Nick Nelson

Basically I just wanted to take a little bit of a leap since most of my picks were on the safe side. I think Perez will impress people and force his way into the picture. And yes, I do think Gardy will want an extra lefty, especially since Perkins is going to be a match-up guy. An interesting question and a very plausible scenario.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1391-2013-Spring-Training-Preview

Every year around this time the talk is about how hope springs eternal; how the slate is wiped clean and every team is 0-0; how every club is tied for first place. For these 2013 Twins, optimism is noticeably subdued. For most people, a realistic form of “hope” involves approaching a .500 record and avoiding the cellar for a third straight year. The Twins have more question marks dotting their roster than perhaps any other team in the American League. The odds are against them this season. Literally. Vegas set the over/under for Minnesota at 64.5 wins. Ouch. There's too much talent on the roster to call this team hopeless, but in order to be true contenders in the AL Central, the Twins will need several core players to put forth optimal seasons. They’ll need prospects to emerge and make an impact. They’ll need multiple injury flyers to pan out. Likely? Not especially. There's not much margin for error. But this is spring, so we can hope. Grapefruit League results and reports from Ft. Myers will give fans a window to the early progress of some players who could prove pivotal to this year's effort. Here are some of the key storylines worth following over the next six weeks leading up to Opening Day: 1) Center field Fittingly it will be the center of attention in the coming month, as three contenders vie for the billing as starting center fielder and, in all likelihood, leadoff man. These are big cleats to fill. Nearly each man who has spent significant time roaming center field in Minnesota over the past decade – be it Torii Hunter, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span or Ben Revere – has gained notoriety with highlight reel catches and a dynamic offensive game. It seems clear that ultimately the next in that line will be Aaron Hicks, who has all the skills necessary to generate excitement in the same way as those listed above. The only question is whether he’s ready, with no experience above Double-A. As such, he’ll be under a microscope in camp. He’s likely the leading candidate right now, but if he falters the door will be wide open for Darin Mastroianni or Joe Benson. It will be interesting to see how Hicks responds to this pressure in what could be a defining point in his young career. 2) Who rounds out the rotation? The new-comers are all but locked in. Kevin Correia and Vance Worley are sure bets to claim spots, and all reports indicate that Mike Pelfrey will surprisingly be at full tilt by the start of April. That leaves two rotation slots up for grabs, with organizational incumbents largely comprising the candidates. Scott Diamond would have probably been Opening Day starter if recovery from elbow surgery hadn’t pushed back his timeline, leaving his status for the start of the season in doubt. Kyle Gibson and Liam Hendriks, the Twins’ best MLB-ready pitching prospects, are the leading contenders for the final two spots if Diamond can’t go, but Hendriks’ struggles last year and Gibson’s surgically repaired arm could come into play. Beyond these three, there are a number of fringe contenders – such as Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Rich Harden, Sam Deduno and Cole DeVries – that cannot be discounted. 3) Keystone questions We find four players in the middle infielder mix: Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Jamey Carroll and Eduardo Escobar. It’s not a particularly intimidating assembly but the Twins seem comfortable with what they’ve got. At this point it appears that Ron Gardenhire favors Dozier and Florimon as starters, with Carroll and possibly Escobar serving in utility roles, but you’d have to assume that’s subject to change, based on the fact that neither Dozier nor Florimon has accomplished anything to earn the honor. No scholarships, right? 4) Pen pals Every year there are a few spots at the end of the bullpen up for grabs and this year is no different. Beyond Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Duensing and maybe Anthony Swarzak, this unit appears to be wide open. Last month, I ran through all the candidates to fill those remaining spots. 5) Rehab central The Twins gambled on several pitchers recovering from major injuries during the offseason. Pelfrey is the headliner, and while all signs have been positive that's almost always the case in February. Still, he remains a far safer bet than Rich Harden, whose shoulder woes have limited him to 174 innings over the past three seasons, or Rafael Perez, a formerly dominant left-handed reliever who underwent his own shoulder surgery in September and will apparently be tried as a starter. The chances of either Harden or Perez sticking in the rotation are extremely low, but both carry intriguing upside, even as potential bullpen options. The way they're throwing this spring should give us a good idea of what can realistically be expected. 6) How will the Opening Day roster shake out? This will be dictated by health, performance and circumstance over the coming weeks. Here's my mid-February guess at how the roster and batting order will shake out on April 1: LINEUP CF: Aaron Hicks C: Joe Mauer LF: Josh Willingham 1B: Justin Morneau DH: Ryan Doumit 3B: Trevor Plouffe RF: Chris Parmelee 2B: Brian Dozier SS: Pedro Florimon BENCH C: Drew Butera IF: Jamey Carroll IF: Eduardo Escobar OF: Darin Mastroianni ROTATION SP: Vance Worley SP: Kevin Correia SP: Mike Pelfrey SP: Liam Hendriks SP: Kyle Gibson BULLPEN RP: Glen Perkins RP: Jared Burton RP: Brian Duensing RP: Casey Fien RP: Alex Burnett RP: Anthony Swarzak RP: Rafael Perez [ATTACH=CONFIG]3297[/ATTACH]

These numbers all seem very plausible and reasonable to me. Nice job.

You? Never. How about - Drew Butera is an awful baseball player who's continued scholarship to the Twins 25 man roster is an embarrassment for the franchise and an insult to paying customers. Someone so terrible at his job, so woefully inept at a major portion of the game, so utterly useless at the plate Nothing extreme about anything of that. Obviously every person involved with the Minnesota Twins organization should be embarrassed and humiliated to have a bad hitter on the roster as the third catcher. You are fabricating opposing arguments and that's how it is. Nobody is saying that it's "wise" to have Butera on the roster, nobody's advocating it here except to say that he's preferrable to Herrmann who needs to be playing regularly in Triple-A. You're regurgitating the same old arguments that have been rehashed many times before, and for what purpose? The presence of a third catcher itself is obnoxious but I’ve come to terms with it. It’s just something Gardy wants with two older, injury-prone players who often fill in at other positions atop the depth chart. I’d love it if people were attacking the idea of a third catcher more (like Chief's recent post) rather than misguidedly attacking Butera constantly. The idea that there’s some meaningful difference in what you’re going to get offensively from a .500 OPS guy and a .600 OPS guy over 150 plate appearances is silly. Neither is giving you any offense, and as far as the Twins are concerned that’s fine. Perfectly fair to call that out as an issue. Lame to continually talk about how horrible Butera is at his job. He does the job just fine -- the problem is that the job exists.

Yes? I’d like to see an actual example of this supposedly irresponsible reporting. I remember being frustrated with the Twins’ stated reasoning for the Marquis signing; I don’t remember having a problem with the way those statements were presented by reporters. You can’t shoot the messenger because you don’t like what the source has to say. Again, it is not the job of a beat reporter to analyze and critique these things.

It is factually incorrect that Marquis throws strikes? So you're saying he throws nothing but balls? Amazing he's been able to carve out a major-league career like that. I know you're trying to make a point here but you're going to have to give concrete examples rather than referencing vague situations that aren't really evidence of anything.

This quote really gets to the core the issue. I haven't said it's "wise" to keep Butera. I don't really see anybody on this thread saying that (a few have said they'd prefer having him on the roster to Herrmann, which makes plenty of sense strictly from a developmental standpoint). All I'm saying is that it's not as mind-numbingly indefensible as you and some others continually make it out to be. Quit exaggerating and fabricating opposing views in order to vindicate your tirades. I don't think anyone is in disagreement with your fundamental point, just your extremeness. People say this a lot like it's a given, but I wonder if it's true. The Twins tried out a couple inferior options when Mauer was down in 2011 (remember Steve Holm and Rene Rivera? yuck) and last year I didn't really see anyone clamoring for Towles as a significant upgrade. Now we're hearing Jeff Clement mentioned -- come on, the dude isn't even a catcher. You want a player in this role who can come in during a blowout to save Mauer's knees, play good defense and keep the game moving. Catcher defense is difficult to quantify but clearly the Twins have a bunch of people on their staff who think he does enough there to provide value. I tend to disagree but I don't have to squint to hard to see what they're thinking. If Butera works well with pitchers, makes them more comfortable, controls the running game and is a good teammate, I can see why you'd take that in his role over the extra handful of hits that another incrementally better but still terrible hitter might provide. That seems like a weird requirement. You want your third-string player at the worst offensive position on the field to be a pinch-hitter candidate? How many backup catchers are used as pinch-hitters around the league?

Except that he does complement certain pitchers on the staff, or at least the Twins and those pitchers believe that. Catcher is an awfully important defensive position that interacts with several others. Not sure why you're downplaying that with some convoluted point about range. I'm fine with discussion of Butera. I'm just tired of seeing him repeatedly associated with the scholarships quote. It doesn't apply. Like it or not, the Twins believe he's earned the chance to be on the roster by doing what is expected of him.

Yes. A reporter's job is to objectively relay facts and quotes. The really good ones will maybe take an extra step to provide context or balancing viewpoints, but there are only so many really good ones out there. A columnist's job is to editorialize. As for the latter part of your post... well, that's why sites like this exist

Well, their job is to report what's happening and what people are saying, which they appear to have done. People can (and should) scrutinize the content of quotes but I think it's pretty harsh to imply that the reporters have something wrong by relaying them to their readers.

Wrong. If he stopped playing good defense and working well with pitchers, he wouldn't have a job. Your problem is that you equate "how he plays" strictly with offensive production, and clearly the Twins don't see it that way. They're looking for different things out of a third catcher. You can disagree with their evaluation in that sense but it doesn't mean he has a "scholarship." Plenty of teams have a bad hitter occupying the last spot on their bench. Plenty of teams have managed to succeed despite this relatively minor hindrance. Hell, the Twins won 94 games and the division in 2010 with Butera soaking up 150 plate appearances. Theoretically this is true but quite honestly I can't remember one instance last year where I said, "Man, if the Twins had a different crappy, end-of-the-bench player available instead of Butera they'd be way better off!" The decision to carry 13 pitchers bears as much responsibility for the Twins' bench inflexibility as the decision to carry Butera. I haven't even heard anyone suggest a credible replacement for Butera on the roster. Brandon Inge? Come on. Chris Herrmann? The same guy who hasn't played above Double-A in the minors and hasn't hit especially well there? Quite honestly this has to come to seem like complaining for the sake of complaining. I'm not really trying to defend Butera because I think he's pretty lousy and would prefer if he weren't on the roster, but it simply doesn't matter enough to justify the constant whining and the attempts to equate it to the organization's high-level problems.

When the Twins signed Pelfrey I said I liked him on a one-year contract coming off TJ better than Baker, because his arm has shown much more strength and resilience over the course of his career. The fact that Pelf's timetable is apparently well ahead of Baker's – particularly considering he had the surgery a month later – would jibe with that. It's possible the Twins are being way too optimistic about Pelfrey but I've heard nothing to make me think their optimism is unfounded. As for Baker, if I were the Cubs I'd probably be taking it slow too. Guy's been fragile.

The scholarships quote is not applicable in this situation. In the mind of Twins coaches, he is a good fit for the third catcher role. He plays excellent defense, he has a good rapport with the pitchers and nothing is hurt by his sporadic playing time. The problem with using anybody with any kind of upside in that role is that he'll have a hard time ever reaching that upside while getting a handful of at-bats per week. Any player with legitimate ability might object to the unglamorous nature of the role but Butera knows it's a miracle he has a major-league job so he keeps happily plugging away and working his ass off. Personally I wouldn't give a roster spot to a guy with as little offensive ability as Butera and I probably wouldn't even carry a third catcher (though with Mauer and Doumit leading the depth chart I can see the wisdom). But it's not the most indefensible thing I've ever seen. I'm really tired of seeing it constantly regurgitated as some proof positive that everyone running the Twins is an idiot. At the end of the day Butera has very little impact on the success of this team one way or another.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1380-Twins-Daily-Top-10-Prospects-Recap

Over the past two weeks, we've gradually laid out our selections for the Twins organization's top ten prospects. Each day, we took an in-depth look at a different rising star within the system, outlining their strengths and weaknesses while spelling out what each must do to succeed in the majors. Here's how our list came together: 10. Max Kepler, OF 9. Trevor May, RHP 8. J.O. Berrios, RHP 7. Eddie Rosario, 2B 6. Kyle Gibson, RHP 5. Alex Meyer, RHP 4. Oswaldo Arcia, OF 3. Aaron Hicks, OF 2. Byron Buxton, OF 1. Miguel Sano, 3B It's a truly impressive group, and the Twins deserve immense credit for bringing all this talent together. It says something about the quality of their system that Trevor May, who was ranked by Baseball America a year ago as the No. 1 prospect in the Phillies organization, is all the way down at No. 9 despite a non-disastrous 2012. He and pretty much anyone else on this list would've had a shot at the top ranking if this were 4-5 years ago, when the farm was going through a bit of a drought. Those lean years took their toll and amplified the big-league club's challenges, with almost nothing in the way of legitimate MLB-ready talent available during the past two seasons. But this current group, which was named recently by ESPN.com's prospect wonk Keith Law as the second-best in baseball, offers promise that the Twins could be approaching another run like the one beginning in 2001, where the system churns out impact players in consistent waves. At a glance, there is balance between pitchers and position players on this top ten list (four vs. six) but there's clearly more security on the position player side. Many of these guys are human toolboxes who have demonstrated enough skill that it would be surprising if they fizzled out completely. There's certainly a noticeable concentration of outfielders – in fact it's possible all six could end up there – but as long as they stay on track that's not the worst problem to have because the Twins can flip them to fill other areas of need. And of course, Miguel Sano is universally viewed as the organization's best prospect since Joe Mauer was in the minors. On the pitching side, the risk/upside dynamic is in play to a much greater extent. Alex Meyer stakes a claim as the organization's best prospective arm after being acquired in the Denard Span trade, but he hasn't pitched above Single-A and his mechanics raise questions about durability. Kyle Gibson is coming off Tommy John, J.O. Berrios is 18 and May has been an erratic mess at times. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3277[/ATTACH] The Twins are counting on this group to fill at least a couple rotation spots long-term, but a few bad outcomes (Meyer ends up in the bullpen, Berrios hits a wall against tougher competition, May never cuts down his walk rate, etc.) could have them perpetually scrambling to supplement their burgeoning offense with a competent rotation. The Twins have never paid for high-end free agent pitching and, as Terry Ryan has pointed out many times, it's extremely tough to pry good arms from other organizations unless they're in the low minors. Fortunately, the upside with the pitchers on the list is strong enough to outweigh concerns at this point. These are all very legitimate prospects, and if just a couple of them reach their potential the Twins will have found anchors who can front the rotation at a low cost for years. The 2013 season is likely to be a tough one on the field for the major-league club, as the organization has clearly set its sights on the future and didn't show much interest in building a stable bridge to get there. But the great thing about baseball is that fans will have plenty of opportunities to follow these prospects and watch the future come into focus. Minor-league box scores readily available, Cedar Rapids (where Buxton, Berrios and Kepler are likely to play) is just a four-hour drive from the Twin Cities, and of course we'll be regularly updating you on on all of these players and more throughout the season here at Twins Daily. ~~ By the way, you can read about these 10 – and about 150 others – in Seth's 2013 Prospect Handbook. It's an indispensable resource for anyone who digs this kind of stuff.

That's a good nugget. To be honest, I was kind of low on Benson even when he was successfully ascending the minors because of his poor plate discipline, which was really exposed during that month in the majors. Speed has been one of his main assets and now he has to come back from a tough knee surgery. I'd love it if he surprised me but I've pretty much counted him out.

Over??? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!

I'm definitely thinking this is going to be the best route to take. If Morneau accepts the qualifying offer (and he damn well might, even after a good season, considering his old teammate Lohse's experiences this winter) they'd get him on a one-year, ~$13 million deal for 2014. Maybe a bit of an overpay, but they'll be able to afford it and the one-year commitment is gravy with his age, injury history and potential minor-league replacements coming along.

I agree that this thread is plain stupid and classless, which was the point of the joke. I didn't think there was a person in the world not familiar with Kanye's George Bush quote. Pretty common pop culture reference. Sorry.

Dumb how? The Indians had something like $30 million come off the books this year with Hafner, Sizemore, Lowe and others departing. There's new TV revenue pouring in next year and beyond to help out with the back ends of the deals. The alternative to "overpaying" (or, more accurately, paying market rate) for these guys is to pocket the money and trot out a terrible outfield. As it stands, the Tribe is a credible contender in the division even though they're retooling to some extent. Swisher and Bourn are pretty good players.