Nick Nelson

I think we've finally found an instance where the Twins' situation has played to their advantage. There were likely many teams who would've jumped at the chance to add Harden on a no-risk minor-league deal, but Minnesota offers him the best opportunity. Torn capsule surgeries are very tough to come back from, but he'll be a fun wild card to have in the mix. I'd be interested to see if he held up better as a reliever.

That's the price of pitching in today's market, and it's not likely to get any better. If the Twins want to improve their staff before some of these prospects hopefully come up and make an impact, then overpaying is really their only choice. They have the money so I don't really see the downside. You failed to mention that these back-of-the-rotation types are also getting way more than they're worth.

Have we really reached a point where Terry Ryan is being blasted for failing to acquire John freaking Lannan? Really?

Right. I can't say I'm positive of the details, but I think Baker had his proflexor tendon cleaned up (the original reason for the surgery) in addition to the TJ, which was added in mid-operation. I'd be curious to hear whether that lengthens the rehab timeline. In any event, pitchers are coming back from Tommy John quicker than ever these days, though you wouldn't know it as a Twins fan. As things stand, Pelfrey is two years younger than Baker and his arm has held up better to the rigors of the major leagues, so I'd bet on him bouncing back more quickly. That's a big reason I prefered him on a one-year deal.

I imagine no one would deny that Ryan has been unsuccessful on the free agent market. He doesn't spend competitive dollars there, never has. Bargain bin players tend to have a low rate of success. Here's the thing: we don't know if it's because of his mindset or a mindset that is imposed upon him by ownership. The Pohlads are shrewd business folks and big-name free agents are generally bad (though you could argue necessary) investments. I have a hard time believing that Ryan would not like to add a top-tier pitcher if he had free reign to do so. Simply makes no sense. He wants to field a good team and he obviously doesn't think Kevin Correia is better than Anibal Sanchez. Classic.

At no point in the article did I compare the current group to last year's Opening Day rotation. What I said was that if I'm Terry Ryan, I have a hard time feeling confident that this unit will perform significantly better overall than last year's. I'm not saying that the present outlook is worse, I just don't know that it's much better. Of the five pitchers I listed as the top candidates, two are coming back from TJ surgery and four have never thrown a pitch in the American League. Outside of Pelfrey, there is a total of ONE MLB season with 175+ IP in the entire collection (Correia in 2009). That's a lot of uncertainty and if they moved forward counting on the five guys I mentioned, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have to once again dip into Triple-A repeatedly. Also, I'm not assuming that Ryan is done by any means. This is a snapshot of the current situation, nothing more. As I said, I believe it would help a lot to add an established quality pitcher that can push others down the depth chart, and there are still some guys like that out there. The fact of the matter is that we haven't seen the Twins tied to such players, and instead we see them popping up next to names like Freddy Garcia.

I still think you're drastically exaggerating the degree to which I was "cherrypicking the negatives" of Baker's contract, and you've yet to prove otherwise. I was surprised to see an unexceptional pitcher who'd never been able to string together two straight healthy seasons get over $5 million guaranteed off Tommy John. That's it.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1263-State-of-the-Starting-Corps

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2923[/ATTACH]Through free agent signings and trades, the Twins have added three names to their 2013 starting pitching mix, along with a couple prospects who can help down the line. As we assess the progress of this rebuilding unit, can we say with assurance that the three MLB pitchers they've added – Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey – are significantly better than the three that just exited as free agents – Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Scott Baker? I don't know that we can, and that is troubling. Here's a look at how the best-case starting five would shake out if everything stayed the same: 1. Scott Diamond 2. Vance Worley 3. Kevin Correia 4. Mike Pelfrey 5. Kyle Gibson It's got the makings of a below-average rotation, with a chance to be respectable but a greater chance to blow up, especially with flimsy defensive support. Keep in mind that the last two on the list won't necessarily be ready to pitch in the majors right off the bat. Behind these five names, the depth chart is an assortment of major question marks, including Liam Hendriks, Nick Blackburn, Sam Deduno, Cole De Vries and Brian Duensing. It was quite clear last year that none of those players had what it took to start in the majors, so it'd be somewhat surprising if any (save for perhaps Hendriks) suddenly turned a corner and became an adequate piece. Long story short, the Twins' immediate starting pitching outlook remains dreary. At this point, the addition of even one established quality starter would go a long way toward improving the unit's overall chances at staying afloat next season, but it's unclear Terry Ryan intends to do that. As things stand, it's impossible for me to believe he could look at his current group and feel confident that they're likely to perform a whole lot better than last year's.

So what you're saying is that Baker and Pelfrey are the same player, and therefore any differing analysis of the two signings must be an example of inconsistency? I think I did a pretty thorough job of explaining my preference for Pelfrey's deal over Baker's in the initial response, which you apparently glossed over. Baker is a talented pitcher with upside who has rarely been reliable in his career. I think you're overvaluing him, a lot. That doesn't mean I love Pelfrey. I don't think there's a huge difference between the two. The reason the article seemed so "positive" is because it was framed – I thought pretty clearly – against the Correia signing. As I've already said, I prefer both Baker and Pelfrey to Correia. Had Baker been signed a week after Correia, I probably would have had a similar "Well, at least this is an improvement" reaction. You could hardly come away from what I wrote thinking I'm excited about it. And yes, obviously my perspective has been altered by all the money that's been thrown around since Baker signed. I imagine that's true for a lot of people.

Again with the Scott Baker crap Lev? It's time to move on. Not sure why you feel the need to relive the same argument every time any move is made. I don't view Baker or Pelfrey as great fits for the Twins on one-year deals, but both are highly preferable to Correia's two-year deal. I wouldn't say my post was a ringing endorsement of this signing, more an observation that it makes a lot more sense than Ryan's first splash. I will, however, say that Pelfrey is to me a more proven commodity than Baker. He has been healthy and good at the same time more often, despite being more than two years younger. His arm has held up FAR better than Baker's throughout his career. That's not irrelevant when you're talking about who's going to bounce back better from a major arm injury. Also, their surgeries took place two weeks apart. It is a negligible difference.

Thanks for the feedback spycake. This is good input. Some of these issues result from from limitations of the platform we're using, but we'll look into ways we can address these things.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1261-Health-Permitting-Pelfrey-Could-Deliver

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2911[/ATTACH]Terry Ryan hasn't exactly sugarcoated his approach to repairing the Twins' woeful pitching staff this offseason. It's about quantity, not quality. "We've got numbers," the general manager said last week. "It's just a matter of who is going to emerge. Some guys will be injured. Some will fall by the wayside. Some won't be ready. But we have to have numbers." Ryan is apparently poised to increase that number again, with reports arising over the weekend that he's agreed to terms with right-hander Mike Pelfrey on a one-year deal. The 28-year-old has pitched in the Mets organization since being drafted in the first round back in 2005. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year, and became a free agent after New York non-tendered him in November. Looking past the injury, the Pelfrey signing doesn't seem much different from last week's uninspiring Kevin Correia acquisition on the surface. Both are back-of-rotation hurlers with low strikeout rates and no experience pitching in the American League. But there are a few key differentiators that should make you feel considerably better about this move: 1. Contract. Whereas the Twins mysteriously made a two-year commitment to Correia, Pelfrey gets a one-year pact with only $4 million guaranteed (he can earn another $1.5 million in incentives). It's a low base – especially in the context of this offseason – and the signing has no impact on the club's payroll beyond this year. The "no such thing as a bad one-year contract" mantra rings true here. 2. Durability. This might seem like an odd selling point given that Pelfrey is coming off major elbow surgery, but he totaled 184 innings or more in each of the four seasons prior. That's a mark that Correia has topped only once in his career. Or, as a more relevant example, it's a mark that Scott Baker – who is older and received more guaranteed money from the Cubs – has only reached once. Up until the torn elbow ligament, Pelfrey was a workhorse. It will be interesting to see if any kind of innings limit is instituted next year, but seeing as how he's trying to rebuild his value I have to think he'd be opposed. 3. Upside. Correia is 32 and has basically been mediocre or worse throughout his career. Conversely, Pelfrey is 28, was the ninth overall pick in the draft and was ranked by Baseball America as the game's 20th-best prospect after dominating the minors in his first pro season. Even coming off major surgery, I like Pelfrey better than Correia. But he's another contact-heavy guy joining a staff that is already full of them. That could be a recipe for trouble considering this team's defensive question marks. With Denard Span and Ben Revere out of the picture, it's entirely possible that the Twins won't have a single starter on the field who is a true asset at his position with the glove. Pelfrey's addition isn't likely to dramatically boost the overall quality of the rotation, but he's another potentially useful major-league arm to throw in the mix and while his style is doesn't stand out from what the Twins already have, his pedigree and background certainly do. As we know all too well, the path back from Tommy John surgery tends to include numerous setbacks and tribulations. Who knows, maybe they'll get lucky and Pelfrey will quickly regain his old form, establishing value at the trade deadline or perhaps even prompting the Twins to consider an extension. If he fizzles, their long-term plans will not be affected. Tough to criticize the move from that standpoint. Yet, while the Pelfrey signing is fine in isolation, combined with last week's Correia signing it's a sign that Ryan and the Twins are resigned to scraping the bargain bin for pitching help, despite the fact that it's December, not Feburary, and there is supposedly plenty of payroll flexibility. That's harder to figure.

I haven't heard much about him. I'm wondering if teams are worried about his elbow. I'd have to think 3/35 would be plenty to get it done but in this market, who knows.

My thoughts exactly. I'll be satisfied to hear that Ryan at least made a serious run at some of these respectable names. I can't blame him if he gets outbid or the guy simply prefers to go elsewhere, but there's no excuse for this "kicked the tires but no formal offer" business. Just make a serious effort to land someone who can make your team better.

Even with where they were at the start of the offseason.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1256-Twins-Should-Strike-While-Stove-is-Hot

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2899[/ATTACH]As the slow early weeks of this offseason dragged on, we kept hearing the same refrain: Just wait until Zack Greinke signs. Then all of the dominoes will begin to fall. True story. We're seeing it now. On Monday, the Dodgers announced they'd signed the game's premier free agent to a monstrous six-year, $147 million deal. In the days since, other top names have begun to quickly come off the board. On Thursday, the Angels landed Josh Hamilton with a five-year, $125 million offer. Shortly after that came to light, Bob Nightengale reported that Anibal Sanchez – the consensus No. 2 free agent pitcher – had signed a five-year, $75 million contract with the Cubs, though he later backtracked. Sanchez is now playing Chicago against Detroit, and his price will likely be driven up. It's pretty compelling stuff, really. Overshadowed by those huge headlines was Ryan Dempster's signing with the Red Sox. The right-hander agreed to terms on a two-year, $26.5 million deal that looks downright reasonable in comparison to some of these other sums being thrown around. According to Doogie Wolfson's source, the Twins "kicked the tires" on Dempster but "never made a formal offer." Terry Ryan's done a whole lot of tire-kicking this winter, but appears content to walk away with nothing but scuffed shoes and empty hands, at least when it comes to the middle tier of starters. We've heard the Twins connected to names like Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Francisco Liriano and Joe Blanton, but there's been no steam with higher-grade options such as Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson. Why not take a shot at Dempster? The Twins could have outbid the Red Sox and still been comfortably short of last year's budget. Dempster has his warts, for sure. He'll turn 36 in May, and he got knocked around a bit after being traded to the AL this year. With the Rangers, he still averaged a strikeout per inning and pitched well after a couple early clunkers so I wouldn't worry too much about it. He has posted an ERA of 3.85 or below in four of the past five years and has averaged 200 innings over that span. He's a very solid starter, and his addition would send a message to fans that the Twins are truly committed to improving, now and in the future. Some might say that Boston is a more attractive destination for Dempster, which brings us to the theory that free agents flat-out don't want to sign in Minnesota. But the Sox have been more of a mess than the Twins over the last two seasons and Fenway is a pretty treacherous pitching environment, which matters for a guy who might try to score one more contract after this one. Apparently Ryan never made a serious bid, so it all becomes a moot point. Even if the Twins were low on Dempster, why not get legitimately involved with the likes of a Marcum or Jackson? The money is ostensibly there, and even if contention in the next year or two is unlikely, they need to get better. They need to keep playing meaningful games past the middle of July to counteract the attendance drain that has been hitting them in the late months. They need a proven veteran to lead a young and inexperienced staff, and the current senior Kevin Correia is not a credible candidate. Up to this point the Twins have essentially added no payroll for 2013. The Correia signing brings them back near even after they unloaded Denard Span's salary. With the big free agent names off the board, this is where Ryan should become active. These are the pitchers he should be in on. He might have to pay more than he'd like in order to play that game. In fact, he definitely will. But failing to even participate in the bidding would be a disservice to fans, as well as plain-old bad team-building. The current starting stable is completely devoid of reliable assets – Ryan admitted as much when surprisingly acknowledging that "there's no guarantee [Correia] will strengthen the group" – and that's just no way to proceed, even if the ultimate goal is to make a push further down the line. There is not a team in the league that should be more desperate for quality pitching than the Twins. Perhaps they should start acting like it.