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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Really, can you quantify that? Because I'm confident that we'd be looking at around .130 points of OPS drop at 1B playing Parmelee instead of Mauer. Parmelee has 3500 professional at bats to back that confidence up.
  2. Willihammer
    New SIERA, Part One (of Five): Pitchers with High Strikeouts Have Low BABIPs | FanGraphs Baseball [TABLE] STRIKEOUT GROUP BABIP[TD=width: 58]HR/FB[/TD] [TD=width: 139]HIGH[/TD] [TD=width: 50].286[/TD] [TD=width: 58]9.1%[/TD] [TD=width: 139]MEDIUM-HIGH[/TD] [TD=width: 50].295[/TD] [TD=width: 58]10.2%[/TD] [TD=width: 139]MEDIUM-LOW[/TD] [TD=width: 50].298[/TD] [TD=width: 58]10.7%[/TD] [TD=width: 139]LOW[/TD] [TD=width: 50].301[/TD] [TD=width: 58]10.7%[/TD] [/TABLE] BTW, SIERA's your god stat. Or as close to it as anything I"m aware of.
  3. Willihammer
    Parmelee as an everyday 1B is a worse idea, hence my use of the word "better."
  4. Willihammer
    I'm just not willing to punt at bats or fractions of at-bats just to pound the point home that Parmelee is clearly the lesser hitter.
  5. Willihammer
    If Parmelee could catch, then sure league average would be fine and I'd definitely play him instead of Doumit. But we're talking about 1B here. Whatever your plan is for 2014, it shouldn't involve a league average bat at 1B. We'd be better off sticking Mauer there and catching Doumit.
  6. Willihammer
    Sure it is. Its better versus lefthanders, its better versus righthanders. By about .100 points.
  7. Willihammer
    Well what is it then. If not the 3000 minor league PAs, or the 500 MLB ones, then how many PAs over what period of time, in what league will it take to convince you (or anyone) what Parmelee's true talent level is?
  8. Willihammer
    Its actually the opposite. Contact pitchers have higher BABIPs than strikeout pitchers, on average. They have worse HR/FB rates too, so xFIP overvalues them also.
  9. Willihammer
    In descending order of OPS: Arcia, Hammer, Morneau, Doumit. Morneau leads the team in RBI with only 3 home runs because the guy hitting in front of him gets on base. Hammer needs to start everyday. Arcia is making a bid for RoY. He needs to start everyday. Morneau hits better than Parmelee and I'll go ahead and assume he plays a better 1B also. He needs to play everyday. Doumit's hitting about identically to Parmelee at the moment but has a better track record. More importantly, Doumit's the backup catcher, so he's not going anywhere. Parmelee OPSed at .820 in 3000 minor league PAs. He's OPSing .744 after 506 MLB PAs. Seems about right to me.
  10. Willihammer
    He's had 500+ PAs.
  11. Willihammer
    [video=youtube;Adp-zuOcco0]
  12. Willihammer
    What happens in 2014?
  13. Willihammer
    Appel's timeline doesn't sync with The Rebuilding Plan either. Far too close to being MLB ready.
  14. Willihammer
    The horror! Parmelee's had 203 chances to prove himself this year and left his bat on his shoulder for way too many good pitches IMO. I agree he should probably go back down but only because he's pretty much a dead roster spot at this point.
  15. Willihammer
    As opposed to Pelfrey. How do you scout a TJ? I didn't have a quibble with taking a 4m flyer on him. Or trading my favorite player for a fringe 5th starter with 2 pitches and taking a flyer on him. My gripe was in penciling those guys into the 3 and 1 spot in your rotation well before the end of free agency, especially when DIamond was coming off a 3rd elbow surgery and Gibson a 4th. Thank God Correia has worked out, because spots 2-5 have have actually been worse than last year's rotation.
  16. Willihammer
    5.11 ERA
  17. Willihammer
    I think Diamond earned his spot in the rotation with his performance last year. Now Worley and Pelfrey were/are on scholarships. I chalk it up to rust.
  18. Willihammer
    To Jr's credit, Correia has been just what the doctor ordered. If only he'd not stopped there we might be looking at a more functional back half of the rotation and (gasp) a contender!
  19. Willihammer
    If there's anyone in the org with nothing left to prove in the minor leagues, I would think its Richardson.
  20. Willihammer
    Nobody's untradeable IMO but it would need to be a pretty big haul. Who did you have in mind?
  21. Willihammer
    Because I screwed up. The charts vs. both LH and RH for 2013 are as follows: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&time=month&player=460059&startDate=01/01/2013&endDate=01/01/2014&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=2&b_hand=-1 http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&time=month&player=502032&startDate=01/01/2013&endDate=01/01/2014&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=2&b_hand=L http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&time=month&player=279824&startDate=01/01/2013&endDate=01/01/2014&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=2&b_hand=L Not as stark but there's still a visible difference in approaches I think
  22. Willihammer
    But that doesn't appear to be the goal. Look at Pelfrey's zone charts with two strikes. There are a lot of meatballs there. None of them is a strikeout pitcher but I think the goals are different and so are the results. edit: pics in another post
  23. Willihammer
    I may be misinterpreting the philosophy, but PTC seems to stress the importance of inducing double plays as a means of working through jams, without taking into account all those times where contact is induced and a double play isn't the result. In my opinion, when a runner gets on base, that's the worst time to try to induce contact. I don't care how many outs there are, you should be looking to get strike one over and then your goal should be to strike that batter out.
  24. Willihammer
    The thought of the Twins trading Plouffe right now makes me queasy.
  25. Willihammer
    Arcia currently sports a HR/FB% of 10.3%. Does anyone think that's going to last beyond next week? He must have hit about 2500 feet worth of fly balls that were caught at the track or banged off the wall.
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