Nick Nelson

Last year, the rotation was an utter disaster, with Twins starters ranking 26th in the majors in ERA and WHIP. Short outings taxed an already ill-equipped bullpen and frequently put games out of reach before the offense had much of a say. It's not hard to see why these pitchers struggled so badly. Beyond injuries that hindered performance, the starting corps posted a lower strikeout rate than any other AL club; allowing that much contact in front of a substandard defense led to a league-worst 1,086 hits allowed. The front office didn't focus much on adding reinforcements during the offseason, signing only one new player who figures to be the fifth starter. Instead, they'll rely on improved health, effectiveness and accountability from the incumbents. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Carl Pavano 2011 Stats: 222 IP, 9-13, 4.30 ERA, 102/40 K/BB, 1.36 WHIP While he's technically the team's No. 1 starter since he'll pitch on Opening Day, Pavano hardly fits the profile of a staff ace. At age 36, he is what he is; a veteran strike-thrower with a mature approach and an extremely hittable fastball. The best you can realistically hope for from Pavano is around 200 innings of serviceable performance. That's not without value, but it's also not what you want matching up against the top starters for contending clubs. Francisco Liriano 2011 Stats: 134.1 IP, 9-10, 5.09 ERA, 112/75 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The mercurial left-hander has been alternately dazzling and maddening over the years and is a perennial spring wild card. If he's on his game he completely changes the complexion of the Twins' rotation, providing a legitimate front-end talent to change the pace for a group that generally survives on sleekness rather than stuff. Following an abysmal 2011 campaign, Liriano has shown plenty of positive signs this spring, coming to camp in shape and delivering a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 18 innings while showing improved velocity and command. Of course, until the season gets underway, we won't really know which Frankie we're dealing with. Nick Blackburn 2011 Stats: 148.1 IP, 7-10, 4.49 ERA, 76/54 K/BB, 1.60 WHIP Last year marked the second consecutive season in which Blackburn pitched well enough early on but battled forearm issues, watched his performance deteriorate as the summer progressed and required arm surgery in the fall. His most recent procedure was more significant, and the hope is that it will finally enable him to return to the level of productivity that made him a solid mid-rotation innings-eater back in 2008 and 2009. Like Liriano, Blackburn is enjoying an excellent spring (1.50 ERA in three starts) and is actually missing more bats than we're accustomed to seeing. That all bodes well, but the right-hander needs to prove that he can keep his arm intact all year. Scott Baker 2011 Stats: 134.2 IP, 8-6, 3.14 ERA, 123/32 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP With the rest of the starters scuffling along, Baker enjoyed a career year in 2011, standing out from the contact-heavy staff by averaging 8.2 whiffs per nine. That mark would've ranked him among the league leaders if he had enough innings to qualify, which he of course did not as arm problems limited the righty to 24 frames after the All-Star break. It was the second straight season in which he's been slowed by elbow soreness, and the issue has already reemerged this spring, feeding the belief that he won't be ready for the start of the year. If Baker can't go, it seems likely that either Anthony Swarzak or Liam Hendriks would occupy his spot in the rotation. Those are decent enough fill-ins, capable of Kevin Slowey type production, but either would represent a sizable drop-off from Baker in his element. Jason Marquis 2011 Stats: 132 IP, 8-6, 4.43 ERA, 76/43 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The lone newcomer in this year's starting pitching equation, Marquis has a track record that screams "mediocre at best." Historically, he hasn't racked up many strikeouts and hasn't limited hits or walks particularly well. He's also spent his entire career in the more pitcher-friendly National League. The nice thing about the 33-year-old hurler is that if he can hang in there and keep his sinker over the plate, he gives the Twins a fourth rotation member (along with Pavano, Liriano and Blackburn) who tends to induce ground balls at a steady clip. Hopefully, this will reduce the number of drives landing in the gaps and over the fence at Target Field. Unfortunately, with Marquis looking beyond shaky in his early spring performances and currently away from the team indefinitely to tend to a serious family matter, he can't be counted on for much at this point.

Likely Starter: Ryan Doumit 2011 Stats: .303/.353/.477, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 17 R, 0/1 SB Potential Backups: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer No team has everything set in stone with two weeks left in spring training. For the Twins, with uncertainties surrounding several players, plenty is subject to change between now and Opening Day. For example, last week I profiled the three outfield spots, and over the weekend it was revealed that two of those positions will be filled by different players than previously thought. Designated hitter is a particularly difficult position to analyze at this point.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Ryan Doumit is expected to be the starter on April 6, and ideally he'll play there frequently so as to limit the exposure of his weak glove at various positions. Yet, his versatility was a big reason Doumit was signed, and there are a number of other players who figure to draw frequent starts at DH, making the position a likely revolving door. There was talk from Twins officials during the offseason that the club might slot Justin Morneau at DH often this year in order to protect his health. The fact that he's playing very little first base in Ft. Myers with the season rapidly approaching would seem to raise the likelihood of that possibility. For his part, Morneau downplays the significance and says he still plans on playing the field regularly. I suspect that if he's healthy, Morneau will spend a fair amount of time at time at designated hitter but will also play some first and will get plenty of days off. Doumit and Joe Mauer will likely be the other main contributors at DH. If Morneau and Mauer are swinging the way they're capable of and Doumit picks up where he left off last year, that gives the Twins three very solid hitters to rotate. If one of those three becomes unavailable, or if Mauer and Morneau are lucky enough to spend most of their time in the field, it's possible that guys like Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes could get some starts at DH. These guys all bring enough upside with the bat to justify the assignment. While the position may lack stability this season, that doesn't mean it won't be a strength. The Twins shouldn't have much trouble finding designated hitters who can hit. Predicted Hitting Line for Doumit: .275/.345/.415, 12 HR, 50 RBI

Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2011 Stats: .246/.332/.477, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 69 R, 4/5 SB Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni When he hasn't been needed elsewhere, Michael Cuddyer has spent most of the past six years roaming right field for the Twins. No player has spent more time in front of the big blue baggy and limestone overhang. Cuddyer was a fan favorite, a media darling and a community staple. He was also a productive player, putting up an .806 OPS while averaging 18 homers and 79 RBI during that six-year span. The notorious clubhouse magician pulled off a final disappearing act this winter, ending his 15-year tenure in the Twins organization to sign a lucrative contract with the Rockies. The man replacing Cuddy has his work cut out for him. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Josh Willingham ought to be up to the task. In fact, there's a good chance that he'll outperform Cuddyer. During the aforementioned six-year span, Willingham accumulated a superior .838 OPS while averaging 22 homers and 72 RBI. Last year he hit 29 bombs – a mark Cuddyer has topped only once – while playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. Willingham has been an extremely consistent middle-of-the-lineup slugger with more balanced splits than Cuddyer, who mashed lefties but often struggled against righties. The newly acquired outfielder also brings pure pull power, making him a better fit in Target Field than his predecessor. In his quest to provide the Twins with above-average production in right field, Willingham will face two key barriers: injuries and age. He's done a good job of avoiding major ailments, playing in more than 100 games every year since becoming a regular, but he's also missed an average of 34 per season. Unless Justin Morneau can bounce back in a big way, the Twins don't have another player who can pack the kind of pop that Willingham does, so they'll need him in the lineup. Willingham is also 33 years old, putting him past what is typically considered to be a player's physical prime. There are plenty of guys who remain productive well into their mid-30s and he looked plenty sharp last year, but this is an age where many begin to see their bat speed and athleticism decline. I suspect that age, injuries and an even tougher ballpark will take a toll on Willingham to some degree, but his track record is outstanding and he's a great fit in this lineup. It will be fun to see how many he can yank into the Home Run Porch at Target Field. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Willingham: .250/.340/.450, 20 HR, 75 RBI