Nick Nelson

Give up a top prospect for a 34 year old with three years left on his contract, when there are tons of pitchers available in free agency? How could anyone be in favor of that?

Oh, OK. So all the Twins need to do is go out and acquire Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong. It's so simple! How has no one thought of this before??? You improve your roster however you can. Finding inexpensive power bats is one way to go about it. Sitting back and doing nothing to address an offense that was "middle of the pack" despite career years from several players and almost no injuries is what I'd call a recipe for "short-term, 80-win thinking." Obviously pitching is the team's No. 1 priority. No one has said otherwise.

Given that Baker himself said "we are not close," it seems pretty unlikely. I do suspect they will eventually get him signed, though.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2575[/ATTACH]At a glance, one would think that Minnesota's power output this year was well above the norm. Josh Willingham launched 35 bombs and fellow newcomer Ryan Doumit chipped in 18. Trevor Plouffe's 24 were a pleasant surprise, as were Justin Morneau's 19. Even Joe Mauer delivered 10 long balls – just his third time reaching double digits. Despite all of those big power performances, the Twins tied with the Royals for fewest home runs in the American League. While 131 was an improvement over last year's league-worst total of 103, they remained one of the game's least threatening lineups. The problem is that beyond those aforementioned standout slugging performances, the roster produced no pop. Combined, all other Twins hitters managed 25 homers in 3,390 plate appearances, or one every 136. It's hard to believe that Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, Morneau and Mauer will all repeat their power numbers from this season, so finding players with a bit of muscle to round out the roster ought to be a goal for Terry Ryan this winter, unless he wants his club to sink back toward 2011's dismal homer total. Mauer's unlikely to be a major power threat and Ben Revere will almost surely be starting somewhere in the outfield, so the best approach might be to work around those two spots and maybe try something unconventional. How about a little power from the shortstop position? Yunel Escobar offers a little – he's gone deep 20 times over the past two years – and might be available in a trade. Otherwise, there's Stephen Drew on the free agent market; he will probably have to take a small deal after back-to-back ugly seasons but posted double-digit homer totals in four straight seasons prior, including 21 in 2008. What about second base? The Twins got only one home run from the position in the entire 2012 season. Would Ryan be interested in pursuing a player like Kelly Johnson, who strikes out a ton and weakens your infield defense but has hit 63 home runs over the past three years? Bringing in some backups with the potential to go deep off the bench would also help. There will be several guys in free agency that would fit in that kind of role. Eric Chavez hit 16 homers this year for the Yankees and could platoon with – or challenge – Plouffe. Lefty masher Jonny Gomes would be a nice DH complement to Doumit, who is much better against righties. Scott Hairston is a prolific home run hitter and probably won't cost much. There are a number of different ways to attack this issue, but what's important is that the Twins acknowledge and address it. I hope they won't let strong performances from a few players cause them to overlook what is, undoubtedly, a problematic lack of power across the roster.

Eh, I don't see it as a big priority. Perkins and Burton are a very good back-end combo, Duensing is one of the better lefty specialists in the league, and Fien made a believer out of me this year (not that I necessarily believe he'll repeat his performance, but he's solid). Swarzak is a fine long man. That leaves you with one or two spots. Burnett will probably fill one and I'm not necessarily a fan but there are a handful of other intriguing guys within the org who could step in. I'll be following Michael Tonkin with great interest next year. I can certainly see the wisdom in bringing in a few extra relievers to solidify depth for that unit, but to view it as the biggest problem spot after the rotation? Yeah, that's pretty surprising.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2554[/ATTACH]1) The Twins will be one of the first teams to sign a pitcher, and it will be a relatively big name. This certainly wouldn't be business as usual, and I don't actually think it'll be Zack Greinke. But the front office has been frank in its dissatisfaction with the current starting pitching situation, and has expressed an urgency to address that unit during the offseason. In his recent interview with John Bonnes for the Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan hinted that he'd be taking a hard look at some of the better pitchers in free agency, and when John asked whether the plan was to sit back and wait as opposed to aggressively pursuing targets, Ryan responded, "If I do that, we'll probably be holding the bag. You know pitching is going to go off the board." My guess it that the Twins have a list of high-end to mid-tier free agents that they especially like, and they'll get one of those guys signed pretty quickly, which will set the course for the rest of their offseason. 2) Denard Span will be traded. And fans, including myself, will probably be disappointed in the return. Span's a very good player that just doesn't seem to be valued as highly around the league as he should be. It's no secret that the Twins have been open to dealing him multiple times in the past and have never gotten an offer that quite enticed them. This winter, they have more motivation to move him than ever before, with Ben Revere's emergence, Chris Parmelee's presence, rising outfield prospects and major pitching needs. Hopefully Span's best year since 2009 will help the Twins get the return they deserve. 3) Payroll will increase. I'm going out on a limb here to some degree, because most people seem to think the team's spending will sink after another revenue-dropping ugly season. It's hard to blame them. Still, I think Ryan is going to want to do a lot of things this offseason in order to give Ron Gardenhire a fair shot at keeping his job next year, and I think the ownership will give the GM financial flexibility to make a lot of those things happen. It's in everyone's best interest. I'm not saying payroll will rise back to $100 million, as I've suggested it should, but I'd be awfully disappointed to see it drop. Again. 4) Alexi Casilla will be non-tendered. As a guy who can't hit well enough to start and really only excels at one position defensively, Casilla is the definition of a futility infielder. He's entering his third year of arbitration, which means he'll be due for a raise (albeit slight) on his $1.38 million salary from this past year. There's always been a distinct trace of promise somewhere deep within the athletic Casilla, but he's coming off one of his worst seasons and is now 28. It's time to let go. With cheaper options like Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Florimon available, the Twins are likely to agree. 5) The Twins will draft a Rule 5 player who will stick. When asked about how he intends to overhaul the pitching staff during the offseason, Ryan always responds by stating that he intends to pursue "all avenues," and he invariably mentions the Rule 5 draft as one of them. He doesn't mention how rarely impact players are acquired there. Nevertheless, by virtue of another horrible finish the Twins will once again be one of the first teams to pick, and hopefully they've learned a few things from last year's ill-fated Terry Doyle selection. I think they'll grab someone and find room to give him a shot, and I'm not even sure it will be a pitcher. There are other weaknesses on this club.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2530[/ATTACH]The World Series is almost underway, which means that the official start of the offseason is rapidly approaching. When the free agent market opens up, one of the central figures will be Zack Greinke, who is the clear top dog in a deep pitching pack. The former Cy Young winner offers ace-level ability, youth and a durable track record. Sure, there are a few question marks surrounding the right-hander, who turns 29 this weekend. He's had some anxiety issues in the past, and his ERA in three seasons since winning the Cy Young with Kansas City is a somewhat pedestrian 3.83. Nevertheless, compared to this year's other big free agent prize, Josh Hamilton, Greinke looks like a perfectly safe bet. Many believe he'll get a nine-figure deal at a time where spending is ramping up and many clubs are looking for pitching help. As a team that needs pitching more desperately than perhaps any other, could the Twins be a player for Greinke? It certainly wouldn't be in their nature to bid on a top free agent pitcher, but things have changed (you'd hope) in the Target Field era and this franchise could use a jolt to re-energize the fan base. Given the lack of high-end pitching in the pipeline, securing an arm like Greinke for the next five or six years would make a whole lot of sense. It's difficult to envision Terry Ryan entering a bidding war against heavyweight suitors like the Angels and Rangers, but in a recent interview with ESPN 1500 he at least left open the possibility: The last part of that quote seemingly rules out the possibility of a mega-contract for someone like Greinke. Then again, if the club was internally mulling that type of investment, you would hardly expect them to shout it out and alert the rest of the league to their intentions. More than most top-tier free agent pitchers, Greinke seems like a fit with Minnesota. He shies away from the bright spotlight more than your typical star player, and has spent nearly his entire career pitching in the Midwest. He's a quiet, cerebral guy that consistently throws strikes. This isn't a CC Sabathia or Cliff Lee, and he probably won't get paid like one, which could improve the chances for a club like the Twins. Of course, there are going to be a lot of teams making their pitch to Greinke this winter. Getting in that mix would not only be uncharacteristic for the Twins, it would be unprecedented. But, when you get down to it, they do have the money to make this type of splash if they really wanted to, especially when you consider that Justin Morneau's $14 million will come off the books in a year and revenue would likely rebound substantially with a star like Greinke brought aboard. Would they actually be willing to stray so far from their comfort zone and saddle themselves with another huge contract alongside Mauer's for the better part of the next decade? Difficult to fathom, but who knows. At some point, they need to stop operating like a small-market team.

I understand that. They were both free agents. The Twins could have let them both walk and saved ~12M. Keeping them wasn't about actively changing the makeup of the team, it was about trying to "keep the band together" as much as possible and make another run after a successful 2010 campaign. You're preaching to the choir about the shortcomings of this plan, but – again – that was their stance.

You can certainly argue with the quality of the plan (I sure did). I'm not breaking any ground here, though. They have said multiple times that they stretched payroll to bring back Pavano and Thome, which accounts for most of the increase from 2010 to 2011. That is their publicly held stance, which is why I used the word "purportedly."

Yep, his acquisitions of players like Willingham, Doumit, Carroll and Burton certainly led this team right down the tubes. He should not only fire himself but commit seppuku on the mound at Target Field. Do you ever get bored of posting some variation of the same "fire everyone" comment on every thread?

Untrue. The Twins could have let free agents Carl Pavano and Jim Thome walk, but stretched payroll beyond the level they were comfortable with in order to keep the team together and make another run.

If there are particular things you'd like to discuss, you're welcome to get the conversation started. Can't help but notice that this is the only thread you've started all month...

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