Nick Nelson

With the arrival of a new year, it's time to update my annual rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Before we get started, a quick overview of the ground rules: Things that are factored into these rankings: production, age, upside, pedigree, health, length of team control, favorability of contract, positional scarcity (within the system, and generally). Players are people. Their value to the organization, and its fans, goes well beyond the strictly business-like scope we're using here. But for the purposes of this list, we're analyzing solely in terms of asset evaluation. Intangible qualities and popularity are not factors. The idea is to assess players' importance to the future of the Minnesota Twins. In this regard, it's not exactly a ranking in terms of trade value, because that's dependent on another team's situation and needs. With that said, the ability to bring back assets in a trade is a major factor. This is a snapshot in time. Rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and where things stood as of the end of 2021. Current major-leaguers and prospects are all eligible. The ultimate goal here to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? Before diving into our latest rankings, feel free to check out the last few years so you can get a baseline: Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021 With that out of the way, let's get started. Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 16 through 20 20. Matt Canterino, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR The back end of this list was extremely challenging to put together. Basically all the candidates are high-upside pitching prospects who are nearing major-league readiness: Canterino, Cole Sands, Drew Strotman, Chris Vallimont, Blayne Enlow, Louie Varland, etc. As a group, this collection is absolutely essential to the franchise's future, but individually, they kinda blur together. It's hard to differentiate and rank them. I elevated Canterino because I think he's a slight cut above the pack. His stuff is incredible and has produced absurd results in a limited pro sample – 1.13 ERA, 14.3 K/9, 0.63 WHIP with 18 hits allowed in 48 innings. But injuries restricted him to six starts in 2021, and he's made only 13 total since being drafted in 2019. If he can get healthy there's a little doubt he'll skyrocket in these rankings, but at age 24 the time is now to make it happen. Canterino recently told Nash Walker that it's "all systems go for 2022." 19. Josh Winder, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR Winder sits in that stable of intriguing near-ready arms alongside Canterino et al. He's relatively advanced, having reached Triple-A in late 2021, and was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. Like Canterino, this right-hander's velocity has risen dramatically over past couple years, along with his stock. Winder is poised to make a more immediate impact than anyone else in this tier because he's already so close. And if his minor-league track record is suggestive, that impact could be significant. In the most recent season, Winder posted a 2.63 ERA and 80-to-13 K/BB ratio in 72 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Our Lucas Seehafer just wrote up a scouting report on Winder, drawing a loose comparison to former Twin Scott Baker. 18. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR Another quality pitching prospect who has reached the upper minors but still has much to prove. Comparatively, Woods Richardson has a bit more prestige – he's a former second-round draft pick (#48 overall, in 2018) who appeared in the top 100 overall prospect rankings from both Baseball America and MLB.com in each of the last two years. He was also a costly acquisition for the Twins, comprising half of the package they received for trading José Berríos at the deadline. The team's investment in him raises the stakes on Woods Richardson's development. Despite the fact he's already reached Double-A, the righty is still only 21 years old, so there's ample time left for him to realize his potential. A big, imposing, broad-shouldered presence on the mound, he oozes projectability. 17. Gilberto Celestino, CF 2021 Ranking: NR A lot of Twins fans are underrating Celestino. This is understandable, since he was terrible in his major-league debut last year, slashing .136/.177/.288 in 62 PA with a -0.7 fWAR. The 22-year-old was not nearly ready for prime time, and the team knew that, but they had little choice as their CF depth evaporated. I wonder how differently Celestino might be viewed right now if he was never called up out of desperation. He was a good prospect coming into 2021 – ranking 11th in our preseason rankings – and hit .290/.384/.443 in 49 games at Triple-A. As a center fielder who was young for the level, that's quite strong. Celestino shapes up as long-term Byron Buxton insurance at least, or maybe even an impact trade chip. 16. Chase Petty, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR All we know about Petty is that he's a highly-touted teenage pitcher with standout velocity plus a promising slider, and the Twins liked him enough to use their first-round pick on him in July. That seems especially notable for a risk-averse front office that has largely trended toward drafting college players with its high draft picks. Petty offers plenty of promising traits to justify his selection at #26 overall, and he showed well during a very brief pro debut, striking out six of 21 batters faced with one walk at rookie ball. But the data we have to go on is incredibly limited. We should learn a great deal more about him in 2022. Check back later this week when we continue the rankings with Part 2. In the meantime, feel free to share your thoughts on these players and where they're ranked in the comments. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

If you can throw strikes and miss bats in the majors I feel pretty good about your chances of having at least moderate success. Mejia and Romero never quite nailed down the "throwing strikes" part. How often have we seen a rookie pitcher (let alone two) come through and have the kind of K/BB success that Ober and Ryan did?

Dear journal, It's been 28 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. As the start of a new year bears down, this feels like a good time to reflect, and to look forward. A big theme for me in the past year, and especially the past week, has been gratitude. During the Christmas holiday, I was able to spend time with numerous family members and close friends — in person. Maybe not as many as I would under "normal" circumstances but it was a seismic improvement over 2020, when these interactions largely took place through a computer screen. I wasn't going to take that for granted. I doubt I ever will again. One of the few silver linings to emerge from this awful pandemic is a renewed sense of perspective and awareness. You don't know what you've got til it's gone. As I look back on the 2021 Twins season, I'm struck by the same feelings. Around the All-Star break, I wrote up a post reflecting on the best and worst first half ever. It sort of summarizes my sentiments on the season as a whole. In terms of the product on the field, it sucked. The team was incredibly disappointing, and managed to effectively eliminate itself from contention by Memorial Day. There were heartbreaking defeats, devastating injuries, and seemingly endless setbacks. At the same time, to even HAVE a product on the field, and to be able to watch it live, in-person, surrounded by my baseball-loving brethren, was reinvigorating. I went to more games at Target Field than in any season before. I savored each moment in the ballpark, even as my favorite team spiraled before my eyes. A road trip to Kansas City with the wife in early June probably best epitomized my experience as a Twins fan in 2021. The six-hour cruise down I35 is one of our favorite summer traditions, and another that went conspicuously amiss in 2020. Arriving in time for a series opener between the Royals and Twins, we strolled into Kauffman Stadium on a gorgeous Friday night. After grabbing a couple of local beers, we found our way to our seats with the first inning already underway. Once we sat down, Matt Shoemaker had already given up three runs. By the end of the inning, that total would be nine. Like the Twins season as a whole, this game was really never competitive. In fact, it was at times kind of embarrassing (particularly while in hostile territory!). But you know what? I still enjoyed the hell out of it. The surrounding fans were never mean-spirited or contentious. We were all just happy to be back at the ballpark. While I very much want the Twins to get back to playing better baseball next year, the more immediate concern is whether (and when) they'll be playing baseball at all. Which brings us back to this whole lockout business. Things remain stagnant on the CBA front, as expected. Negotiations are understandably set aside during the Christmas and New Year's stretch. But once we've rung in 2022, the vibe will quickly change. Suddenly, the scheduled start of spring training is only six weeks away, with dozens of free agents unsigned, and Minnesota among many teams whose needs are largely unaddressed. Going forward, dear journal, I suspect these missives will grow more urgent and less forgiving. But for the time being, I'll happily put my energy toward celebrating the end of a weird year, and embracing my deep gratitude for everything it brought back. View full article

Dear journal, It's been 21 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. Despite a total lack of news or activity from the realm of MLB, Twins fans are finding ways to generate lively discussion and spirited debate. Here in the holiday season, I find it rather heartwarming. Like the Whos of Whoville singing and celebrating in defiance of the greedy Grinch. On the latest episode of the Gleeman and Geek podcast, Aaron and John lamented the Twins' lack of significant action before the lockout. They were echoing the sentiments of fans far and wide, who are underwhelmed by the club's lack of urgency and glaringly incomplete current product. I know I found myself nodding along. Inspired by that conversation, I wrote up a blog post examining the front office's mindset and rationale. We're all frustrated with what appears to be a major missed opportunity at the high end of the free agent market. I wanted to understand why. The best theory I can come up with, which I outlined, is that the Twins are seeking to maintain maximum flexibility with a long list of pitching prospects who are about ready for a shot in the big leagues. The pipeline this regime has been building and cultivating for half a decade is ready to start producing, and they want to see what they've got. They need to, in fact. That's not to say they are done. The Twins will have work to do when things fire back up, and no one denies it. But I do see some logic in the reluctance to pursue expensive multi-year deals for veteran starting pitchers. That article sparked a lot of good discourse, with nearly 100 comments nesting beneath. Beyond the enjoyable chatter with Twins fans on TD and Twitter, I've had other tangentially baseball-related diversions to lean on this past week. Seeing our friend, and MLB.com Twins beat writer, Do-Hyoung Park compete on Monday's episode of Jeopardy! was an absolute thrill. He made us all proud by giving the dominant Amy Schneider a run for her money. Speaking of Twins writers, I had a chance to grab beers with John Bonnes and Dan Hayes the other night, which led to plenty of jokes, laughs, and diatribes over baseball and beyond. Chatting with Dan served as a stark reminder that – while I might be bored and annoyed by the lockout drama as a fan – it's a whole different level when your entire job is dedicated to covering a shuttered team. For me, the stoppage has been mostly unnoticeable, in part because of the above diversions and in part because MLB tends to be very quiet in the latter half of December anyway. We'll see how long the remains true, because we still seem to have a long road ahead. It sounds like the league and union don't even intend to start getting into the meat for their negotiations until after the new year. Tension and discontent will likely start rising around that time. But right now, 'tis the season for none of that. And so I wish a warm Christmas and holiday season to you, journal, along with anyone who might be reading. View full article

Exactly this! I picked the AL Central because, well, that's the division the Twins are trying to win, and the teams they compete against most frequently. But I also picked it because those teams operate on somewhat similar financial footing. It is utterly irrelevant to say "Look, the Yankees/Dodgers/Astros signed a big free agent pitcher, why don't the Twins??" Those teams operate in a completely different context. So many people act like throwing money at free agent pitching is some surefire path to contention or getting over the hump. From my view there is just no real evidence of this being true, at least for a team like the Twins.

That sure is a long-winded way of not answering the question!

The goalposts haven't shifted. The plan has always been to develop pitching as a means to success. The Twins rebuilt their infrastructure around that philosophy. They made outside-the-box coaching and front office hires. Falvey was hired away from Cleveland on this basis, and he was always going to be judged ultimately on the merits of his pitching development system. The goalposts are the same. I don't know why you act like this is such a radical idea. When was the last time an AL Central champion was propelled in any significant way by a big free agent starting pitcher? Serious question. As for the bit about "rationalizing sitting out an offseason and wasting a year," this is is what I'd call moving the goalposts. No one is out here defending the notion of sitting out the rest of the offseason and making no more significant additions. And that isn't going to happen. The article is specifically addressing the team's choice to bypass the top tier of free agent starting pitching.

I wasn't specifying them? When I say "You can't treat their development cycle like a typical 24/25 year old's" I meant typical as in pre-2020. The same applies to any minor-leaguer. 25 is the new 23, if you will,

I don't think that's a fair way to look at it. They missed an entire minor-league season and then had to try to build back up the following year. You can't treat their development cycle like a typical 24/25 year old's. I do think that point underscores the urgency of getting them looks in the near future, however. The widespread injuries, to me, are the foreboding concern. But you've gotta believe some of these guys will see their lack turn around on that front after last summer. And I wonder how many of the IL trips/shutdowns were the result of extreme caution, given the circumstances.

The offseason is not over folks! Not even close. Just want to make sure we're all aware of that.

Fair points. I didn't really mean to frame it as a 1:1 comparison, more so just an example of a Twins team that's been able to overcome low expectations and compete with a young rotation. But your final statement is hard to deny. If some of these young pitchers catch on and the team contends, we may look back and wish the front office did more. (That said, I still fully expect multiple significant pitching additions before the season.)

They were basically all injured, and/or trying to build their stamina back up after the lost season. That's kind of the underlying point in this post ... the lost season in 2020 was hugely disruptive to prospect development so last year was basically spent getting everyone back on track. That's why the coming season feels pivotal. Now it's go time.

There's been a lot of frustration expressed over the Twins and their unwillingness to spend on free agent pitching. I share that frustration. I'm not going to defend it here. I'm just going to try and explain the likely reasoning behind it. Aaron Gleeman penned a great piece for The Athletic last week addressing the team's hesitance to spend on pitching. This has been a trend for years, and now has become a glaring oddity, given the severe need for rotation help. Unless they sign Carlos Rodón (unlikely), it is clear the Twins have actively decided to bow out of the high-end free agent pitching market this offseason. They had money in hand, and yet they let every frontline type fall off the board, with no signs of serious pursuit. Why? Part of it undoubtedly ties to a fundamental aversion to risk, but I think there are deeper strategic underpinnings. When you look at the organization's pitching pipeline, and the number of MLB-ready arms that need to be evaluated, it becomes a bit easier to understand the desire for extreme flexibility. A pipeline ready to pay off It's no secret: this front office was brought in to develop pitching. That was Cleveland's specialization when Derek Falvey was there, and it's been a calling card of successful mid-market organizations over the years. There seems to be a sense that Falvey has fallen short in this regard, but we're judging an incomplete picture. Realistically it takes around five years or so to draft-and-develop a pitcher. This regime had a minor-league season wiped out by COVID in their fourth. When you look at the proliferation of intriguing arms in the system that are approaching MLB-readiness, the plan appears to be on track following a jarring disruption. All of these pitching prospects could feasibly be listed with an ETA of 2022: Jordan Balazovic, RHP (23 next season) Jhoan Duran, RHP (24) Josh Winder, RHP (25) Cole Sands, RHP (24) Chris Vallimont, RHP (25) Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP (21) Drew Strotman, RHP (25) Matt Canterino, RHP (24) Louie Varland, RHP (24) When I say these are "interesting" pitching prospects, I don't mean, "These are guys with raw stuff who could put up numbers if they figure things out." They've all put up numbers. In some cases, ridiculous numbers. Most of them have reached the high minors, and nearly all are at an age where good prospects tend to take the big-league step. Are the Twins viewing 2022 as a season to fully evaluate the quality of these pitchers and assess the strategy they've been developing for half a decade? It seems that way to me. What to expect after the lockout If this theory is correct, it doesn't mean the Twins are going to stand idly and let Dylan Bundy be their only pitching addition. None of the prospects mentioned above will be ready to go out of the gates, barring an unforeseen spring development. But it does mean they'll likely continue to avoid larger investments in pitchers, and the commitments those entail. I wouldn't be surprised to see them sign one or two of the better mid-tier starters remaining – say, Zack Greinke or Michael Pineda – and then round out the staff with a bunch of hybrid starter/reliever types who can contribute bulk innings while offering some upside. I outlined what a model might look like in practice back in early November. This model would be ideal for gradually bringing along young rookie starters in a controlled setting. You're not asking them to go out and throw six innings every fifth day, which none are physically built up to do. You're simply asking them to let loose and impact games. Maybe even win some games. Is this a "rebuild"? Falvey has bristled at the notion his team is headed for a rebuild in 2022. "I'm not using that word," he told reporters. Is he off base? Even if the approach I've put forth above is accurate, I think it's fair to steer away from such a characterization. "Rebuild" implies having no real aspiration to contend, but rather starting anew with a long-term scope. The Twins aren't starting anew. They're sticking with the rebuilding plan that's already been in place throughout this front office's tenure. These internally-developed arms were always going to the hold the key to Falvey and Thad Levine's vision for a sustainable winner. It's time to get a gauge on the validity of that vision. A prototype to follow Looking back through franchise history, we can find a pretty decent parallel for what a youthful takeover of the rotation could look like: the 2008 season. That season, too, had the makings of a rebuild on the surface. Minnesota traded Johan Santana for prospects during the previous offseason, while letting Torii Hunter walk. They didn't go out and make any big moves in free agency. The rotation ended up being led by Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Glen Perkins. Of those four, only Baker had more than 100 innings of major-league experience coming into the campaign. All were between 24 and 26 years old. Ironically, the biggest misstep by the front office that year was signing Liván Hernández under the pretense that this young group of starters needed a veteran leader. Hernández posted a 5.48 ERA over 23 starts before being cut in August to make room for Francisco Liriano – another young starter who rounded out the youth-led rotation. That youth-led rotation proved very capable. The Twins came within a game of a postseason berth, thanks in part to a solid offense led by a pair of MVP contenders in Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. The 2022 Twins offense, led by Byron Buxon, Jorge Polanco and others, will have a chance to win if they get any help from the pitching. Why can't that help come primarily from the internal pipeline? It's happened before. A learning year Despite my efforts here to understand and justify the front office's lack of aggressiveness on the pitching market, I can't deny that the youth movement plan is a long shot. For every example like the 2008 Twins, there are plenty more where inexperience doomed a young rotation. But I'd argue that even in that scenario, the coming season can be a valuable one. They can throw numerous guys into the fire, take stock of what they've got, and assess their needs going forward more accurately. Ideally, they'll add at least one more moderately good free agent starter and another impact arm via trade, so as to improve their odds and lessen the total reliance on unknowns. But as a general course of action, I don't hate the idea of letting the pipeline produce. It's not the start of a rebuild. It's the summation of a rebuild that was initiated six years ago when Falvey and Levine first took over. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

There's a limit on the number of MLB coaches you can have in the dugout & in uniform, but no limit on total coaching staff size. The Giants took advantage of this last year and it seems as though the Twins (and others) are trying to follow suit. I'm not exactly sure which guys listed in the article won't be suiting up but my guess would be Hernandez, Ramirez, Diaz, Dahmann.

Dear journal, It's been 14 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. The first half of December has come and gone with no Winter Meetings, no Rule 5 draft, no significant league activity of any kind really. But we're not entirely without news to analyze. With a lack of high-profile developments taking place, fans make do with what we have. There's little choice but to overthink and obsess over the small morsels of news that trickle out amidst an ongoing labor stoppage. For instance, while the major-league phase of the Rule 5 draft didn't happen, there was a minor-league phase last week. The Twins gained no one, and lost outfielder Gabriel Maciel to Oakland. Under normal circumstances, I would pay very little mind to this loss. Maciel wasn't among Twins Daily's top 30 prospects in the latest rankings, and he is coming off a really underwhelming season in which he slashed .238/.311/.311 over 73 games at Single-A as a 22-year-old. Then again, under normal circumstances, I'd have other things to occupy my mind. In the absence of any MLB player movements, or even rumors of such, this is all I've got. And so I find myself spending an inordinate amount of time thinking about Gabriel Maciel. The outfielder came to the Twins at the 2018 trade deadline, in a package for Eduardo Escobar that also included Jhoan Duran and Ernie De La Trinidad. The latter turns 26 in January and looks to be org filler more or less, but Duran is the one who can make that trade look like a slam-dunk win for the Twins. Maciel always felt like a longshot – the second fiddle CF prospect behind Gilberto Celestino, who was acquired from Houston during the same deadline sell-off. Will the Twins rue the day they let Maciel get away? What do the Athletics see in him that compelled them to select him and add him to their Triple-A roster mix? How does his departure impact the organization's dwindling outfield depth? The answers are fairly mundane. 1: Probably not. 2: He's a center fielder who can run, and there's really no risk. 3: Minimally. Nothing to see here. And yet, it's all we have to see right now, so I can't stop looking. There is at least one Twins-related distraction to pull away our collective gaze. The club rounded out its coaching staff on Friday, announcing two new additions – first base coach Hank Conger and assistant pitching coach Luis Ramirez – to bring the unit to 11 members. Conger comes aboard as the new first base coach, moving Tommy Watkins across the diamond. Supplanted third base coach Tony Diaz is now the assistant bench coach behind Jayce Tingler. Here's how it maps out, with new hitting coach David Popkins also in the fold: Manager: Rocco Baldelli Bench Coach: Jayce Tingler Pitching Coach: Wes Johnson Hitting Coach: David Popkins Assistant Hitting Coach: Rudy Hernandez Assistant Pitching Coach: Luis Ramirez Assistant Bench Coach (Infield Instructor): Tony Diaz First Base Coach (Catching Instructor): Hank Conger Third Base Coach (Outfield Instructor): Tommy Watkins Bullpen Coach: Pete Maki Quality Control Coach: Nate Dammann Conger is an especially interesting add from my view, mainly because I'm so familiar with him from his playing days, which weren't long ago. He's still only 33, and was an active MLB player as recently as 2016. He'll be able to relate to current players on an especially authentic level, which was seemingly a strength of Jeremy Hefner. The year before Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office, Conger was in Houston backing up Jason Castro, who ended up being the new regime's first free agent signing in the following offseason. There's a fun bit of symmetry. A former first-round pick and top prospect, Conger played in the 2010 Futures Game alongside several notable names Mike Trout, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Ben Revere, Anthony Slama (!). Conger was selected by the Angels in the first round of the 2006 draft – five picks after the Twins took Chris Parmelee. Man, that was a wild draft. Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer were taken within five picks of each other, but the first overall pick was Luke Hochevar. These stream-of-conscious musings and research wormholes keep my baseball mind engaged for the time being, and for that I'm grateful. I know it'll only grow tougher over time as the lockout drags on and the little bits of news that trigger these musings dry up. View full article

I'm not sure how signing Kevin Pillar or Odubel Herrera to be a fourth OF impedes anyone's development. Especially because part of the development plan, IMO, should involve entrenching Kirilloff at 1B and trading Kepler. They're not taking development time away from anyone by signing another OF, just like they're not blocking paths for pitching prospects by signing a couple more starters. There will be plenty of chances for everyone who deserves them in a long injury-riddled MLB season. When's the last time a good Twins prospect was "blocked"?

Well if you go this route, "not planning to contend" sorta becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. You want really want Celestino as Buxton's top backup heading into the season? Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Larnach did not show he was ready. I don't see the downside in signing someone like Dickerson to at least buy some development time. I can understand why people would be averse to throwing money at the big names near the top of this list (even I am, I think), but I'm unsure why anyone would be opposed to targeting those on the lower half. Even if Kirilloff, Buxton and Kepler are all OF starters on Opening Day, there's a severe lack of proven MLB-quality depth behind them at present.

Correct. But the Twins are currently at about $90M in committed payroll for 2022 and they haven't spent less than ~$120M since 2017, the first year this front office took over. So I'm going to hope/assume they're looking to take advantage of their flexibility and improve the roster. The idea here is to explore some different ways they could do so.

The problem is that basically all the top free agent starters and shortstops have signed already. Meanwhile the Twins are still almost 50M short of their 2021 budget. How are they going to spend that money? Throwing it at free agent relievers would be very ill-advised, IMO.