drjim
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Everything posted by drjim
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I agree with this. There absolutely needs to be movement next season. -
I don't know how you came to that conclusion of the first paragraph or the last sentence. I think our main difference is that I think the signing of Correia represents real tangible evidence that Terry Ryan actually did make moves to improve the team for this year, and that at least this move was successful. However, with the way in-house options progressed (or didn't), there probably wasn't any series of moves Ryan could have made that would have resulted in the Twins competing this year. That is the hole the franchise was in going into the season. That said, moves Ryan made have in my opinion set up the franchise to compete in the future, possibly as early as next season.
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Here is a study by Baseball Prospectus on pitcher injuries: Baseball Prospectus | Baseball Therapy: What Really Predicts Pitcher Injuries? I think it is true that no one will no the exact time and nature of an injury, but surely a competent GM should know which specific pitchers is more at risk for certain types of injuries. That risk should be at the time (and is) priced into a contract (ie why Marcum signed for what seemed like a small amount). That is why there is more culpability for a GM to take on that risk when it fails, then when there is a true flukey injury like getting hit by a bus or taking a line drive to the head.
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I am quite comfortable saying the Twins are better this year because they signed Correia than if they had signed no one or if he had signed any of the majority of pitchers that people on this board advocated for. For the rest of your question/statement I would agree the Twins are not all that good this year, but I think by the end of the year the rotation will have shown (and the team) will have shown improvement. It is true they are not competitive, but considering the baseline that was virtually impossible coming into the season no matter what Ryan did so not sure that is the most fair standard gor measuring success this season (which isn't to declare it a successful season thus far by any means).
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Oh come on, no one would ever do such a thing on this board.
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They had to sign someone to fill the spot in the rotation. Without including the best three (who I think weren't coming) might as well if signed the next best guy right? Isn't that the majority of complaints here, that Ryan did a poor job signing free agents last offseason? I know you would argue they couldn't know how he would perform or they get no credit for how he performed, but I would suggest they deserve some credit for identifying and signing and plugging him into the rotation despite the many objectors (myself included). Results do matter.
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It was a hastily written explanation of why perhaps Ryan deserves more credit for Correia than you grant him. He is obviously not great but is among the top free agent signings from last year and has exceeded expectations. I don't think that is merely luck, the front office deserves credit for identifying that relative to other options.
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You honestly don't understand why the GMs culpability would be different in these two scenarios? Do you think all injuries are flukes?
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Twins traded Santana partially because they didn't think he would hold up. Probably the reason they passed on Marcum and McCarthy. The Cardinals knew the risk of Carpenter but still signed him. These are different than a line drive off the dome. So Terry Ryan signs a guy, states that scouts recommended him for a specific reason, he does outperform expectations and thay means nothing because statistical predictions suggest he should have done worse? That is the logical conclusion.
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Expected to perform based on what standard? Your standard? Ryan's standard? A standard based on previous performance? This is the most baffling thing that you continually assert. A GM's acquisition(s) should be judged pretty much exclusively on how they perform. The job of the GM is to take all information - recent performance, scouting reports, health risks, fit to clubhouse/roster/ballpark, etc. - and make a decision. You can examine the process but it is ultimately about results.
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Colon also had the suspension for PEDs last year. That, combined with age, made it more than reasonable to stay away.
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What makes you think they aren't pushing for a trade? Biggest issue is he has such minimal value.
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Keep in mind this is his first full year with lots of extra attention and commitments. He could be suffering from some fatigue.
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Article: Trading Perkins Makes Too Much Sense
drjim replied to twinstalker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Isn't Tampa a good comp here? What was the last prospect they traded? Small market teams don't really trade prospects*. The Twins have been a non-small market team and good for a grand total of one year. Even in that small sample they traded a prospect for an established player. *the exception is Oakland which is a very uniquely run organization. I would argue their history shows that trading prospects for established players has backfired for them. They rebuilt their team by trading established players for prospects, like the rest of the small market teams. -
I think Sano is the only one that is up really early. Most of the improvement will come from step forwards by Hicks and Arcia and a little bit of a rebound by Willingham. Sano will basically be replacing Morneau.
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I see one significant free agent signed. Full season of Gibson. Meyer/May both up at some point. Rest filled in with current guys in rotation or AAA or perhaps another free agent. Not a great rotation by any means, but an improvement over this year.
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I expect one significant free agent starter signed, Gibson full year, another holdover or two from current rotation (out of Correia, Deduno, Pelfrey, Diamond), Meyer and May to both debut at some point. Similar production from the pen. Definite maturity out of Arcia and Hicks and a full season of at bats for each. Florimon and Dozier staying about the same (maybe slight upgrade for Dozier over full season), Rosario as a possible middle infield backup plan. Sano getting bulk of time at 3B with Plouffe going to corner OF or 1B. A free agent corner OF/1B signed. Willingham to perform somewhere between the last two seasons. One more bat out of Parmelee/Doumit/Cabello to emerge as competent. Mauer being Mauer. Buxton perhaps available to emerge at end of year. I think most teams that take a jump see it primarily from internal improvements, being able to replace declining players, and by adding a player or two. I think the Twins do all three next year.
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Considering I think they'll be fringe contenders next year avoiding 90 losses should be part of that.
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I don't see Ryan sabotaging the future of the franchise for a few wins in the present. I don't think he has to worry about being fired before he would voluntarily leave on his own. And I am pretty sure the Twins will lose less than 90 next year.
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That is a solid haul. More reason to trade Perkins?
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I would add that it won't go more than three. If the team has the same type of year next year Ryan will almost certainly leave voluntarily.
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Considering the state of the team/granchise when he took over and that the four starters under contract imploded the next year with no minor league reinforcements...I would personally give him more than two. I'm generous like that.
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I wonder if that is why he waited so long to sign, hoping Baltimore would jump in. Theu clearly had/have a need at SP.
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From what I read his wife was from Vancouver area. I could have bad info but that would make Seattle more attractive if similar offers.
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Actually it was family reasons and a desire to be on the West coast.
