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Everything posted by Nick Nelson
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Article: Twins Should Hit Waivers For Pitching Help
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Exactly. Not every pickup has to be the one that turns around the franchise. The focus should be on improving your overall talent -- to whatever degree -- with each move. Incremental upgrades. -
Game 12 - Twins @ Yankees -4/18/12
Nick Nelson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Archived Game Threads
Nice lefty-heavy lineup to take on Kuroda, who was awfully good his last time out. -
Article: Twins Should Hit Waivers For Pitching Help
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To be fair, I'm not sure Bowden will actually hit waivers. Boston might find a trade partner before they need to expose him. But the specific examples are less important than the overall strategy. -
After watching their lineup get decimated by injuries last season, the Twins were hoping they'd have better luck keeping position players healthy in the new campaign. So far, so good in that regard. There have been no broken bones, no bilateral leg weakness, no reemergence of concussion symptoms. Unfortunately, pitching has been a different story. The Twins lost Joel Zumaya, their projected top right-handed setup option, and Scott Baker, their potential No. 1 starter, before either threw a pitch in the regular season. Nick Blackburn will miss at least his next start due to shoulder soreness and Glen Perkins has been shut down temporarily due to a strained forearm. These injuries are especially unfortunate in that they are hitting players at the top of the depth chart rather than the bottom.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Baker, Zumaya, Perkins and Blackburn are established MLB talents that the Twins were counting on to carry weight on a questionable staff. Attempting to fill holes with the same marginal pitchers who were rejected during spring training isn't likely to pay dividends. Instead, the Twins should take advantage of an opportunity afforded to them by their status as a retooling American League cellar-dweller. Up until the end of April, waiver claim priority is dictated by last year's records, meaning that the Twins get first dibs on any player waived by an AL club. At the beginning of May, the waiver order determinant flips over to this year's records, but the Twins should remain near the top of the list at that point unless they start rattling off wins over the next couple weeks. This is an auxiliary benefit of Minnesota's excessive losing in 2011 and early in 2012 that should not be overlooked. At this point in the season, many intriguing names tend to pass through the waiver wire as teams make early roster adjustments. There simply aren't many pitchers on the Twins' staff that Terry Ryan should be unwilling to expose to waivers if it means making room for a young hurler with some upside. Two such examples that have been discussed on the Twins Daily forum recently are Rich Thompson of the Angels and Michael Bowden of the Red Sox. Thompson, 27, is a right-hander who posted a 3.00 ERA and 9.33 K/9 rate for Los Angeles last year, though a decrease in velocity this spring contributed to his being designated for assignment. Bowden is only 25 and was a Baseball America Top 100 prospect in three consecutive seasons from 2007-09. These are just two examples of players with more ability than numerous members of Minnesota's current staff, and there are bound to be more hitting the wire in the coming weeks. The Twins certainly aren't in a position to be looking for short-term bullpen fixes, but if they can bring in a young player with a chance to fill a need for years to come, that would be a big win.
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Twins Should Hit Waivers For Pitching Help
Nick Nelson commented on Nick Nelson's blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
After watching their lineup get decimated by injuries last season, the Twins were hoping they'd have better luck keeping position players healthy in the new campaign. So far, so good in that regard. There have been no broken bones, no bilateral leg weakness, no reemergence of concussion symptoms. Unfortunately, pitching has been a different story. The Twins lost Joel Zumaya, their projected top right-handed setup option, and Scott Baker, their potential No. 1 starter, before either threw a pitch in the regular season. Nick Blackburn will miss at least his next start due to shoulder soreness and Glen Perkins has been shut down temporarily due to a strained forearm. These injuries are especially unfortunate in that they are hitting players at the top of the depth chart rather than the bottom. Baker, Zumaya, Perkins and Blackburn are established MLB talents that the Twins were counting on to carry weight on a questionable staff. Attempting to fill holes with the same marginal pitchers who were rejected during spring training isn't likely to pay dividends. Instead, the Twins should take advantage of an opportunity afforded to them by their status as a retooling American League cellar-dweller. Up until the end of April, waiver claim priority is dictated by last year's records, meaning that the Twins get first dibs on any player waived by an AL club. At the beginning of May, the waiver order determinant flips over to this year's records, but the Twins should remain near the top of the list at that point unless they start rattling off wins over the next couple weeks. This is an auxiliary benefit of Minnesota's excessive losing in 2011 and early in 2012 that should not be overlooked. At this point in the season, many intriguing names tend to pass through the waiver wire as teams make early roster adjustments. [ATTACH=CONFIG]652[/ATTACH]There simply aren't many pitchers on the Twins' staff that Terry Ryan should be unwilling to expose to waivers if it means making room for a young hurler with some upside. Two such examples that have been discussed on the Twins Daily forum recently are Rich Thompson of the Angels and Michael Bowden of the Red Sox. Thompson, 27, is a right-hander who posted a 3.00 ERA and 9.33 K/9 rate for Los Angeles last year, though a decrease in velocity this spring contributed to his being designated for assignment. Bowden is only 25 and was a Baseball America Top 100 prospect in three consecutive seasons from 2007-09. These are just two examples of players with more ability than numerous members of Minnesota's current staff, and there are bound to be more hitting the wire in the coming weeks. The Twins certainly aren't in a position to be looking for short-term bullpen fixes, but if they can bring in a young player with a chance to fill a need for years to come, that would be a big win. -
Good read. Right on the money.
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Article: Offense Lagging Along With M&M Boys
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Hey, just a clear sign that they read the site, right? -
Bowden would seriously bolster the Twins' pitching depth, especially if they were willing to work him out as a starter.
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Ben Revere has been optioned to rochester
Nick Nelson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Have you ever blamed a player for his own shortcomings rather than his coaches/manager? It's clear that you have a drastic misunderstanding of the impact of hitting & pitching coaches. Revere has been the same hitter in the majors as he was in the minors; the problem is that it's tough to be an offensive weapon when you swing away and lack the strength to hit the ball out of the infield on a regular basis. -
Of course, this is the same thought process that led the team to pick up Dusty Hughes. That worked out nicely. Rich Thompson is definitely the kind of guy the Twins can be targeting. Still young enough to be a long-term asset. Mystifying that the Angels would let him loose if he's healthy.
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Offense Lagging Along With M&M Boys
Nick Nelson commented on Nick Nelson's blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
[ATTACH=CONFIG]642[/ATTACH]Pat Borzi of MinnPost wrote a column last week suggesting that the current iteration of the Twins lacks heart. He drew a comparison to the 2002 team, which was being celebrated during the opening series at Target Field, stating that it's "hard to imagine this roster, especially the younger players, clawing and scrapping like their counterparts from 10 years ago." I don't know about all that, but I would say this team has been suffering from the absence of the heart of its lineup, as the No. 3 and 4 hitters have been largely invisible early in the season. Last Thursday's game was one that harkened back to the good old days, with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau both homering and carrying the team to victory. Not coincidentally, it was by far the best day the Twins have had offensively. Outside of that game, however, Mauer and Morneau are a combined 12-for-57 (.211) with two extra-base hits in eight contests. There are a number of reasons that the Twins have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their nine games, but the silence from the M&M boys stands out distinctly. The lineup needs those two producing in order to function, and thus far neither player has done much of anything (other than staying on the field) to quell the concerns that surrounded them entering the campaign. Mauer's plate approach has been fine, as he's been taking good at-bats and drawing walks, but that was also true last year. Outside of his home run last Thursday he hasn't been hitting the ball with authority. One of the most troubling underlying trends in his disappointing 2011 campaign was a career-high 55.4 percent grounder rate (and an accompanying career-low 21.5 percent fly ball rate); he's now put over 60 percent of balls in play in the dirt this year after grounding out in both of his non-walk plate appearances Sunday (including his league-leading fourth GIDP). It's too early to draw definitive conclusions but thus far Mauer is exhibiting the same flaws that principally contributed to a .355 slugging percentage last season. This raises concern that he either: A) isn't as strong and healthy as we'd like to believe, or has fundamentally changed as a hitter. I don't know which would be worse. Mauer could still be a decent hitter with the elevated grounder rate but he won't be a game-changing offensive force and he'll continue to kill rallies with frequent twin killings. Hopefully as the season progresses he can start lifting the ball more frequently. Morneau's issues at the plate have been more worrisome, because unlike Mauer he's looked flat-out overmatched. After fanning in three of his four at-bats on Sunday, the designated hitter has 10 strikeouts against two walks in 37 plate appearances. That's a whiff rate of 27 percent -- a sizable uptick from his 15 percent career rate. The main problem is that Morneau has been far too aggressive. He's swinging at 41.5 percent of pitches outside of the zone (career rate: 33.6 percent) and 55.4 percent of all pitches (career rate: 47.5 percent). When he's going good, Morneau patiently works the count to his favor and capitalizes on mistakes. Too often this year he's been falling into holes and chasing pitchers' pitches. The Canadian can still crush the ball when he makes good contact, as demonstrated by his two doubles in Baltimore and his prodigious blast to right field on Thursday, but his pitch recognition and reactions are not up to snuff. These were noticeable deficiencies for him last April as well, and unfortunately injuries cropped up and took a toll before he had much chance to prove that he could overcome them. The hope is that Morneau's lack of sharpness at the plate is more attributable to rust – due to playing irregularly since his July 2010 concussion – rather than the injury itself. If he can stay healthy and on the field we'll see how the quality of his at-bats improves. Personally, I get the sense that Morneau tends to get in his own head and that bad swings are stewing while he sits on the bench, causing him to press. I'll be interested to see if playing in the field, which he'll apparently start doing this week, helps his approach. It's too early to panic with either of these players, but up to this point they haven't really shown signs that they're ready to reverse course after dismal 2011 campaigns. It would be awfully nice if they could begin doing so this week in New York. The Twins aren't going to win many games if they're not scoring runs in bunches, and this offense is going to have a tough time finding a pulse with the two players who comprise the heart of the lineup flatlining. -
Pat Borzi of MinnPost wrote a column last week suggesting that the current iteration of the Twins lacks heart. He drew a comparison to the 2002 team, which was being celebrated during the opening series at Target Field, stating that it's "hard to imagine this roster, especially the younger players, clawing and scrapping like their counterparts from 10 years ago." I don't know about all that, but I would say this team has been suffering from the absence of the heart of its lineup, as the No. 3 and 4 hitters have been largely invisible early in the season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Last Thursday's game was one that harkened back to the good old days, with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau both homering and carrying the team to victory. Not coincidentally, it was by far the best day the Twins have had offensively. Outside of that game, however, Mauer and Morneau are a combined 12-for-57 (.211) with two extra-base hits in eight contests. There are a number of reasons that the Twins have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their nine games, but the silence from the M&M boys stands out distinctly. The lineup needs those two producing in order to function, and thus far neither player has done much of anything (other than staying on the field) to quell the concerns that surrounded them entering the campaign. Mauer's plate approach has been fine, as he's been taking good at-bats and drawing walks, but that was also true last year. Outside of his home run last Thursday he hasn't been hitting the ball with authority. One of the most troubling underlying trends in his disappointing 2011 campaign was a career-high 55.4 percent grounder rate (and an accompanying career-low 21.5 percent fly ball rate); he's now put over 60 percent of balls in play in the dirt this year after grounding out in both of his non-walk plate appearances Sunday (including his league-leading fourth GIDP). It's too early to draw definitive conclusions but thus far Mauer is exhibiting the same flaws that principally contributed to a .355 slugging percentage last season. This raises concern that he either: A) isn't as strong and healthy as we'd like to believe, or has fundamentally changed as a hitter. I don't know which would be worse. Mauer could still be a decent hitter with the elevated grounder rate but he won't be a game-changing offensive force and he'll continue to kill rallies with frequent twin killings. Hopefully as the season progresses he can start lifting the ball more frequently. Morneau's issues at the plate have been more worrisome, because unlike Mauer he's looked flat-out overmatched. After fanning in three of his four at-bats on Sunday, the designated hitter has 10 strikeouts against two walks in 37 plate appearances. That's a whiff rate of 27 percent -- a sizable uptick from his 15 percent career rate. The main problem is that Morneau has been far too aggressive. He's swinging at 41.5 percent of pitches outside of the zone (career rate: 33.6 percent) and 55.4 percent of all pitches (career rate: 47.5 percent). When he's going good, Morneau patiently works the count to his favor and capitalizes on mistakes. Too often this year he's been falling into holes and chasing pitchers' pitches. The Canadian can still crush the ball when he makes good contact, as demonstrated by his two doubles in Baltimore and his prodigious blast to right field on Thursday, but his pitch recognition and reactions are not up to snuff. These were noticeable deficiencies for him last April as well, and unfortunately injuries cropped up and took a toll before he had much chance to prove that he could overcome them. The hope is that Morneau's lack of sharpness at the plate is more attributable to rust – due to playing irregularly since his July 2010 concussion – rather than the injury itself. If he can stay healthy and on the field we'll see how the quality of his at-bats improves. Personally, I get the sense that Morneau tends to get in his own head and that bad swings are stewing while he sits on the bench, causing him to press. I'll be interested to see if playing in the field, which he'll apparently start doing this week, helps his approach. It's too early to panic with either of these players, but up to this point they haven't really shown signs that they're ready to reverse course after dismal 2011 campaigns. It would be awfully nice if they could begin doing so this week in New York. The Twins aren't going to win many games if they're not scoring runs in bunches, and this offense is going to have a tough time finding a pulse with the two players who comprise the heart of the lineup flatlining.
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Why tonight's performance by Swarzak is important.
Nick Nelson replied to Thrylos's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'd rather see Gray sent down than Burnett, personally. I also don't think Swarzak's start tonight should have much bearing on the rotation picture -- opening should be Hendriks' to lose. -
Game 5 - Twins vs Angels - 4/11/12
Nick Nelson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Archived Game Threads
Quality lead-off AB from Span, even if ball four looked like a strike. -
Who do you want to see replace Baker?
Nick Nelson replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think it'll be Hendriks, who actually could hold his own, albeit not at a Baker level. The problem is that the next guy in line is now Swarzak or Maloney or Diamond. This could get ugly in a hurry when another starter inevitably needs to miss time. -
Welcome aboard. I don't really see what Allen brings to the table. He's like Parmelee without the (supposed) upside.
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Article: A look at the new-look Nick Blackburn
Nick Nelson replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If Blackburn stays healthy, I'm confident he'll be – at the very least – serviceable. Injuries have derailed him the past couple years. One thing that his stats don't really capture is his willingness to throw hard inside, and the positive effect that has on his game. Makes hitters uncomfortable. -
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?421-Offense-a-Secondary-Concern
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I wasn't in attendance at Monday's home opener, but by all accounts Target Field was mostly lifeless during a 5-1 snoozer that dropped the home team to 0-4 on the season. Through four games, the Twins have scored six runs and haven't held a lead at any point. The brutal start is making it tough for fans to generate any kind of enthusiasm following a 99-loss campaign in which this type of dreadful play was all too common. It's easy to overreact in situations such as this – consider that four games is but 1/40th of the total schedule and the Twins could conceivably be back at .500 by the end of the week – but no one shoudl be blamed for feeling a sense of alarm. After all, the Twins have been soundly defeated four straight times and we haven't even seen any of their true weaknesses tested. We haven't seen Carl Pavano offer his mid-80s arsenal to a high-powered lineup. We haven't seen this patchwork bullpen try to protect a slim lead. We haven't seen these fielders forced to make tough, heady plays with a game on the line. The offense, widely considered the club's strongest unit entering the season, has been abysmal through these first four games, preventing the Twins from even having a chance to compete. The good news is that it's not going to last. Eventually the lineup is going to awaken and start producing enough to take some leads. Will the pitching staff be able to protect those leads on a consistent basis, though? That's where the uncertainty truly lies on this roster. It's easy to lose sight of it with the bats in an ongoing slumber, but run prevention is the greatest long-term challenge for the Twins this year. Pitching hasn't lost the Twins any games thus far. It hasn't had a chance to. Once the offense picks up (which it surely will, at least to some degree) we'll see whether these hurlers – and the defenders behind them – can answer the call and do what it takes to get on the winning track and make fans forget about this season-opening slump. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little scared to find out. [ATTACH=CONFIG]572[/ATTACH]

