Nick Nelson

Plus, I'm convinced Joe's legs weren't totally right at the beginning of the season, and that they've gained strength over time. Since he sort of hit his stride (which I unscientifically peg as May 18, when he hit two doubles against Milwaukee) he's got 10 doubles and four homers over 40 games. That's about a 40 double, 15 HR full-season pace. Perfectly respectable power – maybe MVP caliber if attached to an elite batting average and OBP.

Aiding this theory: in 2009 Mauer had 28 homers and 30 doubles, while in 2010 he had 9 homers and 43 doubles. He essentially swapped 19 homers for 13 doubles, which – when you add in the tougher ballpark and knee problems that cropped up – is a much more logical explanation to me than PEDs. It's not like his power just disappeared the next year; 43 doubles is elite.

Whoa. Did this thread just reach enlightenment?

A lot of that depends on how he finishes the year, too. Right now that horrible month of April is still inflating his numbers. If he keeps pitching the way he is now for two more months, it will be a lot easier to envision some team offering him a three-year deal. Keep in mind he's still only 28.

Right. I took pains to emphasize in the article that none of this is remotely likely. But as John pointed out, the opportunity is still there. Looking back at that 2003 team, they went from 7.5 GB at the All-Star break to winning the division by four games. That's an 11.5 game swing. Granted, they had to pass two teams and not four, and they were better than this current group, but really they weren't all that different. One great starter (Santana) supported by a bunch of meh (Radke was second on that team in ERA at 4.49), a good bullpen and a capable offense with a couple stars. Just some food for thought that I find more pleasant than dwelling on the obvious negatives associated with this club.

You'd think the image of a shooting star in the post would be indicative of my level of faith that this would to happen, but apparently not for some folks...

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?783-Ten-Second-Half-Storylines

Last night I posted an article musing about what it might take for the Twins to get back into the AL Central race in the second half. It was mostly the stuff of pipe dreams, naturally, since the club would need to play .650-plus baseball and leapfrog four teams, requiring an historically unprecedented turnaround. Nevertheless, it was a fun escape from the painful realities of a lost season. (At least for those who were willing to play along.) Even accepting those realities, there will be plenty of intriguing storylines for fans to follow in the final months of this 2012 season. Here are a few: 1) Joe Mauer chases another batting title.[ATTACH=CONFIG]1522[/ATTACH] With a .326 average that ranks him fourth in the AL, Mauer is in line to make a run at his fourth career batting title. Signs are pointing in a positive direction now, as he's hit .377 since the start of June, but can he stay healthy and productive through the end of September? If so, it will have a hugely positive impact on his future outlook. 2) Ben Revere too? Don't look now, but Revere is hitting .316 and he's only a few weeks of regular ABs away from qualifying for the batting title. Having both him and Mauer in the mix would be a lot of fun for Twins fans. 3) Justin Morneau searches for his previous form. The first baseman remains under contract for next season and would be tough to trade. If he can show some signs of life against lefties (which he has seemingly started to do as of late) it would create hope that he might have another big campaign left in him next year. 4) Can Scott Diamond keep shining? There was a temptation to pass off Diamond's early success as a fluke, but with each outstanding start he turns in, that stance grows more difficult to hold. Clearly he's not a good bet to maintain a sub-3 ERA in the long-term, but if the southpaw keeps pitching well it's possible he could be viewed as the club's No. 2 starter entering next season. (Whether that's a good or bad thing is debatable.) 5) Trades, trades, trades. Most likely the Twins will be selling off assets come late July. In fact, given the number of deals we've seen this team complete after the non-waiver deadline in recent years, we may well see some trading in August. Who will be moved? And what kind of hauls will Terry Ryan be able to bring back? 6) Prospects on the rise. Several of the organization's top prospects will find themselves in the spotlight here in the final months. Will Byron Buxton show impressive signs in his pro debut? How many homers can Miguel Sano – who's currently at 18 – pile up? Can Aaron Hicks continue his turnaround in New Britain (his OPS is up over .800)? Will Joe Benson banish his nightmarish first half from memory and get back in position to compete for an MLB outfield job next year? Can recovering Kyle Gibson pitch his way back to the big-leagues for a September call-up? 7) Trevor Plouffe's long ball total. If the slugging third baseman stays healthy and maintains his first-half home run rate, he'll finish with around 40 bombs. If he's able to reach that figure, Plouffe will become the only Twin to do so other than Harmon Killebrew. That's weird to type. (Of course, Josh Willingham also has a shot at 40 homers but that's just not nearly as weird to think about.) 8) Spoiling the Sox. Even if the Twins can't fight their way back into contention, they'll still have plenty of chances to help derail the rival White Sox, who currently sit in first place. Minnesota and Chicago have 12 match-ups remaining – plenty of chances to foil the plans of these bitter rivals. 9) Dozier's development. As I've written in the past, the Twins badly need Dozier to establish himself as a serviceable major-league starter, because their short-term depth in the middle infield is brutal. He's actually been better lately, with a .321 average in July, but his plate discipline and defense remain suspect and absolutely must improve. 10) Francisco Liriano's impact on the race. It seems highly unlikely he'll be doing it here, but Liriano will probably be a factor in the AL postseason picture. Contenders are sure to take a significant interest, considering his 3.63 ERA and dazzling strikeout rate since the start of May, and the Twins have little reason not to deal the impending free agent. Acquiring him will be a major risk/reward proposition for any team with championship aspirations, but I'll enjoy watching the situation unfold from the outside. What storylines will you be tracking in the second half?

Playing at a .662 clip over half a season does not indicate "an historically-good 107-win team" – it indicates a team that had a very good half-season. And the Twins have done that repeatedly in the past. As you'll see in an article coming up on Friday, the Twins have had a .600+ winning percentage after the break FIVE times in Gardenhire's 10-year managerial tenure, including .645+ three times. (In 2003 they played .667 ball after the break. Was that a "historically good team" in your mind?) Those were all somewhat flawed teams – thus the reason they all dug themselves into holes that required a second-half surge to overcome. I'm not saying this team is capable of going .650 from here on out but you're exaggerating the magnitude of the feat. We're talking about 77 games.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?782-What-Would-It-Take-To-Come-Back

Here at the All-Star break, the Twins find themselves 11 games out of first place, with a record 13 games below .500. The most likely scenario is that they sell off their assets within the next couple weeks and coast to a forgettable finish near the bottom of the division. But just what would it take for the Twins to surge back to the top of the division here in the second half? Anyone would have to admit that it's still possible, if extremely improbable. We've seen this team make up some significant deficits after the break in years past under Ron Gardenhire. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1518[/ATTACH] Below, I've listed out a few things that, in my mind, would have to happen for the Twins to pull off their greatest turnaround yet. Feel free to add your own thoughts in the comments section. (And, please, no "It's not going to happen" responses. The unlikelihood is obvious.) 1) Come out of the break on fire. The trade deadline is only two weeks away, and with a double-digit deficit in the standings, the front office will have no choice but to sell. Without the likes of Francisco Liriano and others, they team will be dead in the water. If, however, the Twins can rattle off a bunch of wins in short order – including dominating key series against the White Sox and Indians – Terry Ryan may be compelled to keep the gang together and see what they can do. 2) Dominate the division. I hinted at this above, but the Twins would really need to lay the hammer down on divisional opponents. They're 11 games behind and trailing four different clubs, so with 77 games remaining there is little margin for error. They probably can't afford to lose a single series against Chicago, Detroit or Cleveland. 3) The White Sox must fall. Quietly, the Sox have turned into one of baseball's finest teams. Their 47-38 record ranks as sixth best in the majors, and they've been on a tear lately winning 11 of their last 15. If Chicago wins 90-some games, the Twins won't be catching them. Similarly, the Twins need the Tigers and Indians to remain lukewarm in the final months. 4) Starting pitching must lead the way. Shockingly, the Twins got three good starts against an offensive powerhouse in Texas heading into the break. Yet, their starters still own the worst ERA in the American League. Minnesota will need to win at a .650+ clip from here on out to have a chance; they simply won't be doing that without vastly improved starting pitching. 5) The bullpen can't slip up. It seems we might already be seeing some signs of the bullpen's heavy workload over the first half catching up. Given the aforementioned slim margin for error, the Twins can't really afford to let late leads slip away like they did in Texas over the weekend.

There's no way this year's team will be remotely as bad as last year's in the second half. Absolutely no way. Even if they sell off a bunch of pieces.

Probably a couple B prospects. No one's going to give up a premier asset for two months of a guy as unpredictable as him.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?774-Scorecard-Excerpt-Post-Break-Bursts

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1496[/ATTACH]If you're not familiar with the Twins' Official Scorecard, you should be. It's sold at the program stands near the entrances to Target Field, and it's only one buck. How many things can you buy at the ballgame for a dollar? Aside from providing the necessary tools for a scorekeeper to do his/her thing, the scorecard also includes content that changes for each series. Even if I didn't happen to be the guy supplying that content all year, I'd highly recommend picking up a copy each time you make it out to the park. It may be the best value at Target Field. Below you'll find an excerpt from the Twins' side of the next coming scorecard, which will be available during the Athletics series when action resumes after the All-Star break. ~~~ Post-Break Bursts When the Twins have made the playoffs under Ron Gardenhire, it has – without fail – been the result of an excellent second-half. Below you’ll find a comparative list of Minnesota’s annual pre-break and post-break records during Gardy’s tenure. The thing that sticks out is that every playoff team (2002, ‘03, ‘04, ‘06, ‘09, ‘10) was characterized by major second-half improvement. The collective post-break winning percentage of those teams is .623; for non-playoff teams, it’s .433. In order to climb back into contention, this current club will need to play well over .600 over the final months. But then, they’ve made a habit of that. Twins Pre-Break and Post-Break W/L Under Gardenhire [TABLE] Year Pre-Break W% Post-Break W% 2011 41-48 .461 22-51 .301 2010 46-42 .523 48-26 .649 2009 45-44 .506 42-32 .568 2008 53-42 .558 35-33 .515 2007 45-43 .511 34-40 .459 2006 47-39 .547 49-27 .645 2005 48-38 .558 35-41 .461 2004 47-40 .540 45-30 .600 2003 44-49 .473 46-23 .667 2002 50-39 .562 44-28 .611 [/TABLE]

[attachment=4852:906.attach][I]If you're not familiar with the Twins' Official $1 Scorecard, you should be. It's sold at the program stands near the entrances to Target Field, and it's only one buck. How many things can you buy at the ballgame for a dollar? Aside from providing the necessary tools for a scorekeeper to do his/her thing, the scorecard also includes content that changes for each series. Even if I didn't happen to be the guy supplying that content this year, I'd highly recommend picking up a copy each time you make it out to the park. It may be the best value at Target Field. Below you'll find an excerpt from the Twins' side of the next coming scorecard, which will be available during the Athletics series when action resumes after the All-Star break.[/I] [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] [CENTER]~~~ [B]Post-Break Bursts[/B] [/CENTER] When the Twins have made the playoffs under Ron Gardenhire, it has – without fail – been the result of an excellent second-half. Below you’ll find a comparative list of Minnesota’s annual pre-break and post-break records during Gardy’s tenure. The thing that sticks out is that every playoff team (2002, ‘03, ‘04, ‘06, ‘09, ‘10) was characterized by major second-half improvement. The collective post-break winning percentage of those teams is .623; for non-playoff teams, it’s .433. In order to climb back into contention, this current club will need to play well over .600 over the final months. But then, they’ve made a habit of that. [CENTER][B]Twins Pre-Break and Post-Break W/L Under Gardenhire[/B] [/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Year[/TD] [TD]Pre-Break[/TD] [TD]W%[/TD] [TD]Post-Break[/TD] [TD]W%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]41-48[/TD] [TD].461[/TD] [TD]22-51[/TD] [TD].301[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2010[/TD] [TD]46-42[/TD] [TD].523[/TD] [TD]48-26[/TD] [TD].649[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2009[/TD] [TD]45-44[/TD] [TD].506[/TD] [TD]42-32[/TD] [TD].568[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2008[/TD] [TD]53-42[/TD] [TD].558[/TD] [TD]35-33[/TD] [TD].515[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2007[/TD] [TD]45-43[/TD] [TD].511[/TD] [TD]34-40[/TD] [TD].459[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2006[/TD] [TD]47-39[/TD] [TD].547[/TD] [TD]49-27[/TD] [TD].645[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2005[/TD] [TD]48-38[/TD] [TD].558[/TD] [TD]35-41[/TD] [TD].461[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2004[/TD] [TD]47-40[/TD] [TD].540[/TD] [TD]45-30[/TD] [TD].600[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2003[/TD] [TD]44-49[/TD] [TD].473[/TD] [TD]46-23[/TD] [TD].667[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2002[/TD] [TD]50-39[/TD] [TD].562[/TD] [TD]44-28[/TD] [TD].611[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] View full article

An embarrassment of riches.

He took a ridiculously wide turn around third base – think that killed him.

Just miserably bad base running from the Twins, thrown out twice in a row at home. If the catcher is blocking the plate, RAIL HIM. These guys could take a few lessons from Pierzynski.