Nick Nelson

So your point is that since players who've broken out have regressed in the past, we should simply expect it with this new crop and thus abandon any notion of building a contender around them? Not sure how you can try to couch that as anything other than blatant pessimism. Personally, I don't see any reason to believe the guys that are flourishing now cannot continue to do so going forward. Just because breakout performances are unexpected doesn't make them flukish or unsustainable. Plouffe's power has been trending up for three years. Perkins has been one of the best relievers in the league for the past two seasons. Revere is doing the same thing he did at every single level in the minors. Willingham probably won't repeat his performance from this year but even if he falls back to career norms he's a great hitter. None of these spikes are really "out-of-the-norm" if you examine the situations at hand rather than comparing them to irrelevant past examples like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano. Right now, the Twins have a very good offense going and all the major contributors are locked in beyond this year, with enough depth to trade from a few areas of strength. I choose to view that as a good thing.

Yeah, when a bunch of first-round draft picks like Perkins and Plouffe and Revere and Parmelee figure things out in their mid-20s and start looking like long-term impact players, it certainly reflects poorly on the front office and coaching staff. But hey, no one can predict the future so they'll probably all fall off the typical progression curve and start sucking immediately after this year. Very fair assessment there. What I would call unexpected, flukish and unsustainable was the putridity of the starting staff in April and May. And it was unsustainable. Even with a crop of Quad-A arms, the rotation has been at least serviceable enough to keep the team afloat since then. If you're telling me you expected the pitching to be as wretched as it was in the first third of the season – one of the worst stretches of performance for any team in the past decade – I don't believe you. It's difficult to exaggerate the severity of this team's problems but, to the OP's point, a number of people around here manage to do it.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1833[/ATTACH]Last year, Minnesota's outfield was a mess. Among players who put in significant time at an OF spot, only Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel posted an OPS over .700, and neither appeared in more than 77 games as on outfielder (Cuddyer due to Justin Morneau's injury, Kubel due to his own). This, along with Denard Span's costly injury, left a lot of at-bats for the likes of Delmon Young, Jason Repko, Rene Tosoni and a rookie Ben Revere, all of whom struggled mightily. This year has produced a rather dramatic turnaround, as the Twins' outfield has been one of the most stable and successful in memory. Josh Willingham has started 92 of a possible 110 games in left field. Though his defense has been suspect, his bat has more than made up for it as he's having a more productive season than Cuddyer or Kubel ever had here. One can easily argue that the slugger will be unable to maintain this performance throughout his contract, but the fact that he's showing absolutely zero signs of age at 33 cannot be viewed as anything other than an enormous positive. Additionally, the two guys next to Willingham have helped overshadow his deficiencies with the glove. One of those guys is Denard Span, who has started 97 of 110 games in center. He's not the elite top-of-the-order bat he once was, but the 28-year-old has been a durable, complete player. While he hasn't been spectacular in any area (except possibly defense), he's been very solid all-around and a quality leadoff man. Most importantly, his concussion issues from last year have rarely even been referenced this summer. Then there's Ben Revere, whose improvement is rather astounding. At age 24, he's already fulfilling his promise. As a guy who doesn't walk much or collect many extra-base hits, he needs to hit well over .300 and play stellar defense to be a truly valuable asset. Right now he's doing just that. Considering his skill set and the .326 average posted during his rapid assent through the minors, there's no reason to think he can't do it consistently for many years to come. I haven't even mentioned Darin Mastroianni, who is establishing himself as an ideal fourth outfielder with his rangy defense and elite base running skills. The great part about these players is that they're all under team control through at least 2015. The better part is that an infusion of excellent young outfield talent – namely Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks – is rapidly approaching the majors. Assuming those two continue to develop, the Twins will have a pleasant problem on their hands with an overload of quality outfielders. There have been a number of quirky things about this 2012 season. The fact that the Twins have managed to vastly improve their outlook in the outfield despite losing their two top producers to free agency surely must be viewed as one of the most enjoyable.

Very well said. Personally, I haven't found the overall tone of rhetoric here to be overly positive or negative. Certainly there are people who go over the top in focusing on the bad rather than the good (and vice versa) and some of the front office rants can get a tad ridiculous, but generally people are just speaking their minds and that's the purpose of a forum. Whether people are celebrating the successes of individual players (and there's been plenty of that) or brainstorming ways to rebuild a contending team, they're voicing their opinion and showing that they care about what's happening on the field. Isn't that why we're here? If everyone shared the same rosy-eyed viewpoints, the discussions wouldn't be very interesting.

That seems to be your implication. As if there's some great injustice in one bad player being rostered over another. What's best for the team is what's best for the player. Dozier looks overwhelmed and he's not showing any meaningful signs of improvement. If the coaching staff feels he'd benefit from a return to Triple-A to work on some things, then so be it. That approach has helped plenty of players before.

I'd rather cover half Morneau's salary and get a quality return than simply try to unload his contract. If he keeps hitting through the end of the year, I have to imagine there are a number of teams that would be very interested in adding him at $7M next year. At that point, you create a bit of a bidding war, which is exactly what the Twins need.

Why are you so concerned about the "message" being sent? The Twins need to do what's best for them as a team. The notion that Dozier has somehow earned anything is silly.

Based on these quotes from Gardy, it sounds like the Twins are on board with my plan: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/165216066.html?refer=y. Missed the game tonight but it sounds like a comically bad performance. On the bright side, if he keeps this up, the Twins can move forward with him firmly out of the picture for next year.

For an organization that has been criticized on occasion for moving prospects along too slowly, this is a bold and welcome statement.

You really seem to be missing the point of this thread. If you're incapable of saying anything positive, probably best to stay away from this one.

Revere is less than 10 PA away from qualifying for the batting title. His average would rank third in the AL behind Trout and Cabrera.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1806[/ATTACH]Sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to the minors at the outset of this season was a fairly obvious decision, given his immense struggles as a rookie last year. Leaving him there for the majority of the summer has also been an easy choice, as his play in Triple-A has offered no indication that he belongs in the big leagues. That remains true now, after a "hot" month of July in which Nishioka batted .298 but posted a meager .702 OPS, but nevertheless the Twins elected to bring him back to the majors when Sunday's Danny Valencia trade opened up a roster spot. And you know what? I believe the club made the right choice in recalling the embattled infielder, and I'll take it a step further: I think Nishioka should be starting regularly for Minnesota from here on out. Why? For the same reason that Nick Blackburn should keep taking the hill every fifth day, regardless of his performance. Right now, the Twins need to be completely focused on 2013 and beyond, and like it or not, the organization will be paying those two players – who happen to slot in at positions of great need – many millions of dollars next season. There's an inclination to label both Nishioka and Blackburn sunk costs, and ultimately that's what they may amount to next year: $8 million in wasted payroll with virtually no return. But that's an ugly scenario and the Twins have plenty of incentive to avoid it. In a late-season situation such as this, where wins and losses don't matter, there's an opportunity to take a long look at both players and try figuring out a way to get some value from them going forward. Believe me, I have close to zero faith in that happening, especially in the case of Nishioka. He just doesn't seem to have the tools to succeed as a major-league player. But a lengthy audition in a low-pressure environment with daily access to Joe Vavra and other coaches strikes me as a worthwhile last-ditch effort. Presuming Brian Dozier continues to start on the other side, Nishi won't be stealing playing time from anyone of import. When a 28-year-old hits .298/.336/.365 over a month in Triple-A, it's generally not something worth getting excited about. In the case of Nishioka, it is sadly the most positive thing he's done since coming over from Japan. That's the splinter of hope Twins fans must cling to with the failed import, so it's not hard to see why most have summarily dismissed the idea of his playing any role in the club's future, despite his contract. How nice it would be if he showed us something over the next two months to make us believe otherwise.

Nice job with the table Jeremy. Very good resource.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?871-Wimmers-Goes-Under-the-Knife

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1743[/ATTACH]An outcome that has long seemed inevitable became a reality today when it was announced that pitching prospect Alex Wimmers was slated to undergo Tommy John surgery. It's a major setback in a career that hasn't really been able to get off the starting block. The story leading up to this news is a familiar and frustrating one. Back in April, Wimmers landed on the disabled list after one start with what was thought to be a minor elbow strain. An MRI exam in early May revealed a partial tear in his UCL. The Twins opted for rehab. He spent the next couple months wearing a stabilizer, resumed throwing in early July and took the mound later that month for a start in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Wimmers didn't make it through the first inning. He allowed three runs on four hits and a walk while recording two outs. After the outing, he reported discomfort in the elbow, and after another MRI the Twins opted for surgery. Between Wimmers, Scott Baker and Kyle Gibson, that's three instances in the past two seasons where the medical staff became aware of a pitcher's elbow issue and either misdiagnosed it or prescribed a futile rest/rehab solution. Take it back even further and you can include names like Pat Neshek and Francisco Liriano. Understandably, surgery is seen as a last resort, but in many of these cases the ultimately misguided decision to delay action can have a profoundly negative impact on these players' careers. For example, there's a chance Wimmers won't return until 2014, at which point he'll be a 25 with one career start above Single-A. Had he undergone surgery back in May when the tear was first discovered, he may have been able to come back midway through next season. I don't have nearly enough insight on the situation to condemn the medical staff and it's possible this happens just as frequently in other organizations, but on the surface it just looks bad – especially for a pitching-starved franchise with so little margin for error when it comes to handling its prospective young arms. Either way, complaining about the process avoids what is at the heart of this issue: terrible luck. The Twins had the foresight to addressing their upcoming dearth of starting pitching by drafting fast-track college starters in the first round two years in a row, and within a couple years of joining the organization each one succumbed to one of the most significant injuries a hurler can have. You can perhaps blame the Twins for pushing back timelines, but you can't blame them for the injuries themselves occurring. These are outside circumstances taking an immense toll on Terry Ryan's ability to rebuild a depleted rotation. For that, he should probably be cut some slack.

Per Dustin Morse of Twins PR. No surprise. Still a huge bummer and a terrible break for an organization that's had plenty.

Here are the two things we know from reading this article: 1) Pohlad said he is comfortable with where payroll is at now. 2) Walters wrote in the article, right next to that particular quote, that payroll for this year stands at around $100 million. Now I would guess that as a veteran reporter, Walters had the sense to run this number by Pohlad while he was talking to him. And if Pohlad's response was some ridiculous nonsense about how the "current payroll" is actually the current amount they're currently paying to players currently on the 25-man roster extrapolated across a full season – well, Walters would have written that in the story. Any conclusions you draw beyond the two items mentioned above are nothing but absurd conjecture.