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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Correct, players who didn't make the majors were counted as zero, and there were also a handful of players each draft that had a negative WAR (which I ranked as less than zero, but would only apply in the Moses draft). I don't know if "successful" is necessarily the right word, but perhaps that they exceeded the expectation of the pick that they had. I'm not even suggesting the Twins have been good in the draft, as there are obviously other factors such as later round picks, elite talents vs guys who are role players, etc that matter greatly to the overall success of a franchise. But I do think some of the criticisms being levied here lack context of what is actually produced out of the draft on a year to year basis.
  2. drjim
    For reference, I also did St. Louis and Tampa. St. Louis 2001: Pick 28, Rank T-16 (0) 2002: No Pick 2003: Pick 28, Rank 9 2004: Pick 19, Rank 29 2005: Pick 28, 30, Rank 10, 28 2006: Pick 30, Rank 11 2007: Pick 18, Rank 12 2008: Pick 13, Rank 29 Tampa 2001: Pick 3, Rank 29 2002: Pick 2, Rank 9 2003: Pick 1, Rank 14 2004: Pick 4, Rank 9 2005: Pick 8, Rank T-23 (0) 2006: Pick 3, Rank 1 (Longoria) 2007: Pick 1, Rank 2 (Price) 2008: Pick 1, Rank T-21 (0)
  3. drjim
    I was thinking of this draft issue so I did a tiny bit of research. I went to baseball-reference and analyzed the 2001-2008 drafts, where they rank each player selected by WAR. Not perfect, but good enough for a good study. Here is the pick the Twins had (or expected WAR rank of the pick), and how the player actually currently ranks. 2001: Pick 1 (Mauer), WAR rank 2 2002: Pick 20 (Span), WAR rank T-6 2003: Pick 21 (Moses), WAR rank T-19 (0) 2004: Pick 20 (Plouffe), 22 (Perkins), 25 (Waldrop), WAR ranks 17, 7, 19 2005: Pick 25 (Garza), WAR rank 8 2006: Pick 20 (Parmelee), WAR rank 10 2007: Pick 28 (Revere), WAR rank T-8 2008: Pick 14 (Hicks), WAR rank T-12 Interestingly enough, the Twins have done better on every one of their first round picks relative to what the expected WAR would be at that pick except for Mauer. I also think that most of these picks will get no worse, and will actually probably do better than their current ranks. Perhaps people have unrealistic expectations for Twins draft results? EDIT: Forgot Guitterez in 2008. 27th Pick, T-21 WAR (0)
  4. drjim
    I want most (if not all) of the value in one prospect and I want that prospect to be on the major league roster by the start of next season, or extremey close to ready. I agree the system doesn't need depth, that it needs to focus on more elite talents. Anything short of that and this trade is an unnecessary step backwards imo. I think the team will be a fringe contender next year and shouldn't be moving good players that will contribute next year for prospects that would only help in a later season.
  5. drjim
    Archer was acquired by the Rays in the Garza trade (with the Cubs).
  6. drjim
    I'm not sure McCarthy was a smarter bet based upon known medical concerns going into the year. And Harden has little to do with this. He was a minor league flyer.
  7. drjim
    It's amazing how patient you can be when there are no other options.
  8. drjim
    I don't think it is no trade value and is certainly higher than the upside arms you called for instead. I think Ryan saw value in Correia as a stabilizing backend starter. Someone who could answer the bell on day one and make a start evert fifth day while he could work through the various other arms. He has at least done that. I think your alternative is sound and I would also lean that way personally but there is value in what Correia has provided the Twins. They still need to put out a lineup abd rotation throughout the season.
  9. drjim
    Overpaid was directed at Lincecum specifically as he will ger paid some for whay he has done instead of what he will likely do in the future. I would have no problem with Vargas or Nolasco I just prefer Hughes and Johnson.
  10. drjim
    I never thought of Johnson as from Minnesota. I thought of him as the pitcher from that list with the chance to have the best season but with huge risk. I see Hughes as the guy with the best chance to improve in new surroundings.
  11. drjim
    Johnson because he has upside. I wouldn't go huge on him by any means and he would have to be the second guy signed. Hughes because I think he would be better in Target Field and by leaving the AL East. Vargas and Nolasco would be fine but I see minimal upside beyond what they are. Lincecum is intriguing but is on the decline and will probably be overpaid.
  12. drjim
    I would personally be fine with many guys in that tier. I mentioned the two I would target first.
  13. drjim
    I like Hughes and Johnson. There are some options in that tier.
  14. drjim
    No. Trades never work like that.
  15. drjim
    Yes on high prices but teams arw still relatively savvy. The price on mediocrity won't explode but it will high. And when Correia is the fifth best guy it is a weak class.
  16. drjim
    My take is no one as good as Sanchez or Greinke but more depth in the next tier relative to last offseason.
  17. drjim
    I think Terry Ryan should have signed one of the better free agent pitchers last offseason that didn't actually exist.
  18. drjim
    If he actually is able to pitch by the end of the year he'll go to the Arizona Fall League. Still on pace to debut sometime early next year. But yes, injuries suck.
  19. drjim
    I don't think the Twins passed on Liriano, Feldman and Villanueva because if salary.
  20. drjim
    The problem is that it is difficult to do much better in free agency. As another thread indicates Correia has been the 4th best free agent signed this past offseason, and they are all in the same range and there might not be much separation the rest of the season. The three ahead of him are Sanchez (who has been beaten to death), Saunders (who they made an offer for) and Villanueva (who has pitched more out the bullpen). Greinke will also pass Correia in value in a start or two. I accept this criticism as a commentary on the sad state of the Twins franchise, and that is fine, but it is a little hallow if the suggestion is that he should have signed more better free agents. They didn't really exist last offseason.
  21. drjim
    I think complaints like this really fail to acknowledge how few quality free agent options there actually were last offseason. This complaint goes round and round and is beaten to death and this fundamental fact still hasn't changed.
  22. drjim
    All three of those guys probably needed to be in AAA for various reasons and they needed someone to take their place on the roster. This will be a footnote by Aug 1.
  23. drjim
    I won't comment about other foruns because I don't visit them but I would say the same people who float the theort that Pohlads want to cut payroll and make money above all else are not Ryan supporters. That was the observation I was making. I have never read someone say that Ryan would sign more free agents if only the Pohlads would loosen the purse strings. For better or worse Ryan defenders will defend him not dipping into the free agent class fir a variety of reasons but never because he didn't have enough money in the budget.
  24. drjim
    The A's and Rays also trade stud pitchers two years from free agency. Twins haven't exactly bern swimming in those types of pitchers.
  25. drjim
    And the other half were guys that never made sense to trade until after the fact or had no value once they reached the majors. The worst type od hindsight is to imply they should have traded a prearb pitcher because he eventually faded away, especially when the team is trying to compete. Those are the guys a tean wants to build around not trade.
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