TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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WAR seems to be an odd stat to choose to measure this. I can't find a site that lets me order team stats in such a way, but by OPS and runs scored this team over the course of the entire season has been average. Could they be slightly above average going forward....sure, but there are plenty of reasons to question the last month and a half as sustainable. Even if this offense can be around 10th in the league, it's still a razor thin margin of error going forward to be an average hitting and average pitching team. And that's if we can actually rely on FA and returning injured players to boost our pitching in 2013 to average. Worse yet, we'd be electing to take that slim chance with no margin for error at the expense of an opportunity now to utilize very marketable talent that we could deal to help reduce our future organizational weak points. That trade-off doesn't seem worth it. (But again, I'm not saying dump just to dump. The offers for guys like Span and Hammer need to address need with legit talent)
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Shall I post the current standing of the Twins offense or are you capable of checking that yourself? Are we shelling out 200+ million for this or just using your proposal in the other thread to throw AAA filler at adding quality talent? At some point, being realistic is pretty important to being taken seriously as well. Your entire post hinged on the claim we can just add a 1 and a 3 without giving up any major league talent - so presumably by trade or free agency. That's, um, a rather ridiculous suggestion.
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Because it was far too long to take point by point. The current offense is average. It won't be getting any better in the near future (2013) without outside help. The pitching is awful and it has even more limited options inside the organization for help. So trade some of what you have in current assets that will be replaced internally by 2013/2014 for help in the areas the organization has dire need of (middle infield and pitching) for that same time frame. You can call it "throwing away" 2013 but if you're moving in the direction of a plan you can excuse non-contention. The absolute worst thing you can do is be a bad team (like this one) and think relying on free agency alone can fix your ills.
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Well jeez, if I knew it was that easy..... Sometimes you simply don't have enough major league talent to compete and holding out hope of multiple significant free agents signings to fix that is a bleak/foolish one at best. When that time comes and you can get good value in trades that will align young talent outside your system (pitching) with what you have already (bats) - then you do that. The old saying of "one step back to take two steps forward" is the idea.
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Except that we're a middle-of-the-pack offense with Willingham having a career year, Mauer at full health, and surprising production from Revere and Plouffe. I think we have a tendency to inflate the perception of the offense in part because of how bad the pitching is. They appear better than they really are by comparison with the team's weak points when it really is quite average even with a lot of things breaking right. I don't think it's impossible for this team to contend, but if you can get good offers on these guys (read: not single A flyers, but guys who can contribute and are talented) - then you deal them. And I wouldn't be stubborn about it either. Also just to note - I agree Span is more replaceable on our roster, but his contract is very valuable and his skillset is more rare around the league than many think. We seem to be tossing the idea of moving him around pretty lightly on the basis of a few hundred Ben Revere at-bats while simultaneously ignoring Willingham's last 5 years of injuries and production. At least that's how it is coming off.
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Article: Should the Twins pick up Jonathan Sanchez?
TheLeviathan replied to DaveW's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
3/24....see if he takes it. -
The issue RP is that you keep suggesting reasons to wait that don't make a lot of sense. Waiting until the winter has serious risks. Waiting to see if we can land pitching has serious risks. Selling high, if that is available, has much less risk.
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If that was the argument I was making then that would be fair - my argument is that keeping a 33 year old with back problems around in hopes that everything will break right seems like a bad idea. Especially when that 33 year old is in the midst of his best season and has serious value to contenders. At that point I drop the hope of all going well and take the good deal when it's offered.
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The thing is - it not only has to break right in the ways we are flawed now, but all the things that have gone right this year have to maintain - Willingham's career best production, Mauer healthy, Plouffe hitting the ball like crazy, Revere hitting .315+, Scott Diamond's emergence, the bullpen's brilliance. If even some of those things revert it sets you back as well. That's a lot of "ifs" that have to go the right way all in the name of keeping around a guy who is 33 with back issues having a career first half.
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It's hard to say year to year how the team will be competitive. But Willingham's age is headed the wrong direction for this team and is unlikely to maintain the numbers he has now. Next year even if they add two pitchers and keep Willingham at his current pace we are still an average pitching staff with an average offense - not likely to be set the world on fire. I'd rather maximize the value on a player who is aging - it's just being practical in my eyes.
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I'm not sure why you insist on putting this spin on it. At his age and with his health concerns in the past he's not going to be here that long to begin with. And there is a very good chance that this is the best we'll see of him. It's simply a matter of swallowing the bitter pill of selling high on a player that isn't in the long-term future. We've been burned on this a lot lately and this situation screams out that it may happen again. No one here is hating on Willingham or wanting him gone - just being practical.
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I'm not sure I aggressively shop either of them - but reports from a couple people in town are that Willingham is considered the best trade piece on the team right now. I entertain offers for that and I don't hesitate to pull the trigger out of concern for public relations, future free agents, or anything else if the offer is right.
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See this is where we disagree. I'm not sure how long Willingham continues to stay healthy. His last 5-6 seasons have all struggled to reach 500 ABs, sometimes less than 400. As he ages that isn't likely to get better and presents the real risk that this partial season will be the most valuable. Imagine if he gets injured in August - that winter value drops dramatically. And that isn't wild speculation, his track record suggest an injury is only a matter of time. This is prime sell-high time. That isn't to say we go out of our way to get rid of him, but don't turn down a good deal if it's presented.
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It's hokey and I don't like it....but the expanded wild-card spot has greatly increased the number of teams in the hunt for the postseason. I'm not sure there will be a "lot bigger" market in the winter as there is right now. (Ryan said much the same thing on the radio Sunday) I think the expanded slots and the changes in compensation may have expanded the trade deadline market much more than in years past.
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It is strange, but this park plays perfectly to him, far better than Oakland. I'm still worried we're going to pause pulling this trigger and we'll see 300 ABs-a-year Hammer return and we'll have missed the boat on his best value.
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It was in response to a reply, my three sentencer is already up - but you completely missed the point. I have no idea what Liriano is thinking about his future, but the notion that he would take 3/24 is built on ignoring the team's struggles, his past struggles with the organization, and the value of being a free agent pitcher AND making assumptions about what Liriano would think makes sense. As Chief walked into - it's always been built, at least in part, on the notion that Liriano has been a poor pitcher lately and that he will recognize that. While it makes sense from our perspective to speculate on including that data in an offer - Liriano has no reason to do any such thing. He can believe whatever he wants. So it's really the "Offer him 3/20-whatever" crowd that is making assumptions about Liriano's train of thought. I'll stick to his stats from the last few seasons for my argument. He's been bad, I'd rather not invest any firm money into that - toss major incentives in, but save the guarantees for another player.
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You're right, it's entirely plausible that the following thought will run through Liriano's head: "I'm a terrible pitcher most of the time....I should jump at this mediocre offer from one of baseball's worst teams who I have had repeated issues with about my pitch selection, offseason routine, delivery, pitching to contact, and medical issues. I mean....they're fools for offering an inconsistent schmuck like me this kind of money....Deal!" That is pretty far-fetched. Just because Liriano is as mediocre to bad as he statistically is doesn't mean he realizes that. And he HAS to realize that fact in order for the "sign him for a team friendly deal" argument to make any sense. So out of one corner of your mouth you think he's a "frontline starter" and out of the other (in some truly baffling logic) you believe Frankie knows how bad he is. It's just so damn silly I'm amazed anyone seriously believes it.
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Deal him. This guy is barely better than Blackburn and Pavano statistically - it is nothing short of delusion to think he's going to take a cupcake deal or somehow magically transform into an ace. It's not impossible, but it's a comically stupid bad bet to invest in this guy beyond an entirely incentive laden deal.
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Good thing we don't count April! Or odd number years for Frankie - now I get why people think he's an ace!
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Unlikely and even if so you are aware of how old Willingham will be right? This in addition to the fact that he has not been a durable player in his career. I love Hammer and what he's brought to the team, but if he's got high value around the league you deal him. Ditto Span - you don't trade just to trade, but if the value is there you make the move.
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Willingham's age and track record of injury are pretty compelling reasons to pull a trigger on a good offer.
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For the people who ignored the mentality of whining from the Twins, Terry Ryan said on his radio show that: "We have to get it out of our mindset" that Target Field is hard to hit home-runs out of. The Oakland A's were hammering the ball all over the park this weekend to seal that.
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Duensing has value as a bullpen guy - just accept this fact Twins. Call up some other schmuck and put this guy back where he belongs and never try this again.
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No really, you need to lighten up. If you can't, then it's people with no sense of humor like yourself that I hope they do make fun of a little bit.
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That's not the intended solution, but you're right that they are focusing on trickle-down economics too heavily. What is amusing is that the Democratics have arguably had an even more damaging effect on the middle class ever since LBJ. I find it amusing how lefties are so blind to the damage they cause as well - just because your intentions are compassion and care - doesn't make the ****ty results any easier to swallow. What we really need is a true alternative plan from these two paths to misery. Neither party is offering that as usual.
