Nick Nelson

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At my former writing home, I made an annual tradition of running through each position on the Twins' roster in March, sorting out the backup options and projecting the starter's performance. That tradition will continue here at Twins Daily, and today I'll kick off the Position Analysis series with catcher, where Joe Mauer is looking for a big comeback year. --- Likely Starter: Joe Mauer 2011 Stats: .287/.360/.368, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 38 R, 0/0 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]272[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera, J.R. Towles, Rene Rivera, Chris Herrmann One eighty five. That was the collective batting average for Twins catchers last year. The position produced a total of 98 hits in 162 games; by comparison, Joe Mauer had 90 hits by the All-Star break in 2009, and that was after missing the entire month of April. That transcendent '09 campaign was what earned Mauer his massive $184 million contract, which kicked off with a thunk last year. Limited to 42 starts behind the plate due to injury, the former MVP watched as his replacements tested the very limits of ineptitude, posting an astonishingly bad .453 OPS in his absence. It was a treacherous experience, but also a reminder as to why, when healthy and able to catch, Mauer is worth the premium price tag. While the Twins carried an especially awful batch of backup catchers last year, finding decent ones is no easy task. In general, this just isn't a position that produces much offense. American League backstops collectively hit just .238/.305/.391 last year; that's a rate of production that Mauer easily surpassed even while battling numerous ailments. If his health is vastly improved this season – and all early signs are indicating just that – his numbers will dwarf an average catcher's production and he'll once again be a tremendous asset, underrated by those who focus solely on home runs and RBI. Of course, the money question at this point is whether Mauer can stick at catcher for the majority of the season. For now he's claiming that his knees are feeling just fine, but numerous injuries have taken their toll on his legs over the years and he had a tendency to wear down in September and October even when relatively healthy. Considering the seven remaining years on Mauer's contract and the need for him to produce at the end of the season, which he hasn't been able to do in the past, I believe the Twins would be wise to significantly lighten his load behind the plate regardless of how he's feeling. Fortunately, improved depth should enable Ron Gardenhire to do that without once again turning the catcher position into an offensive black hole. Ryan Doumit, signed during the offseason after hitting .303/.353/.477 for the Pirates last year, figures to serve as Mauer's top backup. Though he's considered a weak defender, the switch-hitting Doumit has a legitimate bat. Since the plan is for Doumit to frequently serve as the designated hitter, and both he and Mauer have had their share of durability issues, there's little doubt that the Twins will carry a third catcher. For now, Drew Butera would appear to be the front-runner for that spot, but former top prospect J.R. Towles is on hand to provide competition. Eventually, the Twins would love for Chris Herrmann, who posted a .385 OBP between Single-A and Double-A last year, to work his way into the mix. Last year Gardenhire had no choice but to cycle between the likes of Butera, Rene Rivera and Steve Holm when Mauer went down, and that can be attributed to some extremely poor planning by the front office. They'll be entering this season much better prepared for such a scenario, with a number of intriguing candidates capable of keeping Butera and Rivera firmly planted on the bench or in Rochester. Of course, the hope is that sorting through those candidates will never be an issue, because Mauer stays healthy and combines with Doumit to turn the catcher position back into an offensive asset. Vilified a year ago, Joe seems more determined than ever to make it happen. Predicted Hitting Line for Mauer: .310/.370/.460, 10 HR, 75 RBI

Same goes for the Tigers with Cabrera at third and Fielder at first.

I was six when the Twins won the '91 World Series, so most of Puckett's greatest moments came before I was able to really appreciate them. Really, my most vivid memories of Kirby came in the mid-90s, when the Twins were lousy and the Dome was mostly empty and he was the guy you'd go to see. Those were my formative years as a baseball fan, and Puck's greatness, his mystique and his exuberance played a huge role in making me the diehard I am today. He is missed.

Again, I didn't compare them. I pointed to Ichiro as an example of a player who succeeds while hitting the ball on the ground the majority of the time. No need to sensationalize or fall back on the tired "don't use their name in the same sentence!" routine. Revere won't turn into Ichiro, but one trait that has fed into Ichiro's huge hit totals -- being a lefty hitter who puts it in play and gets out of the box and down the line quickly -- is a trait that Revere shares. You can follow a great player's blueprint without aspiring to that level of greatness. I don't think the point of those references was to prove that Revere is destined to become a star; rather it was to point out that many under-25 rookies struggle in their initial acclimation to the majors and that it's too early to dismiss Revere based on one season since he's still years away from his physical prime. Obviously he could fizzle out or turn into Jason Tyner. I doubt anyone has a hard time envisioning that.

I didn't really compare them directly, I said they fit under the same profile. Both are contact hitters who won't walk a ton and derive their value from hitting for average and stealing bases. I pointed out that Ichiro is an extreme example, as he's basically the best-case scenario for that prototype. The takeaway should be that it's a lot easier to post a high batting average when you're striking out less than 10 percent of the time. Gomez hasn't even hit .260 in the bigs and probably won't because he whiffs so much.

Here's a quote from you, from earlier in this thread: "I would suggest that those willing to dismiss Revere are using their eyes and knowledge while those holding out hoping that he will develop are relying on statistics OF OTHER PLAYERS. You may put me in the eyeball camp." Pretty funny.

Carlos Gomez strikes out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances. The two are not comparable. Revere is a contact hitter.

I didn't foresee Doumit playing much first base anyway. Seems like the plan is for him to split between catcher and DH with a little OF. If Morneau is relatively healthy, Mauer will spell him at first base occasionally; if not, the Twins will probably go with Parmelee or one of the minor-league vets as the regular 1B.

Yes, I watch the games. I don't think you can make absolute assessments of a rookie no matter how much you watch them play. When Torii Hunter was struggling through his first season, looking raw in the outfield and over-matched at the plate, I'm sure many fans who watched him were making the same sort of rash judgments. Young players can improve, learn and make adjustments. Just because Revere put the ball in the dirt 70 percent of the time last year doesn't mean he always will, and even if he continues to tend toward grounders it doesn't mean he can't be successful (look at Ichiro for an extreme example). He hit .300 or better at every level in the minors, without exception.

I'm real low on the White Sox this year and expect them to finish in last place, whereas I'd peg the Twins around .500. So it's definitely a bet I'd make.

I'm in agreement with those saying that the Twins are built to succeed in a pitcher-friendly park. They don't have the kind of lineup that's going to hit for big power even if the fences are moved in by 10 feet, but their pitch-to-contact staff is certainly helped out by dimensions.

What reason is there to assume Revere can't hit .300 or above in the majors? He hit .270 last year as a 23-year-old rookie. You see absolutely no upside for him?

First of all, the Twins committed $5 million to Capps, not 4. I guess what annoys me is that the Twins seem to be taking the same approach with the bullpen as last year's failed gamble -- watching bullpen mainstays depart (last year Guerrier and Crain, this year Nathan) and rather than signing established relievers to replace them, hoping that unproven internal guys can step up and do the job. We all know that marginal pitchers have turned the corner to emerge as solid relievers plenty often in the past, but the Twins are going to need several guys to do it this year if they actually want the bullpen to be an asset. Over the past decade, the lesser Twins team that have sneaked their way into the playoffs have always benefited from a deep relief corps that consistently held leads, and people seem to overlook that. The other thing that bugs me is that after all the talk this offseason about creating competition in camp and making it so players have to earn their jobs, Capps was guaranteed the closer spot despite losing it due of poor performance last season. Perkins was ruled out as a candidate early on and there's nobody else in the picture who could realistically be deemed a contender for the role. I've said many times that I think Capps can be a fine closer if he's healthy, but there's no assurance his elbow problems won't crop up again this year. If he's closer to 2009/2011 form than 2010, this team has serious issues with late-inning RH relief help.

I'd add to the list Torii Hunter, who hit .250/.309/.380 (.689 OPS) in his age 23 season and was a Gold Glover receiving MVP votes two years later. The rush to judgment on Revere strikes me as pretty extreme, although it's not hard to see why many folks see his skill set as rather limiting.

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There's a saying that goes: one man's persisting and possibly career-ending concussion aftermath is another man's opportunity. Something like that, anyway. Up to this point, things have gone smoothly for Justin Morneau, who has been able to get through all his workouts and delivered an RBI single in the Twins' Grapefruit League opener on Saturday. But the first baseman acknowledged recently that post-concussion symptoms continued to haunt him throughout the offseason, and that if they return he's probably going to have to hang up the spikes. Those would be some pretty big spikes to fill. Morneau has been a godsend for the Twins, largely because he's the type of player that this organization has struggled to produce: a truly elite slugger. He drove in 100 or more runs every year from 2006 to 2009, becoming the first Twin ever to reach triple digits in four consecutive seasons. His ability to hit for both average and power made him one of the most feared and respected batsmen in the league. That's exactly the kind of player you want at first base. If Morneau can't return to that level, there's no one in the short-term picture who can even come close to replacing the production he offered when healthy. In fact, it's not clear that the Twins could even find a competent bat to stick at first base if Morneau's brain injury forced him out. The organization's best hopes at this point lie with Chris Parmelee. If he can keep doing what he's been doing since the midway point last year, he offers optimism that the Twins could get by without Morneau's mighty bat at first base. Parmelee's first four seasons in Minnesota's system after being drafted 20th overall in 2006 were largely underwhelming. He moved very gradually up the minor-league ladder, battled injuries and posted solid yet unspectacular numbers as a slow-footed first baseman and corner outfielder. Last year, at the age of 23, Parmelee turned a corner. His overall numbers at New Britain – .287/.366/.436 with 13 homers – were very much in line with his past production. Yet, hidden in those numbers were some very promising signs. [ATTACH=CONFIG]257[/ATTACH] For one thing, he finally stayed healthy all year, appearing in a career-high 142 games over five months with the Rock Cats before playing in another 21 after a September promotion to Minnesota. Parmelee also got stronger as the season went along. After hitting .283 with five home runs between April, May and June, he hit .305 with six homers and 26 RBI in July, then hit .302 with a pair of dingers in August before heading north and hitting .355 with four homers for the Twins in September. It's great to see Parmelee hitting for average, considering that he hit just .250 over his first four years as a pro, and it's especially encouraging to see him hitting the ball out of the yard more frequently. In the end, his ability to hit for power will largely dictate his overall value. No one expects Parmelee to develop into the type of dominant slugger that Morneau has been for the Twins. But if his recent improvement is legitimate, and he can become 20-homer type with a solid average and walk rate, the thought of losing Morneau becomes considerably less traumatizing. Parmelee's two-run homer in yesterday's exhibition game is a promising sign that his new-found power is here to stay. I'll be looking for more of that as the spring progresses.

Actually I'd say Gutierrez is basically the opposite Anthony Slama. Slama's a pitcher who posted spectacular numbers throughout the minors but has never been viewed as a great prospect because he lacks the raw stuff to succeed in the majors. Gutierrez has posted rather pedestrian numbers in the minors, at least since graduating from Single-A, but he remains on the Twins' radar because they believe in his pitches. When you actually watch him, it's not hard to see why.

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The Twins played their unofficial first game of the spring on Thursday -- a 'B' game against the Red Sox at Hammond Field. Obviously, you can't put much stock into what goes on during exhibition contests – particularly an informal affair such as this one – but one performance that stuck out to me was that of Carlos Gutierrez, who struggled through two-thirds of an inning and raised the ire of his manager. Pitching in relief against a lineup filled with Boston backups, Gutierrez issued three walks and a two-run double, managing to record just two outs before the inning was cut short. Ron Gardenhire was none too pleased: Gardenhire doesn't call players out this candidly in the media very often, but I've noticed that oftentimes he'll do it when he's frustrated and disappointed because his expectations weren't met. I think this is one such instant. Gutierrez is a guy the Twins are looking at to carry weight in their patchwork bullpen this season. I listed him as one of four key players to watch in my Spring Training Preview last month. Drafted out of college in the first round four years ago, now is the time for him to be stepping up. [ATTACH=CONFIG]236[/ATTACH] Yet, while he's got the stuff to profile as a solid reliever, his control continues to lag behind. Last year in Rochester, Gutierrez averaged a career-best 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but that came with 31 walks in 62 frames. He's always given up a fair amount of hits, so it seems unlikely that Gutierrez will be a real asset in the bullpen unless he can significantly reduce the number of free passes. Thursday's outing doesn't provide a great deal of encouragement on that front, but it's still very early and hopefully Gardenhire was right when he said the erratic performance might have been attributable to nerves.