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Article: The Case for (Jim) "Kitty" Kaat
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Correct. He was a strikeout pitcher for that era, but it's a different era in that he averaged just 6.7 K/9... that's not exactly "strikeout pitcher" in today's terms. -
Article: The Case for (Jim) "Kitty" Kaat
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Kaat's 1966 season is right up there with anyone, especially if you consider innings. Kaat wasn't dominating like Johan, and Mudcat and Jim Perry and Dean Chance all had nice years/stretches, but Kaat was very good for a very long time, so that's where my argument that he's the best Twins pitcher in their history comes from. Blyleven's number is retired and he's a HOFer now, but if you just look at Twins years, Kaat was better. People forget that Blyleven didn't strike out very many batters either. The game was different back then. -
Article: The Case for (Jim) "Kitty" Kaat
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
that is correct, it will happen in January. -
Article: The Case for (Jim) "Kitty" Kaat
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins should absolutely retire his number. I have no idea why they haven't. Very good point! -
Last Tuesday, Twins Daily had two articles touting the possible Hall of Fame credentials of outfielder Tony Oliva. The Baseball Hall of Fame announced that Oliva was one of ten players from the “Golden Era” on a special ballot that a 16-person Veteran’s Committee would vote on for induction. A second long-time Minnesota Twins player is also on that ballot and deserves consideration, Jim Kaat.Kaat signed with the Washington Senators as an 18-year-old in 1957. He made his big league debut late in the 1959 season as a 20-year-old. His first full season in the big leagues was 1961, when the Senators moved north and west to Minnesota and became the Twins. He pitched for the Twins until the 1972 season when the Twins brass thought he was done. In his time as a Minnesota Twins pitcher, he was one of the most respected pitchers in baseball. He struggled in his two brief stints with the Senators, but if you count those numbers into his Minnesota Twins numbers, he went 190-159 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. That accounts for an adjusted-ERA+ of 110, which is 10% better than average. He gave up just 0.8 HR/9. He walked just 2.1 per nine. His 5.6 K/9 rate sounds miniscule in today’s world, but at the time, it was above average. Remember, players in his era were embarrassed to strike out. He represented the Twins in two All-Star Games. “Kitty” was a big part of the 1965 World Series team. In that Series, he started three games, all three against Sandy Koufax. He did win game two of that series, but as we know, Koufax became legendary in that Series. He was named the 1966 American League Pitcher of the Year by The Sporting News. He went 25-13 with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP. The Cy Young Award was started in 1956, but the first time there were separate awards for each league was 1967. Names like Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale and Whitey Ford won MLB Cy Youngs before 1967. After being traded to the White Sox later in the 1973 season, he spent two more years there. He pitched great in 1975 and earned his third trip to the All-Star Game. He spent 1976 through 1979 with the Phillies. He was traded to the Yankees in 1979 and also pitched for them to start the 1980 season. 1979 was the first season in which he primarily pitched out of the bullpen. He was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals as a 40-year-old in 1980. He stayed with the Cardinals until he was released in July, 1983. His first World Series was with the Twins in 1965. His second World Series was in 1982, and this time he earned the ring. He pitched in four games for the Cardinals in the Series. Kaat was known for his defense. He won 16 Gold Gloves, which was a record until Greg Maddux won 18 of them in his Hall of Fame career. Kaat won the award each year from 1962 through 1973, and then 1974 through 1977. In his 25 years as a big leaguer, Kaat went 283-237 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He had an adjusted ERA+ of 108. He became more crafty as he aged, and his career strikeout rate was just 4.9 per nine. From 1961 through 1976 (16 seasons), he went over 200 innings 14 times and over 300 innings twice. He was on his way to 200+ innings again in 1972. He was 10-2 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 15 starts and 113.1 innings. Unfortunately, he had major elbow pain and didn’t pitch the rest of the season. Later, he would find out that the injury and pain he had at the time would now require Tommy John surgery. He didn’t have any surgery, but he did change several things to allow him to pitch, and he pitched for another decade. After retirement, he did join former teammate Pete Rose’s Cincinnati Reds coaching staff. Rose was so impressed by Kaat’s knowledge of pitching that he said if he was ever manager and Kaat was interested, he could be his pitching coach. He did have one twenty-game winner in his full season as pitching coach. However, Kaat has stayed in the game since then as an analyst of the game, and frankly, one of the best. He was a full time analyst somewhere from 1986 through 2006 when he allegedly retired. He was the Twins color analyst from 1988 through 1993. However, after some time off, he has called games in the World Baseball Classic, done work for MLB Network and more since then. In his time, he won seven NY Emmy’s for on-air sports coverage. We all know that “wins” are not a great indicator of great pitching. However, 283 wins means that he was very, very good for a very long time. He is one of just 29 men who played in four decades. There are 30 pitchers in baseball history with more wins than Kaat. Just five of them are not in the Hall of Fame. Bobby Matthews won 297 games between 1871 and 1888. Tony Mullane won 284 games between 1881 and 1894. Tommy John won 288 games between 1963 and 1989. Randy Johnson should get into the Hall of Fame this year on his first ballot, and Roger Clemens who should be in the Hall of Fame. In his 15 years on the ballot, Kaat never received more than 29.7% of the vote by the writers. In his excellent autobiography, Still Pitching, Kaat actually acknowledges that his was probably not a Hall of Fame career and he outlines some of the reasons. However, the Hall of Fame is also about character and integrity. There is also room for players who are great ambassadors of the game. Jim Kaat is certainly that. I once heard Kaat give a speech, probably four or five years ago. First, it was excellent. He told story after story after story of his days with the Twins. He had the crowd laughing and crying, and nodding their heads with memories. He spoke for 45 minutes, and not once did he use his notes. He has given to many charities and been a spokesman for baseball. He has represented the game very well for over 55 years now. When you combine his excellent playing career with his post-career baseball history, a strong case should be made in support of Kaat’s Hall of Fame candidacy. The Veteran’s Committee will be voting one week from today, December 8. Will Tony Oliva or Jim Kaat get the opportunity to call themselves Hall of Famers? I guess we’ll find out then. His long career speaks to the changes in the game. When he first came up, pitchers hit and starters threw 250 to 300 innings. By the time he retired, the DH era had begun and bullpens became much more important. It’s never a bad thing to take a look back at the great history of baseball and of the Minnesota Twins. Kaat is arguably (though there’s little question in my mind) the best pitcher in Twins history. It’s fun to look back, and for those of us who didn’t see him pitch, a reminder of how good he was. If you want to send a last-minute letter of support for Jim Kaat, you can do so by mailing a letter to the Veteran’s Committee at: Baseball Hall of Fame Attn: Golden Era Committee 25 Main Street Cooperstown, NY 13326 Click here to view the article
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Kaat signed with the Washington Senators as an 18-year-old in 1957. He made his big league debut late in the 1959 season as a 20-year-old. His first full season in the big leagues was 1961, when the Senators moved north and west to Minnesota and became the Twins. He pitched for the Twins until the 1972 season when the Twins brass thought he was done. In his time as a Minnesota Twins pitcher, he was one of the most respected pitchers in baseball. He struggled in his two brief stints with the Senators, but if you count those numbers into his Minnesota Twins numbers, he went 190-159 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. That accounts for an adjusted-ERA+ of 110, which is 10% better than average. He gave up just 0.8 HR/9. He walked just 2.1 per nine. His 5.6 K/9 rate sounds miniscule in today’s world, but at the time, it was above average. Remember, players in his era were embarrassed to strike out. He represented the Twins in two All-Star Games. “Kitty” was a big part of the 1965 World Series team. In that Series, he started three games, all three against Sandy Koufax. He did win game two of that series, but as we know, Koufax became legendary in that Series. He was named the 1966 American League Pitcher of the Year by The Sporting News. He went 25-13 with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP. The Cy Young Award was started in 1956, but the first time there were separate awards for each league was 1967. Names like Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale and Whitey Ford won MLB Cy Youngs before 1967. After being traded to the White Sox later in the 1973 season, he spent two more years there. He pitched great in 1975 and earned his third trip to the All-Star Game. He spent 1976 through 1979 with the Phillies. He was traded to the Yankees in 1979 and also pitched for them to start the 1980 season. 1979 was the first season in which he primarily pitched out of the bullpen. He was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals as a 40-year-old in 1980. He stayed with the Cardinals until he was released in July, 1983. His first World Series was with the Twins in 1965. His second World Series was in 1982, and this time he earned the ring. He pitched in four games for the Cardinals in the Series. Kaat was known for his defense. He won 16 Gold Gloves, which was a record until Greg Maddux won 18 of them in his Hall of Fame career. Kaat won the award each year from 1962 through 1973, and then 1974 through 1977. In his 25 years as a big leaguer, Kaat went 283-237 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He had an adjusted ERA+ of 108. He became more crafty as he aged, and his career strikeout rate was just 4.9 per nine. From 1961 through 1976 (16 seasons), he went over 200 innings 14 times and over 300 innings twice. He was on his way to 200+ innings again in 1972. He was 10-2 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 15 starts and 113.1 innings. Unfortunately, he had major elbow pain and didn’t pitch the rest of the season. Later, he would find out that the injury and pain he had at the time would now require Tommy John surgery. He didn’t have any surgery, but he did change several things to allow him to pitch, and he pitched for another decade. After retirement, he did join former teammate Pete Rose’s Cincinnati Reds coaching staff. Rose was so impressed by Kaat’s knowledge of pitching that he said if he was ever manager and Kaat was interested, he could be his pitching coach. He did have one twenty-game winner in his full season as pitching coach. However, Kaat has stayed in the game since then as an analyst of the game, and frankly, one of the best. He was a full time analyst somewhere from 1986 through 2006 when he allegedly retired. He was the Twins color analyst from 1988 through 1993. However, after some time off, he has called games in the World Baseball Classic, done work for MLB Network and more since then. In his time, he won seven NY Emmy’s for on-air sports coverage. We all know that “wins” are not a great indicator of great pitching. However, 283 wins means that he was very, very good for a very long time. He is one of just 29 men who played in four decades. There are 30 pitchers in baseball history with more wins than Kaat. Just five of them are not in the Hall of Fame. Bobby Matthews won 297 games between 1871 and 1888. Tony Mullane won 284 games between 1881 and 1894. Tommy John won 288 games between 1963 and 1989. Randy Johnson should get into the Hall of Fame this year on his first ballot, and Roger Clemens who should be in the Hall of Fame. In his 15 years on the ballot, Kaat never received more than 29.7% of the vote by the writers. In his excellent autobiography, Still Pitching, Kaat actually acknowledges that his was probably not a Hall of Fame career and he outlines some of the reasons. However, the Hall of Fame is also about character and integrity. There is also room for players who are great ambassadors of the game. Jim Kaat is certainly that. I once heard Kaat give a speech, probably four or five years ago. First, it was excellent. He told story after story after story of his days with the Twins. He had the crowd laughing and crying, and nodding their heads with memories. He spoke for 45 minutes, and not once did he use his notes. He has given to many charities and been a spokesman for baseball. He has represented the game very well for over 55 years now. When you combine his excellent playing career with his post-career baseball history, a strong case should be made in support of Kaat’s Hall of Fame candidacy. The Veteran’s Committee will be voting one week from today, December 8. Will Tony Oliva or Jim Kaat get the opportunity to call themselves Hall of Famers? I guess we’ll find out then. His long career speaks to the changes in the game. When he first came up, pitchers hit and starters threw 250 to 300 innings. By the time he retired, the DH era had begun and bullpens became much more important. It’s never a bad thing to take a look back at the great history of baseball and of the Minnesota Twins. Kaat is arguably (though there’s little question in my mind) the best pitcher in Twins history. It’s fun to look back, and for those of us who didn’t see him pitch, a reminder of how good he was. If you want to send a last-minute letter of support for Jim Kaat, you can do so by mailing a letter to the Veteran’s Committee at: Baseball Hall of Fame Attn: Golden Era Committee 25 Main Street Cooperstown, NY 13326
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Article: Arbitration: Who Stays, Who Goes?
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I definitely think that's the future role for Darnell. But what's $2 million to the Twins. It's nothing they'd get concerned about. Why lose a guy for nothing? I'd let Darnell start in Rochester and pitch in that lefty reliever role and get a few innings in. He can be called up if Duensing or Thielbar get hurt. He could be a long man. Hopefully the Twins would be able to trade Duensing at some point in June or July this year for anything, and then hand it over to Darnell. It's always nice to have a guy ready in Rochester. If you lose Duensing and hand the job to Darnell, then you've lost some depth. I'm not pretending Duensing isn't replaceable, he certainly is. I'd just rather try to get something from him while keeping depth.- 59 replies
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- eduardo nunez
- trevor plouffe
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(and 3 more)
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Article: Arbitration: Who Stays, Who Goes?
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They don't have contracts, but they're also under team control. The Twins could DFA them to make room on the 40 man roster, but if they don't, the Twins will likely sign them (to barely over league minimum) about the time spring training starts. What has to be determined tomorrow is the status of their arbitration-eligible players. Those three have too little MLB service time to qualify.- 59 replies
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- eduardo nunez
- trevor plouffe
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(and 3 more)
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Article: Arbitration: Who Stays, Who Goes?
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The more I think about it, the more I think all six remaining are tendered. The only one I am not pretty sure about is Nunez. Plouffe, Fien and Schafer would appear to be givens. I think Duensing is a given. His salary, even in his final year of arbitration is nothing to worry about at all. He's a guy who has done the job for quite awhile now. Not great, but very solid. No need to just give a guy like that away for nothing. Worst case in offering him arbitration, you can still get something for a 31 year old lefty. Nunez is the only one I'm on the fence on. Not that he's good defensively, but he can play 5 positions. Having a guy like that as a 2nd utility guy has value. And again, he won't make more than $1 million. Milone is more of a question for me than Duensing. He'll likely be more expensive than Duensing and there are more question marks about his potential role. He's a SP and I don't think he has the stuff to be a one-inning or LOOGY type. He has an option left, but his spot in the rotation is a question mark. He could be a non-tender option too. Those three are far from easy choices, though I think Duensing is a pretty easy choice to tender. The other two are much more difficult.- 59 replies
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- eduardo nunez
- trevor plouffe
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(and 3 more)
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Article: Who Says No? Trevor Plouffe Edition
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is my general thought on Free Agent signings when they are over 31... those contracts are typically on teh downside of their career at a pay rate for what they were capable of before they turned 31. The play lasts many times until about 33 which is why I do like the years that I have for both Plouffe and Dozier. -
We’re back for another round of Who Would Say No? After considering a potential long-term deal for 2B Brian Dozier yesterday, we’ll now consider the merits of a long-term contract for Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe. Look at his numbers and consider what you would do. Leave your comments in the forum.As Thanksgiving approaches, Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe has to be quite thankful. In the last week, two third baseman have signed contracts for at least $95 million. Kyle Seager got $100 million to buy out all three arbitration years and four years of free agency. Pablo Sandoval left the Giants for Beantown, and $95 million. Seager was coming off of a season in which he played in his first All-Star game. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this year. Sandoval was a free agent, having won three World Series rings in San Francisco and playing terrifically in this Fall Classic. Plouffe is in his second of four arbitration seasons and had a very solid season, his best yet. Below are two ways to look at and compare the numbers of the three third basemen, 2014 stats and a three-year (2012-14) glimpse. 2014 Statistical Comparison Trevor Plouffe (age 28) - .258/.328/.423 (.751), 110 OPS+, 40-2B, 14-HR, 80 RBIKyle Seager (age 26) - .268/.334/.454 (.788), 127 OPS+, 27-2B, 25-HR, 96 RBIPablo Sandoval (age 27) - .279/.324/.415 (.739), 111 OPS+, 26-2B, 16-HR, 73 RBISeager clearly had the best year, and Sandoval and Plouffe basically had the same year. Now let’s look at the three-year numbers for the three players:Trevor Plouffe – .249/.314/.422 (.736), 103 OPS+, 81-2B, 52-HR, 187 RBIKyle Seager – .262/.329/.434 (.764), 118 OPS+, 94-2B, 67-HR, 251 RBIPablo Sandoval – .280/.335/.424 (.759), 116 OPS+, 78-2B, 42-HR, 215 RBIAgain, the Kyle Seager contract isn’t looking so bad anymore, is it? Although he might be lesser-known in Seattle, he has been good for three years and was very good as a 26-year-old in 2014. Sandoval and Plouffe were very similar in 2014, but Sandoval certainly has more of a track record and more consistency in recent years. So, before anyone puts (or thinks I am putting) Trevor Plouffe in the same category as Sandoval and Seager, just don’t. He’s not that, though he’s not far behind. Third base is no longer the power position that it was five years ago. In fact, second base is more of an offensive position in the league now than third base, or at least it has more star-caliber players. However, the two third baseman being signed certainly makes relevant the question of whether the Twins should lock up Plouffe for an extended period. Of course, the proverbial elephant in the proverbial room comes in the form of Miguel Sano. One of baseball’s top prospects, the third baseman missed all of 2014 following Tommy John surgery. Sano will be up at some point, whether it’s in 2015 or early in 2016. I have little doubt that he can play third base. He has the quickness and has a very strong arm (even after Tommy John). The question is, would Trevor Plouffe or Miguel Sano switch positions? Which one would be better in left field at that time? Those are all questions for later, but when it comes to an extension for Plouffe, it does factor into the equation. So does the fact that statistically Trevor Plouffe turned into a very good defensive third baseman in 2014. So, if Trevor Plouffe were to put up just his 2014 numbers for the next few years, what could he make? Here are some estimates: 2015 (age 29): 2nd year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to about $4-5 million.2016 (age 30): 3rd year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to $8-10 million.2017 (age 31): 4th year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to $12-13 million.2018 (age 32): Free AgentThose estimates are again assuming that he just puts up similar numbers to what he did in 2014. Of course, if he continues to improve, those numbers could go up some. The other side is if he gets hurt or declines, he could be a trade or non-tender candidate. What happens if he moves to left field? Would that affect these numbers? That’s what makes these long-term contracts risky for both sides. This paragraph is the same as yesterday and obviously would go into every decision: I included the season and age just because those are likely part of the discussion and part of the equation and thought-process for such decisions as well. Other factors that come into play include the character of the player, some intangibles, and how will that player handle the security? That’s a big one. Will he sit back and quit working after signing the guaranteed contract, or will he use the security to really push himself to greatness? There’s no way to know, but those thoughts have to run through the collective mind of a front office. WHO WOULD SAY NO? So, what I’ve done is put together a contract offer for the Twins front office and for Trevor Plouffe and his agent to consider (hypothetically). My question today for the Twins Daily audience is, Who Says No? 2015: $5 million.2016: $8 million2017: $10 million2018: $12 million2019: $13 million option with a $1 million buyout.4 year, $36 million contract with a $13 million option to get through his age 33 season.So, the question is there for discussion… Who says No? Or do they both say Yes? Click here to view the article
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As Thanksgiving approaches, Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe has to be quite thankful. In the last week, two third baseman have signed contracts for at least $95 million. Kyle Seager got $100 million to buy out all three arbitration years and four years of free agency. Pablo Sandoval left the Giants for Beantown, and $95 million. Seager was coming off of a season in which he played in his first All-Star game. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this year. Sandoval was a free agent, having won three World Series rings in San Francisco and playing terrifically in this Fall Classic. Plouffe is in his second of four arbitration seasons and had a very solid season, his best yet. Below are two ways to look at and compare the numbers of the three third basemen, 2014 stats and a three-year (2012-14) glimpse. 2014 Statistical Comparison Trevor Plouffe (age 28) - .258/.328/.423 (.751), 110 OPS+, 40-2B, 14-HR, 80 RBI Kyle Seager (age 26) - .268/.334/.454 (.788), 127 OPS+, 27-2B, 25-HR, 96 RBI Pablo Sandoval (age 27) - .279/.324/.415 (.739), 111 OPS+, 26-2B, 16-HR, 73 RBI Seager clearly had the best year, and Sandoval and Plouffe basically had the same year. Now let’s look at the three-year numbers for the three players: Trevor Plouffe – .249/.314/.422 (.736), 103 OPS+, 81-2B, 52-HR, 187 RBI Kyle Seager – .262/.329/.434 (.764), 118 OPS+, 94-2B, 67-HR, 251 RBI Pablo Sandoval – .280/.335/.424 (.759), 116 OPS+, 78-2B, 42-HR, 215 RBI Again, the Kyle Seager contract isn’t looking so bad anymore, is it? Although he might be lesser-known in Seattle, he has been good for three years and was very good as a 26-year-old in 2014. Sandoval and Plouffe were very similar in 2014, but Sandoval certainly has more of a track record and more consistency in recent years. So, before anyone puts (or thinks I am putting) Trevor Plouffe in the same category as Sandoval and Seager, just don’t. He’s not that, though he’s not far behind. Third base is no longer the power position that it was five years ago. In fact, second base is more of an offensive position in the league now than third base, or at least it has more star-caliber players. However, the two third baseman being signed certainly makes relevant the question of whether the Twins should lock up Plouffe for an extended period. Of course, the proverbial elephant in the proverbial room comes in the form of Miguel Sano. One of baseball’s top prospects, the third baseman missed all of 2014 following Tommy John surgery. Sano will be up at some point, whether it’s in 2015 or early in 2016. I have little doubt that he can play third base. He has the quickness and has a very strong arm (even after Tommy John). The question is, would Trevor Plouffe or Miguel Sano switch positions? Which one would be better in left field at that time? Those are all questions for later, but when it comes to an extension for Plouffe, it does factor into the equation. So does the fact that statistically Trevor Plouffe turned into a very good defensive third baseman in 2014. So, if Trevor Plouffe were to put up just his 2014 numbers for the next few years, what could he make? Here are some estimates: 2015 (age 29): 2nd year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to about $4-5 million. 2016 (age 30): 3rd year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to $8-10 million. 2017 (age 31): 4th year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to $12-13 million. 2018 (age 32): Free Agent Those estimates are again assuming that he just puts up similar numbers to what he did in 2014. Of course, if he continues to improve, those numbers could go up some. The other side is if he gets hurt or declines, he could be a trade or non-tender candidate. What happens if he moves to left field? Would that affect these numbers? That’s what makes these long-term contracts risky for both sides. This paragraph is the same as yesterday and obviously would go into every decision: I included the season and age just because those are likely part of the discussion and part of the equation and thought-process for such decisions as well. Other factors that come into play include the character of the player, some intangibles, and how will that player handle the security? That’s a big one. Will he sit back and quit working after signing the guaranteed contract, or will he use the security to really push himself to greatness? There’s no way to know, but those thoughts have to run through the collective mind of a front office. WHO WOULD SAY NO? So, what I’ve done is put together a contract offer for the Twins front office and for Trevor Plouffe and his agent to consider (hypothetically). My question today for the Twins Daily audience is, Who Says No? 2015: $5 million. 2016: $8 million 2017: $10 million 2018: $12 million 2019: $13 million option with a $1 million buyout. 4 year, $36 million contract with a $13 million option to get through his age 33 season. So, the question is there for discussion… Who says No? Or do they both say Yes?
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Article: Who Says No? Brian Dozier Edition
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This discussion is great! Thank you! And, the two "sides" of the discussion are likely both right and expressing that concerns that each side would have. "Security" and "Cost Certainty" are the positives for both sides. "Maximize value" and "Overpay" are on the other side of the equation. I do have to wonder, when we heard rumors last spring training about a contract extension with Dozier, what those terms might have looked like. I'm guessing lower than what my proposal above is. If they wait another year and he has another similar year, he could be looking more at a Seager deal. The risk goes both ways, and I feel pretty good about where I put the numbers, but I'm loving this conversation. -
Big money is being spent around baseball. Players are signing long-term deals before free agency. There are are a couple of Twins players who would/could be looking to gain some financial security. In this series, I’ll review a Twins player, his numbers, his contract status and his earnings potential. I’ll put out a contract that I would consider fair and ask Twins Daily’s readers, “Who Says No?” We’ll start with Brian Dozier.Clearly there is some money to spend in baseball right now. National TV revenues are crazy, so the players should cash in. That said, teams still need to make sound business decisions. The Kyle Seager 7-year, $100 million contract got me thinking. He is arbitration eligible for the first time this year after making $540,000 in his final year of serfdom. So the Mariners are buying out the 2014 All-Star for three years of arbitration, plus four years of free agency. There is money to be spent, so should the Twins spend it? Brian Dozier had a very good 2014 season, his age-27 season. He hit .242/.345/.416 (.742) with 33 doubles, a triple, 23 home runs, 71 RBI and 112 runs scored. He also stole 21 bases. He also played very good defense at second base. If he is able to continue posting those types of numbers, he is going to start making a lot of money in 2016 when he is playing under his first year of arbitration. Understandably, he would want to work under some sort of guarantee, so a long-term contract might make a lot of sense for him. The Twins would certainly like to lock up a guy who they consider a quality player and a leader in the clubhouse. Of course, such a contract would have to make sense for both sides. So, if Dozier were to put up just the same numbers for the next four or five years, what would he make? Here are some estimates: 2015 (age 28): Not yet arbitration-eligible, Dozier will make between $550,000 and $600,000.2016 (age 29): 1st year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump up to about $5 million.2017 (age 30): 2nd year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump to about $8-10 million.2018 (age 31): 3rd year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump to $10-12 million.2019 (age 32): He would be a free agent.Those estimates are again assuming that he just puts up similar numbers to what he did in 2014. Of course, if he continues to improve, those numbers could go up a little. The other side that is if he gets hurt or declines, he could be a non-tender candidate in a couple of years. That’s what makes these long-term contracts risky for both sides. I included the season and age just because those are likely part of the discussion and part of the equation and thought process for such decisions as well. Other factors that come into play include the character of the player, some intangibles, and how will that player handle the security? That’s a big one. Will he sit back and quit working after signing the guaranteed contract, or will he use the security to really push himself to greatness? There’s no way to know, but those thoughts have to run through the collective mind of a front office. WHO WOULD SAY NO? So, what I’ve done is put together a contract offer for the Twins front office and for Brian Dozier and his agent to consider (hypothetically). My question today for the Twins Daily audience is, Who Says No? 2015: $1 million.2016: $5 million2017: $7 million2018: $9 million2019: $11 million2020: $12 million6 year, $45 million contract through his age 33 season.So, the question is there for discussion… Who says No? Or do they both say Yes? Click here to view the article
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Clearly there is some money to spend in baseball right now. National TV revenues are crazy, so the players should cash in. That said, teams still need to make sound business decisions. The Kyle Seager 7-year, $100 million contract got me thinking. He is arbitration eligible for the first time this year after making $540,000 in his final year of serfdom. So the Mariners are buying out the 2014 All-Star for three years of arbitration, plus four years of free agency. There is money to be spent, so should the Twins spend it? Brian Dozier had a very good 2014 season, his age-27 season. He hit .242/.345/.416 (.742) with 33 doubles, a triple, 23 home runs, 71 RBI and 112 runs scored. He also stole 21 bases. He also played very good defense at second base. If he is able to continue posting those types of numbers, he is going to start making a lot of money in 2016 when he is playing under his first year of arbitration. Understandably, he would want to work under some sort of guarantee, so a long-term contract might make a lot of sense for him. The Twins would certainly like to lock up a guy who they consider a quality player and a leader in the clubhouse. Of course, such a contract would have to make sense for both sides. So, if Dozier were to put up just the same numbers for the next four or five years, what would he make? Here are some estimates: 2015 (age 28): Not yet arbitration-eligible, Dozier will make between $550,000 and $600,000. 2016 (age 29): 1st year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump up to about $5 million. 2017 (age 30): 2nd year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump to about $8-10 million. 2018 (age 31): 3rd year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump to $10-12 million. 2019 (age 32): He would be a free agent. Those estimates are again assuming that he just puts up similar numbers to what he did in 2014. Of course, if he continues to improve, those numbers could go up a little. The other side that is if he gets hurt or declines, he could be a non-tender candidate in a couple of years. That’s what makes these long-term contracts risky for both sides. I included the season and age just because those are likely part of the discussion and part of the equation and thought process for such decisions as well. Other factors that come into play include the character of the player, some intangibles, and how will that player handle the security? That’s a big one. Will he sit back and quit working after signing the guaranteed contract, or will he use the security to really push himself to greatness? There’s no way to know, but those thoughts have to run through the collective mind of a front office. WHO WOULD SAY NO? So, what I’ve done is put together a contract offer for the Twins front office and for Brian Dozier and his agent to consider (hypothetically). My question today for the Twins Daily audience is, Who Says No? 2015: $1 million. 2016: $5 million 2017: $7 million 2018: $9 million 2019: $11 million 2020: $12 million 6 year, $45 million contract through his age 33 season. So, the question is there for discussion… Who says No? Or do they both say Yes?
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Article: The Case for Tony O
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For what it's worth, I agree with this sentence. Researching Oliva made me realize that he was one of the top 3-4 players in the American League for an 8-season run. I also always remembered hearing about his declining play after returning from the missed season. Well, he was still pretty good for three more years. -
Article: The Case for Tony O
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You make a great point. People worry so much about age for MLB Debut forgetting there are a lot of guys who don't get to the big leagues until they're 25 and still have really, really good careers. So the next time someone tells you that Brian Dozier was "old" when he was called up, remind them that 1.) he went to four years of college, 2.) he debuted less than 2 years after being drafted, 3.) he was 24 (turned 25 a couple weeks later), and 4.) Tony Oliva turned out just fine. -
Recently, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced the ten finalists who are on the Veteran’s Committee’s Golden Era Ballot. Three former Twins players are on the ballot, Luis Tiant, Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva. Today, I’m going to post several of the reasons that Oliva should be considered a Hall of Famer. At the end, I’ll let you know how you can help Oliva’s case.On December 8, the 16-person Veteran's Committii will vote on which of the ten players from the Golden Era should be elected. Like the Baseball Writer’s vote, to gain enshrinement in Cooperstown, a player will need 75% of the vote (or, 12 votes). Tony Oliva is a Twins legend. He is a member of the Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame and is one of the five best players in team history. However, he was not voted into the Hall of Fame after 15 years on the Baseball Writers’ ballot. In fact, he never accumulated more than 47.3% of the vote. However, thanks to the Hall of Fame’s addition of this Golden Era vote, Oliva has another chance. As Twins fans, we can certainly support one of ours being awarded the greatest honor a baseball player can receive. The Case For Oliva Players are to be considered or judged based on several criteria including record, ability, integrity, character, sportsmanship and contributions to the team. However, it all starts with record as a player since there are a lot of people of high character and integrity in the game. So, let’s start with his playing career. Oliva had cups of coffee with the Twins in 1962 and 1963. In 1964, he was the American League Rookie of the Year and won the league batting title when he hit .323. In 1965, he hit .321, becoming the only player in team history to win back-to-back batting titles. In 1966, he led the league in hits for the third straight year but his .307 batting average was second behind Frank Robinson. In 1971, he hit a career-high .337 for his third and final batting title. He led the league in hits five times, and four times he led the league in doubles. Three times he finished in the top five in MVP voting. Five times he finished in the top ten. All-Star appearances mean different things to different people these days, but the reason it was called The Golden Era is because so many of baseball’s elite players came from that era. To have been selected for eight straight All-Star games, from 1964 through 1971, tells us how great he was in the era. The Twins actually released Oliva in 1961 because he was so bad defensively in the outfield. However, he turned around his defense in right field enough to earn a Gold Glove Award in 1966. He was known to have had one of the strongest arms in baseball. Oliva’s peak was from 1964 through 1971 (ages 25-32). Unfortunately, he was able to play just ten games in 1972 because of his knees. I wanted to see where Oliva ranked during that eight year stretch compared to his contemporaries. His triple slash line for that time frame was .313/.360/.507 (.867). That is an adjusted-OPS+ of 140. In other words, he was 40% better than the average player for that stretch.His .313 batting average was tied with Pete Rose for fourth in MLB, behind Roberto Clemente (.334), Rico Carty (.322), and Matty Alou (.314). It was best in the American League, ahead of teammate and roommate Rod Carew’s .306 average.Because he was such an aggressive hitter, his on-base percentage ranks 31st from that time frame, but it is 13th in the American League.That said, he was third in the American League with 90 intentional walks. Only sluggers Harmon Killebrew and Frank Howard were intentionally walked more often in the AL. That is a sign of the respect opponents had for him.His slugging percentage is tied for 10th in MLB for that time frame. However, in the American League, only Frank Robinson, Harmon Killebrew and Frank Howard rank ahead of him.His OPS was 14th in baseball, sixth in the American League (top five – Frank Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Howard and Mickey Mantle).His 1,455 hits was behind only Rose (1,554), Lou Brock (1,552), Billy Williams (1,516) and Clemente (1,460). In the AL, Brooks Robinson’s 1,313 hits was second to Oliva.His 278 doubles was best in MLB from 1964-1971.His 46 triples ranked 12th in MLB and fourth in the American League.His 177 home runs ranked 15th in all of baseball and eighth in the AL.His 719 RBI was 13th overall behind 11 Hall of Famers (and just ahead of three more). That RBI total ranked fourth in the American League (leader was Harmon Killebrew).He was 10th in MLB with 711 runs scored, which ranked second in the American League.Many think that the knee injuries completely derailed his career. Sure, it slowed him down, but he was still pretty good. After playing in just ten games in 1972, Oliva became the Twins DH in 1973 and played in 374 games over the next three seasons. In those three years, he hit a combined .283/.338/.401 (.740). That may sound somewhat pedestrian, especially in comparison to those first eight full seasons. However, with an adjusted OPS+ of 109, he was still nine percent better than the average player. So, did he fade after the injuries, and after he turned 32? Sure, a little. He was still a very good player. Despite hobbling when he walked. Despite Rod Carew’s stories of Oliva crying himself to sleep at night in pain, or limping to get ice, he still continued to play at a very high level. That said, there will always be the question of What If... with Tony Oliva’s career. His career hitting line, from 1962-1975, is .304/.353/.476 (.830) which equates to an adjusted-OPS+ of 131. He accumulated 329 doubles, 48 triples, 220 home runs and 947 RBI. Post-Playing Career Oliva came to the United States from Cuba for an opportunity to play baseball and earn a living. However, he got married in South Dakota and has made Bloomington his home for 50 years. He has remained active in the organization. In fact, many may forget that he was that Twins first base coach in 1985 and their hitting coach from 1986 through 1991. I think most Twins fans would agree that was a pretty good stretch for the Twins. Since then, he has been a special adviser for the Twins. He has spent time in Ft. Myers as an instructor as well as going around to the minor league affiliates to do much of the same. He is very active in the community, often representing the Twins at events. Currently, he is an Analyst on the Twins Spanish Radio network and a minor league instructor. Seemingly all Twins fans have a good Oliva story. For me, the first one was in 2001 while in Cooperstown for Kirby Puckett and Dave Winfield’s Hall of Fame Induction weekend. Just walking through the streets of Cooperstown, Oliva was chatting with fans and taking pictures. I happened to be in a store when my brother got his picture taken with him. In the last fifteen years, Oliva has had many honors bestowed on him. His #6 was retired by the Twins. He was part of the inaugural Twins Hall of Fame class. He was also named to the Latino Baseball Hall of Fame. In 2011, the bronze statue of Oliva was dedicated outside of Gate 6 at Target Field. In short, he has been an ambassador of the game of baseball in the Upper Midwest for half of a century. His joy permeates a room when he is at the front sharing stories of his playing days, his Twins Caravan trips and more. He exudes integrity and character. What Can I Do? As we mentioned at the start, YOU can help Tony Oliva get votes. You can mail a letter to the Golden Era Veterans Committee about why you think Tony Oliva should be in the Hall of Fame. The best way to influence the voting committee is by sending letters in support of Tony. VoteTonyO is working to send over 13,000 pieces of mail from fans, but more is needed. There are two things you can do to help the effort: 1. Mail pre-stamped VoteTonyO postcards VoteTonyO has designed and printed 8,000 custom postcards that are pre-stamped and pre-addressed. All you have to do is write a short message on the back and mail them in. These postcards are available for fans at no cost. To request postcards, email , providing your mailing address and desired quantity (in increments of 25). 2. Mail your own letter If you have more to say to the Hall of Fame voters about why Tony should be inducted, mail a letter to: Baseball Hall of Fame Attn: Golden Era Committee 25 Main Street Cooperstown, NY 13326 Don’t forget to write “VoteTonyO” on the front and back of the envelope. The vote is on December 8th, so you will need to get your letter or postcard as soon as possible. Click here to view the article
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On December 8, the 16-person Veteran's Committii will vote on which of the ten players from the Golden Era should be elected. Like the Baseball Writer’s vote, to gain enshrinement in Cooperstown, a player will need 75% of the vote (or, 12 votes). Tony Oliva is a Twins legend. He is a member of the Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame and is one of the five best players in team history. However, he was not voted into the Hall of Fame after 15 years on the Baseball Writers’ ballot. In fact, he never accumulated more than 47.3% of the vote. However, thanks to the Hall of Fame’s addition of this Golden Era vote, Oliva has another chance. As Twins fans, we can certainly support one of ours being awarded the greatest honor a baseball player can receive. The Case For Oliva Players are to be considered or judged based on several criteria including record, ability, integrity, character, sportsmanship and contributions to the team. However, it all starts with record as a player since there are a lot of people of high character and integrity in the game. So, let’s start with his playing career. Oliva had cups of coffee with the Twins in 1962 and 1963. In 1964, he was the American League Rookie of the Year and won the league batting title when he hit .323. In 1965, he hit .321, becoming the only player in team history to win back-to-back batting titles. In 1966, he led the league in hits for the third straight year but his .307 batting average was second behind Frank Robinson. In 1971, he hit a career-high .337 for his third and final batting title. He led the league in hits five times, and four times he led the league in doubles. Three times he finished in the top five in MVP voting. Five times he finished in the top ten. All-Star appearances mean different things to different people these days, but the reason it was called The Golden Era is because so many of baseball’s elite players came from that era. To have been selected for eight straight All-Star games, from 1964 through 1971, tells us how great he was in the era. The Twins actually released Oliva in 1961 because he was so bad defensively in the outfield. However, he turned around his defense in right field enough to earn a Gold Glove Award in 1966. He was known to have had one of the strongest arms in baseball. Oliva’s peak was from 1964 through 1971 (ages 25-32). Unfortunately, he was able to play just ten games in 1972 because of his knees. I wanted to see where Oliva ranked during that eight year stretch compared to his contemporaries. His triple slash line for that time frame was .313/.360/.507 (.867). That is an adjusted-OPS+ of 140. In other words, he was 40% better than the average player for that stretch. His .313 batting average was tied with Pete Rose for fourth in MLB, behind Roberto Clemente (.334), Rico Carty (.322), and Matty Alou (.314). It was best in the American League, ahead of teammate and roommate Rod Carew’s .306 average. Because he was such an aggressive hitter, his on-base percentage ranks 31st from that time frame, but it is 13th in the American League. That said, he was third in the American League with 90 intentional walks. Only sluggers Harmon Killebrew and Frank Howard were intentionally walked more often in the AL. That is a sign of the respect opponents had for him. His slugging percentage is tied for 10th in MLB for that time frame. However, in the American League, only Frank Robinson, Harmon Killebrew and Frank Howard rank ahead of him. His OPS was 14th in baseball, sixth in the American League (top five – Frank Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Howard and Mickey Mantle). His 1,455 hits was behind only Rose (1,554), Lou Brock (1,552), Billy Williams (1,516) and Clemente (1,460). In the AL, Brooks Robinson’s 1,313 hits was second to Oliva. His 278 doubles was best in MLB from 1964-1971. His 46 triples ranked 12th in MLB and fourth in the American League. His 177 home runs ranked 15th in all of baseball and eighth in the AL. His 719 RBI was 13th overall behind 11 Hall of Famers (and just ahead of three more). That RBI total ranked fourth in the American League (leader was Harmon Killebrew). He was 10th in MLB with 711 runs scored, which ranked second in the American League. Many think that the knee injuries completely derailed his career. Sure, it slowed him down, but he was still pretty good. After playing in just ten games in 1972, Oliva became the Twins DH in 1973 and played in 374 games over the next three seasons. In those three years, he hit a combined .283/.338/.401 (.740). That may sound somewhat pedestrian, especially in comparison to those first eight full seasons. However, with an adjusted OPS+ of 109, he was still nine percent better than the average player. So, did he fade after the injuries, and after he turned 32? Sure, a little. He was still a very good player. Despite hobbling when he walked. Despite Rod Carew’s stories of Oliva crying himself to sleep at night in pain, or limping to get ice, he still continued to play at a very high level. That said, there will always be the question of What If... with Tony Oliva’s career. His career hitting line, from 1962-1975, is .304/.353/.476 (.830) which equates to an adjusted-OPS+ of 131. He accumulated 329 doubles, 48 triples, 220 home runs and 947 RBI. Post-Playing Career Oliva came to the United States from Cuba for an opportunity to play baseball and earn a living. However, he got married in South Dakota and has made Bloomington his home for 50 years. He has remained active in the organization. In fact, many may forget that he was that Twins first base coach in 1985 and their hitting coach from 1986 through 1991. I think most Twins fans would agree that was a pretty good stretch for the Twins. Since then, he has been a special adviser for the Twins. He has spent time in Ft. Myers as an instructor as well as going around to the minor league affiliates to do much of the same. He is very active in the community, often representing the Twins at events. Currently, he is an Analyst on the Twins Spanish Radio network and a minor league instructor. Seemingly all Twins fans have a good Oliva story. For me, the first one was in 2001 while in Cooperstown for Kirby Puckett and Dave Winfield’s Hall of Fame Induction weekend. Just walking through the streets of Cooperstown, Oliva was chatting with fans and taking pictures. I happened to be in a store when my brother got his picture taken with him. In the last fifteen years, Oliva has had many honors bestowed on him. His #6 was retired by the Twins. He was part of the inaugural Twins Hall of Fame class. He was also named to the Latino Baseball Hall of Fame. In 2011, the bronze statue of Oliva was dedicated outside of Gate 6 at Target Field. In short, he has been an ambassador of the game of baseball in the Upper Midwest for half of a century. His joy permeates a room when he is at the front sharing stories of his playing days, his Twins Caravan trips and more. He exudes integrity and character. What Can I Do? As we mentioned at the start, YOU can help Tony Oliva get votes. You can mail a letter to the Golden Era Veterans Committee about why you think Tony Oliva should be in the Hall of Fame. The best way to influence the voting committee is by sending letters in support of Tony. VoteTonyO is working to send over 13,000 pieces of mail from fans, but more is needed. There are two things you can do to help the effort: 1. Mail pre-stamped VoteTonyO postcards VoteTonyO has designed and printed 8,000 custom postcards that are pre-stamped and pre-addressed. All you have to do is write a short message on the back and mail them in. These postcards are available for fans at no cost. To request postcards, email , providing your mailing address and desired quantity (in increments of 25). 2. Mail your own letter If you have more to say to the Hall of Fame voters about why Tony should be inducted, mail a letter to: Baseball Hall of Fame Attn: Golden Era Committee 25 Main Street Cooperstown, NY 13326 Don’t forget to write “VoteTonyO” on the front and back of the envelope. The vote is on December 8th, so you will need to get your letter or postcard as soon as possible.
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Article: No Experience Necessary?
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm with you... It's like with the Torey Lovullo thing... was he a strong choice? Certainly, but is he better than Molitor for the Twins right now? I don't know. None of us does. I do know that Molitor is a strong choice too. As for the other coaches, I have zero problem with any of them. Were there other candidates? Of course. Is there some guy somewhere who might have been better? Probably, somewhere. But, these are all good choices.- 26 replies
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We only had about 15 minutes with him (and still took 20), so we didn't get too in-depth. You can listen to it too, to hear (even if the sound quality wasn't very good) for yourself.
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Article: No Experience Necessary?
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not sure... when they let Al Newman go, he went to somewhere (DBacks?) for a bit, I believe. Hard to really say that. When they let guys go 2-3 years ago, they were pretty much all ready to retire. Also, coaching is such a fraternity, so you will see guys picked for relationships as opposed to history.- 26 replies
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I don't know. It's been four years... I'm 100% OK with them looking to win more in 2015... I'm not saying Pena or Yang (if that were to happen) would turn things around... those are just international signings which I'm in favor of. Bring players in from all over the place is a good thing. Create competition, make everyone better... and start winning some games.
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Article: No Experience Necessary?
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree. I'm encouraged by this staff. It's exciting. Two more roles to fill, assuming the reports are true on Guardado and Allen, and I'm very curious how those two go. I definitely like the mix. Brunansky has earned the right to stick around. Allen has put in his time elsewhere. Hernandez has definitely put in his time. Glynn's background is so intriguing. Bullpen coach isn't one that I'm worried about any sort of history, so I like what Guardado can bring. First base coach is similar for me. Bench Coach is just going to be an assistant. I don't see any real background criteria for either of those two jobs. That said, it would be good to have someone who knows how to work with catchers. It may also be good to have an "infield" coach or an "outfield" coach. I don't know who they would be... It makes the return of Steinbach make a lot of sense.- 26 replies
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