Nick Nelson

No wonder he's behind schedule. Here's a shot of Diamond post-surgery:

Also, I keep seeing people refer to Aaron Hicks' 2012 season in New Britain as "solid." Illustrates to me a fundamental misunderstanding of just how brilliant his season truly was. Murphy does touch on a point in the last question that I think is important: the reinforcements for failed/injured players this year should be exponentially better. Having guys like May, Meyer and Arcia potentially ready to step in midway through the year could be pretty big. There were really no players of that caliber available in the high minors the past couple years.

Even that's probably generous, but it's a lot higher than zero, which is a truth that many sulkers seem to overlook or ignore.

I think this is pretty commonly known. I'd be quite shocked if the Twins re-signed Morneau unless Parmelee totally implodes. Even then, spending big on a 32-year-old injury-prone first baseman doesn't really fit with a rebuild/youth movement. I strongly doubt Morneau will be looking at a contract anywhere close to $80 million though.

I feel pretty confident that if the Twins lose another 96 games, or fall into another huge early hole, Gardy is gone. The front office might not expect a postseason run but they expect improvement, as well they should. I'm not saying that's all on Gardenhire's shoulders but he's next in line for scapegoating after the rest of his staff was gouged this year.

Why do I feel like Seth would have more patience with Brignac if he was a Twins prospect? Guy's still only 27. By my recollection (and his own admission, I think), both were problems.

According to La Velle, Diamond felt soreness late in the year but thought it was normal. When it was still bothering him during offseason throwing routines, they decided to do the surgery. Still, kind of weird. Don't all these guys have year-end physicals where this type of stuff is supposed to be caught?

I remember at one point during the Winter Meetings, after the Span trade and before the Revere trade, Gardy came out of a meeting with execs and grumbled to reporters about how they were "trading his whole damn team away." That naturally led some folks to wonder whether another player-for-prospect trade was coming (in fact, I think Parker predicted the Revere trade shortly after that quote). Seemed clear Gardenhire wasn't happy about it. And why would he be? Trading established players for prospects doesn't exactly help a lame duck manager.

Here's the thing: your baseline is "qualified starters," which in itself denotes an IP milestone. I think it's safe to say the entire group of "qualified starters" is much, much better than non-qualified starters, because in order to qualify you need to be healthy and effective enough to get there. Last year the Twins had only one starter reach the 162-inning qualifying mark: Scott Diamond. Sounds about right. I think drjim is right. If I had to use one single statistic as a shorthand measure, innings pitched would probably be the one.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1363-Here-We-Go-Again

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3233[/ATTACH]The hits have just kept on coming for the Twins over the past two seasons, leaving those who believe in karmic balance to wonder just when a spell of good fortune would come along for a change. Apparently we're still not there yet, as La Velle E. Neal III indicated on Friday that reigning No. 1 starter Scott Diamond is "really iffy" to be ready for Opening Day after undergoing offseason elbow surgery. Diamond is a prime regression candidate, but he's the only player in the rotation mix who put together a full, successful season last year, making him the club's most reliable starting pitching commodity by default. Now he'll have a lingering injury concern on top of the question marks about his ability to sustain a breakout performance. As if Twins fans needed more bad news when it comes to the starting corps. Diamond underwent the elbow scope to remove a bone chip in December, after late-season soreness (which may or may not have contributed to his September struggles) carried into the winter months. At the time of the surgery, Darren Wolfson was informed that "Diamond will be ready for Spring Training 2013." It would seem that the lefty has fallen behind schedule if he's now being deemed "iffy" to be at full tilt in seven weeks. And as much as I'd like to believe that this revised timetable is based on some minor setback or a conservative overall approach, the last time we saw a player wait until December to undergo a purportedly minor offseason surgery was Joe Mauer two years ago. Like with Diamond, the club began to express some reservations about Mauer's status in the early stages of spring training, and we all know how the rest of that story played out. The thought of reliving anything similar with a young pitcher that the Twins absolutely need to get solid production from this year is a bit nauseating. But the past does not dictate the future. This is a different situation from Mauer's, and hopefully one that will carry a vastly different outcome. We're about due for that, right?

It's a better predictor than not pitching a lot of innings. But I think you're getting at an important point that I've preached often. A pitcher is only injury-prone until he's not, and vice versa. Carl Pavano's a fine example -- he's gone back and forth about four times in his career. Pitchers with a relatively clean bill of health suffer major injuries all the time, it's the name of the game.

Good list cmath, although you might have to sub out Diamond as it sounds like he won't be ready. I'd also bet a fair sum of money that Butera is on the OD roster. Burnett I believe has one option left since he didn't use any last year. Will be interesting to see how they handle him.

I don't have a hard time believing this is true. Swarzak is my age and when I get together "at a house with some friends after hours" and alcohol is involved, sometimes the rough-housing gets a little intense. I had a buddy break his ankle while wrestling another friend in his living room a couple years ago. Still, after some of the lines we've been fed about off-the-field injuries lately (e.g. Kevin Love) I'm always a little skeptical.

Anyway... baseball!

You keep generalizing this group "people criticizing positions they disagree with" but really it seems like the only one getting into bickering matches on every thread is you, and it's because of the tone with which you choose to engage people. Fans come to a message board for an exchange of ideas; most do not come to have their thoughts labeled as "insane nonsense" or to be told they have no reading comprehension. It is possible to disagree with people without using such insulting and condescending verbiage. Your points are generally quite reasonable so I don't know why you constantly feel the need to shroud them in contention.

I heard from people close the organization that Span took the publicized trade rumors in 2011 very personally and some days wouldn't even come out to the ballpark late in the year. I was always sort of perplexed by this – doesn't Span understand the business of baseball? – but if his emotions were screwy due to the recent concussion, it would make a lot of sense.

With the amount of criticism you repeatedly dish out regarding Butera, assistant coaches, etc, I do wonder if you have a fundamental understanding of what things are actually important to making a baseball team win. In the mind of Twins' personnel, Butera has done his job and met their expectations over the last few of years. To them he has earned the job and it is not a scholarship. You can disagree and lament his crappy bat all you want, but that's how it is. Probably best to come to terms with this reality.

From La Velle on Twitter: I have a sinking feeling that Kevin Correia is going to be the Twins' Opening Day starter.

You're too jaded by the last two years if you're incredulous at the notion that more things can go right than wrong for a baseball team.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1358-TD-Top-Prospects-6-Kyle-Gibson

Age: 25 (DOB: 10/23/87) 2012 Stats GULF: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 16/4 K/BB, 0.89 WHIP A: 7.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 7/1 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP AAA: 6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, 10/1 K/BB, 1.80 WHIP ETA: 2013 [ATTACH=CONFIG]3219[/ATTACH] Turn the calendar back two years. It's spring training 2011 and the Twins are coming off a second straight division championship. Kyle Gibson is an attention magnet in camp. He's coming off a spectacular pro debut that saw him fly through three levels of the minors, knocking on the door of the majors by September. He's recently been ranked by Baseball America as the 34th-best prospect in ball – 15th among pitchers. Gibson works his way into a couple big-league exhibitions and the Twins publicly toy with the notion of bringing him north, but ultimately decide to let him gain more experience in Triple-A. There is no room in the rotation for him. Yep, it was a different time. The rest is history. Gibson goes to Rochester and pitches decently but begins struggling with elbow pain midway through the summer. In August tests reveal a partial tear of the UCL and, a month later, he undergoes Tommy John surgery. Fast forward seventeen months. The right-hander now returns to Fort Myers hoping to once again establish himself as the story of spring training. Considering his talent and the statement he made with his performance after returning to competition late last year, it would be no surprise if he does. The Good We can't glean much from the statistics compiled by Gibson last year in 13 regular-season outings split between rookie ball, Single-A and Triple-A. Twenty-eight innings is too small a sample for any conclusions, especially when many of them are pitched against teenagers getting their first taste of pro ball. But as you look over Gibson's results, you can't help noticing the strikeout-to-walk ratios. Between his rehab stint and his six starts in the Arizona Fall League, the recovering righty notched 61 whiffs with only 14 free passes in 51 1/3 innings. That's a 10.7 K/9 rate against a 2.4 BB/9 rate. Tremendous. When Gibson took the minor leagues by storm in 2010, missing bats and limiting walks were both parts of his formula. But his penchant for inducing ground balls is what set him apart. At 6'6", his ability to locate a sinking fastball and sharp slider down in the zone creates an impressive downward plane that prevents opposing hitters from lifting the ball often. If his track record holds, Gibson could put up elite grounder rates approaching 60 percent. During his appearances in the fall league, his fastball was clocked between 93-95 mph, indicating that his velocity has returned (and then some, maybe). The nice thing about Gibson is that he's got a relatively high floor. He might not have truly dominant stuff, which is why you'll rarely see him labeled as a potential ace, but his skill set damn near guarantees at least some measure of major-league success. As long as he can stay healthy – and you'd hope the early reconstructive surgery will put him on that path – he seems like as safe a bet as there is to become a steady constant in the Twins' rotation for the next several years. The Bad Twins fans know as well as anyone that major elbow surgery can have lasting deleterious effects on a young pitcher. Francisco Liriano was never quite the same again after undergoing Tommy John surgery as a 22-year-old, and he's hardly the only example. By going under the knife and essentially losing a full year just as he was on the cusp of the majors, Gibson missed out on crucial development time. Now, he's a 25-year-old with no major-league experience who has logged only 123 innings over the past two seasons combined. And while it's easy to find positives in Gibson's peripherals, he simply hasn't achieved sustained results yet above Double-A. In 23 total starts for Rochester, he has registered a 4.67 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. While his performance last season must be viewed as a success overall, one can't ignore that he was knocked around a bit in his two starts at Triple-A, and then struggled after a hot start in Arizona. Gibson hurled 10 innings of one-run ball in his first two AFL starts, but then yielded 13 runs over 13 1/3 innings (8.77 ERA) in his final four, posting an uncharacteristically ugly 12-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Said Gibson of his late skid: "I feel like if I had better command I would really feel good about my Fall League experience, but since I lost my command at the end that was a little frustrating." Rust from a year off? Fatigue catching up? Simply a rough patch? Or are there more troubles on the horizon for Gibson as he learns to pitch with a new ligament while adjusting to competition at the highest level, which he – unlike most 25-year-old top prospects – hasn't had the opportunity to face at all? The Bottom Line By all appearances, Gibson is physically back to where he was before surgery, at which point he was arguably the Twins' best prospect. That he finds himself outside the Top 5 this year is a credit to the advancement of the system since he went down, but also a caution that the return from Tommy John surgery isn't always – or even often – smooth.