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Nick Nelson

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Everything posted by Nick Nelson

  1. Good question. Parmelee has played the outfield a bit, and it sounds like the Twins have been giving Pearce some run at third base early in camp, so it's possible they could send all three to Triple-A and have them rotate between 1B/3B/DH/OF. I have to think the opportunity is ripe for Pearce or Bates to make the 25-man roster though, especially with the Morneau uncertainty and with Gardy talking about wanting to have some pinch-hitting weapons.
  2. You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?264-On-Tone-of-Writing
  3. The following are examples of comments we've received on blog posts over the past few days. The first came from Twins Daily member roger responding to my post earlier this week about the Zumaya injury: Is the new Twins Daily going to be another site where everyone 'bad mouths' everything Mr. Ryan and the organization does? Your site has only been around for a couple days and I for one am already tired of all the bitching! ... Last time I checked, spring training is less than a week old. Lets give management time to evaluate what they have before we all jump on the sky is falling bandwagon...please! The second came from StarTribune.com user "njc264isback" on Seth's bullpen article there today: Honestly can't read any entries from Stohs without asking myself, "I wonder how many times Seth will apply to work for the Twins?" This guy is trying so hard to get in with them, I wish they'd just hire him already so I didn't have to read his cheerleading and apologizing for them anymore. Look, I'm a huge fan of reader interaction and I value pretty much every comment received – even the ones I vehemently disagree with. But I hate comments like these ones. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] When you've got a multi-contributor site like Twins Daily, you're inherently going to get a wide array of viewpoints, perspectives and styles. Different writers take different approaches with their craft. Seth's a guy who nearly always writes with a positive slant and uses lots of exclamation points. I pride myself on being a straight-shooter who looks at things objectively despite being a lifelong fan. I like to examine matters critically and I'm not shy about voicing my disagreement when I think it's warranted (although I would absolutely challenge the notion that my writing is consistently negative; of my last three posts, one laid out a realistic blueprint for the Twins to contend and one concluded that this year's bench should be more well rounded than past iterations). Our tones are very different, but neither should be shunned. We'll tackle topics from our own – sometimes conflicting – unique angles, and so will John and Parker. That's the beauty of this site. Readers will have the opportunity to take in a multitude of different viewpoints and are encouraged to impact the conversation by sharing their own. Use Twins Daily however you like. Share your feedback. Contribute. Just please, please don't endlessly complain about the tone of certain writers being too positive or negative. That's not a path to constructive discussion. If you really can't handle reading a little well-evidenced optimism or thoughtful criticism, authors' names are very clearly displayed on the front page and it's easy to be selective about what you choose to read.
  4. The following are examples of comments we've received on blog posts over the past few days. The first came from Twins Daily member roger responding to my post earlier this week about the Zumaya injury: The second came from StarTribune.com user "njc264isback" on Seth's bullpen article there today: Look, I'm a huge fan of reader interaction and I value pretty much every comment received – even the ones I vehemently disagree with. But I hate comments like these ones. When you've got a multi-contributor site like Twins Daily, you're inherently going to get a wide array of viewpoints, perspectives and styles. Different writers take different approaches with their craft. Seth's a guy who nearly always writes with a positive slant and uses lots of exclamation points. I pride myself on being a straight-shooter who looks at things objectively despite being a lifelong fan. I like to examine matters critically and I'm not shy about voicing my disagreement when I think it's warranted (although I would absolutely challenge the notion that my writing is consistently negative; of my last three posts, one laid out a realistic blueprint for the Twins to contend and one concluded that this year's bench should be more well rounded than past iterations). Our tones are very different, but neither should be shunned. We'll tackle topics from our own – sometimes conflicting – unique angles, and so will John and Parker. That's the beauty of this site. Readers will have the opportunity to take in a multitude of different viewpoints and are encouraged to impact the conversation by sharing their own. Use this site however you like. Share your feedback. Contribute. Just please, please don't endlessly complain about the tone of certain writers being too positive or negative. If you really can't handle reading a little well-evidenced optimism or thoughtful criticism, authors' names are very clearly displayed on the front page and it's easy to be selective about what you choose to read.
  5. The following are examples of comments we've received on blog posts over the past few days. The first came from Twins Daily member roger responding to my post earlier this week about the Zumaya injury: The second came from StarTribune.com user "njc264isback" on Seth's bullpen article there today: Look, I'm a huge fan of reader interaction and I value pretty much every comment received – even the ones I vehemently disagree with. But I hate comments like these ones. When you've got a multi-contributor site like Twins Daily, you're inherently going to get a wide array of viewpoints, perspectives and styles. Different writers take different approaches with their craft. Seth's a guy who nearly always writes with a positive slant and uses lots of exclamation points. I pride myself on being a straight-shooter who looks at things objectively despite being a lifelong fan. I like to examine matters critically and I'm not shy about voicing my disagreement when I think it's warranted (although I would absolutely challenge the notion that my writing is consistently negative; of my last three posts, one laid out a realistic blueprint for the Twins to contend and one concluded that this year's bench should be more well rounded than past iterations). Our tones are very different, but neither should be shunned. We'll tackle topics from our own – sometimes conflicting – unique angles, and so will John and Parker. That's the beauty of this site. Readers will have the opportunity to take in a multitude of different viewpoints and are encouraged to impact the conversation by sharing their own. Use this site however you like. Share your feedback. Contribute. Just please, please don't endlessly complain about the tone of certain writers being too positive or negative. If you really can't handle reading a little well-evidenced optimism or thoughtful criticism, authors' names are very clearly displayed on the front page and it's easy to be selective about what you choose to read.
  6. Yes, it is possible and perhaps even probable that one or two guys from this bunch can emerge as legitimate middle relief options. I'm fine with rounding out a bullpen through this avenue, but completely building a bullpen with it is dangerous. The only player in the entire bullpen mix who actually had a successful season in the majors last year was Glen Perkins, and even he lacks the prolonged track record to inspire total confidence. Relievers are always volatile and there are no sure things, but throwing a bunch of mediocrity against the wall and hoping for the best is exactly what led them to the worst bullpen in the league last year. I don't think there's anything wrong with suggesting that the Twins would be better served with at least one proven big-league relief arm that doesn't carry enormous question marks. I presume this is directed at me. To be clear, I did not ask you to stop reading or commenting on my posts, I simply suggested that you might be better off doing so considering that you seem so sensitive to any vaguely critical analysis. I got accused all the time last offseason of being overly negative -- then the team lost 99 games. Much of the time, what you perceive as negativity is just being realistic. If you find it so offensive, don't read it. That's all I'm saying.
  7. I've always come away impressed when I've seen Gutierrez pitch. Good, hard sinker that I could see as an effective late-inning weapon. Control has been a problem for him, but hopefully he can make some strides this year.
  8. Yeah, I meant 12 pitchers. Sorry about that. Fixed.
  9. I think he meant the best defensive outfielder. In which case he's probably right.
  10. I'm not convinced that it would cost a treasured asset to acquire someone like Uehara, as long as you're willing to pay his salary. Pointing to the Capps example – one of the worst prospect-for-reliever swaps in recent memory – is disingenuous. There are plenty of examples of teams trading for quality relievers without giving up much. In fact, the Twins have been involved with plenty of them (Rauch, Fuentes, etc). Of course you do. That's because you're completely dedicated to following prospects. But you know as well as anyone that the vast majority of these borderline prospects do not pan out in the major leagues. Those inexpensive relief arms that the Twins passed up on this offseason are absolute best-case scenarios for most of these guys they have in camp. And they would've cost a million bucks or so. So you think they have a chance to compete, and you think they'll need all the help they can get, yet you don't believe it's important to round out the bullpen with a reliable major-league arm? I'm sorry but your entire sentiment here seems like a contradiction of itself. This is a generalization that is simply untrue when applied to the relief pitching market. It was oversaturated and many of the bullpen arms that signed this offseason went far cheaper than they would have under normal circumstances.
  11. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?260-Building-a-Bench
  12. A year ago, the Twins went into the regular season with a bench consisting of Drew Butera, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert and Jim Thome. In other words: three guys who possessed only defensive value, and one who possessed only offensive value. It was a pretty limiting group, and the lack of flexibility caused headaches for Ron Gardenhire with starters shuttling in and out of the lineup all summer. Repko, Tolbert and Thome won't be back this year, and that's probably no coincidence. Nor is it coincidence that catcher J.R. Towles was signed during the offseason to give Butera some competition for the third catcher spot. The Twins will be hoping to boast a more well rounded bench this year, and that's definitely the right idea. The two candidates who could be considered locks, presuming they're healthy, would be Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes. Neither is a stand-out defender at any spot, but both can play multiple positions and have the potential to provide legitimate value with the bat. That's what you look for in a solid backup. If all goes to plan, Plouffe will draw occasion starts in the outfield and perhaps at DH, while Hughes will fill a Brendan Harris type role, subbing in against left-handers at various infield positions. Butera is probably close to a lock, as the Twins are almost guaranteed to carry a third catcher and they're familiar with him, but team officials have been reluctant to anoint him. It would seem that the door is open for Towles to swoop in with a big spring, and while he's been a Butera-esque hitter in his big-league career up to this point, he's certainly got more offensive potential. The end of the bench will be dictated by how many pitchers Gardenhire wants to carry, and by how comfortable he is with using Plouffe or Hughes at shortstop in a pinch. My assumption is that 13 pitchers will come north, since that's how they Twins have generally operated in the past and they've got a whopping 33 hurlers in camp this year (several of whom are out of options and one of whom is a Rule 5 draftee). If that's indeed the route they go, there's only room for one more bench player beyond the three mentioned above. Who will it be? That brings us to the matter of shortstop security. Jamey Carroll will need days off and could obviously get hurt, but I'd argue that the presence of Alexi Casilla along with Plouffe and Hughes – who both can play the position in an emergency – should be enough to offset any concerns. With that said, if Gardy is committed to having a true backup shortstop on his roster, he'll likely insist on carrying Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who started 59 games there as a rookie last year. Does it really make sense to carry Nishioka as a utility man, though? He's not an asset as a pinch hitter, or pinch runner, or defensive replacement. And relegating him to a bench spot would seemingly indicate that the Twins have given up on developing him into a starter despite their $15 million investment. Unless he shows significant advancement in his skills this spring, I think the Twins would be wise to start Nishioka in Rochester. That would leave an opening for the final bench slot, which could be used in a number of different ways. Sean Burroughs looks interesting as a potential platoon partner for Danny Valencia at third base and occasion fill-in at first and DH. Darin Mastroianni could fill the same fifth outfielder/pinch runner role that Jason Repko has in the past. Guys like Steven Pearce and Aaron Bates have the potential to provide some right-handed pop off the bench while serving as Justin Morneau insurance. The composition of the bench may seem like an afterthought, but those four players that opened the season there last year wound up totaling 866 plate appearances. It's important to round out the roster with players that can be assets in a variety of ways. Fortunately, there are a number of candidates to do so this time around. [ATTACH=CONFIG]221[/ATTACH]
  13. Nick Nelson

    Building a Bench

    A year ago, the Twins went into the regular season with a bench consisting of Drew Butera, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert and Jim Thome. In other words: three guys who possessed only defensive value, and one who possessed only offensive value. It was a pretty limiting group, and the lack of flexibility caused headaches for Ron Gardenhire with starters shuttling in and out of the lineup all summer. Repko, Tolbert and Thome won't be back this year, and that's probably no coincidence. Nor is it coincidence that catcher J.R. Towles was signed during the offseason to give Butera some competition for the third catcher spot. The Twins will be hoping to boast a more well rounded bench this year, and that's definitely the right idea. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The two candidates who could be considered locks, presuming they're healthy, would be Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes. Neither is a stand-out defender at any spot, but both can play multiple positions and have the potential to provide legitimate value with the bat. That's what you look for in a solid backup. If all goes to plan, Plouffe will draw occasion starts in the outfield and perhaps at DH, while Hughes will fill a Brendan Harris type role, subbing in against left-handers at various infield positions. Butera is probably close to a lock, as the Twins are almost guaranteed to carry a third catcher and they're familiar with him, but team officials have been reluctant to anoint him. It would seem that the door is open for Towles to swoop in with a big spring, and while he's been a Butera-esque hitter in his big-league career up to this point, he's certainly got more offensive potential. The end of the bench will be dictated by how many pitchers Gardenhire wants to carry, and by how comfortable he is with using Plouffe or Hughes at shortstop in a pinch. My assumption is that 12 pitchers will come north, since that's how they Twins have generally operated in the past and they've got a whopping 33 hurlers in camp this year (several of whom are out of options and one of whom is a Rule 5 draftee). If that's indeed the route they go, there's only room for one more bench player beyond the three mentioned above. Who will it be? That brings us to the matter of shortstop security. Jamey Carroll will need days off and could obviously get hurt, but I'd argue that the presence of Alexi Casilla along with Plouffe and Hughes – who both can play the position in an emergency – should be enough to offset any concerns. With that said, if Gardy is committed to having a true backup shortstop on his roster, he'll likely insist on carrying Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who started 59 games there as a rookie last year. Does it really make sense to carry Nishioka as a utility man, though? He's not an asset as a pinch hitter, or pinch runner, or defensive replacement. And relegating him to a bench spot would seemingly indicate that the Twins have given up on developing him into a starter despite their $15 million investment. Unless he shows significant advancement in his skills this spring, I think the Twins would be wise to start Nishioka in Rochester. That would leave an opening for the final bench slot, which could be used in a number of different ways. Sean Burroughs looks interesting as a potential platoon partner for Danny Valencia at third base and occasion fill-in at first and DH. Darin Mastroianni could fill the same fifth outfielder/pinch runner role that Jason Repko has in the past. Guys like Steven Pearce and Aaron Bates have the potential to provide some right-handed pop off the bench while serving as Justin Morneau insurance. The composition of the bench may seem like an afterthought, but those four players that opened the season there last year wound up totaling 866 plate appearances. It's important to round out the roster with players that can be assets in a variety of ways. Fortunately, there are a number of candidates to do so this time around.
  14. Hardly cause for panic, but combined with the lukewarm reports on Liriano from winter ball, it's tough to be encouraged. Liriano's resurgent 2010 campaign was prefaced by a spectacular DWL run and a very good spring.
  15. Yeah any time Nishioka's on the field it's basically a scary thought but the rest of the guys are at least somewhat intriguing in those spots.
  16. I'm hoping the bad injury luck with Zumaya is counterbalanced by good injury luck with Jared Burton, who has been a very effective reliever in the past when healthy. Was glad to see the Twins take a flier on him.
  17. Nathan had not been "decent" as a late-inning reliever, he was flat-out dominant. The prior year in San Francisco he'd posted a 2.96 ERA and 83/33 K/BB ratio in 79 innings while holding hitters to a .186 average. Granted, shifting him into the closer role was an experimental risk, but that's the kind of guy I'll take my chances on. Romero and Rincon were both established big-league relievers and Crain was a Top 100 prospect in baseball. That bullpen might've been somewhat iffy, but it doesn't compare to this year's group, which has one player who was successful in the major leagues last year. One. I see a lot of comments like this. It's interesting that I'm the one getting accused of negativity when in fact I seem to be one of the few who actually believes the team could contend this year. It's because of that fact that this kind of inaction frustrates me. Do I believe one relief pitcher is going to be the difference-maker for this team? No. But having an established guy that you can somewhat count on to complement Perkins in the late innings gives you a lot more margin for error with some of the other guys they'll be trying out.
  18. The Twins had the worst bullpen in the major leagues last year. They needed impact additions. The guys you've listed are flawed minor-league players and long-shots to make any kind of significant impact in an MLB bullpen this season. If you're cool with the "quantity, not quality" approach, that's fine, and certainly there's a chance it might produce some diamonds in the rough, but I don't see it as an appropriate strategy for a club that's looking to build a contending bullpen. I shoot straight. My blogs have never been a place for rosey-eyed optimism. I certainly haven't "bad-mouthed everything Mr. Ryan and the organization does" (in fact, for the most part I've been quite approving of his moves this offseason) but his approach with the bullpen has been objectively mystifying. If you're that sensitive to criticism, perhaps you'd be better off not reading my stuff. I'm a believer in the value of a track record. Coffey and Qualls have each made 50+ relief appearances almost every single season, and have usually posted good numbers to go along with the workload. That means something. Yes, that is the nature of relief pitchers. I'm curious what the point you're trying to make is. That you shouldn't sign them?
  19. Nothing is guaranteed, but Coffey and Qualls both have track records as consistent, durable relievers that get right-handed hitters out. I'm not sure why you would dismiss them based on the amount of money they got in a saturated market.
  20. You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?252-Ryan-Must-React
  21. In his efforts to augment a bullpen that last year ranked last in the league in ERA, FIP and WHIP, Terry Ryan's moves essentially amounted to re-signing Matt Capps and adding Joel Zumaya to replace the departed Joe Nathan. That was hardly a recipe for guaranteed substantial improvement, and now with Zumaya's unfortunate yet unsurprising injury news, Ryan's passive approach to addressing this unit in a buyer's market looks all the more irresponsible. With their sole bullpen pickup gone for the year, the Twins may react by trying to find another outside arm they can plug in. They'll now only have to pay Zumaya $400K, and his contract included incentives that escalated to $1.7M, so you'd have to figure they have $1.3M left in the budget to spend on a replacement. That amount would have been plenty to sign a reliable relief guy such as Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey earlier in the offseason, but unfortunately all those hurlers are now off the board. The free agent market is exceedingly thin at this point, whittled down to such names as Michael Wuertz and Danys Baez – neither of whom have been effective since 2009. A trade would appear to be the more palatable solution. There are some interesting players who might be available, the most notable of them being Koji Uehara of the Rangers. Owner of a 2.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 140-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two seasons, Uehara is an elite right-handed reliever and Texas has been dangling him all winter. The problem is that he's set to earn $4 million this year, and it's hard to believe the Twins would stretch their budget that far given their reluctance to spend even a million on an additional arm to supplement the Zumaya signing. Then again, maybe this is the moment where the Twins finally put their money where their mouth is. They've claimed that they're serious about contending. They've claimed that there's wiggle room in their reduced budget, and that ownership is willing to add payroll over the course of the season. Well, then do it. Make a move and get a dependable right-handed arm for this bullpen, because right now it's tough to identify a single one. The time has come for Ryan to shed his past conservative tendencies and take an aggressive step aimed at putting his club in position for success. If he heads into the season with this current hodgepodge of bullpen question marks, and an inability to hold leads proves to be a crippling downfall for the Twins, all the good things Ryan has done during the offseason will be overshadowed by his baffling inactivity on the relief market. That would be a shame.
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