfielder’s contributions to reporter Dennis Brackin. The Twins’ starting pitcher Frank Viola, who had to forgo being the best man at his brother’s wedding, was unsolvable for the majority of the game. Having a 10-1 lead didn’t hurt either. Outside of the Puckett misplay that led to the Cardinals’ only run, his results were virtually flawless. Prior to being pulled after eight innings, he retired 12 of the last 14 batters he faced and did not allow a baserunner past first from the fourth inning on. If things had gone differently and the Twins were inclined to shop Viola during the lean years, he may have been in the other dugout, wrote the Star Tribune’s Steve Aschburner. The action off the field was just as intense, particularly for the wife of one Cardinal player. Booker was also three months pregnant at the time and was deemed by the hospital to be in fair condition afterward. Her husband, Rod, was actually a former Twins draft pick who had spent three seasons in the organization, reaching AAA in 1982, but was purchased by the Cardinals shortly after the 1983 season began. Booker was left off the World Series roster in 1987. A few sections away from Booker’s knockout, Chip and Wendy Lantz had donned a tuxedo and a white dress. The Anoka couple had wed just hours before the first pitch and found themselves with tickets to the biggest game of the year. It almost didn’t happen -- the game, not the wedding. The bride had a ticket, the groom did not. She told columnist Jim Klobuchar she was ready to go the game -- on her wedding night -- minus the new hubby. That is, until her two brothers gave them a surprise wedding gift. The newlyweds’ good fortune finding a pair of tickets was not the norm around the area. That morning, the Twins placed 11,200 tickets for games 6 and 7 and the seats could only be ordered by phone from Dayton’s. The rush of calls overwhelmed the phone grid, Northwestern Bell’s agents told the Star Tribune’s Mary Jane Smetanka, knocking out service as far west as Bismarck, North Dakota as well as parts of South Dakota, Iowa and Wisconsin. While the inconvenience lasted just a few hours, it was enough to irk some residents of the state. Oh. I'm sure watching Joe Magrane throw over to first nine times in a row to keep Dan Gladden close didn't help the pace. **** More Revisiting October: October 12, 1987: Twins Top Tigers October 16, 1987: Twins Mania Grips Minnesota Click here to view the article

Following a spring in which he struck out 33 and walked just five opponents, for three straight starts Francisco Liriano has failed to demonstrate much command over the strike zone. After posting a 49.2% first-pitch strike rate in 2011, the worst mark in baseball, the Twins left-handers has come out of the gate attempting to best that by throwing a first-pitch strike just 42.9% of the time. Meanwhile, as the rest of the league has peppered the strike zone with bullets 49% of the time overall, Liriano has been hitting the zone in just 41% of his pitches. This has resulted in nine walks in 11.1 innings pitch or, to look at it another way, he’s walked 14.2% of all the batters he has faced. And it is not as if he is just missing by a hair either. Watching him work, Liriano frequently misses his catcher’s target by a country mile. Last night Twins catcher Ryan Doumit would ask for a pitch slightly off Broadway only to receive a fastball that was launched into Hoboken. After the game, Liriano told reports that “Nothing is bothering me. I’m 100 percent healthy. I’m just missing my spots and pitching behind the count and you get hurt, especially with hitters like that.” In his blog last night, Lavelle Neal suggested that part of the reason he is having problems is that Liriano “lacks confidence” right now. While lack of confidence may be a byproduct of pitching poorly, Liriano is clearly struggling mechanically. Take a look at some images from Liriano’s very good 2010 season – one in which he worked ahead of hitters (62% first-pitch strike) and walked few (7.2% walk rate). Below we see Liriano in a July 16, 2010 start against the White Sox. Look at his front leg at the point of release. Notice that his weight is complete above his front leg which is driving towards the plate: Download attachment: Liriano_2010.1.7.21.10.JPG Here is another example of that from a start on June 11 of that year. Once again, his lower half is well stabilized and he is driving towards the plate at his release point: Download attachment: Liriano_2010.4.6.12.10.JPG This year, however, rather than maintaining good balance over his front leg, he has been driving his weight off of the driveline and towards the third base side of the field. The image below is from his April 12, 2012 start against the Angels. Notice now that instead of being directly over that front leg, his weight – particularly his front hip – is pulling towards his glove side at his release point: Download attachment: Liriano_2012.4.JPG Here is another example: Download attachment: Liriano_2012.JPG In his first start of the year in Baltimore, we see the same thing: when he plants, his weight is already shirting towards his glove side: Download attachment: Liriano_2012.5.4.7.12.JPG What this does is rather than generate his momentum towards home plate he is carrying off of the driveline and thus losing the ability to command his pitches. It is part of the reason why his fastball so often jumps up and away into the left-handed batter’s box. Because the center field cameras at Yankee Stadium are so off-kilter, it is nearly impossible to grab a shot that you can see where his balance point is driving towards but I would surmise that his “flying open” likely played a significant role in last night’s start as well. Also, it is hard to distinguish if Liriano was exhibiting this fall off during the spring. The one game that was capture on camera was at the Yankees’ spring training complex which also has the same off-set camera angle from center field and provides little context and depth. Either way, I would suspect (hope) that this is something the Twins and Rick Anderson are diligently trying to get him to correct and reminding him before, during and after each start. Part of this could just be that Liriano, in efforts to make perfect pitches in his free agent season, is getting too amped up and overthrowing. A pitching coach can only remind a pitcher so many times to make adjustments before the pitcher must simply relax and listen. With three poor starts under his belt and the team running low on starting options, Liriano needs to return to his 2010 form quickly. Click here to view the article

Ryan Pressly’s odds of making the bullpen when the Minnesota Twins break camp in April appear somewhere between slim and none. On a liberal guess, there are likely three spots open and two of those may already belong to Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak. The remaining vacancy? That’s competition between a Twins’ bullpen incumbent in Casey Fein, baseball’s relief innings leader last season in Josh Roenicke, and two former major leaguers trying to re-establish their careers in Rich Harden and Rafael Perez. So where does that leave a 24-year-old Rule 5 draft pick who has fewer than 30 innings of experience above Double-A? Probably with a one-way ticket back to Pawtucket with all the clam chowder he can eat waiting for him. Because of the Rule 5 draft’s rules, if Pressly is not placed on the 25-man roster, he must be offered back to Boston. However, there is another route Pressly could go to remain within the Twins’ system and that is if the team pulls a trade similar to the one that landed them Scott Diamond from the Braves. In order to do so, the Twins will need to place him through the waivers, exposing him to all the MLB teams, prior to negotiating a trade with the Red Sox. Would Pressly be worth it? There are plenty of people within the organization who firmly believe in his capabilities as a major league contributor. When the Twins selected him in early December out of the Red Sox organization, plenty of officials were already infatuated with his stuff. The Twins director of scouting Vern Followell, who followed Pressly since high school, said that he envisioned the right-hander to be a solid back-of-the-bullpen arm. Early in camp, manager Ron Gardenhire was also keen on the youngster, noting that while Pressly was a bit erratic, he was impressed by his fastball. What’s more is that Pressly was facing the meat of the big club’s order during his live BP sessions including Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, and Trevor Plouffe. Pressly works with a three pitch repertoire that is comprised of a mid-90s two-seam fastball, exquisite tilt on his curve and a good changeup. With those three pitches, the Sox had designs of making him a starter. While he did well with his secondary offerings, Pressly’s fastball often got him into trouble and he wound up with a high number of free passes issued. What is interesting about Pressly is that he make opposite handed hitters – lefties – miss more often than same-sided ones. This is not usually true as right-handed pitchers are much better at striking out right-handed batter thanks to the ability to hide the ball better and spin pitches away from their swing. Given the , one would assume he would thrive against righties but that has not been the case. Still, in 2012 – his first year in the bullpen – Pressly struck out 14% of right-handed batters faced but yielded a 25% strike out mark against lefties thanks to a strong running fastball and changeup combination. Take a look at this clip of his changeup thrown to Justin Morneau this week: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1361543132_Pressly.gif (Video courtesy of MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger) According to the StarTribune’s Phil Miller, this incited the Twins first baseman to describe the pitch as “nasty” afterwards. Pressly’s changeup has a strong bite down and away from the left-handed swing. Based on this action, one can easily conclude how he is able to achieve such a high percentage of strikeouts against the opposite hand. Competition may ultimately keep Pressly out of the hunt for the final bullpen spot but his strengths as a reliever should not go unnoticed this spring. Keep an eye on his ability to command his fastball. If he impresses enough, he may be given an opportunity to remain with the organization. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: CoryProvus (1).jpg With statistical analysis playing an ever more prominent role in major league front offices, some teams have tweaked their broadcast teams to help advance the decision-making conversation with their fan base over the airwaves. The Houston Astros hired Robert Ford and former major league knuckler Steve Sparks to push the envelope for the revamped front office, which includes plenty of brain power. The Astros are making decisions based on science rather than guts, instincts and chew spit. Yet for every progressive pair like Ford and Sparks, there’s the old school Hawk Harrelson types who denounce the stats guys at every turn. In fact, when asked if advanced stats would be something viewers would like in broadcasts during an MLB Network show, Harrelson scoffed. “It’s not ready yet,” the White Sox broadcaster said. “Down the road, 40 or 50 years, when you can put some of those categories, you get your OBPS and all that, your VORPs, when you put in TWTW [“The Will To Win”], and interface those numbers with TWTW, that category, then you might have something cooking.” Beefing up the numbers in a broadcast is a hard pill to swallow for some teams. After all, the concepts, stats and acronyms are still foreign to a significant portion of the fans. There is likely a percentage of listeners who fully believe The Will To Win trumps any number. Advanced statistics and sabermetrics are often thought of as a niche. Locally, the Twins hired Chicago-area native Cory Provus away from the Milwaukee Brewers before the 2012 season. Provus was kind enough to offer his insights about the broadcast industry and the challenges it presents in discussing and promoting some of those concepts on the radio: How do you feel about advanced stats and their role in the game today – particularly in your broadcasts? The more baseball I am around now, I think it is imperative to at least pay attention to the metrics that are in the game today. They are a prominent part of the game and they’re becoming vital to the way rosters are being assembled – and I’m not just talking about the 25-man, but I think throughout your system. At the same time you have to remember the medium, particularly the medium I work in, how often you use numbers – in the medium of radio – where you just don’t have the capability through numbers on the screen and let people digest that. For example, this is just me, but I process things visually, so if you are trying to explain to me – or anybody – if I had a question about balls in play…..I had a question for [Glen] Perkins about that in Detroit last week about the average that players and pitchers try to shoot for. Only he was explaining it to me and I was trying to process it and then I remembered the visual of it and it starts to sink in. So maybe I take that selfish approach to the broadcast and I am always conscious of the medium we work that we don’t have the ability to throw a graphic on the screen and let people visualize it and then digest it. Do you think you can convey the concepts of advanced metrics during the broadcasts? I think that you can, not so much metrics, but for example, I went on Fangraphs.com for a while this morning and I wanted to compare John Lackey in 2007 – that great year he had and won 19 games and finished like third in the Cy Young balloting that year – and looking at Fangraphs and what he was throwing, the average speeds he was throwing, to what he was throwing. Now, the sample is a lot smaller because of the injury aspect, but I was somewhat surprised that the fastball velocity is pretty constant, pretty consistent with what he did in ’07 compared to what he’s throwing now, he’s average is about 91 with his fastball which is exactly what he was throwing in ’07. However what I find interesting is the difference between ’07 and today is he is throwing more sliders now and less curveballs. And that’s I think probably because of the injury. I remember [Milwaukee Brewers’ radio broadcaster] Bob Uecker told me one time…I thought the slider was the most dangerous pitch on your shoulder on your arm on your elbow, and he always told me the curveball puts more strain, even though you throw it with less velocity, the tighter grip and the more torque you’re putting on it. So that makes sense when you look at the injuries [Lackey] is coming back and what he is throwing now and what he was throwing in the past. I found that very interesting. Do you use any other sites in preparation for your broadcasts? I look at BrooksBaseball.net just for my own knowledge. I’ll take a look at that from time to time. I am aware that there is a demographic of the audience that loves that stuff and thrives on that stuff and it is important. But also remember that I think my primary job is to tell a story. And I would rather tell stories based on person to person contact, based on what I found out that day from talking to the players and coaches. While I think stats are important, I also think stats are a crutch. I think that it goes back to the way I was brought up in baseball broadcasting where dead air isn’t the worst thing in the world. In baseball it is good to let game breathe; Let people hear the sounds, let people hear the emotions of the crowd, the vendors hawking programs and hot dogs, hearing the PA guy, hearing the crack of the bat. I would rather do that then get into stat after stat after stat. Are there any stats you prefer over others? I think on-base percentage is a stat I do rely on. I think too many times I go back and listen to my own stuff and I think, man I keep bringing up batting average. Danny [Dan Gladden] and I both think on-base percentage should trump batting average. We are of that belief that, maybe we should be better as a team to hammer that stat across more than batting average. Stats are important, they’re a vital part of the game but I think that often times, they are used as a crutch. And I would always rather tell a story than give a stat. Do you feel it to be part of your job to educate the listeners on understanding these stats and their context? Part of our job is to education as well. Educate about strategy, Educate about rules, and this day and age now, educate about metrics and the way they are applied to a current game and to the ways teams are being built. You worked with the legendary Bob Uecker in Milwaukee prior to working with the Twins. Is there anything different about the way that broadcast was approached? Was there any advanced stats discussions? Bob and I were telling stories and having fun. Trying to inform and education but keeping people entertained. That’s what we tried to do every night. I don’t think we got into sabermetrics in any way, shape or form. If it does not fit well in the broadcast, where do you see the conversation being had about statistical analysis on the air? I think it’s a good conversation during a rain delay. I think if we have time to kill during a rain delay, it’s not a bad thing to approach but I go back to how many people are really going to understand it with the medium of radio? Are we going to be throwing so many names and so many numbers across without the benefit of the visual, is everybody really going to get it? I don’t know. I would think that some people would be confused by it, because I would be confused by it. Summarize your approach to the broadcast. It’s fun. It’s a game. It’s baseball. It’s not rocket science; it’s not trying to solve the financial crisis around the world here. We’re trying to give people a break from their lives for three-and-a-half hours. Let them kind of laugh, let them learn, let them have fun, let them hear something that maybe brings them back to their childhood. That’s what I try to do each and every day. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7855954.jpg The Indians’ David Murphy should send the Minnesota Twins’ front office and coaching staff a bottle of champagne. After all, the struggling left-handed outfielder hast just six doubles this season but two of those came courtesy of the Twins when they have infielders positioned in the outfield. While the 2014 Twins infield numbers have flourished, the outfield has languished. The Twins’ outfield was a defensive liability last year. In 2013, they posted an unsightly -35.3 UZR as an outfield unit. Of course, if you solely relied on the broadcasts of the games, you would have likely heard that the Twins outfield had a .991 fielding percentage, 4th best in the game. In short, last year’s outfield was very good...if the ball was hit directly at them. But overall they converted a lowly 84.4% of all outfield flies into outs -- a rate that was 29 out of 30 MLB teams. With the knowledge that the team had issues in this department, the Twins front office did little to address that particular need in the offseason. Naturally, starting pitching took precedence. Yet little preparation was made to provide any safety net, or improvement. In fact, the only outfield addition this past year, Jason Kubel, provided questionable defense in corner outfield spots at his best. There was a method to this madness. The Twins had Josh Willingham locked in. They had to find out if Aaron Hicks could manage center field and if Oswaldo Arcia could claim right field. Beyond that, heading into camp, there was some depth (some depth in the same way there is some water in the desert). Kubel could take over for either Willingham or Arcia if necessary. Alex Presley had played a decent center field and Darin Mastroianni was certainly capable as well. But what is clear now -- as much as it seemed obvious even then -- is that there was a razor thin margin for error. Would Willingham, a much maligned player coming off knee surgery, survive an entire year? Hicks had little track record to suggest he was going to capture the position, which could be the same thing said about Arcia. At the very least, in the case with Hicks and Arcia, the Twins deserve credit for wanting to see the kids play. The problem is that they purchased a very ****ty insurance policy. When it came time to make the final roster decisions, the leadership, including the manager, decided that Jason Bartlett would be a super utility-type -- a move that was necessitated just as much by the lack of confidence in Pedro Florimon as anything -- which came at the expense of Presley, an actual outfielder, who would be claimed by the Houston Astros. In terms of that final roster spot, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony had stated that the decision was influenced by the manager. “When you get down to the tail-end of your roster, I think the manager sort of has to determine how he’s using different guys and it doesn’t make much sense to fill out a roster any other way than how he’s going to use them,” said Antony shortly after the final roster was announced in spring training. As camp wound down, Bartlett saw more time in different outfield positions. After one afternoon in right field, manager Ron Gardenhire weighed in with his thoughts on Bartlett’s performance. “He hasn’t played much out there, he’s just an athlete,” Gardenhire said in March when asked what his thoughts were on Bartlett in the outfield. “He actually ran the ball down great today -- the one ball in the corner, he just got too close to the wall. He’s had no practice in right field and balls in the corner. None whatsoever. He’s just taken balls off the bat. He got some great jumps on a few balls out there. Right field is the toughest out here. You can’t hardly see the ball out there -- everybody will tell you the same thing. I thought he did pretty damn good out there. To tell you the truth I was pleasantly surprised.” Gardenhire went on to say that Bartlett would be receiving plenty of outfield practice, alongside Chris Colabello and Eduardo Escobar, once the season began. The notion, however, that Bartlett would be needed almost immediately in the outfield did not seem to cross his mind. Additionally, the front office said that Bartlett would be available in emergency situations to fill in for Hicks but that Mastroianni would be a phone call away in Rochester. The emergency situations arose in Cleveland just six games into the season when left fielder Josh Willingham was destroyed by a Justin Masterson fastball. With Jason Kubel in right field and Oswaldo Arcia out because of an injury, Bartlett was pressed into left field duty. In the sixth inning, the Indians began to pick on Barlett. First it was Lonnie Chisenhall getting a bonus base because of Bartlett’s play, then Jason Kipnis landing a single in short left field and finally, David Murphy’s first gift double: http://i.imgur.com/7Ahbebc.gif In both instances, the likelihood of actually making the play was remote. According to Inside Edge’s fielding data available at Fangraphs, the IE video scouts suggested that the initial double allowed to Chisenhall had a 40-60% chance of being converted into an out. Murphy’s bloop, on the other hand, received a near 0% chance of being caught. The issue came in Bartlett’s approach -- the attempted dive rather than play it safe and get behind the play and limit Murphy to a one-base hit rather than move into scoring position. His hustle was admirable but his inexperience was on display. Source: FanGraphs This outing resulted in Bartlett’s eventual retirement after he sprained his ankle and opted not to continue through the rehab process. When the Twins returned to Cleveland, they were once again left with a short bench thanks to a pair of concussions to Aaron Hicks and Sam Fuld. With depth being a significant issue, Gardenhire decided to use Escobar in left field. Despite the vote of confidence from his manager after the game, it became apparent during the game that his inexperience -- like not knowing exactly how to read a warning track -- came into play. In that case, Inside Edge’s video scouts said Asdrubal Cabrera’s double was a play that should have been made 90-100% of the time. It essentially cost the Twins that game. Source: FanGraphs The next afternoon, still short of outfielders, Gardenhire promoted Escobar to center field action. This is where David Murphy received his second double from the Twins: http://i.imgur.com/FIZHJXw.gif Undoubtedly a tough read. Line drives that are smoked straight at an outfielder have the tendency to be difficult to read. As of this posting, Inside Edge’s data from that game has not been uploaded to Fangraphs.com so there’s not baseline as to what professional video scouts feel about that particular play. That said, a player like Hicks or Fuld who has a history of seeing those types of plays would be able to get a better jump and route than Escobar did. Through Monday night, the Twins have had infielders in the outfield for 45.2 innings (or 4.6% of the total innings). Of those innings, the players involved have a combined 64 innings of professional outfield experience between them (Danny Santana did have 15 games in center in 2011 with Beloit). While a small sampling, that still is too large. Clearly health-related issues have forced several of these decisions but those were born from the inability to properly build -- or in the case of losing Presley and Mastroianni, manage -- outfield depth in the system. It was the offseason gamble, not the final decision to keep Bartlett on the 25-man roster, that caused so many issues that are resonating today. You are welcome, David Murphy. Click here to view the article

In just 134 innings in 2011, we witnessed how good Scott Baker can be as a starter. Of course, we also witnessed what has become the inevitable season-ending injury for the second-straight year. After having a procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in 2010, Baker experienced discomfort in the pitching side elbow once again in 2011 and was sidelined, making just four appearances post-August. The hope coming into camp was that Baker would be fully healed for what is a pivotal year for the right-hander: This is the final year of his contract and at the end of the season, the Twins will have to decided whether or not to exercise a sizable $9.25 million option for 2013. Unfortunately, similar to last spring, concerns are once again flaring up for Baker as Joe Christensen reports, he was having an "inability to get loose" in Saturday's B-game start against the Pirates. Christensen also writes: While most pitchers have a bell-curve when it comes to velocity, starting lower in the spring before culminating in the warmer summer months, this is a significant drop-off and, combined with the worries of getting loose, raising larger flags for the team. As I wrote last year when this issue came to the forefront, many times bone chips and spurs are larger indications of elbow problems - the chips and spurs are often caused by loose UCLs, the Tommy John ligament, and a sign that something is not structurally sound in the elbow in general. The worst case scenario is that Baker will require some sort of procedure and miss a substantial portion of the season. The best case is that rest and slowing down his progress keeps his elbow healthy for the season's duration. Then again, the likelier scenario is that he has a similar season to the previous one where he manages to through 100-130 innings only to be shut down later on. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Sano.jpg On Monday night, Fox Sport North broadcasted the New Britain Rock Cats game, giving Twins fans in the Midwest another glimpse of one of the game’s top-ranked prospects in Miguel Sano. Sano, who went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts lowering his average to .238, made a nifty play on a slow chopper to nail the runner at first to end a threat early in the game. Much has been made about bringing the 20-year-old Sano up to Minnesota this September but the Twins have been steadfast in their development process and not wanting to rush anyone before their time. On Tuesday, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire was on MLB Network Radio radio recently and discussed what his roster could look like come September – and it likely does not include Sano. “I’m guessing that probably not,” Gardenhire said when asked if Sano would see action in September. “I would think that [Terry Ryan] has not totally said no to Sano but I think he’s leaning really heavily not doing that move and letting him go home. He’s played a lot of baseball this summer and having him fresh in spring training and see where that takes us.” Gardenhire continued to say that nothing was out of the question but Ryan will be spending the next four or five days in Rochester trying to make the final decision on which players will be on the roster come September. The manager also addressed another question regarding the status of veteran first baseman Justin Morneau, who had cleared waivers last week and is free to be traded to any team. “I’m sure Terry and them have had phone calls and listen,” Gardenhire said, “but everything I’ve heard is that there is money involved and all that and other teams are not wanting to touch money and stuff like that.” Morneau, 32, is owed approximately $3.5 million for the remainder of the season and other teams are not necessarily interested in obtaining that contract in exchange for a player hitting .261/.316/.418 in 503 plate appearances this year. “We would do it for Mornie if the opportunity came,” said Gardenhire. “I’m sure Terry would look at it and think about it really seriously, but we’re also trying to help our ballclub. We’re looking for some kind of prospect or something like that that can help our ballclub next year.” The Twins have not given their fans much reason to watch the club at the season’s conclusion. Dating back to 2011 the Twins have won just 44 of 132 games after July 31 - so any form of excitement to the late season roster would be welcomed. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg The Minnesota Twins’ offseason has been interesting to say the least. With the team trading away not one but two of their major league ready center fielders, the writing on the wall at 1 Twins Way appears to read that the focus is on the future. Outwardly, the Twins are sending the message that they are doing what they can to build a competitive team in 2013 but also taking measures to fortify the club for the coming years. Behind closed doors however, the tone may be different as the reality is that the organization recognizes the window for success begins at least one year down the road. And this may be the reason why Justin Morneau could be traded yet this offseason. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] During the winter meetings, the Twins were reported to have been “gauging interest” from other teams on what they would give for Morneau. Obviously nothing materialized at the time and, furthermore, the Twins may have simply been testing the waters rather than outright shopping their first baseman. That said, as the team made abundantly clear after last season, no one is untradeable. The conditions were not favorable at the time of baseball’s annual agent orgy, at least not for the first base market. Had someone like the Orioles offered up a top flight arm, Morneau may already be eating Maryland crab cakes. Instead, teams were still addressing other needs. Targeting vital up-the-middle position players. Trying to land top-of-the-rotation arms. The game’s top free agents had yet to sign. The dominoes were still mostly intact. That changed yesterday when Angels signed outfielder Josh Hamilton out from under the Texas Rangers’ nose. Not only did the Rangers lose a talented player to their division rival, they also became fairly exposed from the left-side of the plate. Because of that, it may not be long before the Rangers call on Morneau and ask: “How much?” Aside from losing Hamilton’s production from the left side, they also have lost their designated hitter in Young. Potentially desperate to address those needs, Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels may be inquiring on Morneau soon. With the Angels launching themselves into the catbird seat of the AL West and the surprising and youthful Oakland A’s extremely competitive as well, Daniels will surely need to counteract what his rivals have done this winter. From the Rangers’ perspective, targeting Morneau makes plenty of sense. In spite of witnessing a decline in his home run totals in recent years, a new venue could help rejuvenate the Canadian slugger. The Ballpark at Arlington is one of the most favorable environments for left-handed hitters to play. According to StatCorner.com’s Park Factors, Texas’s stadium has a home run factor of 117 (anything over 100 favors hitters). By comparison, Target Field’s confines thwart that type of power production to the tune of 78. In theory, Morneau’s numbers would be enhanced significantly with the Rangers. Additionally, with one year left on his contract, it would be a relatively risk-free (minus the concussion, of course) deal for Texas. Under most circumstances, the idea of asking a team to absorb $14M for a 31-year-old with injury issues may be a tall task, however, Texas is one of a few teams who seem able to assume the risk. The Rangers, who have lost Hamilton’s previous contract ($15.25M), Mike Napoli’s ($9.4M) and a portion of Michael Young’s ($5.5M of his total $16M owed), have payroll space to add Morneau’s contract if they so choose. As it stands, they have roughly $50M committed to players (pre-arbitration contracts, of course) after reached $120M in 2012. After all, in addition to whatever revenue they generate for being one of the best attended teams in the American League (2 of 14), they also have approximately $80 million a year coming in from their TV deal with Fox Sports Southwest. On the other hand, by most measures, the Rangers are a smart team. Daniels has been one of the most impressive general managers in the game – building his organization from the ground up, emphasizing scouting, bringing in elite international talent and targeting quality free agents. After making several moves to acquire players like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster in recent years, he has also lost some notable prospect talent so it is hard to envision the Rangers sacrificing much in any deal. Likewise, the overall market for Morneau was lukewarm at best at the deadline last year. Even losing a star player to a division opponent may not be enough to inspire Daniels to surrender the young pitching the Twins are hoping for. Would Morneau make the Twins better in 2013? Yes. Would trading him upset the fan base? Of course. Is he untouchable? Obviously not. The Twins sent the message at the winter meeting that Morneau could be had for a price, not it appears that the Rangers maybe in a position where they might have to pay that. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: images.jpg For the past four years, we have produced an Offseason Handbook to put fans in the driver’s seat of the Twins franchise. Within it, we highlight all of the winter’s impending free agents, potential trade targets and review the organization’s strengths and weaknesses from top to bottom. This culminates with the presentation of our blueprints to improving the team. In my blueprint, I laid out a fairly elementary explanation as to why the Twins failed so miserably in 2012 and, no, it was not a six-word piece that read “JOE MAUER SHOULD HEET MOR DINGERS.”[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While the starting pitching takes precedence and priority, the secondary issue was that scoring runs was also a weak spot for the 2012 squad. Consider this: Only three other American League teams finished with a lower runs per game average than the Minnesota Twins (Seattle, Cleveland and Kansas City). After focusing on repairing the rotation, I outlined several realistic moves that should help elevate the number of runs scored for next season but the move I would like to discuss here is this: Sign Kevin Youkilis. Yes, there is a huge hurdle to clear when it comes to Youkilis and that is his impending option for $12 million which the White Sox hold the rights to. Collectively, because of that hefty payday and his lackluster performance in 2012, we decided that Chicago will opt to pass and allow him to become a free agent. At which point, we estimate that the market will put him in the two-year, $14 million range (or perhaps even a one year, make-good type of contract). Across the board, Youk’s 2012 production was at the lowest levels of his career. His power was down, his average was down and his on-base percentage was down. Even the mighty Greek God of Walks’ walks were down. It could be based on an age-related decline or something mechanical lurking in that funky swing of his, however, if you are basing just purely on his batted ball rates, there is indication that 2013 may see a change for the better. For the most part, Youkilis’s batting ball rates were consistent with his career. His line drive rate was high but he had been hitting a higher percentage of ground balls the past two seasons and those did not find nearly as many holes in the infield as they once did (hence the significant decline in average and OBP). This resulted in a 54 point difference in his batting average on balls in play versus his career norm. Even if he maintains the higher ground ball rate and equals his near 20% line drive rate, he should experience some correction in those numbers. For a guy who sprays the field in all directions regularly, Youkilis also has some pretty significant pull power. From 2008 to 2011, his .899 slugging percentage when yanking the ball was the fourth best in baseball, ahead of even Josh Willingham. Additionally, Youk’s numbers against left-handed pitching in that time was also among the best in the game. His 1.044 OPS in those years facing wrong-handers was the third-highest behind just Albert Pujols and David Wright. Admittedly, a lot of that power is derived from feasting on the close proximity of the Green Monster but even still, Youkilis had success on the road as well. Obviously there are shortcomings when it comes to signing Youkilis. For starters, it denigrates the defense. Heading into his mid-30s, his glove work is not what it used to be. Likewise, as you will find in the blueprint, the subsequent move after signing Youk would be that Trevor Plouffe would be relocated to second base. Once again this downgrades the infield defense (and potentially increases the amount of souvenir balls thrown into the first base stands) but should increase the production in the lineup by putting a power-hitting second baseman in the order. If he indeed bounces back, Youk’s addition would give the Twins the capabilities of moving Mauer up to the two-spot and insert a high quality right-handed bat with impressive on-base skills to, ultimately, score more runs. If you purchase the Offseason Handbook (which you can download a free preview by clicking the link), you will read more about that specific move as well as other recommendations to improve the team. Not only do we provide our blueprints but we supply you with teems of information on the free agent, potential trade targets and the organization from top-to-bottom to allow you to create your own blueprint for success. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg On May 13, not long after sending down incumbent third baseman Danny Valencia to AAA, the Twins GM Terry Ryan called out the option-less Plouffe to step up his game: “I’d like to think we’re going to give Plouffe an opportunity here to step up and see what we’ve got. Eventually, we’re going to have to find out.” Heading into the May 16 contest in Detroit, he was staring down a .133/.288/.217 batting line in 73 plate appearances. The lack of production had incited plenty of conversation regarding whether or not he deserved to be on the roster at this juncture at all. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Perhaps it was recognizing he was down to his proverbial last strike with the organization or that with Danny Valencia and Chris Parmelee sent to Rochester he would receive regular playing time or because he finally cut his damn hippy hair which was hindering his abilities to hit. Whatever the reason, Plouffe suddenly emerged as a serious power threat. From May 16 onward, Plouffe has hit six home runs, two doubles and has driven in nine runs in 13 games. Part of what has lead to the power outburst is that he is turning on pitches far better post-May 16 than he had been doing previously. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, Plouffe’s pre-May 16 fly balls were traveling an average of 272 feet. Post-May 16, he was driving the ball much further on average, hitting them 295 feet. While the numerals might not do the significance justice, the visual spray charts found at TexasLeaguers.com shows what the discrepancy of over a 20-foot average looks like: Download attachment: Plouffe_Apr-May15.jpg Download attachment: Plouffe_May16.jpg You can see the difference in that not only is Plouffe losing a few more balls over the fence, he is also driving the ball better to the left-center field gap. Prior to this stretch the majority of the time Plouffe turned on a pitch, he would do so and give the defense the opportunity to make a play on the ball. The increase in home runs – as welcomed as they are – still does not cover up the fact that the rest of his overall numbers leaves much to be desired. After all, Plouffe has a sub-.300 on-base percentage even during his recent hot streak. What’s interesting about his numbers is that during the early portion of the season (pre-May 16), Plouffe had walked 13 times in 73 plate appearances in spite of hitting .133. Since then, he has drawn just one walk in 51 plate appearances. Even with the precipitous decline, his walk rate remains above average and the highest of his career to date. Given that he has a 10 percent walk rate one would expect a beefier OBP but that is not the case. What is actually driving the fact that he is hitting below Aaron Gleeman’s weight (which is the modern day Mendoza line) and getting on base less than a 30 percent clip is that his batting average on balls in play – or BABIP - is atrociously bad. In fact, among those with a minimum of 100 plate appearances this year, Plouffe’s .192 BABIP is the fourth-lowest in baseball. Somewhere between 2010 and 2011, the Twins got Plouffe to make several adjustments to his set-up and swing. The new model led to more lift and elevation of pitches which begat a noticeable increase in his power numbers. The problem with fly balls is that if they don’t leave the park, they have a difficult time becoming hits. What’s more is that his fly ball rate has grown significant from last year (now at 47%, up from 40% in 2011) at the expense of his line drive rate. Although this is a good precursor for a home run, hitting a high percentage of fly balls that don’t land on the other side of the fence often are converted to outs. In Plouffe’s case, an even higher than normal amount of flies are being turned into outs, so there is an element of “bad luck” involved. The average fly ball hit has found vacant real estate roughly 13% of the time (by far the lowest among the three types of batted balls) but the flies off of Plouffe’s bat have landed safely just 5% of the time. Likewise, Plouffe’s grounders (39% of his batted balls) have found seams in the defense just 15% of the time, well below the MLB average of 24%. As the season progresses, Plouffe’s figures are likely going to move towards the mean as more fly balls and grounders find free space. Of course, ultimately, unless he raises his line drive rate above the paltry 14.3 percent (only eight other players have lower line drive rates this year), his numbers will not climb all that quickly. Turning on pitches with more authority and greater distance has led to some much needed offense, positive signs for the Twins’ super-utility player. His added plate discipline has given him another dimension as well and may be an indication of progress at the plate. At the same time, we have witnessed Plouffe on a power binge last season that eventually fizzled out later in the year so it is entirely possible that this outburst subsides too. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: deduno.jpg It is probably an indictment of the Minnesota Twins’ rotation when the biggest conversation of the month of March is focused on the performance of a pitcher who is currently not on the team’s 40 man roster. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As Mike Pelfrey, Vance Worley and Kevin Correia continue to turn in clunkers in the Grapefruit League, Samuel Deduno’s sometimes sloppy, sometimes dominating but always energetic outings in the World Baseball Classic -- including last night’s five inning, two hit, three walk and five strikeout victory – has captured many fans’ attentions back in the Upper Midwest. Despite not maintaining the same free and easy motion as he showed during his start against Spain earlier in the tournament, Deduno forged his way past the United States (even while walking in a run and facing several 3-0 counts) and then kept Puerto Rico at bay to help the Dominican Republic capture the World Baseball Classic title. What helped the right-hander up to and in the championship game was having a filthy curveball. This is nothing new for Sammy. Last year, Pitch F/X-ly speaking, he held one of the best curves in baseball – allowing an average of just .160 on the hook, 14th lowest among those who threw it 200 or more times. He was also one of the most frequent users of the curveball, by percentage. Throughout the World Baseball Classic he showed great confidence in this pitch. In his start against Team USA, Deduno had the misfortunate of not only loading the bases, but walking USA’s Eric Hosmer to give the home team an early first inning lead. With the bases still loaded, Deduno went to a full count on Adam Jones and sent him packing with a 3-2 curve for a called strike. Ballsy pitch. In another instance, he would go on to throw a 3-2 bender to his potential battery mate, Joe Mauer, only to get the catcher to roll over to the first baseman. You know how often Mauer had seen a 3-2 curve in 2012? Six times. Last night, of the 14 batters Deduno retired, nine of those came on his curve. When facing Puerto Rico’s Angel Pegan and a runner on second, Deduno spun a 3-2 curveball to get Pegan to turnover and knock into the second out of the inning. Two innings later, Deduno fell behind Jesus Feliciano and ultimately lost him on a curve out of the zone, he proved that he was not going to lay a fastball in there (if, you know, he’s capable of that). As I’ve repeated numerous times, Deduno has got electric stuff which has helped him defy statistical convention for success at the major league level. If opponents are unable to square up pitches and are constantly off-balance with curveballs in fastball counts, it is hard to drive home those hitters he walked. It’s a tightrope act but, so far, Deduno has pulled it off. Click here to view the article

Nick Blackburn’s greatest redeeming quality is his ability to consume innings. Unfortunately, for the past two consecutive seasons, he has not come close to proving his worth in this department. When he was not sidelined by injuries, Blackburn pitched on either side of the spectrum for the Twins. One month - like May 2011 where he went 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 42 innings pitched - he would be dazzling, using his sinker effectively and keeping opponents off-balanced. The next month – like July in which he went 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in 29 innings – he’d have fallen apart and was beaten senseless across the field. Naturally, injuries played a significant role in his bi-polar performances and helps explain his decline to some degree. But Blackburn has come into camp healthier following his second-straight offseason with an elbow procedure and, according to the Pioneer Press’sTom Powers, he has made a series of adjustments that they hope will improve his numbers against right-handed hitters: Shifting on the rubber is not an uncommon practice among pitchers. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast found that some premier pitchers such as Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander all made in-season adjustments by shifting their starting point. In their cases, all three hurlers moved to the first base side of the rubber. By shifting to the middle, Blackburn is hoping to add a bit of deception to his repertoire to combat right-handed foes. And the changes are completely necessary for Blackie. Over the past two seasons, right-handers have feasted on his offerings. In 2010, they hit a robust .318/.352/.485 in 345 plate appearances. Those totals increased this past season when they hit .316/.362/.507 in 318 plate appearances. This is starkly different from his results pre-2010 when he last threw his slider successfully. While hiding the ball longer may improve his marks, having a secondary pitch such as his slider would likely go further towards curbing righties. Keep in mind that spring training is a time where promises are often made and the regular season is where they are not kept. Last year, Jose Mijares received glowing reviews about his new two-seamer. That did not exactly pan out for the big lefty. As the spring progresses, be sure to monitor how Blackburn fares against same-sided opponents. Click here to view the article

La Valle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg This is now the third edition of the year-end mishmash that is the Twins at a statistical glace: It was the Year of the Strikeout for pitchers in baseball and more than any team the Twins hitters were their greatest victims. The offense saw strike three 1,430 times – a new franchise record. That 1,430 finish represents the third-highest team total since 1961. Only the 2013 Houston Astros (1,535) and the 2010 Diamondbacks (1,529) have finished with more strikeouts than the 2013 Twins. When the Twins did get runners on base, they managed to bring that runner in [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]just 12% of the time – tying them for the worst baserunner scored percentage (shared with Seattle, Miami and Chicago Cubs). The obvious reason for the lack of production was the lineup’s inability to gather hits with runners in scoring position. The Twins .225 batting average with runners in scoring position was the lowest in the American League and the second-lowest in baseball. They also led the league in strikeouts with runners in scoring position (407). For the first time in his career, Joe Mauer was Average Joe when it came to his strikeout rate. After many years of finishing well below the norm, Mauer finished 2013 (albeit prematurely) with a strikeout once every five at-bats (MLB average 5.0). Joe Mauer had the third-highest line drive rate at 27.7%. Trevor Plouffe wasn’t far behind at 24.7%. One difference between the two is while Mauer finished with a .717 batting average on his liners, well above the league average of .657, while Plouffe held a .667 batting average on his liners. A bigger difference was that Mauer hit .238 on his fly balls in play while Plouffe hit just .066. The Twins did not run much on the bases this year, attempting just 85 stolen bases. It was for the best that they didn’t try for more as their 61% stolen base success rate (52 for 85) represented the second-lowest total in the game. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks (60%) were worse at base thievery. Both were well below the league average of 73%. Pedro Florimon finished the year with 15 swipes to lead the team. That was the lowest team-leading total since Kirby Puckett took 14 bases to lead the 1984 club in steals. Oswaldo Arcia led all American League rookies with 14 home runs. With a .339 second-half slugging percentage, Trevor Plouffe finished in the bottom-25 in slugging among qualified hitters in the second-half. Brian Dozier hit 18 home runs on the year, giving him the Twins’ second base home run title after he surpassed notable sluggers like Rod Carew (14, 1975) and Tim Tuefel (14, 1984). Splitsville, man. Dozier also was a manimal against left-handed pitching. His weighted On-Base Average against lefties was .421, the eighth-highest in the game. Of course, Dozier’s .288 wOBA against righties was the 11th lowest in the game. Aaron Hicks’ rookie season was one of the poorest performances by a center fielder in Twins history. Ranking by weighted On-Base Average, Hicks’ .266 wOBA was just slightly better than former Twin Ted Uhlaender’s .256 wOBA season in 1966. Oh, and Hicks’ eventual replacement, Clete Thomas, fared no better as he was the team’s third-worst offensive performer in center with a .270 wOBA. The Twins were very good at avoiding hitting into double plays. In 1,149 double play opportunities, they banged into the two-for-one just 103 times. That 9 percent rate was the lowest in baseball. The Twins outfield was tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for most outfield assists (44). Aaron Hicks led the team with nine while Clete Thomas and Chris Parmelee had six each. While the fielding percentage was one of the game’s best at .991, Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus statistic says the outfield unit at minus 53 runs was the worst group in baseball. If you ascribe to the theory that 10 runs equals one win, the outfield could have cost the team a little over five wins. The Twins shored up the shortstop position defensively as they finished second among all teams in the Plus/Minus statistic at plus 19. Pedro Florimon was third in baseball at plus 12 just behind Pittsburgh’s Clint Barmes (plus 13) and Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons (plus 37!!!). After his abysmal 2012 campaign at third, Trevor Plouffe actually completed the year in the black according to Plus/Minus: plus 1. In an era of unbridled strikeout totals, the Twins pitching staff broke the mold. The league’s 36,710 strikeouts were the most in baseball history. Yet the Twins eschewed that and rang up just 985 – the only staff in the league to not crack 1,000 strikeouts. That strikeout mark was 24% below the league average. Isolating just the starting rotation, the Twins front five were exceptionally bad at being able to miss bats. Their 477 strikeouts were the fourth lowest total in the past 10 years. Only the Royals (470 in ’05 and 463 in ’06) and the Tigers (422 in ’03) completed their seasons with fewer K’s. There’s a running joke on Twitter that involving Glen Perkins and Bruce Springsteen’s description of a fastball as a “speedball” (see: #speedball). Unlike the Boss’s description, the Twins do not have many pitchers who can “throw that speedball by you” but Perkins, however, has been one example of a Twins guy who does have a speedball that he can throw by you. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value metric, Perkins’ fastball has been worth 16.7 runs above average on the year – the second-highest among all relievers. (Perkins also holds the third-highest average fastball velocity among all qualified left-handed relievers. At 94.9, Perk will need to add some MPHs to catch up to the Reds’ hard-throwing southpaw Aroldis Chapman, who pumps heat at 98.3.) Just a few spots below Perkins in the fastball pitch value is bullpen buddy Anthony Swarzak. This Sasquatch loving right-hander’s heater is 12.4 runs above the average (9th highest). Perhaps nobody noticed because of the team’s overall record, but Swarzak’s second-half was outstanding (37.2 innings, 1.91 ERA, 5 extra base hits and a decent 28-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio) compared to his first-half output (58.1 innings, 3.55 ERA, 16 extra base hits and a 41-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio). Swarzak’s 96 innings pitched was the most in baseball among relievers. It was the most innings thrown by a reliever since Scott Proctor threw 102.1 with the Yankees in 2006. That was also the most among Twins relievers since Juan Berenguer’s 100.1 innings in 1990. ** Thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for the numbers. Click here to view the article

The Twins have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers flame-thrower Joel Zumaya. According to Joe Christensen, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth $800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on innings pitched, pending a physical. Zumaya, the talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in front of teams. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007 through 2010. Based on this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would be able to pass a physical in order to be signed. Because the concern, it is easy to see why he would be available for under a million. Download attachment: Zumaya_Velocity.jpg As you can glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to 2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true detriment. After bursting onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly destroyed his elbow in 2006 by playing Guitar Hero too much (a video game that is no longer available either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time when he dislocated his finger while warming up in the bullpen and threw just 33.2 innings that season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his Southern California homes during one of the wildfires) and missed a substantial portion of the 2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of 2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain kept him from being able to lift his arm above his head. Finally, in 2010 most Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (a fractured olecranon) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture. Given the laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with rubber band and duct tape. Clearly, there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings, striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008 and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1 innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012. If things work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as Phil Mackey tweeted, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball (one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass a physical let alone finish an entire season. This is certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: target-field-28.jpg When asked how he feels that the outsider perception of the Twins’ use of statistical analysis is behind the rest of the game, Jack Goin, the team’s Manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, simply replied “That’s fine.” Goin cites the St. Louis Cardinals as an example of how he wants his operations to be viewed. Whereas teams like Tampa, Cleveland, Boston and New York have been well-known and forthright about their endeavors into the statistical world, the Cardinals have been extremely stealth yet very much active in research. If it were up to him, he would just as rather have people continuing to overlook the team while they continue to improve. Over the last decade, the Minnesota Twins have developed a reputation of being an organization run on scouting or traditional ways. Just three years ago, the team’s assistant general manager, Rob Antony, acknowledged that the organization – born of harden scouts like Terry Ryan and Mike Radcliff – had been more focused on the traditional way of thinking. Stats, analysis and research were ignored. Goin would be given the difficult task of providing analysis to decision-makers who have, by and large, been resistant to the analysis. The truth is, Goin says, they view themselves as a middle-of-the-road team when it comes to using statistical analysis. There are the overachievers, there are a few on the bottom and the rest, like the Twins, reside somewhere in between. One way in which they have progressed in just a few shorts years is that Goin has turned to MLBAM’s Pitch F/X system – a relative unknown to the staff as recently has 2010 – when attempting to analyze potential free agent pitchers. “We’ll use it to decipher,” Goin said. “You get the scouting grades, let’s say, so you get the scouting grade and [the scout] puts a 5 on the curveball. So we go in and look at it and if the guy has been in the big leagues, now we can see maybe the curve is a little better than a 5 or maybe it is a little worse than a 5 or maybe it is right on based on rankings among other pitchers.” Goin and a dedicated full-time intern have used Pitch F/X to evaluate specific pitchers, a need that has no doubt grown exponentially with the Twins’ overwhelming need for serviceable arms. This offseason alone the team has added three pitchers to the rotation, all of which were likely examined in some capacity with Pitch F/X data. “We used it just a few weeks ago on a free agent pitcher we were looking at. We were talking about his sinker and trying to figure out what’s going on with it. He had been injured the last few years and we were trying to figure out where that sinker is in terms of when it was really good and where it is now. So we looked at it and tried to figure out how much vertical break was on it and how much horizontal break was on it and tried to distinguish some of the contact rates.” For those versed in Pitch F/X understand what the levels of break translate to can relate to what Goin is attempting to accomplish in his research. This is standard analysis that can be found regularly on sites like Fangraphs.com, BaseballProspectus.com and even on TwinsDaily.com. While this may seem like a rudimentary use of the information, making groundbreaking conclusions based on the data is not necessarily the object of even the front-running organizations. In 2009 interview, Tampa Bay Rays Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said that the challenge for teams using Pitch F/X is not finding new knowledge but rather using the system and data correctly to supplement existing evaluation tools. Trying to explain the intricacies of the data to life-long ball guys and what it means can be overwhelming, so Goin keeps it simple. Rather than inundate the organization’s decision-makers with vertical break figures or horizontal movement rates from the system, he simply uses it to levy an opinion as a scout would – perhaps with a greater advantage. Where a scout is able to pick up on mechanics, positioning other elements that cannot be captured with data alone, Pitch F/X can help provide a greater picture of how a pitcher’s “stuff” is working or not working over the course of a season. “Scouts gets [a pitcher] for one day. A major league [scout] gets them for four starts – or twenty-to-thirty innings. Who knows what happened in those four starts? Guys will tell you that they have 10 really good starts, 10 really bad ones and the rest fall in between. We try to verify or bring up questions to think about.” Because of the ability to capture and track with accuracy a limitless amount of pitches, Goin has expressed interest in affixing Pitch F/X cameras through the team’s affiliates to better capture their prospects’ developments. Of course, the cost of installation and an annual fee for having the system may prohibit this from becoming a reality. Going beyond Pitch F/X, Goin uses statistics and data to help uncover players found at the margins of the game – the Clete Thomases and Darin Mastroiannis of the world – whom the Twins can pick up through waivers. Additionally, he and his intern are integral in the process of identifying candidates in other organizations that could eventually get included in a trade. “We try to find not a hidden guy but a lesser known guy – someone not on all the prospect lists, maybe not on the scout’s radar for whatever reason it might be,” says Goin. “You try to find another guy we might at least talk about because when you are trying to make a trade, it’s not the easiest thing in the world to do. You get turned down a bunch before someone says ‘yes.’ You have to come up with multiple names.” Since his promotion to the newly-created position in 2011, Goin believes the team has made progress improving the research department – including implementing some medical tests provided to players in hopes of creating a baseline and understanding injuries better. If there has been one area of the game in which a team can quickly create a competitive advantage, it is being able to prevent or limit injuries. Still, the description of the working of Twins’ research department sounds quaint in comparison to some of the other organization’s efforts where extensive studies are conducted and a significant investment is made by the team in personnel and a support staff. In Houston, Luhnow created an entire department titled “Decision Sciences” run by Sig Mejdal, who, like Luhnow, was hired away from the Cardinals. They also added leading Pitch F/X analyst Mike Fast, who spends a portion of his day creating models and databases for the major league and farm system. Whereas teams like Tampa Bay, whose inner workings were well-documented in Jonah Keri’s book The Extra 2%, and Houston have aggressively beefed up their research departments the past few years, the Twins’ find themselves somewhere in the middle with the majority of teams in the game’s research-oriented revolution. Other teams too are embracing this philosophy and expanding their research departments – like the Kansas City Royals who appeared to be one of the non-stats teams just a few short years ago as well. This is a fact that does not seem to be missed on Goin and the lack of manpower is the biggest barrier for the Twins to do those types of analysis. “That’s definitely where the game is going. Sometimes it is a budgetary thing, sometimes it is getting the people who make the decisions to believe this is what we need to do.” Click here to view the article

For three straight years now, the Minnesota Twins have been forced into tapping one of their position players to take the mound late in a blowout game. In 2011, it was Michael Cuddyer. Last season, the honors went to Drew Butera. This year's position player was veteran infielder Jamey Carroll. Had Aaron Hicks remained on the roster, he might have been the obvious position player to be called in for mop-up duty considering he was a talented high school pitcher throwing in the mid-90s and multiple teams viewed him as a pitcher at the time of the draft. Nevertheless, Carroll retired his opponents with guile and not heat. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Carroll's nine-pitch eighth inning was not a thing of beauty, but it worked. He retired three consecutive Royals hitters and did not use anything resembling a fastball. MLB.com's PitchF/X system charted all his offerings as either a changeup or a knuckleball -- both reasonable assumptions for pitches thrown under 80 miles an hour. The St Paul Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino tweeted after the game that Carroll had not pitched at any level since his Babe Ruth League days as a fifteen-year-old. I’m guessing the velocity has not changed much since then. How does Carroll's outing compare to Cuddyer and Butera's? Download attachment: Playerpitchers.PNG You have to wonder if Carroll’s grotesque fingers gave him an unfair advantage to be able toput additional movement on each pitch that a normal, healthy-handed pitcher would not. Sort of like Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown. Download attachment: CarrollKnuckles.jpg Click here to view the article

What was interesting about Justin Morneau’s second home run of the game yesterday (and the walk-off winner which John Bonnes detailed here) is that it happened to be just his third home run he has hit which was thrown over 90 miles per hour this year. On his second homer of the year back on April 18, he turned on a 91.7 mile an hour Hiroki Kuroda fastball. On July 6, he redirected a 96-mile an hour Tanner Scheppers fastball into the Rangers Ballpark stands. Yesterday’s walk off that came on Vinnie Pestano’s 91 mile an hour fastball marked just the third time this year that he’s managed to put a 90+ fastball into the seats. In 2009, when Morneau was a sure-fire MVP candidate before missing the last month of the year, 14 of his 30 home runs came on fastballs over 90 miles an hour. In 2008, eight of his 23 came on fastballs over 90 miles an hour. Now, just three of his 19 home runs have touched that velocity. The tendency may be to associate this with his concussion, however, during the 2010 season Morneau hit just two of his 18 home runs on 90+ fastballs as well. Perhaps it is a byproduct of aging, or the injured wrist, shoulder or other ailment. Consider his hitting zone against the fastball in the first half compared to the second half of the year: Download attachment: MorneauvFastball.JPG With the green-to-red colors representing the greater production, Morneau’s second-half performance (depicted on the right) shows that he has much better zone coverage against fastballs. Take note of the dramatic difference between his first-half production (left) when being thrown inside in comparison to the second-half (right), in which he was handling the inside fastball far better. Independent of what leaves the park, Morneau’s performance against fastballs overall has improved as the season has gone on. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gibson.jpg Robot umpires now? You wouldn’t blame Kyle Gibson for wanting them. A recent Wall Street Journal article took an in-depth look at Major League Baseball’s strike zone and found that some teams have benefited from an expanded zone while others suffered from shrinkage. Brian Costa consulted with the locally-owned Inside Edge, a Minneapolis-based company[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] that specializes in harvesting video data for teams to use, and IE’s evaluating system combined with the MLB Pitchf/x system showed that an average of nearly 9% of all pitches were called incorrectly. While the definition of the strike zone is quite clear, the human element influences the outcome of the calls during the game. Writes Costa: Among all the teams, Inside Edge’s data shows that the Twins have been the most wrongly discriminated against when it came to pitches inside the zone that were called balls this season. Just 44.3% of botched pitch calls that were missed were deemed favorable to the Twins. Has this negatively impacted the Twins 2013 season? As Costa’s points out, the Milwaukee Brewers, who at 55.3% have the highest amount of wrongly called pitches go in their favor, have nearly as bad of a record as the Twins. So it appears that even if the Twins had all the calls go their way, it still would not have changed the overall record much. What is interesting is that the Twins pitchers have an overall decent amount of strike zone presence. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitchf/x data, the Twins pitching staff has the second-highest amount of zone presence at 50.7%. Meanwhile, Inside Edge’s data suggests that Kyle Gibson has been one unlucky fellow – getting just 79.2% of in-zone pitches called a strike. Before you pick up your pitchforks remember Gibson’s in-zone percentage is one of the lowest in the game at 41.9%. Gibson’s chaotic nature combined with his rookie status may have made it difficult for umpires to side with him on his borderline pitches. However, there may have been another factor that influenced his poor strike percentage. While we all have seen the stories and data on Ryan Doumit’s framing issues, but Gibson was spared from having Doumit as his batterymate. Instead, Gibson has drawn Mauer for eight of his 10 starts. While Mauer has been proven to be an excellent receiver when it came to coaxing a call on the high strike, his ability to do the same with a pitch down in the zone was extremely poor. (As suggested in the WSJ piece, it may be due to his large stature which blocks out some umpires.) As a sinkerball pitcher, Gibson works down in the zone with that and a biting slider. With Mauer’s tendency of turning a low strike into a ball, it is no surprise to see a high amount of Gibson’s low pitches being called balls. Download attachment: Gibson_Zone.png Gibson, a ground ball pitcher by trade, had his problems further exacerbated, beyond the strike zone, by the percent of grounders turned into hits – his .333 batting average of grounders was nearly 40% higher than the league average. Armed with a solid repertoire, Gibson figures to play a substantial role in the rotation for the Twins in 2014. Click here to view the article

The front office will likely do some shopping-n-swapping to infill the rotation this winter however one member of the Twins staff who is almost certain to get an opportunity to win a role next spring is Samuel Deduno. For the most part, Deduno’s unexpected and head-scratching success has continued across his 13 starts. He has struggled to get ahead of hitters (54% first pitch strike rate compared to the 60% league average) and then falls deeper behind in the count (8% of all his plate appearances went to 3-0 counts) and ultimately loses the battle of the balls. As such, his 15% walk rate is the highest in baseball among all starters with a minimum of 70 innings pitched. Because of this, the expected Fielding Independent Pitching metric -- which takes batted ball trajectory, strikeouts and, most pertinent to Deduno, walks -- calculates him to have an earned run average closer to 4.60 rather than the 3.84 that he is currently sporting. If you were applying the standard statistical analysis to this situation, it would be easy to label the right-hander as a case ripe for regression. After all, Deduno has allowed 48 hitters on base via walk but somehow has managed to keep a high percentage of those from scoring. He has stranded nearly 80% of all base-runners which is well above the league norm of 72%. At some point, a ball chops through the infield here or a subsequent hitter manages to get one up into the jet stream to plate some runs there. Yet again, Deduno has been extremely fortunate in that respect as well. Consider this for luck: Line drives become hits approximately 73% of the time. It makes sense when you think about the trajectory and speed that causes frozen ropes to be quite hard to defend. Yet line drives from Deduno’s opponents have turned into hits just 60% of the time. Somewhere down the line, that number is surely going to regress to the mean and drive his overall batting average on balls in play – which is at a miniscule .258 right now – back closer to the league average. While regression in 2013 would be the anticipated response based upon the above two paragraphs, if you consider how little opponents have been able to actually square up on his repertoire, there could be a correlation as to why the majority of his balls put into play have been fielded. The biggest factor is his ground ball rate. At 58%, his worm-killing rate is the seventh highest among those with a minimum o f 70 innings. The next significant indicator of his ability to avoid heavy contact is his 18% infield fly ball rate. What that means is that nearly 20% of all the fly balls hit are not getting past the infield dirt. As of Thursday, only former Twin Johan Santana (19%) has been able to keep a higher percentage of flies from leaving the infield. What this statistic is indicative of is their ability to get hitters to lunge and make off-balanced contact with pitches. When first introduced to the Twins, the initial reaction was that Deduno came equipped with a fairly legit curveball. In 2007, Baseball America graded his curve a 70 on the scout’s 20-to-80 scale. In 2010 Deduno was pitching in the Rockies organization. Coming off one spring training outing as a 26-year-old manager Jim Tracy simply said “Those were paralyzing-type curveballs.” Major league hitters would likely agree with those assessments of the pitch as they have hit just .153 off of it and he has racked up 39 of his 54 strikeouts with the curve. As impressive as his curve ball has been, Deduno possesses a ridiculously underappreciated weapon in his fastball. According to Baseball Prospectus’s Pitch F/X leaderboard, Deduno’s four-seam fastball has induced the highest amount of ground balls on that pitch since the inception of Pitch F/X in 2007. Sure, it is only 403 pitches but his 68% ground ball rate on a four-seam fastball is downright unbelievable. The reason he is getting such an incredible amount of grounders is because of the sink action he has on his “crazy fastball.” Deduno’s movement on his four-seam fastball almost defies physics as four-seamers – which because of the backspin created more often tend to give the illusion of “rising” - generally have the least amount of sink among all pitches. On average, Pitch F/X says that the majority of four-seam fastballs have a vertical movement of roughly 8.60 in measured in 2009. As a rule of thumb, the higher that number, the greater the “rise” action or conversely, the lower that number, the greater the sink. To provide some perspective, the Angels’ Jared Weaver, whose fastball has been described as having “hop”, has a vertical movement of 12.23 on his fastball. On the other end of the spectrum, the Indians’ Justin Masterson, who has one of the “heavier” fastballs, has a vertical movement of 4.24. That use to be the most sink on a four-seam fastball. That is, it was until July 7 when Samuel Deduno started pitching. Deduno’s four-seam fastball has a vertical movement of 2.76. For those who are not properly geeked up by those numbers, here’s another visual: The average split-finger fastball has a vertical movement of 3.37 which means Deduno’s four-seam fastball has more vertical sink than an average split-finger fastball. Take a look at the pitch’s action in all its .gif glory: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Deduno_Fastball.gif This particular one not only sinks, but has arm side run for days as both Seattle’s Trayvon Robinson and Ryan Doumit were fooled by the late movement. Later, Doumit was at a loss in attempting to explain the movement and where it comes from. “I don’t know if it’s finger pressure or wrist angle or what it is, but he’s got a gift of natural movement on the fastball and the changeup,” said the Twins catcher. Deduno’s movement is exciting and provides explanation as to why he is out-performing his Fielding Independent Pitching figures. Hitters simply cannot square up on anything they swing at. However, if they put on a swing boycott, his inconsistent control may lead to too many free passes – beyond the point where he can continue to strand them all. This was evident in his most recent start against the White Sox where he walked five and three of those came around to score. Deduno will take the mound tonight to take on the Tigers. Watch for some of that crazy fastball movement and if he can locate it in the strike zone. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pavano.jpg Word spread on Tuesday that Carl Pavano had been re-diagnosed with a bruise on his humerus bone. Pavano, who had made two appearances with the Fort Myers Miracle in hopes of rehabbing what was assumed to be a strained shoulder, told reporters that he’s frustrated that it took several months to get the diagnosis correct but is happy that it does not require surgery to heal. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal writes that the Twins medical staff should be exonerated in the case of Pavano’s missed diagnosis. The staff teamed with specialist Dr. David Altchek, who agreed with the original diagnosis of the strained shoulder capsule, conferred with the team’s doctors thorough his rehab and saw every MRI the Twins performed on Pavano. Said Twins Assistant GM Rob Antony: Considering it will take rest and that September is fast approaching, the likelihood Pavano is seen again in a Twins uniform in 2012 is almost non-existent. [/hr]Speaking of injured pitchers, Pedro Henandez, one of two players acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, left Tuesday night’s game one batter into the third inning. Through his four starts in the Twins organization, Hernandez has thrown 17.1 innings and posted an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with opponents hitting .342 off of him. [/hr]The Twins will be summoning pitcher Liam Hendriks from Rochester for the third time this season. Hendriks’ performance between the two levels could not be any more night and day. In his 8 games with the Twins this year, he’s 0-5 with a 7.04 ERA in 38.1 innings. In Rochester, he’s made 16 starts and is 9-3 with an International League-leading 2.20 ERA in 106.1 innings pitched. So what’s the biggest difference? It’s a variety of things, Hendriks explains in his interview with MinorLeagueBall.com’s John Sickels. One glaring statistical difference is that Hendriks has not allowed the ball to leave the park in AAA in comparison to his big league stints. While in Rochester, just 3% of fly balls have become home runs whereas 12% of flies with Minnesota have resulted in dingers. [/hr]Twins second basemen are hitting .213/.270/.272 (542 OPS) collectively this year -- well below the baseball standard for the position of .254/.317/.380 (697 OPS) -- yet Ron Gardenhire is not willing to give Darin Mastroianni a trial at the keystone. Gardy told the PiPress’s John Shipley: [/hr]Twins reliever Alex Burnett is the only qualified reliever in baseball to have more walks (23) than strikeouts (22) yet, somehow, he manages to have a respectable stat line including a 3.11 ERA – thanks in part to a 74.5% left-on-base rate and a .249 batting average on balls in play. Interestingly, just five of Burnett’s 62 fly balls allowed have become hits (.082 batting average vs .228 AL fly ball average) helping suppress that batting average on balls in play. [/hr]Twins PR man, Dustin Morse, tweeted out that Ben Revere is just one stolen base shy of stealing 30 bags in consecutive seasons. If-slash-when Revere nabs his 30th of the year he will join Cesar Tovar, Rod Carew and Chuck Knoblauch as the only Twins to have accomplished that feat. [/hr]Following an 0-for-3 night at the plate – in which one plate appearance included banging into a triple play – Trevor Plouffe is now 2-for-29 (.068). [/hr]Even though he took the loss, Cole Devries left Tuesday’s game relatively unscathed considering his 2.24 home runs per nine innings was the highest rate among those with a minimum of 60 innings pitched this year. Of course, working in the O.co Coliseum whose three-year park factor for home runs is 80 (very pitcher-friendly), it takes some hard work to give up bombs in Oakland at night. Click here to view the article

Earlier this week, the Philadelphia Phillies signed former Twin Delmon Young to an interesting one-year deal. The Phillies set parameters within the deal that stated Young needed to maintain a certain weight in order to have incentives kick in. Download attachment: Hrbek.jpg As baseball observers may have noticed, over the years, Young’s weight would ebb and flow. For instance, when the Twins acquired him from the Rays, he had slimmed down to a healthy 215 thanks to a hard regiment in 2008. That number however would balloon to 239 by September 2009. To his credit, at age 24, he dropped over thirty pounds and came into camp at 207 in 2010. That year, in which he hit .298/.333/.493 with 21 home runs, was by far his best season of his career to date. That would not last as Young would add more weight the following offseason. In an interview with TwinkieTown.com prior to the 2011 season, assistant GM Rob Antony said this about his significant weight loss: Young showed up to camp in 2011 not only heavier but supposedly more muscular. Of course, he would also witness a sizeable drop in all of his stats as well that year. That’s when the Twins had enough of his poor defense and his inconsistent offensive output and traded him to Detroit for next to nothing. This past year, Young was said to have been playing at 225. On Tuesday, the Phillies’ physical showed him at 238. Young’s explanation for the fluctuation in weigh since last year was, as he says, due to “some ice cream and good luck cakes” found in the clubhouse. Perhaps the Phillies have analyzed his performance in conjunction with his weight and realize that he produces much better when he’s between a certain figure. For Philadelphia, they are saying he needs to weigh less than 230 three time and fewer than 235 pounds the final three times for him to obtain optimal production – which would then led to an additional $600,000 for him. If he could offensively replicate what he did in 2010 be worth a little over half a million? Think about it. A team with a savvy numbers-crunching staff may discover the next Moneyball breakthrough based on the scale. Young’s story is reminiscent of another former Twin – one whose shapely form now greets fans outside of Target Field. Unlike Young, Kent Hrbek’s tale originates from an era when offseason workout schedules and owner investments’ in players were not nearly as obnoxious as they are now. There was no Twitter to provide a snarky remarks about weight. And, as opposed to modern times, you could be sure there was not an internal statistical analysis department running studies on production based on optimal weight. (Not that this is done now, either.) Today, almost all players on the field seemingly have bodies like P90X background actors. Outside of Prince Fielder and Pablo Sandoval, there are no Pucketts, Gwynns, Kruks and Hrbeks with such impressive love handles. Even though there were more players in that era carrying a few extra pounds, Hrbek’s weight was no less of a topic of conversation among reporters. In 1984, at the young age of 24, Hrbek’s physique was compared to a local Floridian celebrity. No, not Miami Vice’s Don Johnson. Rather, it was Shamu, the nearby Sea World’s famous killer whale. Hrbek, who had entered his major league playing days at a trim 200 pounds, had gained nearly forty pounds in two years. Heading into his fourth season with the team, jokes were flying around the spring camp in Orlando. One report said that during the designated weigh-in, Hrbek stepped on the team scale and it spat out a card saying: Come back when you are alone. While that was a fabricated clubhouse talltale to give the hometown hero a good-natured ribbing behind closed doors, one player took the message public. Tinker Field, home to the Twins’ spring training until they moved to Ft Myers, was, like most low-level minor league stadiums, rung with advertising on the outfield walls. One section pimped out the nearby Sea World. Adorn with the famous killer whale, somebody taped the number “14” on the chest. (This, Hrbek later revealed in his book “Tales From The Minnesota Twins Dugout”, was the work of Mark Portugal. Pretty ballsy stuff from a guy who was a 21-year-old AA pitcher at the time.) Of course, this would not be the last his el-bees would come into question. While he weighed a reported 236 in 1984 – a year in which he finished runner-up for the AL MVP - that figured climbed to 245 in 1985. By spring camp of 1986, it would be near 250 and be the focal point of the media as the team reported to Orlando. The weight drew plenty of attention from the media but then-manager Ray Miller did not seem the least bit concerned. “Everyone has heard his weight and jumped to the conclusion that he’s gotten fat,” Miller told reporters. “But it’s not true. We had people working with him lifting weights three times a week during the offseason and he looks better than he’s ever looked. He told me for the first time he can go to the beach and take his shirt off without being embarrassed.” Miller had sent him and some teammates to work out over the winter at the University of Minnesota – which was a far more rigorous from his previously rumored offseason workouts which involved bowling once a week, one teammate joked. Hrbek’s habits were infamous. He would drink, smoke and eat in the clubhouse. Sometimes all at once. In 1988, media members enter the clubhouse post-game to find a shirtless Hrbek housing a cigarette, holding a beer in one hand and an ice cream sandwich in the other. The first baseman would dip the treat into the beer and then take a bite. He told reporters that “it softens up the ice cream. Maybe there’s some money in it. You know, like when the chocolate hits the peanut butter.” Roughly around the same time in ’88, when Twins fans showed up at the hotel they were staying at, Hrbek sat at the bar and drank beers with them. In 1991, Marty York of the Toronto Globe and Mail described Hrbek as “an obnoxious creature with a penchant for annoying those around him. Hrbek’s repertoire of chicanery has been known to include such actions as blowing cigarette smoke in the general direction of a teammate’s face.” Drinking and smoking are not patterns of a player hoping to play at an elite level for an extended period of time like, say, how a guy like Jim Thome embraced yoga to maintain flexibility at age 41. In addition to eschewing regular workouts and stretches, dieting on fatty foods, beers and Camel Lights would likely shorten any career. For Hrbek, longevity never was the goal. He went into his age-32 season in 1992 looking to silence the whispers that his ability to play at a high level. That 1992 new Hrbek campaign did not get off to a great start when he busted his shoulder in spring training, re-injuring the same shoulder he had separated diving for a ball in 1989. Observers wondered whether Hrbek may have avoided the injury -- one that occurred while trying to stretch a double into a triple -- if he were in better condition. In what would be his final season, everything started to breakdown for Hrbek. In June, a Kansas City reporter wrote up a piece which asked the question what Hrbek might be like if he focused on staying in shape: Hrbek went on to point to fellow National League chubster, John Kruk, who was leading baseball in average, as an example. “The guy’s hitting over .370,” Hrbek said. “That’s one for the fat boys.” Both Kruk and Hrbek would be out of the game before their age-35 seasons – a rather remarkable thought considering the need in the game for power-hitting left-handed designated hitters. Hrbek, however, did it on his own terms, citing his need to step away from the game and be with his family and the outdoors. "He lives in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and he wants to fish in all 10,000 of them," teammate Kirby Puckett said. "I can't blame him." In August 1994, with baseball's work stoppage looming, Hrbek decided it was time to retire. "I feel I can still hit," Hrbek told reporters at his retirement announcement. "The problem is getting there after I hit it. Hitting the ball off the wall and not being able to make it to second base, I don't like that." In the end, Hrbek was, essentially, a precursor to Park & Recreation’s Ron Swanson. He ate what he wanted, he drank, he smoked, and he avoided all that physical labor and just did not care. He enjoyed himself. That did not mean he did not take pride in his work. He was truly a naturally gifted player who took his talents as far as they could. He could hit the tar out of the ball. The problem was that it was a truncated career. Had he done more cardio, mixed in a salad, started doing yoga, maybe he could have played four more years. Maybe. With a little more attention to his physical health, it's possible that his mid-1990s could have been more fruitful. Maybe we would be discussing his Hall of Fame potential right now. Who knows? That, however, is not a part of the Hrbek ethos. He did not need the awards or the accolades. He was satisfied with two very important team awards -- a pair of World Series rings he happily flashed at his retirement press conference. He did not care about seeking more money in free agency because he wanted to play at home. He enjoyed himself, even if that meant indulging his vices in exchange for a higher salary or a longer career. Click here to view the article