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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    I think Oliveros would be better than Stauffer and Duensing. But I also think Meyer, Tonkin and Thielbar would all be better than Oliveros.
  2. drjim
    I think it goes down after Graham and to a lesser extent Pressly are fully rested. I have no problem with the move, surprised they left themselves a little short in the IF, but don't think Polanco was ready. Santana is the best defensive SS option right now but hard to argue he needed to regroup at the plate. We'll see on Vargas, I thought he need more time, but hope he mashes. Lineup certainly gets better, if a little less flexible.
  3. drjim
    Why do you want Oliveros over Meyer or Tonkin?
  4. drjim
    Vargas has a low I didn't say no difference. Just not a significant one, and not one that should stunt the development of Vargas. And Vargas has such a high OPS at Rochester that it is now 20 points lower than what Hicks put up in twice the ABs.
  5. drjim
    May was prospect eligible coming into the season, so he should count. I didn't say no one is better (I've mentioned Meyer 3 times this thread and Tonkin too and probably a couple of others would be a limited upgrade), I just don't understand the call for Oliveros, he is 7th best RP in the minors in my opinion. But the bigger point on Stauffer has always been not to get a better pitcher, but to replace him with a bat. As soon as the team clears the damage of the bullpen game, I think there will be a move.
  6. drjim
    I think the slight edge would be very temporary, all because of Buxton, not because of any Hicks lapse.
  7. drjim
    I think Sano is the starting RF on opening day next year.
  8. drjim
    Meyer and Buxton and soon Sano. That strikes me as something. In my mind, Oliveros is the 7th reliever I would call up at this point - behind Meyer/Tonkin, Thielbar, and the big 3 in AA. EDIT: Plus it has already offered Rosario and May this year. That's a pretty good year even if they don't call up the first three I mentioned.
  9. drjim
    Reusse on twitter last night suggested that Buxton will be up in a couple of weeks. That is the type of move I would get behind. Bring him and Meyer up (for the bullpen) and roll with the talent even if it is a little early. Let Hunter DH most of the time, and when one of Arcia/Vargas/Sano is ready bump Hicks to a 4th OF slot where he probably belongs.
  10. drjim
    For the same reason that Vargas had to get sent back down now. And Polanco is worse than Santana on D, and it would get exposed that much more in the bigs.
  11. drjim
    Sure. But this is for the long term good of Vargas. And has the added bonus of avoiding everyone posting later in the year or next year how the Twins screwed up his development. People post that calling up Vargas and Oliveros is going to make some kind of significant difference. It's not. People can certainly correctly diagnose the flaw and holes with this team, but the solutions leave something to be desired. This team is just flawed, luckily like the rest of the league.
  12. drjim
    I imagine they would like to send down Santana but don't feel good about any of the options to replace him defensively at SS. I probably agree. I still don't get why everyone is excited about Oliveros other than he is a slight upgrade over the two guys that probably don't belong. Tonkin is better and the only RP in Rochester who can move the needle is Meyer. Might be time to roll the dice. Arcia and Pinto aren't hitting and people are way too optimistic about a Vargas return. He needs more time. I personally would still give Pinto a look, though it does little for the LH power problem.
  13. drjim
    I agree with this except for the last sentence. He probably needs little work to be a bullpen weapon right now. I fear that the Twins are trying to get his confidence back to get him back in the rotation, which is probably a mistake at this point.
  14. drjim
    He left his last minor league outing because of shoulder problems. He was slated to pitch out of the pen in September.
  15. drjim
    But it is an interesting idea, fun to discuss on fan forums, but not happening (intentionally) in the real world.
  16. drjim
    The bigger issue is that people can speculate but they have no idea how good or bad a draft will be. And scouts and officials almost always underrate the current draft compared to future drafts. A year ago this draft was thought of as better than it turned out to be. Injuries and poor performance can do that. Take the good prospect why you can. Plus no guarantee you will be around next year to reap the benefits if you choose this course of action.
  17. drjim
    He could also be the DH or a corner OF, and he could also not be ready. Or Mauer could rebound. I'd worry when the Twins have too many bats instead of one-two short.
  18. drjim
    Suzuki batting 7th again, Escobar at SS and batting 8th. Looks like all our dreams may soon come true.
  19. drjim
    Perhaps the more important question is why does it matter what Mauer hits compared to other 1B? He's not going anywhere and there's not a clear replacement at this moment anyways. Best everyone can hope for is that he figures something out.
  20. drjim
    Kiley just posted a partial mock, same top 5 as Law. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mock-draft-replacement-post/ Has the Twins taking Cameron. Don't know why, but if that is the top 5 I get the feeling Twins will take Allard or Aiken.
  21. drjim
    Indeed. The things I hold on to now are that the minor injuries have hampered his injury a little bit and also the common position that he needed to rework much of what he does mechanically before he would become a great pitcher. Perhaps this is still part of that process and a breakout will soon follow, but not looking good at the moment. He is still young. Also interesting is that the first round still looks pretty weak that year aside from Bryant. Will be interesting to look back again to see if that changes. Obviously very early.
  22. drjim
    He did. I agree with him. True talent level needs to improve to sustain.
  23. drjim
    I think that "suck" is too harsh, but mediocre is more accurate. In that situation games can be stolen through taking care of and cleaning up little things and pushing games at the margins. Probably the biggest flip from last year to this year, along with better starting pitching.
  24. drjim
    One thought I have had on luck/randomness in the context of baseball analysis is that it might be too much of a go to phrase to explain the things that currently can't be captured objectively. Saying we aren't sure is not as interesting as saying it is luck/randomness. I suspect that in the near future some (if not much) of this will be captured in some way. And for the Twins, I think the main reason for the current record is clustering. I don't know if this is luck or random but likely unsustainable (which all might be the same thing). My much more cynical thought on this is that people who really, really accept baseball metrics and use them to completely explain the game and expected outcomes struggle when things fall outside the model. Easier to describe as random/luck than to look at possible intangible explanations and/or emphasize errors in the models. (And by errors I don't mean they are necessarily "wrong" but difficulty in capturing outliers). All that said, I don't think the Twins are a magical team that will defy all metrics forever. They are going to have to improve their true talent level one way or the other to stay in the playoff race. And I am an economist by training, so I am just practicing my ability to speak out of all sides of my mouth.
  25. drjim
    No, but that is a me issue.
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