TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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Bird, it's hard not to see you conflating hope and reality when you cite prospect depth. That's a hope thing, not a reality. I get the desire to feel optimistic, I just think you're convincing yourself of a reality that isn't true yet. I do share your optimism that it's coming and the signs will get more and more frequent from here. But right? The team is just bad with a few bright spots. -
With the Love trade due to be announced sometime in the next week, what are everyone's thoughts? As of now here is the deal: T-Wolves trade: Kevin Love, Alexy Shved, and Luc Mbah a Moute T-Wolves get: Thaddeus Young, Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett. In my opinion, Flip got quite a bit more back than I expected. It's excellent quality and upside for spare parts and a guy that was bound to leave here. I like it quite a bit.
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I guess I fail to see the difference between early June and mid August. Was he going to walk 15 per 9 innings or something I'm missing?
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Sure, Mauer has been uninspiring, many of those names are enormous regression risks for future seasons, Hicks has been a miserable failure thus far, Arcia is still working through his issues, Nolasco has been terrible, and there is the pile of flops the team has since cut bait with that contributed much to this season. Again, there is reason for hope because there has been roster turnover for the better. I've said before I think we're starting to see the climb uphill beginning just based on the fact that we've shed a lot of the 30+ filler. But that climb uphill is still going to include a lot of bad baseball on the way to developing these kids for the biggest jump. The question posed here in this thread is about the quality of baseball being played by the team and this season has not been "good" by many measures. I would caution against confusing the idea of increasing hope with increasing quality of play. At some point they will intersect, but it ain't now.
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Depends, the range of predictions for contention have varied wildly. Most people weren't expecting us to be this far away from the playoffs entering 2015, so I would take issue with that first quoted part. As for the other, I think 2016 is the soonest we flirt with .500 simply because I'm a realist about the time prospects need to be good to great players. And that's ok, people seem to be so willing to preach patience about kids coming up through the minors but that patience evaporates the second they hit the majors.
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Picking out a few nice trees to admire doesn't mean the forest isn't in tough shape. You're choosing to talk about isolated players and the focus of the question is the team.
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Or maybe we as fans need to stop expecting prospects to be all-stars upon debut. Or even as second year players. It's a massive adjustment to the big leagues that has had many stars of this game through initially. I'd argue no amount of AAA starts can prepare you for all the atmosphere that is brought in a start in the majors and getting through those early jitters and hurdles is a typical necessity. I don't know what they are doing with Meyer, it hasn't made a ton of sense, but I'm not going to bang the drum on this. Except to say this: Ryan's choice of words here certainly lends itself well to speculation and bewilderment, regardless of what he meant.
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I would suggest that we could agree some things are better and still be fooling ourselves about how far away from "good" we still are. It's pretty far and probably a considerable time away yet.
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OK GM's, your LF addition for 2015 is...
TheLeviathan replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
It's nice to see the Duensing rule alive and well in these offers. -
They might not....and if they don't you don't move him. I'm simply endorsing that we shop him because it would make sense from a value standpoint and for getting Santana back to where he needs to be playing.
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People keep pointing out the problem with "sell high" is that no other teams will want him because he's a likely regression candidate...but then they argue he's a really valuable guy to keep around because of his production in future seasons. I'm a bit confused how we want to have it both ways.
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Possibly, that's the risk in buying high, but teams do this. The Twins should shop him before he goes pumpkin and see if there are any takers. The team needs to find plan Bs, but if you can take one of your Plan Bs and turn it into a Plan A - it's worth exploring.
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Except this is based on the premise that 2014 Escobar will be 2015 Escobar and I have serious doubts about that.
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Of course no one is going to come calling drunk on love for 360 plate appearances. But they may see him in a more positive light than they would otherwise. Especially given the dearth of shortstops out there. It's a scarecrow to think "sell high" means you're going to get Alex Meyer or something for him. No one is saying that. You might, however, find an interesting young OF for him so you can slide Santana where he needs to be.
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I agree diehard, I'd shop him not just because he's a great "sell high" guy but also because Santana needs to be the SS Longterm and I'd rather gamble on him maintaining his production than Escobar.
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I think shopping Escobar now for an elevated return is worth pursuing.
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That entire article was basically arguing "Yeah, WAR is wrong here" and then tried to figure out how wrong it was by talking about what a very small sample size is really weighting the UZR component.
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A ridiculous BABIP doesn't make him a bad hitter. Just prime for regression. Here's another way to say this point: UZR, in part, can be based on I accurately recorded past results. That isn't the same kind of problem as a high BABIP.
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I think you're making more out of "good hit" vs "bad hit" to try and make a point. If such a distinction even exists.
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That just means it isn't sustainable. The problem cited about UZR is more analogous to it recording a "hit" when reality was a groundout.
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Arcia, Vargas and Rebellion
TheLeviathan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You have to look at the context of that quote, it was in a story about Vargas having shifts getting in his head. So he was trying to overcompensate in his approach to beat shifts. I don't think the Twins as heavy-handed about their "slap it the other way" approach for a few years now. -
Arcia, Vargas and Rebellion
TheLeviathan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's exactly what it means - and it's great! -
There are not words to describe my awe at the fact that LaTroy Hawkins is still pitching.
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Arcia, Vargas and Rebellion
TheLeviathan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It boggles my mind that people are so opposed to a poor reflection on the organization that they'd rip these kids for what they are working on just so there isn't the slightest negative criticism. This team was too heavy handed for a long time in their player molds and, much to Ryan and others credit, that's no longer the case. So let's relish in this new, better way of operating as a team and coaching staff and not be so damn defensive of the poorer methods left behind.
