Seth Stohs

My initial thought was that Park would play 1B with Vargas at DH, but since Kepler is still in camp, I could see Kepler getting the nod at 1B with Park staying at DH. That's if it was at the very start of the season. Either of those two would work.

Yup, so the difference really is 0.020 points of batting average which moves the OPS up by 0.040. I think that's about one single ever 3 weeks difference.

I like Dozier's (and Brunansky's) point about covering more of the plate, sometimes meaning just fouling off a tough pitch instead of striking out. Extending plate appearances will definitely help in the long-run.

That's a good point... one defensive option and one power bat option for the bench. And yeah, Mastroianni is definitely nothing to be excited about, but he is still in camp and doing well. We know what he is... defense and base running. Sweeney and Quentin didn't play in 2015 either. And, at least Mastroianni, unlike Bartlett, is actually a good outfielder. But I think the odds of it being anyone but Santana and Arcia are pretty low. At least to start the season.

I don't know if you were there "Bob" when Poulson threw in a spring minor league game last week, but I felt uncomfortable watching. I know he walked three guys. I know he hit Zander Wiel. I don't think the inning even finished. He was in the low-90s (according to someone who had seen the radar gun), but it looked like he was throwing harder than that, and he was up and in on hitters frequently. He actually looked a little like he was aiming the ball. I don't know when the right time is to "give up" on a player, but it was pretty clear that it wasn't going to happen with Poulson.

Yesterday, I posted my projections for the 2016 Minnesota Twins catchers, Kurt Suzuki and John Ryan Murphy. Today, we move to first base where Joe Mauer will again be the primary option. Byung Ho Park will also get some time at first base, though he’ll be the designated hitter most days. We’ll post his projections later. In his third season back from a concussion, what do we expect from Joe Mauer in 2016? Image courtesy of Jerome Miron, USA Today Yesterday, I posted my projections for the 2016 Minnesota Twins catchers, Kurt Suzuki and John Ryan Murphy. Today, we move to first base where Joe Mauer will again be the primary option. Byung Ho Park will also get some time at first base, though he’ll be the designated hitter most days. We’ll post his projections later. In his third season back from a concussion, what do we expect from Joe Mauer in 2016? In 2015, the Minnesota Twins first basemen were 14th in MLB in batting average (.265), 14th in on-base percentage (.334), 28th in slugging percentage (.392) and 25th in OPS (.726). While Joe Mauer played a career-high 158 games, it was the least productive offensive season of his career. On August 19th, 2013, Joe Mauer was hitting .324/.404/.476 (.880). He was on a 7-game hitting streak during which he had 14 hits and reached base 16 times. And that’s when he took the foul tips off the face mask and his season ended. It’s been clear ever since that things have not been clear for Mauer. That includes his vision which he admitted last month has been off at times. Not that the news was surprising, that’s ‘normal’ with a concussion, but it was the first time that Mauer had really acknowledged it publicly. Consider Justin Morneau’s concussion. It was midseason 2010 when he slid into second in Toronto and John McDonald’s knee impacted Morneau’s head. Morneau missed the rest of that season and half of the 2011 season when he posted a .618 OPS. In 2012, he hit .265 (.773 OPS). In 2013, he hit .259 (.734 OPS). Then he went to Colorado and won a batting title. In 2014, he hit .319 with an .860 OPS). In 2015, he was limited to just 49 games with another concussion, but he was hitting .310 at the time. Denard Span was hitting .294/.361/.385 when he had his concussion. After missing two months, he returned and went 2-35, dropping his numbers to .263/.331/.342. It took him two years to get back to “normal” but he has hit over .300 the last two years and his strikeout to walk ratio has been more like his pre-concussion days. Obviously those are two examples of players who came back strong three years after their concussions, but there is no magic formula when it comes to predicting anything about brain injuries. Mauer is now entering his 13th big league season with the Twins. He will turn 33 years old in a month. Ten of those seasons were as a potential Hall of Fame catcher, and the last two have been at first base. He is entering his third season after the concussion, so there is reason to believe that he can be better again in 2016. Or maybe that is me just being optimistic. With Byung Ho Park around, Mauer should be able to get a game or two a week at DH. We know that Mauer wants to play as often as possible, but 158 games from last year may have been too much. An occasional day off might be beneficial. Kennys Vargas is the backup option for first base and designated hitter. He’ll need to just play in Rochester and wait for an opportunity. KEY NUMBERS 1 - .394 and .338 - Mauer’s career on-base percentage dropped to .394 after his career-low .338 OBP in 2015. 2 - The place that he should hit in the Minnesota Twins lineup: There is no reason for Mauer to be hitting third in the lineup anymore. That said, the .338 on-base percentage was second to only Miguel Sano on the Twins roster in 2015. He is still an ideal top-of-the-order hitter because of his ability to get on base and take quality at bats. PROJECTIONS Joe Mauer: 557 At-bats, .294/.363/.426 (.789), 33 doubles, one triple, 13 home runs. I don’t think it’s fair to think that Mauer, at 33, will get back to what he was pre-concussion. He’s three years older and still has all those innings behind the plate on his legs. Also, offensive production across baseball has tumbled in the last few seasons. But, the further out from the concussion he is, the more likely he is to perform well. YOUR TURN Now it’s your turn. Share your thoughts on and projections on Joe Mauer in 2016. View full article

I would think all four of them are safe. TJ White has had an incredible spring.

Yup. Same guy.

I guess the only one that really surprised me was Kamran Young.

With split-squad games tomorrow, they won't do any more cuts until at least (and probably) Wednesday. Pretty sure Dozier, Quentin and Suzuki know what is supposed to be done with a runner on 3B and less than two outs. I wouldn't worry about it.

It was a difficult day on Monday in the Twins minor league clubhouse. Nine players were called into the office and told that the Twins organization was releasing them. This is happens every season, and with the strength of the Twins organization, there are some good baseball players who will be served their walking papers. Hopefully a few of these guys get an opportunity elsewhere. 1B - Bryan Haar - The 26-year-old 1B hit 14 homers in Cedar Rapids in 2014. Last year, he played 68 games in Ft. Myers before breaking his hand on a hit-by-pitch. He was hoping to make the Chattanooga roster this season. He was the Twins 34th round pick in 2012 out of the University of San Diego. 3B - Pat Kelly - The Red Wing, Minnesota, kid was the Twins 12th round pick in 2014 out of the University of Nebraska. Last year at Cedar Rapids, he hit .220/.278/.312 (.590) in 95 games. OF - Zack Larson - The 20th round pick in the 2012 draft out of high school in Bradenton, Larson hit well in 2013 in the GCL and Elizabethton. He got off to a fast start in Cedar Rapids in 2014, but a hamstring injury cost him most of the rest of the season. Last year in Cedar Rapids, he hit just .214/.291/.275 (.566) in 106 games. He is 22. OF - Marcus Knecht - The 25-year-old Toronto native was the 3rd round pick of the Blue Jays in 2010 out of Connors State College. With the Jays, he spent parts of 2012, 2013 and 2014 in the Florida State League (Dunedin). He was let go last spring and the Twins signed him. He played 101 games for the Miracle and his .226/.318/.318 (.636) for the Miracle and .171 (in just 10 games) in Chattanooga). OF - Kamran Young - The 23-year-old was the Twins 21st round pick in 2015 out of Cal State-Dominguez Hills. He went to Elizabethton where he hit .219/.301/.339 (.639) with four homers in 52 games. RHP - Jared Wilson - Wilson was the Twins 35th round pick in 2013, and then he signed with the Twins in 2013 when he was their 19th round pick. He had a solid 2014 season in the Cedar Rapids bullpen. In 2015, he was given the opportunity to start with the Kernels and was a first-half All Star. He ended the season in the bullpen. He also made one start for Ft. Myers last year. He turns 26 in late April. RH - Tyler Stirewalt - The Twins drafted him in the 21st round of the 2013 draft out of Fresno State where he went to play football. He had a strong arm, so he did some pitching. He threw 15.2 innings in the GCL in 2013 and then missed all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery. He returned last year to Elizabethton where he posted a 7.83 ERA in 23 innings. He is 25. RHP - Miguel Sanchez - The 21 year old from the Dominican pitched in the GCL last year for the third straight year. He went 3-2 with a 1.59 ERA in 39.2 innings (7 BB, 40 K). RHP - Brandon Poulson - It was a big, national story when the Twins signed Poulson as a 24-year-old, non-drafted free agent out of the Academy of Arts in San Francisco. He was seen the a Twins scout in a summer league throwing 100 mph. Unfortunately, despite a ton of work, he has not been able to hone his control at all. Last year, he went to the GCL and posted a 3.10 ERA in 20.1 innings (26 K). However, he walked 19. This spring it was clear that he still didn't have any control. It was a good signing as a diamond in the rough, a guy with that kind of velocity, but it just didn't work out. I've had the opportunity to get to know several of these individuals over the last couple of years (maybe even chat over a beverage with a couple of them). As I say often, there are a lot of really good people in this group, and I certainly wish them nothing but good things. I would think a couple of these guys might have an opportunity with another organization, or an independent league. With another 16-18 players needing to be sent from big league camp to minor league camp within the next week or so, it isn't going to get easier. There will be more releases, and more really difficult decisions to make.

Great stuff, NIck! I noticed this afternoon (And it surprised me) that Darin Mastroianni is hitting .300 this spring (though we all know that, by nature, all Spring Training stats are small sample). He also is the best defensively of the Quentin/Sweeney/Arcia/Mastroianni group. I'm not saying I'd be willing to lose Arcia for Mastroianni, but I think he should at least be in the same discussion.

https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/711961950805045249

Which is a classic, by the way! Ha!

Today we begin a new series here at Twins Daily in which we will attempt to project how the Twins projected Opening Day roster will perform in 2016. Each day over the next week, we’ll consider a position at a time. Today we start with the catchers. Image courtesy of Seth Stohs Today we begin a new series here at Twins Daily in which we will attempt to project how the Twins projected Opening Day roster will perform in 2016. Each day over the next week, we’ll consider a position at a time. Today we start with the catchers. In 2015, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst, if not the worst, performing catchers in baseball. Offensively, the Twins catchers combined to hit just .224 (24th best in baseball) and a .596 OPS (29th in baseball). Defensively, Twins catchers combined to throw out just 19% of would-be base stealers, worst in baseball. As I wrote last week, the Twins subtracted a couple of catchers and added three new catchers. THE CANDIDATES Kurt Suzuki (32) enters his tenth big league season. After an All-Star season in 2014 (or at least 2/3rds of a season), he struggled offensively and defensively in 2015. In 131 games, he hit .240/.296/.314 (.610). While defensive metrics show that he is below average, teammates (and especially pitchers) appreciate the leadership that he brings. John Ryan Murphy (24) came from the Yankees this offseason in exchange for Aaron Hicks. In 67 games last year with the Pinstripes, he hit .277/.327/.406 (.734) with nine doubles and three home runs. He has spent time as a backup the last three years, serving primarily as a backup. John Hicks (26) and Juan Centeno (26) will be at AAA. SITUATION Suzuki could certainly benefit from playing less than the 131 games he’s played each of the last two seasons. In theory it should make him more productive. Meanwhile, the still-very young Murphy should get more time. Suzuki starts the season as the starter and will likely get more playing time than Murphy early in the season. However I would expect that over time, Murphy will eat into that playing time and eventually get more than 50% of the time. Theoretically, it should create a better situation. As much as Suzuki wants to play a lot, having fresher legs should help him offensively and defensively. Conversely, Murphy can benefit from playing more regularly. He’s still young enough and inexperienced enough that we don’t know how he’ll handle the fuller workload. KEY NUMBER 485. The number of plate appearances that would trigger Kurt Suzuki’s 2017 vesting options for $6 million. As much as Suzuki is liked and respected in the Twins clubhouse, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Twins will let Suzuki approach that number. Even last year when he played in 131 games, he recorded just 479 plate appearances. PROJECTIONS Kurt Suzuki: 332 at-bats, .271/.320/.334 (.654), 15 doubles, two home runs. John Ryan Murphy: 353 at-bats, .280/.337/.407 (.744), 19 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs. YOUR TURN Now it’s your turn. Share your thoughts on and projections on the Twins catchers in 2016. View full article

And, Ironically, Ervin Santana's real first name is Johan... I know it's an old story, but for those that weren't aware, when he was coming up in the minor leagues and Johan was winning Cy Youngs, he wanted to avoid confusion.

Gonsalves worked on a slider this offseason. Still working on it. Should be great against left-handers. I like that it bounces sometime, keeping it down. That will be a big pitch for him. I hope people didn't expect Sano to be a finished product by opening day.

You're welcome for my... "sacrifice " Ha!

Perkins spent most of his offseason in Fort Myers working with the Twins training staff. Saw him twice. He looked good, ready.

I'm a big believerole in Luke Bard. Saw him twice down there and he looked good. Most important, he feels good and is healthy.

My stay in Ft. Myers is coming to an end with a Sunday morning flight back to Minnesota. Nick is here now, ready to report from Twins spring training. After spending the last eight or nine days around Hammond Stadium, talking to people, and asking questions, I felt the timing is right to do one more roster projection. The last one was done right before spring training started. There have been a few changes since then, but generally speaking, the Twins didn't have a lot of decisions this spring. Even now, there really are just a couple of decisions to make before Opening Day. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today My stay in Ft. Myers is coming to an end with a Sunday morning flight back to Minnesota. Nick is here now, ready to report from Twins spring training. After spending the last eight or nine days around Hammond Stadium, talking to people, and asking questions, I felt the timing is right to do one more roster projection. The last one was done right before spring training started. There have been a few changes since then, but generally speaking, the Twins didn't have a lot of decisions this spring. Even now, there really are just a couple of decisions to make before Opening Day. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Let’s start with the hitters and then get to the pitchers: HITTERS Catcher (2) - Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy - Barring injury, these two roster spots were never really in doubt. Suzuki will start the season as the team’s starter, and Murphy will be the backup. Depth: John Hicks is on the 40-man roster. He will head to Rochester as the Twins #3 catcher, ready when needed. Juan Centeno is not on the 40-man roster, but he has made a strong impression in spring training both with his offense and defense. Beyond that, Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver will both start in Chattanooga. First Base (1) - Joe Mauer - He’s the guy. His defense is solid, and hopefully his third season after his concussion will be a step forward again for him. Most important, let’s hope his eyesight and clarity is there. If so, he’s an ideal fit in the #2 spot in the lineup, able to get on base in front of Miguel Sano. Depth: Byung Ho Park will spell Mauer at first base from time to time. Kennys Vargas goes to AAA where he will play most every day and provide depth at first base and DH. Second Base (1) - Brian Dozier - No question here. Dozier earned his spot on the 2015 All-Star team and even homered in his one plate appearance. Dozier worked hard again in the offseason and obviously hopes to put together a full, consistent season. Depth: Jorge Polanco and James Beresford will both be at Rochester and both can play second base. Polanco has more pop in his bat while Beresford can provide singles and better defense. Both will likely move around the diamond more in 2016, making themselves more valuable. Third Base (1) - Trevor Plouffe - The Twins stood by Plouffe as their third baseman, and he hopes to return the favor with another strong season. He will hit in the middle of the lineup and wants to be a run producer. Defensively, he is quite solid. Depth: While manager Paul Molitor has said that Miguel Sano likely will not play third base this year, that obviously can change depending upon the situation. If Plouffe were to be out for an extended period of time, Sano could move back there. However, for days off and such, Eduardo Nunez will play there. Shortstop (1) - Eduardo Escobar - The last two seasons Escobar began the year as a utility guy. In the second half of each season, he played very well. Finally, he is getting the opportunity. He may not have great range but he makes the plays at shortstop. He has been a doubles machine as well. Depth - Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana can play shortstop and all around the infield. Ryan and Molitor would likely feel quite comfortable if they needed to go to Wilfredo Tovar. Jorge Polanco would likely get the first crack should Escobar be out for an extended time. Left Field (1) - Eddie Rosario - The outfield isn’t completely set, but Eddie Rosario will be in it. He has played some in center, but has been in left field the majority of the time. Pitchers can count on his defense, and he showed a strong, accurate arm. Some are worried about his offense as he does not walk and swings at most everything. But, the numbers he put up in 2015 were not out of line with what he has done in the past (unlike Danny Santana who put up numbers that were unrealistic for him). Center Field (1) - Byron Buxton - It’s really been clear all along, at least since Twins Fest that the Twins had every intention of Buxton being their Opening Day center fielder. In the majors last year he had not put up much offense, that still appears to be the case. They will likely let him struggle some with the bat and enjoy the defense he provides in center. Right Field (1) - Miguel Sano - We can agree or disagree with the offseason decision to put Sano out in right field, but it is what is going to happen. I’ve said all along that I think he’ll be just fine out there. There will be a few ugly moments in the transition, but that’s all right. Big picture is that his bat is in the lineup, in the middle of the lineup. Depth: Max Kepler will likely be the guy promoted to start at any of the three positions. Designated Hitter (1) - Byung Ho Park - Heading into spring training, how Park would transition to the big leagues was one of the biggest stories. Although we shall see what happens during the regular season, no one is wondering whether or not he’ll start the season in AAA anymore. Bench (4) - Backup Catcher, Eduardo Nunez, Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana - Santana can play six defensive positions and run well. Nunez can play three infield positions, two outfield positions and did all right as a pinch hitter last year too. Arcia is the question mark still and yet there isn’t an obvious choice ahead of him. If the Twins were to unload Arcia via trade, that might open up things for Ryan Sweeney or Darin Mastroianni who can play all three positions. There is a lot of talk right now about Carlos Quentin being a possibility if Arcia were out of the picture. However, he is really limited to first base and DH spots. He would be pretty strictly a bat off the bench, which wouldn’t be a bad thing. PITCHERS STARTING PITCHERS Starter 1/2/3 - Ervin Santana/Phil Hughes/Kyle Gibson - No change here. These are the top three. Starter 4 - Tommy Milone - Milone is often overlooked because he isn’t blessed with a big fastball. However he has put together a real solid career, and another solid spring training. I’m not saying that he is the #4 starter, but I feel like he has earned a spot in the rotation. Starter 5 - Tyler Duffey - I’m still going to say that Tyler Duffey will start the season in the rotation, but I’m not as certain about that as I was four weeks ago. He hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t impressed so much this spring. Then again, we know he is working on the change-up and incorporating that into his repertoire. But I don’t think it’s a 100% given at this point either. Depth: Trevor May was told earlier this week that he will be returning to the bullpen. On Friday, Jose Berrios was sent back to minor league. What was eight pitchers for five spots in now six pitchers for five rotation spots. Most Twins fans want to dismiss Ricky Nolasco as a rotation guy, but it might be a little early for that. He wasn’t good in his first outing, but he’s been all right since. His most recent start came on the minor league side and he looked quite good. If he’s got his curve ball breaking sharply and command of his fastball, he can be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. I still think that Duffey will be in the rotation and Nolasco will go to the bullpen, but it’s not as much of a certainty as many want to believe. Depth: Jose Berrios will be at Rochester to start the season. He’ll have to work out his command issues from this spring, but he should be ready sooner rather than later. Pat Dean will also be in the Rochester rotation. BULLPEN Closer (1) - Glen Perkins - No change. The three-time All-Star, who has closed out wins for the American League the last two seasons and then struggled in the second halves. His command is good this spring and his slider is breaking sharply, so he should return to all-star status. Right-Handed Relievers (5) - Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Ryan Pressly, Ricky Nolasco - Left-Handed Relievers (1) - Fernando Abad - Jepsen, May and Fien are givens, and Nolasco isn’t likely to be dealt. I think that Abad is a certainty to be added to the 40-man roster at someone’s expense. The elephant in the room for the Twins bullpen scenarios is Michael Tonkin. The right-hander is out of options. He has dominated in AAA, but he has struggled in the big leagues. And, he has struggled mightily this spring. At this point, he is no longer a given to be on the roster. If DFAd, it would be interesting to see if anyone claims him. Tonkin could get the opportunity solely due to the “Options” thing. However, Ryan Pressly has pitched well, and he was pitching well when his 2015 season came to an end due to injury last year, but it isn’t going to be an easy decision. Veteran Brandon Kintzler has had a solid spring. Taylor Rogers’ name keeps coming up over and over, so he’s definitely a possibility as a second lefty. So is Ryan O’Rourke who is in a way the incumbent and has had a solid spring. DEPTH - Depth comes from the names above that are sent to Rochester, but also the next wave is getting close. How many of the Nick Burdi, JT Chargois, Jake Reed, Alex Meyer, Mason Melotakis, Brandon Peterson and Corey Williams group will we see throughout 2016? So there you have my updated roster projection following a week in Ft. Myers. I don’t think there’s anything too surprising. There really are just a couple of jobs up for grabs. Let’s summarize: C - Kurt Suzuki 1B - Joe Mauer 2B - Brian Dozier 3B - Trevor Plouffe SS - Eduardo Escobar LF - Eddie Rosario CF - Byron Buxton RF - Miguel Sano DH - Byung Ho Park Bench - John Ryan Murphy, Eduardo Nunez, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia Starters - Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey Closer - Glen Perkins RH Relievers - Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Ryan Pressly, Ricky Nolasco LH Relievers - Fernando Abad That’s a solid 25-man roster, but what’s really exciting is the depth in the organization of players who are very nearly ready to contribute. View full article

Burdi is working with the AAA team. Chargois was optioned to Chattanooga.