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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    It was a joke. "Scorekeepers are harder on players today" is not something you ever hear. At least I never have.
  2. Willihammer
    They were worse but scorekeepers were more lax in those days, didn't usually go as an error.
  3. Willihammer
    Dave Winfield got a full scholarship to the U of MN - for basketball. Sano is not more athletic than Dave Winfield.
  4. Willihammer
    What about an iphone?
  5. Willihammer
    Huh. I should have checked first. Buddy told me Best Buy was offering the Pixel for $400 but I can't verify that now.
  6. Willihammer
    I'm sure you're right. But honestly this is a good move for me. I've never been an Apple consumer. I hate their inflated prices and $25 adapters and the proprietary universe- everything that made them such a great stock to own. But a front page thread like this suggests to me there is a growing number of consumers who are fed up with all that. Hell the new google phone is basically half the cost of the iphone 7. And by all accounts its awesome. I just don't share your confidence in Apple in the medium term and honestly, I'm jonesing to get as much TSLA as I can. Its an opportunity cost equation for me. TSLA's my biggest holding now, I'm all in.
  7. Willihammer
    Its not much but this reddit thread prompted me to sell all my AAPL today. My god the negativity. Who can blame them? Doubled down on TSLA.
  8. Willihammer
    Bought a bunch of TSLA today at 202.45. This ought to be fun.
  9. Willihammer
    Ah quit complaining The market still loves AMZN. Now GRPN, they got shelled. Wiped out almost all my gains from when I bought in last winter. But, that's been a good stock for covered call premiums. Don't have to worry about getting called out on that stock!
  10. Willihammer
    I think possibly you're conflating "average" and "replacement level." He has had a below average bat amongst a pool of players all above replacement level. Baserunning has added to his value as well. Ultimately the market rewarded him with a 9 figure salary so while the stats may be off on the margins (maybe the RF positional adjustment ought to be -10 runs instead of -7.5, for example), it gets pretty close. At least, the market thinks so (in addition to fangraphs, etc). correction- the bat has been above average (111 wRC+)
  11. Willihammer
    Its not like he had a huge WAR this year. He didn't hit, his defense is still good (defense never slumps). Overall his WAR is 1.5. What's the problem?
  12. Willihammer
    Ultimately I don't care how Apple turns a profit but I thought when I bought in last year there'd be a lot more product innovation than I've seen. Instead they've delivered... a watch. Maybe I just have to come to grips with the fact that they're a value stock now, not a growth stock.
  13. Willihammer
    Re Heyward, 2016 looks like an outlier to me. He's still 27. Lots of time to make good on that contract.
  14. Willihammer
    Ugh, Apple. Underwhelming earnings calls are becoming a regular thing. Tons of assets, not much return on them anymore. Time for a new CEO?
  15. Willihammer
    I think you are on something or onto something. Maybe they can even turn a couple of the suspects in the rotation into bullpen assets. I'm thinking about Gibson and Duffey especially. Then maybe they do the same on defense- move Sano to first or DH and plug something resembling a major league catcher and shortstop onto the field. Those are moves a mid-market team ought to be able to accomplish in an offseason.
  16. Willihammer
    I agree Vargas is an interesting bounceback candidate. Straight TJS.
  17. Willihammer
    Sounds like KC is in a little window right now where they just ran an operating loss, which their cheap ass owner hates doing apparently, and renegotiating their TV contract which probably won't happen for another year. They could be looking to dump salary. Should the Twins have any interest in their highest paid players- Gordon, Kennedy, Vargas?
  18. Willihammer
    The idea that KC is actually considering declining Volquez's mutual option, when Volquez wants to come back, over $10m, seems crazy to me. Same with Morales.
  19. Willihammer
    When's the last time that happened?
  20. Willihammer
    I tend to agree. The Twins have a fair amount of those pitchers in the system already. We are a lot thinner at C and SS IMO. I wonder if the Braves could be a sneaky trade partner though. They are opening a new park and will have to put together a competitive team somewise somehow. They do have some middle infielders already but maybe they would listen on Dozier for the star power he offers. He's also a southerner so maybe there'd be a one of us angle. I wonder if they'd part with an Ozzie Albies for him.
  21. Willihammer
    Earnings mostly good so far. Apple, Google and others reporting next week. At 1pm the Fed is scheduled to release its "Beige Book," a summation of anecdotal data from contacts around the various Fed districts. I doubt the market will react much but could have some interesting nuggets in it.
  22. Willihammer
    It is what it is. It's a crude measure but over a large enough sample seems to line up with zone-based stats. Which we don't have for minor leaguers. not that I'm aware of anyway. Do you know any zone-based range stats for Nick Gordon?
  23. Willihammer
    Yes, and with more range than these other guys, Gordon was likely fielding a higher difficulty of batted ball, on average. If we are trying to get a bead on Gordon's defense, that half of the equation needs to be factored in too. The classic counterexample is Derek Jeter, who never made an error because he only got to the balls hit right at him.
  24. Willihammer
    As for 2017-2018, I think Cosart would be a fine get. Someone with 1-2 years of control remaining to help bridge the gap. Preferably an above average glove.
  25. Willihammer
    I think you have to give at least a passing look at range in conjunction with FP when it comes to infield defense in the minors. Gordon's RF/9 was 4.88 last year. That is from a sample of 503 chances. By comparison Frank Lindor had a .952 FP and 4.59 RF/9 at the same level. Bogaerts, .958 and 4.28.
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