Seth Stohs

There are plenty of potential real reasons that it won't happen, but I personally think he'll be up.

I don't think Shooter Hunt is a good example just because Steve Blass Disease isn't even really about control, it's about so much more. Bullock is a good example. I always figure you can count on a pitcher's walk rate going up 15-20% as he moves up each level just because hitters are smarter about the strike zone. Just a rough number, but something.

I'm assuming the Hoey stuff is a joke... it's weird to bring up, but some like bringing up negatives a lot. The two aren't really comparable in any way. Hoey threw 97. Burdi is consistently above that and has secondary pitches. This guy has some elite talent.

His slider between 89-91 is pretty devastating.

I don't know. If I lived semi-close to the Twin Cities, I'd be all over this. It isn't just for casual fans, but real Twins fans can get the same price. And then hang out at Target Field watching Major League baseball every Sunday afternoon! Well, when there was a home game, of course.

Yup, that is pretty cynical. What is the value at this point in delaying anything with Meyer? And, then why isn't Arcia still in the minor leagues? There are things that he needs to work on. There's no question about that. That has nothing to do with service time or costs or anything.

Nolasco has many years of a solid track record and a large contract. Gibson did enough to be in the rotation on OPening Day. Of course, that's still subject to change after a couple of months. I think the article (and I may be biased since I wrote it and read all box scores throughout the year) pretty clearly gives plenty of reason to give Meyer a month or so in AAA to work through some things. It won't hurt him at all. Meyer is going to get up to the Twins in 2015. There's no doubt, unless he's hurt. But he's going to make it. One or two months is not going to make a huge difference. Talking to him a little bit, he will handle whatever decision they make very well and be better for it.

Some of us older individuals who remember watching a certain "big-boned" centerfielder might disagree... at least for the time being.

I'm very comfortable with our ranking.

No, he hasn't... people apparently prefer to discuss the value of stats over the players... but i think you're right. Health is the key for Thorpe. Here's hoping!!

Yesterday, we looked at one candidate for the Minnesota Twins’ fifth starter job out of spring training, Mike Pelfrey. Today, we continue this series by looking at another candidate. He’s the tallest candidate, but he also has the biggest fastball and the most devastating slider. Can Alex Meyer stake claim to a spot in the Minnesota Twins starting rotation on Opening Day?The Background Alex Meyer was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 20th round of the 2008 MLB Draft. He was offered $2 million but chose to go pitch at the University of Kentucky. Three years later, he received that $2 million bonus anyway. He was drafted by the Nationals with their first round pick, the 23rd overall pick, seven picks before the Twins took Levi Michael. The Nationals had him start in Low-A where he made 18 starts before moving up to High-A for seven more starts. Following the season, the Twins acquired the right-hander in a deal that sent Denard Span to the Nationals. In 2013, he made 13 starts for New Britain (in which he struck out 84 batters in 70 innings). Unfortunately, he felt some shoulder discomfort and pitched only in rehab the rest of the season. He went to the Arizona Fall League where he made seven starts to get more work. It was clear that the Twins had one main goal for Alex Meyer in 2014: to keep him healthy through the season, and they were successful. He moved up to Rochester and made 27 starts. He went 7-7 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. In 130.1 innings, he struck out 153 (10.6 per nine), but he also walked 64 (4.4 per nine). Following the season, Meyer was added to the Twins 40-man roster. The Hope The Twins last had a true #1, ace starting pitcher in 2008 when Johan Santana was still with the team. Yes, Francisco Liriano had an ace-like season in 2010, but he was unable to show any consistency from year to year, much less month to month. When the Twins acquired Meyer, he immediately gave Twins fans a hope for a future ace, whether that was fair or not. Meyer is blessed with good pitches. He has a fastball that sits between 95 and 98 and has even hit triple-digits a few times. He is known to have a devastating slider. With his height, he is able to release his pitches just a little bit closer to the plate which makes it jump on hitters. He has an improving, though still inconsistent changeup. He credited Rochester teammate Yohan Pino for helping him with that pitch. We love strikeouts. Missed bats are exciting. We don’t want quick outs. We want strikeouts. One thing that Alex Meyer can do is get strikeouts. In 2012, he struck out 9.7 per nine. In 2013, he struck out 11.0 per nine innings. In 2014, he averaged 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings in AAA. The Concerns Walks will haunt, right? After walking 3.1 per nine in 2012 and 3.4 per nine in 2013, Meyer walked 4.4 per nine inning at Rochester in 2014. Baseball people often say that for tall pitchers it is more difficult and takes longer to find a consistent release point for their pitches. There are many such examples. In an interview on 1500ESPN at Twins Fest, Meyer was asked about that theory. He said that he is fully aware of it, but he finds it to just be an excuse for not throwing strikes. That’s a very responsible, accountable response to the theory. Regardless, for Meyer to be an effective starting pitcher in the big leagues, he is going to have to harness and control his terrific stuff. Moving up the baseball ladder means facing hitters who are generally more patient and don’t swing at as many pitches outside the zone. Big league hitters will make him throw strikes. One concern is that Meyer, because of the number of walks and strikeouts, needs to throw a lot of pitches. He frequently was able to only go five innings or less because he was at 85 to 100 pitches by that point. In 11 of his starts, he failed to get an out in the sixth inning. The Twins have a rule that if a pitcher throws more than 30 pitches in an inning, he will not come out for the next inning. That is a pretty standard rule across baseball. He had a three-start stretch in mid-June where he couldn’t get to the fourth inning because of pitch count. He followed that with a stretch of five straight games in which he went exactly six innings, something he did just one more time over his final eight starts. That leads to many people wondering if he wouldn’t best be served working out of the bullpen, something he would not be against. However, the goal at this time remains for him to be a starter, and hopefully a frontline starter. More Hope and Unfair Comps If he does not win the fifth starter job, it is possible that Meyer could begin his career as a bullpen arm. That is how the Twins eased Johan Santana onto the roster (obviously under different – Rule 5 – circumstances), and he turned out well. Meyer could replace Anthony Swarzak as a long reliever and work three to five innings when necessary. Of course, he could also go to the back-end of the bullpen and be a more dominant set-up man. He pitched an inning in relief for Team USA in the Futures Game at Target Field in 2014. Many want to compare Meyer to 6-10 Randy Johnson who was just voted into the Hall of Fame last month. He debuted as a 24 year old in 1988 with the Expos. In 1989, he pitched 160.2 innings between Montreal and Seattle and walked 5.4 batters per nine innings while striking out just 7.3 per nine. He then led the league in walks from 1990 through 1992. He finally put it all together in his age-29 season of 1993. He cut his walks in half and became an annual Cy Young candidate, winning five awards and finishing second three more times. It’s fun to compare what Meyer could be to what Randy Johnson was. Is it fair? I don’t know. Comparing a prospect with zero big league innings to a Hall of Famer is fine, as long as fans realize that that result is pretty rare. In other words, patience is a must for Meyer, the Twins and Twins fans. So many look at the fact that he turned 25 in January and think that he’s now too old to be a prospect. People really need to stop that. The guy has immense talent, but he does still have things to work on. If he is called up by midseason, he’s still up at 25 and can have a strong career for 12 to 15 years. The Twins need to not listen to any of that and do what is in the player’s best short- and long-term interest. Meyer Percentage So, if I were to guess the odds that Alex Meyer begins the season as the Twins fifth starter, I would probably put the odds at close to 10%. I think there is a slightly better chance that he starts the season in the Twins bullpen, just due to numbers. If he begins the year in Rochester, this would allow him to work as a starter, getting more innings, working in, and hopefully out of, more situations and continuing to work on his third and fourth pitches. Either way, I have little doubt that he will be up in the big leagues before June, whether it is due to injury or ineffectiveness in the rotation or in the bullpen. When Jeremy and I asked Meyer in November what his goals are for 2015, the pensive Meyer responded by saying, “Every year I’ve set goals, and this year I won’t. I want to let them come to me. I don’t want to set any expectations because you never know what can happen. I’m going to go out there, wherever they send me, whether it’s Minnesota, Rochester, or in Cedar Rapids. I just want to go out there and pitch as well as I can, continue to get better as a pitcher, and whenever the big leagues calls, you want to make sure you’re ready. I just want to go out there and throw as well as I can. I just hope I can help the team sometime during the year, whether it’s from Game 1 in April or whenever that time would be.” Click here to view the article

So now prospect lists get turned into Mauer bashing/praising opportunities now? Keep on topic, please.

Of course, now they'll go out and buy James Shields. Ha! Poor guy. Second time he'll have had this done in 4 years.

I think DeVries squeeked into a Top 50 prospect list of mine one year, maybe... I don't think Fox ever did.

For those that got the Twins Prospect Handbook, my personal ranking for this group was: Rogers 11, Thorpe 12, Kepler 13, Walker 14, Gonsalves 15. I really like Gonsalves and think he has very good potential. Rogers has done well up to AA. It's unfortunate that he missed so much AFL time. As far as the concern about him not being able to go 180+ innings, that's fair because he is long and thin. But again, when I read reports of him having 3 solid pitches including a fastball that touches 95, I can't help but get excited. Now if Gonsalves can put together a strong first full season, he absolutely can move way up this list.

Remember that Kepler will have a fourth option year, so I don't think the clock is ticking terribly quickly. It's definitely not ticking on Thorpe and Gonsalves. They have lots of time. And Rogers doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man roster until after the 2015 season, so there's really no rush for him either.

Good discussion. I really like Gonsalves, but I've never read anyone say his ceiling is #1 or #2 starter. That's not to say that he couldn't get there with some development. He's got terrific potential though which is why I like his ranking in the low teens. I don't think anyone makes too big of a deal of his parents being dancers. It's one piece of scouting information. I think his power potential and the strides he took in the 2nd half in Ft. Myers (when healthy and playing every day) and his performance in the AFL remind us that the guy has terrific talent.

Which piece did I write on him? I haven't written about him (other than in the prospect handbook) for awhile. he's a great kid though, works hard, very thoughtful and smart, and he definitely has a chance to be very good. We just need to be patient.

I'm definitely not one who believes that spring training performance should be a big factor in decision-making, but I don't know how else they settle this.

DeVries and Fox weren't lefties that sat 91-93 and hit 95 with the fastball and have really good breaking pitches too.

Just 8 starts in Cedar Rapids. I would think he'd spend at least another half-season in Iowa.

I kind of have that started. Ill try to find a good way to get that posted when this list and Gleeman's are done.

I really have no problem with him getting an opportunity. As I wrote, I think his chances at about 20%, and the could be high. But, at the end of the day, I wouldn't be upset if he got the job. He's not old. Getting him to provide some value for the season's first three months might mean they can get a C-prospect back for him in June or July.

Last week I looked at the Minnesota Twins’ centerfield position and provided several options for what could happen in spring training. One other position that will be up for grabs in spring training is the fifth starter role. Unless there is an injury, we know that Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson and Ricky Nolasco will be in the rotation on Opening Day. However, there are several candidates for the fifth starter job and we’ll take a look at them over the next week, starting with Mike Pelfrey.The Background Pelfrey is a big, 6-7, 250 pound right-hander. He was the Mets first round draft pick (ninth overall) in the 2005 draft out of Wichita State. The Scott Boras client came to the Twins before the 2013 season on a one-year contract. He had undergone Tommy John surgery in April of 2012 but reports indicated that he would be ready for Opening Day 2013. Was he ready? Was he healthy? Either way, the numbers were just not good in 2013. He made 29 starts and pitched 152.2 innings, but he went 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. For whatever reason, that performance turned into a two-year extension with the Twins last offseason. Unfortunately, it was another rough season for the veteran. He went 0-3 with a 7.99 ERA and a 1.99 WHIP in five starts before being shut down. He clearly wasn’t healthy as he walked 6.8 per nine in that time. At Twins Fest, he told a handful of writers, “I feel bad, like I’ve taken money from the Twins. It’s been frustrating. You play this game to play, and compete, and be successful and do it well. Obviously that hasn’t happened.” He spent the entire 2014 season rehabbing. Recently he said, “Rehab kind of stinks, but we got through it. I felt good. I think if the season had gone maybe another week, I probably could have pitched, maybe out of the bullpen or something just to do it.” The 31-year-old says that he “got a little extra shoulder program that was more maintenance, strengthening stuff.” For the first time since 2007, he says, Pelfrey will have to compete for a starting job in spring training. Back then, it really wasn’t a competition. “It was El Duque (Orlando Hernandez) or me, and if he was healthy, it was him.” The Mets handed Pelfrey the job when Hernandez was injured. Pelfrey is excited to get spring training and this competition underway. “It’s the first time in a while I have to go in and win a job. I have no one to blame but myself. Staying healthy and not performing… That’s on me.” The Hope Though he has never been front-end starter, he has a couple of years that were very solid. In 2008, he went 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 200.2 innings. In 2010, he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 204 innings. Those aren’t great, elite numbers by any means, but if a 2015 Mike Pelfrey can reach 200 innings with a sub-four ERA, Twins fans should be thrilled. That would be terrific for a fifth starter. The Alternative Pelfrey understands that there is some quality competition for the fifth starter job. “There are some young guys with very good arms. Tommy Milone has a pretty good track record too.” So what if Pelfrey loses the competition for the fifth starter job. Would he be willing to go to the bullpen? “Ultimately, I probably wouldn’t have a choice.” However, he would embrace it. He understands that it would be an adjustment as he has never really done it before. However, he would see it as another challenge, one he would be up for. “It’s still the same game, it’s pitching.” However, he isn’t going to go into spring training thinking about a job in the bullpen. “This is the best I’ve felt since before Tommy John surgery. I’m ready to go in and win a job!” Pelfrey Percentage So, if I were to venture a guess for the chances that Mike Pelfrey begins the season as the Twins fifth starter job, it isn’t a simple "No" as many may think. Now healthy, he deserves the opportunity to compete for the position. However, despite being owed $5.5 million for 2015, I would put the odds at only about 20%. Click here to view the article