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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    The protection in an extension for Dozier is largely for him. The Twins lose their protection against him falling apart or getting hurt. Cost certainty is being talked about in these threads as if it is always a good thing. It's only a good thing in the situation of highly likely escalating cost. It can be a terrible thing when those costs stop escalating and/or decline. The Twins have time to see how likely it is Dozier is going to keep escalating and jorgen does an excellent job suggesting here that the comparable players to Brian Dozier indicate he's a player NOT likely to do so.
  2. TheLeviathan
    I would argue we have devested ourselves of Aaron Hicks. Marching him out to CF last year (and again if we do so this year) is all but declaring him a failure. And I'll say it again - those furture assets like May and Meyer as well as the high money investment pitchers - would sure make some better memories if they had a semi-competent defense behind them. I am baffled by how this organization and this fan-base continue to think this problem is all on the pitchers. Doc is right - get them a damn centerfielder already. A real one.
  3. TheLeviathan
    That poor child is going to live the rest of his/her life knowing he killed someone. (Probably his mother by most accounts)
  4. TheLeviathan
    Pfft, if you wer oddjob that just made headshots easier!
  5. TheLeviathan

    N64

    TheLeviathan posted a topic in The Sports Bar

    The greatest system for it's time we've ever seen. Discuss. (This may or may not have been motivated by a weekend Mario Cart/GoldenEye marathon)
  6. TheLeviathan
    Not a ton - in 2013 he was a 98 OPS+ player. Dozier is a good player, but his margin for error is not as high as people seem to think, just by the nature of the type of player he is. (See Dan Uggla or Aaron Hill, though Dozier is a better defender) The thing that you seem to omit is that the Twins are currently protected from long-term risk should everything go wrong. Signing him to an extension not only eliminates that protection, but it has a bunch of money hanging over the team should things turn sour. So you've compounded the problem. Also, handing out money to create trade value seems like an even worse reason to give an extension.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Only if everything goes right....yes. If Dozier keeps producing, if his skill set keeps him as a good player into his mid-30s, and he doesn't get hurt. Yes, then it would work out. Why, however, with all those ifs and the paltry gain of a few handfuls of cash this team is swimming in anyway....would you take the risk that everything has to go right when you still have four years to make that decision and see how things play out?
  8. TheLeviathan
    We are four years away from that scenario, so that risk is minimal and quite far off in the distance. While still under arbitration Dozier will retain high trade leverage as long as he's still producing. Trying to an extension now significantly increases the risk of the extension. Hence my point about the young kids as well - of course it'd be silly to extend them. But Dozier is closer to being that kind of extension than Phil Hughes.
  9. TheLeviathan
    How often have they happened? Longoria? Braun? Pedroia? Dozier doesn't belong in that conversation, he's closer to the Span, Blackburn, Cahill, etc. type of player and that seems to have mixed results.
  10. TheLeviathan
    We always talk about these things in the best case scenario, but the truth is that these kinds of extensions are extremely rare for a reason: they have a ton of risk. Brian Dozier could easily turn into Trevor Cahill as much as he could Pedroia. When there isn't a gun to your head to act, acting anyway with that much risk seems really silly.
  11. TheLeviathan
    So will the price for Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Brian Buxton, etc. At some point you need to let the process work itself out and pay the price when it makes the most sense. Right now it makes absolutely no sense.
  12. TheLeviathan
    I think Miguel Sano is going to be a beast too.....but I'm not going to hand him tens of millions more now when I don't have to. It's just so unnecesary to extend him right now.
  13. TheLeviathan
    I would argue people are way too extension happy. Dozier is four years from being a FA. Four years. I'll say it again: four....years. What is the damn rush to toss money at players? At this point someone better start a thread about giving Kohl Stewart a 12 years/100M dollar deal just to make sure we save a bunch of money in 2025. Slow down people, lots of time to make a decision on Dozier.
  14. TheLeviathan
    I thought the same thing. I just don't get how this team seems to ignore that the best, and easiest, way to make your whole pitching staff better is fielding a competent defense.
  15. TheLeviathan
    I think this is currently what bugs me most about this team. I agree with what they've done to add pitching, that has to be improved too, but utterly ignoring the defense? I can't explain that.
  16. TheLeviathan
    It does seem like we've been looking for shooting forever. A guy like Rubio, ideally, is surrounded by shooters to make him as effective as he can be.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Frankly nothing is 100% trustworthy for projections because you're basically getting out your crystal ball. The problem with defensive metrics is they aren't reliable even as an evaluative tool for what has actually already taken place on the field. ERA, BA, and other commonly used measures are.
  18. TheLeviathan
    I love this thread and agree with most everything said but....huh? Are we talking the same Arcia?
  19. TheLeviathan
    After the minimum what do people expect him to start making? I get the impression they think it will skyrocket and that is partially driving this. Just so we are all clear, the highest paid third year service time Arby price was 6.5 million and that was Giancarlo Stanton. I think I can comfortably put Dozier well below that level.
  20. TheLeviathan
    I'm all-in on Berrios too. There is nothing more enjoyable for me than watching an elite pitcher work his magic and I think Berrios is our best chance to be that.
  21. TheLeviathan
    This right here is pretty good evidence to the contrary of your position. No, my notion that veterans were favored happened right around the time I was subjected to Juan friggin Castro over Jason Bartlett. And that tendency happened time and again, some more egregious than others. We know from studies that the team promotes more slowly than any other team for the last decade as well. And lastly, citing only Correia seems a bit silly since I shouldn't have to list the names of the bottom feeders we threw before Gibson or Meyer or May the last few years. Only one of that laundry list of awful pitchers was named Kevin Correia, the other dozen or so not as much. If you could demonstrate, for example, that the team promotes players similarly to the rest of the league or is perfectly average in their promotion tendencies you might have a point. I'd agree that it may be observer bias in that scenario. But, instead, we have evidence that they are slower than everyone else. It's not perfect evidence, of course, but it's far closer to justifying my stance than yours. Also, I never called this "inept". I would call it inexplicable, however. And it's a tendency that appears to happen only to pitchers once they reach the high minors. It appears to be an organizational philosophy that I don't understand.
  22. TheLeviathan
    The injury justification only lasts so long, both of those guys pitched well past that point in AAA. Most reasonable people were frustrated with the feet dragging on both of those guys. Trevor May last year as well. Scott Baker threw almost 400 innings in AAA. Slowey and Perkins threw around 200 down there. All of this while other teams are frequently skipping AAA entirely to avoid arm abuse. But most importantly - the two best pitching prospects the team has had since Liriano or Radke have been stalled while a laundry list of garbage has pitched in their place.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Everything about the type of player Buxton sounds like he's going to be has me excited. I genuinely hope that athleticism comes with the instincts Hicks seems to lack.
  24. TheLeviathan
    I hope so, but as a caution we heard Aaron Hicks was god's gift to CF defense too and how has that turned out? Minor leaguer defense is easily the least trustable part of their scouting profile. Guys seem them a few times a year max - in that time you can analyze swings and contact and pitch velocity and all that stuff. But the difference between an ok defender and a great one isn't usually seen in 2 or 3 games. I have to see Buxton first before I bank on anything about his defense.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Well, why did Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel make the team? Why did Ricky Nolasco keep a spot for several months until an "injury" forced hiim out? Do I hope Molitor will be different than Gardy in that respect? Yes, I do. But Ryan is still in charge and still forming the roster, so while I share your hope that awful 2014 performances/injuries give a real window for those young guys to get the jobs, I think I'd rather see it happen first. Afterall, we have mountains of evidence that shows this rarely happens out of ST and I can't think of a single example (outside of maybe Hicks and he all but had the road paved in gold for him to start no matter what he did) to the contrary. I'm just a bit too practical to drop all that evidence because one guy changed in the organization that has largely stayed the same otherwise.
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