Nick Nelson

It does not necessarily affect the cost of an extension. It affects the timing of an extension. The Twins are going to have to pay if they want to keep these guys around long-term one way or another, and they’ve really never had a problem doing that in the past. They certainly shouldn’t have a problem doing so in their current financial state. This entire argument has been predicated on the assumption that the prospect in question (Gibson, Hicks, etc.) is deemed by coaches to be ready for the majors. That qualification has been laid out in almost every comment I've made. You’re taking whacks at a straw man.

A lot of you folks are going to be very disappointed when Rosario struggles a bit in Ft. Myers. The FSL is a tough league for a young and inexperienced kid whose plate discipline isn’t great. I’d be surprised if he sees New Britain this year. If not, it certainly wouldn’t mean that he’s off track or failing as a prospect. I’m just shocked at the expectations being put forth. He’s played less than 100 games above rookie ball! I know this is kind of a “just-for-fun” thread but someone needs to inject a bit of reality into these starry-eyed predictions of greatness.

It's a couple years old, but this article does a pretty good job of explaining that there is virtually no correlation.

Nice to hear. Good for them.

He'll be sub par on defense. Not much doubt about that. The real question is: how much does a bad defensive RF hurt you? I say not too much, especially with all the groundballers on staff this year.

The same MLB.com that didn't have him ranked among their top 100 prospects? He's a nice player and I'm not trying to bash him, but under no definition of the word "elite" would Rosario qualify. He's not on the top 100 lists for MLB.com nor BA. Most don't have him ranked as even a top 5 prospect in the Twins system. Being rated as the sixth-best in the minors at a thin position isn't quite the feat you're making it out to be. He's a very intriguing prospect with plenty of promise, but he's not the kind of guy who gains consideration -- in any organization -- for an MLB job at age 21 with under 250 games of pro experience.

I think you are wildly overrating Rosario's offensive game. He has a chance to be an impact player in the majors someday but he's not particularly close to being an elite prospect. In no organization would he be near the majors right now.

So in order for all this to truly matter, the player in question would have to: 1) Be good enough that he remains in the majors steadily for the next six years and never gets sent down to the minors to work on anything. 2) Be unwilling to sign a reasonable extension that carries him beyond his sixth year of control. Pretty rare that we've ever seen this happen with a Twins prospect. I just don't see it as a major issue. It's a minor consideration that shouldn't stand in the way of bringing a guy north if he is deemed ready. Particularly because, as I said earlier, I'd like the Twins to have a reputation as an organization that rewards its players based on merit, not based on the timeline that saves them the most money.

He'll get a full season of service time if he starts with the Twins and they shut him down midway through the year. Unless they were to follow the plan of demoting him and then DLing him, which would be shady and possibly against the rules. Only way he gets half a season's service time this year is if he spends the first three months in the minors, or gets demoted somewhere along the way based on performance.

Actually, if he believes it, it'd make their lack of moves all the more inexplicable, IMO. If they think they'll be playing meaningful games late in the season, why not spend more the available money and get better players, so as to improve their chances of winning those games and being in a better position to begin with?

I'm pointing out that it's a slippery slope and a bad path to head down. So this should simply be implemented as a general rule? All prospects have to sit in the minors for three weeks at the start of a season, regardless of how ready they appear? It’s an anti-player move designed specifically to delay the guy’s payday, much like Brock’s hypothetical about sending Gibson to the minors before DLing him for the rest of the year. And it reflects poorly on the organization, IMO. I think people need to take a step back and look at this situation from the other side. It’s interesting to me that many of the same people who lament Minnesota’s standing as an (apparently) unappealing destination for free agents are also advocating this approach. These kinds of moves will help the Twins build a bad reputation among circles of players and agents, as an org more interested in protecting their own pocketbooks than helping their guys reach success and financial security more quickly. In this era of Target Field and mid-market payroll flexibility, shouldn’t we be past that? (BTW, are we sure we're not mixing up team control and Super 2 arbitration status? I don't know if I believe that a team gets a full extra year of service by delaying a guy's call-up 25 days. To my knowledge, under no circumstances is a player under team control for more than 6 years.)

Can't wait to see Revere start ripping jackjobs left and right now that he no longer has Twins coaches telling him to hit it the other way.

Right. He can pitch 2/3 of a season regardless of where he's at. Why waste a chunk of that time in Triple-A if you feel he's ready to pitch in the majors? You want him to get as much exposure against top-level hitters as you can, so you have a better idea of what you've got going forward. Santana actually spent his entire first season with the Twins on the MLB roster as he was a Rule 5 pick. I doubt the decisions with the other guys had much, if anything, to do with their service clocks. If you can find me an example of a minor-leaguer who was widely deemed MLB-ready at the start of a season, then left in Triple-A for three weeks and called up, I might lend credence to historical precedent. You could maybe argue they did it with Garza but even that's iffy. If there's anything that can be criticized in this situation, it is the timing and length of the extensions the Twins gave Mauer. Again, it had nothing to do with when they chose to bring him up. Besides which, you're basing this example on a guy who put up career numbers one season before his walk year. That's very bad timing for the team, but can occur and become a problem regardless of when you promote someone.

Right. The flip side is that the hard grounders which sometimes turn into DPs also sometimes turn into singles through the hole and doubles down the line. Pop-ups rarely turn into anything but outs. No question you prefer a guy with this hitting profile.

No.

It is what it is. This is a bridge year. No one's hiding that anymore.

Yeah, sucks that they got nothing back for him in trade since he only had one year left on his deal. Here are some players I can think of that the Twins have lost in recent years because they became free agents after their arbitration ran out: Francisco Liriano, Alexi Casilla… ? This team control thing is a manufactured issue with little real-life relevance. If the player turns out to be good, by the time he’s approaching free agency he will either be extended or traded for good value. This happens every time. Fretting about what age he’s going to be when he’s hypothetically eligible for FA is pointless. People can continue making this argument indefinitely. By the same reasoning, why call Gibson up in three weeks when you could wait three months and extend your team control for half a year? Why not wait the whole season and extend by it by a full year? At some point, they just need to get these kids in the majors and learning the ropes. Delaying the process for distant financial gains would be a frustrating sign that the Twins aren’t especially urgent about this rebuild. I don’t see how this is relevant to the point at hand. Mauer had already signed one contract extension before this one that bought out his first year of free agency. Had that deal not been inked '09 would have been the last year on his contract and he'd have probably been re-signed before that season took place.

I'm no expert but I, for one, think there's a perfectly legit chance he could be right. A record approaching .500 is not completely unrealistic. And I personally appreciate the fact that he's trying to be realistic. Notice that he's not talking about winning the division or contending for a championship.

Huge thanks to glunn for his respectful efforts to change the tone, and thanks to everyone for the increased civility lately. It's making this place a lot more pleasant.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1411-A-Dose-of-Reality-for-Pelfrey

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3356[/ATTACH]Spring is an exciting time for baseball. Players are happy to be back in camp doing what they love. Coaches are pumped to reacquaint with returning team members and welcome new ones. Fans are giddy at the sound of gloves popping under the sun. It’s easy for reporters on hand to get caught up in the flurry of good vibes. This year’s prime example is Mike Pelfrey, who wowed everyone present during his early workouts, less than 10 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Pelfrey spoke about how great he felt, assured people he’d be fully ready for the start of the season and drew rave reviews from coaches and trainers as he fired off the mound in bullpen sessions with his imposing 6’5” frame. The media reports glowed, and it's not hard to see why. Yesterday, after he made his first Grapefruit League appearance, the tone changed just a little bit. Pelfrey got knocked around, coughing up three runs on five hits over 1 2/3 innings while clocking in at 87-89 MPH with his fastball. That’s a noticeable drop-off from his pre-surgery velocity, which averaged close to 93. Now, to be clear, I’m not saying this is a setback for Pelfrey. Results in a pitcher’s first spring training start are meaningless, and he’s likely to add ticks to his fastball in the coming weeks. But it serves as yet another reminder that he’s attempting a historically speedy return from one of the game’s most drastic arm surgeries, and despite all the optimism surrounding him, a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted. For his part, Pelfrey downplayed the decreased fastball speed, pointing out that last year in spring training he was at 82-84 MPH in his first start and was touching the upper 90s by the end of camp. Then again, many will recall seeing the exact same type of quotes from Joe Nathan when he showed up at spring training throwing in the mid 80s following his own Tommy John procedure. In that case, Nathan did indeed gradually ramp up his velocity, and he eventually returned close to his previous level of effectiveness, though it took him until a couple months into the season. And Nathan was a month further along in his rehab compared to Pelfrey. As everyone knows, it’s not all about pitch speed. It’s about endurance. It’s about command. It’s about movement – especially for a guy like Pelf who generally relies on inducing weak contact rather than missing bats. These are all traditional obstacles for pitchers with reconstructed elbows, and ones that Pelfrey is looking to overcome in an extraordinarily short period of time. I'm not saying he can't do it. But shaky outings like Tuesday's should be the expectation. If Pelfrey is actually able to pitch in the Twins' opening series, as seems to be the plan, it would be (as far as I could tell after researching a little) the shortest length of time between a pitcher's Tommy John surgery and his next MLB start. Ever. To do that and also be effective right away? It wouldn't quite be an Adrian Peterson caliber feat, but it would be perhaps the greatest success story for a TJ rehabber since the surgery's inception. To me, it's extremely impressive that Pelfrey is already out on the mound. The fact that he's even hitting the high 80s in game action right now is dazzling, all things considered. But no one should be surprised that he struggled in his exhibition debut, nor if he continues to do so as he attempts an unprecedented comeback.

Luke Hughes. The Twins brought Rosario to camp so he could get a little work in before the WBC, and so the coaching staff could get a look at him before he leaves for a couple weeks. Don't think it's anything more than that.

I think people need to move past the idea that Gibson is going to start the season pitching in the bullpen, or being limited to four-inning starts, so that he'll be available in September. He'll either open the campaign in the Minnesota rotation or the Rochester rotation and while they might be a little more apt to pull him after 90 pitches instead of 100 his usage will be fairly normal. The Twins want to build up his strength and get him back into a normal starting routine -- that is their goal with him this year. Frankly, I'm not sure why people are so obsessed with having him available at the end of the year anyway. They're not going to be playing in October, and regular season results matter as just much in April as September. Considering the club's stated resolve to get off to a better start this season, I'm guessing the Twins would prefer to have him helping them early anyway. I'm sure they're hoping that other options will emerge (Meyer? May?) to replace him late in the year.