Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2084[/ATTACH]The status and outlook of the rotation is bound to be the biggest storyline for the Twins down the stretch and into the offseason. Clearly, there is no unit on this roster in a greater state of flux. As a new feature here on Twins Daily, we thought we'd start taking periodic glances at the starting pitching depth chart to provide a big-picture look at what the club currently has and what's in the pipeline. We'll post updates every few weeks, adjusting for performance swings, injuries and roster additions/subtractions. The top five guys are the ones currently in the Twins' rotation. After that, it gets a little subjective, but this is the pecking order as we see it. Feel free to voice your own opinion on these rankings, and on how far the team is from fielding a respectable rotation in 2013. 1. Scott Diamond. The surprise of the year continues to excel. He's turned in five straight quality starts and posted a 2.95 ERA overall in 128 innings. How long can he sustain his success with one of the league's lowest strikeout rates? 2. Sam Deduno. His "effectively wild" approach has held up thus far, as he's managed a 4-1 record and 3.33 ERA despite tallying more walks than strikeouts. Hard to expect that to continue, but right now he's got a pretty airtight case as the team's second-best starter. 3. Brian Duensing. His extreme vulnerability against right-handed hitters makes him a far better option in the bullpen, but Duensing is a solid pitcher and he has quietly turned in a 3.77 ERA in four starts since rejoining the rotation at the end of July. 4. Cole De Vries. A recent "sad but true" tweet from Patrick Reusse: "Every time Cole De Vries retires a big-league hitter I'm surprised." In spite of his lackluster stuff, the righty has decent peripherals and continues to squeak by. He turned in a solid outing against the punchless A's last night. 5. Liam Hendriks. The rookie returns to the rotation on Wednesday night after Nick Blackburn's surprising DFA earlier this week. Hendriks hardly could have been worse during a couple earlier stints with the Twins, but has been nearly untouchable in Triple-A with 76 hits allowed in 106 innings. It will be interesting to see how he performs in this low-pressure late-season audition; he could rise fast on this list. --- 6. Anthony Swarzak. He's clearly better suited for his current relief role, but I have to believe Swarzak would be the first guy Ron Gardenhire would call upon if he needed another starter at this moment. 7. Esmerling Vasquez. Like Deduno, Vasquez is an erratic right-hander in his late 20s who limits hits but hands out tons of walks. He probably deserves a chance but it's not clear the Twins are willing to deal with two such pitchers in the their rotation at once. 8. Nick Blackburn. The club's decision to remove him not only from the 25-man roster but the 40-man roster is a sign that they've soured on him badly. Still, he's under contract for $5 million next year so if he shows signs of life in Triple-A he'll probably get another chance. 9. Kyle Gibson. Recovering from Tommy John surgery, the former first-round pick has looked very sharp in 11 rehab outings between rookie ball and Single-A. He'll need to carry that to the upper levels before he's viewed as a legitimate option for the big-league rotation, but so far all signs are positive. 10. Pedro Hernandez. Acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, Hernandez is a classic Twins pitch-to-contact type and thus far he's allowed 23 hits in 15 innings for Rochester since coming over. He might get a glance in September just because, but he's got much to prove before entering the mix for next year. Plus, he left last night's game in Triple-A with an injury.

I don't know why they would send that message and I doubt he would buy it. He's 23 and he's one of the only pitching prospects in their system with legitimate potential.

It's not a commentary on the quality of the pitcher. It's a commentary on the term "ace." Felix is clearly an elite pitcher and Seattle's No. 1 starter but if he's never pitching meaningful games why get caught up with labels? In my opinion, an ace is the leader of a good rotation on a contending team who clearly gets the ball in Game One of a postseason series. By my definition, there aren't even close to 30 aces in the league. But that's a separate issue. I realize it's a subjective definition of a subjective term. Anyway, the central point is that Diamond is not going to be the No. 1 pitcher on a good pitching staff. I'll stand by that. Anyone who believes he'll continue to maintain a ~3.00 ERAin the long-term or will be the next Radke or Buehrle is, as Mackey puts it, getting carried away.

Radke and Milton get no love for 2002? Ah yeah, outside of '02. My bad.

Santana made 18 starts in 2003 and went 11-2 with a 2.85 ERA. They don't make the playoffs without him. He was their best starter. He's also the only pitcher they've won a playoff game behind since 1991. As for the Diamond/Radke comp... by the time Radke was Diamond's age he had pitched almost 900 innings in the majors, more than Diamond has thrown in his pro career. I know Diamond is on a nice run but let's look at this in some context... the guy wasn't on a 40-man roster two years ago and last year he couldn't get out hitters in Triple-A at the same age Radke was winning 20 games for the Twins. Diamond's success right now is mostly tied to an elite walk rate, which is out of character with the rest of his career (averaged about 3 BB/9 in the minors). Radke had an elite walk rate his entire career while showing incredible durability with 220 IP almost every season. Radke was the No. 1 pitcher (or "ace," I guess) on some bad pitching staffs, but it wasn't until better pitchers came along to push him down to No. 2/3 that the Twins actually became a legitimate contender. That's basically my point. To me, there's really no point in designating an ace on a bad team.

1) The Twins never made the playoffs in a year where Radke was their best starter. 2) It is WAY too early to put Diamond on Radke's level. That's an extremely optimistic comp.

I think you're being unjustly dismissive. Deduno also had a 3.43 ERA in 183 IP at Triple-A despite a 5.0 BB/9 rate. He's given up only 44 homers in 830 innings as a pro. The guy is legitimately tough to hit, and as long as that's the case he can probably hold his own because walks are simply much less damaging than the barrage of hits allowed by Blackburn. Will the Twins stand behind a guy whose pace drags on and for whom getting through 5 innings can be a challenge? Now there's the question.

He does. The difference is that when runners are on, pitchers are less likely to throw him strikes because – contrary to some of the things you're reading on this thread – he's a feared hitter that pitchers don't like facing in scoring opportunities, and he pretty much doesn't swing at balls. It baffles me that some people view his elevated walk rate with men on as a sign that he is not an imposing figure in the lineup.

Well, your scenario supposes that Diamond continues posting the numbers he has over 20 starts this season throughout next year. I don't think that's a reasonable expectation. Assuming he can sustain the way he's been inducing grounders and limiting walks, he's a nice pitcher, but we're still talking about a fairly hittable guy who ranks 96 out of 101 qualified MLB starters in K-rate. That's just not a sustainable recipe for the kind of numbers you're envisioning. I'm not saying his performance this year is a complete mirage. He could very well be a good pitcher again next year. But to answer your final question, if he's the Twins' best pitcher, I certainly don't think they're a playoff team.

Are you being serious? Whitey Ford? Warren Spahn? I guess Mackey wasn't arguing against a phantom viewpoint after all.

Pretty much this. All I was saying is that while Diamond is the best pitcher in a bad team (and would be if his ERA was a full run higher) he's never going to lead a quality staff for a contender. This isn't a guy you can match up against legitimate No. 1 starters in the playoffs. To me, that's the closest definition of an "ace" although I really don't like using the term because of its ambiguity. What Diamond has proven is that he's a legitimate major-league starter and probably a guy you can slot in the middle of a good rotation. And there's nothing wrong with that.

Of course, with men on Willingham also strikes out 21% of the time and hits .272, whereas Mauer strikes out 14% and hits .335. Willingham is more aggressive and comes up with more XBH, to be sure, but he also makes more outs. I think we can all agree that making an out is a lot more damaging to a rally than walking to first, right? I mean, clearly any time Mauer drew a walk it means he was thrown four balls. I'm sure he could chase more, strike out more, lower his average and maybe increase his power output, but why? Not everyone has to be that type of hitter. The Twins lineup already has guys like that, and there are lots of guys around the league with that approach. Few do what Mauer does as well as he does.

Let's please try to keep the focus on the piece, not the writer. I know I sort of opened the floodgates on that one but there's no need for attacks.

There are a lot of different factors with Mauer. As a catcher, he doesn't play as much as a lot of high-RBI 1B/OF sluggers because he needs more days off and gets hurt more. He's frequently had very, very bad hitters directly in front of him (the No. 2 spot has been an embarrassment for the Twins many times in the past decade). He doesn't hit a lot of home runs, which are a major source of RBI for many hitters. Even with all this, Mauer has usually been good for 85-95 RBI in his healthy seasons, and he'll probably finish in that same window this year. Perfectly respectable, especially when you're also getting on base at a .400 clip in front of true sluggers like Willingham and Morneau. There's just no way you can argue that a guy who hits .350 with RISP has been ineffective in those situations.

It bears noting that when he does swing the bat with RISP, he's been extremely effective, both this year (.351 AVG, .474 SLG) and in his career (.339 AVG, .493 SLG). His plate approach – working the count, waiting for his pitch, refusing to chase borderline offerings – plays a large part in that.

Another one of these weird columns where Mackey is arguing against no one in particular. Does anyone actually believe Diamond is going to be the ace on a good team?

On the plus side, there are a lot of spots that could potentially become open. Just taking a quick gander at the 40-man, there are many candidates: De Vries, Fien, Gray, Manship, Pavano, Perdomo, Nishioka, Carson, etc. Strengthening the bottom half of their 40-man should be a focus for the Twins; it's much less daunting than focusing on the top half and solid depth is the hallmark of a healthy organization.

For sure. I think that's just his body wearing down. He's had some shoulder problems that aren't talked about much.

Well look who poked his head out.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?938-Deciphering-Deduno

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2062[/ATTACH]The second-best pitcher in Minnesota's rotation is a 29-year-old journeyman with five innings of previous major-league experience who has issued 36 walks in 46 innings this season. Obviously, that speaks to how bad the club's starting pitching has been, but it also speaks to the success Sam Deduno has enjoyed in spite of his outrageously bad control. The right-hander has tallied five quality starts in eight turns, and with a little run support on Sunday he would have improved to 5-0 on the season. He's a fascinating pitcher to watch. His erratic tendencies are unparalleled; he's averaging 7.0 BB/9 – among MLB pitchers with 40-plus innings pitched, only the train wreck Jonathan Sanchez has a worse rate and no one else is close. Yet, up to this point Deduno has been able to work around the extreme control issues by limiting damage when the ball is put in play. Five qualifying pitchers in the American League (Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, David Price and Chris Sale) are yielding a lower batting average lower than Deduno's .228. Is this a sustainable recipe for success? Probably not. It's tough to expect anyone to maintain a .250 BABIP, and he's been fortunate to strand as many walks as he has. Then again, a free pass only gives the batter one base, and if you're not allowing the big hits, things generally won't get out of hand. Really, it's the same bend-don't-break philosophy that applies to a successful pitch-to-contact guy like Scott Diamond, though with a very different formula. Deduno is so far on the other end of the spectrum from this organization's typical pitching mold that it's hard to believe he was even given a chance. Typically the Twins have shown a strong preference for strike-throwers, even if it means they're among the most hittable pitchers in the league (Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are great examples). While he's unbelievably wild, Deduno has been extremely tough to square up, and his minor-league career – where he allowed only 7.6 hits per nine innings on average – suggests that's no fluke. Regardless of what moves the Twins make this offseason, it is a virtual certainty that at least a couple spots at the bottom of the rotation will be up for grabs next spring among a number of borderline pitchers already within the organization. When stacked up against the likes of Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Cole De Vries, Liam Hendriks, P.J. Walters and others, Deduno is far more likely to issue a walk but also far less likely to give up a hit or home run. At the end of the day, that might make him a more effective pitcher. Certainly that has been the case this season.

Yes. Well said.