Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3097[/ATTACH]There is little debate over the fact that the Twins' moves this offseason haven't done much to help ensure significant improvement in 2013. This club seems to have its sights set fully on a target somewhere further down the line. Among fans and media, there seems to be a split between people who question this approach and those who accept it. Whatever your feelings on the matter, it's important to be realistic about the timeline for building a contending team around players that are currently in Double-A (or lower). It's also important to remain cognizant of the organization's outlook going forward. Minnesota's present payroll commitment for this year of about $80 million has been a much bandied number. But the numbers get more interesting as you start to look ahead. By using Jeremy Nygaard's excellent Roster & Payroll resource, we can see that in 2014 the team is tied up for about $45 million in six existing contracts. They will have many league-minimum youngsters and a number of players eligible for arbitration (many for the first time) but you could generously assume that $20 million will be more than enough to cover all that. It'd still leave them an Albert Pujols short of their 2012 level. The following year, with Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia, Jared Burton and Ryan Doumit eligible to come off the books, the Twins aren't attached to anyone beyond Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins. This organization has been burdened by some bad contracts in recent seasons, but in two years the Twins are looking at only $26 million in firmly committed money, which is undeniably an enviable position for a rebuilding team. They will have a great deal of flexibility to sign strong performers to contract extensions, fill holes that they can't patch internally and perhaps even make a blockbuster signing. It's not hard to see the big-picture wisdom in this strategy. At the same time, they would have had plenty of flexibility even if they splurged on more than the Correia and Mike Pelfrey types in an effort to boost the quality of their current product. And if they thought signing free agents has been challenging this winter, the competition for desirable players only figures to get tougher going forward with fewer options available and more teams eager to spend added revenues. It sounds like Terry Ryan is at least somewhat interested in luring Joe Saunders, which would change the complexion of this offseason somewhat, but if that doesn't happen and he moves forward with what he has, it would signal his belief in a few things. First, that the current pipeline will produce a core capable of taking this team to the next level, and quickly enough that the organization is not mired in this dismal state for three or four more years. Second, that the pieces he needs to add through free agency and trade (and there will be needs) will be available and will be better investments than pitchers added with multi-year deals now. Finally, that this year's team – which does feature a number of quality players between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Perkins and others – will not be particularly close to competitive and that he won't regret taking such minimal steps to provide them with legitimate help. I'm skeptical about all those things proving true, but they seem to be the gambles Ryan is prepared to take. He's the guy in charge and it's safe to say he knows a little more about this whole rodeo than me or any other fan expressing puzzlement with his approach, so with the season drawing near, I guess we'll just have to hop on board and hope for the best.

Agreed. We projected $1.75M in the Handbook based on his mixed history as a starter and reliever. Probably the only contract for a pitcher that we overestimated.

You know what decreases the likelihood of these contracts "blowing up in their faces"? Signing better pitchers. Just because the Twins almost never get much value out of a contract for a free agent pitcher doesn't mean it never happens. Perhaps they just need to change their approach (i.e. spend some money). No. I'm pointing out that they could spend that much and still be in fine shape. On him or Marcum or whoever. At this point people need to stop acting flabbergasted about the notion of overspending for a free agent pitcher.

Morneau was hopeless against lefties early in the season, but he gradually got better against them, which leads me to believe it was a symptom of rust. Southpaws seem to really test the reactions of left-handed hitters, and Morneau's reactions were not very sharp those first few months. That just comes with reps. You've got to keep in mind that for much of the 2010/11 offseasons Morneau couldn't even work out vigorously without getting dizzy. It takes a while to come back from that, and the wrist stuff hasn't helped, but I'm very encouraged by the fact that he seems to be back to his old routine this winter. Hard to overstate the impact that a 2009-caliber Morneau could have. That year, he had an .836 OPS against lefties, by the way.

If you look at what the Twins currently have committed for 2014, you'll see that they could add commit $10 million to Saunders and still have enough room to add Zack Greinke's salary before getting back to $100 million. AND they're getting a huge revenue boost from the TV deal next year. That's why I don't understand this reluctance to hand out multi-year deals at all.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1315-For-Better-or-Worse-Justin-Morneau

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3074[/ATTACH]Justin Morneau presents a paradox for the 2013 Twins. If the club is truly in full rebuild mode and is more interested in saving money than taking financial risks in a meaningful effort to compete -- as appears to be the case -- then why hang on to an expensive veteran with one year left on his contract? Surely some team out there would be willing to take on Morneau, although there probably wouldn't be much of a return in the swap. The answer, I believe, is that the Twins still view Morneau as a star-caliber core player -- albeit one who's been heavily burdened by injuries over the past couple years. Trading him for a minimal return at this point would be Terry Ryan's most appalling salary shed yet. If the first baseman jumps out to a hot start this year, his value could rise significantly, and the Twins appear to be counting on just that. 2012 Recap Morneau's campaign was very much a mixed bag. While it was a major step forward from the disastrous season that preceded it, his .773 OPS was slightly below the league average for first basemen and he failed to reach 140 games played for a fourth straight year. Given the circumstances, his effort has to be viewed as a considerable success, but when you take all that way he was simply a mediocre first baseman who missed nearly 20 percent of the season and cost $14 million. Of course, we know Morneau is better than that. And he showed flashes of it at times. But can he pull it all together? Why He'll Be Better Morneau's 2011 campaign was completely washed away by complications resulting from a 2010 concussion. That injury became less of an issue last year, but unfortunately several other ailments -- along with plain old rust -- seemed to take a toll on him for much of the season. Nevertheless, for extended stretches we saw glimpses of the dominant hitter who had anchored the middle of the lineup for many years. Reports indicate that Morneau is now as healthy as he's been since suffering that fateful concussion. For the first time in several years, he's been able to go about his normal offseason routine, and he has already committed to playing for Team Canada in March's World Baseball Classic. Considering that he's entering a contract year, his willingness to take that extra step says a lot about how confident he's feeling in the state of his body. He's past 30, but Morneau is still in the latter stage of his physical prime and if he can truly put the nagging head and wrist problems behind him, it's not difficult to envision a return to form that sees him batting .300 with elite home run and RBI totals. Why He'll Be Worse We've heard these refrains about Morneau's health before, pretty much ever since his initial concussion. Doctors, coaches and Morneau himself have always chosen to take an optimistic approach, only to inevitably hit bumps in the road. By spring training of last year, it was clear that these realities were bearing down on the first baseman, who openly spoke about the possibility of retiring if his troubling trends continued. Things always look bright and peachy at this time of year, but one bad swing that wakes up his wrist or one jarring blow to the head could send Morneau back down the same spiral. It was pretty obvious last year that his talent is still there, so it will all come down to how well his body can hold up. I don't think anyone doubts the slugger's ability to dominate offensively as long as he can stay out of the trainer's room. But not since 2008 has Morneau made it through a full season without some sort of significant malady. Is this the year he finally puts it all behind him?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1314-Come-Party-With-Twins-Daily-Next-Weekend!

Whether a pitcher’s win total should have an impact and whether it does have an impact are two different matters. I do think it’s something that a front office will look at in assessing the year a guy had. But if you prefer, you can take a look at various other areas where Pavano was strong in 2010. Point is that his contract following that campaign was – if anything – below what you’d expect and not “huge” by any stretch of the imagination. Well, we all know how common it is for a rotation to go through a year without any injuries. If you’re planning out this rotation based on the expectation that five guys are going to hold down spots all year you’re doing it wrong. I don’t know how this would not be painfully obvious to anyone who’s followed the team over the past few seasons (or any season, really).

No, I said that quite often teams have the option of doing it. I could get behind that. Problem is that Pelfrey seems somewhat unlikely to be ready to step in at the start of the season, unless his rehab goes extremely well.

Because of the way off days are arranged in the early weeks of the season, a team can usually roll with four starters and keep them on regular rest for the first couple turns through the rotation. Pretty sure this happened just last year, when Marquis was away.

I was wondering where this "report" of the Twins offering Buehrle 3/39 came from. First I've heard of it. "Huge?" He got $18 million coming off a 17-win, 220-inning season because he settled after no team wanted to give up a draft pick to sign him. Come on man. You are shredding your credibility with remarks like that.

Lengthy track record of durability. Recent success (3.86 ERA over last two years). Has succeeded in the AL. Has pitched in big games. Saunders is nothing special, but he'd justifiably be their Opening Day starter and would provide some much-needed stability to the rotation. In that sense he'd be a nice add.

Where have you heard this about Pelfrey? It seems unlikely to me, since he has incentives in his contract and while I haven't seen the specifics I doubt they start below 120 innings. He's going to want to pitch as much as he can and since it's a one-year deal, the Twins don't have much reason not to let him. I guess I probably wasn't clear enough about this, but the topic I was trying to tackle was who is going to be the fifth starter at the beginning of the year. If I was talking about guys who might step in at some point, I certainly would have included Harden and probably a few others.

I didn't include Harden's name on the list because I consider him an extreme longshot to start the year in the rotation. The guy didn't throw a single inning last year. He's going to open in the minors or, at best, in the bullpen.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1307-The-Fifth-Starter

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3056[/ATTACH]In less than four weeks, a sizable contingent of pitchers will report to Ft. Myers for spring training, with eyes on claiming a spot in Minnesota's rebuilt rotation. Rarely has it been so unclear at this point in the offseason who would comprise this vital unit. We can safely assume that, barring injury, three of the five spots will be occupied by Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Kevin Correia. Beyond them, the situation becomes much murkier. I'll go ahead and surmise that as long he holds his own in exhibition play, Liam Hendriks will claim one of the slots. He got some major-league experience last year, he seemingly has little to prove in Triple-A and we've seen plenty of quotes from Twins brass this winter indicating that he'll have every chance to earn a job. If that proves true, we've still got one final spot that is very much up in the air. Since team officials have expressed that they're done making additions unless someone – as they put it – falls into their lap, it will likely be a spring competition between players already in the mix. Certainly the Twins will expect Mike Pelfrey to be in their rotation at some point, given that they paid him $4 million, but he'll be just over nine months removed from Tommy John surgery when he shows up in Florida. He'll undoubtedly be limited early on and it's hard to imagine he can do enough to prove he's ready for an MLB job at the start of April. I got the sense that the Twins would have loved to see Nick Blackburn step up and claim one of the spots, which makes sense since they'll be paying him $5.5 million, but he'll be going under the knife for yet another arm surgery on Wednesday and will be in a cast for six weeks, pushing him out of the equation. The name I keep coming back to is Kyle Gibson. He hasn't pitched in the majors and has yet to experience sustained success at Triple-A, but the Twins are very high on him and after following up a rehab stint last year by pitching in the Arizona Fall League, he should be physically prepared. But the Twins have emphasized their desire to take it slow with Gibson, leaving one to believe he might require at least a few weeks in Triple-A to prove his readiness. Once you get past these names, the crop becomes pretty inspiring with a bunch of pitchers who should clearly be in the bullpen (Brian Duensing) or in Triple-A (Cole DeVries, Sam Deduno), and a good performance in a handful of spring outings should hardly convince anyone otherwise. Quite simply, the Twins need to hope that Gibson or Pelfrey (or both) provides overwhelming evidence that he should be there. Based on early scheduling, the team could choose to go with four starters for the first couple weeks of the season, which might increase their odds. Who do you feel should be the frontrunner for that fifth spot?

Well said. Among the players the Twins are counting on to fill spots in their rotation, there are two guys coming off elbow scopes, one guy 9 months removed from TJ and one who got booted from an NL rotation on merit last year. Having Gibson and Hendriks prove they belong in Triple-A would be a good problem to have. Because if they're in the majors and show they don't belong, there ain't much to fall back on. I've heard a lot of "Outside of Correia they've had a fine offseason" sentiment. That may be true. But the Correia signing is the crux of this whole thing. That was their marquee multi-year signing (no pun intended) and they went with one of the worst available guys on the market, a pitcher who is not noticeably better than much of what they already had.

So you're saying all that was responsible for Marquis' bad results and not the fact that he's, ya know, not very good? Is the same true for the rest of the sub par veterans the Twins have signed on the cheap in past years who have also produced horrible results? The point being made was that the Royals, like the rest of the division, were actively attempting to improve their rotation for 2013. It was not an endorsement of their approach, although I wouldn't have minded the Santana or Guthrie moves for the Twins. Where do people get the idea that non-elite pitching prospects routinely come up and become rotation staples right away? Far more frequently, these kids come up, get beat around a bit, shuttle back and forth from Triple-A and eventually settle in after two or three seasons. We've seen it with Baker and Garza, we're seeing it now with Hendriks. A couple 22-year-olds who haven't yet solved Double-A are probably a fair distance from solving the major leagues, and that's IF they stay healthy, on track and don't end up in the bullpen. As for your second paragraph, I tend to agree that the returning contingent has a decent shot at being much better than people expect. But that would make it all the more frustrating that the club didn't give them more help.

Who's to say it doesn't? Are you so firmly convinced that with a quality arm added to the top of the rotation, this team would stand absolutely no chance of competing and at least keeping things interesting into September? I'm not. In fact, I'm not totally convinced the current roster can't keep things interesting, but I'm quite confident that if they do they'll be wishing they'd added more of a legitimate asset to the rotation during the offseason. I don't see what purpose is served by opting for table scraps and giving your starting corps none of the immediate help it so desperately needed (save Worley) despite ample funds. With the pieces they have on offense and in the bullpen, the Twins have too much talent on their roster to just wave the white flag before the season starts, in my opinion. Maybe that's where I differ from a lot of you.