Nick Nelson

Download attachment: Sabathia_600-321.jpg Each year in our Offseason Handbook, we put together a list of all the upcoming free agents at every position. Beyond the write-ups and statistical breakdowns for each player, we estimate the contract we expect them to get, so that armchair GMs can fit prospective acquisitions into their budgets. This is an aspect of the publication that we take very seriously. In fact, every year, we set aside a day for the entire editorial staff to get together and reach a consensus on each what each free agent might get. This process takes several hours and invariably leads to numerous fisticuffs, but the end result is a fair measure of accuracy.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] We feel that giving readers a reasonable idea of what each free agent will command is a cool feature of the product, and so we want to get as close as we can. Given the Twins' current needs, the starting pitcher free agent section is inevitably going to be one of the most important in this year's Handbook. So I thought today I would take a look back at last year's edition and review our contract estimates for starters compared to the actual contracts that those pitchers ultimately received. We certainly weren't always perfect, but in the instances where we missed, perhaps there's a lesson to be learned that can carry over to this year's crop. CC Sabathia Estimated Contract: 5 years, $130M Actual Contract: 5 years, $122M Notes: Sabathia's last contract ran through 2015, but it was widely expected that he would opt out and try to get more money out of the Yankees. He did just that, and we were pretty close on what the two sides ended up agreeing upon. CJ Wilson Estimated Contract: 5 years, $85M Actual Contract: 5 years, $77.5M Notes: We were pretty close on this one as well. The 31-year-old Wilson signed a five-year deal with the Angels for slightly less than we guessed. Edwin Jackson Estimated Contract: 3 years, $33M Actual Contract: 1 year, $11M Notes: We had the annual salary correct, but we didn't expect that Jackson would end up settling for a one-year deal. He probably could've gotten a multi-year contract but ended up signing with the Nats, hoping to pump up his value for the following offseason. I'd say that worked out well for him. He may get that $33 million contract this winter. Mark Buehrle Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30M Actual Contract: 4 years, $58M Notes: Apparently, we grossly underestimated Buehrle's market value. Despite the fact that he was about to turn 33 years old, the Marlins gave him a four-year deal. It's not clear that decision will ultimately work out well, but he was very Buehrle-like in the first year, posting a 3.74 ERA over 202 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma Estimated Contract: 3 years, $25M Actual Contract: 1 year, $1.5M Notes: We just sort of misread this situation. In the 2010-2011 offseason, the Athletics won the bidding on the Japenese hurler with a $19 million posting fee but Iwakuma ultimately decided to return to Japan after the two sides couldn't agree on a contract. We figured it would take a substantial chunk of change to land him one offseason later, but as it turned out the Mariners landed him on the open market for a huge bargain and he made good with a 3.16 ERA. Still only 31 years old, he may land that three-year deal this time around, and the Twins – who reportedly finished runner-up to the A's in the posting system two years ago – could be a player for him. Roy Oswalt Estimated Contract: 2 years, $22M Actual Contract: 1 year, $5M Notes: There was a fair amount of interest in Oswalt last offseason, but rather than signing with a club, he semi-retired, only to sign with the Rangers in late May on a pro-rated $5 million deal. It didn't work out well, as he pitched poorly and ended up getting demoted to the bullpen. Aaron Harang Estimated Contract: 2 years, $15M Actual Contract: 2 years, $12M Notes: We were pretty close on this one, as well as the next three. Hiroki Kuroda Estimated Contract: 1 year, $11M Actual Contract: 1 year, $10M Bruce Chen Estimated Contract: 2 years, $10M Actual Contract: 2 years, $9M Paul Maholm Estimated Contract: 1 year, $4M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4.75M Notes: This deal worked out brilliantly. Not only because Maholm pitched extremely well for a modest fee, but also because they included a team option for $6.5 million, so the Braves will be able to bring him back at a reasonable price next year. This is the kind of contract the Twins should be looking to ink. Joel Pineiro Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: Minor-league deal Notes: Even though he struggled in 2011, we figured that Pineiro would be able to land a guaranteed major-league deal given that he'd turned in a 3.66 ERA over 366 innings the prior two seasons. Injury issues robbed him of that chance and he ended up pitching 24 innings in the minors for the Orioles. Jason Marquis Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $3M Notes: Based on our estimate, the Twins got a bargain! Yay. Freddy Garcia Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M Brad Penny Estimated Contract: 1 year, $2.5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M in Japan Notes: Weird case. Penny followed the money to Japan but was apparently miserable, as he was granted his release from the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks after one start. He returned to the States and made 22 appearances for the Giants but pitched horribly. Interested in seeing our estimates for this year's robust free agent starting pitching class? Pre-order your copy of the Offseason Handbook today and save 30 percent! Click here to view the article

In his efforts to augment a bullpen that last year ranked last in the league in ERA, FIP and WHIP, Terry Ryan's moves essentially amounted to re-signing Matt Capps and adding Joel Zumaya to replace the departed Joe Nathan. That was hardly a recipe for guaranteed substantial improvement, and now with Zumaya's unfortunate yet unsurprising injury news, Ryan's passive approach to addressing this unit in a buyer's market looks all the more irresponsible. With their sole bullpen pickup gone for the year, the Twins may react by trying to find another outside arm they can plug in. They'll now only have to pay Zumaya $400K, and his contract included incentives that escalated to $1.7M, so you'd have to figure they have $1.3M left in the budget to spend on a replacement. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That amount would have been plenty to sign a reliable relief guy such as Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey earlier in the offseason, but unfortunately all those hurlers are now off the board. The free agent market is exceedingly thin at this point, whittled down to such names as Michael Wuertz and Danys Baez – neither of whom have been effective since 2009. A trade would appear to be the more palatable solution. There are some interesting players who might be available, the most notable of them being Koji Uehara of the Rangers. Owner of a 2.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 140-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two seasons, Uehara is an elite right-handed reliever and Texas has been dangling him all winter. The problem is that he's set to earn $4 million this year, and it's hard to believe the Twins would stretch their budget that far given their reluctance to spend even a million on an additional arm to supplement the Zumaya signing. Then again, maybe this is the moment where the Twins finally put their money where their mouth is. They've claimed that they're serious about contending. They've claimed that there's wiggle room in their reduced budget, and that ownership is willing to add payroll over the course of the season. Well, then do it. Make a move and get a dependable right-handed arm for this bullpen, because right now it's tough to identify a single one. The time has come for Ryan to shed his past conservative tendencies and take an aggressive step aimed at putting his club in position for success. If he heads into the season with this current hodgepodge of bullpen question marks, and an inability to hold leads proves to be a crippling downfall for the Twins, all the good things Ryan has done during the offseason will be overshadowed by his baffling inactivity on the relief market. That would be a shame. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: melkycabrera.jpg The free agent market has been slow to develop early in the offseason, with very few high-profile signings in the books as Thanksgiving approaches. Things should start kicking into gear now that the Winter Meetings are just two weeks away, but it's worth wondering whether the first few contracts are indicators of how the offseason climate will shape up once the dominos really begin to fall. When the Cubs lured Scott Baker away from the Twins earlier in the month, many were surprised that it took $5.5 million in guaranteed money to do so. That's just more than you typically see going to a mostly unproven player coming off major surgery. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The baseball world did another double-take last week when Melky Cabrera signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Jays. The outfielder's performance over the past couple seasons has justified that type of payday and then some, but is tainted by a 50-game PED suspension. Two guys with sizable question marks getting big guaranteed money. At that rate, just imagine what will happen when the established, healthy and relatively spot-free free agents begin to sign. Now, by nature, contracts signed in November tend to come out higher than expected. The players who sign early are generally coveted by particular clubs that will put forth an "offer they can't refuse" to finish the deal. That might be what we're seeing here. Then again, this also might be a sign that money will be flowing freely this winter. Every MLB club is in line to receive a major revenue boost in a year when new TV deals with Fox and Turner Sports kick in. Factor in other streams and basic inflation, and we could be looking at an overall market shift toward higher spending. If that's the case, the $20 million that we expect the Twins to have in the coffers might not go as far as we'd hoped. But we won't be able to make that assumption until a few more contracts are inked and we have a more representative sample to consider. At the end of the day, it might just turn out that the Cubs and Jays were very eager to make a splash. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Target Field.jpg On September 28th of last year, Carl Pavano tossed a five-hit shutout at Target Field, leading the Twins to a 1-0 victory over the Royals. It was the final game of the 2011 season, and its only significance was keeping the Twins from reaching 100 losses – a deflating milestone even if it's virtually no different from 99. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On Friday, Pavano will again be on the mound, this time looking to kick off the 2012 Redemption Tour. Returning after the worst season in the past three decades of the franchise, these Twins have much to prove to a disgruntled fan base. In Year Three at Target Field with a payroll that hovers near nine digits, they'll receive plenty of scrutiny and little patience. Rightfully so. For the Twins to reverse course so drastically that they actually contend for a playoff spot – which may require a 30-game swing in win/loss record – might be too much to ask. But fans will be looking for clear signs of improvement across the board, be it on-field play, off-field accountability or organizational direction. One year after derailing completely, the Twins don't need to pull into the station. They do need to demonstrate that they're back on the right track. Terry Ryan, who took over as general manager in November after Bill Smith's abrupt dismissal, executed a sound offseason plan that altered the state of the roster rather dramatically. In the largest exodus of franchise mainstays since Ryan first resigned back in 2007, the team said goodbye to Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan, all of whom inked lucrative contracts elsewhere as free agents. In signing Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll, Ryan Doumit and others over the winter, Ryan's objectives were threefold: replacing the departed players, addressing areas of weakness and creating the type of depth and flexibility absent from last year's roster. If I had one overarching frustration with Smith's strategy last offseason, it was the lack of proactive planning. The 2010 season was a very successful one for the Twins, but it also created a number of ongoing health concerns, and the former GM left the roster woefully unequipped for the avalanche of injuries that was to come. Granted, the Twins stood no chance last summer one way or the other with the endless barrage of bad breaks they endured, and the same would be true this time around. But Ryan has installed legitimate contingency plans, with a number of different moving parts and bench players actually capable of stepping up to make an impact. As long as the injury bug doesn't bite hard again, the lineup should be decent at worst, with the potential to be quite good if, say, Justin Morneau's late spring performance is a sign of things to come or Chris Parmelee is for real. With that said, this offense isn't going to be confused with the Yankees. If the Twins are to stay afloat in the AL Central, they're going to need quality pitching, which was in short supply last year. It's here that my optimism fades somewhat. If all goes well with the starters – Francisco Liriano commands his fastball, Scott Baker's elbow doesn't blow up, Carl Pavano craftily succeeds, Nick Blackburn returns to 2008/09 form and Jason Marquis throws strikes – the rotation could be an asset. But, so rarely does all go well. Whereas the lineup has suitable depth, it's not clear that the Twins will be prepared to adequately replace multiple starters if that need arises. And then there's the bullpen. Ryan took an incredibly passive approach to addressing this unit during the offseason, cobbling together a group of minor-league journeymen, failed starters and reclamation projects. Matt Capps, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, who have had two good seasons between the three of them since 2008, are hardly guaranteed to be a lockdown trio at the back end, and the rungs get shakier as you make your way down the bullpen ladder. Ron Gardenhire will need to determine a hierarchy on the fly, since few of these pitchers have been able to establish consistent roles on a big-league staff. The approach of throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall to see what sticks didn't work as a bullpen solution last year but maybe the results will be better with a true talent evaluator in charge. I'd like to think that the Twins could sport a respectable rotation with a relief corps that consistently holds leads, but in order for that to happen they'll need a lot to go right and very little to go wrong. Maybe I'm too jaded by last year, but I can't see it. I see a staff that allows a ton of contact and probably ranks among the league leaders in hits allowed because the defense still isn't very good. I see a lineup that, while vastly improved, remains several notches behind the true AL powerhouses like New York, Boston, Texas and Detroit. I also see big bounce-back years for several players, including the restoration of Joe Mauer's pristine reputation. And thanks to a weak division, I see a finish around the .500 mark, which would count as a sizable step in the right direction and might keep things interesting into August and even September. Click here to view the article

The Big Picture The Jays currently find themselves in a familiar situation, enjoying a good season but struggling to gain traction in a treacherous division. Toronto's 38-36 record would have them a game back in the AL Central, but the team sits last in the East, trailing the red-hot Yankees by 7.5 games. That's right, the Blue Jays – with a record two games over .500 – are only one game closer to first than the Twins, who hold the American League's worst record. Yep, life in the AL East is tough. Download attachment: lind.jpg Of course, this has always been Toronto's plight, and it's not likely to change any time soon. At some point, they need to make an aggressive push to overcome their daunting divisional rivals, and with the strong roster they have assembled, now seems like as good a time as any. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They Will Trade With the Twins Let's be honest: The Blue Jays' biggest need is pitching. If they want to add to their offensive strength, however, there's one name that sticks out as a natural fit, and that's Justin Morneau. He's Canadian, his prodigious power would play well in Toronto's hitter-friendly stadium and Toronto is hurting at first base. Adam Lind, a former top prospect whose lack of progress in the majors is alarming given that he's now 28, was outrighted to the minors at the end of May with a .185/.271/.311 hitting line and went unclaimed on waivers. He crushed in Triple-A and was recalled this week, but the organization can't be feeling a ton of confidence in him. They are, of course, well aware of the lingering issues Morneau has experienced from a concussion he suffered in their ballpark, not to mention his pesky wrist problems, and they have to be put off by his struggles against lefties. But a recent report stated that the club is "very interested" in Minnesota's first baseman. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Let's be honest: The Blue Jays' biggest need is pitching. Toronto ranks third in the AL in runs scored, second in homers and fourth in OPS. Conversely, they rank 10th in ERA, 11th in WHIP and dead last in K/BB ratio. To make a dent in their offense-heavy division, they need to add some impact arms. Savvy GM Alex Anthopoulos isn't likely be enticed by names such as Carl Pavano or Nick Blackburn, so Terry Ryan's best hope for a match might be Francisco Liriano continuing his dominant run into July or Matt Capps returning with a vengeance. The Jays' rotation has been depleted by injuries and they would love a front line caliber starter to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow; meanwhile their closer situation is iffy given that they had to replace ineffective veteran Francisco Cordero with Casey Janssen about a month into the season and Sergio Santos has been hurt. The problem isn't that the Twins don't have arms that could entice Toronto, it's that the Blue Jays aren't likely to part with quality pitching in a trade and that's surely what the Twins will be seeking. Intriguing options like Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison are mired on the DL for the foreseeable future. Conclusion The Blue Jays have needs that the Twins can address, especially if Liriano and Capps can improve their stock in the coming weeks while the Twins' slim chances of contending fade further. Can Anthopoulos offer up a package that will address Minnesota's long-term needs, though? It's worth noting that there's a history of deadline dealing between the two clubs, though it was nearly a decade ago that Bobby Kielty and Shannon Stewart were swapped. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Jake Marisnick - OF Top prospect Anthony Gose, currently 21 and hitting well at Triple-A, might not be attainable, but his presence in Toronto's system creates some redundancy with Marisnick, another 21-year-old who is currently in High-A and possesses a nice power/speed combo. The Twins have a number of outfield prospects but Marisnick is a notch better than most and would provide more flexibility to trade from an area of depth. Noah Syndergaard - RHP A big 6'5" starter drafted as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010, Syndergaard has a highly acclaimed fastball and it's helped him rack up 64 strikeouts (with only 15 walks) in 48 2/3 innings for Low-A Lansing this year. He's only 19, but offers more upside than perhaps any starter in Minnesota's system. Justin Nicolino - LHP If the Twins fancy a left-hander, Nicolino may catch their eye. He was selected one round after Syndergaard and he's had similarly strong results as a pro, going 9-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 128-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 118 innings between this season and last. Either young hurler would would be tough to pry away, but would be a worthy prize. Joel Carreno - RHP The pitching prospects mentioned above are both fairly far from the majors, but if the Twins are looking for a more immediate impact they could take a look at Carreno. He's 25 and he's already got some big-league experience, having made a handful of MLB appearances both last year and this year. He's struggled quite a bit with Toronto this year and he's 25, but those factors may increase Toronto's willingness to move him and there remains plenty of upside in his arm. In the minors, he has piled up 690 strikeouts in 647 innings. Carlos Perez - C Travis d'Arnaud is Toronto's best prospect and won't be touched, but the Twins may have a shot at another young backstop. Perez, 21, is thought to have the defensive skills to play catcher in the majors, and he's displayed solid power and plate discipline this year in the Midwest League. The righty swinger would give the Twins another option to eventually replace, or at least caddy with, Joe Mauer behind the plate. Please add your thoughts and trade ideas (and other names the Twins could pursue) in the comments below! Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aaron-hicks.jpg Likely Starter: Aaron Hicks 2012 Stats (AA): .286/.384/.460, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 100 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Joe Benson Those who were eager to see an intense and compelling spring competition for the starting center field job have surely been disappointed. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Aaron Hicks was the front-runner before camp got underway and then took firm hold of the job with his truly stellar exhibition performance. Joe Benson was demoted to the minors after struggling, and Darin Mastroianni has played well but has missed time. On Sunday, Ron Gardenhire made official what was already apparent: Hicks is going to be his center fielder and leadoff man on Opening Day. This brings a mix of excitement and uncertainty, with no shortage of either. Hicks is coming off an excellent season in Double-A, but he hasn't taken a single regular-season at-bat above that level, and hasn't always been a dominant offensive player in the minors. At various times, the switch hitter has been overly strikeout prone, has struggled to produce from the left side of the plate, and has been baffled by the adjustments of opposing pitchers. Those are real concerns when we're talking about a 23-year-old who's going to be thrown directly into the fire. But through all his ups and downs, Hicks has always exhibited a keenly discerning eye at the plate, along with terrific defense in center field. Those traits have been on display this month in Florida, and when you get past the (possibly fluky) power display and the general buzz surrounding him, they're likely the biggest factors in the club's willingness to have him bypass Triple-A and begin accruing MLB service time immediately. The wisdom of that decision can be questioned, but here's the bottom line: If Hicks struggles in his transition to the majors, he'll be sent to Triple-A knowing specifically what he needs to work on. At that point Mastroianni can ably take over and Hicks' service clock will pause, nullifying the entire concern. If Hicks doesn't get sent down at any point, it'll mean he's figuring things out and we'll probably all be too pleased to fret about manageable long-term ramifications. While Hicks has wrangled in the majority of attention this spring, Mastroianni has done nothing to play his way out of the conversation. The speedster is batting .364 and is 7-for-8 on stolen base attempts. His penchants for getting on base and creating terror once there have made him a scrappy asset, and with his defensive versatility he's an ideal fit as a fourth outfielder. The Twins seem aware of that, and they're content to keep him in that role while Hicks takes the spotlight. The progress of the rising young center fielder will be a central storyline in Minneapolis this year, and a similar one will play out four hours south, where elite prospect Byron Buxton figures to line up in Cedar Rapids. It says an awful lot about the state of the position in this organization that the team can trade away two valuable MLB center fielders during an offseason, then immediately plug in a rookie who has a chance to be better than either, but who himself might just be keeping the spot warm for one of the game's most heralded prospects. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: baker.jpg It didn't come as a surprise that Scott Baker signed a contract just a couple weeks into this offseason. He's not the first recognizable pitcher to come off the board, as Bartolo Colon and Hisashi Iwakuma preceded him. Baker is, however, the first to land with a new team. And I think that does come as a surprise to a lot of people, given the Twins' well publicized efforts to bring him back. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Baker didn't spend much time testing the open market, as his new one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Cubs was announced Tuesday. Including an additional $1.5 million in incentives, it's undeniably a great deal for the 31-year-old right-hander, and one that the Twins were wise not to try and match (assuming he gave them the chance). Baker is a very good pitcher when healthy, but he's eclipsed 175 innings only once in his career and guaranteeing him $5.5 million in his first season back from major elbow surgery – despite a saturated pitching market – seems crazy to me. The Cubs didn't even mitigate their risk by including a team option that might get them a bargain in 2014. Many pitchers don't return to full strength until their second year back from Tommy John. It's natural to wonder what led the hurler to sign elsewhere so quickly. People will inevitably think back to the weird exchanges that took place between Baker and Twins coaches when he was complaining of elbow soreness back in the spring. Was there friction there? He certainly didn't move on to the Cubs because winning was his highest priority, so there's a temptation to ascribe motives. Why would he ditch the organization that raised him, even if an extra million or two was being offered by another club? To me, this is a case where Baker just wanted to do what was best for him, and it's hard to argue with his decision. He's already 31 and won't have many more chances for a big payday. So, coming off surgery, he jumps on the chance to earn a nice guaranteed sum throwing in the more pitcher-friendly National League for a season. He's not tied down past next year so he'll have a chance to hit the market again after hopefully proving that his surgery was a success. Good for him. Meanwhile, the Twins quickly lose out on one of their most accessible options and have to readjust their plans after probably expecting they'd be able to bring Baker back. Your move, TR. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: pelfrey.jpg With six innings of one-run ball against the Angels on Wednesday, Mike Pelfrey lowered his ERA to 5.15 ERA, the lowest it has been since April 9. During the first couple months of the season, Pelfrey was pretty clearly the worst starting pitcher in baseball, at least among those to hold onto their jobs. Not surprising in light of the fact that May 1st marked his one-year anniversary from Tommy John surgery. Looking at historical timelines for recovery from the notorious procedure, Pelfrey's initial struggles were to be expected. But his improvement since the start of June has been stark.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Don't take my word for it; check out the numbers side-by-side: [TABLE] [/TD][TD=align: center]April and May [TD=align: center]June and July[/TD] Games Started[TD=align: center]11[/TD] [TD=align: center]7[/TD] Quality Starts[TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]5[/TD] ERA[TD=align: center]6.66[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.35[/TD] K/BB[TD=align: center]26/19[/TD] [TD=align: center]29/9[/TD] Opp AVG/OBP/SLG[TD=align: center].332/.387/.521[/TD] [TD=align: center].263/.308/.363[/TD] [/TABLE] The contrast is remarkable. In April and May, Pelfrey was a hittable mess, almost incapable of getting through six innings. Since then, however, he's been extremely solid, completing six or more innings in all but one start (in which he went 5 2/3) and consistently giving his team a good chance to win. It seems safe to say that he's gotten over the hump. Unfortunately, the turnaround may have come too late to help the Twins. My expectation from the beginning was that Pelfrey would start slow and improve in the latter part of the season, but as a player on a one-year contract with a non-competitive team (in other words, a trade candidate), that's a problem because potential trade partners will assess his value based on his performance in the first half. Pelfrey is almost certainly among the commodities Terry Ryan is shopping with the deadline rapidly approaching, but will other teams focus on his steady performance these past couple months or his numbers for the season as a whole, like an ERA that ranks as the sixth-worst in the majors, or a strikeout rate that is fourth-worst? Because he missed time with an injury in late June, Pelfrey hasn't had quite enough time to rebuild his value and now he'll have just one more start before next Wednesday's trade deadline. It would seem that the market for him might not be especially hot, and for his part, Pelf says he would be "crushed" if he were to be dealt. So what's the alternative? Let him continue taking the mound every fifth day in August and September and then use his improved second half as grounds to score a healthy contract in free agency? Or should the Twins take a proactive approach and look to lock the veteran up with a contract extension before season's end? Back in May, that notion would have been laughable, but Pelfrey has undeniably been a high-quality fixture over the past two months and, in light of his circumstances, it's not hard to believe his transformation has been legitimate. He's still only 29 years old, and while he was by no means a dominant pitcher in New York prior to the elbow injury, he was a workhorse who occasionally produced stellar seasons. The Twins are trying to rebuild around youth, but the disheartening developments this year for Scott Diamond and Vance Worley have cast serious doubt on Minnesota's ability to piece together a workable rotation configured with internal parts. We all know the likelihood of Ryan fishing for impact arms in free agency. Of course, Pelfrey might be eager to play out the rest of the year and test the market, since he's never really had a chance to do so (last year was his first foray into free agency and obviously he had much going against him). Then again, if his numerous quotes about enjoying his time in Minnesota and really wanting to stay are to be believed, the righty might be open to agreeable terms. With the way the free agent pitching market has spiraled out of control in recent years, and with the uncertainty surrounding young hurlers that the Twins hoped might figure into their 2013 rotation (Diamond, Worley, Alex Meyer, Trevor May), if Pelfrey can be signed for anything resembling a discount, Ryan would probably be crazy not to do it. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mauer.jpg Earlier this week, Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press asked Terry Ryan whether the team's recent run of success has affected the way he's preparing for the offseason. "Regardless of what you look like right now, you still look at the club and figure out where you're headed and where you need to add," Ryan told Walters. "My focus and our focus will always be, as you go through a season, to look at what you've got and what you've got coming up." What the Twins have got and what they've got coming up are one in the same: bats.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Their lineup is looking strong, and everyone is locked in for next year and beyond. In the offings, you've got Chris Parmelee obliterating Triple-A, while Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia thrive in Double-A. Where they need to add, clearly, is pitching. Everyone agrees on that. Opinions differ on the scope of the project. Should they focus solely on adding young, high-upside arms, even if it means disassembling their current core and delaying their window of contention by a few years? Or should they try to keep this group largely intact, picking up pitchers wherever they can and hoping for some good things to happen in 2013? From my perspective, there are a number of ways to work toward putting a contending team on the field next year that don't jeopardize the organization's long-term outlook. And not doing so would be an injustice to the franchise's most valuable (and highly-paid) asset: Joe Mauer. You may have noticed that Mauer has been rather awesome this year in spite of the club's struggles. After a sluggish start, he's turned it on the summer months and is back to ranking among the elite in batting average and on-base percentage while logging significant time at catcher. The likelihood that Mauer keeps playing at this level diminishes a bit next year. And a little bit more the year after that. And so on. That's because he'll turn 30 next spring, and historically baseball players have often started to show decline as they age into their fourth decade of life. Particularly guys with substantial injury histories. The time to build a championship-caliber team around Mauer is now, while he remains in his physical "prime." As the years pass, it becomes more difficult to center plans around him, and as long as he's consuming close to a quarter of the payroll there's really no other choice. As the Twins ponder whether to take a long-term approach in putting a competitive product back on the field, what they need to ask themselves is whether biding their time and stocking the farm is worth wasting the best years of Mauer's career. Click here to view the article

So the Twins have a problem. For the first time since A.J. Pierzynski first established himself as a regular, the club lacks an entrenched stalwart behind the plate. As discussed earlier this week, the solution might be in-house, but that's far from guaranteed. The timing of the announcement regarding Joe Mauer's position switch at first struck me as odd. Just three weeks earlier Terry Ryan had stated that he was planning around Mauer being a full-time catcher, while also reinforcing the dubious notion that the choice was ultimately up to the player. Why change course so quickly? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As much as they tried to emphasize that the decision was in Mauer's hands, the Twins faced circumstances that forced a quickened verdict. His concussion symptoms had lingered into October, further cementing the reality that returning him to any sort of regular catching duty was an unacceptable risk. That the public announcement coincided so closely with the start of free agency is a sure sign that Ryan plans to actively seek a backstop on the open market. There's an interesting crop at the position this year, including numerous realistic targets for the Twins. Let's take a look at a few that stand out as likely suspects: The Reunion: A.J. Pierzynski Download attachment: pierzynski.jpg The Twins have apparently been feeling nostalgic of late; earlier this week, they signed Jason Bartlett to a minor-league contract. In that spirit, signing Pierzynski would be a logical progression. Whereas Mauer's plight is hardly unique for catchers past 30, Pierzynski has been an exception to the rule. He's a brat on the field, earning him scorn from many opposing (and especially former) fans, but Pierzynski has been crouching behind the plate regularly for 12 seasons -- never missing more than 34 games -- and has shown no signs of wear. In fact, he had a career year in 2012 at age 35 and blasted 17 homers in 2013. Pierzynski makes sense for many reasons. He's familiar, he's an experienced veteran who hits from Josmil Pinto's opposite side, and he won't require a long-term deal. He will, however, require a generous salary commitment, because while I'm sure the wave of boos raining down during every visit to Target Field have made his heart yearn for Minnesota, he's probably not too enthused about going from a team that made the playoffs to one that has lost 95 in three straight seasons. The Power Bat: Jarrod Saltalamacchia One of the main complaints about Mauer's move to first base is that, as a guy who has topped 13 homers just once in his career, he doesn't provide the pop you'd like to see at the position. This overstated issue could be offset by the addition of a legitimate home run threat behind the plate, and Saltalamacchia -- who has hit 55 homers with a .457 slugging percentage over the past three seasons -- definitely fits that bill. Coming off a career year for the World Champion Red Sox, the 28-year-old Salty is the second best offensive catcher on the market behind Brian McCann, and he figures to command a sizable sum. As such, it's hard to see the Twins ponying up unless they really lack confidence in Pinto. Nonetheless, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports that the club has expressed "preliminary interest" in the slugger. The Grizzled Vet: John Buck In my hypothetical offseason blueprint for the Handbook, Buck is the catcher I had the Twins signing. Not because he was my ideal choice, necessarily, but because he's a guy I could easily see the team pursuing, and it's a choice I could get on board with. Unlike Pierzynski or Saltalamacchia, Buck would not come aboard with the expectation of starting full-time. He's spent much of his career as a part-time player or backup, hitting .234/.301/.400. At 33, Buck has caught more than 1,000 MLB games and has a good defensive reputation. Although he's not a great hitter (.215 average and .661 OPS over the last three years) he does bring some power to the table. He has reached double digits in homers in four straight seasons. In short, Buck is a guy who would fit as a backup or -- in a short-term pinch -- as a starter. And he won't cost much. The Framer: Jose Molina Advanced statistics have lagged behind in terms of evaluating defense, and nowhere has that been more true than at catcher. Strides have been made in recent years, though, with one of the most notable being Mike Fast's study on pitch framing that assigned a concrete value to the aptitude of different catchers to strategically receive deliveries and help their pitchers get strike calls. At the top of the list: Jose Molina. Of course, Molina is also a terrible hitter, with a career OPS checking in at .627. Still, if Fast's research is to be believed, Molina's framing proficiency saves his team an average of 35 runs per 120 games played. That helps offset the lacking offense considerably. The Twins are probably less inclined than the forward-thinking Rays, who employed Molina in 2013, to lend credence to a Baseball Prospectus study. However, the ability to influence borderline pitches would have to appeal to a club that largely tends toward hurlers who live and die around the edges of the strike zone. Click here to view the article

Overcast skies in the morning gave way to a bright sun, and this Tuesday has turned into a beautiful one here in Ft. Myers, where the Twins are getting set to face off against the Rays in a couple hours. To tide you over until then, here are a few notes gathered from wandering around the complex this morning and afternoon:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: photo 1.jpg * Phil Hughes got his work in on the side fields earlier today, facing off against Orioles minor-leaguers under the watchful eye of his manager, who viewed the action from his perch on a tower that sits in the middle of the minor-league fields. It's difficult to judge the performance of a veteran big-leaguer facing minor-league hitters -- particularly the High-A bunch that Hughes was matching up against -- but the right-hander looked good. In six innings of work, he allowed only four hits, and two of those were ground ball singles. Hughes struck out seven, ringing up three hitters on called third strikes with the breaking ball. As Parker has pointed out, mastering that curve will be a major key for Hughes this season. Download attachment: hughes318.jpg * Vance Worley sat quietly at his clubhouse stall this afternoon while many of his teammates milled around, chatted and played cards. He starts tonight, and he knows it's a big one. In what is essentially a three-player race for the fifth rotation spot, Worley entered the spring third in line based on last year's results, and he remains there based on his results in Grapefruit League play. In eight innings spread across two starts, Worley has allowed nine earned runs on 11 hits (two homers) while walking three and striking out only four. It's widely believed that between Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Worley, two will make the club -- one as a starter and one as a reliever. Deduno has been extremely impressive this spring and Diamond was rock solid in his last outing. Time is running out for Worley to make up ground. He needs to show something tonight. * Pedro Florimon's official spring debut was delayed by last night's rainout, so he'll get his first chance tonight at Hammond. He's trying to hold off Eduardo Escobar, who has enjoyed a good spring and was spotted taking a lengthy session in the cage today, swinging extensively from both sides. Download attachment: escobarBP.jpg * Had a chance to chat with Glen Perkins, who's a lot of fun to talk ball with. We discussed his increasing K-rates, his new contract and the race for the final spot in the Twins rotation. He called out Kyle Gibson as a dark horse contender, adding that the young righty is "throwing great." Perkins is also looking forward to retiring as a Twin, though he joked that the team's success might dictate his career timeline. "If we aren't good by then," he said, referring to 2018 when his new extension expires, "I'll probably just quit." * Tune into the @TwinsDaily Twitter account for insights and observations from this evening's game. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: bonnes.jpg John Bonnes is a husband, dad and independent business systems analyst. He started TwinsGeek.com in January of 2002. In addition to his work with TwinsCentric, he is the owner of GameDay Program and Scorecard, which provides the content for the Minnesota Twins Official Scorecard. You can hear him as a guest of the Powertrip Morning show on KFAN 101.3 and on his Gleeman and the Geek podcast, or follow him on Twitter at @TwinsGeek. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

The last time I can remember the Twins making a "win now" move was prior to the 2011 season, when they re-signed Carl Pavano and Jim Thome in an effort to recapture the magic that led to 94 wins and a playoff berth in the first season at Target Field. You can argue that these weren't especially wise moves, but they were clearly aimed at a goal of short-term winning. Pavano, 35, was signed for two years and cost the Twins a potential draft pick. Thome, 40, was signed for one year. Things obviously fell apart during that season, and in the years since, while the Twins have made a lot of moves -- some of them very good moves -- I don't think any could be described as aggressive "win-now" maneuvers. Not until now. Download attachment: Kendrys-Morales.jpg Over the weekend, the Twins announced that they have signed Kendrys Morales for the remainder of the 2014 campaign, at a hefty prorated $12 million salary. That's a significant spend for a player whose sole purpose is to make this team better right now. What prompted this uncharacteristic shift in approach? In part, it might be frustration. The Twins have been waiting, and waiting, and waiting for their top prospects to progress through the minors and help propel the big-league club forward, only to be met with a seemingly endless string of setbacks. Miguel Sano's elbow, Byron Buxton's wrist, Eddie Rosario's suspension… they have all pushed the arrivals of potential difference-makers backward, leaving the team in perpetual limbo. And then there are the outside factors in play. You've got a manager and GM who are -- at least to some extent -- on the hot seat after three straight 90-loss seasons. You've got a ballpark with dwindling attendance numbers. And you've got a club with tons of extra money on hand after falling well short of its spending limit during the offseason. On top of all that, the Twins are in last place but only five games out of first, and closer than that to wild-card position. So as Terry Ryan aptly put it when discussing the Morales signing, "Why not us?" To be clear, Morales is not a slam-dunk signing nor a perfect fit. He hasn't played since September of 2013, and in the two seasons since his devastating leg injury with the Angels he has been a good but not spectacular hitter. He also has limited defensive versatility, so working him into the lineup around young guys who need to be playing, like Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia, will be a challenge. But the bottom line is that Morales is a massive upgrade over the guy he's replacing on the roster (Jason Kubel), and he's a bat that you can immediately slot into the middle of the lineup. This isn't a move that suddenly turns the Twins into a World Series contender, but it does significantly boost their chances of hanging around .500 and remaining relevant late into the season. Even more importantly, though, it indicates that the Twins are finally back in a mindset where they're focused on winning baseball games now, not next year or the year after. For fans who have endured some brutal results in recent years, that is a tremendously encouraging development. Click here to view the article

First, an announcement: Wednesday marks the two-year anniversary of Twins Daily's launch! It's been a heck of a ride thus far and we want to heartily thank everybody who has visited, contributed and helped turn this site into one of the premier destinations for Minnesota Twins coverage and discussion on the Web. Twins Daily's growth has created a lot of great opportunities over the past two years, and we're extremely excited about the way our spring training coverage will evolve this year. You all are going to love it. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Live From Florida... Download attachment: fridaygame.jpg Over the next two weeks, leading up to the official start of Grapefruit League play on February 28, we will be serving up tons of spring preview content, including projected rosters, analysis of various position battles and a deeper look at prospects to keep an eye on. Then, during the entire month of March, Twins Daily will be providing on-location coverage of workouts and games in Ft. Myers. John, Parker, Seth and myself will each spend a week down in Florida, so you'll be able to follow the action from different perspectives and tap into subtle storylines in camp that might be overlooked by the space-restricted mainstream media. As always, we want to tailor our coverage to the wants of our readers, so please feel free to use the comments section here as a sounding board for what you want to find on the site during the month of March. What intrigues you most about this year's spring training landscape? What reports would you like to read? What sights would you like to see? Stay Tuned to Spring As always, we'll be pumping out plenty of articles from our writers and readers in addition to spring training coverage in March, but if you want to stay tuned in to all the stuff coming directly from Ft. Myers, you'll probably want to bookmark our Twins Daily Spring Training 2014 section. This page will feature a steady stream of camp-related content, especially once things ramp up next month. In addition, you can expect the @TwinsDaily Twitter account to become very active. Stories To Track Here are some of the compelling narratives we'll be keeping an eye on -- from afar and up close -- over the next six weeks: 1. Mauer the first baseman. We've seen the former MVP at first before; he logged 38 starts there over the past two seasons. Yet now he makes the full-time transition to a new position, putting away the catcher's gear for good. How will Mauer adapt to the new digs and how will his body react to the lessened punishment? 2. Fringe rotation contenders make their pitch. Four starters are locked in, for now: Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. That leaves one spot open for a group that includes Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and several others. As injuries inevitably take their toll during the spring, we may see more openings pop up. Don't count out the emergence of a dark horse. 3. Non-roster invites on the bubble. Familiar faces Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier and Jason Bartlett will all be back in camp looking to earn their way onto the Twins' roster once again. Each has his own challenges to overcome but it's a safe bet that at least one or two of these guys will be on the roster to start the season. 4. Top prospects in the spotlight. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer will all be looking to make an impression on the big-league manager. As Oswaldo Arcia showed last year, that can go a long way. 5. The search for power. Brian Dozier led the club in homers last year with 18, but few expect him to repeat that number. With Justin Morneau gone, no other Twin hit more than 14 bombs in 2013, so we'll be looking for signs of improved pop this spring from players like Trevor Plouffe, Josh Willingham, and Arcia. Click here to view the article

When Chris Colabello's season got off to an insanely hot start, I remember multiple people commenting to me excitedly about how he was on pace for something like 200 RBI. Some folks just love to extrapolate those grandiose "on pace" figures when a guy has a great first couple weeks. It's fun early season fodder, but of course, it's all utterly meaningless. Projecting hypothetical full-season totals at the halfway point is a bit more sensible, because at this point we've got 50 percent of a season as our sample. That's not enough to preclude fluky performances, but 81 games is 81 games. I thought I'd examine some of the crazier first-half stats on the Twins, in the context of what the numbers will look like at year's end if the player replicates his first three months. Joe Mauer is on pace for four home runs and 52 RBI. And he hasn't even missed much time. He played in 75 of the team's 81 first-half games, piled up 336 plate appearances, and managed a total of two home runs and 26 RBI. Many people hoped, perhaps misguidedly, that the transition to first base would yield more prototypical power numbers. Others would have been satisfied with the usual Mauer, whose production would have been good -- not spectacular -- at an offense-oriented position. Instead, Mauer is on pace to play a career-high 150 games and drive in 52 runs. Part of that is on his teammates. Part is bad luck. But… man. Brian Dozier is on pace for 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Dozier has been pretty cold lately, so it might be a little difficult to envision him reaching this heralded milestone combo at the moment, but he's proven over the last two years that he's capable of catching fire at any time. Here's a list of players that have joined the 30/30 club since 2010: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun (twice), Ian Kinsler, Mike Trout. That's it. Dozier's growth continues to amaze. In the minors, he topped out at nine home runs and 24 steals in a season. Download attachment: briandozier.jpg Photo by Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports Eduardo Escobar is on pace for 46 doubles. OK, this really came out of nowhere. I have long wondered if the young infielder might have hidden offensive upside, to the extent that he might be a superior option to Pedro Florimon, but there was little in Escobar's track record to suggest this kind of two-bagger tear was possible. The 25-year-old entered this season with a .228/.280/.307 MLB hitting line. In eight minor-league seasons, he slugged .358 and topped out with 26 doubles in a campaign. Last year, only nine major leaguers hit more than 40 doubles, so if Escobar comes anywhere near the projected total it'd be wild. This has the makings of one of those half-season flukes, but if Escobar can keep it up, a doubles-machine shortstop with a decent glove is a quality asset. Phil Hughes is on pace to issue 20 walks. … In 32 starts and 206 innings. Wow. That would be fewer than half the walks Hughes allowed in 145 innings last year with New York, and even then his total wasn't bad. Ricky Nolasco is on pace to allow 250 hits. The Twins have had some hittable, contact-heavy staffs over the years -- they've given up the most hits of any team in the majors since 2011, in fact -- but in the past decade only one Minnesota starter has allowed 250-plus hits in a season: Carl Pavano (262). Ironically, that was in 2012, right after he'd signed what was at the time the most expensive free agent contract for a starting pitcher in franchise history. I don't actually think Nolasco is going to give up 250 hits. I expect big improvement in the second half, and hopefully we saw the beginning of that on Tuesday night. But if he keeps getting knocked around, the Twins aren't going to have much choice but to keep trotting him out. Glen Perkins is on pace to save 40 games with a 90-to-12 K/BB ratio. Obscene. [/hr]Twins beat the Royals on Tuesday so on Wednesday you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza at PapaJohns.com when using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'. Click here to view the article

As the slow early weeks of this offseason dragged on, we kept hearing the same refrain: Just wait until Zack Greinke signs. Then all of the dominoes will begin to fall. True story. We're seeing it now. On Monday, the Dodgers announced they'd signed the game's premier free agent to a monstrous six-year, $147 million deal. In the days since, other top names have begun to quickly come off the board. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On Thursday, the Angels landed Josh Hamilton with a five-year, $125 million offer. Shortly after that came to light, Bob Nightengale reported that Anibal Sanchez – the consensus No. 2 free agent pitcher – had signed a five-year, $75 million contract with the Cubs, though he later backtracked. Sanchez is now playing Chicago against Detroit, and his price will likely be driven up. It's pretty compelling stuff, really. Overshadowed by those huge headlines was Ryan Dempster's signing with the Red Sox. The right-hander agreed to terms on a two-year, $26.5 million deal that looks downright reasonable in comparison to some of these other sums being thrown around. According to Doogie Wolfson's source, the Twins "kicked the tires" on Dempster but "never made a formal offer." Terry Ryan's done a whole lot of tire-kicking this winter, but appears content to walk away with nothing but scuffed shoes and empty hands, at least when it comes to the middle tier of starters. We've heard the Twins connected to names like Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Francisco Liriano and Joe Blanton, but there's been no steam with higher-grade options such as Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson. Why not take a shot at Dempster? The Twins could have outbid the Red Sox and still been comfortably short of last year's budget. Dempster has his warts, for sure. He'll turn 36 in May, and he got knocked around a bit after being traded to the AL this year. With the Rangers, he still averaged a strikeout per inning and pitched well after a couple early clunkers so I wouldn't worry too much about it. He has posted an ERA of 3.85 or below in four of the past five years and has averaged 200 innings over that span. He's a very solid starter, and his addition would send a message to fans that the Twins are truly committed to improving, now and in the future. Some might say that Boston is a more attractive destination for Dempster, which brings us to the theory that free agents flat-out don't want to sign in Minnesota. But the Sox have been more of a mess than the Twins over the last two seasons and Fenway is a pretty treacherous pitching environment, which matters for a guy who might try to score one more contract after this one. Apparently Ryan never made a serious bid, so it all becomes a moot point. Even if the Twins were low on Dempster, why not get legitimately involved with the likes of a Marcum or Jackson? The money is ostensibly there, and even if contention in the next year or two is unlikely, they need to get better. They need to keep playing meaningful games past the middle of July to counteract the attendance drain that has been hitting them in the late months. They need a proven veteran to lead a young and inexperienced staff, and the current senior Kevin Correia is not a credible candidate. Up to this point the Twins have essentially added no payroll for 2013. The Correia signing brings them back near even after they unloaded Denard Span's salary. With the big free agent names off the board, this is where Ryan should become active. These are the pitchers he should be in on. He might have to pay more than he'd like in order to play that game. In fact, he definitely will. But failing to even participate in the bidding would be a disservice to fans, as well as plain-old bad team-building. The current starting stable is completely devoid of reliable assets – Ryan admitted as much when surprisingly acknowledging that "there's no guarantee [Correia] will strengthen the group" – and that's just no way to proceed, even if the ultimate goal is to make a push further down the line. There is not a team in the league that should be more desperate for quality pitching than the Twins. Perhaps they should start acting like it. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: buxton.jpg Five-tool potential? Check. Comparisons to all-time greats like Bo Jackson and Willie Mays? Check. Classic baseball name? Check. Yep, Byron Buxton seems to have everything you'd hope for in a top pick. Now he just needs to turn his elite tools into production on the professional stage – something the last high-profile prep outfielder drafted by the Twins has failed to do thus far. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The comparisons to Aaron Hicks were inevitable from the moment Buxton's name was mentioned as a potential target at No. 2. Both were center fielders with off-the-charts athleticism. Both did some pitching for their high school teams, with a fastball clocking in the high 90s. And both had the kind of upside with the bat that makes scouts drool. Hicks impressed the folks at Baseball America so much with his tools and potential that after the 2009 season they ranked him as the 19th-best prospect in all of baseball, despite the fact that his numbers in Beloit that year were thoroughly mediocre (.735 OPS, 4 HR, 10 SB in 67 G). Unfortunately, three years later the 2008 first-rounder hasn't taken the kind of steps those analysts believed he would. He dropped to No. 45 on BA's list after a good-not-great encore season in the Midwest League in 2010, and fell off the Top 100 completely after hitting .242 with five homers in Ft. Myers last season. Currently, the 22-year-old Hicks is hitting .247 in New Britain and his ability to take walks – heretofore his primary asset – continues to deteriorate. The switch-hitting outfielder certainly shouldn't be labeled a bust, but at this point his upside looks more like solid regular than star. Hicks and Buxton are different people and one man's journey has no bearing on another. Still, the slow and frustrating path that Hicks has followed serves as a cautionary tale when it comes to the organization's latest blockbuster addition. The questions that surrounded Hicks when the Twins selected him 14th overall in '08 were the same ones that generally surround any teenager drafted out of high school, and they are the same ones now attached to Buxton: How will those immense physical attributes play out when he goes from facing crummy high school hurlers to imposing professionals? Fortunately, Buxton's tools are a notch above those of Hicks, not to mention every other position player that was involved in this year's draft (with the possible exception of No. 1 pick Carlos Correa). As an 18-year-old with a long way to go before reaching the majors, Buxton is a gamble, especially considering that the Twins passed on a number of highly rated pitchers to take him, but with his otherworldly speed, his sweet right-handed swing and his cannon arm he seems exceedingly well equipped for the challenge ahead. And coupled with Miguel Sano, he injects more excitement into the Twins' farm system than we've seen in a very long time. Click here to view the article

At my former writing home, I made an annual tradition of running through each position on the Twins' roster in March, sorting out the backup options and projecting the starter's performance. That tradition will continue here at Twins Daily, and today I'll kick off the Position Analysis series with catcher, where Joe Mauer is looking for a big comeback year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] --- Likely Starter: Joe Mauer 2011 Stats: .287/.360/.368, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 38 R, 0/0 SB Download attachment: mauer.jpg Potential Backups: Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera, J.R. Towles, Rene Rivera, Chris Herrmann One eighty five. That was the collective batting average for Twins catchers last year. The position produced a total of 98 hits in 162 games; by comparison, Joe Mauer had 90 hits by the All-Star break in 2009, and that was after missing the entire month of April. That transcendent '09 campaign was what earned Mauer his massive $184 million contract, which kicked off with a thud last year. Limited to 42 starts behind the plate due to injury, the former MVP watched as his replacements tested the very limits of ineptitude, posting an astonishingly bad .453 OPS in his absence. It was a treacherous experience, but also a reminder as to why, when healthy and able to catch, Mauer is worth the premium price tag. While the Twins carried an especially awful batch of backup catchers last year, finding decent ones is no easy task. In general, this just isn't a position that produces much offense. American League backstops collectively hit just .238/.305/.391 last year; that's a rate of production that Mauer easily surpassed even while battling numerous ailments. If his health is vastly improved this season – and all early signs are indicating just that – his numbers will dwarf an average catcher's production and he'll once again be a tremendous asset, underrated by those who focus solely on home runs and RBI. Of course, the money question at this point is whether Mauer can stick at catcher for the majority of the season. For now he's claiming that his knees are feeling just fine, but numerous injuries have taken their toll on his legs over the years and he had a tendency to wear down in September and October even when relatively healthy. Considering the seven remaining years on Mauer's contract and the need for him to produce at the end of the season, which he hasn't been able to do in the past, I believe the Twins would be wise to significantly lighten his load behind the plate regardless of how he's feeling. Fortunately, improved depth should enable Ron Gardenhire to do that without once again turning the catcher position into an offensive black hole. Ryan Doumit, signed during the offseason after hitting .303/.353/.477 for the Pirates last year, figures to serve as Mauer's top backup. Though he's considered a weak defender, the switch-hitting Doumit has a legitimate bat. Since the plan is for Doumit to frequently serve as the designated hitter, and both he and Mauer have had their share of durability issues, there's little doubt that the Twins will carry a third catcher. For now, Drew Butera would appear to be the front-runner for that spot, but former top prospect J.R. Towles is on hand to provide competition. Eventually, the Twins would love for Chris Herrmann, who posted a .385 OBP between Single-A and Double-A last year, to work his way into the mix. Last year Gardenhire had no choice but to cycle between the likes of Butera, Rene Rivera and Steve Holm when Mauer went down, and that can be attributed to some extremely poor planning by the front office. They'll be entering this season much better prepared for such a scenario, with a number of intriguing candidates capable of keeping Butera and Rivera firmly planted on the bench or in Rochester. Of course, the hope is that sorting through those candidates will never be an issue, because Mauer stays healthy and combines with Doumit to turn the catcher position back into an offensive asset. Vilified a year ago, Joe seems more determined than ever to make it happen. Predicted Hitting Line for Mauer: .310/.370/.460, 10 HR, 75 RBI Click here to view the article

Download attachment: willinghammer.jpg After missing a couple games due to the birth of his child, Josh Willingham returned to the Twins lineup on Sunday and immediately made his presence felt, delivering a two-run triple in his first at-bat to set the tone in a 7-4 Twins victory. Willingham finished the day 3-for-5 with a double and a single in addition to the three-bagger, raising his OPS to an eye-popping 1.163. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The left fielder has hit safely in 17 of 19 games as a Twin while collecting more extra-base hits (13) than singles (11). He has already hit three balls out of Target Field. He has absolutely obliterated left-handed pitching – he's slugging .863 against southpaws after jumping all over Bruce Chen on Sunday – making him an ideal fit between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. In short, Willingham has thus far been every bit the hitter that the Twins were hoping for, and he's quickly making people forget about the man he was signed to replace. Sure, Michael Cuddyer's grin is missed around the ballpark, and he's off to a nice start in Colorado, hitting .289/.349/.500 with eight doubles and a pair of homers. But Willingham's first month as a Twin, which won't be complete until the finish of Monday night's game in Los Angeles, matches up favorably against any month Cuddyer had during his 11-year tenure in Minnesota. Consider that Cuddy never posted a monthly OPS above 1.047 (that mark was recorded in May of 2009), which is more than 100 points short of where Willingham currently sits. Of course, plenty of caveats apply to the new outfielder's phenomenal April. It's been a particularly small sample size, even for a single month, at just 19 games and 81 plate appearances. He's also a traditionally quick starter with a history of slowing down as the season progresses, so we'll surely see a few slumps come along to even things out. For now, though, Willingham is erasing any concerns that existed about his age, his health and his ability to hit for power in the new home park. His consistency has been a breath of fresh air for a team that hasn't seen much. In a season where plenty has gone wrong, I'm happy to embrace one of the few things that's gone completely right. Click here to view the article

The status and outlook of the rotation is bound to be the biggest storyline for the Twins down the stretch and into the offseason. Clearly, there is no unit on this roster in a greater state of flux. Download attachment: Diamond.jpg As a new feature here on Twins Daily, we thought we'd start taking periodic glances at the starting pitching depth chart to provide a big-picture look at what the club currently has and what's in the pipeline. We'll post updates every few weeks, adjusting for performance swings, injuries and roster additions/subtractions. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The top five guys are the ones currently in the Twins' rotation. After that, it gets a little subjective, but this is the pecking order as we see it. Feel free to voice your own opinion on these rankings, and on how far the team is from fielding a respectable rotation in 2013. 1. Scott Diamond. The surprise of the year continues to excel. He's turned in five straight quality starts and posted a 2.95 ERA overall in 128 innings. How long can he sustain his success with one of the league's lowest strikeout rates? 2. Sam Deduno. His "effectively wild" approach has held up thus far, as he's managed a 4-1 record and 3.33 ERA despite tallying more walks than strikeouts. Hard to expect that to continue, but right now he's got a pretty airtight case as the team's second-best starter. 3. Brian Duensing. His extreme vulnerability against right-handed hitters makes him a far better option in the bullpen, but Duensing is a solid pitcher and he has quietly turned in a 3.77 ERA in four starts since rejoining the rotation at the end of July. 4. Cole De Vries. A recent "sad but true" tweet from Patrick Reusse: "Every time Cole De Vries retires a big-league hitter I'm surprised." In spite of his lackluster stuff, the righty has decent peripherals and continues to squeak by. He turned in a solid outing against the punchless A's last night. 5. Liam Hendriks. The rookie returns to the rotation on Wednesday night after Nick Blackburn's surprising DFA earlier this week. Hendriks hardly could have been worse during a couple earlier stints with the Twins, but has been nearly untouchable in Triple-A with 76 hits allowed in 106 innings. It will be interesting to see how he performs in this low-pressure late-season audition; he could rise fast on this list. --- 6. Anthony Swarzak. He's clearly better suited for his current relief role, but I have to believe Swarzak would be the first guy Ron Gardenhire would call upon if he needed another starter at this moment. 7. Esmerling Vasquez. Like Deduno, Vasquez is an erratic right-hander in his late 20s who limits hits but hands out tons of walks. He probably deserves a chance but it's not clear the Twins are willing to deal with two such pitchers in the their rotation at once. 8. Nick Blackburn. The club's decision to remove him not only from the 25-man roster but the 40-man roster is a sign that they've soured on him badly. Still, he's under contract for $5 million next year so if he shows signs of life in Triple-A he'll probably get another chance. 9. Kyle Gibson. Recovering from Tommy John surgery, the former first-round pick has looked very sharp in 11 rehab outings between rookie ball and Single-A. He'll need to carry that to the upper levels before he's viewed as a legitimate option for the big-league rotation, but so far all signs are positive. 10. Pedro Hernandez. Acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, Hernandez is a classic Twins pitch-to-contact type and thus far he's allowed 23 hits in 15 innings for Rochester since coming over. He might get a glance in September just because, but he's got much to prove before entering the mix for next year. Plus, he left last night's game in Triple-A with an injury. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: span.jpg Denard Span stepped into the box to lead off Tuesday night's game and turned on the third pitch he saw from left-hander David Huff, driving it into right field for a double and sparking a three-hit night. In six games since returning from the disabled list, the center fielder is now 9-for-25 (.360) with two doubles, a triple and four runs scored. His late-season success bodes well for Terry Ryan heading into an offseason where Span will likely be the club's primary trade chip. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Following what will almost certainly be a second consecutive season with 90-plus losses, there's going to be plenty of pressure on Ryan to shake things up. The emergence of Chris Parmelee makes the Twins motivated sellers, and given that they have not-so-subtly dangled Span in back-to-back trade deadlines, the writing is on the wall. There's an extremely high likelihood that Span will be dealt this offseason. So the question is: what can they get for him? When it comes to assessing his trade value, he has several things working in his favor. He's an established leadoff man with a reputation as a strong defender. He'll be coming off a solid season in which he currently holds a .290 average (third among AL center fielders) and .350 OBP (fourth) with a career-high 34 doubles. It's also very much worth noting that the free agent crop for center fielders this offseason will be quite thin. Unless you count Josh Hamilton, the most appealing options are B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn. Not one of those players is clearly a better bet going forward than Span, whose three-year, $20 million remaining contract looks like a great value compared to what those three are likely to get on the open market. Then again, Span also has some things going against him. No one views him as the powerful force he was in 2008/09 anymore, and his missed time over the past two seasons has to weigh on the minds of interested general managers. Even if he plays every game the rest of the way, he will have missed 127 games over the past two years. Fortunately, last year's concussion is now an afterthought and his strong play since returning from this latest shoulder ailment will help erase concerns that this one could linger. That's why carrying his current hot streak through the end of the campaign would be a big positive for the Twins. Just one more thing to watch here in the final two weeks. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Orioles22.jpg Many believe there's no way the Twins can possibly turn things around quickly enough to be a competitive team next season. They're on their way to a second straight 90-plus loss season, their starting rotation is an absolute mess and their best prospects are still probably a couple years away from making an impact. To those people, I present the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] A year ago, the O's finished last in the AL East for a fourth straight season, and their 4.89 team ERA was the worst mark in the majors. Now, they find themselves in the thick of the postseason race,tied with the Yankees for first place in what is routinely baseball's toughest division. Their 4.09 team ERA is exactly on par with the American League average. With three weeks left in the season, they've already posted their highest win total since 1998. It's a pretty remarkable story, and one that should provide a spark of hope for despondent Twins fans. For while Baltimore's shocking rise has been heavily influenced by good luck (they're 17 games over .500 despite being outscored by opponents this season), their circumstances are also far more daunting than the Twins. The Orioles had been in the gutter for the better part of two decades, rather than two years, and they play in the treacherous AL East rather than the perpetually mediocre AL Central. The most relevant ingredient in Baltimore's turnaround is their pitching staff's rise from worst-in-the-world to middle-of-the-pack. If the Twins, who currently rank 28th out of 30 MLB teams in ERA, could simply move to the middle in 2013, there's no reason why they couldn't take a shot at the Central division with some good breaks (and after the last two years, it definitely seems like they'll be due for some good breaks). How has Baltimore done it? To quote Terry Ryan, they've done it by exploring every avenue. You've got your unconventional free agent signing in Wei-Yin Chen, who's come over from Japan with great success. You've got your savvy trade acquisition in Jason Hammel, brought over from the Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie (who fell apart in Colorado). You've got your out-of-nowhere unheralded minor-league free agent in Miguel Gonzalez. You've got young players who have previously struggled, like Chris Tillman and Zach Britton, taking steps forward. And you've got a lights-out relief corps. The O's rank fourth in the AL with a 3.17 bullpen ERA. Baltimore didn't go on a spending spree to repair a broken pitching staff. They got creative, showed patience with young arms and benefited from some good fortune. There's no reason to rule out a similar scenario for the Twins, especially when you consider that the GM Ryan has made numerous good moves since retaking the helm (even if that's not reflected in the team's record) and he figures to have a decent chunk of money to spend this winter. "Be like Baltimore." For many years it would have been an insane model for success, but for the Twins and Terry Ryan, it will make for a great offseason formula. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hernandez.jpg Five spots in next year's rotation. One guy locked in. It's hard to look at the daunting uncertainty in Minnesota's rotation as a good thing, but there are some fringe benefits to the situation. One is that it may be easier for Terry Ryan to lure in pitchers who are left without a seat and forced to sign minor-league contracts when the music stops on this offseason's free agent class. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] There could be quite a few of those guys standing around in January and February. While every pitcher would like a guaranteed big-league deal, there may not be enough to go around for this deep group, especially considering the risk involved with some of the bottom-of-the-barrel names below. These are just a few examples of pitchers that could miss out on big-league deals due to miserable 2012 campaigns. There's virtually no risk involved with a minor-league contract, and many of these pitchers would carry considerable reward. Roberto Hernandez - RHP 2012 Stats: 14.1 IP, 0-3, 7.53 ERA, 2/3 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP It's been a tough year for the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. In the aftermath of his false identity scandal, he spent the first half of the season in the Dominican Republic waiting on a U.S. visa, then served a three-week suspension upon his return to the States in July. When he finally rejoined the Indians, he pitched horribly for three starts and then missed all of September with an ankle injury. Ouch. Hernandez has plenty of baggage and has certainly been more bad than good in his big-league career, but he was effective as recently as 2010, when he put up a 3.77 ERA in 210 innings, and at 32 he's hardly ancient. His career ground ball rate of 58.5 percent is elite. Chien-Ming Wang - RHP 2012 Stats: 32.1 IP, 2-3, 6.68 ERA, 15/15 K/BB, 2.01 WHIP The Nationals signed Wang to a one-year, $4 million deal last offseason – a sizable sum considering that he'd pitched only 104 innings in the prior three years thanks to shoulder problems. The good news is that Wang's shoulder stayed intact this year. The bad news is… well, everything else. He suffered a hamstring injury in spring training, then after returning in May he missed time due a hip injury, and between those drawn-out ailments he struggled mightily in both the majors and minors. He hasn't been able to stay healthy since 2007, but it's worth noting that he won 19 games in back-to-back years for the Yankees and at 32 there's still a chance he could rediscover that heavy sinker. Jonathan Sanchez - LHP 2012 Stats: 64.2 IP, 1-9, 8.07 ERA, 45/53 K/BB, 2.09 WHIP After acquiring him from the Giants during the offseason for Melky Cabrera, the Royals watched Sanchez absolutely implode, posting a 7.76 ERA over 12 starts while yielding a .937 OPS and handing out more walks than strikeouts. They unloaded him on the Rockies midway through the summer and he was even worse during three starts for Colorado before being shut down for the year. It was one of the worst campaigns we've seen from a pitcher in some time, but Sanchez had been an effective starter in San Francisco for three years prior to his trade to Kansas City, overcoming his shaky control with a gaudy strikeout rate to post a 3.75 ERA from 2009 to 2011. He'll turn only 30 this offseason. Does any of that previous ability still reside within him? Bartolo Colon - RHP 2012 Stats: 152.1 IP, 10-9, 3.43 ERA, 91/23 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP Colon is a different type of case from the guys above in that the anticipated lack of interest in him this winter has nothing to do with his performance over the past season. He was actually very good for the A's… up until he was suspended for 50 games in August after testing positive for Testosterone. Following his travesty of a Cy Young in 2005, Colon failed to reach even 100 innings in four consecutive years and was then out of the game in 2010. He came back last year with the Yankees at age 38 and was shockingly good, and this year with the A's he was even better. Of course, now we might know why. Tough to see the Twins giving him a chance, but who knows, maybe he can keep the magic working even without the juice. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: terryryan.jpg Ask Terry Ryan what his payroll limitation is for next year and he'll tell you that he doesn't view payroll as a limitation. It's his way of sidestepping an important question, possibly at the behest of an ownership that has notoriously shied away from big spending. Ryan can downplay the importance of allotted budget and the significance of $85 million versus $100 million all he wants, but there's no escaping the fact that his level of financial flexibility will be a key determinant in the extent to which he's able to address the roster's various deficiencies, particularly in the short term.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Because when you have to scour external avenues for players as the Twins clearly must, money talks, and more money means better, more reliable players. That's especially true when you're trying to lure said players to a potentially undesirable destination, such as a flyover territory club with nearly 200 losses over the past two seasons. The above seems obvious, but Ryan would apparently have us believe that it's a minor factor in his offseason planning. He would point, I'm sure, to the numerous teams with sub-$90 million payrolls that have found their way into the playoffs. He would likely point to successful teams that he himself assembled for much less than that. But these are different times. Competitiveness in the AL Central is kicking up a notch with the Tigers throwing cash around and the Royals looking more serious about contending. Meanwhile, the struggling Twins don't have a wealth of MLB-ready minor leaguers to step in and help turn things around on the cheap. They're currently caught in a transitional period where quality contributors of the past -- guys like Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn -- have either moved on or ceased to be effective, and there's no "next wave" internally poised to take over the reigns. Not next year, not the year after. This farm system is bereft of high-end arms, and even if you assume a best-case scenario with the likes of Kyle Gibson and Liam Hendriks, they're still a couple pieces short of respectability in the rotation. If the Twins want to improve their decimated pitching corps to the point where it has a chance to be even a mid-tier unit any time in the near future, they'll have to hit the open market with authority, and early indications suggest that it might take a sizable chunk of change to to do so. The old bargain bin route would be the essential equivalent to a white flag. Ryan talks often about exploring all avenues, but even with savvy scouting and great luck, you're not going to find more than a couple impact players through minor-league deals, waiver pickups and the Rule 5 draft. The front office needs to think bigger, and I'm sure they're aware of that, regardless of any posturing to the contrary. There's just no way around it: to upend this two-year stretch of misery, Ryan will need to spend. He'll need to spend wisely, of course, but he will absolutely need to spend. The freedom he's given to do so should serve as a simple, clear indicator of the ownership's desire to right the ship in short order. Click here to view the article

After watching their lineup get decimated by injuries last season, the Twins were hoping they'd have better luck keeping position players healthy in the new campaign. So far, so good in that regard. There have been no broken bones, no bilateral leg weakness, no reemergence of concussion symptoms. Unfortunately, pitching has been a different story. The Twins lost Joel Zumaya, their projected top right-handed setup option, and Scott Baker, their potential No. 1 starter, before either threw a pitch in the regular season. Nick Blackburn will miss at least his next start due to shoulder soreness and Glen Perkins has been shut down temporarily due to a strained forearm. These injuries are especially unfortunate in that they are hitting players at the top of the depth chart rather than the bottom.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Baker, Zumaya, Perkins and Blackburn are established MLB talents that the Twins were counting on to carry weight on a questionable staff. Attempting to fill holes with the same marginal pitchers who were rejected during spring training isn't likely to pay dividends. Instead, the Twins should take advantage of an opportunity afforded to them by their status as a retooling American League cellar-dweller. Up until the end of April, waiver claim priority is dictated by last year's records, meaning that the Twins get first dibs on any player waived by an AL club. At the beginning of May, the waiver order determinant flips over to this year's records, but the Twins should remain near the top of the list at that point unless they start rattling off wins over the next couple weeks. This is an auxiliary benefit of Minnesota's excessive losing in 2011 and early in 2012 that should not be overlooked. At this point in the season, many intriguing names tend to pass through the waiver wire as teams make early roster adjustments. Download attachment: thompson.jpg There simply aren't many pitchers on the Twins' staff that Terry Ryan should be unwilling to expose to waivers if it means making room for a young hurler with some upside. Two such examples that have been discussed on the Twins Daily forum recently are Rich Thompson of the Angels and Michael Bowden of the Red Sox. Thompson, 27, is a right-hander who posted a 3.00 ERA and 9.33 K/9 rate for Los Angeles last year, though a decrease in velocity this spring contributed to his being designated for assignment. Bowden is only 25 and was a Baseball America Top 100 prospect in three consecutive seasons from 2007-09. These are just two examples of players with more ability than numerous members of Minnesota's current staff, and there are bound to be more hitting the wire in the coming weeks. The Twins certainly aren't in a position to be looking for short-term bullpen fixes, but if they can bring in a young player with a chance to fill a need for years to come, that would be a big win. Click here to view the article