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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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Article: A Look Back: The 2012 Draft
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
A couple of years ago they added 8 players after the season, but I'd have to check who was added in September. Maybe a couple that were added for September came off. Not sure. Buxton and Berrios, if they're deemed ready and needed before August will come up. They won't hesitate at that point. However, there's no reason (other than stuff like PR) to call them up in September. Those 10-14 games they may play (2-4 games for a pitcher) aren't worth it in the long run over potentially protecting someone else in the offseason. (In my opinion)- 45 replies
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Article: A Look Back: The 2012 Draft
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would say it would be rare for a team to have more than 1-2 players from their 2012 draft that will help them in 2015. This article isn't so much about 2015, but for years beyond. The college guys from the 2012 draft don't have to be added to the 40 man roster until after this year and can't become minor league free agents for like 4 more years. The high school guys drafted in 2012 don't have to be added until after next year.- 45 replies
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Article: A Look Back: The 2012 Draft
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think I wrote that somewhere in the article. I would say anyone at this stage of their career, just 2 1/2 years in, should get an Incomplete grade... That said, I like the potential of this group. I've done LOOK BACK articles at the drafts. It's fun to do.- 45 replies
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Article: A Look Back: The 2012 Draft
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I dont know why I typed "outfielder" for Fernandez. I recall telling myself as I was typing NOT to type outfielder, but I still did. Each year at Instructs, he plays in the OF and there is talk about him playing out there, but he really hasn't yet. I think when Jeremy and I talked about ranking the catching prospects in the organization, I had Fernandez fourth (behind Turner, Garver and Navarreto, but I like Fernandez a lot. He may have been in the mid-30s for me.).- 45 replies
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In 2012, the Minnesota Twins had an important draft. They had the #2 overall pick and six picks in the first 100 selections. At the time, they were coming off of their second straight 90-loss season and the farm system was not considered strong. They needed to add talent. There were certainly some dual strategies at work. Today we’ll look back at the Twins 2012 draft.After losing Michael Cuddyer to Colorado via free agency, the Twins acquired two additional draft picks, the Rockies' second round pick and a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. Jason Kubel also left as a free agent to the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Twins also got a supplemental pick for him. The MLB draft is incredibly difficult to judge or even analyze for more than a decade for various reasons. Top prospects don’t always make it big and there are hidden gems found in late rounds. However, when you have the opportunity to draft second overall in the draft, it is important to get it right. As Aaron Gleeman pointed out on this past week’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast, it’s important to get the early picks right, but even mid-to-late first round picks, much less picks in rounds two through forty, are mostly a crapshoot. HIGH-UPSIDE PREPSTERS The Twins have had a lot of success with athletic, toolsy high school hitters in the past. Torii Hunter (1993), Michael Cuddyer (1998), Joe Mauer (2001), Denard Span (2002) and Ben Revere (2007) are some examples of this. Byron Buxton certainly fits that model. His tools and athleticism are truly elite. When healthy (2013), he was the best player in minor league baseball and put himself on track to be in the big leagues as a 19-year-old. Unfortunately a smorgasbord of injuries cost him a lot of development time and delayed his big league debut. The Twins have had less success with drafting and developing high school pitchers. The most recent pitcher that the Twins drafted out of high school who made starts was Anthony Swarzak. Aside from Twins Hall of Famer Brad Radke, who the Twins took with their 8th round pick in 1991, others are few and far between. However, JO Berrios certainly displayed the potential and the work ethic to break that mold. He has a chance to be in the big leagues before he turns 22. DRAFTING COLLEGE RELIEVERS After that, however, we saw the Twins make another interesting shift in thinking. Five of their next six picks were college relievers. The Twins clearly focused on obtaining velocity through the draft. Although those five pitchers were relievers in college, the Twins made it clear that several of them would be given an opportunity to start. That makes sense. Starters have the opportunity to work 170 to 200 innings in a season whereas even the top relievers will likely top out at 70 innings in a season. Even if the pitcher does go back to the bullpen, the opportunity to start has other benefits. He can work on secondary pitches. However, as a starter, he will have to work out of many situations that he will see coming out of the bullpen. It’s just that he is able to go through those experiences in the 3rd or 4th inning rather than late in the game. That theory is sound, but there were certainly concerns with that strategy. One of them was an increased injury risk, whether real or perceived. Of course, that is going to be a concern with any pitcher. The thought was that a couple of these guys would get up to the big leagues and pitch out of the bullpen. The thinking was also be that if even one of them reached the big leagues as a starter, the strategy would be a success. So, two-and-a-half seasons into their professional career, how has this strategy worked out for the Twins? Here is a quick look at those five college pitchers: LUKE BARD – RHP – Georgia Tech With the 42nd overall pick (supplemental pick for losing Kubel), the Twins took the right-hander. The thought was that he would be given the opportunity to start. However, in 2012 and 2013, he worked a combined 19.1 innings in the minors and then missed the entire 2014 season. At the end of the 2013 season in Ft. Myers, observers pointed out that he stuff was absolutely filthy. However, while rehabbing from offseason surgery last spring, doctors found that he had a muscle completely detached in his shoulder area and there was debris in his shoulder joint. He had surgery in mid-May and will likely be out for 12 months. Bard is as classy as it gets and when healthy, has really good stuff. MASON MELOTAKIS – LHP – Northwestern State – Louisiana With the 63rd overall pick, the Twins took a hard-throwing left-hander. Mason Melotakis had been clocked in the upper-90s out of the bullpen in college. In 2012 and 2013, he spent most of his time as a starter. Very early in the 2014 season, he moved to the bullpen and it wasn’t long before he was promoted to AA. As a starter, he worked in the low-90s and worked on two additional pitches. Out of the bullpen, he was again throwing in the upper-90s and getting significantly more strikeouts. Unfortunately late in the season, he developed elbow pain and in August he had Tommy John surgery. He will likely miss most of the 2015 season. JT CHARGOIS – RHP – Rice University JT Chargois was a two-way player for Rice who was one of two closers on their roster. He was the pick the Twins acquired from the Rockies for Cuddyer. After signing with the Twins, he pitched 16 innings in 12 games at Elizabethton. He tried to rehab some elbow discomfort through much of the 2013 season before having late-season Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2014 season. However, he returned to the mound in the Instructional League and impressed everyone with a fastball that hit 99 mph. ZACK JONES – RHP – San Jose State The Twins used their third round pick on a hitter, but returned to the collegiate bullpen arms in the fourth round when they picked San Jose State reliever Zack Jones. His upper 90s fastball has been impressive. His first full season in the pros was spent in Ft. Myers in 2013. He pitched well while trying to work on his control and his slider. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League, but while there was shut down with a strange, cold sensation in his right hand fingers. A couple of months later, it was found that he had an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He required surgery and rest. While recovering, they found blood clots in his leg. He returned to Ft. Myers in May and started a rehab program. He returned to the mound and ended the regular season as the Miracle closer, leading a dominant bullpen that helped the team to their first Florida State League title. He returned to the Arizona Fall League where he struggled with control but didn’t allow a run. He is back at 100 percent and was throwing between 95 and 98 mph. TYLER DUFFEY – RHP – Rice University With their fifth round pick, the Twins took the other half of Rice’s closer share. Tyler Duffey was a hard-throwing reliever who, after signing, dominated at Elizabethton, walking two and striking out 27 in 19 innings. His first full season was split between Cedar Rapids (where he pitched the first seven innings of a no-hitter early in the season) and Ft. Myers. He made 18 starts before finishing the season in the bullpen. In 2014, he began with four starts in Ft. Myers before spending the majority of his season at New Britain. He finished the season with three starts in Rochester. He worked 149.2 innings. Recently, he was named as a non-roster Invitee to Twins big league spring training. A mid-90s fastball and two additional pitches and he is now considered a legit future big league starting pitcher. These five will have to be added to the Twins 40-man roster following the 2015 season or be made available in the Rule 5 draft in December. Duffey has been very good as a starter and has a chance to be a big league starter (or a successful reliever). The four other arms have all missed significant time due to injury and surgeries. These guys are all 24 years old and still have a good chance to get to the big leagues as relievers. They have big velocity and if things go well, they could still be late-inning, impact arms in the bullpen. Has the strategy proven wise? That’s to be determined. Time will tell. OTHER 2012 DRAFT PICKS Adam Brett Walker is a year younger than the above college arms. He’ll still be just 23 years old during the 2015 season. He has played at one level each year and been one of the most prolific power and production hitters in minor league baseball. He has led his league in home runs and RBI the last two years and has a total of 66 homers in his two-and-a-half seasons. Anyone who can hit 25 homers in the Florida State League is worth paying strong attention to. As has been discussed here a lot, he will need to make more contact, but he could have a big league future. He was the team’s third round pick, 97th overall. In the 17th round, the Twins drafted Dalton Hicks, a first baseman from Central Florida. The hulking left-handed hitter provides a lot of power and production. He spent all of 2014 in Ft. Myers. He led minor league baseball in RBI in 2013, barely topping Walker. MORE COLLEGE ARMS In the 10th round, they drafted DJ Baxendale out of Arkansas. He moved quickly up to Double-A after two months of his first full season as a pro, but he has struggled at Double-A, primarily just staying healthy. In the 11th round, the Twins took lefty Taylor Rogers from the University of Kentucky. He was my choice for Twins starting pitcher of the year in 2013 when he spent most of his season with the Miracle. Last year in New Britain, he started slowly but came on and pitched very well. He pitched a little bit--unfortunately he missed about a month after being hit in the arm by a line drive in his first start-- in the Arizona Fall League. Like Duffey, he received an invite to big league spring training. Alex Muren was the Twins 12th round pick out of Cal State-Northridge. He has quietly pitched really well and reached Ft. Myers in 2014. The right-hander is a groundball machine out of the bullpen. In the 35th round, the Twins drafted Jared Wilson, but he returned to UC-Santa Barbara for his senior year, but the Twins took him in the 19th round in 2013. He pitched in Cedar Rapids in 2014. HIGH SCHOOL BATS Byron Buxton signed for about $200,000 dollars below slot, so the Twins had a bit of money to spend on other picks. In the 20th round, the Twins selected Florida high school outfielder Zack Larson. They gave him about $200,000 to sign. He has hit well wherever he has been. Unfortunately, he missed three months of this past season because of a hamstring injury. In the seventh round, the Twins drafted Jorge Fernandez, an athletic outfielder out of Puerto Rico. He spent two years in the GCL and then posted an .802 OPS in Elizabethton last year. The Twins were able to sign 16th round pick Will Hurt away from a scholarship at Coastal Carolina. He went to the same high school as Ben Revere. His game is speed and defense. He hasn’t hit much in his three years in the rookie leagues but plays very good defense in the middle infield. There’s a quick look at the Twins 2012 draft. Incomplete would be the draft grade for each of the above players since they all remain in the organization. It’s very possible that anywhere from one to four of these guys will debut with the Twins in 2015. More likely, at least five of them will be added to the 40-man roster after the season if they aren’t already on it. Click here to view the article
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After losing Michael Cuddyer to Colorado via free agency, the Twins acquired two additional draft picks, the Rockies' second round pick and a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. Jason Kubel also left as a free agent to the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Twins also got a supplemental pick for him. The MLB draft is incredibly difficult to judge or even analyze for more than a decade for various reasons. Top prospects don’t always make it big and there are hidden gems found in late rounds. However, when you have the opportunity to draft second overall in the draft, it is important to get it right. As Aaron Gleeman pointed out on this past week’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast, it’s important to get the early picks right, but even mid-to-late first round picks, much less picks in rounds two through forty, are mostly a crapshoot. HIGH-UPSIDE PREPSTERS The Twins have had a lot of success with athletic, toolsy high school hitters in the past. Torii Hunter (1993), Michael Cuddyer (1998), Joe Mauer (2001), Denard Span (2002) and Ben Revere (2007) are some examples of this. Byron Buxton certainly fits that model. His tools and athleticism are truly elite. When healthy (2013), he was the best player in minor league baseball and put himself on track to be in the big leagues as a 19-year-old. Unfortunately a smorgasbord of injuries cost him a lot of development time and delayed his big league debut. The Twins have had less success with drafting and developing high school pitchers. The most recent pitcher that the Twins drafted out of high school who made starts was Anthony Swarzak. Aside from Twins Hall of Famer Brad Radke, who the Twins took with their 8th round pick in 1991, others are few and far between. However, JO Berrios certainly displayed the potential and the work ethic to break that mold. He has a chance to be in the big leagues before he turns 22. DRAFTING COLLEGE RELIEVERS After that, however, we saw the Twins make another interesting shift in thinking. Five of their next six picks were college relievers. The Twins clearly focused on obtaining velocity through the draft. Although those five pitchers were relievers in college, the Twins made it clear that several of them would be given an opportunity to start. That makes sense. Starters have the opportunity to work 170 to 200 innings in a season whereas even the top relievers will likely top out at 70 innings in a season. Even if the pitcher does go back to the bullpen, the opportunity to start has other benefits. He can work on secondary pitches. However, as a starter, he will have to work out of many situations that he will see coming out of the bullpen. It’s just that he is able to go through those experiences in the 3rd or 4th inning rather than late in the game. That theory is sound, but there were certainly concerns with that strategy. One of them was an increased injury risk, whether real or perceived. Of course, that is going to be a concern with any pitcher. The thought was that a couple of these guys would get up to the big leagues and pitch out of the bullpen. The thinking was also be that if even one of them reached the big leagues as a starter, the strategy would be a success. So, two-and-a-half seasons into their professional career, how has this strategy worked out for the Twins? Here is a quick look at those five college pitchers: LUKE BARD – RHP – Georgia Tech With the 42nd overall pick (supplemental pick for losing Kubel), the Twins took the right-hander. The thought was that he would be given the opportunity to start. However, in 2012 and 2013, he worked a combined 19.1 innings in the minors and then missed the entire 2014 season. At the end of the 2013 season in Ft. Myers, observers pointed out that he stuff was absolutely filthy. However, while rehabbing from offseason surgery last spring, doctors found that he had a muscle completely detached in his shoulder area and there was debris in his shoulder joint. He had surgery in mid-May and will likely be out for 12 months. Bard is as classy as it gets and when healthy, has really good stuff. MASON MELOTAKIS – LHP – Northwestern State – Louisiana With the 63rd overall pick, the Twins took a hard-throwing left-hander. Mason Melotakis had been clocked in the upper-90s out of the bullpen in college. In 2012 and 2013, he spent most of his time as a starter. Very early in the 2014 season, he moved to the bullpen and it wasn’t long before he was promoted to AA. As a starter, he worked in the low-90s and worked on two additional pitches. Out of the bullpen, he was again throwing in the upper-90s and getting significantly more strikeouts. Unfortunately late in the season, he developed elbow pain and in August he had Tommy John surgery. He will likely miss most of the 2015 season. JT CHARGOIS – RHP – Rice University JT Chargois was a two-way player for Rice who was one of two closers on their roster. He was the pick the Twins acquired from the Rockies for Cuddyer. After signing with the Twins, he pitched 16 innings in 12 games at Elizabethton. He tried to rehab some elbow discomfort through much of the 2013 season before having late-season Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2014 season. However, he returned to the mound in the Instructional League and impressed everyone with a fastball that hit 99 mph. ZACK JONES – RHP – San Jose State The Twins used their third round pick on a hitter, but returned to the collegiate bullpen arms in the fourth round when they picked San Jose State reliever Zack Jones. His upper 90s fastball has been impressive. His first full season in the pros was spent in Ft. Myers in 2013. He pitched well while trying to work on his control and his slider. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League, but while there was shut down with a strange, cold sensation in his right hand fingers. A couple of months later, it was found that he had an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He required surgery and rest. While recovering, they found blood clots in his leg. He returned to Ft. Myers in May and started a rehab program. He returned to the mound and ended the regular season as the Miracle closer, leading a dominant bullpen that helped the team to their first Florida State League title. He returned to the Arizona Fall League where he struggled with control but didn’t allow a run. He is back at 100 percent and was throwing between 95 and 98 mph. TYLER DUFFEY – RHP – Rice University With their fifth round pick, the Twins took the other half of Rice’s closer share. Tyler Duffey was a hard-throwing reliever who, after signing, dominated at Elizabethton, walking two and striking out 27 in 19 innings. His first full season was split between Cedar Rapids (where he pitched the first seven innings of a no-hitter early in the season) and Ft. Myers. He made 18 starts before finishing the season in the bullpen. In 2014, he began with four starts in Ft. Myers before spending the majority of his season at New Britain. He finished the season with three starts in Rochester. He worked 149.2 innings. Recently, he was named as a non-roster Invitee to Twins big league spring training. A mid-90s fastball and two additional pitches and he is now considered a legit future big league starting pitcher. These five will have to be added to the Twins 40-man roster following the 2015 season or be made available in the Rule 5 draft in December. Duffey has been very good as a starter and has a chance to be a big league starter (or a successful reliever). The four other arms have all missed significant time due to injury and surgeries. These guys are all 24 years old and still have a good chance to get to the big leagues as relievers. They have big velocity and if things go well, they could still be late-inning, impact arms in the bullpen. Has the strategy proven wise? That’s to be determined. Time will tell. OTHER 2012 DRAFT PICKS Adam Brett Walker is a year younger than the above college arms. He’ll still be just 23 years old during the 2015 season. He has played at one level each year and been one of the most prolific power and production hitters in minor league baseball. He has led his league in home runs and RBI the last two years and has a total of 66 homers in his two-and-a-half seasons. Anyone who can hit 25 homers in the Florida State League is worth paying strong attention to. As has been discussed here a lot, he will need to make more contact, but he could have a big league future. He was the team’s third round pick, 97th overall. In the 17th round, the Twins drafted Dalton Hicks, a first baseman from Central Florida. The hulking left-handed hitter provides a lot of power and production. He spent all of 2014 in Ft. Myers. He led minor league baseball in RBI in 2013, barely topping Walker. MORE COLLEGE ARMS In the 10th round, they drafted DJ Baxendale out of Arkansas. He moved quickly up to Double-A after two months of his first full season as a pro, but he has struggled at Double-A, primarily just staying healthy. In the 11th round, the Twins took lefty Taylor Rogers from the University of Kentucky. He was my choice for Twins starting pitcher of the year in 2013 when he spent most of his season with the Miracle. Last year in New Britain, he started slowly but came on and pitched very well. He pitched a little bit--unfortunately he missed about a month after being hit in the arm by a line drive in his first start-- in the Arizona Fall League. Like Duffey, he received an invite to big league spring training. Alex Muren was the Twins 12th round pick out of Cal State-Northridge. He has quietly pitched really well and reached Ft. Myers in 2014. The right-hander is a groundball machine out of the bullpen. In the 35th round, the Twins drafted Jared Wilson, but he returned to UC-Santa Barbara for his senior year, but the Twins took him in the 19th round in 2013. He pitched in Cedar Rapids in 2014. HIGH SCHOOL BATS Byron Buxton signed for about $200,000 dollars below slot, so the Twins had a bit of money to spend on other picks. In the 20th round, the Twins selected Florida high school outfielder Zack Larson. They gave him about $200,000 to sign. He has hit well wherever he has been. Unfortunately, he missed three months of this past season because of a hamstring injury. In the seventh round, the Twins drafted Jorge Fernandez, an athletic outfielder out of Puerto Rico. He spent two years in the GCL and then posted an .802 OPS in Elizabethton last year. The Twins were able to sign 16th round pick Will Hurt away from a scholarship at Coastal Carolina. He went to the same high school as Ben Revere. His game is speed and defense. He hasn’t hit much in his three years in the rookie leagues but plays very good defense in the middle infield. There’s a quick look at the Twins 2012 draft. Incomplete would be the draft grade for each of the above players since they all remain in the organization. It’s very possible that anywhere from one to four of these guys will debut with the Twins in 2015. More likely, at least five of them will be added to the 40-man roster after the season if they aren’t already on it.
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Article: No Juice Podcast #38: Marney Gellner
Seth Stohs replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I really enjoyed hearing the conversation with Marney... and her kids were great! But I think she did a great job of explaining her job and what isn't her job... It was fun, but I think people should listen to it because I don't think everyone knows what he job is and, more important, isn't. -
Interesting discussion on what Mauer would get if he was a free agent. We discussed it here in November. I said 3/$45... I think Aaron threw out 4/$44. I don't know if John gave any sort of number, but said he was surprised at Aaron's 4/$44. Since our forum in November, Butler and Markakis signed, giving more data points. I feel good about my 3/$45 number, though I think 4/$56-60 might be likely too.
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On Tuesday around Major League Baseball salary arbitration cases will be filed. On Friday, teams and players will exchange numbers. However, don’t be surprised if many of the arbitration-eligible players agree to terms before Friday. Six Twins players were offered arbitration last month, so here is a quick look at what to expect over the next few days.When it comes to arbitration, there are ways to guess and predict where the values will come in. It is based on career numbers to that point, but there can also be some attention placed on most recent performance. It will be interesting to see if baseball's increased revenues will have any impact on the arbitration decisions. Will players get a 10% bump over historical data just because of the revenues? When we hear that the team and the player file arbitration numbers, a lot of thought and statistical analysis goes into those numbers. The team can’t just lowball the player because it makes reaching an agreement less likely, and it makes it more likely that an arbiter would rule for the player. The same goes the other way. A player can’t just put a $10 million filing number out there if he’s likely worth $2 million because there’s no way the judge would rule for the player. It’s a tough slope. Here are my thoughts or projections for the week. Get your predictions into the comments section below and we'll see what happens over the next four days. TREVOR PLOUFFE – 2nd Year of Arbitration The third baseman had a very good 2014 season. He made $2.35 million in his first year of arbitration and should nearly double that amount. Should it get to Friday, I would expect Plouffe to ask for around $5.2 million while the Twins would likely counter around $4.5 million. In the end, the midpoint would be about $4.85 million. Plouffe could be a candidate for an extension, either four or five years, or maybe a shorter-term deal like two years. BRIAN DUENSING – 3rd Year of Arbitration Duensing is in his third and final year of arbitration. He received $2 million in 2014. I think that the Twins will offer him a raise to around $2.3 million while Duensing’s representation will likely counter with a number around $2.9 million. In the end, I can see them settling near the midpoint at about $2.6 million. JORDAN SCHAFER – 2nd Year of Arbitration A year ago, the Braves paid Schafer $1.09 million to be an extra outfielder on their roster. He rarely played more than just as a pinch runner and didn’t hit in his limited opportunity. After the Twins traded Sam Fuld and Schafer was DFA'd by the Braves, it only made sense for the Twins to give an opportunity to the former top prospect. He played well the final couple of months for the Twins. He will likely get a small raise. I think his representatives will ask for $1.6 million. I can see the Twins offering $1.2 million. I can see the two sides getting creative. I can see them agreeing to a deal for about $1.3 million with several incentives based on playing time. In other words, if he ends up being the starter, he could make up to $200K more. If not, the midpoint is at $1.4 million. TOMMY MILONE – 1st Year of Arbitration Milone presents an interesting case. A look at his statistics say that he should make some serious money. Had he been in the A’s rotation all season, he could be looking at a $4 million payday. But instead, the A’s demoted him, warranted or not, and when he was traded to the Twins for Fuld, he remained in the minors for about a week. Once with the Twins, he was hurt and didn’t get a chance to increase his value. It’s also interesting because his 2015 role is uncertain. He could be the fifth starter. He could be a long reliever. He still has an option remaining. This is another situation where there could be some creativity. I can see Milone’s side filing a $3 million number while the Twins should file closer to $2.2 million. That puts the midpoint at $2.6 million. Could they reach an agreement for about $2.4 million with incentives for $200K for each ten-start interval? CASEY FIEN – 1st Year of Arbitration Fien had a fine 2014 season. He was one of the better set-up men until a rough September which made his numbers look not as impressive. He achieved Super-2 status this year so he could have four years of arbitration. There are a lot of relief pitchers each year who reach arbitration every year and the range of their contracts is all over the board, so it’s difficult to guess where he could fall in. I think that the high end would be about $2.2 million, so I would think that the Fien side would ask for about that amount. The Twins should counter north of $1.6 million because if it does go to arbitration, it’d be hard to imagine an arbiter siding with a number less than that. I think that the Twins would counter around $1.8 million. At the end of the day, the midpoint is $2 million and that feels about right. EDUARDO NUNEZ – 1st Year of Arbitration There are always several utility infielders who get to arbitration for the first time each year. The range for first year arbitration utility infielders is anywhere from about $750K to $1.4 million. I think that the Nunez camp will likely ask for around $1.2 million. I could see the Twins countering at about $800K. I think there could be an agreement just shy of the $1 million mark. As you can see, there is a range for where these six arbitration figures can put the Twins payroll. Be sure to check out Jeremy Nygaard’s Rosters & Payroll to keep updated on the Twins payroll. Click here to view the article
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When it comes to arbitration, there are ways to guess and predict where the values will come in. It is based on career numbers to that point, but there can also be some attention placed on most recent performance. It will be interesting to see if baseball's increased revenues will have any impact on the arbitration decisions. Will players get a 10% bump over historical data just because of the revenues? When we hear that the team and the player file arbitration numbers, a lot of thought and statistical analysis goes into those numbers. The team can’t just lowball the player because it makes reaching an agreement less likely, and it makes it more likely that an arbiter would rule for the player. The same goes the other way. A player can’t just put a $10 million filing number out there if he’s likely worth $2 million because there’s no way the judge would rule for the player. It’s a tough slope. Here are my thoughts or projections for the week. Get your predictions into the comments section below and we'll see what happens over the next four days. TREVOR PLOUFFE – 2nd Year of Arbitration The third baseman had a very good 2014 season. He made $2.35 million in his first year of arbitration and should nearly double that amount. Should it get to Friday, I would expect Plouffe to ask for around $5.2 million while the Twins would likely counter around $4.5 million. In the end, the midpoint would be about $4.85 million. Plouffe could be a candidate for an extension, either four or five years, or maybe a shorter-term deal like two years. BRIAN DUENSING – 3rd Year of Arbitration Duensing is in his third and final year of arbitration. He received $2 million in 2014. I think that the Twins will offer him a raise to around $2.3 million while Duensing’s representation will likely counter with a number around $2.9 million. In the end, I can see them settling near the midpoint at about $2.6 million. JORDAN SCHAFER – 2nd Year of Arbitration A year ago, the Braves paid Schafer $1.09 million to be an extra outfielder on their roster. He rarely played more than just as a pinch runner and didn’t hit in his limited opportunity. After the Twins traded Sam Fuld and Schafer was DFA'd by the Braves, it only made sense for the Twins to give an opportunity to the former top prospect. He played well the final couple of months for the Twins. He will likely get a small raise. I think his representatives will ask for $1.6 million. I can see the Twins offering $1.2 million. I can see the two sides getting creative. I can see them agreeing to a deal for about $1.3 million with several incentives based on playing time. In other words, if he ends up being the starter, he could make up to $200K more. If not, the midpoint is at $1.4 million. TOMMY MILONE – 1st Year of Arbitration Milone presents an interesting case. A look at his statistics say that he should make some serious money. Had he been in the A’s rotation all season, he could be looking at a $4 million payday. But instead, the A’s demoted him, warranted or not, and when he was traded to the Twins for Fuld, he remained in the minors for about a week. Once with the Twins, he was hurt and didn’t get a chance to increase his value. It’s also interesting because his 2015 role is uncertain. He could be the fifth starter. He could be a long reliever. He still has an option remaining. This is another situation where there could be some creativity. I can see Milone’s side filing a $3 million number while the Twins should file closer to $2.2 million. That puts the midpoint at $2.6 million. Could they reach an agreement for about $2.4 million with incentives for $200K for each ten-start interval? CASEY FIEN – 1st Year of Arbitration Fien had a fine 2014 season. He was one of the better set-up men until a rough September which made his numbers look not as impressive. He achieved Super-2 status this year so he could have four years of arbitration. There are a lot of relief pitchers each year who reach arbitration every year and the range of their contracts is all over the board, so it’s difficult to guess where he could fall in. I think that the high end would be about $2.2 million, so I would think that the Fien side would ask for about that amount. The Twins should counter north of $1.6 million because if it does go to arbitration, it’d be hard to imagine an arbiter siding with a number less than that. I think that the Twins would counter around $1.8 million. At the end of the day, the midpoint is $2 million and that feels about right. EDUARDO NUNEZ – 1st Year of Arbitration There are always several utility infielders who get to arbitration for the first time each year. The range for first year arbitration utility infielders is anywhere from about $750K to $1.4 million. I think that the Nunez camp will likely ask for around $1.2 million. I could see the Twins countering at about $800K. I think there could be an agreement just shy of the $1 million mark. As you can see, there is a range for where these six arbitration figures can put the Twins payroll. Be sure to check out Jeremy Nygaard’s Rosters & Payroll to keep updated on the Twins payroll.
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Article: Last Chance for Winter Meltdown Tickets
Seth Stohs replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm a 7 hour drive from there... I'll be there! -
Article: A New Metric for Shortstop Fielding
Seth Stohs replied to Thrylos's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Correct, old nurse. Consider that if the shortstop fields the ball and makes the throw to 2B, the throw is much shorter, many times even underhand. If he gets the put out, it means he had to catch the ball and throw it to first, not having to field it at all. As you've said, the other key is that someone has to be on base and the pitcher coaxes a ground ball.- 18 replies
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Article: The Rise Of Ryan O'Rourke
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Fien, Stauffer, Achter... I think Darnell has good stuff for a lefty bullpen guy. I think he can be solid for some time. I'd like to see him pitch out of that role for Rochester for a couple of months. He and O'Rourke and Thompson could provide some quality lefty work for the Red Wings. -
2015 Twins offseason top 40 prospects list: 1-5
Seth Stohs commented on Thrylos's blog entry in Thrylos' Blog - select Tenth Inning Stretch posts
Good list for discussion creation... -
Article: Rocking The Boat?
Seth Stohs replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's just a weird story... Players should handle benchings better. Sano handled his perfectly. He didn't get a manager fired. We don't know the whole story and maybe there's been a lot going on that led up to this... but firing a manager who did have a very good big league career as the playoffs are starting... something's strange. There's more to this story, for sure. -
This article was originally posted in January. Ryan O'Rourke had just found out that he had been invited to big league spring training. Tonight, O'Rourke learned that he is heading to the big leagues, replacing lefty Aaron Thompson who was optioned. ----------------- When Merrimack College beat the University of Minnesota’s Men’s Hockey team in the Mariucci Classic a week ago, one member of the Twins organization was very happy. Ryan O’Rourke is a proud Merrimack alum. Recently, the left-handed reliever was invited to big league camp with the Twins. He is trying to meet a goal that many may have seen as unlikely just three years ago.The Minnesota Twins used their 13th round pick of the 2010 draft to select O’Rourke, a four-year senior from Merrimack College. In high school, O’Rourke was a three sport athlete. He played football, hockey and baseball. He thinks that it is important for kids today to be involved in more than one sport. “I think playing more than one sport is crucial. All the kids that I talk to, or parents that ask me to talk to their kids, I tell them to go out there and find as many things as you can possibly do athletically and try to excel in them. Work as hard as you can because the stuff that translates to the mound is great, not just physically, but mentally. It’s great.” Though he skated with the Merrimack hockey team in college, he didn’t play on the team. However, he had a role in his years in high school hockey. “I kind of had to be the guy who checked a lot of people. I’ve taken that bulldog mentality, and I try to bring it to the mound. At this point in my career, I’m coming out there for one or two innings, so I need to bring my all for that point and time. All the sports I’ve played tell me that I need to come with everything I’ve got. I try to take that to the baseball mound as well. ” O’Rourke began his professional career splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. After a solid 2011 season in Beloit, he returned to the Snappers roster to start the 2012 season. Through mid-July, he was struggling with a 5.59 ERA in 29 appearances. Already 24, he could not help but wonder about his future in baseball. “Without a doubt, there’s a thought that creeps into everyone’s head. You could be the best or the worst player in the world, but there’s a point where that thought always creeps into your head. I did think about it. Am I out of my league? Is this too far above me?” Fortunately, O’Rourke had some supporters. “I had a few conversations with coaches and staff and the front office. They told me that they believed in me, that the numbers were kind of a fluke. I believed them. I think the confidence that they gave me really propelled me to the next year, 2013, and this year, 2014. Just knowing that someone is there in your corner, I think that really helps. Confidence is probably the most important thing that you can have on the mound. There can be days when your stuff is not there, but if mentally you think that you’re the top of the hill that day, then you’ll probably have a good day. Yeah, there was a time back then where I didn’t think I was very good. That’s always there. You just kind of have to kick that aside and focus on what you can control.” In Beloit, Jon and Erin Pingel decided that, for the first time, they would be willing to be a host family for members of the Beloit Snappers. They, along with their two young children, were fortunate to be able to host O’Rourke. According to Erin, “We were very excited those two stayed with us. We had met them the year before, and we really liked that Ryan picked AJ (Achter) to room with him.” O’Rourke is a very competitive pitcher on the mound, but what about off the field? According to Ping, “He was fun, just one of the kids. They played their games, and then they came home and played with the kids in the backyard.” O’Rourke made some adjustments and figured some things out the last two seasons. In 2013, left-handed batters hit just .173/.214/.250 (464) against him. Those are tremendous numbers. In 2014, the southpaw limited lefties to a .114/.162/.129 (.291) stat line. “I really can’t explain it. I don’t know if I attack them differently. I throw fastballs and sliders to lefties and righties, so it’s not like my pitches are different. Obviously my pitches are coming from different angles, one is seeing it break in and the other is seeing it break away. I’ve even asked lefties on my team to step in against me, and they just say it’s a really sharp breaking ball. I don’t know what it is I do. I just go out there. I’m just going to keep going out there and doing what I know how to do and what I’m blessed to do. I’m not really trying to change up anything at this point.” With that kind of success against left-handed batters, that sounds like a good plan. That said, he knows that he is not yet a finished product. He said, “I need to refine some things, yes, but with the success I’ve had against lefties, I’m just going to try to build on that. Work on whatever I was weak at and build my strength. You may be asking yourself, “Did Ryan O’Rourke cut down on the number of pitches he throws now that he’s pitching solely out of the bullpen? What is his strategy on the mound?" “I throw the same bag of tricks I had as a starter now as a reliever. I’ve thrown a couple of change-ups this year to righties and lefties. I’ve thrown a lot of curveballs to lefties and righties. I throw a ton of two-seamers to lefties and righties. I don’t know what it looks like to them. In my head, I try to speed up and slow down stuff depending on what the batter is doing. If he’s trying to cheat to a fastball, maybe I’ll throw a really slow breaking ball. If he’s trying to sit back on my slider, maybe I’ll throw a cutter, so they think it’s a fastball, jump on it and it tails away a little. I just try to mix things up with every pitch I have. There are not too many people in the world who can just throw two pitches and get away with it. Mariano Rivera only had to throw one pitch. I really just use everything I have and keep it down, keep it low.” O’Rourke has seen his role altered, particularly in 2014. Whereas previously he would typically pitch an inning or two, he now was being used as a LOOGY (left-handed one out guy). O’Rourke provided a scenario. “This past year, I really started focusing on it because I would see a left-hander is batting fourth next inning. The coach would be like ‘Ryan, you have the fourth hitter. The fourth batter gets up, you get it.’ That’s where I kind of saw my role of OK, here’s a lefty, you need to get a lefty.” As he saw more and more success against same-sided hitters, he noticed some changes. “I started seeing batters just kind of standing there and just being like, ‘I’m going to wait for him to prove that he can throw three strikes because I’m not going to swing at a ball and miss.’ Then toward the end of the year, the managers were just pulling every lefty. If a lefty was coming up, they’d just put in a righty.” Sure, O’Rourke probably would have liked to face more left-handed hitters, but he understood and looked at it the right way. “I just took it as a compliment.” After playing in Puerto Rico during the previous offseason, Ryan O’Rourke had the opportunity to play in Venezuela this year. He pitched 12.2 innings over 21 appearances for Aguilas del Zulia before coming back to the States for the holidays and for some rest before spring training starts. He was very excited about going to Venezuela and had goals to make the most of the opportunity. “I was told this is the hardest winter league. My goal was to go down there, enjoy myself, immerse myself in the culture and have a good experience. That was goal #1 for me. And goal #2 was to get better at baseball, learn what guys are going to do, everything. A lot of the hitters there are veterans, big leaguers. I mean, I faced Bobby Abreu down there. That was pretty cool!” There are many difficulties for American ballplayers in Venezuela. One of the obvious ones is the language barrier. O’Rourke worked on it, and he really thrived. “I took Spanish in college, but I’ve probably learned more in minor league baseball. Down there, it’s 100% necessity that you need to know. If you know broken Spanish, you’ll get by, but I got pretty close to conversational fluency. All the Americans were asking me to translate. We’d go out to eat and guys would ask me to sit with them so I could order for them.” All in all, it was a great opportunity for the 26-year-old left-hander from Massechusetts. “I went down there and it was a great experience. I was happy with what I accomplished on the field, and I was happy with everything I learned off the field. My time there, I think I spent it intelligently, and I’m happy I did it. I think that the Twins were happy I did it as well.” Whether it was his performance in Venezuela, or his performance with the New Britain Rock Cats (and one appearance with Rochester) in 2014, O’Rourke made an impression. Enough of an impression that while he was sitting on the beach in Venezuela one day, he received a call on his cell phone with a Minnesota number. “Terry Ryan called me and asked how are things were going down there. He talked to me about the season, said I had a good year and that there are always things to improve on. Then he told me that they were going to invite me into spring training. It was a short, quick conversation. It was a good conversation. I was excited, and surprised. You always think in the back of your head that you have a chance.” Being a non-roster Invitee to big league spring training guarantees nothing for a player, but as O’Rourke acknowledges, it is an opportunity. “That’s the way I look at it. In minor league camp, we always have a talk that someone in that room is going to get to the big leagues that year who didn’t pitch at all in big league camp. And it does happen every year. Look at AJ Achter last year. He was in minor league camp, pitched and got a call in September. But, the amount of guys that were in big league camp that pitched in the big leagues last year was exponentially higher. I’m hoping to make the team right out of camp, don’t get me wrong, but if that doesn’t happen, I want to get the first call. I mean, that’s just the reality of it.” He was very excited for his long-time friend AJ Achter when he got his September call up to the big leagues. “Everyone in the locker room that day was just pumped. Couldn’t happen to a better guy.” However, O’Rourke sees Achter’s situation as something more. “I was probably one of the first guys that AJ met in pro ball and we’ve been great friends ever since. It was just a great moment for me for it to happen to him because… this might sound weird, but look at my good buddy getting called up there. It’s motivation. I’ve been with him every step of the way. So, what’s to say I can’t do it too?” So, what will it be like when Ryan O’Rourke does, at some point, get that call that he will pitch in the big leagues? What will it be like to don that Minnesota Twins uniform in a regular season game for the first time? He quickly pointed out, “Don’t knock the spring training games. That will be a big moment too.” He continued, “Everything’s a step on the way. When you get the call from A-Ball to High-A, that was a good moment. High-A to AA was a cool moment. AA to AAA… They’re all cool moments. But getting the call to the peak of baseball is going to be… I don’t know… I don’t know. I’ll probably sit there and wonder if it’s real. When it happens, it’s going to be a great moment. I’ll just think of all the long bus rides, the struggles, the ups and downs, and all that culminating in the eventual biggest moment of your life when you get called up to the big leagues. I’ll probably call my Mom and my Mom is going to start crying. I’m going to work hard and if it happens, it happens. That’s why I play baseball. That’s why I give it all I have to put myself in a position to get that call.” On the morning of Christmas Eve, Ryan O’Rourke boarded a six-passenger plane in Venezuela. It traveled to Aruba where they encountered a storm that shook the plane. Somehow, the pilot landed the plane safely. Another flight later, and he was home with his family for Christmas and some time off before heading down to Ft. Myers in early February for his first spring training. He’ll try to get to some Boston Bruins games and hopes to get to a Patriots game in Foxboro if they keep their season alive. I’m sure that, on some level, O’Rourke has felt his career has been as shaky as that small plane ride. The Pingel family calls him “A kid at heart.” He is also a kid with heart, heart that has him attending big league spring training next month. O’Rourke has kind of always been an underdog, and he’s been able to get to this point. He’s certainly one guy to cheer for this spring. (Almost three years ago, in the early days of Twins Daily, Ryan O’Rourke wrote an article for our site which you can read by clicking here.) Click here to view the article
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Article: Rocking The Boat?
Seth Stohs replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Uggh!! Sorry Kennys... but take your day off, and respect what a guy like Carlos Baerga has done in the game!! Not good to hear this. Of course, we don't know the whole story, but still. -
Article: Projecting 2015 Value for Youngsters
Seth Stohs replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
True. Vargas will get 0 Defensive WAR whereas we assume Arcia's Defensive WAR will be negative in LF... so 0 is better than negative. That's why if I had a guess, I'd say that Santana will have the highest WAR because I think his Offensive numbers will come down quite a bit, his defense as a SS should help some.- 12 replies
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Article: Projecting 2015 Value for Youngsters
Seth Stohs replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He played 135 games in 2013... I will be disappointed if he doesn't play in about 140-150 games this year. It'll mean, as you mention, that his back flares up and it costs him. I'd agree too that I think Santana should play a lot more than 113 games... Of course, they do need to get Escobar playing time.- 12 replies
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I know at one point Colby Rasmus was rumored to be looking for (and people thought he would get) 3 years... maybe at this point he'd be willing to sign a Stephen Drew (1 year, $5 million with some incentives) type of deal. Otherwise, I'd be good with Aaron Hicks and Jordan Schafer... or even Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson if they want Hicks to spend more time in Rochester.
- 32 replies
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- joe mauer
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You can check Jeremy's Org Chart to verify, but I believe Milone has one more option. Pressly has two option years. I believe Nunez is out of options.
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- joe mauer
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Ricky Nolasco not only has the contract, but he has track record... Before last year, he posted 6 straight year's with a FIP under 3.90. Even with his 5.38 ERA last year, his FIP was just 4.30, not good, but not as bad as we'd think. Add in the fact that he was hurt... He absolutely should and will be in the rotation on Opening Day, unless there is an injury. I want to see May in the rotation, and I think Meyer should be up too, but that's just my opinion. We think that they're better than the alternatives, but we don't know. And, they will be needed throughout the season. Hopefully when they get their opportunities, they take full advantage.
- 30 replies
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- joe mauer
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Nothing wrong with creating competition. And of course, there are always injuries that pop up in spring training and throughout the season.
- 30 replies
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