Nick Nelson

We all understand that it's a business. I personally think it's bad business to blatantly lie to your customers and to refuse to invest in giving them a better product. Do you really believe they'll be operating in the red if they spend over $80M? I didn't realize Target Field had dropped back down to Metrodome revenues after three years. The notion is especially ridiculous when you consider the TV money that's about to be dropping on them.

I've become convinced that this is the go-to rebuttal for people on the other side of this debate, even though it makes no sense and -- as you mentioned -- no one is saying that. Definition of a strawman that won't die. This became clear to me in the following exchange I had with Seth on the "Under-Delivering" thread (not to pick on you Seth, but I found this amusing):

I'd definitely go 2/15 but I'm guessing he'll get more than that.

I don't know that anyone realistically believed the Twins could have -- or should have -- signed all three of those guys. One would have been nice. Mackey did some statistical work in the linked column showing projections that have the Twins' staff, as currently assembled, shaving 100 runs off last year's total and allowing 730 this year. Trim another 20 or so off that (which could conceivably be done by signing a superior pitcher to Correia) and you're talking about a middle-of-the-pack pitching staff. Certainly not going to make you a division favorite on paper, but with a good offense it's enough to potentially keep you afloat with an outside shot at hanging in the race. Take a look at the 2008 and 2009 Twins, both of which allowed far more than 730 runs (granted, in a more offense-heavy setting). Mackey's projections were ostensibly aimed at proving that the Twins are too far away from competitiveness to warrant spending on a legitimate rotation upgrade, but in my mind he did the exact opposite.

This sounds like something we might have read about Jason Marquis a year ago. No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years. If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime? There's no need for this kind of vitriol in every post, Lev. You can disagree with people's points without using such insulting language.

Lohse would technically qualify as the acquisition that actually bolsters the Twins' rotation, but it'd be tough to get excited about giving up a draft pick to sign him in their current state.

It's not about spending just to spend. The Twins had some of the worst pitching in baseball last year and spending money is the only way to improve that unit in the short-term without forfeiting assets in a trade. I wouldn't say I'm "incredibly upset," but as a fan of the team and a person who spends considerable money at the ballpark every year, I am frustrated. I think all fans should feel the same way. We're owed better than this, especially after the last two years. I understand that you're excited to see some new prospects break in over the next couple years, and I am too. But I'd sure like to see them surrounded by some better veterans. Filling your roster with low-cost young players doesn't do a whole lot of good if you're not going to spend the extra money to fill needs that can't be addressed by your farm system.

Then you are missing the point. It's not about spending to spend. It's about spending to make the team better. Yep. Right around the time it became apparent that the Twins wouldn't make competitive offers for any of them.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1298-Under-Delivering

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3038[/ATTACH]In his latest column for ESPN 1500, Phil Mackey opens with the following statement: "Unlike in the previous two offseasons, there will be no over-promising and under-delivering by the Minnesota Twins in 2013." Incidentally, that's pretty much exactly how I would describe this offseason for the Twins. Over-promising and under-delivering. Terry Ryan talked at length in the early days of winter about moving aggressively to upgrade the club's beleaguered pitching corps, and because I tend to trust Ryan, I bought into his stated commitment. In his interview for the Offseason Handbook, Ryan stated that the Twins would pursue a "pretty darn good pitcher" in free agency. In a subsequent interview with MLB Network, he responded to a question about his apparent rebuilding approach by saying "I think that's a good excuse to fail. I don't have much interest in telling people we're playing for 2015. We need to get going here, we've had two tough years… We've got to quit talking about building for the future." All of that rhetoric certainly falls short of what we've actually seen this offseason, however. Ryan made a couple nice trades for the long-term, swapping out Denard Span and Ben Revere for some intriguing young arms, but his short-term strategy has been puzzling to say the least. Kevin Correia was the team's top "prize" in free agency, followed by fliers on a couple reclamation projects in Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden. By nearly all accounts, the Twins have made very little effort to outbid the competition for remotely high-profile names. Now, with at least $15 million in supposedly available payroll remaining, Ryan is "likely done making significant moves." In his ESPN 1500 interview, the Twins' general manager attempted to put a realistic slant on the coming season, noting that making the playoffs would be ideal but is unlikely. This is probably what Mackey was getting at with his opening line, but even Ryan's adjusted goal of playing meaningful baseball in September looks like a reach based on the moves he's made. When your pitching staff ranks as one of the worst in the game, it takes more than a couple low-end stopgap solutions to foster significant improvement, and the club's hesitance to put more of its available funds toward tapping into that middle tier of starters suggests a level of commitment that is not in line with their purported resolve. Up to this point, the Twins have spent minimally in addressing their pitiful rotation via free agency, and if payroll remains around its current ~$80 million mark, it will be $15 million lower than it was last year and $30 million lower than 2011. Heck, right now the number is closer to where it was in 2007 in the Metrodome than where it's been any year at Target Field. Payroll isn't everything, of course, but the amount that the Twins are willing to spend says a lot about their true desire to promptly right the ship, especially with such drastic needs in the starting corps and so many free agent pitchers inking deals. Maybe Ryan and Co. really do believe they've done enough to position this team for a leap forward in 2013. Perhaps they're confident in the ability of internal options to step up, or they have some reason to believe Pelfrey and Harden will be healthy and productive that I'm not aware of. Perhaps there's another move coming and the quotes we're seeing are intended to flip the script by under-promising and over-delivering. Right now that's feeling like wishful thinking. If what we see is what we're going to get, this season is shaping up to be more of the same, and despite their adamant claims to the contrary the organization doesn't appear all that fiercely determined to prevent such an outcome.

Have you ever stood next to LeBron James? I think it would change your definition of "incredibly athletic."

I think "2 brilliant trades" is a little strong. The Twins got back some good young arms for some good established outfielders. Worley is merely solid and neither of the pitching prospects they received has succeeded above Single-A yet, so I think it's a little soon to make such proclamations.

"A shorter version of LeBron James"? Maybe a bit of a reach.

"Unlike in the previous two offseasons, there will be no over-promising and under-delivering by the Minnesota Twins in 2013." All I could think of was the "pretty darn good pitcher" quote when I read this. In truth, I don't disagree with Ryan's quote in the original post, but that statement doesn't really jibe with his actions. He hasn't made the necessary improvements to put this club in position to be playing meaningful games in September, IMO.

Yeah, I never gave much credibility to the notion that there was a great need to address this unit, but he's really failed to back up his rhetoric thus far.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1290-Rounding-Out-the-Bullpen

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3024[/ATTACH]The past two seasons have been filled with disappointment and negative outcomes, but one of the few resoundingly encouraging developments has been the emergence of Glen Perkins at the back end of the bullpen. After fizzling as a starter, Perkins made a supremely successful transition to relief duty and, after signing a contract extension last year, he's in position to provide the Twins with stability at the closer spot for years to come, as long as he can stay healthy. The Twins value continuity in the closer role as much as any team in baseball, as evidenced by the hefty four-year extension they handed Joe Nathan back in 2008 and the considerable resources they invested into acquiring and retaining Matt Capps. Perkins has given us every reason to believe he can be relied upon to close out games for the foreseeable future, allowing the Twins to concentrate on building a bullpen around him and his reasonable contract. Early in the offseason, Terry Ryan cited the bullpen as his second-highest priority behind the rotation. In a way that makes sense, since being able to take a lead means nothing if you can't hold it, but there is clearly a lot less work to be done when it comes to the relief corps. Perkins is entrenched at closer and Jared Burton, who also inked an extension following a sensational Minnesota debut, is locked in as his top setup man. Beyond those two, you've got Brian Duensing, who has established himself as one of the league's better situational left-handed specialists. There's also Anthony Swarzak, a solid fit as the team's long reliever who is out of options and nearly assured a place on the roster. That's four slots in the bullpen that are as good as spoken for, barring injuries in spring training. So even if the Twins characteristically go with a 12-man pitching staff out of the gates, they'll have only three spots left to fill. With a number of candidates vying for jobs, competition figures to be brisk. The picture is already a bit crowded, so it seems rather unlikely that Ryan will be seeking out anymore external help, even though contracts like the one Jason Frasor signed last week with the Rangers suggest that reasonable deals can be had. Here are some of the internal candidates with defensible cases for claiming one of the remaining gigs: Casey Fien, RHP: Fien was something of a journeyman when the Twins acquired him on a minor-league deal last year, but he quietly posted excellent numbers in the second half after an early July call-up. The 29-year-old allowed runs in only two of his first 21 appearances as a Twin and finished with a 2.06 ERA and 32-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 35 innings. He'll have a hard time repeating that performance but it'd be tough to deprive him of a spot based on merit. Alex Burnett, RHP: Like Fien, Burnett finished with a good ERA last year (3.52) but his overall production was far less impressive, as it included an ugly 36-to-26 K/BB ratio and 1.35 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings. Oddly, despite a mid-90s fastball and a sharp slider, Burnett's ability to strike out major-league hitters has waned over time, and last year his K-rate ranked as the second-worst among qualifying MLB relievers (ahead of only Jeff Gray). If he maintains those peripherals he's a poor bet for continued success, but considering his heavy usage and adequate results last year, it's hard to see him being left out. Rich Harden, RHP: The Twins haven't stated their intentions with Harden, who has mostly been a starter over the course of his career, but it stands to reason that they could give him a shot in the bullpen, where his outstanding raw stuff could make an impact and his workload could be better managed. If it works out, Harden could be a great asset in the late innings. Ryan Pressly, RHP: Selected from Boston in the Rule 5 draft, Pressly had success after converting from starter to reliever last year and his high-velocity stuff clearly caught the Twins' attention. He's nowhere near ready for the majors based on his track record, but if the Twins roster him they'll either have to send him back to the Red Sox or work out a trade. Tyler Robertson, LHP: He struggled with walks and homers in his first taste of the majors last year, but Robertson also showed some positive signs, averaging over a strikeout per inning and shutting down lefties. If the Twins desire a secondary lefty specialist in the bullpen behind Duensing (since Perkins doesn't really count) Robertson is a logical choice. Anthony Slama, RHP: The Twins seemingly have very little interest in giving him a chance, but Slama's ridiculous numbers in Triple-A last year make him a necessary inclusion on this list. It sure would be nice to see what he could do against major-league hitters with an extended chance. Tim Wood, RHP: Wood was acquired on a minor-league deal earlier this winter after he proved very effective as the closer for Pittsburgh's Triple-A affiliate last year. He's 29 and his overall career numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he'll be in the mix by virtue of having a 40-man roster spot. The same goes for Josh Roenicke, a rubber-armed right-hander brought over from the Colorado organization. Who would you like to see rounding out the last two bullpen spots? Who else would you like to see in the mix?

I myself have said Gibson should probably start in the minors, but the more I think about it, the more I think he won't. He was essentially major-league ready when he got hurt, and last year he pitched basically the entire second half, working his way back up to Triple-A then making six starts in the AFL. The Twins are going to want to take their best five starters north from Ft. Myers. I'm pretty sure they view Gibson as one of those five and he'll likely reinforce that in spring training.

I think you've got the wrong idea about my level of expectations. I'm not necessarily asking for an "upper tier" pitcher and I'm certainly not asking for a 5-6 year contract (a whopping two of which have been signed this winter). There were plenty of guys signed or acquired on 2-3 year deals that I would have been satisfied with, including Santana, Guthrie, Blanton, McCarthy, Liriano, Dempster, Myers, Villanueva, etc. I just want to see some sort of commitment to making the team better and those guys have a much better chance to do so than Correia and Co. from almost any standpoint. For the most part I don't have much to add to what Brock's been saying. The notion that the Twins can't enter a multi-year deal due to upcoming payroll constraints is absurd. Their need for pitching spans well beyond this season and the cost to acquire it will only rise going forward.

It's not really an assumption. There have been reports from people I trust that the Twins never made formal offers to many guys that they seemingly should have. The team's execs have openly stated -- or at least given strong indications to reporters -- that they're not interested in paying market price for average pitching. And we continue to hear no buzz surrounding their interest in the decent remaining names, only that they're "ready to pounce on a bargain." I try not to be one to jump to baseless conclusions but you'd like to see the team's rhetoric and reporters' observations reflect the extremely urgent need for quality pitching. I can't help but be disheartened by the passive approach that they've taken publicly, and it causes me to have a hard time generating optimism that they'll do much else. With that said, I recognize that there are still possible moves to be made and I haven't passed judgment on this offseason yet. I thought that was clear from the last couple paragraphs of the article.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1281-Would-a-Six-Man-Rotation-Make-Sense