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Seth Stohs

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Everything posted by Seth Stohs

  1. There's two sides to it... 1.) like you said, people keep asking the questions, knowing the answers, but 2.) he could show a little maturity and not say such things, or phrase things differently.
  2. First, Ryan isn't going to express exuberance when talking about pretty much anyone, particularly anyone who hasn't made it yet. Always something to work on... But Palka was my 25th or so Twins prospect this year. He's in a couple of Top 20s, and he's actually outside of many people's top 30s. I find him intriguing, but all the strikeouts are one reason he isn't ranked higher.
  3. I guess I don't as a bad thing. I'm OK with that. I would expect a similar number this year, Probably 2-4 again this year. Nolasco and Tonkin are possibilities, via trade or release. Milone potentially via trade. Arcia potentially via trade. If the is a trade, it'd likely be for a key contributor at this point which would take prospects rather than necessarily Opening Day guys. Generally speaking, this is a good thing. Obviously with Berrios and Duffey at AAA, and they both will pitch significant innings for the Twins this year, there will be moves. There's no question about that. (unless something unforeseen happens with them)
  4. Not exactly the same since he would have to be released from his contract (player development contract). But I'm sure the Twins wouldn't hold that up. He could wind up with another organization, though at this time, it's more likely he will go to an independent league team and try to put up some numbers and show defense so that an organization can go to him if there is a need later in the season.
  5. Not without being released first.
  6. Kind of just a numbers game. He dominated at the lower levels. Not sure about this spring, though that's probably a small part of the decision.
  7. This morning, infielder Tanner Vavra made the decision to leave the Twins organization. He definitely plans to play again somewhere:
  8. I think that's the general thinking, but the high strikeouts in Korea (even compared to Kang) is at least alarming. That's 100% the concern in my mind.
  9. I agree. I do feel like I'm a little maybe on the low end, and he absolutely could post an .840 OPS. Like Buxton, who could post a .640 OPS or an .800 OPS. I think those are the types of question marks throughout this team, but they're guys that they just need to go with. Joe Mauer could post a .670 OPS or an .800 OPS. Eddie Rosario could post a .600 OPS or an .800 OPS. Miguel Sano could post a .750 OPS or a .950 OPS. Eduardo Escobar could post a .620 OPS or a .750 OPS. Trevor Plouffe could post a .680 OPS or a .780 OPS. All these guys have to play, and a lot, and how they fit into those ranges will determine how the win-loss record looks at the end of the year.
  10. Greatest near-complete sentence in Twins Daily history (well, I don't remember many individual sentences, but this is a great one!)... Suddenly yesterday he said that the Twins were doing Kennys Vargas wrong. His whining about Tom Kelly wanting him to use the field is annoying too, and old. Ironically, Ortiz his a lot of balls off of (and sometimes over) the green monster during his years with the Red Sox. The funny thing is that people seem to care what he thinks. Who cares if he thinks it's dumb for the Twins to move Sano to right field? I think it's the right decision for the Twins based on their current roster. Is he more right or wrong than me? I'm not claiming to be more right or wrong than him. It's an opinion. It's not facts, yet so many treat what he says like he knows. Ortiz couldn't play 1B and would have been awful in the outfield. He wasn't as good of an athlete as Sano, so it's not apples to apples. But, he's retiring, so we seem to care. All the while, he's showing that he hates the Twins for some reason, even though they did give him a great opportunity to start his career. And, frankly, with his frequent injuries and bad knees on the Metrodome turf, he should thank the Twins for letting him go. Don't forget, the Red Sox signed him in mid-March and gave him an opportunity to platoon with Kevin Millar to start the season. Good for him for taking off, whatever he did to do it.
  11. The other thing to remember is that the Opening Day roster is the Twins roster for a fairly small sample size of the season. Consider last year, their Opening Day roster didn't even last until Opening Day. The Twins depth is what will sustain them over the course of the season, hopefully.
  12. How many trades like that have there been in the last 20 years? There are few prospect-for-prospect trades. I guess there was Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda, but even when that happened the biggest talker was about how rare those trades are. I actually think it can be a good idea for clearing roster spots on the 40, but it takes just the right circumstances.
  13. It's always easy to look to the future rather than the guys of the present who maybe haven't been what we thought or hoped they might be... But consider the amount of AAA domination that Tonkin has had compared to the amount of success that Nick Burdi, JT Chargois, Jake Reed and Mason Melotakis have had in AAA (or AA, if you will). If those guys become that, they will get plenty of chances, but you definitely don't want to lose a guy who throws 97 for nothing. Obviously the leash for Tonkin is fairly short, especially if those guys continue to pitch well. But I don't have a problem with him being on the roster.
  14. I like Shane's numbers much better too, but you all know I'm such a negative guy. Ha! I do think he looks very capable.at the plate and certainly can be just fine at first base. I'm guessing that since we didn't see him even once at 3B, we know how good his defense might be there.
  15. In early November, Twins fans were surprised to learn that the team had won the bid and had the exclusive rights to negotiate with Byung Ho Park. Park then helped Korea to the championship of the inaugural Premier12 event. Park homered in the championship game. Soon after, he arrived in Minnesota and signed a four-year deal. It was announced that he will be the Twins primary DH. He won a Gold Glove in the KBO, so he will also get some time at first base for the Twins as well. However, the Twins didn’t watch him in high school and many times over the last decade because of his glove. It was his bat and power potential that caught teams' eyes. He has spent most of the past five years playing for Nexon in the KBO. In that time, he has been the league’s top player. Over the last two years, he has homered 105 times. Each of the past three seasons, he has hit over .300, been on base at least 43% of the time and posted OPS well over 1.000. Park is certainly intriguing. No one should expect him to hit 50 home runs a year in the far-superior MLB. There will be an adjustment for Park and that will make predicting Park’s 2016 really difficult. Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, USA Today In early November, Twins fans were surprised to learn that the team had won the bid and had the exclusive rights to negotiate with Byung Ho Park. Park then helped Korea to the championship of the inaugural Premier12 event. Park homered in the championship game. Soon after, he arrived in Minnesota and signed a four-year deal. It was announced that he will be the Twins primary DH. He won a Gold Glove in the KBO, so he will also get some time at first base for the Twins as well. However, the Twins didn’t watch him in high school and many times over the last decade because of his glove. It was his bat and power potential that caught teams' eyes. He has spent most of the past five years playing for Nexon in the KBO. In that time, he has been the league’s top player. Over the last two years, he has homered 105 times. Each of the past three seasons, he has hit over .300, been on base at least 43% of the time and posted OPS well over 1.000. Park is certainly intriguing. No one should expect him to hit 50 home runs a year in the far-superior MLB. There will be an adjustment for Park and that will make predicting Park’s 2016 really difficult. Parks’ Nexen teammate in 2014, Jung Ho Kang signed with Pittsburgh and spent his rookie season with the Pirates. After a slow start, he played quite well and if not for a late-season injury, he was giving Kris Bryant a run for NL rookie of the year. Let’s take a look at Kang’s transition last year: 2014 Nexen (age 27) - .356/.459/.739 (1.198) with 36-2B, 40 HR, 68 BB, 106K 2015 MLB (age 28) - ..287/.355/.461 (.816) with 24-2B, 15 HR, 28 BB, 99 KHere is Byung Ho Park’s 2015 in Korea: 2015 Nexen (age 28) - .343/.436/.714 (1.150) with 35-2B, 53 HR, 78 BB, 161 K 2016 MLB (age 29) - We shall find out.While the numbers are pretty similar in the two players’ year before moving to MLB, there are some differences. Park had been better for longer. Park walked a bit more, but he struck out significantly more, and therein lies the concern. If it was just about those overall numbers, we could do some basic math and figure that Park would OPS somewhere around .780. But that strikeout rate is certainly more alarming coming into MLB than Kang’s was. Spring training has shown that Park can perform. He should not be overwhelmed. He hit three home runs, all on fastballs. He took quality at-bats. He drove in runs. He gave reason for optimism, and yet fans need to know that there will be some difficult moments and weeks for Park. Just like any rookie. But I’m more optimistic now that he can make the transition. So, what is in store for him in 2016? Below you’ll find my predictions for Park in 2016. KEY NUMBERS 29 - Though he is a rookie, and arguably a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2016, he will turn 30 in mid-July. To some extent, he is what he is at this point. He’s actually closer to the end of his prime than the middle of it. However, he is still capable of adjusting, he certainly will have to, and we all hope he will. 105... but 303 - Yes, Park was a power hitting star in the KBO, knocking 105 home runs over the last two seasons. However, he also struck out 303 times in that same time frame. His strikeout rate was between 24% and 26% the last couple of years. I would predict that he’ll strike out closer to 30% in his upcoming rookie season. PREDICTIONS Byung Ho Park: 471 at-bats, .247/.318/.423 (.741), 23 doubles, 0 triples, 20 home runs. With the transition and the rough times I would expect Park to get a day off each week and maybe two days off in the rougher weeks. Remember that Molitor will want to get Oswaldo Arcia’s bat into the lineup on a somewhat regular basis and DH is a good spot for that. As you can see, I predict him to struggle. I think that .741 OPS will be right around league average, and maybe that’s pretty good for a rookie. My hope, of course, would be that we will see improvement from April to June, from June to August, and so on. He will hit some home runs. I feel like my number might be a little low, and he will hit doubles too. While those numbers might seem disappointing, I do believe that Park is going to be fine, and I think he’s shown enough that over the course of his four (and optionally five) years with the Twins under this contract, he will become a better than average hitter with even more power. YOUR TURN Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Byung Ho Park in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe Eduardo Escobar Eddie Rosario Byron Buxton Miguel Sano View full article
  16. Parks’ Nexen teammate in 2014, Jung Ho Kang signed with Pittsburgh and spent his rookie season with the Pirates. After a slow start, he played quite well and if not for a late-season injury, he was giving Kris Bryant a run for NL rookie of the year. Let’s take a look at Kang’s transition last year: 2014 Nexen (age 27) - .356/.459/.739 (1.198) with 36-2B, 40 HR, 68 BB, 106K 2015 MLB (age 28) - ..287/.355/.461 (.816) with 24-2B, 15 HR, 28 BB, 99 K Here is Byung Ho Park’s 2015 in Korea: 2015 Nexen (age 28) - .343/.436/.714 (1.150) with 35-2B, 53 HR, 78 BB, 161 K 2016 MLB (age 29) - We shall find out. While the numbers are pretty similar in the two players’ year before moving to MLB, there are some differences. Park had been better for longer. Park walked a bit more, but he struck out significantly more, and therein lies the concern. If it was just about those overall numbers, we could do some basic math and figure that Park would OPS somewhere around .780. But that strikeout rate is certainly more alarming coming into MLB than Kang’s was. Spring training has shown that Park can perform. He should not be overwhelmed. He hit three home runs, all on fastballs. He took quality at-bats. He drove in runs. He gave reason for optimism, and yet fans need to know that there will be some difficult moments and weeks for Park. Just like any rookie. But I’m more optimistic now that he can make the transition. So, what is in store for him in 2016? Below you’ll find my predictions for Park in 2016. KEY NUMBERS 29 - Though he is a rookie, and arguably a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2016, he will turn 30 in mid-July. To some extent, he is what he is at this point. He’s actually closer to the end of his prime than the middle of it. However, he is still capable of adjusting, he certainly will have to, and we all hope he will. 105... but 303 - Yes, Park was a power hitting star in the KBO, knocking 105 home runs over the last two seasons. However, he also struck out 303 times in that same time frame. His strikeout rate was between 24% and 26% the last couple of years. I would predict that he’ll strike out closer to 30% in his upcoming rookie season. PREDICTIONS Byung Ho Park: 471 at-bats, .247/.318/.423 (.741), 23 doubles, 0 triples, 20 home runs. With the transition and the rough times I would expect Park to get a day off each week and maybe two days off in the rougher weeks. Remember that Molitor will want to get Oswaldo Arcia’s bat into the lineup on a somewhat regular basis and DH is a good spot for that. As you can see, I predict him to struggle. I think that .741 OPS will be right around league average, and maybe that’s pretty good for a rookie. My hope, of course, would be that we will see improvement from April to June, from June to August, and so on. He will hit some home runs. I feel like my number might be a little low, and he will hit doubles too. While those numbers might seem disappointing, I do believe that Park is going to be fine, and I think he’s shown enough that over the course of his four (and optionally five) years with the Twins under this contract, he will become a better than average hitter with even more power. YOUR TURN Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Byung Ho Park in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe Eduardo Escobar Eddie Rosario Byron Buxton Miguel Sano
  17. Had nothing to do with the outcomes. Had to do with complete lack of command of his pitches. Again, he'll be fine, but definitely understandable that he isn't there opening day.
  18. He must not have watched Berrios pitch this spring... He'll come up, but it's not about service time right now.
  19. Here are the leaders in Plate Appearances: https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/715227366801477632
  20. He's playing his 17th spring game today... Others: 24 - Mastroianni 22 - Beresford, Arcia 19 - Nunez 18 - Escobar, Park, Santana 17 - Dozier, Rosario, Sano 16 - Buxton, Sweeney, Plouffe 15 - Mauer (includes today's game if they started) He's playing a pretty normal amount. As a leadoff hitter, he's usually out of the games he plays a little earlier than some (just because he gets that 3rd or 4th at bat sooner).
  21. I thought about mentioning or linking somehow to those stories, but 1.) They're old topics, 2.) he's playing RF this year and likely beyond
  22. On July 1st, we learned officially that the Twins had called up Miguel Sano from AA Chattanooga and would be their DH the rest of the season. The Twins needed a bat, and Sano provided so much more than ever could have been hoped. He provided power in the middle of the lineup and a jolt that the Twins really needed. In fact, he was named the team’s MVP despite spending only half of the season with the big club. So, what is in store for him in 2016? Well, let’s try to put together a prediction, but then let’s sit back and watch and enjoy! Miguel Sano has been talked about for years. The Twins signed him for $3.15 million in October of 2009, but he was well-known in scouting circles for several years all ready. He was immensely talented, big, strong and growing. He had a huge year in 2013 and was invited to big league camp in 2014. Unfortunately, he missed the full season due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2015 and really struggled for the first month in Chattanooga. We found out last month that there was a lot going on in his personal life. But it wasn’t long into May when he took off and for the next six or seven weeks, he destroyed the AA pitching in the Southern League. He came to the Twins and played great. Along with being the Twins choice for MVP, he was also their top rookie. He finished behind only Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor in Rookie of the Year voting. The Twins signed Byung Ho Park from Korea to DH and play some first base. They were unable to trade Trevor Plouffe (whether they tried to or not). Torii Hunter decided to retire. They insisted (and Sano consistently agreed) that they did not want him to be a full-time DH at 22 or 23. So the decision was made to have him move out to right field. Hunter was the Twins primary right fielder in 2015 though others played there as well. Twins right fielders hit .239 which ranked 27th in baseball. The .283 on-base percentage ranked 29th. The .400 slugging percentage ranked 22nd. Twins right fielders were 23rd in runs, 24th in doubles, 14th in home runs. Let’s just say that I think Miguel Sano will be able to help the Twins improve their rankings in right field. Image courtesy of Kim Klement, USA Today On July 1st, we learned officially that the Twins had called up Miguel Sano from AA Chattanooga and would be their DH the rest of the season. The Twins needed a bat, and Sano provided so much more than ever could have been hoped. He provided power in the middle of the lineup and a jolt that the Twins really needed. In fact, he was named the team’s MVP despite spending only half of the season with the big club. So, what is in store for him in 2016? Well, let’s try to put together a prediction, but then let’s sit back and watch and enjoy! Miguel Sano has been talked about for years. The Twins signed him for $3.15 million in October of 2009, but he was well-known in scouting circles for several years all ready. He was immensely talented, big, strong and growing. He had a huge year in 2013 and was invited to big league camp in 2014. Unfortunately, he missed the full season due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2015 and really struggled for the first month in Chattanooga. We found out last month that there was a lot going on in his personal life. But it wasn’t long into May when he took off and for the next six or seven weeks, he destroyed the AA pitching in the Southern League. He came to the Twins and played great. Along with being the Twins choice for MVP, he was also their top rookie. He finished behind only Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor in Rookie of the Year voting. The Twins signed Byung Ho Park from Korea to DH and play some first base. They were unable to trade Trevor Plouffe (whether they tried to or not). Torii Hunter decided to retire. They insisted (and Sano consistently agreed) that they did not want him to be a full-time DH at 22 or 23. So the decision was made to have him move out to right field. Hunter was the Twins primary right fielder in 2015 though others played there as well. Twins right fielders hit .239 which ranked 27th in baseball. The .283 on-base percentage ranked 29th. The .400 slugging percentage ranked 22nd. Twins right fielders were 23rd in runs, 24th in doubles, 14th in home runs. Let’s just say that I think Miguel Sano will be able to help the Twins improve their rankings in right field. Word of Warning: I fear that Sano’s debut performance, along with the prospect status bestowed upon him for almost a decade now, may have set the bar unfairly high for the slugger. As you’ll see below, I am as guilty as anyone in that category. I think it’s important to remember that he will not turn 23-years-old until May 11. KEY NUMBERS 15.8% - Everyone knows that Miguel Sano will be breaking the Twins single-season strikeout record in 2016. Not only did he end up working a full count in 28% of his at-bats (hat tip Nick Nelson), but got on via the walk 15.8% of the time. Next highest in the American League last year was Mike Trout at 21%. It’s amazing to think that a guy who could break not only the Twins single-season record for strikeouts but also the MLB record puts together great at-bats. That said, if he can reduce the strikeouts, imagine how much more damage he can do. 15.8% of his plate appearances resulted in a walk, but don’t worry. It is highly unlikely that he will break the Twins record. In fact, Harmon Killebrew topped that number in eight seasons with the Twins, peaking in 1969 when he walked in 20.5% of his 707 plate appearances. And just for some comparison, Joe Mauer's best season in terms of walk percentage was 14.0% in 2012. His career walk rate is 11.9%. In other words, Miguel Sano will likely walk at a significantly higher rate than Joe Mauer ever has in his career. 3 - Miguel Sano should bat third in the Twins lineup most games for several reasons. First, it would sure be nice for him to get a plate appearances right away in the first inning. Sure, if he bats fourth, if he hits in the first inning, it is with a runner on base. However, for the same reason we don’t mind Brian Dozier putting the Twins ahead 1-0 in the first, having Sano make that possible each game is also good. If Dozier and Mauer are on base, it could be two or three to nothing. After the first inning, it is also possible that Byron Buxton will be on base when Sano comes to the plate. In 2015, Twins fourth batters came to the plate 688 times. Their number three hitters had 703 times. While it’s only 2.5 to 3.0 plate appearances per month, it adds up over the course of the year. PREDICTIONS Miguel Sano: 554 At-bats, .287/.398/.538 (.936), 37 doubles, 1 triples, 35 home runs. The Twins are going to want Sano in the lineup every day. He will continue to be thrown into right field, through the good, the bad and the ugly most days. When he isn’t, it is likely he will get quite a few games as a DH as well. That will allow Byung Ho Park to get some time at first base and give Joe Mauer a few days off. I don’t expect Sano to break the single-season MLB strikeout record (223), but he will certainly break Dozier’s strikeout record at 148. While I want to say that he won’t walk as often as he did in 2015 (15.8%), I have a hard time believing that he will walk any less. Hence, I gave him an IsoD of .111. I also think that he has the ability to hit for a decent average too. I’m not saying he’s going to hit .330 like he did for a half-season in Ft. Myers, but I don’t think .300 is out of the realm of possibility for him in time. As I was thinking through some predictions for Sano in 2016, one thought came to my mind. If Miguel Sano were to spend the full season with the Twins and stay healthy, what if he “only” hit 29 home runs. Would Twins fans be disappointed? There seems to be a general acceptance that he is a given to hit 35 homers a year, but that isn’t as easy as people want to think. That said, I put him at 35 home runs. If he were to post the .936 OPS that I suggest above, only six players in MLB had an OPS higher than that in 2015. YOUR TURN Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Miguel Sano in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe Eduardo Escobar Eddie Rosario Byron Buxton View full article
  23. Word of Warning: I fear that Sano’s debut performance, along with the prospect status bestowed upon him for almost a decade now, may have set the bar unfairly high for the slugger. As you’ll see below, I am as guilty as anyone in that category. I think it’s important to remember that he will not turn 23-years-old until May 11. KEY NUMBERS 15.8% - Everyone knows that Miguel Sano will be breaking the Twins single-season strikeout record in 2016. Not only did he end up working a full count in 28% of his at-bats (hat tip Nick Nelson), but got on via the walk 15.8% of the time. Next highest in the American League last year was Mike Trout at 21%. It’s amazing to think that a guy who could break not only the Twins single-season record for strikeouts but also the MLB record puts together great at-bats. That said, if he can reduce the strikeouts, imagine how much more damage he can do. 15.8% of his plate appearances resulted in a walk, but don’t worry. It is highly unlikely that he will break the Twins record. In fact, Harmon Killebrew topped that number in eight seasons with the Twins, peaking in 1969 when he walked in 20.5% of his 707 plate appearances. And just for some comparison, Joe Mauer's best season in terms of walk percentage was 14.0% in 2012. His career walk rate is 11.9%. In other words, Miguel Sano will likely walk at a significantly higher rate than Joe Mauer ever has in his career. 3 - Miguel Sano should bat third in the Twins lineup most games for several reasons. First, it would sure be nice for him to get a plate appearances right away in the first inning. Sure, if he bats fourth, if he hits in the first inning, it is with a runner on base. However, for the same reason we don’t mind Brian Dozier putting the Twins ahead 1-0 in the first, having Sano make that possible each game is also good. If Dozier and Mauer are on base, it could be two or three to nothing. After the first inning, it is also possible that Byron Buxton will be on base when Sano comes to the plate. In 2015, Twins fourth batters came to the plate 688 times. Their number three hitters had 703 times. While it’s only 2.5 to 3.0 plate appearances per month, it adds up over the course of the year. PREDICTIONS Miguel Sano: 554 At-bats, .287/.398/.538 (.936), 37 doubles, 1 triples, 35 home runs. The Twins are going to want Sano in the lineup every day. He will continue to be thrown into right field, through the good, the bad and the ugly most days. When he isn’t, it is likely he will get quite a few games as a DH as well. That will allow Byung Ho Park to get some time at first base and give Joe Mauer a few days off. I don’t expect Sano to break the single-season MLB strikeout record (223), but he will certainly break Dozier’s strikeout record at 148. While I want to say that he won’t walk as often as he did in 2015 (15.8%), I have a hard time believing that he will walk any less. Hence, I gave him an IsoD of .111. I also think that he has the ability to hit for a decent average too. I’m not saying he’s going to hit .330 like he did for a half-season in Ft. Myers, but I don’t think .300 is out of the realm of possibility for him in time. As I was thinking through some predictions for Sano in 2016, one thought came to my mind. If Miguel Sano were to spend the full season with the Twins and stay healthy, what if he “only” hit 29 home runs. Would Twins fans be disappointed? There seems to be a general acceptance that he is a given to hit 35 homers a year, but that isn’t as easy as people want to think. That said, I put him at 35 home runs. If he were to post the .936 OPS that I suggest above, only six players in MLB had an OPS higher than that in 2015. YOUR TURN Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Miguel Sano in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe Eduardo Escobar Eddie Rosario Byron Buxton
  24. We'll do roster previews for all four Twins minor league teams next week...
  25. I don't think that the fact that he hasn't before necessarily makes it certain that he wouldn't now. Obviously some would depend on how well (or poor) he is pitching if/when removed from the rotation, and maybe if there is some need in the bullpen at that time... And yes, to trade him, it would take taking on a bad deal or taking on 90-95% of his remaining contract.
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