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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Sorry, I haven't seen that message since the email I sent you Brock. I still get an occasional malware block from the IP I gave you, but not that message anymore.
  2. TheLeviathan
    They only offered it to him because they knew his agent would never accept it. They didn't want him back, so they tried to get compensation for him on the way out the door. Nothing more. It was an offer with no intention, nor any expectation, of him accepting it. They let him go, plain and simple. What, exactly, is your basis for saying there isn't that much of a difference? I've got, by my count, six reputable links ready. But I'd love to hear why Drew is even comparable. And don't give me anything about "less athletic shortstops" or any of this other speculation. I'd like to hear where your evidence is as well. Here's one of my six links, the rest all have similar results: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp You missed the important similarity. Moving Mauer wasn't important because he was in his decline phase. Moving him was important because there was a high statistical probability that his bat would stay in the lineup more often moving to first. And there was a much lower statistical probability of another concussion. Likewise, there is a high statistical probability that Drew is declining or about to very soon. Same principle, it's one I'm sure you accept as a justification for many, many other things as well.
  3. TheLeviathan
    They offered him a poison pill. Something they knew he wouldn't take, that would get them a draft pick. They killed two birds with one stone....let him leave and open up a compensation possibility. The notion that the 14m QO is a testament to his value is twisting things. Well, yeah it's an opinion roundly shared by almost every expert who made a list you can find. There is a case to be made for Drew but it isn't Drew's D > Florimon's D. That to me just shows an unwillingness to fairly compare the two. I also find it odd you loudly trumpet the merits of moving Mauer and bemoan decline phases. The justifications are working off the same model of prediction - basically the concept of statistical likelihood.
  4. TheLeviathan
    And the World Champs are casting him off and the other 29 teams aren't all that interested either. That sort of "evidence" isn't exactly in Drews favor. Florimon is a vastly superior defender, I'm ok with his terrible bat for now as long as the glove is there. I don't feel a pressing need to add decline phase players for draft picks right now.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Since when does one's track record of success boil down to a decision made about one game in one season? C'mon now. Drew is in his decline phase and IF Hardy is even evidence that it isn't a guarantee, it's the exception that proves the rule. Most SS's decline heavily, especially in their defense. And we have reason to be suspicious of his offense away from Fenway. No thanks.
  6. TheLeviathan
    I didn't know you were comparing the 2013 versions, but that doesn't help your case much as it's less than a half season's worth of UZR data. Here's what I trust - I saw Revere play OF here and he was very, very good. Hicks was very, very underwhelming. As Thrylos said, it's a moot point because Hicks will make a fine corner OF I'm sure. Hopefully he hits enough to man that position.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Well, not every incentive. It depends on their readiness I would hope too. Sano had an adjutment period in AA, he may have another in AAA, and yet another in the majors. It's a bit presumptive of people to expect these guys are not only all-stars but they hit the road as all-stars. Even great players often take some time to get their feet wet. The idea that come June 1st we add these guys and suddenly take off is completely ignoring typical prospect development.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Nolasco is unlikely to decline as quickly and has a better track record of success. Drew has a lot of shaky parts of his background, injury history, and has already entered his decline years. Signing Stephen Drew is a patch. The Twins, very soon, are going to need to address SS. I'm just hoping they can do more than patch it. And if they need to patch it, I'd rather patch it at that time to maximize the player's ability to contribute.
  9. TheLeviathan
    One year of UZR is highly unreliable as a base of comparison. Revere's range was ridiculously better by the eye test. And Range >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Arm. Though I may have undersold the amount of >'s in that analysis.
  10. TheLeviathan
    Even with them I think the odds are strong for the under. I think the Twins will be rightly cautious about calling those kids up to what could be an awful ballclub by June 1st. My guess is many of those debuts happen closer to Aug 1 than June 1. And even if they're earlier, a 10 win improvement over their pyth is a lot to ask for.
  11. TheLeviathan
    I'm highly dubious of this lineup putting 7 guys on base all game on most nights, much less in front of Florimon, but that still doesn't mean Drew makes sense.
  12. TheLeviathan
    I'm sorry, but Hicks was not as good or better than Revere in the field last year. I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. That's not dismissing his future, just stating plainly how underwhelming he was.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Life savings on the under. No way this group, with this offense, has a 10 win improvement. (Wildcards like Sano/Buxton/etc. subject to change that of course.)
  14. TheLeviathan
    I'm pretty sure Drew won't hit enough that if we wanted to trade him on July 31, that we'd get equal value to the 2nd rounder we lose to sign him. And as cmathewson pointed out....extending the deal only further guarantees we endure his sub-prime years at a healthy price. No thanks. A day may come soon when the Drews of the world make sense for us. But it ain't now.
  15. TheLeviathan
    Is that the official line? If so that makes it an over for me. I expected 67 or 68....which would've made it very difficult.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Well, it could be worse. Had he been interviewed by an attractive woman and said X-ray vision, for example.
  17. TheLeviathan
    im im very high on Arcia long term but this year is not a given to be better. Sophomore slumps are not uncommon even for great players. This could be a tough adjustment year leading to great things later. While Mauer may improve on Morneau....Suzuki doesn't replace Mauer. That may be a net loss. 70 wins is a 9 win improvement from their pyth last year. To me that's significant improvement and a far more reasonable projection.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Boy, when you put it on paper like that - I'm pretty sure I'd take the under on 70. Man I hope Sano is ready from the start.
  19. TheLeviathan
    You may be right that all four won't make it, but there is also Kepler in the system as well. Arcia showed, to me, a skill set that is best going to be adequate in the OF. And that's fine, if we end up having to play him there adequate or even below that isn't going to kill us. However, he also projects the be the clear-cut fourth outfielder of the group defensively. As Doc said, DHing does take a different kind of mental approach. If it's something Arcia is going to be doing full time or even regularly - I'd like to see him start to get that going in the next two years. Keeping Willingham around just muddies the team's options.
  20. TheLeviathan
    Citing where he started his career is pretty irrelevant, IMO. Plouffe and Cuddyer started as shortstops, that doesn't mean they belonged there in the majors. Should Arcia get more opportunities this year to get better? Absolutely. But he was pretty dreadful and his instincts looked even worse last year. Given the group coming up behind him, it may be worthwhile to start getting him adjusted earlier to the mental part of DHing rather than pretending he's something he's not.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Agreed, there is still time and injury issues. The unfortunate thing is that their best depth is lost if not immediately retained out of ST. And their most ready young contributor needs to be with the club if he is truly ready but I'm not sure, short of injury, that Gibson has any chance. I just don't like that for a prospect as old as he is. He should be up or not based on the merit of his readiness alone. And I like it all a lot less because we aren't in this pickle but for a player with no future with the team, no trade value, and barely above replacement performance. I really want to root for Gibson and Worley having great years instead because they represent a real step toward the future rather than wheel spinning.
  22. TheLeviathan
    This thread illustrates the problem I was irritated by a few months ago. At this point the Twins have backed themselves into a scenario of either losing Diamond/Worley/Deduno via waivers or basically giving Gibson zero shot of making the team out of the gate. Losing any of these guys for nothing would be a shame and so would forcing Gibson to AAA ready or not. I'll say it again....sure would be nice if we could find a way to shed Correia. That second year....ugh.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Arcia needs to be the future DH at this point and Willingham is aging clutter. The guy had trouble staying on the field in his prime, the older he gets the less prudent it is to invest in him. Our best hope is a moderate bounce back and trade fodder.
  24. TheLeviathan
    I give you credit for lasting as long as you did. Grad school was enough for me to see what academia really is to know I'd never be able to tolerate that nonsense. Education has offered me an amazing group of colleagues and the chance to be both irreverent and impactful. I like the advice about personality. I think there has been a shift from looking at credentials to looking at the person in the last few years. Just be yourself and hope its a fit. Best of luck.
  25. TheLeviathan
    I'd feel better about this spin if the following facts weren't relevant: Pelfrey's ERA innings 1-3: 5.19 ERA Hughes: 5.62 Correia: 5.06 Nolasco: 4.72 So, yeah, strong initial starts to their games aren't these pitchers strengths. That's not to bad-mouth the improvements, just sobering this spin a bit.
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