Seth Stohs

According to Parker, who was in Terry Ryan's pregame press meeting, Ryan said that they are giving Quentin a couple of days to figure out his options and what he wants to do. He's hoping that Quentin will accept going to AAA, but who knows.

Terry Ryan confirmed that the 13 hitters listed will be up... including Buxton.

When I get them, though that may take a day as these players may not report today but they'll need it for tomorrow.

Nick wrote this article on John Ryan Murphy after talking to him earlier this week: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/spring-training-2016/twins-banking-on-murphys-growth-r4528 Sorry if you've been disappointed in the coverage. When we go down there, we all have different goals and different styles. Though I would go in the Twins clubhouse and talk to guys for a little bit before practice each morning, I also spent a ton of time watching the minor league side. I also took a ton of pictures for the Twitter page but also for minor league reports throughout the season. Nick also got to the clubhouse earlier and wrote a great Notes column each day as well as a feature each night. But as others mentioned, we do want to do things and write stories that you won't find elsewhere, topics that the mainstream guys aren't covering. We definitely appreciate your input and hopefully we can go again next year and we can try to get ideas for story ideas.

A long time... which means that this decision, whatever they decide, is solely based on baseball reasoning, not any of that business, service time stuff.

Yeah, I'd be shocked too if he made it.

A.

See, I'm not always the most optimistic... Then again, I'm only under those other projections and thoughts by like .015 points of batting average, which is .030 points of OPS... not too bad.

Santana and Arcia would certainly get claimed. Tonkin is a maybe.

And Rogers, and Chargois, and maybe Meyer, and maybe Reed, and maybe Melotakis.

Which means >75% of his hits were singles. Again, don't get me wrong... if it was me, I'd have him up, and I still have him at 50/50, and I think that's probably a little low. And, of course, infield hits and turning singles into doubles and doubles into triple is part of what he does.

I don't think anyone would disagree.

I wouldn't say Buxton "pounded AAA last year." He hit in all 13 games and hit .400, but he didn't pound the ball at all. I watched or listened to pretty much all of those games. Most of the hits were slow rollers in the infield and some bloopers. He did hit a couple of balls really hard. I should point out also that if it was me, Buxton would be a given as the CF.

We are now just over a week from Opening Day. As we get closer to Opening Day, I somehow feel much less certain about my predictions for the roster. The questions that were there at the beginning of the camp, to some degree, remain. In the meantime, a couple more have presented themselves. This morning, the Twins optioned Max Kepler to Rochester, and Ryan Sweeney was given his release from the organization. There are now 35 players remaining at big league spring training. That’s nearly half of the number that began big league camp, but within a week, the Twins will have their final roster by dropping nine or ten more players (depending upon DL needs). So, I thought it would be a good time for one final Roster Projection before Opening Day to discuss some of the remaining questions. Share yours below. Image courtesy of Tyler Duffey (by Evan Habeeb, USA Today), Byron Buxton (by Jerome Miron, USA Today), Michael Tonkin (by Tim Fuller, USA Today) We are now just over a week from Opening Day. As we get closer to Opening Day, I somehow feel much less certain about my predictions for the roster. The questions that were there at the beginning of the camp, to some degree, remain. In the meantime, a couple more have presented themselves. This morning, the Twins optioned Max Kepler to Rochester, and Ryan Sweeney was given his release from the organization. There are now 35 players remaining at big league spring training. That’s nearly half of the number that began big league camp, but within a week, the Twins will have their final roster by dropping nine or ten more players (depending upon DL needs). So, I thought it would be a good time for one final Roster Projection before Opening Day to discuss some of the remaining questions. Share yours below. (As always, this is just a projection, a prediction of what a roster could look like on Opening Day. It is fully my opinion based on observation, reading, and too much time thinking about such things. Names in bold are givens, in my opinion.) Starting Pitchers (5): Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey (remaining: Logan Darnell) The top three pitchers have been announced as the Twins opening series starters. They have yet to name the fourth and fifth starters, so there are some questions. In my mind, Tommy Milone has been a given all along, even if they haven’t said it yet. So, it really comes down to Tyler Duffey and Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has pitched better, especially of late. Duffey has, frankly, struggled. They each have one more start to go before a decision would be made, and maybe they could both go to Washington and make starts before a final decision is made. I’m going to leave it at Tyler Duffey, but I feel very little confidence in that right now. In my mind, the Twins brass needs to ask this question; Is it better to have a two-pitch Duffey in the rotation right away, or better to send him to Rochester for two months to attempt to improve his change-up? Frankly, if he doesn’t develop the change-up as a quality third pitch, his long-term future is likely to be in the bullpen. Relief Pitchers (8): Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Fernando Abad, Ricky Nolasco, Michael Tonkin, Ryan Pressly (remaining: Ryan O’Rourke (40), Brandon Kintzler, Dan Runzler) First, I think if Tyler Duffey is not named the fifth starter, he will be optioned to Rochester. However, if Nolasco is not a starter, they will have to move him to the bullpen. That’s just the reality. We will see how that goes. So, that’s either zero or one roster spot. The first five names listed above are givens. No question about that in my mind. Though Abad hasn’t been great, I feel that he is going to be given a spot. Removing Mike Strong from the 40-man roster makes that even more likely. So there are five givens, and since I show Duffey as starting, that would make Nolasco a given as well. That puts us as six, and I think that Ryan Pressly has earned a job. I bolded his name above as a given, but not 100% certain. The elephant in the room remains Michael Tonkin. When I was there eight days ago, he was not good, and I was certain that he would not make the roster. In his most recent outing, he threw two terrific, perfect innings. He still throws 95. He has a slider. It just hasn’t translated well to the big leagues, though he was better last September. The other option, and the option that I’m projecting today, is going with a 13-man pitching staff. That isn’t ideal in the middle of the season much less at the beginning. No one wants that. Molitor and Ryan know that isn’t ideal. But, if they have any belief in Michael Tonkin, they won’t let him go for nothing. (Note – I also think that Terry Ryan may be trying to make a trade.) Catchers (2): Kurt Suzuki, John Ryan Murphy (likely sent down yet: John Hicks (40), Juan Centeno) Coming into spring training, it was pretty much a given that Suzuki would start and Murphy would be his backup. They added some quality AAA depth in John Hicks and Juan Centeno, a couple of 26-year-olds. 24-year-old Murphy has just two hits in 25 at-bats and has thrown out just one of six base stealers in camp. We all know that spring stats don’t mean much at all, and Murphy is someone they believe in. He needs to work with the big league pitchers. That said, you could argue that if Duffey, Berrios and Meyer are in the Rochester starting rotation, you could send him down for four to six weeks and have him work with those guys. If that were to happen, Hicks would be the Opening Day backup. I still expect John Ryan Murphy to back up Kurt Suzuki to start the season. Infielders (6): Joe Mauer, Byung Ho Park, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Nunez (sent down yet: James Beresford) These spots are pretty much already set. Beresford is still around, showing that he is likely in line for that Doug Bernier role that we’ve seen the last three years. If there is an opening for a backup infielder, I think Beresford is that guy. If there is an injury and they would need more of a starter (at SS or 2B), they would likely call up Jorge Polanco. Not a lot more to say with this group. These have all been givens throughout the spring, and also remember that Danny Santana can play three infield spots as well. Outfielders (4): Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia (sent down yet: Byron Buxton (40), Darin Mastroianni, Carlos Quentin) All- right, here is where things get interesting for Twins fans, and more so, for Twins pitchers. Byron Buxton came to camp given the opportunity to win the starting center field job. He missed a couple of games with illness and one due to rain. He has been good, as expected, in the outfield. He has had a couple of good offensive games. Most of the time, he’s had a couple of bad at-bats each game, and one or two OK (or even good) at-bats as well when getting three or four plate appearances. I am starting to wonder if Buxton could start the season in Rochester. As we have said above with Duffey, or as we see with the Kepler demotion, there has to be a fine line between wanting to have the players on the big league roster with doing what is best for the players and the team in the short term and long term. It might be ideal for him to go to Rochester for a month and lead off every game. Get him as many at-bats as possible. Right now, I feel like the odds of Buxton being on the Opening Day roster right around 50/50. If this is the outfield that they went with on Opening Day, there would be two possible outfield configurations lineups: 1.) Rosario (LF), Santana (CF), Sano (RF), or 2.) Arcia (LF), Rosario (CF), Sano (RF) Obviously Arcia would be able to play right field as well to give Sano a day off if needed. Santana can at least cover some ground in the corner spots as well. If Buxton is sent down, I don’t think it would be for very long. The Twins aren’t going to want to stay at 13 pitchers for very long. They want his defense and speed patrolling center field for the big league pitchers. I’d also add that I think if Terry Ryan could trade Michael Tonkin before Opening Day, then Buxton would be in the big leagues and the Twins would have 13 hitters and 12 pitchers. The Twins have just a few really tough decisions to make in the next seven days. I see there being 22 givens to be on the roster (pending injury, unexpected trade, etc.). That means three roster spots are up for grabs between these players: (Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Byron Buxton, John Ryan Murphy, John Hicks, maybe Ryan O'Rourke) YOUR TURN Let’s see your rosters for Opening Day and what you would do. View full article

This morning, the Twins optioned Max Kepler to AAA Rochester where he will play all three OF positions. Ryan Sweeney was released. From the Twins press release:

I don't know. That $250,000 signing bonus gave him some time. But it's possible that he was at a point where he wanted to see some results too and the Twins needed that too. It's hard to have a 26-year-old in Extended Spring Training. As for guys who will likely start the season on the DL, there are quite a few. Lewin Diaz (hip), Emmanuel Morel (hamstring), Joe Benson (back), Tyree Davis (forearm), Lewis Thorpe (still recovering from TJ), Cam Booser (still recovering from shoulder), Brusdar Graterol (recovering all year from TJ in August), Fernando Romero might start in EST for a couple more starts before moving forward (TJ). RHP Alex Muren is going to start on the DL, and right now they're evaluating the issue... I'll find out when they find out.

Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit!They were only a surprise if you weren't paying attention. They competed early, made big moves at the trade deadline and hung on for 86 wins and their first playoff appearance since 2005. They lose Scott Kazmir from the deadline, but Carlos Gomez is still on the team and they made some strategic bullpen signings. Image courtesy of Adam Hunger, USA Today Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! They were only a surprise if you weren't paying attention. They competed early, made big moves at the trade deadline and hung on for 86 wins and their first playoff appearance since 2005. They lose Scott Kazmir from the deadline, but Carlos Gomez is still on the team and they made some strategic bullpen signings. Vegas’ Line: 87.5 wins What The Line Is Saying "Last year was no fluke. This was a good team and should be even better this year." They’ll Beat Vegas If… …the team doesn't have one enormous sophomore slump. The team is young, there is still some talent coming and, for the most part, they proved to themselves that they can win. The next step is improving their 6-13 record last year against the rival Texas Rangers. If they do, watch out. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… Their starting pitching takes a big step backwards. Last year they led the AL in ERA, despite having just two pitchers, Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh, who had over 22 starts. The added Doug Fister this offseason to try to help with that, but he is coming off an injury-marred year. I’ll Bet The…. OVER Last year was impressive to those who follow team arcs, but this is the year the Astros are positioned to really impress the more casual fans. If they can get past their issues with the Rangers, the sky is the limit. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. View full article

Tom Kelly always said it took 1,500 at bats to know what you have in a player. I'm pretty OK waiting at least another 600-800, maybe even another 1,400 at bats to see what he can be. I'm sure the Twins pitching staff will be happy to have him in centerfield for that time.

How does a player overcome preconceived notions? Eduardo Escobar has found a way to overcome a industry’s preconceived notions that he was “only” a utility player. How? He earned it, two years in a row. So, how will he do in 2016 when he is the starting shortstop from Day 1? Eduardo Escobar came up with the White Sox late in 2011. In 2012, he was the team’s utility infielder until the August trade that sent him to the Twins as part of the Francisco Liriano trade. He was a utility man for the Twins to start 2013 as well. In 2014, he was a utility man until Pedro Florimon struggled, and Danny Santana became a center fielder. Once he took over as the everyday shortstop in early July, he was good. Over those 64 games, he hit .277 with a .723 OPS as a 25-year-old. Image courtesy of Steve Mitchell, USA Today How does a player overcome preconceived notions? Eduardo Escobar has found a way to overcome a industry’s preconceived notions that he was “only” a utility player. How? He earned it, two years in a row. So, how will he do in 2016 when he is the starting shortstop from Day 1? Eduardo Escobar came up with the White Sox late in 2011. In 2012, he was the team’s utility infielder until the August trade that sent him to the Twins as part of the Francisco Liriano trade. He was a utility man for the Twins to start 2013 as well. In 2014, he was a utility man until Pedro Florimon struggled, and Danny Santana became a center fielder. Once he took over as the everyday shortstop in early July, he was good. Over those 64 games, he hit .277 with a .723 OPS as a 25-year-old. However, to start the 2015 season, Paul Molitor decided to give Santana the starting shortstop job. He stuck with him for a long time. On August 1st, Escobar became the Twins everyday shortstop again. Over the last 56 games, he hit .286/.350/.524 (.874) with 18 doubles and eight home runs. In just two months. Finally, Escobar came to spring training this year knowing that he would be the Twins’ Opening Day shortstop. Last year, Escobar started 65 games at shortstop. He certainly helped the Twins rankings compared to other teams’ shortstops with those strong final two months. Twins shortstops were 11th in baseball with a .267 batting average. They were 14th in on-base percentage at .312. They rank seventh in slugging percentage at .411, and their .723 OPS was ninth in the big leagues. In large part due to Escobar, the Twins shortstops led MLB shortstops with 42 doubles and were third with seven triples. KEY NUMBERS 9.5 - In 2015, Escobar had 31 doubles four triples and 12 home runs in 446 plate appearances. That is 9.5 plate appearances per extra base hit (PA/XBH). Among all Twins hitters last year, Escobar’s 9.5 was second to only Miguel Sano’s 9.3 PA/XBH in his half-season debut. Going back to 2014, Escobar’s 10.8 PA/XBH was second only to the 10.4 XBH/PA by Trevor Plouffe among players with more than 430 plate appearances. No doubt, Escobar has been an extra base machine the last couple of seasons. PREDICTIONS Eduardo Escobar: 545 At-bats, .246/.295/.389 (.684), 33 doubles, 3 triples, 13 home runs. These are not the numbers that Escobar put up over the final two months of the season. They’re below league average, but almost right on MLB average for a shortstop. With those doubles and homers, if he plays solid defense, he should keep the job all year. (If you were wondering, that’s a prediction of 11.1 PA/XBH, slightly below where he was in 2014.) YOUR TURN Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Eduardo Escobar in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe View full article

John Sickels from Minor League Ball shared his comments from his prospect handbook on Jorge Polanco. He said it was basically a copy and paste from the previous year. He added a couple of paragraphs more. What do you think? http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/3/24/11293302/thoughts-on-twins-prospect-jorge-polanco

He's working with the Rochester team right now in spring training, but I would expect they'll send him to AA Chattanooga possibly.

Yup, people LOVE Joe Maddon, but when the Twins do something similar, it's bashed. A couple of very good examples here.

And, I would put the odds of him being a Twins in 2017 at about 75% as well.