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Everything posted by Nick Nelson
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Trade Target Team Profile: San Francisco Giants
Nick Nelson commented on Nick Nelson's blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
[ATTACH=CONFIG]1649[/ATTACH]The Big Picture San Francisco leads Los Angeles by a game and a half for the NL West lead. As is typically the case, the G-Men have excelled on the mound, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA, while struggling on offense, ranking 11th in runs per game. The Dodgers have proven pesky and the Diamondbacks – currently six games back – are always a threat to make a late-season run (last year they went 45-25 after the break), so one would have to think the Giants are very interested in making a move. Why They'll Trade With the Twins Although they're very strong at the top of the rotation with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants may look to boost the bottom half, where an untrustworthy Barry Zito and a suddenly hittable Tim Lincecum lurk. Would Brian Sabean consider bringing back the pitcher he traded away as a prospect almost a decade ago? Francisco Liriano would certainly provide an edge, but it's hard to see the team replacing Zito, who has a 3.75 ERA, or Lincecum, who is Lincecum. The Twins player that really might interest the Giants is Josh Willingham. He's said to be available, though only at an exorbitant price. Ken Rosenthal, who offered up the previous tidbit about Willingham, has also noted that the Giants have a clear need for a right-handed hitting outfielder. Would they part with a top prospect or two knowing that they'd have Willingham for two more years at a good price? I don't believe the Twins are very interested in dealing the Hammer, but I'd bet money that if they end up moving him it's because Sabean knocked them off their heels with an offer. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Two words: A.J. Pierzynski. The last time Sabean shipped prospects to Terry Ryan for an established player, it bit him. Hard. Conclusion The Giants don't seem like a viable destination for the Twins' top trade chip in Liriano, but they look like a prime landing spot for Willingham. That's true of Denard Span also, though to a lesser extent since they have a couple similar players in Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco. Read on to find a few players the Twins might ask about if the Giants come calling for an outfielder. ~~~ POTENTIAL TRADE CANDIDATES Nate Schierholtz - OF The 28-year-old outfielder recently suggested that he'd welcome a trade, as he feels underutilized. With a career .723 OPS, he's nothing special, but he's competent enough and could serve as a placeholder if the Twins deal Span or Willingham. Joe Panik - SS A middle infielder with a stick. Something the Twins could use. After putting up an .868 OPS as a 20-year-old in Low-A last year, he's come back to earth a bit (.265/.347/.374) but his 43/47 K/BB ratio is exciting. Kyle Crick - RHP Ryan has put a clear emphasis on young pitchers with upside, and Crick fits that bill extremely well. He's a big 6'4" right-hander who throws four quality pitches, racking up lots of strikeouts and lots of walks. He's also got a 2.75 ERA in Single-A as a 19-year-old. Clayton Blackburn - RHP Because who doesn't want another Blackburn in the organization? Oh, and this one is actually really good: 2.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 99/13 K/BB in 89 innings at Single-A as a 19-year-old. Another high-ceiling teenager. -
Trade Target Team Profile: San Francisco Giants
Nick Nelson posted a blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
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The Big Picture San Francisco leads Los Angeles by a game and a half for the NL West lead. As is typically the case, the G-Men have excelled on the mound, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA, while struggling on offense, ranking 11th in runs per game. The Dodgers have proven pesky and the Diamondbacks – currently six games back – are always a threat to make a late-season run (last year they went 45-25 after the break), so one would have to think the Giants are very interested in making a move. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They'll Trade With the Twins Although they're very strong at the top of the rotation with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants may look to boost the bottom half, where an untrustworthy Barry Zito and a suddenly hittable Tim Lincecum lurk. Would Brian Sabean consider bringing back the pitcher he traded away as a prospect almost a decade ago? Francisco Liriano would certainly provide an edge, but it's hard to see the team replacing Zito, who has a 3.75 ERA, or Lincecum, who is Lincecum. The Twins player that really might interest the Giants is Josh Willingham. He's said to be available, though only at an exorbitant price. Ken Rosenthal, who offered up the previous tidbit about Willingham, has also noted that the Giants have a clear need for a right-handed hitting outfielder. Would they part with a top prospect or two knowing that they'd have Willingham for two more years at a good price? I don't believe the Twins are very interested in dealing the Hammer, but I'd bet money that if they end up moving him it's because Sabean knocked them off their heels with an offer. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Two words: A.J. Pierzynski. The last time Sabean shipped prospects to Terry Ryan for an established player, it bit him. Hard. Conclusion The Giants don't seem like a viable destination for the Twins' top trade chip in Liriano, but they look like a prime landing spot for Willingham. That's true of Denard Span also, though to a lesser extent since they have a couple similar players in Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco. Read on to find a few players the Twins might ask about if the Giants come calling for an outfielder. ~~~ POTENTIAL TRADE CANDIDATES Nate Schierholtz - OF The 28-year-old outfielder recently suggested that he'd welcome a trade, as he feels underutilized. With a career .723 OPS, he's nothing special, but he's competent enough and could serve as a placeholder if the Twins deal Span or Willingham. Joe Panik - SS A middle infielder with a stick. Something the Twins could use. After putting up an .868 OPS as a 20-year-old in Low-A last year, he's come back to earth a bit (.265/.347/.374) but his 43/47 K/BB ratio is exciting. Kyle Crick - RHP Ryan has put a clear emphasis on young pitchers with upside, and Crick fits that bill extremely well. He's a big 6'4" right-hander who throws four quality pitches, racking up lots of strikeouts and lots of walks. He's also got a 2.75 ERA in Single-A as a 19-year-old. Clayton Blackburn - RHP Because who doesn't want another Blackburn in the organization? Oh, and this one is actually really good: 2.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 99/13 K/BB in 89 innings at Single-A as a 19-year-old. Another high-ceiling teenager.
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Perkins has been excellent this year and last, which is basically the same time frame he's become involved in social media. When he starts becoming a liability and bloggers are still singing his praises, you'll have a point. Right now, you have none. For the record, John had no problem saying (very falsely) at one point that Perkins was "not good this year."
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Article: Frankie's Final Start?
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think people are overreacting a little bit to one bad start. GMs don't make any decisions on the basis of one outing. -
I'm sorry, is someone forcing you to post here?
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Article: Frankie's Final Start?
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Really? Wow. Not me. -
What the Twins need for RF next year is a stopgap who can step aside when a guy like Arcia, Benson or Hicks proves ready for a shot. Hunter doesn't really fit the bill because he'll still see himself as a full-time guy (deserving of a full-time salary).
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Article: The Stress of the Trade Deadline
Nick Nelson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For what it's worth, I heard from people I trust that Span did not react well at all to his name being floated in rumors around this time last year. -
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?826-Frankie-s-Final-Start
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[ATTACH=CONFIG]1636[/ATTACH]On Monday night, Francisco Liriano is scheduled to make his 130th start in a Twins uniform. It might also be his last. With 25 strikeouts over his last two starts and a 2.84 ERA since the start of May, Liriano is the hottest pitcher in baseball. He also might be the most appealing rental available on the trade market, with Zack Greinke's market cooling and Cole Hamels perhaps closing in on an extension with the Phillies. Just over a week remains until the deadline, increasing the urgency for pitching-hungry contenders who could begin making hard pushes for the Minnesota left-hander, especially if he turns in another strong outing against the White Sox. This is certainly not the kind of leverage Terry Ryan expected to have when Liriano sat with an 11.02 ERA after one month's play. As frustrating as his April was, Twins fans should be very thankful that he was able to pull things together and rattle off three excellent months, boosting his trade value with each passing start. At this point, with the bidding war that ought to take place, I'll be disappointed if the Twins don't come away with at least one impact prospect in a deal. Pay close attention to Liriano when he takes the hill against Gavin Floyd. It might be your last chance, because you can bet a dozen other teams will be doing the same.
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On Monday night, Francisco Liriano is scheduled to make his 130th start in a Twins uniform. It might also be his last. With 25 strikeouts over his last two starts and a 2.84 ERA since the start of May, Liriano is the hottest pitcher in baseball. He also might be the most appealing rental available on the trade market, with Zack Greinke's market cooling and Cole Hamels perhaps closing in on an extension with the Phillies. Just over a week remains until the deadline, increasing the urgency for pitching-hungry contenders who could begin making hard pushes for the Minnesota left-hander, especially if he turns in another strong outing against the White Sox. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This is certainly not the kind of leverage Terry Ryan expected to have when Liriano sat with an 11.02 ERA after one month's play. As frustrating as his April was, Twins fans should be very thankful that he was able to pull things together and rattle off three excellent months, boosting his trade value with each passing start. At this point, with the bidding war that ought to take place, I'll be disappointed if the Twins don't come away with at least one impact prospect in a deal. Pay close attention to Liriano when he takes the hill against Gavin Floyd. It might be your last chance, because you can bet a dozen other teams will be doing the same.
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Why not move him for a solid prospect now and sign him during the offseason?
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I can't believe someone actually suggested bringing Pavano back.
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Burton, Perkins, and minor league prospects
Nick Nelson replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
None of those guys have much trade value at all. -
The Big Picture When the Angels skidded to an 18-25 start, many in Anaheim were hitting the panic button. After the most aggressive offseason of any club in baseball, the offense was flatlining – thanks in large part to the remarkable struggles of LA's marquee acquisition: Albert Pujols. Akin to the 2006 Twins, who reversed course after a 25-33 start to win 96 games, the Angels have gone on a midseason tear, with rookie and MVP frontrunner Mike Trout leading the way. They are 5.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West, but lead the race for the top wild-card spot. At this point, they've got to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making the postseason. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Of course, when you splurge for $316 million over the winter, simply making the postseason isn't enough. The Angels have championship aspirations, and with the Rangers and Yankees both looking especially strong, they'll need any edge they can get. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Los Angeles will likely be looking to upgrade the lineup, where there are a few clear weak spots. While Trout and Torii Hunter are holding down two outfield positions, the the final corner has been hurting, with Peter Bourjos hitting .237 and Vernon Wells looking unappealing as a full-time option when he returns from the disabled list. Adding a guy like, say, Denard Span or Josh Willingham would certainly round out that group nicely while pushing the lineup closer to the level of a Texas or New York. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Pitching is a major strength for the Halos, so unless they're looking for a fourth weapon in the rotation to complement Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Dan Haren, they seem unlikely to be major players for Francisco Liriano. Aside from left field, the biggest weakness in the Angel lineup is catcher, where Bobby Wilson has been getting regular tread with a .483 OPS. Ryan Doumit certainly looks like a potential fit, but the Twins seem unlikely to move him after handing him a two-year extension. Summary The Angels are front line contenders and are certainly in position to buy at the deadline, but they're red-hot right now and it's not clear their need is great enough to drop big prospects for a guy like Span or Liriano. Then again, with expectations as higher as they are, who knows where their desperation may lead. Read on to find a few prospects in LA's system that could intrigue the Twins should Jerry Dipoto come calling (sadly, I somehow doubt Trout is an option). --- Potential Trade Candidates Garrett Richards – RHP He was considered the organization's top pitching prospect entering the season, but he's scuffled in Triple-A and the majors this year. Still, his numbers in the minors up until this point cannot be ignored and he works in the mid-90s with his fastball. He's still only 24. Nick Maronde – LHP Another promising young hurler who has looked good this year, flashing strikeout stuff and good control in Single-A at age 22, though he missed a couple months due to a strained lat. John Hellweg – RHP Hellweg is a nice prospect in his own right. His stock his has dropped this year with a good-not-great performance in Double-A as a 23-year-old (3.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 84/56 K/BB in 111 IP), but that could be just what makes him him gettable. Ariel Pena – RHP Pitching on the same team as Hellweg, and posting slightly better numbers at the same age. Neither Hellweg, Maronde nor Pena are top-tier prospects, but they're all fairly similar in quality and their redundancy may make them more expendable in the eyes of Dipoto.
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Trade Target Team Profile: Los Angeles Angels
Nick Nelson commented on Nick Nelson's blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
[ATTACH=CONFIG]1582[/ATTACH]The Big Picture When the Angels skidded to an 18-25 start, many in Anaheim were hitting the panic button. After the most aggressive offseason of any club in baseball, the offense was flatlining – thanks in large part to the remarkable struggles of LA's marquee acquisition: Albert Pujols. Akin to the 2006 Twins, who reversed course after a 25-33 start to win 96 games, the Angels have gone on a midseason tear, with rookie and MVP frontrunner Mike Trout leading the way. They are 5.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West, but lead the race for the top wild-card spot. At this point, they've got to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making the postseason. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Of course, when you splurge for $316 million over the winter, simply making the postseason isn't enough. The Angels have championship aspirations, and with the Rangers and Yankees both looking especially strong, they'll need any edge they can get. Los Angeles will likely be looking to upgrade the lineup, where there are a few clear weak spots. While Trout and Torii Hunter are holding down two outfield positions, the the final corner has been hurting, with Peter Bourjos hitting .237 and Vernon Wells looking unappealing as a full-time option when he returns from the disabled list. Adding a guy like, say, Denard Span or Josh Willingham would certainly round out that group nicely while pushing the lineup closer to the level of a Texas or New York. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Pitching is a major strength for the Halos, so unless they're looking for a fourth weapon in the rotation to complement Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Dan Haren, they seem unlikely to be major players for Francisco Liriano. Aside from left field, the biggest weakness in the Angel lineup is catcher, where Bobby Wilson has been getting regular tread with a .483 OPS. Ryan Doumit certainly looks like a potential fit, but the Twins seem unlikely to move him after handing him a two-year extension. Summary The Angels are front line contenders and are certainly in position to buy at the deadline, but they're red-hot right now and it's not clear their need is great enough to drop big prospects for a guy like Span or Liriano. Then again, with expectations as higher as they are, who knows where their desperation may lead. Read on to Twins Daily to find a few prospects in LA's system that could intrigue the Twins should Jerry Dipoto come calling (sadly, I somehow doubt Trout is an option). --- Potential Trade Candidates Garrett Richards – RHP He was considered the organization's top pitching prospect entering the season, but he's scuffled in Triple-A and the majors this year. Still, his numbers in the minors up until this point cannot be ignored and he works in the mid-90s with his fastball. He's still only 24. Nick Maronde – LHP Another promising young hurler who has looked good this year, flashing strikeout stuff and good control in Single-A at age 22, though he missed a couple months due to a strained lat. John Hellweg – RHP Hellweg is a nice prospect in his own right. His stock his has dropped this year with a good-not-great performance in Double-A as a 23-year-old (3.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 84/56 K/BB in 111 IP), but that could be just what makes him him gettable. Ariel Pena – RHP Pitching on the same team as Hellweg, and posting slightly better numbers at the same age. Neither Hellweg, Maronde nor Pena are top-tier prospects, but they're all fairly similar in quality and their redundancy may make them more expendable in the eyes of Dipoto. -
Twins Announce Starting Rotation Following Break
Nick Nelson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I can live with Liriano, Diamond and Duensing as the top 3. Twins need to find better options for the other two spots, whether that's Pavano/Walters/Hendriks or whatever. Actually, what they really need is for Blackburn to get it together and have a decent finish. -
Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 3
Nick Nelson replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Agreed. The Twins may need a RF in the short-term and they seem to believe Parmelee will hit. So why not give him some run out there? I'm sure he'll be pretty awful defensively but they've lived with Delmon/Kubel/Willingham etc in the past. -
Article: Ten Second-Half Storylines
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Actually hitting .321 over 28 at-bats doesn't mean much at all. And when the solid average is attached to shoddy plate discipline (6/1 K/BB) and little power (1 XBH) it becomes less encouraging. Dozier's calling card in the minors was a solid plate approach, and until that manifests in the majors I'll remain wary of his offensive ability.

