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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Fine article. We have speculated on possible return but does anyone have a realistic answer to this? I wonder if it is less than we think. I am coming around to a trade but the Twins would need at minimum a young starter that can be in the rotation no later than opening day next year. Would any team give this up?
  2. drjim
    Another route for Hendriks could be the bullpen, perhaps the Sawrzak role. His biggest issue is he struggles to turn a lineup over multiple times.
  3. drjim
    Good timing. If Diamond bombs wouldn't be surprised at all if Hendriks replaces him.
  4. drjim
    The one thing they will be able to do is "buy" marginal prospects for the money. I agree that they won't get any prospect of too much note, but they could maybe some guys slightly above org level talents. Two ways that I think this strategy makes sense: 1. If they really like this year's crop more than next year. 2. If they take a big jump in the standings (and thus decrease their total money for next year). I think the strategy makes more sense for a team like Texas, to go big one year and sit out the next, but is of questionable value for the Cubs (barring one of the two conditions above). They will have the ability to go big next year too, and it would seem to me they get approximately the same total number of blue chippers for more total money (due to the overages). For the extra money they get whatever prospects they can acquire for the money next year (which I suspect will be of limited value).
  5. drjim
    Carroll will almost certainly be off the roster one way or another before September. He would be a reasonable candidate to replace him.
  6. drjim
    I was following you until the conclusion. Struggling for a couple of weeks doesn't mean it will take over a year to put it together. He could just as easily start clicking following the all star break and futures game.
  7. drjim
    I appreciate this argument. But isn't "luck" another way of saying a pitcher has no control once a fair ball is hit (aside from maybe a normalized fly ball rate)? I understand that taking into account every pitch ever thrown there might be an expected babip, but I would don't think that wiuld necessarily apply over the shorter samples we have experienced so far. I grant that fip is most often the better indicator of future performance compared to era, but I would not grant it as a better measure of what actually did happen. Underlying stats or not a significant amount of tuns scored. I don't buy that can be explained away so easily by poor defense or "luck".
  8. drjim
    If Diamond gets blasted again I could see him being sent down to keep Tonkin up through at least the first 4 games after the break.
  9. drjim
    I'll add to this thought. A couple other bust profiles: -those that have high draft pick or big signing bonus pedigrees but don't dominate and stay in rankings because of said pedigree or non-hit tools. -those that "hold their own" while they are young for a level Like Red Bull said - those that don't bust are those that dominate at every level. The only slight pause I have is Sano's K rate. I fully expect him to improve on that over the next couple of months, but the fact is is that he will always be a K guy.
  10. drjim
    Chief kind of stole my id here. But I do know WAR comes from some formula involving k rate, bb rate, and either hr rate or fb rate. I can't remember if they adjust for leagues or park effects, but both of those would probably be minor enough not to impact my point all that much. The dollar amount comes from WAR x the marginal value of a win, something like $4.5 mil or so. WAR has its uses but definitely has limitations. I would look no further than these Marcum/Jackson results. EDIT: I should add that formula defines the amount of runs an individual pitcher saves which is translated into wins. These wins are then taken above and beyond some mythical replacement player to fully determine wins above replacement. The definition of replacement is perhaps my biggest source of skepticism on the whole formula. And I also think there should be more space for margin of error, especially for the big group of players that are under 2 WAR.
  11. drjim
    So Marcum is now out for the year. He pitched less than 80 innings and had an era in the mid 5s. I understand that Fangraphs looks at underlying stats but I think there has to be something said for actual basic results of outs and runs. To quantify those results into over $6 mil of value seems a little generous. Underlying stats speak to expected future performance for sure but I would hesitate to use them to quantify value in the present. I know of "random variation" and "luck" and would expect those to even out in time but they cannot tell a great story value in a sample size as small as 80to innings. That is why I question the methodology because it doesn't seem to capture the value of actual basic results. On a side note I am not criticizing Marcum. I wanted the Twins to sign him but it seems they dodged one. For all our weeping and gnashing of teeth it seems the FO might have known what they were doing on this specific transaction.
  12. drjim
    Ryan himself has said he has budget space left. It is possible that he is covering for his owner but a more logical explanation is he didn't find any free agent contracts he liked and didn't want to hamper future flexibility with overpays (either real or imagined).
  13. drjim
    I would personally take those results as a symbol of a flaw in the methodology of Fangraphs valuation.
  14. drjim
    Legit stuff. Power arm. Fastball/slider guy. Misses bats. Slama would be a terrible comp.
  15. drjim
    I wouldn't read that much into it. But it could open the door down the line. I hope he sticks. Another young guy who will play a key role in the upcoming years.
  16. drjim
    Fair enough. I mistakingly thought a thread analyzing Ryan and his (lack of) moves would have been more concerned with moves he actually could have made involving players that actually exist. If the question is whether the Twins hypothetically should sign a good pitcher to a five year deal then I could hypothetically be on board. Just not Sanchez at that contract.
  17. drjim
    That last line made me chuckle.
  18. drjim
    This is extremely disingenuous. It is only fair to judge on players who actually exist not complain about hypothetical signings of players that aren't there. It was Sanchez, Greinke or the assorted leftover slop. Part of what is not acknowledged is that a signing like this is agreeable in theory but is much more difficult to execute in practice, mostly because of a lack of supply of free agent pitchers of that quality. The only way to acquire a pitcher like this in free agency is a massive overpay at a cost that franchises with more resources and closer to competing this season chose to pass on. I would think that would give some pause as to the wisdom of the Twins outbidding the Tigers for Sanchez.
  19. drjim
    I had the thought Molitor would be manager and Kelly serves as bench coach a year or two to help break him in.
  20. drjim
    I think this is the likely Twins strategy in the near future. On a smaller scale they did similar moves with Pavano (and Stewart before that).
  21. drjim
    Not yet.
  22. drjim
    A lot of talk about how the Twins should have signed a big free agent last offseason and also that the Twins can't make the playoffs unless they sign one. With that in mind I decided to take a look at the 10 playoff teams and analyze how many players on their collective rosters were players acquired via free agency from outside the organization for contracts longer than two years. Here is the list: Nationals - Werth Braves - none Cardinals - none Reds - none Giants - Zito Yankees - Sabathia, Tex Orioles - none Tigers - Fielder, VMart Rangers - Darvish, Beltre As - Cespedes I included Darvish and Cespedes even though I think they don't exactly apply to the issue at hand. A couple of thoughts: -4 teams had none of these types of free agents -VMart didn't play last year and Zito added little until the playoffs. Werth was hurt much of the year as well. Take them out and it drops to 6 players total and only 4 teams. -the two worse contracts on the list (Werth, Zito) were signed by teams that were not in the playoffs at the time of the signing. The teams obviously overcame this but it should be a cautionary situation for the Twins in their current situation. My final takeaway is that these types of free agents are not necessary and the teams that most utilize this method are bigger markets/payrolls than the Twins. Also, international free agency is a good idea.
  23. drjim
    Fair enough. Doubtful he provides many answers on thise questions at this point in time.
  24. drjim
    I also think he is gone. Probably played off as a mutual thing. Despite complaints here and elsewhere I think he is a perfectly fine manager saddled with brutal pitching. But there comes a time for a new voice in leadership. 12 years is a good run.
  25. drjim
    Personally I was not opposed to your hypothetical Lannan signing (as I suggested in my previous post). I just don't think the Twins, if they were to do such a signing, needed to spend twice as much on him as it would have taken to sign him. But to answer your question - at this point I don't think Lannan would net the Twins much of anything. Perhaps that would change by the deadline.
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