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Everything posted by Nick Nelson
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The Minnesotan, Golden Gopher alum and baseball fan inside me all want to see Cole DeVries succeed in a Twins uniform. The analyst inside me knows that he probably won't. DeVries is a great story. He was signed by the Twins as an undrafted free agent back in 2006 after a solid career at the University of Minnesota, and has gradually worked his way up the organizational ladder. On Tuesday, the 27-year-old was called up to the majors to fill Jason Marquis' vacant roster spot. He'll make his big-league debut on Thursday in a start against the White Sox. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The soft-tossing right-hander's minor-league track record is far from spectacular. In six seasons, he has gone 32-42 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He has proven extremely hittable in the high minors, allowing 413 hits in 366 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. That's an average of 10.2 H/9 – not exactly a change of pace for a Twins team that currently leads the American League in hits allowed. DeVries hangs in the mid-80s with his velocity and has largely survived by peppering the strike zone, especially this year as he's issued only seven walks in 46 2/3 innings for Rochester. MLB hitters are likely to tee off on his brand of soft serve, so I suspect his stay in the Twins' rotation will be short. Nevertheless, it's cool to see him get a chance to pitch on the big stage and perhaps – like Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters before him – he can catch an unfamiliar league by surprise and conjure up some good results for a desperate staff.
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I don't think anyone believes it will be "easy," the question is whether or not it's doable. I think you'd have to agree that his transition to first base was essentially seamless. Haven't seen him misplay many balls there despite his lack of previous experience playing the infield.
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I'm pretty sure Oswalt will be garbage if/when he comes back to pitch. There's a reason he didn't get signed during the offseason.
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Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball and he's basically the same size as Mauer. Maybe an inch or two shorter.
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And I think that his nearly flawless transition to first base lends credence to the idea that Mauer could probably pick up third and become an asset there. He's got quick reflexes and a great arm. Granted, there are lot of distinct intricacies to playing third base that he would need to learn and adjust to, but he's got excellent baseball instincts so I tend to think he'd surprise some people.
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No surprise here, but the Twins have reportedly designated Jason Marquis for assignment after the veteran was tagged by the Brewers for eight runs while recording only five outs on Sunday. Marquis has never been a particularly good pitcher and I certainly wasn't high on his signing at the time, but I wouldn't have guessed he'd be the worst starter in baseball. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]From the moment he showed up to spring training, Marquis had nothing; he struggled to get the ball over the plate and when he did hitters went to town. As Parker pointed out on Twitter, the veteran ranked last in the majors in FIP, HR/9, swinging strike rate and first-pitch strike rate. Marquis' dismissal was more than warranted, but it opens yet another hole to plug in the rotation. There a number of replacement options, yet none are overly appealing. Anthony Swarzak has been working long relief and could be stretched out quickly, but he's best suited for where he's at. The same goes for Brian Duensing, who really seems to have found his calling as a lefty specialist. The Twins may consider recalling Liam Hendriks, who was demoted to Triple-A after posting a 9.00 ERA in four starts for Minnesota but has allowed only four runs on 10 hits in three turns since returning to Rochester. It's not uncommon for a young starter to get knocked around then head down to the minors to make some tweaks, returning later in the season with greater confidence (Kevin Slowey in 2007 is a good example). Another option would be Cole DeVries, a 27-year-old right-hander who's been moderately successful in Triple-A. Although he's a nice story as a local guy from Eden Prairie, I don't think DeVries is a likely candidate to succeed in the majors as he's a soft-tosser with a 1.41 career WHIP in Triple-A. But perhaps the Twins feel differently. Personally, I'd be in favor of adding Anthony Slama – who has struck out 20 batters over 11 2/3 scoreless innings in his past 10 appearances at Triple-A, where his ERA sits at 0.45 – to the 40-man roster and getting him up in the bullpen, sliding either Swarzak or Duensing into the starting corps. It's not ideal, but "ideal" has pretty much flown out the window at this point. At least Swarzak and Duensing are reasonably good bets to hold their own as a No. 5 starter and the Twins could finally get an extended look at what they have in Slama. What move(s) would you make in the aftermath of the Marquis news?
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Marquis Out. Who Should Replace Him?
Nick Nelson commented on Nick Nelson's blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
[ATTACH=CONFIG]1004[/ATTACH]No surprise here, but the Twins have reportedly designated Jason Marquis for assignment after the veteran was tagged by the Brewers for eight runs while recording only five outs on Sunday. Marquis has never been a particularly good pitcher and I certainly wasn't high on his signing at the time, but I wouldn't have guessed he'd be the worst starter in baseball. From the moment he showed up to spring training, Marquis had nothing; he struggled to get the ball over the plate and when he did hitters went to town. As Parker pointed out on Twitter, the veteran ranked last in the majors in FIP, HR/9, swinging strike rate and first-pitch strike rate. Marquis' dismissal was more than warranted, but it opens yet another hole to plug in the rotation. There a number of replacement options, yet none are overly appealing. Anthony Swarzak has been working long relief and could be stretched out quickly, but he's best suited for where he's at. The same goes for Brian Duensing, who really seems to have found his calling as a lefty specialist. The Twins may consider recalling Liam Hendriks, who was demoted to Triple-A after posting a 9.00 ERA in four starts for Minnesota but has allowed only four runs on 10 hits in three turns since returning to Rochester. It's not uncommon for a young starter to get knocked around then head down to the minors to make some tweaks, returning later in the season with greater confidence (Kevin Slowey in 2007 is a good example). Another option would be Cole DeVries, a 27-year-old right-hander who's been moderately successful in Triple-A. Although he's a nice story as a local guy from Eden Prairie, I don't think DeVries is a likely candidate to succeed in the majors as he's a soft-tosser with a 1.41 career WHIP in Triple-A. But perhaps the Twins feel differently. Personally, I'd be in favor of adding Anthony Slama – who has struck out 20 batters over 11 2/3 scoreless innings in his past 10 appearances at Triple-A, where his ERA sits at 0.45 – to the 40-man roster and getting him up in the bullpen, sliding either Swarzak or Duensing into the starting corps. It's not ideal, but "ideal" has pretty much flown out the window at this point. At least Swarzak and Duensing are reasonably good bets to hold their own as a No. 5 starter and the Twins could finally get an extended look at what they have in Slama. What move(s) would you make in the aftermath of the Marquis news? -
I'd probably have Mauer catching only around half the games, alternating at 1B/DH with Morneau the rest of the time. So then Willingham splits between DH/LF, while Revere starts like 2-3 days a week in left and maybe occasionally starts in RF against a tough righty. Is there any downside to working Mauer out at 3B at this point? They have nobody who can play there and in a lost season you can stomach the growing pains.
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I say let Plouffe play regularly in right, move Willingham to DH and start Revere in left. To me, that's the smartest way they can proceed with the personnel they have. Might as well get good long looks at Plouffe and Revere this year.
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Too bad the Twins didn't sign Bedard instead of Marquis during the offseason.
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Whoa, I like Slama but that's a little bit ridiculous. Burton has a track record of prolonged success in the majors when healthy, and right now he certainly appears to be healthy. He's a quality reliever and a great find. Hard to claim that the guy is lucky when he's striking out 27 percent of opponents.
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Slama in his last 10 appearances for Rochester: 11.2 IP, 0 R, 6 H, 5 BB, 20 K.
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I personally believe DeVries will get crushed in the majors. I'd just as soon recall Hendriks since he's already on the 40-man and he's pitched very well since going down to Rochester.
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Someone mentioned the lack of preparation for starting pitchers. I'm also irked by the lack of adjustments being made. With all these guys struggling, you'd think at least one of them would be able to turn it around with some help from the pitching coach, but we're seeing no meaningful improvements from Liriano, or Blackburn, or Marquis. Hendriks seemed to have no plan on the mound. I wonder if a change in guidance for the pitching staff would help.
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You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?554-Changing-Luck
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Back in February, I framed the Twins' rotation as a series of five coin flips. Looking back, it's funny how the worst case scenario seems to have struck in every single situation: The Twins seem to have flipped tails five times in a row. Ouch. Granted, there were a number of warning signs attached to each of these guys, which is why I dubbed them "dangerous gambles," but it would have taken an unruly pessimist to predict that things would go so horribly awry for the rotation. Fans are rightfully frustrated with the lackluster outings delivered by Twins starters on an almost nightly basis, and much of the heat is being directed toward the front office. I think this is a little unfair. Blackburn and Liriano were both on fire in spring training, so their quick descents into the regular season have been surprising. Baker's elbow couldn't have been handled much differently. Marquis has at least been serviceable when healthy for the majority of his career – this is likely the worst he's ever pitched. And Liam Hendriks looked like a solid enough fallback, given his domination of the minor leagues. Nothing has worked, for any of those guys. Front to back, the starting corps has been a catastrophe. Baker had a cascade of bad news regarding his elbow, resulting in the likely end to his Twins career. Liriano has been demoted to the bullpen, Hendriks to the minors. Blackburn has been placed on the disabled list for reasons that may have as much to do with performance as health. Marquis may be on the verge of getting cut. The only member of the rotation that has performed about as you'd expect is Pavano, and he's done so while throwing 85 MPH with a sore shoulder. Altogether, the Twins' starters have been getting battered around like a bunch of marginal minor-leaguers. Ironically, the only guys who have been able to break the spell of ineptitude are a couple of marginal minor-leaguers. Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters are not noteworthy prospects. They were pretty far back in line to receive major-league starts back when camp broke, but things have spiraled so quickly it took them only until mid-May to get a shot. And to their credit, both have taken advantage in a way that nobody in front of them on the depth chart has been able to. Diamond blanked opponents for seven innings in two consecutive outings after being called up last week. Walters tossed six innings of one-run ball on Saturday and took a tough loss, then beat the Tigers in their own park with 6 1/3 strong innings on Thursday. Together, the two have combined for four quality starts in four turns; the rest of the Twins' starters have produced seven quality starts in 34 tries. I've never seen anything quite like it. An entire stable of veteran starters with track records of major-league success pitching abysmally, and then two guys from the bottom of the depth chart coming up and setting the example. To what can we attribute this strange turn of events? Opponents haven't had the chance to fully scout Diamond and Walters – that might be part of it. But mostly I think it's just the law of averages. The Twins have had so many bad breaks, so many awful performances, so many inexplicable miscues, that eventually a few things had to start going their way. I believe what we've seen in the Twins' respectable 5-5 run over the past 10 games is a team's luck finally – FINALLY – starting to swing. Rather than getting dud outings from guys with high expectations, they're getting great outings from guys with no expectations. Rather than folding in tough spots, the relievers are coming through (Glen Perkins in the eighth Thursday serving as a prime example). Rather than continuing to struggle in his return from injury, Justin Morneau is swatting the ball. Rather than being placed on the DL at the last second, Ryan Doumit is being pulled off it at the last second. And rather than losing night after night, the Twins are starting to win a few. Let's hope it keeps up. [ATTACH=CONFIG]979[/ATTACH]
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Back in February, I framed the Twins' rotation as a series of five coin flips. Looking back, it's funny how the worst case scenario seems to have struck in every single situation: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins seem to have flipped tails five times in a row. Ouch. Granted, there were a number of warning signs attached to each of these guys, which is why I dubbed them "dangerous gambles," but it would have taken an unruly pessimist to predict that things would go so horribly awry for the rotation. Fans are rightfully frustrated with the lackluster outings delivered by Twins starters on an almost nightly basis, and much of the heat is being directed toward the front office. I think this is a little unfair. Blackburn and Liriano were both on fire in spring training, so their quick descents into the regular season have been surprising. Baker's elbow couldn't have been handled much differently. Marquis has at least been serviceable when healthy for the majority of his career – this is likely the worst he's ever pitched. And Liam Hendriks looked like a solid enough fallback, given his domination of the minor leagues. Nothing has worked, for any of those guys. Front to back, the starting corps has been a catastrophe. Baker had a cascade of bad news regarding his elbow, resulting in the likely end to his Twins career. Liriano has been demoted to the bullpen, Hendriks to the minors. Blackburn has been placed on the disabled list for reasons that may have as much to do with performance as health. Marquis may be on the verge of getting cut. The only member of the rotation that has performed about as you'd expect is Pavano, and he's done so while throwing 85 MPH with a sore shoulder. Altogether, the Twins' starters have been getting battered around like a bunch of marginal minor-leaguers. Ironically, the only guys who have been able to break the spell of ineptitude are a couple of marginal minor-leaguers. Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters are not noteworthy prospects. They were pretty far back in line to receive major-league starts back when camp broke, but things have spiraled so quickly it took them only until mid-May to get a shot. And to their credit, both have taken advantage in a way that nobody in front of them on the depth chart has been able to. Diamond blanked opponents for seven innings in two consecutive outings after being called up last week. Walters tossed six innings of one-run ball on Saturday and took a tough loss, then beat the Tigers in their own park with 6 1/3 strong innings on Thursday. Together, the two have combined for four quality starts in four turns; the rest of the Twins' starters have produced seven quality starts in 34 tries. I've never seen anything quite like it. An entire stable of veteran starters with track records of major-league success pitching abysmally, and then two guys from the bottom of the depth chart coming up and setting the example. To what can we attribute this strange turn of events? Opponents haven't had the chance to fully scout Diamond and Walters – that might be part of it. But mostly I think it's just the law of averages. The Twins have had so many bad breaks, so many awful performances, so many inexplicable miscues, that eventually a few things had to start going their way. I believe what we've seen in the Twins' respectable 5-5 run over the past 10 games is a team's luck finally – FINALLY – starting to swing. Rather than getting dud outings from guys with high expectations, they're getting great outings from guys with no expectations. Rather than folding in tough spots, the relievers are coming through (Glen Perkins in the eighth Thursday serving as a prime example). Rather than continuing to struggle in his return from injury, Justin Morneau is swatting the ball. Rather than being placed on the DL at the last second, Ryan Doumit is being pulled off it at the last second. And rather than losing night after night, the Twins are starting to win a few. Let's hope it keeps up.
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With the newly instated slot caps, there's not as much room for going over budget. I think you could pretty accurately predict what they'll spend by looking at the picks they have and the respective limits.
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Zero Runs -It's the PINE TREES
Nick Nelson commented on strumdatjag's blog entry in Blog strumdatjag
There actually have been quite a few more homers hit at Target Field since the trees were removed. Hasn't positively impacted the team's play though, clearly. -
Bark's Lounge "Signing Out"
Nick Nelson commented on Bark's Lounge's blog entry in Blog Bark's Lounge
Sorry to lose you. I enjoyed reading your viewpoints. -
Article: Is Mauer Breaking Down?
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Eh... No shortage of things to talk about. Just wish they weren't so depressing. -
Article: Is Mauer Breaking Down?
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I dunno. Some weirdo.

