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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    I don't get why we have to dog Arcia and Vargas for something that comes with their game. They are under 25 years old - one of their best strengths is turning and driving the ball. We should be celebrating that the Twins are working to build on strengths and improve weaknesses rather than trying to completely reinvent every guy into Slappy McGoTheOtherWay. Yeah, Arcia and Vargas aren't all-star finished products. Give em some damn time and be thrilled at how they are managing to drive the ball with authority. David Ortiz pointed, more than anything else, at the mental relief to not feel pressure to be something he was not. He still had to learn to improve his game, but he also felt free to play HIS game. Let's be happy these kids are coming up, playing to their strengths at a young age in MLB, and finding some success.
  2. TheLeviathan
    I like wRC+, largely because it does many of the things WAR does well without the crummy defensive metrics.
  3. TheLeviathan
    "Luck" on offense stabilizes fairly quickly, but even if you want to equate luck on offense and defensive it says nothing of the difficulty quantifying defense. That's the problem, not luck.
  4. TheLeviathan
    Jay answered this earlier. (Last post, first page) OPS is a fairly accurate measure of past performance much more quickly than UZR or, subsequently, WAR. So while it's true that it is a reflection of the past, it's a far less accurate one than OPS.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Except how directional they are reduces dramatically the smaller the sample size. Since WAR is often used as a season-by-season comparison tool it incorporates defensive metrics in their least valuable form without seemingly taking that into account. It's why Alex Gordon is laughably two wins better than Miguel Cabrera this year. Something no rational person would agree is an accurate valuation.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Well, how about just properly use the statistic? We seem to understand UZR is best used with a large amount of data....yet we use WAR without even considering it's reliance on UZR and use it to judge a player's seasonal performance. We may get to the point that we can track defense more accurately (I think Jack Goin was on the radio last weekend or so talking about some experimental stuff the Twins are partnering on) - but until that happens we should probably not try to portray them as something they're not.
  7. TheLeviathan
    I don't agree to that. Wait......
  8. TheLeviathan
    I agree, but if you're trying to source the reason for people playing doctor - that uncertainty is precisely why. When Adrian Peterson busted his knee, no one felt compelled to play doctor. Why? Because we knew what was wrong, there was no reason to. Likewise with every other injury that is clearly labeled. To the contrary, when someone has an "upper body injury" in the NHL that could be code for anything from a concussion to a shoulder. But with the uncertainty you have people start to play doctor. It's human nature to try and fill in the gaps of what you don't know when you have part of the puzzle. So some of the push-back Mauer got on that injury was precisely for that reason. I'm not speaking about this positively or negatively, just tracing the source of the issue. To Seth's dubious counterpoint - as fans we "need to know" absolutely nothing but teams are generally open about injuries precisely to avoid silly speculation. You also invite speculation when you sound like you got your diagnosis from this guy: http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/square_small/0/7203/161847-12776-dr-nick-riviera.png
  9. TheLeviathan
    This doesn't exactly mesh with your version Seth. This indicates he was telling his manager it wasn't his knee, but other parts of his lower body. I think something was definitely wrong, not that he was soft. However, I also remember getting exasperated with all this vague, made-up sounding nonsense at the time. It was the precursor to the "lower body injury" nonsense we see in the NHL and NFL now.
  10. TheLeviathan
    Wow...I was having almost that exact debate with someone the other day. I used Heyward as an example of a guy whose WAR vastly overstates his significance. Couldn't agree with your post more.
  11. TheLeviathan
    If you don't mind drjim, the next time I disagree with someone about the value of WAR....I'm using your post. It's spot on.
  12. TheLeviathan
    This points to the real cause of the "everyone is a doctor" thing: the mystery surrounding his prolonged absence. It was as much a public relations bungling as it was anything.
  13. TheLeviathan
    "Not precise" is not the issue. It's largely subjective. I prefer stats, cumulative or rate, that are objective.
  14. TheLeviathan
    WAR is a good example of the kind of stat that becomes it's own worst enemy when people use it in too heavy-handed a manner. Just like xFIP in this instance.
  15. TheLeviathan
    It's a cute little stat to look at, but defensive value is so subjective I'd much rather consult other stats to judge value.
  16. TheLeviathan
    This isn't a hindsight issue - over at BYTO that was always the chief complaint about Ryan. Everyone knew his hands were being tied by ownership, but that didn't make his FA choices any easier to swallow. Last year he stepped out of that box, let's hope he stays there.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Right, using the pitching, defense, and hitting. The winning pitcher is only partially responsible for one of those three things.
  18. TheLeviathan
    I know there is some experimentation out there with trying to shorten the gaps between pitches. So there is less of a song and dance constantly with guys going in and out of the box. The game was played in shorter lengths of time in the past, I'd push to get back there.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Counter-factuals like this really aren't a valid argument. I know it sounds like it is to say "yeah, but what could've been better" but it eliminates the trade market among other things for how resources could be allocated. The issue is the approach, not necessarily the results. Now results like Ramon Ortiz, White, Cirillo, Ponson, etc. tend to verify my problem with the approach, but that's not the issue. The truth is in 2007 there was 9M dollars worth of dead weight on a team with a 70 million-ish payroll. That's pretty significant and something we saw consistently through our competitive years from Ryan.
  20. TheLeviathan
    And that's all it indicates. The factors that determine whether it was "well enough" combine a whole host of factors well beyond that player's control. No one is saying it's useless, just far from the go-to. (Far, FAR from it)
  21. TheLeviathan
    There is and it was a wonderful breath of fresh air. But let's not pretend Ryan's dabbling in FA has ever made much sense. Even under restrictive payrolls he nickel'd and dime'd rather than sought true upgrades. (Just look at some of the wasted millions between 2005-2008 that, if combined, might have actually added someone who could play baseball effectively) So fair or not, Ryan has a reputation he has to buck to make people believe he's changed his stripes.
  22. TheLeviathan
    You lost me at "W" is the most telling statistic. Sorry.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Whoever it is better make speeding up the game the number one priority.
  24. TheLeviathan
    Gibson has taken a really positive step forward. If he continues this kind of pitching he's a real asset and probably better considered a #3 and a solid one at that.
  25. TheLeviathan
    This certainly doesn't help public perception about ownership and what they prize most.
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