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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    What has been worse for longest: The Mets outfield or the Twins middle infield?
  2. Willihammer
    I think its pretty clear that Mauer is scoring on a home run, and Morneau is high-fiving him as he steps into the righthanded batters box.
  3. Willihammer
    If they start contributing. Not when. That's the whole thing. JO Berrios could wind up to be the next Sandy Koufax. Or Adam Johnson. The only thing that's guaranteed about them is that there will be a significant waiting period before we know for sure. There are good arguments to be made on both sides, I appreciate that.
  4. Willihammer
    Brock you are comparing two franchises that haven't been relevant for 20 years. I think, in terms of a general strategy with developing specs, "staying the course" was exactly the wrong move in both cases for the majority of that time.
  5. Willihammer
    Not at all? Shields is having a gigantic year. The problem with the Royals isn't that trade. That was the right move, they prepared for their big specs to work out (Hosmer, Moustakas). But those specs haven't worked out. That's their problem. If they had traded Hosmer and Moustakas when their stock was high, they might have a contender right now.
  6. Willihammer
    This is why I proposed the Twins pursue MLB talent, and sell prospect(s). If everyone is trying to get their hands on high ceiling prospects, specifically pitching prospects, then why aren't the Twins shopping a JO Berrios? Certainly the market is larger, the prices are higher for those guys than for a washed up Justin Morneau or a 60 IP reliever. edit: I guess I shouldn't assume the Twins aren't shoppiong their specs. It is something that just isn't discussed on TD very often.
  7. Willihammer
    All the more reason to think seriously about trading them now, IMO. There is of course, free agency for outfielders too.
  8. Willihammer
    IMO the Twins aren't so far away from contention and need to prepare themselves in the event that the position specs work out. There isn't enough pitching talent to match the positional talent in the high minors, so it makes sense to me to consider trading some of that positional talent (in the low minors if possible) for, preferably, MLB-ready pitching. This team isn't the Astros. They could be competitive as soon as next season.
  9. Willihammer
    Because they're the Marlins? Ok I guess its a pipe dream. What about Gallardo?
  10. Willihammer
    Why not?
  11. Willihammer
    Really? My understanding was that the Astros are taking a very long view in their rebuild. Might even listen on a few Elizabethton or Cedar Rapids outfielders with upside (like Kepler). Hard to say. And if Fernandez keeps representing the marlins at the all-star game then Loria is going to have some expensive Arby years to pay for. Might they listen to a trade involving Kohl Stewart?
  12. Willihammer
    I suppose when a prospect works out the organization views it as validation of their drafting and development systems as much as the player just being talented. Then again, when a trade works out you can attribute that to good scouting. You would think a NL team in full rebuild mode like the Astros or Marlins would listen on some of our guys. I wonder what it would take to get a Norris or Fernandez? edit: forgot the Strohs were in the AL now.
  13. Willihammer
    Maybe they should trade one of them insead?
  14. Willihammer
    From the Dave Cameron article: This is an impossible claim. Cameron has no idea what GM's are offering for Parnell or Perkins. I suspect that by now most GMs acknowledge that trading for closers is a high risk, low reward proposition that can very well get them shotgun-canned like Bill Smith. The mention of Neftali Feliz is interesting though. Before he was a top 10 closer in 2010, he was a top 10 spec. So what if the ripest fruit the Twins could trade at this moment is in fact a guy like Alex Meyer, Trevor May, or Kohl Stewart?
  15. Willihammer

    Liriano

    Willihammer replied to kydoty's topic in Other Baseball

    He's largely abandoned the 4 seemer. His change in pitch usage this year versus 2006-Jul 2012: http://i.imgur.com/1UehE0d.png Look at his profile page on brooksbaseball, the 4 seemer is the one that got hit the hardest, historically.
  16. Willihammer
    Brock, you have to accept the possibility that the Twins could have run the table and won all 15/15 games that Anibal would have started, regardless of the differences in WAR. Unlikely, but definitely possible. Certainly Anibal gives you a better chance than Pelfrey. You can't just state "the Twins would have missed the playoffs anyway" as a matter of fact. Its impossible to know. edit: I'd even add that the 15 start baseline is a bit presumptuous. Maybe in this parallel timeline Anibal doesn't strain his shoulder and starts 19 games? Maybe he starts zero? Again, impossible to know.
  17. Willihammer
    Do you really want to argue the validity of WAR? I hesitate to engage on this but suffice to say the World Series champs had less WAR than the last place Red Sox last year. You can't just tally the individual p layer WARs and say "this team will win xx many games." The math doesn't even add up. Replacement level team should win 55 games right? Then the Tigers should have won 80 games last year instead of 88. The Giants shoudl have won 67 instead of 94.
  18. Willihammer
    Where does this number come from? The Twins are 12 games out. Take Anibal away from the Tigers, and you cut into their win total immediately. Maybe 2-3 games, but it could be more, or less. Take Pelfrey out of the rotation and replace him with Anibal, and you improve the Twins record by what, 3-5 games? More depending on how much of the the July collapse you blame on the bullpen possibly getting gassed. Maybe they trade for Phil Hughes. Or Nolasco. Who knows?
  19. Willihammer
    We could go round and round, but I'll just state that I'm not necessarily convinced that would have been the case. If the Twins had gotten 15 starts out of Anibal instead of, say, Pelfrey, then maybe Perkins makes 4 or 5 more appearances, with a lead. Maybe the bullpen doesn't show signs of getting gassed two weeks before the all-star break, and the Twins go into "buy mode" instead of "trade mode," etc etc.
  20. Willihammer
    The Twins. 2 years of Anibal is better than 2 years of whatever sub-replacement scrub he'd be keeping off the roster, yeah?
  21. Willihammer
    No, but in years 2-5 of that contract, that value added could have been a critical difference. Doubly critical by denying that value to a division rival.
  22. Willihammer
    Just for comparison, I hate WAR though: Correia: 110.2 IP 1.1 WAR Deduno: 62.1 IP 1.1 WAR Worley: 48.2 IP-1.3 WAR Pelfrey: 82.2 IP -0.5 WAR Diamond: 91.1 IP -0.5 WAR Hernandez: 37.1 IP -0.2 WAR edit: updated WAR values
  23. Willihammer
    You're right. What were the Rangers thinking?
  24. Willihammer
    The Rangers locked up a top-5 SS who is just 24 for a very long time versus rolling the dice with a very close but as-yet unproven talent. We should be so lucky to have an FO who would do the same. They can always stick Kinsler in the outfield, esp. now that it looks like Cruz will be suspended for his involvement in the biogenesis deal. Far from a screw up, from where I'm standing.
  25. Willihammer
    Might Rosario be a better candidate for super-util player, possibly in a semi-platoon with some of the righthanded bats like Dozier? edit: I see he hasn't played any outfield (or SS) this year at all, so maybe not.
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