Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2439[/ATTACH]In assessing the Twins' payroll situation for next year, a depressing reality became clear. Between the contracts of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Nick Blackburn, along with the $250,000 buyout that will be owed to Matt Capps, the club was set to be on the hook for about $9 million in what appeared to be totally sunk costs – all the results of clearly misguided decisions. That's a pretty significant chunk of money for a team with payroll restraints that needs to be putting all available resources toward improving its considerable weaknesses. Fortunately, that burden was lessened today when Nishioka, one of the most spectacular failures in the team's recent history and an almost guaranteed non-factor in next year's plans, asked for his unconditional release, thereby releasing the Twins from their $3.25 million commitment to him next year. It's a somewhat surprising development, given that there aren't many past examples of a professional athlete walking away from millions of dollars in guaranteed money. But to understand the decision, it might help to consider some of the cultural differences between Japan and America. I'm currently reading a book called Unbroken by Laura Hillenbrand. It details the true story of an American Olympian named Louie Zamperini who became a bombardier in World War II, had his plane shot down over the Pacific and ended up in a Japanese POW camp. It's a fantastic book and a highly recommended read. At one point, in discussing the Japanese army's torture and degradation tactics with American prisoners, Hillenbrand touches on the psychology behind this sad (but of course hardly unique) practice: Now, I certainly don't mean to imply that Nishioka shares the mentality of a 1940s military torturer, but the passage above touches on a distinct aspect of Japanese culture that traces back throughout history. Pride and dignity tend to be valued more highly than most things, including money, which might be difficult to understand in our very different American society where the almighty buck is often priority No. 1. In Japan, Nishioka was a preeminent star. He came to the States and was a total failure, unable to produce quality numbers even in the minor leagues. It's not hard to see how this could be extremely difficult for someone with such a mindset to cope with, and given that Nishioka's stock has done nothing but plummet after an abysmal rookie season, his outlook here was grim – grim enough that he was willing to give up millions of dollars to get away. (With that said, I suspect he'll be able to land a fairly substantial deal back in Japan.) He seems like a perfectly decent guy who's gone through an inordinate number of bad breaks (both literally and figuratively) over the past couple years. He probably did both himself and the Twins a favor by asking out of his contract, and I hope he's able to return to Japan and regain the level of success that brought him notoriety there. Meanwhile, the Twins will go back to the drawing board as they attempt to address their ugly middle infield situation. I applaud the creativity that led them to sign Nishioka, but going forward the execution will obviously need to be better.

A report from Andy Martino of the NY Daily News indicates that the Mets won't be looking to free agency to address their outfield needs this offseason: Sounds like New York will be a potential player for Denard Span. Who intrigues you on their roster? Personally, I love me some Jon Niese.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1061-Homer-Happy-Hendriks

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2397[/ATTACH]It is easy to despair over Liam Hendriks after starts like the one he turned in on Monday night against the Yankees, when he coughed up four homers en route to his eighth loss in 15 tries for the Twins this year. Certainly the right-hander has offered little cause for encouragement here in his first extended exposure to the majors, but we shouldn't let these rocky outings completely sour us on his long-term outlook. Earlier this month, Aaron Gleeman drew a comparison on his blog between Hendriks and former Twin Brad Radke. When Radke first stepped onto the scene back in 1995, his performance was similar to what we've seen from Hendriks thus far. He gave up tons of hits, tons of homers and looked generally hopeless. Of course, Radke went on to have a pretty decent career. I was struck by another more recent example of a player who, like Hendriks, put up ridiculous numbers in the minors despite an underwhelming arsenal and got knocked around in his first taste of the majors. That would be Kevin Slowey. Compare the numbers from Slowey's rookie season in 2007 to the ones Hendriks has produced this year: [TABLE] Player IP ERA K BB Opp OPS HR Slowey 66.2 4.73 47 11 .850 16 Hendriks 78.1 6.09 47 24 .914 17 [/TABLE] Granted, Hendriks' production looks pretty bad even in comparison to Slowey's uninspiring debut. But the two shared the same principal problem – a proneness to having their mediocre offerings deposited in the bleachers. Slowey was even more vulnerable to homers than Hendriks, which is saying something given that the latter's HR rate would translate to a 44 long balls allowed in a 200-inning season. Slowey's initial struggles in the big leagues gave him plenty to work on during the offseason, and he came back to put together a fine season as a 24-year-old in 2008, posting a 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 123-to-24 K/BB ratio in 160 1/3 innings. He cut his HR/9 rate from 2.2 to 1.2. Hendriks is 23 years old, the same age as Slowey was in '07. He similarly needs to make adjustments and find a way to make his stuff work against MLB hitters, the way it has against hitters at all levels in the minors. If he can bounce back next year with numbers anywhere close to the ones Slowey was able to produce in his sophomore season, it would be a huge boon for Minnesota's shaky rotation.

I think that's a little overly dramatic. The Twins won 87 games in a 2009 season where Alexi Casilla (.538 OPS) and Nick Punto (.621 OPS) were their middle infield starters on Opening Day and for much of the season. In principle I agree with you, though. Neither Florimon nor Dozier has done anything to earn a starting spot next year. It's actually sort of an outrageous notion.

My guess: Liriano goes to the NL on a fairly cheap one-year deal during the offseason and goes on to have a career year.

No baseball announcer has anything on Paul Allen, who shrieked like he was watching his mother get hit by a car when Nate Poole hauled in that TD to bump the Vikes from playoff contention in '03.

There might have been some people arguing that particular notion, but I think the more legitimate concern was that he'd have trouble maintaining his overall production while hitting in front of Joe Mauer as opposed to an NL pitcher. You just aren't going to get as many good pitches to hit in that setting. He's continued to control the strike zone well, but when batting in the No. 2 spot this year Carroll is hitting .250 with a .603 OPS – a sizable drop-off from his .700+ OPS in each of the past two years with the Dodgers. He's been better hitting at the bottom of the lineup, which is pretty clearly where he belongs.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1055-Where-Does-Carroll-Fit-In

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2382[/ATTACH]During the first half of the season, Jamey Carroll seemed to be showing his age. By the All-Star break, he was hitting .234 with a brutal .597 OPS, and he had long since lost his job as the team's starting shortstop. He was certainly making his two-year, $6.5 million contract look like a poor investment. Since the break, Carroll has looked more like the player the Twins thought they were getting. After finishing 2-for-5 in the nightcap of yesterday's doubleheader, the veteran is now hitting .306/.369/.361 since the Midsummer Classic, a line that compares favorably against his .290/.368/.344 output over the two seasons prior. Even though he hasn't been able to authoritatively claim any position this year, Carroll has clearly been one of Ron Gardenhire's go-to guys, as he ranks fifth on the team with 518 plate appearances. And his production over the past few months has warranted the tread he's gotten. Even though he lacks any semblance of power and he's not a spectacular defender, a .750 OPS from a middle infielder is none too shabby. So how will Carroll figure into next year's plans? Presently, the team lacks solidity at either middle-infield spot, and relatively speaking, he looks like a pretty appealing option. Then again, it appears that the manager has lost faith in his abilities at shortstop, given that he drawn only nine starts at the position since losing his regular job there in early May. There's another dynamic in play when assessing Carroll's 2013 role. He has a 2014 option in his contract that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 401 plate appearances next year. Granted, that option is only for $2 million, but he'll be 40 years old in '14 and he's already shown signs of decline this year in spite of his strong second half. What do you think? Should the Twins move forward planning on having Carroll as their starter at second (or even short) next year with the hopes that his post-break performance is a sign of things to come? Or should they keep him in a utility role, hoping to fill the middle-infield spots with younger players that are potential building blocks, while at the same time improving their chances of avoiding that 2014 option?

Given that Terry Ryan's vague quote in a Jim Souhan column about a "thin" SP market has generated a lot of confusion here and elsewhere, I felt the best idea would be to simply email Souhan for clarification. His response: "He was referring to top-of-the-rotation starters. And my interpretation was that he was talking about top-of-the-rotation starters he would be interested in." So there ya go. I don't think anyone should be surprised by that.

Not to mention he had a 10/1 K/BB ratio over 6.2 IP in those two Triple-A starts, which is... pretty good. Overall, Gibson put up a 4.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 33/6 K/BB in 28 innings on his rehab stint. Not sure how that can be viewed as discouraging for a guy less than 12 months removed from TJ surgery.

I would guess that the Rays will be looking to move James Shields and his $9M salary this offseason. I'm sure they wouldn't be willing to trade him straight-up for Span but if you add in a little something else to spice up the package, maybe it happens.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBR/2012.shtml

Disagreement between those two versions of the metric is common. Neither is very good.

Honest question, Brock: Why do you put so much stock into WAR as an assessment of value when you've clearly demonstrated in the past that you have little faith in UZR and other defensive metrics? I agree with what you're saying but the way you've presented this argument isn't very compelling to me. Anyway, like others have pointed out, no one is claiming that Revere is going to be able to replace Span without the offense missing a beat. But the Twins have outfield depth that is only likely to grow going forward, and they have significant needs elsewhere. At this point, Span is probably their most valuable trading chip (outside of maybe Willingham but he's just not going anywhere). Revere is, at worst, a decent placeholder. Also, Shane, why you assuming that Revere is what he is at this point? He's 24, in his second big-league season, and he showed significant improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. When Span was his age, he was just finally figuring things out in Triple-A.

To me, the difference between trading Span and Morneau is that you'd be dealing Span with his value at a relative high point (I don't think he's looked this appealing to outside GMs in several years) whereas the same is not true for Justin. I'm a firm believer that Morneau has a big year on deck, but given his contract and lack of sustained success since injury, trading him right now would be little more than a salary dump. That doesn't really help the team much unless you're interested in stuffing Pohlad's pocket. Obviously Parmelee in RF is not ideal but I think you can live with lacking range in the corners, especially with a stud like Revere up the middle. Also, to the people who claim to be unwilling to move Span: you have got to be kidding me. I'm a huge fan of his, but he is the definition of expendable given this team's circumstances.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1048-Span-s-Last-Hurrah

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2366[/ATTACH]Denard Span stepped into the box to lead off Tuesday night's game and turned on the third pitch he saw from left-hander David Huff, driving it into right field for a double, sparking a three-hit night. In six games since returning from the disabled list, the center fielder is now 9-for-25 (.360) with two doubles, a triple and four runs scored. His late-season success bodes well for Terry Ryan heading into an offseason where Span will likely be the club's primary trade chip. Following what will almost certainly be a second consecutive season with 90-plus losses, there's going to be plenty of pressure on Ryan to shake things up. The emergence of Chris Parmelee makes the Twins motivated sellers, and given that they have not-so-subtly dangled Span in back-to-back trade deadlines, the writing is on the wall. There's an extremely high likelihood that Span will be dealt this offseason. So the question is: what can they get for him? When it comes to assessing his trade value, he has several things working in his favor. He's an established leadoff man with a reputation as a strong defender. He'll be coming off a solid season in which he currently holds a .290 average (third among AL center fielders) and .350 OBP (fourth) with a career-high 34 doubles. It's also very much worth noting that the free agent crop for center fielders this offseason will be quite thin. Unless you count Josh Hamilton, the most appealing options are B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn. Not one of those players is clearly a better bet going forward than Span, whose three-year, $20 million remaining contract looks like a great value compared to what those three are likely to get on the open market. Then again, Span also has some things going against him. No one views him as the powerful force he was in 2008/09 anymore, and his missed time over the past two seasons has to weigh on the minds of interested general managers. Even if he plays every game the rest of the way, he will have missed 127 games over the past two years. Fortunately, last year's concussion is now an afterthought and his strong play since returning from this latest shoulder ailment will help erase concerns that this one could linger. That's why carrying his current hot streak through the end of the campaign would be a big positive for the Twins. Just one more thing to watch here in the final two weeks.