Nick Nelson

Download attachment: TD Only.jpg The following are examples of comments we've received on blog posts over the past few days. The first came from Twins Daily member roger responding to my post earlier this week about the Zumaya injury: Is the new Twins Daily going to be another site where everyone 'bad mouths' everything Mr. Ryan and the organization does? Your site has only been around for a couple days and I for one am already tired of all the bitching! ... Last time I checked, spring training is less than a week old. Lets give management time to evaluate what they have before we all jump on the sky is falling bandwagon...please! The second came from StarTribune.com user "njc264isback" on Seth's bullpen article there today: Honestly can't read any entries from Stohs without asking myself, "I wonder how many times Seth will apply to work for the Twins?" This guy is trying so hard to get in with them, I wish they'd just hire him already so I didn't have to read his cheerleading and apologizing for them anymore. Look, I'm a huge fan of reader interaction and I value pretty much every comment received – even the ones I vehemently disagree with. But I hate comments like these ones. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] When you've got a multi-contributor site like Twins Daily, you're inherently going to get a wide array of viewpoints, perspectives and styles. Different writers take different approaches with their craft. Seth's a guy who nearly always writes with a positive slant and uses lots of exclamation points. I pride myself on being a straight-shooter who looks at things objectively despite being a lifelong fan. I like to examine matters critically and I'm not shy about voicing my disagreement when I think it's warranted (although I would absolutely challenge the notion that my writing is consistently negative; of my last three posts, one laid out a realistic blueprint for the Twins to contend and one concluded that this year's bench should be more well rounded than past iterations). Our tones are very different, but neither should be shunned. We'll tackle topics from our own – sometimes conflicting – unique angles, and so will John and Parker. That's the beauty of this site. Readers will have the opportunity to take in a multitude of different viewpoints and are encouraged to impact the conversation by sharing their own. Use Twins Daily however you like. Share your feedback. Contribute. Just please, please don't endlessly complain about the tone of certain writers being too positive or negative. That's not a path to constructive discussion. If you really can't handle reading a little well-evidenced optimism or thoughtful criticism, authors' names are very clearly displayed on the front page and it's easy to be selective about what you choose to read. Click here to view the article

* We've reached the end of January and Bronson Arroyo still hasn't found a home. In fact, according to the veteran right-hander, he still hasn't even received an official offer. As Jayson Stark notes in his column, that's rather surprising considering that Arroyo is one of only two MLB pitchers (along with Mark Buehrle) to log 199 or more innings in each of the last nine seasons. When baseball teams are committing huge sums of guaranteed money to pitchers, durability is a primary consideration, and few hurlers in the game can boast a track record that compares to Arroyo's. On top of that, he wasn't offered arbitration by the Reds so signing him would not require the forfeiture of a draft pick. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And yet, there he sits. There were reports earlier in the offseason that the Twins were gaining momentum in talks with the righty, but apparently no contract was actually offered. There has been no recent buzz connecting the two sides. I've felt pretty firmly that the Twins were done adding pitchers after they signed with Mike Pelfrey (with the exception of a possible minor-league contract for someone like Johan Santana), so even if Arroyo's price keeps dropping, I can't see him ending up here. However, it's starting to look like some club is going to end up getting a reasonable deal on this proven veteran workhorse. I never would have guessed that at the outset of the offseason. Download attachment: guerrier.jpg * Ryan and the Twins continue to take fliers on former players who -- at least based on recent history -- appear to be washed up. The latest is Matt Guerrier, who joins Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel as players to rejoin the organization in the wake of seasons that were marred by injury, poor performance or (in Bartlett's case) not actually playing. I've got no problem with the strategy. How could you? There's no risk here. The Twins are guaranteeing essentially nothing to these players -- not even a spot on the 40-man roster -- and each has shown at some point within the past few years that he can play at a high level. The Twins are already a little crowded in the bullpen, giving Guerrier a much tougher path to making the roster than Bartlett, who's trying to catch on in a shaky infield, or Kubel, who looks like the odds-on favorite to be regular DH despite his brutal 2013 campaign. Guerrier is presently rehabbing from flexor tendon surgery in his elbow last August. That's a fairly significant operation, especially for a 35-year-old, so he's not exactly a great bet to come back and make an impact. With that said, he has remained largely effective when on the mound, so if he can indeed make a full recovery, he could end up being a great depth grab. * The Twins announced on Thursday the unconditional release of Andrew Albers, officially clearing way for the left-hander to head to Korea and continue his career. The deal was held up a bit by some procedural complications, but it has been apparent for a while now that Albers was on his way out and -- as I wrote last week -- that's the right move for both him and the Twins. His departure leaves a spot open on the 40-man roster, but I wouldn't expect it to be filled very quickly. With just a couple weeks remaining until spring training, the Twins now have flexibility to make any late additions; a bench bat for the infield would seem to be the most likely. There is also a good chance they'll need space on the 40-man in order to add Kubel and/or any other non-roster invitees who emerge in spring training. Albers could have very well been the odd man out in such a scenario anyway. Click here to view the article

For three straight years, the refrain for hopeful Twins fans has been the same: Keep waiting, help is on the way. That can be difficult to accept, especially when few signs of progress are evident on the field. The Twins lost 99 games in 2011, and they've lost 96 in each season since. It wouldn't be too surprising if they lost 90-plus again this year. So why watch? Fortunately, you don't have to look far to find reasons. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Letting The Kids Play First and foremost, that help we were talking about earlier? It's arriving. Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are both slated as regulars from the get-go, and Kyle Gibson is in the rotation. Josmil Pinto should appear in the lineup several times per week. These are some of the premier talents the farm system has produced, and they will now have an opportunity to significantly impact outcomes for the major-league club right from the start. More importantly, Alex Meyer and Byron Buxton are not far behind. Download attachment: buxton319.jpg Meyer will start the year in Triple-A and Buxton -- who rocketed through two levels last year -- will get a late start in Double-A. Either player is a credible candidate for a first-half call-up, offering contingencies that have never been available to the Twins in the past. It's not often that an organization has the best position player prospect in the game and one of the best pitching prospects, both simultaneously on the verge of reaching the majors. These are the things you should embrace if you're having a hard time getting excited about the group that is set to kick off the season at 3:10 on Monday afternoon. Admittedly, that group faces some daunting question marks. Where Are The Runs? Will Jason Kubel and Josh Willingham bounce back from rough years and hit again in the middle of the order? Will Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia make the adjustments necessary to excel? Will Trevor Plouffe's power return while Brian Dozier's stays? Will Joe Mauer's production improve with a move away from catcher? And can this mishmash bench provide any punch? All these players have shown an ability to perform in the past, so in a way you can see why the Twins are pinning hope on them. For a realist, though, it's difficult to believe that enough of those scenarios will play out the right way for the team to compete, especially after a spring that sent pretty much all the wrong signals. Rotation Rebuilt It will be a shame if the Twins can't score enough, because the pitching staff is finally looking respectable. Minnesota enters the season with a rotation that carries a decent track record and solid upside. It seems unlikely that the team will fly through arms as rapidly as in the past few years, and even if that's the case there is now a level of depth that simply hasn't been available before. At the very least, having starters that don't routinely dig early five-run holes should make the games much more watchable, and if needs should become evident, there are prospects coming and there is a lot of money available to spend. So help is on the way. Unfortunately, it might not be here as immediately as we'd like. The Transition Continues Miguel Sano's Tommy John development was a devastating blow that sadly reflects the present status of the Minnesota Twins -- amazing things are coming, with the potential to fundamentally change a losing culture, but we're just going to have to wait a little bit longer as the goalposts keep inching backward. This year, players currently on the roster and ones that will join along the way have an opportunity to accelerate that timeline, providing a much-needed jolt to a snakebitten franchise that sorely needs one. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: josmilpinto.jpg Coming into spring training, I don't think that Ron Gardenhire and the Twins were planning on bringing Josmil Pinto north with the big-league club. The young backstop had been awfully impressive with the bat during a September audition in 2013, sure, but Twins officials commented repeatedly throughout the offseason that he was still somewhat raw and his defensive game needed work. That was a fair position to hold. Pinto was a bit of a slow developer in the minors, and had played only 19 games in Triple-A. As Chris Parmelee had demonstrated two years earlier, you can only put so much stock into a great September debut in the majors. As spring camp unfolded, Pinto hit, and -- for the most part -- no one else did. With the offense looking rather shabby, the Twins decided that they needed Pinto's bat, and that turned out to be very wise indeed as the catcher's stellar April helped fuel a surprisingly strong start for the lineup. Since the end of April, though, Pinto has quietly faded. Dating back to May 1st, he's hitting just .200/.227/.329, and after posting an even 17-to-17 K/BB ratio in the first month, his plate approach has deteriorated substantially, with 19 strikeouts against three walks in 75 plate appearances. Pinto's decline may be attributable, in part, to his sporadic playing time -- he has started only 18 of the team's 39 games since the start of May -- but some holes in his swing have also become evident, and it's clear that his defense needs work. He'll require regular reps in order to improve these areas, and he was having a tough enough time finding those with the Twins before Kendrys Morales came aboard. Since the Twins are paying him a lot of money, you can bet that Morales is going to get the vast majority of starts at DH, and Kurt Suzuki has earned the opportunity to start most of the time at catcher -- he's simply been a much better player than Pinto, all-around. So the writing is on the wall. Pinto is going to head back to Triple-A, and he'll be replaced by a player like Eric Fryer who can more justifiably spend most of his time on the bench. The only question at this point is this: What are the Twins waiting for? Pinto is a very important long-term piece for this club, and letting him languish on the bench as he has for much of the past several weeks isn't going to aid his development. I suspect that the Twins are simply waiting to make sure that Morales is up to speed after his long layoff before taking away the best alternative option at DH. A few good games from the newly acquired slugger should be all they need to make that determination. What do you think? Are you OK with Pinto heading back to Triple-A to play regularly, or do you believe the Twins should keep him around and find ways to get him into their lineup? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Trout.jpg The Big Picture When the Angels skidded to an 18-25 start, many in Anaheim were hitting the panic button. After the most aggressive offseason of any club in baseball, the offense was flatlining – thanks in large part to the remarkable struggles of LA's marquee acquisition: Albert Pujols. Akin to the 2006 Twins, who reversed course after a 25-33 start to win 96 games, the Angels have gone on a midseason tear, with rookie and MVP frontrunner Mike Trout leading the way. They are 5.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West, but lead the race for the top wild-card spot. At this point, they've got to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making the postseason. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Of course, when you splurge for $316 million over the winter, simply making the postseason isn't enough. The Angels have championship aspirations, and with the Rangers and Yankees both looking especially strong, they'll need any edge they can get. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Los Angeles will likely be looking to upgrade the lineup, where there are a few clear weak spots. While Trout and Torii Hunter are holding down two outfield positions, the the final corner has been hurting, with Peter Bourjos hitting .237 and Vernon Wells looking unappealing as a full-time option when he returns from the disabled list. Adding a guy like, say, Denard Span or Josh Willingham would certainly round out that group nicely while pushing the lineup closer to the level of a Texas or New York. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Pitching is a major strength for the Halos, so unless they're looking for a fourth weapon in the rotation to complement Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Dan Haren, they seem unlikely to be major players for Francisco Liriano. Aside from left field, the biggest weakness in the Angel lineup is catcher, where Bobby Wilson has been getting regular tread with a .483 OPS. Ryan Doumit certainly looks like a potential fit, but the Twins seem unlikely to move him after handing him a two-year extension. Summary The Angels are front line contenders and are certainly in position to buy at the deadline, but they're red-hot right now and it's not clear their need is great enough to drop big prospects for a guy like Span or Liriano. Then again, with expectations as higher as they are, who knows where their desperation may lead. Read on to find a few prospects in LA's system that could intrigue the Twins should Jerry Dipoto come calling (sadly, I somehow doubt Trout is an option). --- Potential Trade Candidates Garrett Richards – RHP He was considered the organization's top pitching prospect entering the season, but he's scuffled in Triple-A and the majors this year. Still, his numbers in the minors up until this point cannot be ignored and he works in the mid-90s with his fastball. He's still only 24. Nick Maronde – LHP Another promising young hurler who has looked good this year, flashing strikeout stuff and good control in Single-A at age 22, though he missed a couple months due to a strained lat. John Hellweg – RHP Hellweg is a nice prospect in his own right. His stock his has dropped this year with a good-not-great performance in Double-A as a 23-year-old (3.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 84/56 K/BB in 111 IP), but that could be just what makes him him gettable. Ariel Pena – RHP Pitching on the same team as Hellweg, and posting slightly better numbers at the same age. Neither Hellweg, Maronde nor Pena are top-tier prospects, but they're all fairly similar in quality and their redundancy may make them more expendable in the eyes of Dipoto. Click here to view the article

If there's one area of the Twins roster that you can look at and feel completely comfortable, both now and going forward, it's the bullpen. On the left-handed side, their best arm is the closer, but they also have Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar, with Pedro Hernandez also offering some potential. In terms of right-handers, there's Jared Burton and Casey Fien topping the depth chart, with Anthony Swarzak anchoring the long role. That's six relief jobs that you can already consider claimed for next year, meaning that there will probably be only one opening available for the taking.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] With Josh Roenicke outrighted and likely out of the picture, many contenders stand in line to join the bullpen as useful right-handed relievers, both in the immediate future and down the line. Let's take a look at them. Michael Tonkin, 23 Download attachment: tonkin.jpg Tonkin's outstanding major-league debut this season flew under the radar, at least from my perspective. He came up for one appearance in July, then another in August, and got a more extended look in September at a time when many fans had stopped paying attention. I personally saw Tonkin pitch maybe twice in the final month, because I was watching fewer games at that point and, when I did watch, I often tuned out after the Twins fell into an early hole. (Interestingly, Tonkin made nine appearances this season and didn't pitch in a single winning effort.) Tonkin didn't pitch quite as well as his stellar 0.79 ERA suggests, because he also allowed five unearned runs, but his peripherals were solid (1.06 WHIP, 10/3 K/BB ratio in 11 1/3 innings) and he flashed a powerful fastball that averaged nearly 95 MPH. He has established himself over the past couple seasons as the organization's best relief prospect, with setup or even closer potential, and is easily the favorite to claim the open spot in next year's bullpen. Ryan Pressly, 24 That Pressly spent the entire 2013 season in the majors was more a function of necessity than his performance. The Twins needed to keep the Rule 5 draftee on the 25-man roster all year long in order to keep him in the organization and, to his credit, Pressly made it fairly easy to do so. Over 49 appearances he totaled 76 2/3 innings, operating as a hybrid middle/long reliever and achieving solid results with a 3.87 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Based on his lack of strikeouts (5.8 K/9) and his mediocre control (3.2 BB/9) it's tough to see the right-hander maintaining that effectiveness long-term unless he makes noticeable improvements, but at least the organization will be able to keep him around and figure what they want to do with him. There's been some talk of moving Pressly back into a starting role, even though he struggled mightily as a starter in the minors before being transitioned to the bullpen. A.J. Achter, 25 It's unknown whether Achter will eventually make an impact in the majors, but he has already easily surpassed his draft status simply by emerging as a legitimate prospect. A 46th-round pick out of Michigan State University back in 2010, Achter has registered a 3.17 ERA in four minor-league seasons while averaging 9.6 K/9. This year, he pitched well enough in the first half at New Britain to earn a promotion to Rochester, where he finished with a 3.04 ERA in 16 appearances. Now, the 25-year-old is participating in the Arizona Fall League, where he has a chance to further establish himself as a contender to join next year's relief corps. His biggest obstacle at this point is command; in 60 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year, he issued 33 walks. Zach Jones, 22 Joining Achter in the AFL is Jones, who is farther away from the majors but also possesses considerably more upside. Acquired in the fourth round of the 2012 draft, Jones has barely gotten his pro career started but has already demonstrated the ability to dominate, with 104 strikeouts and a 1.97 ERA in his first 68 2/3 innings in the Twins organization. Much like Achter, he needs to refine his control (5.1 BB/9 rate), but he has proven almost unhittable as opponents batted just .172 against him this year in Ft. Myers. Trevor May, 24 This name is a bit of a wild card in that May has worked as a starter for nearly his entire career, and the Twins are surely hoping he can continue to develop in that capacity, but many believe his long-term future is as a reliever. May certainly has MLB-caliber stuff but his command and stamina have been lacking and he didn't do enough this year in his second turn at Double-A to alleviate any such concerns. In 27 starts with New Britain, he averaged just 5 2/3 innings per start. From a 24-year-old repeating Double-A, you would certainly like to see more consistently deep outings. As a reliever, May could maximize his strengths while better hiding his weaknesses. But of course, with their dire shortage of starters in the high minors, the Twins will likely show patience with him in his current role for the time being. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: medicinefordummies.jpg Last week, Denard Span finally landed on the disabled list one day before rosters expanded and 18 days after initially suffering a shoulder injury back in early August. Not the medical staff's finest hour, probably, but the uproar I saw amongst casual fans and hardcores alike sort of left me dumbfounded. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] My Twitter timeline exploded with rants against the team doctors. Commenters here at Twins Daily vented in similar fashion. Clearly folks are fed up with the strange injury situations that continue to arise with this club. That's understandable. Still, I'm wondering if we haven't reached a point where people are jumping the gun a bit to crucify the medical staff for every mishap. Here's a fact: medicine is an inexact science. Here's another: the members of the Twins' medical staff are highly trained experts who have reached an elite level in their profession. Most of them have been around for more than the past two years, yet the implication seems to be that since the start of 2011 they've just forgotten how to properly diagnose injuries. The truth is that this staff made mistakes before 2011 – as does every other staff in the league – and they went largely unnoticed because the Twins weren't one of the worst teams in baseball. My sense is that the higher incidence of injuries in the past two years and the club's struggles overall are causing a lot of people to exaggerate the role of the medical staff in lingering ailments and goofy DL management. It wouldn't be a unique case. As an example, let's look at this latest situation with Span. The fact that it took the doctors so long to properly diagnose his sprained sternoclavicular joint is concerning, but the outfielder didn't make their jobs easier by backing out of an MRI due to claustrophobia. Additionally, we simply don't know whether the Twins would have shown the same patience and deference to Span if the games actually mattered and they were legitimately hurting themselves by tying up that 25th roster spot. They weren't. Sure, there have been examples where the team's medical staff has pretty clearly erred. Those extend back past 2011. Like I said, it's an inexact science. But frustration seems to have some people believing that we're dealing with a bunch of quacks who have completely lost the ability to competently do their jobs, all while the numerous execs running the organization have failed to notice or care. Pretty ridiculous notion born out of a scapegoat mentality, if you ask me. To be clear, I'm not saying that the Twins' medical staff compares well to the rest of the league. They might even be among the worst. But I don't believe we have the evidence to make that assessment. Judging a doctor's performance isn't like judging a pitcher, or hitter, or manager, or GM. Each situation is unique and there are lot more factors in play than some would assume. Maybe after this season ends the front office will clear out the entire medical staff and bring in new faces across the board. I'd say that's unlikely, and I doubt it would meaningfully resolve any of the real problems plaguing this organization. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: cole.jpg The Minnesotan, Golden Gopher alum and baseball fan inside me all want to see Cole DeVries succeed in a Twins uniform. The analyst inside me knows that he probably won't. DeVries is a great story. He was signed by the Twins as an undrafted free agent back in 2006 after a solid career at the University of Minnesota, and has gradually worked his way up the organizational ladder. On Tuesday, the 27-year-old was called up to the majors to fill Jason Marquis' vacant roster spot. He'll make his big-league debut on Thursday in a start against the White Sox. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The soft-tossing right-hander's minor-league track record is far from spectacular. In six seasons, he has gone 32-42 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He has proven extremely hittable in the high minors, allowing 413 hits in 366 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. That's an average of 10.2 H/9 – not exactly a change of pace for a Twins team that currently leads the American League in hits allowed. DeVries hangs in the mid-80s with his velocity and has largely survived by peppering the strike zone, especially this year as he's issued only seven walks in 46 2/3 innings for Rochester. MLB hitters are likely to tee off on his brand of soft serve, so I suspect his stay in the Twins' rotation will be short. Nevertheless, it's cool to see him get a chance to pitch on the big stage and perhaps – like Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters before him – he can catch an unfamiliar league by surprise and conjure up some good results for a desperate staff. Click here to view the article

Despite the fact that more than half their games have been on the road and five of their seven series have been against clubs that finished with winning records last year, the Twins are above .500 after 21 games. They've managed to win despite starting pitching that has been astonishingly bad. Nearly everyone expected improvement from the rotation after large offseason investments were made, but so far the Twins have gotten a 5.91 ERA from their starters, a regression from last year's 5.26 mark. The key to the early success has been outscoring the opposition, specifically by getting on base more often. This was well exemplified in Thursday's series-clinching victory against the Rays. Three of the first five hitters to face Erik Bedard reached on a free pass, and all three ended up scoring to give Minnesota a lead it would never relinquish. As we approach the end of April, the Twins are leading the Majors in walks taken. This continues a shift toward increased plate patience that we've seen in the past few seasons. As you can see below, the lineup has been gradually reshaping its reputation. Here are their MLB ranks in walks since their postseason run began in 2002: 2002: 25th 2003: 20th 2004: 17th 2005: 19th 2006: 22nd 2007: 19th 2008: 22nd 2009: 12th 2010: 8th 2011: 27th 2012: 10th 2013: 7th 2014: 1st During their glory years, the Twins frequently had one of the better team batting averages in the league, but they almost always ranked in the bottom half in terms of walks. The lopsided philosophical emphasis on limiting walks for pitchers versus a lack of emphasis on drawing walks for hitters always seemed to represent a blatant contradiction in the coaching staff's approach. The Twins have always viewed the base on balls as a dangerous weapon for the opposing offense, but consistently failed to deploy it as a featured component of their own offensive attack. Now they are, and it's paying off. One of the central concepts in sabermetrics is that the most important aspect of scoring runs is getting on base. The Twins are reinforcing that now. They currently rank second in the American League in scoring despite ranking eighth in batting average and 10th in slugging. But thanks to their propensity for drawing the free pass, they lead the league in on-base percentage. The high volume of base runners has created plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Obviously guys like Chris Colabello, who leads the AL in RBI, have been taking advantage, but as a team the Twins are hitting only .256 with runners in scoring position. The bottom line is that if you put enough men on base, you're going to score runs, even if your lineup lacks a bunch of dominant hitters. Is the increase in walks reflective of the Twins embracing this notion? Tom Brunansky, who took over as hitting coach last year, was a guy who relied on the free pass during his playing days, helping him put together an impressive career as a batsman despite a .245 lifetime average. When you consider that the Twins have had their two highest MLB ranks for walks in the last 13 years during Brunansky's two years as an instructor, it's hard to downplay his influence. Download attachment: Dozier.jpg That's especially true when you look at some of the specific examples. Trevor Plouffe, who has struggled with plate discipline for most of his career in the Majors (and Minors, for that matter) has 14 walks in 21 games and a .412 OBP. Brian Dozier had a 7 percent BB rate during his first two years with the Twins; he's at 16 percent early this season. Perhaps the most noteworthy is Josmil Pinto, a rookie who entered this season with only 40 games played above Double-A. He's drawn walks in nearly a quarter of his trips to the plate (22.5 percent), which not only gives him the team lead but ranks second in the majors behind Jose Bautista. As spring came to a close, it was clear that the Twins weren't going to dominate offensively based on talent alone. Under such circumstances, a good team with smart coaches alters its overall approach to gain advantages in other ways. That's what we've seen from the Twins. Brunansky, the rest of the coaches and certainly the hitters themselves deserve a lot of credit for that. Hopefully they can continue to utilize that edge this weekend against the Tigers, who (somewhat surprisingly) have the fourth fewest walks of any AL team. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: deduno.jpg An updated glance at the Twins' starting pitching depth chart, with a couple weeks remaining in the season. Barring any major developments over the rest of the month, this is how we view the team's SP pecking order heading into the offseason: 1. Scott Diamond. He's gone through some struggles recently, with a 6.64 ERA over his past four starts, but that was to be expected. In addition to the fact that he was bound for some regression, he might be wearing down with 183 innings pitched this season. Nevertheless, he's clearly at the head of the pack. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 2. Sam Deduno. Against all odds, the 29-year-old continues to turn in quality starts despite an ugly 48-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio. After tossing a dud against the Rangers on August 24, he's bounced back with a 1.80 ERA in three starts since. Most impressive, he's struck out 18 and walked only six in 20 innings during that span. 3. Cole De Vries. He's done for the season after suffering cracked ribs on a comeback line drive last week, but De Vries has seemingly positioned himself well by turning in a solid 4.11 ERA and backing it up with decent peripherals (outside of his ugly homer rate). Still, it's difficult to trust his stuff. 4. Liam Hendriks. The rookie's path to becoming a better pitcher is clear: attack the strike zone more and bring down that .350 BABIP. He's continued to struggle in both areas since rejoining the rotation, but at least he's dialed down the long balls since his earlier stint. 5. P.J. Walters. After a fairly impressive stretch earlier in the year, he spent two months on disabled list and in two starts since returning he has been flat-out terrible. Still, his performance when healthy should be enough to merit another shot in Rochester next year. 6. Esmerling Vasquez. His strong performance in Triple-A earned him a September call-up, but two putrid outings since joining the Twins – in addition to the fact that he's been used almost exclusively as a reliever in the minors lately – confirm what we already thought: he's not equipped to start in the bigs. --- 7. Kyle Gibson. Among pitchers not currently in the rotation, Gibson has to be the most likely candidate to claim a spot out of spring training next year. He pitched well in a short minor-league rehab stint this year and will hopefully be fully on track after throwing in the Arizona Fall League. 8. Brian Duensing. His struggles as a starter (6.92 ERA) and success as a reliever (2.98 ERA) should have the Twins convinced of what his role needs to be. 9. Anthony Swarzak. Like Duensing, Swarzak is clearly meant to be pitching out of the bullpen. He's a useful long reliever but nothing more than an emergency spot starter. 10. B.J. Hermsen. Dark horse for a rotation spot next year? Probably not, as the Twins aren't apt to rush young prospects, but the 22-year-old's long track record of success – which continued this year as he posted the fifth-best ERA in the Class-AA Eastern League despite younger than anyone in front of him – cannot be ignored. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: yunelescobar.jpg In their blockbuster trade with the Blue Jays earlier this week, the Marlins acquired a player who has been discussed in some circles as a potential target for the Twins: Yunel Escobar. The 30-year-old shortstop is coming off a rather tumultuous year in Toronto, but there's no denying that he's got some legitimate talent, which has been in short supply at the shortstop position here in Minnesota. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Interestingly, the Marlins won't be using Escobar at short; instead they'll plug in young Adeiny Hechavarria, also acquired in the deal. The plan for now is to shift Escobar over to third, but Miami is reportedly open to flipping him and his $5 million salary. If he's available at a reasonable price, the Twins would have to at least consider. With a .282/.353/.390 career hitting line and very solid defense, he would represent a clear upgrade at a very problematic position, and he's under team control at a reasonable price through 2015. However, acquiring him also might require the Twins to go against their long-standing philosophy of focusing on character and clubhouse chemistry. I haven't met Yunel Escobar personally so I can't say with certainty that he's a bad dude, but he has a reputation as a malcontent and it didn't help that this season he was suspended for having hateful, homophobic language painted on his face during a game. Perhaps the Twins should welcome an opportunity to shake up their standards. By all accounts, the teams of the last two seasons have been filled with nice guys, but nevertheless the results were lousy. Maybe it's time for this front office to start focusing solely on production and on-field value, while dealing with auxiliary issues as they come up. Does Escobar provide enough on-field value to make pursuing him worthwhile? That's a very fair question in light of his performance this year. But as Terry Ryan and Co. make their evaluations, I hope they won't rule him out simply because of attitude problems. It's time to start prioritizing the quality of the product on the field over the climate in the locker room. Click here to view the article

After seeing the two starters who were supposed to serve as veteran leaders in the rotation exit after recording only 12 outs on successive nights, it's not hard to understand why the Twins have been carrying 13 pitchers on the roster for much of the year. What is hard to understand is why, with all these different relief slots, and with so many different guys being shuffled in and out, the Twins still haven't been able to find room for Anthony Slama on the major-league roster.Download attachment: anthonyslama.jpg [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Slama has clearly never been held in particularly high esteem by the organization, despite his dazzling numbers in the minors. He owns a lifetime 2.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and he has averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings at every single level, yet he's been mired in Triple-A for four years and at age 28 he has logged only seven MLB innings. The knocks against Slama are that his control isn't very good and he's weak against left-handed hitting. Those things both may be true, but neither precludes him from being a useful big-league reliever. His numbers in Triple-A are absurdly dominant. In 133 1/3 total innings for Rochester, he has registered a 2.36 ERA and 161-to-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio, yielding only 87 hits. This year, he has struck out 43 percent of the batters he's faced while posting a 0.59 ERA as the Red Wings' closer. Although he's been able to consistently overcome his flaws and decimate hitters at every level of the minors, the Twins simply do not seem to view him as a guy who can make an impact at the next level. Apparently, they're not alone. At the end of last season, Slama was removed from the 40-man roster and exposed to waivers. Nobody claimed him. I presumed at the time that both the decision to outright him and the lack of interest from even reliever-needy bottom feeders stemmed largely from elbow problems that ended his 2011 campaign in August. Yet this year, the side-arming righty has shown no ill effects from the injury – he's been nearly unhittable. So at this point Slama is healthy, averaging almost two strikeouts per inning in Triple-A, and 28 years old. Oh, and there's an open spot on the 40-man roster. In this lost season, it's baffling that the Twins aren't interested in taking an extended look at what the guy can do against big-league hitters. If control is his biggest problem, why not make him a project for Rick Anderson? What is there to lose? Slama's stuff might not be especially great, but I have an exceedingly difficult time believing that a pitcher can overpower hitters to that degree at the highest level of the minor leagues and stand no chance of providing value in the majors. Give him a chance. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: shaun-marcum.jpg Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported via Twitter on Tuesday that the Twins have "checked in" on right-handed pitcher Shaun Marcum. This isn't really noteworthy, since Terry Ryan has already told reporters that he's been in contact with the agents for every free agent starter, but Marcum's name in particular is an interesting one. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Most of the pitchers that the Twins have been specifically connected to thus far – names like Joe Blanton, Brett Myers and John Lannan – are the usual suspects: bargain bin hurlers with middle-of-the-rotation upside and out-of-the-rotation downside. (Of course, "bargain bin" might be a misnomer in this market, even if it includes names like those.) But of course, if they want to even feign contention next year, the Twins are going to need to land at least one guy who could conceivably perform at the level of a No. 1 or No. 2 above Scott Diamond. And given the need to fill multiple rotation spots, they're going to have to find a way to do it without coughing up the vast majority of available funds on one player. So it is easy to see why Ryan might view someone like Marcum as his best bet to land a potential high-end guy, especially with Dan Haren now off the table after signing a one-year, $13 million deal with Washington. Haren was available at a relatively low guaranteed sum due to concerns about the condition of his arm, and the same will likely be true for Marcum. He missed about two months this season due to elbow soreness, which has been a problem for him in the past. (He missed the 2009 season due to Tommy John surgery.) Marcum pitched very well around that injury, turning in a 3.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 109-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 124 innings. In the prior two seasons, he had totaled about 200 innings each with a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP overall. Since his surgery, he's been consistently effective on the mound. He strikes people out at a solid rate, throws it in the zone and is quite tough to hit (.241 career OBA). Based on the numbers Marcum looks like a slam-dunk, but that vague elbow tightness from this past summer is concerning, especially for a club that has seen no shortage of arm injuries and is looking for reliability above all else in its additions to the rotation. Of course, the elbow issue could also be a blessing in disguise, because it might be just enough to scare away contending teams from matching a high offer. If the Twins are able to sign Marcum and he stays healthy, he's a legitimate centerpiece to the rotation. Spending fairly big bucks on that gamble is… well, a gamble. But in this environment, what isn't? Click here to view the article

Here at the All-Star break, the Twins find themselves 11 games out of first place, with a record 13 games below .500. The most likely scenario is that they sell off their assets within the next couple weeks and coast to a forgettable finish near the bottom of the division. But just what would it take for the Twins to surge back to the top of the division here in the second half? Anyone would have to admit that it's still possible, if extremely improbable. We've seen this team make up some significant deficits after the break in years past under Ron Gardenhire. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: shooting_star.jpg Below, I've listed out a few things that, in my mind, would have to happen for the Twins to pull off their greatest turnaround yet. Feel free to add your own thoughts in the comments section. (And, please, no "It's not going to happen" responses. The unlikelihood is obvious.) 1) Come out of the break on fire. The trade deadline is only two weeks away, and with a double-digit deficit in the standings, the front office will have no choice but to sell. Without the likes of Francisco Liriano and others, they team will be dead in the water. If, however, the Twins can rattle off a bunch of wins in short order – including dominating key series against the White Sox and Indians – Terry Ryan may be compelled to keep the gang together and see what they can do. 2) Dominate the division. I hinted at this above, but the Twins would really need to lay the hammer down on divisional opponents. They're 11 games behind and trailing four different clubs, so with 77 games remaining there is little margin for error. They probably can't afford to lose a single series against Chicago, Detroit or Cleveland. 3) The White Sox must fall. Quietly, the Sox have turned into one of baseball's finest teams. Their 47-38 record ranks as sixth best in the majors, and they've been on a tear lately winning 11 of their last 15. If Chicago wins 90-some games, the Twins won't be catching them. Similarly, the Twins need the Tigers and Indians to remain lukewarm in the final months. 4) Starting pitching must lead the way. Shockingly, the Twins got three good starts against an offensive powerhouse in Texas heading into the break. Yet, their starters still own the worst ERA in the American League. Minnesota will need to win at a .650+ clip from here on out to have a chance; they simply won't be doing that without vastly improved starting pitching. 5) The bullpen can't slip up. It seems we might already be seeing some signs of the bullpen's heavy workload over the first half catching up. Given the aforementioned slim margin for error, the Twins can't really afford to let late leads slip away like they did in Texas over the weekend. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: lirianosmile.jpg This week's series against the first-place White Sox will serve as a tough test for this Twins team. They've rebounded after a lousy start to go 13-10 over their last 23 games, remaining on the periphery of an AL Central race that no club seems poised to run away with. In three days, the Twins could conceivably be within 5.5 games of first place. They could also find themselves out of it by double digits. Perhaps no one will be under a bigger microscope in this crucial showdown than Francisco Liriano.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's been great since returning to the rotation at the end of May, posting a 2.67 ERA and 35-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 1/3 innings while allowing only one home run, but his opponents in those five starts have been the Athletics, Royals, Cubs, Brewers and Pirates. Those teams rank 28th, 19th, 25th, 10th and 29th in the majors in OPS, respectively. Liriano has been feasting on weak competition, for the most part, and on Monday he'll be matching up against a first-place team with a starter in Jake Peavy who has been flat-out excellent all year. It would be a stretch to say the Twins are even on the fringes of contention at this point, but they're not out of it. Climbing back into the mix would require a continued transformation from the rotation, and Liriano will need to be one of the guys leading that charge. Both he and the team will have a chance to make a statement at Target Field on Monday night. Click here to view the article

After finishing 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in Sunday's sweep-clinching win over the White Sox, Oswaldo Arcia ran his hitless streak up to 31 consecutive at-bats. As Phil Miller noted in his post-game wrap-up, that's eight short of the franchise record. For all his talent and explosiveness, Arcia has proven to be a slump-prone hitter, with a tendency to look totally lost during extended stretches at the plate. Right now, he's mired in what I have to imagine is one of the worst funks of his life. It's not just the lack of hits -- it's the intensely bad at-bats. Seemingly every other plate appearance involves three or four pitches, a few non-competitive swings, and a strikeout or a pop fly. Arcia is a good hitter. He conquered the minor leagues with remarkable ease and has certainly demonstrated the characteristics of a quality MLB slugger. Why isn't that showing through right now? Download attachment: arciaK.jpg This isn't a situation like Jason Kubel, where a prolonged slump was evidence of diminished bat speed and declining ability. Arcia is only 23 and strong as a bull. Clearly, a big part of this is mental, but I wonder if that's all it is. I'm reminded of a tweet posted by my colleague, John Bonnes, back on June 10th: I remember reading it at the time and thinking, "Overreact much there, Johnny Boy?" I mean, this was Arcia's second start since the ankle injury. But sure enough, it was only the beginning of what has turned into a three-week cold spell for the young outfielder. So maybe there's something to that after all. Early in the season, Arcia had missed almost two months with a wrist injury, but he came back red-hot in late May, batting .378 with four doubles, four homers and 12 RBI in his first 11 games off the DL. I was at Target Field for the last of those games, in which he sprained the ankle when he was picked off at second base after a double. It was a gut-punch, because at that point Arcia was the star of the offense; he'd smashed a grand slam earlier that night. He was frustrated and in obvious pain as he limped off the field. I was surprised to see him back the next night as a pinch-hitter. The Twins had seemingly dodged a bullet. But since rolling his ankle, Arcia is 2-for-39 (.051) with 15 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances. Could the ankle be the culprit for his ongoing issues? Has the wrist flared up again? Or is he really just stuck in his own head? Whatever the case, his slump is headed toward historic proportions and the Twins are going to have to figure something out. They've already given him a couple days off for a "mental break," and that appears to have helped little. Perhaps some extended rest would help get him back to 100 percent physically. Or maybe a demotion to Triple-A is in order. That seems like an unappealing option, since you'd like to see Arcia fight through this thing in the big leagues and there aren't any clearly superior alternatives available. But I do wonder how much longer Ron Gardenhire is going to be able to tolerate these hideous at-bats. What do you think? What should the Twins do about the struggling, vitally important young outfielder? [/hr] Since the Twins defeated the White Sox on Sunday to complete a four-game sweep, you get 50% off your L or XL pizza from PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code 'TWINSWIN'! Click here to view the article

Buyers or Sellers Just 1.5 games behind Detroit in the Central and three out in the Wild Card race, Cleveland has been the American League's biggest surprise. Staring up at a stacked Tigers squad that last year pulled away with a 44-32 record in the second half en route to a World Series berth, you'd better believe that the Indians are looking to add at the deadline. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: cleveland-indians.jpg What They Need The Indians could use some help at the top of the rotation, where the talented yet inconsistent Justin Masterson currently leads the way, and have been linked to Matt Garza, among others. The Twins obviously can't offer anything in the way of high-end starting pitching. Cleveland may not be prepared to make the kind of aggressive moves necessary to garner that kind of talent, anyway. Although in the thick of things presently, this is a flawed team that is still in the midst of a rebuilding project geared toward fielding a title contender once Trevor Bauer (hopefully) figures things out and top prospects like Francisco Lindor and Danny Salazar are prepared to make an impact. It would be short-sighted to part with any premium prospect talent in the -- probably futile -- hope of catching the Tigers, but smaller deals aimed at improving, say, a bullpen that ranks 23rd in the majors in ERA make more sense. This is where the Tribe might find a match in the Twins. What Might Work Intra-divisional trades are somewhat rare but Cleveland and Minnesota have hooked up on minor post-deadline deals in recent years, with one sending Carl Pavano to the Twins and another sending Jim Thome to the Indians. If the two clubs were to connect again this year, I'd expect a similar non-blockbuster swap. Cleveland has been a little weak at DH, where 42-year-old Jason Giambi has been the principal recipient of at-bats. Ryan Doumit could be a fit there, although with Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher on hand, the Indians are already pretty well stocked on 1B/DH types. In the bullpen, any one of the Jared Burton/Casey Fien/Brian Duensing group is a candidate. Chris Perez is firmly locked in as the closer and is controlled through next year, essentially ruling Cleveland out as a Glen Perkins destination. But beyond Perez the Indians only have a couple reliable relief options. Vinnie Pestano, a bullpen ace over the last two years, was recently demoted from the setup role. Sleeper Targets Mitch Brown - RHP - Rookie League - 19 years old A second-round draft pick in 2012 out of Century High School in Minnesota, Brown enjoyed a solid pro debut last year but has had a tough follow-up in 2013. He started out in Low-A, pitched poorly, landed on the DL for six weeks, and has since been pitching (poorly) in the Arizona Rookie League. Potential buy-low guy with added appeal thanks to the local ties. Might not be in play for anything the Twins have to offer, even with the poor results this season. Jesus Aguilar - 1B - AA - 23 years old If the Twins are looking to add more depth to their future first base equation, Aguilar would be a worthwhile name to look at. Right-handed hitter with a little pop and the ability to draw a walk. He currently has a .760 OPS in Double-A. Tony Wolters - 2B/C - High A - 21 years old Mired behind four superior middle infield prospects in Cleveland's system (Lindor, Dorssys Paulino, Ronny Rodriguez and Jose Ramirez) Wolters has transitioned this year to catcher. Opposing teams have run wild on him, attempting a whopping 51 steals in 31 games, so who knows how long that experiment will last. The Twins have no such concerns about overloaded infield depth, and Wolters has shown some decent offensive ability in four pro seasons. Austin Adams - RHP - AA - 26 years old Interesting case, this one. A former shortstop in college who converted to pitching in the pros, Adams performed well as a starter in the low levels of the minors with a big fastball that ranked as the best in Cleveland's system. A shoulder injury cost him the entire 2012 season, but this year Adams is back pitching out of the bullpen, where he has racked up tons of strikeouts (49 in 34 innings) while registering a 2.65 ERA. His control is iffy and he's pretty old for a prospect (he'll turn 27 in August) but if the Twins were going to give up an established relief arm he'd be an interesting one to bring back. Dream Target Dorssys Paulino - SS - Low A - 18 years old Lindor, who is backing up his top prospect status with a great season at High-A, isn't going anywhere. Paulino, another shortstop prospect playing in the Midwest League as a teenager, might be a more realistic possibility, if the Twins could package enough talent. He's a long way from the majors and he's hitting just .238 this season, but Paulino has big upside and would instantly give the Twins a viable prospect at shortstop, something they have lacked for a long, long time. Click here to view the article

Teams generally enter every season with a few question marks in the rotation. The Twins, unfortunately, look like they'll head into the 2012 campaign with five. With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league. Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s. Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign. Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline. Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break. Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery. Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason. Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign. Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well. Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through. It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps. Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good. I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible. But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you? Download attachment: coin_toss_11.jpg Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mauer.jpg Ask yourself this question, and be honest in your reply: If Joe Mauer were becoming a free agent this offseason, is there any chance – ANY chance, whatsoever – that he would fetch a six-year, $138 million contract? I think the answer is pretty clearly no.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That's the prorated remaining portion of the eight-year contract Mauer signed with the Twins after a 2009 season in which he was arguably baseball's best player. He was 26, he was one of the game's most popular players and he was as healthy as he'd ever been. That was then, and this is now. In three seasons since, Mauer has hit .311/.393/.429 – impressive numbers but nowhere near the otherworldly stats he compiled in his MVP campaign. He has been besieged by injuries, missing a quarter of his team's games. And as he prepares to enter his 30s, he has already begun to transition away from catcher. Mauer is a great player and a tremendous asset. But any way you slice it, his value has declined pretty sharply over the past three seasons, which is largely a testament to how insanely high it was at the time he re-upped with the Twins. My point in all this is to say that no baseball team is going to give up quality prospects for the right to absorb Mauer's enormous and substantially risky contract. For all the hubbub about the catcher being put through waivers earlier this week – an extremely routine and procedural move that probably shouldn't have been reported in such provocative terms – the truth is that Terry Ryan would have been a fool not to expose Mauer to the league. He said as much himself. If some team were to go crazy like the Dodgers and offer up good young players to take on more than $100 million in salary commitments (extraordinarily unlikely since that bonanza was basically unprecedented), shouldn't the Twins at least hear them out? There is no downside to testing the waters, and certainly no player should be considered flat-out untradable by anyone when it comes to a rebuilding team. As you'd expect, Ryan got no bites. Because no team is in position to do what Los Angeles did. Had that wacky trade not gone down so recently, this "story" would have been a passing note rather than a daylong talking point. Mauer's oversized contract and full no-trade clause make it extremely improbable that he'll be moved, now or in the future. I mean extremely improbable – like Jim Carrey so-you're-telling-me-there's-a-chance improbable. It might be fun to daydream about what kind of impact such an outlandish move might have, but at the end of the day such thoughts are nothing more. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: plouffemorneau.jpg On the surface, this 2012 Twins campaign seems painfully similar to last season's train wreck. On this date a year ago, the Twins sat with a 56-77 record, which sadly compares favorably to their current 52-77 mark. Both seasons were marked by abysmal starts, midsummer rebounds and late implosions (at least the current squad is headed that way, with an 8-17 record since the start of August). Yet, looking beyond the similarly horrible results, this season has provided Twins fans with much more in the way of long-term reasons for hope.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Last year, aside from the brutal on-field results, you had a front office that appeared lost, numerous injuries that placed the future outlooks of key players in doubt, and setbacks striking high-profile prospects throughout the organization. Here are some of the developments that have me feeling much better about the franchise's future than I did a year ago, even as the Twins continue to maintain their label as one of the worst teams in baseball. 1. Health This is big. Injuries were the No. 1 storyline in 2011 as the roster was ravaged by bad break after bad break. Seemingly minor ailments kept players on the shelf for weeks, team doctors conjured up bizarre diagnoses, and we began to wonder whether franchise cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were permanently damaged goods. Both those players have stayed on the field and produced this year, along with most of their teammates. In fact, free agent acquisitions Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit have enjoyed unprecedented health. Clearly, the pendulum has swung in the other direction. One can certainly make the case that the team's awful performance in spite of many players avoiding injury is a bad thing, but there's no denying that team-wide good health is a positive harbinger for the future. 2. Chris Parmelee A person could hardly be blamed for not being sold on Parmelee's "breakout" last year, which involved a fairly solid second half in Rochester and a great final month with the Twins. The first baseman showed some nice signs, but not enough to overshadow four years of unspectacular performance in the minors, especially after he looked overwhelmed during an early stint with the Twins this year. Nevertheless, you simply can't overlook what the guy is doing in Triple-A right now. His .341/.460/.655 line with 17 homers (already a career high) is nothing short of jaw-dropping. His plate discipline has been superb and his power legit. Parmelee suddenly looks like a building block – one that gives the Twins a fair amount of flexibility going forward. 3. The Stacked Outfield Heading into the offseason, the outfield picture looked a little shaky. Denard Span had missed a sizable chunk of the season due to a concussion, while Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer were both likely to depart in free agency. As it turns out, Span has been healthy this year and the Twins have found two other guys who figure to be entrenched for the next few years in Josh Willingham and Ben Revere. On top of that, Darin Mastroianni has emerged as a great asset as a fourth outfielder. With all these players under control through at least 2014, the Twins are set in the outfield for several years, and that's not even mentioning top prospects like Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia who are rapidly rising. We're looking at a potential embarrassment of riches in the not-too-distant future. That's much different than any kind of embarrassment we were talking about last year. 4. Scott Diamond In a season where so much as gone wrong with the starting staff, it's easy to overlook just how impressive Diamond has been. Despite one of the league's worst strikeout rates, he continues to turn in strong outing after strong outing and he's not really slowing down – he'd notched five consecutive quality starts before being ejected in Texas last week, though he experienced another hiccup against the M's on Tuesday. I'll admit I'm somewhat skeptical that the lefty can maintain his minuscule walk rate going forward, but he's definitely a strike-thrower and his 55.3 percent grounder rate – seventh-highest in the majors – is no fluke. It's a good recipe for success even without the strikeouts; a recipe that should make Diamond a quality, inexpensive mid-rotation piece for many years. 5. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton Building a bullpen from the ground up can be a challenge, as the Twins learned last year. Building a bullpen around a couple of established, reliable late-inning arms is a different story, which is why it's hugely encouraging that Perkins has maintained – and perhaps even elevated – his brilliance from last year while Burton has emerged as an excellent righty setup man. These two look like a solid back-end core for Terry Ryan to build around, negating the need to overspend on an established "closer" while focusing on identifying hidden gems like Burton. 6. Trevor Plouffe Plenty of people are getting down on Plouffe now that he's slumping badly since coming off the disabled list, but I'm pretty bullish on him at this point. He's probably not the elite slugger that he resembled earlier this summer, but the comparisons to Danny Valencia are premature and misguided. Plouffe's offensive outburst was not totally isolated – he's been building up to this point for several years, showing steady improvement in the minors and majors as he's inched toward his physical prime. Now, at age 26, Plouffe is entering that prime and regardless of his current cold spell he looks like a player who can respectably hold down the hot corner for several years. The Twins have been in desperate need of such a player for a long time. Click here to view the article

* The Twins made their final round of cuts yesterday, sending Brian Dozier, J.R. Towles, Casey Fien and Brian Dinkelman to Rochester. With that, the season-opening 25-man roster has come into clear focus; it will include four starters, eight relievers and – surprisingly – only two catchers. Drew Butera and J.R. Towles appeared to be battling for the third catcher job, but both will open the campaign in Triple-A, meaning that Ron Gardenhire will have Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit as his sole catching options. There's a measure of risk here but I think it's the right choice. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Mauer and Doumit have both been injured often throughout their careers. If one goes down and lands on the disabled list, the Twins can easily have Butera or Towles up the next day; but, should one suffer a minor injury, it could leave Gardenhire without a backup for a few few days and eliminate Doumit's valuable flexibility. In the long run, I believe the risk here is healthily outweighed by the benefit of having a useful player on the bench rather than a no-hit third catcher, but this certainly seems like an instance in which Gardy is going outside of his comfort zone. Then again, the organization as a whole has shown willingness to shy away from comfort zones this spring (the early demotion of Tsuyoshi Nishioka standing out as a prime example) and given where the Twins are coming from I think that's appropriate. * Download attachment: dozier.jpg Dozier stuck around long enough to get a good look from the coaching staff but there was no way he was going to make the team out of spring training, barring an injury to Alexi Casilla or Jamey Carroll. While Gardenhire is clearly enamored with the 24-year-old shortstop, who hit .277/.333/.511 in spring training after a strong minor-league season in 2011, Dozier still hasn't played above Double-A and isn't viewed from outside as a top-notch prospect. If Dozier is truly ready to play in the bigs, as he claims, he can go prove it in Rochester while the Twins see what they have in Carroll and Casilla. Meanwhile, Terry Ryan is smartly downplaying the hype, saying "there is some work to be done." Amen. That's the kind of insightful, forthright quote that we never got from Bill Smith. And Ryan is wise to temper expectations a bit, what with the manager glowing about Dozier and one local scribe hailing him as "the next big thing for the Twins." * Of course, while Ryan is cautioning not to put too much stock into spring training performance, the Twins have also apparently elected to roll with Chris Parmelee as their Opening Day first baseman on the basis of a strong showing over the past month. Parmelee has hit five homers in exhibition play and also went deep 12 times in the second half last year between Double-A and the majors. If that power is legit and he continues to show good plate discipline, he's got a chance to be a solid contributor, but slow-footed first basemen need to hit and the Twins are taking a leap of faith by letting the 24-year-old bypass Triple-A despite a .416 slugging percentage in 253 games at Double-A. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: strike-out1.jpg The true importance of the strikeout is a subject of much debate in baseball circles. It is generally agreed, though, that the K is a powerful weapon for pitchers, one with strengths (it's the most reliable method of recording an out) and weaknesses (pitching for strikeouts requires more pitches and taxes the arm). Dennis Brackin wrote a great piece for the Star Tribune last week on the subject of pitching to contact, which is a philosophy that the Twins have notoriously espoused. Brackin's article sought to clarify some misconceptions about the phrase. Most notably, that coaches are actively encouraging pitchers not to strike anyone out. A severe strikeout deficiency is currently the greatest downfall for Minnesota's pitching staff, but it's not the coaching approach that is at issue. It's the personnel. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For whatever reason, the Twins have strayed away more and more from stocking the roster with strikeout pitchers in recent years. Maybe because it's cheaper, or maybe because the organization lacks the scouting chops to find quality power arms. In any case, the amount of contact that Twins pitchers are now allowing makes it nearly impossible to succeed. The chart below, which I put together as part of the Twins scorecard content for next week's series against the Indians (only $1 at the stadium!) paints a picture of how Twins pitching staffs have evolved over the years from a K-rate perspective, and how their results have been impacted: [TABLE] Year ERA (AL Rank) K/9 (AL Rank) 2002 4.12 (6th) 6.6 (5th) 2003 4.41 (7th) 6.1 (9th) 2004 4.03 (1st) 6.8 (3rd) 2005 3.71 (5th) 5.9 (10th) 2006 3.95 (2nd) 7.3 (1st) 2007 4.15 (5th) 6.9 (4th) 2008 4.17 (7th) 6.1 (12th) 2009 4.50 (11th) 6.5 (10th) 2010 3.95 (5th) 6.5 (10th) 2011 4.58 (13th) 6.0 (14th) 2012 5.69 (14th) 5.3 (14th) [/TABLE] As you can see, the Twins weren't always a contact-heavy staff. In fact, back in 2006 they led the league in whiffs per nine innings, and ranked second in ERA. Back then, Johan Santana was leading the rotation and Joe Nathan the bullpen. Now, Carl Pavano is the No. 1 starter and Matt Capps the closer. Those two set the tone for a staff that pitches to contact at an outrageously extreme rate. Since the start of last year, Pavano has struck out a lower percentage of hitters (10.9%) than any starting pitcher in baseball other than Jamie Moyer, who is 49, and Brad Penny, who was just released by a Japanese team. Meanwhile, Capps has struck out a lower percentage (12.4%) than any reliever other than Aaron Laffey and Erasmo Ramirez, both of whom are presently in Triple-A. The major leagues as a whole are averaging 7.3 K/9 this year. Excluding Scott Diamond, who's pitched once, the Twins currently have two pitchers on their entire staff with a K-rate above that mark: Glen Perkins and Jared Burton. As a team, Minnesota is averaging 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings; if that were to hold, it would be the lowest figure for an MLB club since the 2003 Tigers averaged 4.8. That team also lost 119 games. (Incidentally, the Twins are currently on pace to lose 117). As a general philosophy, telling hurlers to pitch to contact -- as in, trust your stuff and don't be afraid to throw in the zone early in the count -- isn't so bad. It's been Rick Anderson's calling card for many years. But at this point, the Twins have completely abandoned the punch-out. There are basically no starting pitchers in the entire organization who excel at missing bats. That needs to change. When you allow as much contact as this team currently is, you're going to struggle to limit hits and runs regardless of how good your defense is. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: greinke.jpg The World Series is almost underway, which means that the official start of the offseason is rapidly approaching. When the free agent market opens up, one of the central figures will be Zack Greinke, who is the clear top dog in a deep pitching pack. The former Cy Young winner offers ace-level ability, youth and a durable track record. Sure, there are a few question marks surrounding the right-hander, who turns 29 this weekend. He's had some anxiety issues in the past, and his ERA in three seasons since winning the Cy Young with Kansas City is a somewhat pedestrian 3.83. Nevertheless, compared to this year's other big free agent prize, Josh Hamilton, Greinke looks like a perfectly safe bet. Many believe he'll get a nine-figure deal at a time where spending is ramping up and many clubs are looking for pitching help. As a team that needs pitching more desperately than perhaps any other, could the Twins be a player for Greinke? It certainly wouldn't be in their nature to bid on a top free agent pitcher, but things have changed (you'd hope) in the Target Field era and this franchise could use a jolt to re-energize the fan base. Given the lack of high-end pitching in the pipeline, securing an arm like Greinke for the next five or six years would make a whole lot of sense. It's difficult to envision Terry Ryan entering a bidding war against heavyweight suitors like the Angels and Rangers, but in a recent interview with ESPN 1500 he at least left open the possibility: The last part of that quote seemingly rules out the possibility of a mega-contract for someone like Greinke. Then again, if the club was internally mulling that type of investment, you would hardly expect them to shout it out and alert the rest of the league to their intentions. More than most top-tier free agent pitchers, Greinke seems like a fit with Minnesota. He shies away from the bright spotlight more than your typical star player, and has spent nearly his entire career pitching in the Midwest. He's a quiet, cerebral guy that consistently throws strikes. This isn't a CC Sabathia or Cliff Lee, and he probably won't get paid like one, which could improve the chances for a club like the Twins. Of course, there are going to be a lot of teams making their pitch to Greinke this winter. Getting in that mix would not only be uncharacteristic for the Twins, it would be unprecedented. But, when you get down to it, they do have the money to make this type of splash if they really wanted to, especially when you consider that Justin Morneau's $14 million will come off the books in a year and revenue would likely rebound substantially with a star like Greinke brought aboard. Would they actually be willing to stray so far from their comfort zone and saddle themselves with another huge contract alongside Mauer's for the better part of the next decade? Difficult to fathom, but who knows. At some point, they need to stop operating like a small-market team. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: gardenhire.jpg In their second-to-last game of 2012, the Twins sent Anthony Swarzak to the hill. He turned in a sub par five-inning outing, and the Twins ended up losing by a run, their 95th loss of the season. A pitcher who had no business starting a major-league game getting roughed up and putting his capable offense in a hole they couldn't dig out of. Minnesota's 2012 season in a nutshell. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, the above isn't intended as a slight toward Swarzak, whose overall campaign was hardly a disaster. When used in the long relief role, he was perfectly adequate, turning in a 4.05 ERA in 73 1/3 innings out of the bullpen and often effectively bridging the gap after short starts, which were depressingly frequent. Swarzak was one of many hurlers who were successful when used in the proper role, which is one of the bigger positive takeaways for the pitching staff this year. Guys like Sam Deduno and Cole DeVries put forth efforts that would have been exemplary for a spot starter, but both were somewhat stretched when forced into more than a dozen games. Brian Duensing was outstanding as a reliever and horrible as a starter. Liam Hendriks dominated the minors but looked overmatched in the majors while the Twins had little choice but to keep trotting him out. We'd probably view most of these pitchers differently if they hadn't been pressed so far beyond their expected roles. And of course, this was the result of what was without question the most notable development of the season: The five starters that the Twins expected to comprise their rotation at the beginning of the year (Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis) combined to make a total of 54 starts. There were many factors contributing to the entire preseason rotation being out of the picture by the end of July, and you could argue that many of them were foreseeable. Still, the Twins flipped tails five times with their five starters and when you have that kind of extraordinarily bad luck, you're bound to have a tough time competing, especially when you don't have much starting pitching depth to begin with. Many things went wrong for the Twins, but it basically all comes back to starting pitching. Rarely has the culprit for a completely derailed season been so blatantly clear. That's a shame, as it covers up the assorted successes surrounding the relief corps and the offense. In the bullpen, Glen Perkins backed up a breakout 2011 campaign with an even better season in which he handled everything thrown his way, taking over the closer role without a hitch after Matt Capps went down. Jared Burton and Casey Fien emerged as legitimate cogs, while Duensing remains one of the league's better lefty specialists. That's a solid, inexpensive core to build around. In the lineup, the Twins stayed shockingly healthy all year. In 2011, only two players on the entire team (Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia) were able to amass 500 plate appearances; this year seven players topped that mark. From the point that the Twins finally settled on Ben Revere as the right fielder after cycling through several uninspiring options early on, the starting nine remained impressively stable throughout the summer (with the characteristic exception of the middle infield spots). Not only were they healthier around the field, they were far more productive. The Twins went from having the second-worst OPS in the AL in 2011 (.666) to ranking ninth at .717 this year. They remained light on power, as they'll finish among the bottom three teams in slugging and homers, but they rank fifth in on-base percentage and are tied for first in stolen bases, which is more their traditional recipe for success anyway. On Wednesday night the Twins will wrap up this 2012 season, and they might finish with only three fewer losses than they had last year. That's fairly discouraging, but for those who followed the club, there's just no way to come away with the same sense of all-encompassing ineptitude and frustration. This team's failures started and ended with a rotation that was grossly unequipped for the plights that would befall it over the course of the summer. Does that make 95 losses easier to swallow? I guess, for me, it does. Mistakes were made and there's obviously work to be done, but I feel a whole lot better about this organization's outlook going forward than I did a year ago, even if the improvement in the W/L column was negligible. Click here to view the article

In 2013, the Oakland Athletics averaged 9.7 runs per game in their seven tilts against the Twins, and 4.5 runs per game against all other opponents. Oakland's reign of terror against the team that ruined its happy ending in Moneyball continued this week, as the A's thoroughly dismantled Minnesota in a rather sparsely attended home-opening sweep. After investing $84 million into the rotation during the offseason, the Twins have received painfully similar results from their starting pitchers.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The first series at Target Field was all too familiar: three games in which the starters dug an early hole and the offense couldn't dig out. In total, the Twins have gotten one quality start from their rotation in nine games during a 3-6 start. They are getting blasted. Meanwhile, their best starter from 2013 sits in the bullpen waiting to mop up the messes that have been created. Download attachment: Deduno1.jpg The decision to move Samuel Deduno into a relief role seemed strange at the end of camp and seems stranger now. He's certainly among the top five pitchers on the club in terms of stuff, and he's been on a heck of a run the last couple years, but he's being forced to sit around in the bullpen while the Twins' signature brand of bat-seeking two-seamers gets plastered all about the yard. Deduno as a reliever just doesn't look like a fit. He's pitching in a role where the situations are often close and late, and every mistake is magnified. Case in point: in his first appearance of the season, Deduno entered in the 11th inning of a 6-6 game. He put a couple runners on base and then ended up letting the winning score in on a wild pitch. In one of the games against Oakland, he turned a three-run deficit into a four-run deficit by balking in a run. Even Deduno's fiercest proponents (I consider myself one of them) would not deny that he is erratic and mistake-prone. He's a wild card on the mound. When given six innings, he can make up for his missteps by baffling the majority of opposing hitters. But he's not a guy you want to be bringing into a one-run game with runners on base. So the assignment seems forced. To his credit, the miscast mop-up man has performed well overall; after tossing three scoreless innings in relief of Mike Pelfrey Thursday, Deduno owns a 3.00 ERA with nine strikeouts in eight innings. But he's not in the proper role and he's being set aside for some guys who are not getting the job done. I have no illusions that the Twins are going to be a playoff team this year, but I think I speak for every fan out there when I say that the type of games witnessed at Target Field this week are quickly going to drain my interest. There should be little patience for these shoddy performances. Kevin Correia's leash ought to be exceedingly short. He's not in the future plans and he's not very good right now. I have more faith in Mike Pelfrey and Phil Hughes, and both are signed beyond this year, but if their results don't improve the Twins shouldn't hesitate to swap one with Deduno and put it on their shoulders to force their way back into the rotation. After all, Deduno is the only one who has really earned anything. He had a 3.83 ERA last year. He was the team's only good starter. What's going on here, anyway? In a lot of respects, I have a hard time getting worked up about the Twins' bad start, mostly because my expectations were quite low to begin with. But some of the decisions that have led them to where they're at are hard to stomach. They're starting Chris Herrmann and Darin Mastroianni in right field within the first 10 days of the season because they waived their only credible fourth outfielder in order to keep Jason Bartlett. Their best starting pitcher from last year is relegated to a mismatched relief role despite out-pitching everyone else in spring training. I want to believe in this regime. There have been signs that things are heading in a better direction. But what I'm seeing so far has me both scratching and shaking my head. Click here to view the article