Parker Hageman

Here's what I'll say: I disagree with Fangraph's assessment of Lewis' swing (and maybe Law's take but he didn't elaborate other than mentioning the leg kick). FG says he's "often late" on fastballs yet he's pulling the vast majority of pitches seen. The hand movement comment is vastly overblown. I take umbrage toward national prospect guys making specific statements about someone's swing when there is a high probability that they didn't study his swing that closely (there's thousands of players to cover). What's more, this note from the FG write-up is just silly fluff: "Seem to". Yikes. The real issue is that, as a young prospect, he struggled for the first time in his career for a full season. It's a lot of movement, to be sure, but you don't coach the athlete out of the hitter. That was the old regime's problem and one reason why Byron Buxton struggled to find himself in the system. Lewis's leg kick isn't a problem and the organization doesn't see it as such (multiple Twins coaches told me that). There are timing issues, to be sure, but the Twins are allowing him the space to tighten things up on his own rather than going down the road of mandating changes like they did with Buxton. He might shorten the stride and stay in the back leg longer or make other changes along the way. While Lewis didn't make any mechanical changes for the Arizona Fall League, one thing he did was reach out to coaches in the org to help develop a better plan to prepare for games. He really didn't have one previously. I think we saw production based on just being better prepared for the competition.

Here's the thing that you have to account for in Willians Astudillo: He has played non-stop baseball games basically since 2014. His cycle goes spring training --> regular season ---> winter ball --> spring training without a real off-season recovery break like a lot of the regulars have had. As a 26-27 year old, he played 108 games between ROC/MIN, another 23 in Venezuela (where he caught less), another 17 games in March and another 16 games in April for the Twins. He hit in all those stretches. He demolished winter ball, hit well in the Grapefruit and then started the season hot. I honestly believe that when May came along he was burnt out and the strained oblique muscle may have been no surprise (given his propensity to play, I'm sure he hid it for a while too). I'm confident he's better than the stat line he produced in May that dragged his overall 2019 numbers down but not as good as his April numbers were. It's nice to see him taking a winter off (his first since he was 22 years old).

Yet framing is a much more valuable skill to a team's success than blocking/throwing right now. The best framing catcher in 2019, Austin Hedges, was worth over 2 wins to a really bad Padres team. Comparatively, the best blocker and the best thrower gave their teams just under one win for blocking and under a half a win for throwing. And, really, it's not FRAMING. Framing is just the term that is being used. It's receiving the ball in the way that keeps you from losing strikes on the edges of the zone (and gaining a few as well). Watch Hedges work the low pitch, which he does exquisitely. He gets underneath it and works back into the zone in one motion. Until MLB goes away from a human calling balls/strikes, teams like the Twins are going to target/train catchers to gain that advantage. I will say that, in terms of Avila's other skills, again, it's interesting to see how it's ranked among the different defensive metrics. BP says his Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) was 2.1 (32nd among catchers), which is partly because their metrics hate his framing skills. ESPN/TruMedia's FRAA says he was 3.6 (5th highest among catchers) because they really liked his framing skills. Fangraphs FRAA equivalent says he's middle of the road (13th) because he had really good numbers for controlling the run game. I completely understand how looking at all of this can make someone's head spin. Overall, Avila has demonstrated to have a much better blocking skill than either Castro or Garver last year and he did a much better job at controlling the run game as well. So there's hope he can provide above average results in all three categories in 2020.

you will hear it for at least one more year, potentially more.

If you or someone you know is a robot umpire, you might not want to read this. The automated strike zone may be on the horizon but the Minnesota Twins are still very interested in stealing strikes from human umpires -- and the newly signed Alex Avila figures to play a key role in the larceny. Sure, Avila is also going to hit, run, throw and do other things but the Twins have invested heavily in infrastructure to maximize their catchers' framing abilities. Like it or not, Alex Avila is going to participate in the ruse. But how good are his receiving skills?Depending on which statistical warehouse you consult, Avila’s skills in 2019 floated somewhere between good and average. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s Framing Runs Above Average metric, Avila was 6.3 runs above average, equating to about half a win to the team’s ledger. This was two runs better than either Mitch Garver or Jason Castro’s season. Likewise, Baseball Savant suggests that Avila was better than the Twins’ duo at stealing strikes in the shadow area just outside of the rule book strike zone. However, Baseball Prospectus’ framing metric, a proprietary data point engineered to include all considerations (including which hitter, umpire, and pitcher) in their calculations, says that Avila’s 2019 was slightly worse than Garver and Castro. StatCorner’s framing rankings echoes the same as BP. Meanwhile Fangraphs had Castro as the trio’s top framer, with Avila following closely and Garver far behind. Clear as mud, right? What we can say for sure is that Avila’s defense is trending in the right direction (after all, almost all of those statistical framing models said he was a downright atrocious backstop before landing in Arizona) so presumably he can only get better from here. And better is something the Twins have been capable of providing. This past season we learned that under the right guidance catchers can transform from below average to above average receivers, as Mitch Garver showed going from frying pans to soft hands. The catcher whisperer who provided that guidance, Tanner Swanson, is no longer with the organization but the Twins have confidence they still have multiple catching coaches who can implement the same teachings. Alex Aliva has softened his stance a bit on the framing discussion. For instance, heading into his first spring training with Arizona prior to the 2018 season Avila said he doesn’t like the word “framing” and when asked about the data he replied, “To be honest with you, I can't care less what the numbers say.” Thankfully for the Twins, Avila’s experience in the Diamondbacks’ organization may have helped convert him into a believer in the gospel of framing. He still might hate the word but he has embraced the concepts. Unlike the teams Avila previously played with, including the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, the Diamondbacks decided to put a premium on framing metrics. After spending time tweaking his style with Dbacks catching coach Robby Hammock, Avila, who had a very traditional mindset to the position, even started dropping to a one-knee set-up when no one was on base beginning in 2018. With the success of that addition, Avila could be receptive to undergoing the Twins’ graduate program. Under Swanson’s tutelage, the Twins’ catching instructors found that most catchers who at least tried the new technique will tell you that they actually like it over the traditional method. So much so that they used it in all situations -- runners or not. “I think if you ask our guys, most, if not all, would tell you this is how they would prefer to do it,” Swanson said last spring about the one-leg set-up. “We’re also learning that we can still block and throw effectively from these positions too and, although it’s different and hasn’t necessarily been explored in the past, that’s not scaring us from seeing what we can learn.” The Twins are no strangers when it comes to the value of receiving. This past weekend, Josh Kalk, the organization’s director of pitching, was extolling the virtues of stealing strikes during his presentation at a coaches conference in Texas. A good receiving catcher is worth about 0.3 runs per game, Kalk told the audience. It is clear that the Twins place a high value on the receiving game and Avila’s signing is an indication they believe he can produce in that regard. Where Avila thrived in 2019 was flipping counts in his pitchers’ favor. This past spring Twins’ catching prospect Ben Rortvedt explained that flipping counts was a critical emphasis for the org’s backstops. “Flip counts and flip innings,” he said, a motto amongst the system’s minor leaguers that referred to getting the even counts to swing to favorable counts. Simply, the more you are in pitcher’s counts, the more outs you can typically get: the difference in results between a 1-2 count and a 2-1 count was .565 OPS points. In 2019, Avila had the 11th-best strike looking above average rate in even counts. In layman’s terms, he was fairly strong at keeping strikes, strikes, and making others off the plate look good too. By comparison, Garver was 20th and Castro was 35th in those situations. While Avila succeeded in even counts, his weakness was gaining strikes in the vital two-strike situations. His performance with two strikes fell to 50th, while both Garver and Castro finished in the top 20, helping the Twins have one of the league’s better receiver corps in punch-out counts. The value of which skill is better -- getting to two-strikes or closing the deal -- is debatable but the correct answer is both. And that’s the direction the Twins would like their backstops to trend. If you can add Garver’s two-strike receiving strength to Avila’s repertoire, he becomes that much more valuable of a defender. Even if Alex Avila comes to the Twins and tells them he’s not interested in any of this newfangled receiving styles, he is still capable of being a strong complement to Mitch Garver as a defensive platoon nevertheless. Starting with Avila’s weakness -- breaking balls -- we see that he and Garver are near polar opposites. Download attachment: Avila-Garver BB.png Garver’s new receiving technique, working under the pitch and moving back into the zone while catching it, has paid dividends on breaking balls. On pitches that are moving down and to the side Garver has captured these much better than in the past. This has enhanced the bottom of the zone. On the other hand, Avila, who starts on top of the pitch and works down, loses more breaking balls at the bottom of the zone. But you will also notice that Avila is better than average at getting/keeping elevated breaking balls as strikes. One reason for this is that Avila, in a one-leg set-up, will let a high breaking ball travel rather than trying to get it near a spot, giving the optics of a breaking ball that may have dropped in the zone. Elevated breaking balls are typically mistakes yet they happen so infrequently that it catches hitters by surprise. They rarely swing at a curveball that starts over the zone only to clip the upper reaches of the strike zone. Last year, hitters swung at just 18 percent of curveballs that landed in the upper third of the zone while swinging at 44 percent of curves in the lower third. It may help save a few oops pitches but this chart might also be Exhibit A to show Avila where he needs to improve his game. At the same time, with his current technique, Avila proved to be able to handle fastballs better than Garver and gained strikes all around the zone, particularly with elevated fastballs. Download attachment: Avila-Garver FB.png Pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, who live in the upper third of the zone, may find throwing to Avila beneficial under those circumstances. Similarly, free agent target Hyun-Jin Ryu also utilizes that air space regularly. It is conceivable that the Twins could sell Ryu on the ability to throw to Avila who can strengthen his approach. Another potentially positive element about Avila’s fastball receiving would be for Jose Berrios, who locates a two-seam fastball on his arm-side corner of the plate -- a zone that is red for Avila but bluer than blue for Garver. Last season Castro aided in getting Berrios a 10% called strike rate on fastballs off the plate in that area whereas Garver held a 4% rate. Avila’s handling of that pitch may give Berrios an advantage. What makes Avila good at receiving that pitch is his set-up. Unlike Garver, who typically aligns himself at the edge of the zone, Avila will situate off the plate and angle back over, almost creating a new lane for pitchers to exploit. Download attachment: Avila.PNG As mentioned, Avila could benefit Jose Berrios’ two-seam and changeup movement which fades in that direction and, since we’re in the middle of the hot stove season, another free agent pitcher that could be helped by gaining strikes in that area: Madison Bumgarner. That’s right where Bumgarner locates his fastball and cutters. Regardless if Avila embraces the Twins’ catching methodologies or remains with his current receiving set-up, he has the ability to add marginal gains to the team’s bottom line and, at the very least, replace some of Jason Castro’s defensive output. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

FYI

Just to echo what John said, it's that the coaches themselves want flexibility as they try to climb the ladder. For the Twins, as long as they can maintain a cohesive culture through the turnover, this is a good thing. Aspiring coaches will want to join this organization when they see they can use it as a pivotal point in their career path. I think it should be highlighted that all of the coaches who have left this offseason have done so for higher positions. It's not that they just wanted out for more money or a better work environment. Most coaches and instructors I've talked to this season have raved about the culture. At some point, there's just no more room to elevate someone and other opportunities open up.

This time they are coming for Jeremy Hefner. According to Marc Carig of The Athletic, the New York Mets are set to interview the Twins' bullpen coach. Hefner has had a meteoric rise in the pitching ranks, first as a middle man between the organization's analytics team and the players and then into a uniformed role in the bullpen in 2019. Hefner's presence has been cited as one of the reasons several Twins' pitchers saw improvements during the season.While a lot of the attention this spring was on the hiring of Wes Johnson, numerous pitchers and coaches lauded Hefner's contributions, deeming the pair a two-headed monster of pitching development. "When you look up and see Jeremy Hefner next to [Johnson] and they speak the same languages but also with different experiences, I think it’s a great combination," Rocco Baldelli told reporters this spring regarding the handling of the pitchers. Eno Sarris recently posted a list of potential pitching coaches and Hefner's name was one of the top candidates. Hefner has an excellent ability to break down mechanics on video and explain deficiencies to players so that they understand and can quickly make adjustments, one pitcher told me earlier this year. With the increase in technology and video, it is almost vital to have a pitching coach that can bridge the gap. The Twins' major league coaching staff has already lost James Rowson and had the possibility of losing bench coach Derek Shelton as well. They have also lost catching coordinator Tanner Swanson to the Yankees and hitting coordinator Peter Fatse to the Red Sox. Click here to view the article

Interesting developments here... The Yankees steal away Tanner Swanson. Then they juke and grab Matt Blake from the Indians instead of a college pitching coach. This is actually a more dangerous development. Blake's work with the Indians was instrumental in churning out a number of amazing pitchers out of their system. There's definitely a similarity on how these guys load their hips and move. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1161385647556440064 If you look around Twitter, some of the best industry minds are raving about this hire. Hard not to like it if you are a Yankees fan.

One point that was raised during the Arizona Fall League trial run was that the system took 4 seconds to call ball/strike which, as Rob Arthur pointed out, is an additional 10 minutes of game time. We just finished a World Series that had multiple four hour contests (which Sam Miller at ESPN did a good job detailing of where that time went) and an additional ten minutes, while seemingly in the name of accuracy, is still a lot to tack on to the game right now while MLB is doing it's best to shave time off. It's possible it would potentially be a wash when you couple it with the pitch clock but it seems that the tech still needs some improvements.

Good question. By all accounts, Rudy Hernandez did a great job as the assistant hitting coach. I don't know much about his philosophy but if it aligned with that of James Rowson, it might be best to have some continuity. You could backfill the assistant hitting coach role with a younger, up-and-coming coach like the Red Sox did when they hired away Pete Fatse from the Twins. The advancements on the tech hitting side in general lags behind the pitching one. There's obvious tools that can been used for measuring hitting -- Blast Motion sensors, Rapsodo for hitting, 4D Motion vests -- but the pitching side rapidly grew in the college ranks. You can see that pitch design has immediate value (i.e. change a release through measuring via Rapsodo and Edgertronic and you could have a totally different pitcher). There isn't a swing design equivalent. You see college coaches that are versed in the hitting tech usually hired at the lower ranks where these can be used more readily (you can't have Blast Motion sensors for game swings at the major league level). The thing that impressed me the most about Rowson was his humility. There are a lot of burgeoning coaches who put a lot of content and self-promotion on Twitter or Instagram. Rowson, while he's on Twitter, doesn't have any followers, follows only a handful of accounts and hasn't tweeted. It is significantly different than say, John Mallee, who was the hitting coach for the Cubs and Phillies and was fired from both roles. You could have the circular argument that today's players are very much Twitter immersed and that's where you need to be to reach them, but I can't help but noticed the analytically-bent Mallee has reportedly lost the room with two different teams and Rowson has been coveted by other organizations. Going back to the college ranks, there are several well-thought of offensive programs -- like Dan Heefner at DBU -- but I'm not certain there is an immediate bridge to cross for a college coach to jump to the big league ranks. While it seemed unorthodox at the time, hiring a pitching coach from the college game seemingly made more sense. For the next hitting coach, the real factor will be which coach has the best communication strength and that could potentially come from outside of professional baseball.

When the Twins hired Wes Johnson last November, it was a rare move in which a Major League Baseball team tapped a college coach to join the big league staff. Outside of the industry, the hiring was a curiosity considering the lack of experience in handling professional pitchers but those following closely knew that Johnson was viewed as one of the sharpest teachers anywhere in the game. We're far from anointing the decision as an all-out success but everything is trending in the right direction. The Yankees, who parted ways with pitching coach Larry Rothschild last week, are now trying to follow the Twins down the collegiate path.According to D1 Baseball's Kendall Rogers, the Yankees have made "college pitching coaches a high priority" for the position. Rogers says that the Yankees have interviewed Michigan's Chris Fetter and Johnson's replacement at Arkansas, Matt Hobbes. The Yankees also inquired about Arizona's Nate Yeskie (a Driveline favorite) and TCU's Kirk Saarloos but both coaches turned them down. This past spring, I asked Johnson what he thought were the key differences between the college game and professional ball and what made that appealing for teams. "I think the college game, we have the resources, we have a smaller number of players, so we are able to go in and do a lot of research with biomechanics and Trackman and write those individual plans," Johnson said. "As you’re seeing that’s just where the game is going and so these guys have the experience doing it, so it makes it easier. You look, basketball, in the NBA and the NFL, that’s not uncommon but for some reason it is uncommon in baseball. In the NFL you have great head coaches who never played a day of college football or anything of that nature, and they are phenomenal. Same way in basketball." That's a huge factor for major league teams. College ball is where the forefront of development lies and the technology aspect was embraced heavily. Major league teams were late to utilize and some teams recognized that they didn't have the coaching infrastructure to incorporate the changes. Pitching coaches like Rothchild, while unbelievably knowledgeable about the craft, lacked the experience working with the advancements. "I think that college baseball has been slightly ahead of professional baseball in some regard," said the Twins' minor league catching instructor Tanner Swanson. "I think from an educational standpoint there’s just more people in that space who understand how this stuff works and we’re seeing how it is utilized now and implement it in a professional environment." As this continues to unfold and more college coaches are picked from the amateur ranks, keep in mind that this was Derek Falvey vision all along when he assumed the position of Chief Baseball Officer with the Minnesota Twins. “When I came here, one of the things I thought about over my career in baseball was where are the people learning and growing and developing as coaches," Falvey told me. "I found when I was in different positions I would go to different conventions, college conventions or off-sites or these events, and I met these different people from college and thought wow, these people really have curious minds, they are high character individuals, they care about baseball deeply." You may be surprised by the amount of money college pitching coaches at large universities make. Before leaving Arkansas, Johnson was making $250,000 a year and the Twins reportedly offered him a deal that is "well north" of $350,000 per year. The Yankees obviously have the biggest pocketbook so they could throw money at whoever they feel is the top coach but, for many teams, they typically pay between $150,000 to $300,000 for a pitching coach. Not everyone is as bold as the Twins when it comes to handing out money to unproven coaches. So you can see why some coaches, like Nate Yeskie who is earning “elite SEC school range” income, might turn down the opportunity. After all, most SEC head coaches make over a million a year and pitching coaches have a payday of half of that. Beyond just income, the time dedicated to the job is significantly different and could favor a switch to the professional ranks. While pro baseball coaches have higher scrutiny (although you could argue SEC coaches are constantly under the microscope), college coaching requires a year-round commitment and does not have the luxury of regrouping during the offseason. The Twins hired their Gulf Coast League pitching coach, Zach Bove, out of the College of Central Florida (you can read more about him in my article in the Offseason Handbook). Bove noted that the main difference between pro and college ball for coaches is the extra downtime pro coaches receive. “In college you have practices and games and then you are going out on the weekends to recruit or have phone calls to make,” said Bove. “People ask me how my time’s been and you have no idea,” said Johnson. “It’s 365 days a year in college. You’re on the phone with advisers, agents, parents and kids. Then you got your guys. You put it all into a funnel and let it come out on a calendar and you definitely have more free time in professional baseball than coaching in the SEC.” It is odd to live in a world where the Minnesota Twins are the trend-setters and organization like the New York Yankees are trying to follow suit. The Twins did well in capitalizing on a market inefficiency but that avenue might be closing soon as other teams pillage college programs. Click here to view the article

One of the interesting things about Stashak is how he releases the ball on his slider -- his thumb is way more involved in the process. Typically you see pitchers tuck their thumb either on the side or under for the slider but Stashak's thumb is behind it. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1154022266709204992 The only other pitcher I could come up with who does this is Dan Straily. I don't have video evidence of this but it appears he does this with his fastball too. It must create some unique spin direction or a different look than what most hitters are used to.

I don't think a league switching the specs of a baseball is such an unprecedented conspiracy -- Japan's commissioner resigned in shame after they admitted to secretly adjusting the baseball in efforts to boost offensive production -- and there is historical evidence that altering the makeup of the baseball production has unintentional consequences on how the ball travels. I don't know if this was an intentional ploy (I tend to believe this wasn't a shadowy parking garage exchange of de-juiced baseballs) or just the inclusion of balls that were manufactured differently for the postseason. As far as Rob's research goes, I have complete faith that he conducted his study as thoroughly as possible. When you look at his thread, you can see he addresses almost every concern (weather, wind, sample size, etc). There is something there.

Since the beginning of August, the New York Yankees’ American League Division Series Game One starter, James Paxton, has been one of the most effective pitchers in the American League. Over his last 11 outings Paxton had held opponents to a .177 average against -- fifth-best in baseball behind such luminaries as St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty, Houston’s Gerrit Cole, Cincinnati’s Sonny Gray and New York’s Jacob Degrom. In short, Paxton is a big lefty who can dial it up into the mid-to-upper 90s, drop a mean deuce on you, isn’t afraid of dive-bombing birds of prey, and is currently red hot. He should also be terrified of facing the Minnesota Twins.At the very basic level, the Twins’ roster was constructed to dismantle left-handed pitching. They’ve been very thorough in that department. This season, nobody has out-slugged or out-homered the Twins when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. Since 2009, their 95 home runs off lefties is the most in MLB. Like all humanoids, Paxton has weaknesses and the Twins can exploit them. First, he is most susceptible in the first two pitches of each at-bat. Early in the count he relies on his four-seam fastball and fills the strike zone, usually in the upper third, to work ahead. This season, opponents are hitting .333 with a .598 slugging percentage in the first two pitches of a plate appearance. So one would expect the Twins to emphasize attacking early in the plate appearance because, if Paxton is able to slip into pitch three and beyond, opponents are hitting just .215 with a .370 slugging. This is where he is able to deploy his big bending knuckle-curve and his darting cutter. Still, hitting Paxton’s fastball isn’t babytown frolics. According to Statcast’s data, his four-seam fastball’s movement profiles, in terms of rise and run, closely to that of Minnesota Twins’ Devin Smeltzer. So the elements that makes Smeltzer’s fastball get a lot of empty swings -- it stays on the release plane longer while cutting in a bit to righties, Paxton’s does the same thing only at a higher velocity. Essentially, both pitchers have a lot of carry on their fastballs and hitters struggle to put wood on the high spin fastball. How hitters can combat this is through what Nelson Cruz has preached all year -- by staying on top of the ball. In a recent interview with Fangraphs, Cruz outlined how he attacks the high velocity, high spin pitchers, which was by driving his hands down and inside the baseball. In all, the Twins right-handers haven’t been challenged that often by that type of stuff. The righties have seen 93-plus fastballs at the top of the zone 381 times in 2019 which ended 81 plate appearances. Collectively, they hit .289, with Mitch Garver’s 4-for-10 with 2 home runs being the best performance. Both Cruz and Miguel Sano are the only other two with home runs on that type of velocity. Jonathan Schoop has also fared well against that pitching. While being aggressive early in the count should be rewarded against Paxton, the first inning will be critical. This season, opponents have posted a 1.015 OPS against him in the first. That is a byproduct of Paxton struggling against the first four hitters of a lineup (a .996 OPS), while limiting damage on hitters five through nine (.499 OPS, well below the league average of .711). In fact, he has allowed 22 home runs to the first four hitters while relinquishing just one to the last five. It is difficult to say why this effect is playing out -- most likely because of the quality of hitter -- and the Twins’ lineup depth should be more formidable than, say, the Orioles, but it reaffirms that Paxton can be touched up. Earlier this year, Paxton has been a pitcher who was reportedly tipping his pitches against the Astros. In the stretch position, Paxton had displayed a lot of forearm arm when he came set and that may have given Houston’s hitters a head’s up between the fastball and his breaking ball (different grips can reveal a different look to the hitter). Ultimately, Paxton adjusted that set position to conceal his in-glove grip. For the astute observer, at least in his last few starters, Paxton has a tendency to occasionally telegraph his slow curveball from the wind-up position, as video shows him turning his glove quicker into his rotation more so than he does when he is going to throw a fastball. With the prevalence of video in the clubhouse and dugout, it is possible that the Twins can capitalize on this. Then again, he’s 10-and-oh over his last 11 outings so it is entirely possible that hitters can’t pick that up quickly enough. To summarize, for the Twins the name of the game is being aggressive. Hitters will need to look for the four-seam fastball up in the zone and attempt to stay on top of it. Paxton is the proverbial pitcher who can settle in and dispatch his slow knuckle-curve and his sharp cutter which tunnel well off each other. It is not a waiting game against Paxton, it needs to be an assault. Click here to view the article

they shoulda drafted mike trout.

Right but he wasn't swinging at a certain area off the plate and now he is. Pitchers did attack that zone at the beginning of the year, Rosario just laid off.

Right. Of course it wasn't a steep of a decline like that. He was still at a 742 OPS in August. The main difference between the Mar/Apr and late Aug/Sept numbers is the pitches he chooses to swing at. The sense of what he can and cannot handle eroded. He's a streaky hitter over his career, for sure, and that comes with the territory of being one that expands the zone. I also have no doubt that his ankle injury likely hindered his performance since returning. His sprint speed is down. One thing that is notable too is that his doubles total, for the first time in his career, is lower (21) than his home run total (28). Also, and this is random, but holy cow he had 15 triples in his rookie season?!

I think he's playing hurt too but that really doesn't involve the swing decision process. If he were swinging through a bunch of in-zone pitches or had a steep drop off in fly ball distance, I'd be more inclined to think injuries are effecting his offensive performance. Furthermore, if injuries are a source for his offensive issues (I can see a scenario where his ankle injury *could be* forcing him to start his swing earlier or pushier thus messing with pitch recognition), dialing back and reducing his reach would be beneficial.

When it comes to the Opening Day outfield, Eddie Rosario is the last man standing. Yes, the left-handed slugger had suffered through his share of injuries, missing time in June and July with a sprained ankle, but it was at a time when the roster was bubbling with health. We’ve got plenty of outfielders. Take your time. But now? Byron Buxton’s season is over. Marwin Gonzalez hasn’t been seen since the end of August. Max Kepler, another healthy warrior who avoided major injuries for most of the year, has tweaked stuff. Even the backups like Jake Cave have fallen. It should be expected. After all, baseball is a war of attrition. Roster depth and flexibility are supremely valued. As manager Lou Brown said to the owner on Major League, “over 162 games and even tough guys get strains... Sore arms... Muscle pulls…” Baseball is a non-stop, death by paper-cuts thrill ride where you sometimes have to do it all over again less than 24 hours later. And, if your roster is sufficiently depleted, sometimes a player needs to power through the strains, sore arms and muscle pulls for the good of the team. Which brings us back to Eddie Rosario.Over the last three years, Rosario has hit 23 home runs on pitches outside of the rulebook strike zone. The next closest is Trey Mancini with 15. His .403 slugging percentage over those three years is the best in the game. He maintains a .247 average outside of the zone -- fourth-best behind guys like Altuve and Benintendi. Everyone wants to hold up Ted Williams’ magical multi-colored chart as a sacred tablet when it comes to hitting instruction but the truth is that for many hitters, their “happy zone”, as Williams called it, can also extend to areas out of the box. From 2015 through 2017, Minnesota Twins fans witnessed Brian Dozier slug 16 home runs on pitches out of the zone, mostly at his eye level. For Rosario, his extrazonal happy place was on pitches between him and the plate, where he could turn and burn, or above the zone, where his deep barrel turn assisted him in catching elevated fastballs. So naturally, being able to make solid contact on those pitches is going to beget more out of zone swings. It’s a dubious skill set, to be sure. Like being really good at smoking an entire pack of cigarettes at once. Sure, it may look impressive in the moment but eventually you are going to pay for it. If you stick to your strength -- swinging at pitches in your happy zone wherever that may be — you will succeed. If that target drifts however... And here is where Rosario has run afoul of late. When Rosario started the season off hot in March, April and May, his 40% chase rate was the fifth highest in the league. He was just hitting a lot of those out of zone pitches well. He had six extra-base hits, including three home runs. The vast majority of those swings came on pitches just inside. Since the end of August, however, pitchers have gotten Rosario to extend his arms and chase after pitches off the other side of the plate. In April, Rosario swung at just 27% of pitches that were outside. Over the last couple of weeks, Rosario’s swing rate at those pitches has increased to 51%. Opponents have noted this trend and have adjusted accordingly, feeding him more pitches just off the plate and allowing him to generate weak contact, if any at all. At the beginning of the year, pitchers would challenge him and give more ripe pitches. Between his ability to drive those pitches and his inability to lay off the outside ones, teams are staying away. This is a swing decision issue. There have been no mechanical changes that would result in a hole in the swing. Rosario could stand to quiet his pre-swing movements similar to Miguel Sano -- the big drawback of his hands undoubtedly lead to some timing issues -- but he has always had the big load process and has had previous success with it. And there hasn’t been a substantial drop in exit velocity on contact that would suggest an injury, as even the most minor nagging injuries can alter things at this point in the season. In fact, his exit velo is better now than back in April. That said, this has the signs of an issue upstairs. As the “Eddie” chants grow increasingly louder at Target Field and the stakes have risen, Rosario has found himself without the lineup cushion that once surrounded him. Furthermore, his innate desire to play the role of the hero may be a catalyst for his audacious swing rate. He is forcing things to happen when he and the team would be better served if he exercised patience. There is no question that the Twins need Eddie Rosario -- the early season version Eddie Rosario -- more than ever. That would require some restraint. Does Rosario have that kind of restraint? Does he have the ability to turn off the ego and quiet the voice in his head that tells him to swing and drive in that run no matter where the pitch is? With the division lead shrinking and a postseason run at stake, the Twins need Rosario to wrangle it. Click here to view the article