Nick Nelson

How many pitchers, who have never been elite, who have thrown 175+ innings once in their career and who were nine months removed from TJ surgery, have received a free agent contract with more than $5 million in guaranteed money? Seriously, find me a precedent. The dynamics of free agency are not lost on me. But five million bucks is a substantial amount of money to throw at someone who has been extremely unreliable from a durability standpoint and is coming off major surgery. We can't definitively say Baker's being overpaid – it could easily end up being a great bargain and even if not it won't hurt the deep-pocketed Cubs much – but that's just way more than you ever see a pitcher in that situation getting.

You seem confused. The blueprints are perspectives on what the Twins should do, not predictions of what they will do. Yes, a lot of people believe the Twins should take advantage of this robust pitching market and spend some money to improve on their extraordinary weakness in that department. I don't think many folks around here have ridiculous illusions about what pitchers are going to sign for this winter. The fact that Baker got a couple extra million more than we expected from a team that clearly valued him highly doesn't really have any bearing on what guys like Jackson, Marcum and Dempster will get. If the Twins are serious about keeping payroll steady, they could afford a guy like that and then some, but of course what they will do is another story. Again, I think you're mixing up people's wishes with their expectations.

You're reaching by trying to use this example as proof of anything. Baker is the FIRST pitcher to sign a contract with another team this offseason; it stands to reason he'll get more than people expected because clearly the Cubs were motivated buyers and they wanted to swoop him away from the Twins. That doesn't tell us anything about how the rest of the FA market is going to shake out. There's still a very good chance that many pitchers will end up going for less than expected because there are a lot of guys looking for work and only so much money to go around. Also, these "people" that believed the Twins were going to sign multiple pitchers from the top tier of the market... who are they? Who exactly are you trying to rebuke? Certainly not the majority.

Because letting people continue to pile on and viciously insult the guy is somehow conducive to quality discourse? How old are you? Grow up. Thrylos was wrong, as most of us expected to begin with. That has been established and nobody is making excuses for him. The only thing we're encouraging by locking up that thread is civility.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1172-Baker-Follows-a-Good-Deal

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2679[/ATTACH]It didn't come as a surprise that Scott Baker signed a contract just a couple weeks into this offseason. He's not the first recognizable pitcher to come off the board, as Bartolo Colon and Hisashi Iwakuma preceded him. Baker is, however, the first to land with a new team. And I think that does come as a surprise to a lot of people, given the Twins' well publicized efforts to bring him back. Baker didn't spend much time testing the open market, as his new one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Cubs was announced Tuesday. Including an additional $1.5 million in incentives, it's undeniably a great deal for the 31-year-old right-hander, and one that the Twins were wise not to try and match (assuming he gave them the chance). Baker is a very good pitcher when healthy, but he's eclipsed 175 innings only once in his career and guaranteeing him $5.5 million in his first season back from major elbow surgery – despite a saturated pitching market – seems crazy to me. The Cubs didn't even mitigate their risk by including a team option that might get them a bargain in 2014. Many pitchers don't return to full strength until their second year back from Tommy John. It's natural to wonder what led the hurler to sign elsewhere so quickly. People will inevitably think back to the weird exchanges that took place between Baker and Twins coaches when he was complaining of elbow soreness back in the spring. Was there friction there? He certainly didn't move on to the Cubs because winning was his highest priority, so there's a temptation to ascribe motives. Why would he ditch the organization that raised him, even if an extra million or two was being offered by another club? To me, this is a case where Baker just wanted to do what was best for him, and it's hard to argue with his decision. He's already 31 and won't have many more chances for a big payday. So, coming off surgery, he jumps on the chance to earn a nice guaranteed sum throwing in the more pitcher-friendly National League for a season. He's not tied down past next year so he'll have a chance to hit the market again after hopefully proving that his surgery was a success. Good for him. Meanwhile, the Twins quickly lose out on one of their most accessible options and have to readjust their plans after probably expecting they'd be able to bring Baker back. Your move, TR.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1166-Eyes-on-Torii

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2664[/ATTACH]It was right around this time in 2007 that Torii Hunter officially left the Twins, signing a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels. That total was more than most people thought he'd get in free agency, and it was widely believed that the Halos had overpaid, but Hunter made good on the deal, hitting .286/.352/.462 while averaging 21 homers over five seasons. Hunter just finished up the final year of that contract, and although he missed 22 games this season his production (.313/.365/.451, 16 HR, 92 RBI) suggests that he still has plenty in the tank at age 37. Now he enters free agency for just the second time in his career, and he'll be one of the more interesting guys to follow, especially from a local perspective. Naturally, many Twins fans are curious to see whether a reunion between Hunter and Minnesota could happen. He was very popular here and when asked back in May whether he'd be open to returning to the organization that drafted and developed him, the veteran outfielder responded in the affirmative, saying "That's my home." Of course, adding outfielders presently ranks near the bottom of Terry Ryan's list of priorities for this offseason. But that could change. What if the Twins were to trade Josh Willingham instead of, or in addition to, Denard Span? Suddenly the team needs a corner outfielder who can bridge the gap to prospects like Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks; surely Hunter would have to be viewed as an attractive option given that he'll presumably require a short commitment and offers power that could offset the loss of Willingham. As Hunter ages into his late 30s, his speed continues to diminish and he's becoming less of an asset defensively, even in right field. Still, from a marketing standpoint, he'd be a familiar star who would appeal to a stagnating fan base, and his right-handed bat would undeniably be a good fit in the Twins' lefty-dominated lineup. Will it happen? Probably not. The Twins would need to move several things around to make room for Hunter and he won't be cheap. Nevertheless, it's a fun talker here in the slow early days of the offseason.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1153-Assessing-Hellickson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2627[/ATTACH]The Rays, possessing a glut of quality starting pitchers and seeking an outfielder who can be an asset at the top of the order, have been pointed at frequently around here as a logical trade partner for the Twins. The Offseason Handbook specifically calls out James Shields and Wade Davis as potential targets in Tampa's pitching corps, and there are several other names that hold appeal. According to reports, the Rays hurler drawing the most interest is Jeremy Hellickson. This isn't surprising. He carries plenty of value as a young right-hander with a 3.06 career ERA and the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year trophy on his shelf. On the surface, he has the makings of a long-term top-of-the-rotation fixture. A deeper look, however, would suggest that Hellickson has been performing over his head to some degree in his first couple big-league seasons, making him a risky proposition for a Twins team that can ill afford to whiff on a major trade. I'm a big proponent of K/BB ratio as an indicator of a pitcher's outlook, and although his core numbers have been excellent Hellickson has simply been underwhelming in this category, with a 1.84 ratio in his first two full seasons. His success thus far has been buoyed to a large degree by a low BABIP and a high strand rate. There's plenty of data indicating that neither of those factors can be consistently controlled by a pitcher in the long haul. None of this is to suggest that Hellickson isn't a good pitcher. He's very good. He was an elite prospect before joining the major-league ranks and for the most part you don't put up the kind of numbers he has as a 24/25-year-old in the AL East through sheer luck. I'm fully willing to believe that his game is tailored to produce quality numbers without big strikeout rates. His 9.8 K/9 rate in the minors even suggests that he's got some upside yet in the strikeout department despite a 6.1 mark in his first 400 MLB innings. But the Rays will justifiably be shopping him as a young star pitcher under team control for several years, and as such, they'll be demanding a sizable ransom. In my view, he's been performing at his ceiling and has much more room for regression than improvement going forward. I see him as a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy much more than a legitimate No. 1 or 2. That's certainly not a guy the Twins should be shying away from adding, but at what cost? Terry Ryan and Co. would be much better off identifying a talented pitcher with strong peripherals who has been underperforming and can be acquired at a discount, as opposed to Hellickson who embodies the flip side of that coin.

Honest question: What incentive would Baker have to tell reporters that the two sides are "far away" and that he's open to other teams if he'd already signed a contract? I understand that teams have a process for making these things public but that's pretty far-fetched.

I think the Rays trust Jennings to play center. I don't think they trust him to bad leadoff. Tampa Bay got a .314 OBP from the No. 1 spot in the order this year and .304 from the two-hole. You've gotta believe a stat-centric organization like that is going to be heavily targeting affordable high-OBP options to plug into the top of the lineup, particular since it would lessen their reliance on a breakout year from Jennings, who was nothing special this year. Joe Christensen recently called my suggested Shields for Span-and-Hermsen deal far-fetched. And when I think about it, maybe he's right. But I can see plenty of reasons that the Rays would be extremely interested in acquiring Span.

Angels sent over $1 million in the deal so the Royals are paying $12M, not $13M. A bit more than the 1 year, $9M contract we predicted in the Handbook but not a ton and we all know the mantra about one-year deals. This is an indication that the Royals are serious about revamping their pitching staff and giving it a go next year, though I'm not at all convinced it's going to work out.

I doubt he'd sign an incentive-laden deal. Those usually only go to guys coming off major injuries, and Izturis has played 100-plus games in each of the last two years which ain't bad for a utility guy. With that said, I actually find him pretty intriguing, especially if he can hack it at shortstop.

I see that a few people have posted their own blueprints for the Twins' offseason, either on the forum or in a blog post, and that's great. But I thought it would create a thread where we can collect everyone's takes in one place and get a look at the various directions people think the club should go this winter. Please feel free to post your suggested course for the Terry Ryan and the front office below, whether it's aimed at getting the team back to contention in 2013 or starting a more long-term rebuilding effort. Include any moves you'd make, your projected 25-man Opening Day roster and a projected payroll. If you have one, use your Offseason Handbook to identify free agents and trade targets, and fill in financial details.

I fail to see how that's relevant. There was no way they were going to pick up the option so buying it out was a necessity regardless of their interest. This wouldn't be the first time a team bought out a player's option and then re-signed him to a more reasonable deal – just look at Jake Peavy.

This shouldn't be a consideration, in my opinion. The Twins shouldn't let public perception of a potential move dictate whether they do it or not. If it's a good baseball decision, you make it happen. Certainly they should move on if he's looking for anything more than a couple million, but I'm not sure he'll be able to do so. He ranks pretty low on the list of free agent relievers and the Twins won't be all over him early driving up the price again. Also, saying a "middle-handed reliever is not needed right now" is awfully cavalier based on out-of-nowhere performances from a couple injury-prone guys in their late 20s. I like Burton and Fien as much as the next guy but it doesn't hurt to hedge your bets a little bit.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1133-Capps-Redux

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2588[/ATTACH]In recent days, the Twins have announced a few procedural moves that weren't especially surprising. Among them were the decisions to decline 2013 options for Scott Baker and Matt Capps, which would have paid $9.25 million and $6 million, respectively. With both hurlers coming off seasons severely affected by injuries, there was no incentive for the Twins to pay such a high price when they could easily negotiate a better deal in free agency. They have already begun trying to do so with Baker, who told reporters that his side has been talking with the club and that "we're not close, but we're definitely closer than when it started." There's been no such steam surrounding Capps, who unlike Baker actually pitched this year, although his health and effectiveness were issues for a second consecutive campaign. Even if they're not currently engaged with Capps and his agent, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the offseason the Twins opened a conversation to see what kind of deal could be struck. And, despite the justifiably negative connotations that surround the former closer here in Minnesota, that wouldn't necessarily be the worst idea in the world. Capps was overpaid in 2011, when he earned $7.15 million to post a 4.25 ERA over 65 2/3 innings, converting only 15 of 24 saves while misguidedly pitching through forearm pain. He took a pay cut this year, re-signing for $4.75 million, but again proved overpaid as shoulder problems limited him to less than 30 innings. After back-to-back disappointing seasons, Capps figures to land a reduced contract as a setup man during the offseason. And, on those terms, he's really not a terrible bet. It bears noting that when he was healthy this year, the right-hander pitched reasonably well, posting a 3.68 ERA while allowing only 28 hits and four walks in his 29 1/3 innings of work. This continued a career-long trend of limiting baserunners, as Capps has registered a 1.19 WHIP in his seven uneven seasons as a big-leaguer. Keeping mean off base has generally been a reliable skill for him, and is a good recipe for success even when you're not able to rack up many strikeouts. By no means is Capps a great pitcher, and after the last few seasons I'm sure most Twins fans would eagerly watch him walk off into the sunset never to return. Nevertheless, as a 29-year-old with his value as low as it's ever been, he could be a relative bargain if signed later in the offseason to a one-year deal, provided the Twins aren't tempted to pay him as – or use him as – a closer.