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Nick Nelson

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Everything posted by Nick Nelson

  1. You're being ridiculous. There's no way you can actually believe the things you're writing. You're ruining this thread with absurdity – just cut it out. You don't have to jump to the most negative conclusion possible in every single situation.
  2. Obviously not ideal, but I think they can survive with some alignment of Carroll/Escobar/Dozier up the middle. They've had one of the best offenses in the league since May despite no production from second or short.
  3. Plus, if they can trade Span or Morneau (eating half his salary or so) then their commitments for next year lower to ~$70M. Assuming they're serious about keeping payroll around $100M, that'd give them close to $30 million to spend on starting pitching and (if Span's dealt) a right fielder. I really don't know what other needs they have. Maybe another reliever.
  4. Don't think his bat will hold up as a starter anywhere, but he's looking like a quality 4th OF and a very nice RH complement to Revere.
  5. In what way is it a Catch-22? You sign one legit mid-tier free agent (a Marcum or Blanton type), you maybe gamble on one or two other risk/reward plays (Baker, Matsuzaka, Carmona - er, Hernandez), trade Span or Morneau for an arm, and you hope Diamond can keep it rolling and Blackburn is usable. If Gibson or Hendriks are able to give you something, all the better. There are ways to envision a decent rotation here next year without requiring a huge free agent spending spree, which is why I feel that Mackey's conclusion was a bit of a stretch.
  6. Right. I suspect that Ryan is working more closely with the medical team this year to try and get an idea of where the problem areas are. The answer isn't simply to fire everyone involved with the operation and try to find replacements. The quotes in the article lead me to believe that TR is getting fed up and that changes will be coming, in some form.
  7. http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_21203057/minnesota-twins-gm-pitcher-ryan-wimmers-injury-i Twins medical staff, ladies and gents!
  8. In this division, and with this core, I think outright "punting" the 2013 season would be a big mistake and I doubt that is truly Ryan's intention. The last time the Twins "punted" a season was 2008, when they gave up Santana, Garza and Hunter, then came within a game of making the playoffs. Every move should be made with the organization's long-term health in mind, but that's not mutually exclusive from putting a competitive product on the field next year.
  9. No one's giving a three-year deal to a guy coming off TJ surgery. That simply doesn't happen. Especially considering that Baker was never that durable to begin with.
  10. In fairness, Span does lead the team with 27 doubles so he's at least been putting himself on second base fairly often without needing to steal. He'll probably finish the season with around 40 doubles and 20 steals. I'll take that.
  11. Why? He's done it everywhere.
  12. There's some truth to this point but the thing to keep in mind is that the pressure to trade at the deadline was not on the Twins – it was on the teams they were talking to. If the desperation of loading up for the stretch run didn't prompt opposing GMs to overpay, then there's little harm in waiting. It's possible the value of guys like Willingham and Burton will drop significantly in the next two months but probably not.
  13. You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?863-Trade-Flatline
  14. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1715[/ATTACH]Tuesday's 3:00 PM trade deadline came and went with Minnesota, for a second consecutive year, standing pat. There's a lot of frustration being directed toward the Twins, who – unlike other cellar-dwellers around the league – weren't able to unload assets for impact prospects. Their only trade sent Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a meager return. In short, the franchise did very little to aid its rebuilding effort. But, in reflecting on these past days, there's one very important point to keep in mind: no trade is better than a bad trade. Dealing away Liriano was essentially a no-brainer, given that he'll be a free agent at year's end. Shipping out Carl Pavano and Matt Capps would have also been obvious moves, even if there wasn't much coming back, but unfortunately both are sitting on the disabled list indefinitely (and still could be traded in August). The rest of the team's trade candidates, from Denard Span to Josh Willingham to Justin Morneau to Jared Burton to Glen Perkins, are all under control beyond this year. These aren't guys you trade just to trade. Given that every single one of those names has appeared in reported trade rumors over the past few days and weeks, it seems clear that Terry Ryan was busily working to assess their markets and find a sensible deal. In the end, he didn't get the kind of offers that he felt merited giving up pieces with long-term value. It's tough to blame him for that. There will be other opportunities to shop these players in the future (in fact, I suspect we'll see Span and Morneau's names floated quite a bit during the offseason). Earlier this week I wrote about a hard truth that became evident in the Liriano trade and also through some of the quotes surfacing from rival general managers about the the Twins' sky-high asking prices for their trade chips. For various reasons, despite the increased number of buyers, teams around the league just weren't willing to pay up for what the Twins were selling. In a situation like that, standing pat was really the only logical course of action. And it leaves Ryan with plenty of options during the offseason.
  15. Nick Nelson

    Trade Flatline

    Tuesday's 3:00 PM trade deadline came and went with Minnesota, for a second consecutive year, standing pat. There's a lot of frustration being directed toward the Twins, who – unlike other cellar-dwellers around the league – weren't able to unload assets for impact prospects. Their only trade sent Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a meager return. In short, the franchise did very little to aid its rebuilding effort. But, in reflecting on these past days, there's one very important point to keep in mind: no trade is better than a bad trade. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Dealing away Liriano was essentially a no-brainer, given that he'll be a free agent at year's end. Shipping out Carl Pavano and Matt Capps would have also been obvious moves, even if there wasn't much coming back, but unfortunately both are sitting on the disabled list indefinitely (and still could be traded in August). The rest of the team's trade candidates, from Denard Span to Josh Willingham to Justin Morneau to Jared Burton to Glen Perkins, are all under control beyond this year. These aren't guys you trade just to trade. Given that every single one of those names has appeared in reported trade rumors over the past few days and weeks, it seems clear that Terry Ryan was busily working to assess their markets and find a sensible deal. In the end, he didn't get the kind of offers that he felt merited giving up pieces with long-term value. It's tough to blame him for that. There will be other opportunities to shop these players in the future (in fact, I suspect we'll see Span and Morneau's names floated quite a bit during the offseason). Earlier this week I wrote about a hard truth that became evident in the Liriano trade and also through some of the quotes surfacing from rival general managers about the the Twins' sky-high asking prices for their trade chips. For various reasons, despite the increased number of buyers, teams around the league just weren't willing to pay up for what the Twins were selling. In a situation like that, standing pat was really the only logical course of action. And it leaves Ryan with plenty of options during the offseason.
  16. The Twins have an abundance of pitchers who allow a great deal of contact. They also have a lack of high-caliber pitching in their organization. Sorry, but the two facts are not unrelated. I think complaints about coaches preaching the PTC philosophy are over the top, but their tendency to target pitchers with low K-rates is tiresome.
  17. Have to think the Twins could command significantly more for Span, given that he's younger, having a better year and under contract for multiple seasons.
  18. Debating whether or not they should have traded Liriano is fair. Given what they received, I honestly would have probably preferred to just hold him and make the qualifying offer during the offseason. I think it's a risk a team like the Twins should be able to take. This article was more geared toward the complaints about what the Twins got back relative to what they could have gotten back. My guess is that Ryan's choices came down to uninspiring & flawed younger prospects or low-ceiling, MLB-ready older prospects. In that situation, he opted for the guys who might be able to cheaply fill some holes in the near future.
  19. Thanks for posting this thread. Nice counter-balance to the (warranted) negativity that has run rampant this season. In the future, I would definitely recommend turning it into a blog... this is the kind of conversation-starter that will get bumped to the front page. You touch on some key points. Even though this season has been just about as bad as last from a results standpoint, I'm feeling a lot more optimistic about the club's long-term outlook, even if I'm a bit more indifferent to what's happening on the field. (At this point last year, they were at least on the fringe of contention still.) Health is a really big thing. The fact that Willingham and Doumit have been so durable thus far – reversing well established career trends – is an underrated storyline. Mauer is a big one as well; guy is on pace for career highs in Games Played and Plate Appearances. After last year, that's pretty unbelievable. It's unfortunate that these super-healthy seasons are going to waste for a lost cause, especially when you look at Willingham who's having a career year. Still, knowing that these guys are all locked in for years to come, it's a big positive.
  20. I'll fully admit that my take is based on emotion and not logic. In principle, helping the White Sox in any way appalls me. Forgot to mention that they also traded Jim Thome to the Indians last year. It's like the Twins are becoming the farm system of the AL Central.
  21. I think you have a misguided idea of how MLB trade discussions work. "Selling the dream"? "Marketing scheme"? What are you even talking about? GMs have staffs filled with personnel who give them player assessments and help them make decisions. They don't rely on the words of the guy they're negotiating with or media posturing.
  22. Last year, the Twins traded Delmon Young to the first-place Tigers in return for marginal prospects. This year, the Twins traded Francisco Liriano to the first-place White Sox in return for marginal prospects. This isn't a complaint about the trades themselves (though they sucked), but am I the only one who finds the act of helping strengthen a division rival for a deep postseason run entirely too... chummy?
  23. He said it would be a mistake to pass up a high-ceiling guy. There is no evidence that we was offered any such prospects; in fact, I'd say the fact that he had to settle on Hernandez and Escobar is a strong indication that he wasn't. Opposing teams just didn't value Liriano the way we hoped they would. You can sit there and cast blame on Ryan or you can come to terms with the truth of the situation.
  24. Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote: "You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."
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