Nick Nelson

I live 10-15 miles from the stadium -- around here the rain has let up and the skies aren't looking too ominous. Hope they can get the game in. This has been a fun series so far.

There's no doubt that pitchers like Blackburn and Silva walk a slippery slope (then again, so does basically every non-star pitcher in the majors). Doesn't mean they're incapable of being valuable players. In 2008 and 2009, Blackburn was a solid No. 3/4, and he also had some huge performances in big games ('08 tiebreaker, '09 playoffs). Even in 2010 and 2011 when his overall results were ugly, he had some great stretches when he was locked in. Can he get back to the level he was at prior to these last couple years? I don't know. I worry that his arm surgeries over the past couple offseasons may have permanently changed him for the worse, because his command this year has been pretty bad and as James notes he's not the kind of guy who can survive with a 3.5 BB/9 rate. But I think some Twins fans get so fed up with the club's commitment to strike-throwing, pitch-to-contact starters that they want to believe that approach can't yield successful results. It can, and when these pitchers are going good they can rack up lots of innings thanks to their efficiency. Blackburn in 08/09 and Silva in three of his four years with the Twins are good examples.

A guy with a Game of Thrones username posting Eminem lyrics clearly knows the way to my heart...

I'm less interested in his FIP and more interested in what he did on the field. He was very solid in 2008 and 2009 and a big reason those pitching-light teams were contenders.

His profile in the low minors (great control without bat-missing stuff) is typically indicative of someone who's going to struggle in Double-A and Triple-A, so his success thus far as a 22-year-old in New Britain is extremely encouraging. He's not a heavy GB guy so I'm not sure if he's going to have a sustainable model for success in the majors, but he's interesting to follow especially as a semi-local kid.

Indeed. The back end of the Twins' bullpen has actually proven to be quite solid, so if Oliveros can carry over the improved control from the minors and start blowing people away in the majors with his mid-90s heat, he'll give Gardy the kind of depth that is lacking when he has to go to guys like Gray and Manship in the seventh inning.

Then your standards are pretty ridiculous. In 08/09 Blackburn averaged 200 IP with a 106 ERA+. He was a solidly above-average innings-eater and without question the Twins' most valuable starter over that span. Granted, he was basically playing at the maximum end of his potential so there was little upside in buying out his team control years, but that shouldn't cause you to dismiss his success in the first two years of his career.

I tend to think it's mostly been about injuries up until this point. Every spell of horrible performance in his MLB career until now has been followed up by arm surgery. I wrote about that over the winter: http://twinsfanatnicks.blogspot.com/2012/01/is-nick-blackburn-undervalued.html. This year's struggles have been perplexing. Haven't heard about any health problems but his command has been uncharacteristically shoddy. Unfortunately, right now the Twins don't really have any choice but to let him ride it out and hope for the best.

Here's a fun tool for answering that question (and any other question you might have about this year's lineup trends): http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2012-batting-orders.shtml

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1222[/ATTACH]It would be nice if the Twins kept up their recent winning pace through late July, climbing back into the AL Central picture after being left for dead in May. Unfortunately, their lack of starting pitching makes that difficult to realistically envision. In the more likely event that the Twins are firmly out of contention when the trade deadline rolls around, they'll find themselves in an unfamiliar position. Only once in the past decade has the club behaved as a seller at the deadline; in 2007, seven games out in the AL Central, they traded Luis Castillo and his remaining salary to the Mets for two prospects. Even then they were confident that the heir apparent Alexi Casilla could step in and replace Castillo's modest production. If the Twins' current 8.5-game deficit in the standings hasn't shrunk significantly within a month, most would agree that it will be time to see what kind of value they can get for their movable assets. But who should they be looking to deal? The most obvious candidates are the guys in the final years of their contracts – such as Matt Capps, Ryan Doumit and Carl Pavano – but none are likely to make a large impact for a contender so it's doubtful any GM is going to give up much for two months of service. The best the Twins can hope for by trading these players would be payroll relief and a B-prospect. Quality players with team-friendly contracts extending past this year – such as Denard Span and Josh Willingham – may do more to entice bidders, but the stakes are raised. In trading players with long-term value, returning good prospects is a must. Given the organization's spotty track record evaluating players from other teams in recent years, one can't help but worry about that a little. As I look over the roster, I see one player who could become an appealing, fungible trading chip at the deadline: Francisco Liriano. He's almost surely gone after this year, so shipping him out would be a no-brainer in a seller scenario. His current 1-7 record and 6.45 ERA aren't going to blow anyone away but opposing clubs might be more inclined to focus on his numbers since a bullpen demotion in early May: 25 IP, 3.24 ERA, 32-to-13 K/BB, .198 opponents' batting average, zero homers allowed. If the inconsistent lefty can maintain his improved production from the past month over the next month, he may actually become a legitimate commodity as the deadline looms, giving the Twins leverage that they probably won't have with any of the other walk-year players. It's something to root for even if the usual June winning spell comes to an end.

Do the Twins trade Valencia at the deadline? And do they get more for him than they got for, say, Delmon?

That would be awesome. I'm just not sure they have the pitching to pull it off.

It's called "analysis" Travis. That's what I do here.

I don't consider anyone to be off limits, per se, but I am admittedly a little nervous about the front office's ability to bring back sufficient talent in a trade. Dealing away a one-year guy like Capps or Doumit carries little downside, but when you're talking about getting rid of a quality player under contract for multiple years at a reasonable price, the pressure to bring back useful pieces increases dramatically. Considering their talent evaluation in recent years, can we trust the Twins to make a Span trade worthwhile?

The Twins' bullpen outlook really isn't bad. Lots of intriguing young relief arms in the system -- plenty to inspire confidence that a few will emerge as MLB late-inning guys. If only the pipeline for starters were as flush.

A more recent comp would be Joe Crede, circa 2003-2006, with (significantly) less defensive value. Over those four seasons, before back problems ruined his career, Crede hit .260/.308/.454 and averaged 23 homers. He was 25 years old at the start of that window; Plouffe is 25 now. Without the fantastic glovework, Plouffe will never be as valuable, but those kinds of numbers seem attainable and would make him a better player than anyone the Twins have trotted out at third in quite a while. Also: what happens with Valencia? Plouffe seems like he's on the way to locking up the hot corner.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1198[/ATTACH]The circumstances and details have differed, but so far the course of this Twins season has very closely mirrored the last one. In both instances, the club looked strong coming out of spring training before being derailed by injuries and poor performance over the first two months, digging a deep early hole. When June came around last year, the Twins suddenly turned things around, taking advantage of weaker competition and rattling off victories (17 out of 19 at one point) to make a run at the .500 mark, which seemed like an unthinkable feat when they finished May at 19 games under. They kept playing well into July, creating some ambiguity as to their status as buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, but then the wheels came off completely in August and September. Staying consistent with last year's storyline, the 2012 Twins have turned things around here as weather has heated up and the schedule has softened. They've won four straight series and six of their last eight; prior to this stretch they had won only two of their last 24 series dating back to last year. It's been a stark turnaround, much like the one we saw around this time last summer when the Twins posted a .654 June winning percentage compared to .338 over the rest of the campaign. That sudden spell of success created a lot of hope, which came crashing down in a nightmarish final third of the season. In light of these parallels, fans are now wondering whether the team's current improvement is legitimate or another painful mirage. Fortunately, there are plenty of indications that a similarly dramatic drop-off is not on the horizon. It starts at the core. Whereas last year Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were never quite right, both are healthy and playing at an extremely high level right now. Since May 16th (when Morneau returned from the disabled list) Mauer is hitting .356 with six doubles and two of his three home runs; Morneau has 11 extra-base hits – including six homers – and is averaging an RBI per game. The rest of the lineup has contributed around those two. Josh Willingham has of course been fantastic. Denard Span and Ben Revere have formed a dynamic and effective table-setting force at the top of the lineup. Trevor Plouffe has eight homers in his last 18 games and is starting to look like an actual major-league third baseman. There are tons of positives on offense, and as long as most people stay healthy that unit should remain in good shape. Pitching is another story. There have certainly been some positives there as well, but even those carry major caveats. (When will the bad Frankie return? When will Scott Diamond's bubble burst?) Absolutely we should expect better from the rotation over the rest of the campaign – a 6-plus ERA was probably never sustainable – but it seems highly unlikely that this flawed group of starters can do enough to turn this three-week run of success into a three-month run, which is what the Twins would need to crawl back into contention after an abysmal start. The offense is good, but not good enough to overcome a below-average pitching staff and win at a .600-plus clip the rest of the way? Hard to see. Of course, most realists aren't expecting that. Most are just hoping for solid, watchable baseball as opposed to the ugly mess that we were exposed to in April and the first half of May. And if the Twins really do want to surpass expectations and make a statement, there's no time like the present. Their next six games are at home, their next 12 are against the National League (which they have historically dominated) and they'll follow that up with 11 straight against teams ahead of them in the AL Central.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1162[/ATTACH]On Thursday afternoon, R.A. Dickey tossed 7 1/3 innings of shutout ball for the Mets in a win over the first-place Nationals. The victory moved the knuckleballer's record to 9-1 on the year and lowered his ERA to 2.44. Holding opponents to a .225 average and sporting a dazzling 78-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 81 innings, Dickey has to be considered a Cy Young front-runner in the National League, and he might start the All-Star Game. This is the best we've ever seen from the 37-year-old right-hander, but his effectiveness is nothing new. During his first two seasons with the Mets after joining up in 2010, he posted a 3.08 ERA over 383 innings. This after spending most of the first 14 years of his career struggling to stay in the majors. That included a stop in Minnesota – his last stop before turning into a steady rotation anchor for the Mets. Dickey is one of the most fascinating stories in today's game, for various reasons. He's a born-again Christian and philanthropist. He doesn't have an ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow, yet still managed to be come a first-round draft pick in 1996. He recently climbed Mt. Kiliminjaro, along with his friend (and local media punching bag) Kevin Slowey. He also recently published a book in which he bravely details, among other things, his battle to overcome sexual abuse as a child. As a human interest story subject, you won't find many better. And the tale of Dickey's baseball career holds plenty of intrigue too. After failing to find much success as a conventional starter in his first decade as a pro, he became a full-time knuckleballer in 2006 with the Rangers. The process of completely overhauling his style as a pitcher, and learning to master a pitch that few in the sport's history have been able to effectively harness, was slow and fraught with turbulence. In his first start for Texas in '06, he gave up six home runs. The Rangers quickly bailed on the experiment, but clearly there were plenty of clubs that saw something in Dickey. He went through stints in the Milwaukee and Seattle organizations before latching on with the Twins in 2009. Pitching coach Rick Anderson spoke excitedly about the acquisition that year: These are all attributes that have helped Dickey become a force in the Mets rotation, and the Twins deserve credit for recognizing them at the time. They also may deserve criticism for failing to move him along. Was it a bad coaching approach that kept the righty from turning the corner in Minnesota? Was it the decision to use him almost exclusively as a reliever rather than have him start? Or should the Twins have simply been more patient and given him additional time to harness the knuckler and refine his command, instead of dropping him after one forgettable season? I'm not sure there are any lessons to be taken from this situation. Dickey is a unique case. And while it's unfortunate that he couldn't find this success with the Twins, he's still a fun guy to root for, and along with his co-ace Johan Santana he makes it easy for fans in Minnesota to get behind the underdog Mets in the NL East.