Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3126[/ATTACH]He’s still lurking out there. As the offseason nears its close and spring training rapidly approaches, Matt Capps remains a free agent. Since the Twins bought out his 2013 option back in October, there has been very little buzz surrounding the right-handed reliever. At this point, one would have to believe that he could easily be signed to a fairly cheap one-year deal. Should the Twins be the ones to give it to him? At the beginning of the offseason, Terry Ryan surprisingly stated that his No. 2 priority behind starting pitching was the bullpen. Unless you're confident that Rich Harden is going to become a quality reliever or one of the various iffy minor-league arms they brought in will pan out, nothing has really been done to address that unit as of yet. Capps invokes a lot of strong emotions for Twins fans – mostly negative. The team gave up too much to acquire him in the first place and spent too much to retain him, myopically focusing on his experience as a closer rather than viewing him as what he is: a perfectly serviceable yet unspectacular righty arm for the late innings. Now, the Twins have their closer in Glen Perkins, and overpaying for Capps is no longer a real concern. Relievers don’t typically land big contracts in late January, and even if Terry Ryan were to pay a bit more in a one-year pact than we’d like, it doesn’t really matter as that money isn’t going to prevent him from making any moves he would have otherwise. There are enough intriguing arms in the mix for relief jobs this year that one could envision the Twins cobbling together a decent unit without any additions, but Capps would immediately become one of their most established players and would increase the margin for error if, say, Jared Burton’s injury issues reemerge or Casey Fien regresses. Capps wasn’t a great closer and his strikeout rate has plummeted in the past two seasons, coinciding with a velocity drop, but his 1.17 WHIP during that span is quite solid and he’s still under 30. As long as there aren’t major lingering questions about his health, he seems like a good bet to be an average middle reliever at worst, and a reliable setup man at best. That would make him an asset. Even if his ability to protect leads ends up mattering little in what’s shaping up to be another down year, a bounceback campaign would position him to be flipped for something of value around the deadline (albeit not a Wilson Ramos). Capps has caused me and others plenty of frustration over the past few years, but if you take away all that history he looks like a fine, logical option for a team looking to shore up its rotation with a solid veteran. The Twins are familiar with Capps and clearly value his presence in the clubhouse. Why not go out and get him, adding a slight jolt to this winter of inaction?

The trades were necessary, good moves. But framing them as an either/or with a more aggressive approach in free agency makes no sense.

Lighten up and cut it out. There's no need to drag this bickery muck onto every thread. Plenty of people have argued some variation of the "good players won't sign with bad teams" spiel; stop taking everything as a personal affront. Anyway, as far as Marcum goes... sigh. I'm going to have to assume there were some serious red flags with the elbow because the Twins aren't the only ones who missed the boat on this guy.

There's a pretty big gap between signing Kevin Correia and a "big splash." You're overstating people's expectations. And while I'm certainly willing to admit that some of the pitchers who signed for more than Correia will be mediocre back-end pitchers, not all will. I'd like to think the Twins' evaluators could put together an educated guess. That is their job, right? It's not that I think they don't know what they're doing. I'm sure they have a plan in place. But the fact that their plan causes a hardcore fans like yourself to "shrug (your) shoulders at the present" is beyond disappointing and an insult to guys like Mauer and Morneau if they go out and put together big years.

Yes, I agree that the Tigers are favorites on paper. That means no one in the division should try? The Twins should just submit and say, "Well, maybe in three years we'll have a better team than you"? What kind of attitude is that? People were saying the same things about the Tigers last year when they signed Prince. They ended up winning 88 games and barely taking the division, despite having a Triple Crown MVP. I hate to invoke such a hackneyed phrase, but the game ain't played on paper.

Most would give positive marks to the Span and Revere trades. I certainly would. But because they dealt away a couple quality players for some good prospects they get a free pass on the rest of the offseason? What else have they done this winter to give you the impression that they even give a damn? For the most pitching-desperate team in baseball, with $25 million in supposedly available payroll, to come away from the FA market with Correia, Pelfrey and Harden is shameful.

Things don't always work out for a team that looks great on paper at the beginning of a season. The Marlins and Red Sox are fine recent examples. And the Twins have been contenders in the AL Central with mediocre rotations as recently as 3-4 years ago. There was nothing absurdly homerish about what he said. I guess I'm missing the post where he stated the Twins would suddenly become division favorites with an average pitching staff.

Look, I know the negativity gets old, but what do you expect? Slashing payroll and signing sub par bargain-bin players to "improve" a team that has lost nearly 100 games in two straight years is a slap in the face for paying fans. People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.

Yes, he is the general manager and the chief executive. Comes with the territory. He's the highest-profile member of the front office and also quite likely the most highly paid. What is your point?

I wouldn’t say it’s clear that this is a new approach. The Twins have sought these kinds of young arms through trade and the draft frequently in the past. Look at Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Matt Garza. It’s never translated to the free agent market because they refuse to pay for those kinds of players once they’re established.

Pavano's stats in his first two years with the Twins were actually pretty good, far better than anything we've seen from Correia. Not a strong comp.

Please guys, stop nipping at each other and stay on topic.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1328-For-Better-or-Worse-Trevor-Plouffe

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3115[/ATTACH]Stability at third base and right-handed power have been in short supply for the Twins over the past decade or so. Trevor Plouffe has developed into one of the team’s most interesting commodities because he has the potential to fill both needs, and could do so at a relatively low cost for the next several years. As a homegrown talent, Plouffe is precisely the type of player the Twins want to structure their rebuild around, but clearly they still hold reservations about him. Inconsistency and defensive question marks have plagued him throughout his career and continue to keep decision-makers on the fence about his value going forward. He’s 26 and entering his first season with a full-time MLB job secured, so this campaign will be critical toward determining his future with the team. 2012 Recap To call Plouffe’s midseason tear a “hot streak” seems to undersell it. For an extended period of time last year, he was a scorching inferno, incinerating everything he came into contact with. I mean, seriously, 18 homers in 39 games? A .638 slugging percentage over a two-month stretch? That’s silly. Those numbers aren’t possible for a player that doesn’t possess some serious talent. Of course, Plouffe’s ability has never really been in question. There’s a reason the Twins drafted him in the first round and moved him steadily through their system despite relatively modest numbers in the lower levels. With his size, his strength and his quick wrists, Plouffe has always displayed above-average pop for a middle infielder. Through his first 222 major-league games, the downside is that he’s been nudged out of the middle infield, but the upside is that his power may be on a higher plane than simply “above-average.” At one point last year Plouffe was on pace to finish with 40 home runs, and while the late-season swoon that caused him to finish with 24 could be viewed as an inevitable regression to the mean, there was also a debilitating thumb injury in play. It sidelined him for a few weeks and undoubtedly affected him down the stretch. Why He’ll Be Worse The big question is to what degree Plouffe’s thumb injury derailed his performance. Quite possibly it was a minor factor, and the larger problem was that pitchers adjusted and started attacking him in ways he couldn’t adapt to. In both the minors and majors, the infielder has historically had problems controlling the strike zone. In his first MLB stint back in 2010, he struck out 14 times and drew zero walks in 44 plate appearances, batting .146. His K/BB rates have improved in two seasons since, but last year’s 97/35 mark was still ugly and contributed heavily to a .235 batting average. Plouffe can send the ball a mile when he connects, but his long swing has holes, and no one can exploit those holes like major-league pitchers. If hurlers continue to stay one step ahead of him, as they have been for the majority of his big-league career outside of a few windows, his batting average and OBP will continue to falter and he’ll struggle to coax mistake pitches that end up in the seats. His defense is obviously another concern. Although he showed some impressive skills at the hot corner last year, you get the sense that the Twins weren’t especially happy with his glovework overall. If he doesn’t make the necessary improvements they might simply give up on the idea of him as a regular infielder. Moving to the outfield or DH would ding his value, particularly in light of this organization’s drastic need for productive infield bats. Why He’ll Be Better Skeptics have suggested that Plouffe’s superhuman stretch last year was a fluke, pointing out that there was no precedent for that type of outburst in his track record. This may be true to some extent, but it’s worth noting that Plouffe had a similar run at Triple-A in 2011, where he hit went deep 15 times in 51 games with a .635 slugging percentage. In his first six pro seasons Plouffe never topped 13 bombs but in the past three years between Triple-A and the majors he has hit 17, 23 and 24 homers. At the beginnings of those seasons he was 23, 24 and 25 years old. To me, he profiles very much as a guy coming into his own as he approaches his physical prime and adjusts to the competition at the highest levels. It would be much easier to label last year’s breakout an outlier if it weren't preceded by several seasons of steady improvement. The careers of most ballplayers follow a bell curve and it’s quite possible that Plouffe has not yet reached his precipice. Conclusion Over the past two seasons, Plouffe has hit more home runs than any Twin not named Josh Willingham, and he’s accomplished that despite playing only 200 total games and being one of the youngest players on the roster. If he can stay healthy and continue his trend of improvement this year, there’s little reason to believe he won’t top 30 homers and become a tremendous asset in a lineup core that has a chance to be quite potent.

The thing is, that 2000 team didn't have any star players. I'd say the best case is closer to 2008, a season which reflected the impact that Mauer and Morneau can have. Take a look at that team around them – mediocre rotation, several lineup holes, key player lost to injury (Cuddyer). Still came within a game of making the playoffs. I hear people say, why bother spending to get better if you can't realistically contend for a title, but I think that's a baffling viewpoint. How much more fun was that 2008 season than the last two? That was the year after Santana and Hunter departed, a season that was billed quite openly as one for rebuilding. And so the Twins hacked down payroll and took the cheap route in free agency, filling holes with players like Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb and Adam Everett. Because, I mean, why spend money when you're rebuilding? Great call. Missed the playoffs by one game.

If they are to somehow reach .500 this year, won’t we be wondering why they didn’t pick up a decent free agent at a position of need this offseason? I understand the argument that the team is likely to become better and better positioned for success moving forward, as their top prospects get older and start entering the fold. But there are also things that can change for the worse going forward. What if Morneau and Pelfrey have good seasons and then leave as free agents, creating new holes? What if one of the young pitchers they’re counting on blows out his elbow next spring and misses the 2014 season? What if this year is Willingham’s/Doumit’s last healthy and productive one in a Twins uniform? I just don’t understand making no real effort to improve the immediate quality of your product when you’ve got a 30-year-old Joe Mauer making $23 million, and a bunch of pretty good players around him. Makes absolutely no sense to me. There are times where it’s logical to throw the towel in on a season before it begins but this isn’t one of them.

Joe Saunders by ERA+ over the last three years: 92, 107, 103. Kevin Correia by ERA+ over the last three years: 68, 78, 88. Saunders has also thrown 120 more innings during that span and is a year younger. I don't think anyone here is mesmerized by his 17-win season and certainly he's not the ideal counterbalance to their pitch-to-contact group, but he has established himself as a solid MLB pitcher and that's what the Twins need.

This is sort of what I was trying to hint at in my post today. It's pretty optimistic to believe the Twins are going to build a contender around their current wave of prospects as soon as 2014 or even 2015. As drjim notes, it would require the vast majority of the guys they're counting on to stay healthy and on track (or in many cases ahead of expected schedule), which usually just isn't how it goes. At this point in 2015, Hicks, Arcia, Meyer, May, Sano and Hendriks will all be 25 or younger – not even into their "prime" years yet.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1320-The-Scope-of-a-Rebuild