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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    We should have dumped Plouffe for anything. Waiting for a sweetheart deal is as big a mistake as anything.
  2. TheLeviathan
    Ah, alright so then two court picks offset the entire cabinet of arch-conservatives and make him a closet Dem?
  3. TheLeviathan
    Honestly, I don't know their prospects well enough. My point was just that if the Twins like DeLeon, then they should consider the trade a win already. I'd be greedy about things for risk and all that, but I wouldn't go crazy in what I demand. What I'm trading is an asset with serious shelf life and serious risk of deflating, so to land a needed piece I really like is going to temper my expectations.
  4. TheLeviathan
    Is your argument here that two cabinet picks out of dozens is evidence he's not a Republican?
  5. TheLeviathan
    Brian Dozier has already been that pumpkin. He played like it for half a season in 2014 and a third of a season in 2015. And let's be clear, he doesn't even have to turn into a pumpkin for him to lose tremendous amounts of value. All he has to do is confirm 2016 was an outlier by regressing to career norms. Or age. Or have less team control. And any combination of the above multiplies the effect. The rest of your post implies we shouldn't trade him for anything that will ever be on the table (prospects) and continue to roll with this pitching staff. We'll never get more than a, to use your terms I don't agree with, a 1/3 pitcher. It won't happen. So you've clearly ruled out trading Dozier at all. So the question of the day goes back to you - how do you fix this pitching staff? Since you have clearly ruled out that option. And don't tell me a couple lesser prospects mitigates the risk you just laid out. 1/4 of a pitcher and two 1/8 pitchers doesn't magically make it a good deal.
  6. TheLeviathan
    No, I also think the situation calls for asking for more to mitigate the risk. But my approach to the second and third pieces is going to be quite different than many of you because I'm realistic about what Dozier's value is. And I'm realistic about what a fair return is. And more than anything, I'm realistic about what is most probable going forward to help this team win games again. And that's going to require us to gamble on high upside pitching and hope our new FO identifies the right guys. Otherwise, enjoy your 25 HR Dozier seasons while we lose 8-5 90 some odd times.
  7. TheLeviathan
    They should target players they like. And they should like players they are confident in. I mean, what's the alternative to what I'm suggesting? That FO run around blindly hoping? What's the point of even having a scouting department then?
  8. TheLeviathan
    I would hope they are confident in their assessments. If they are targeting DeLeon, they better believe in him.
  9. TheLeviathan
    If the example you gave is granted, then so too is the possibility that Dozier is a 600 OPS player like he was for a third of last year. If those sorts of arguments are valid they would seem to wash out. Let's look at more probable outcomes. So, relatively speaking, the floor is high. This isnt an A ball prospect. This is a top 30, near ready starter. The player we are moving, while valuable, has very little value to our ability to turn things around and will be aging into his 30s with less and less affordable control. Given those factors, it has a good chance of doing minimal damage even if this busts. We will have given up an asset for a high upside play that, even if it busts, doesn't set us back any further than we already are. Have we forgotten just how ridiculously far this staff is from competing?
  10. TheLeviathan
    The floor is high because even if he accomplishes nothing more than being a #4 starter for 6 years the Twins still gain more from that over the long term than retaining Dozier for two more years of not competing. Would I take a straight up deal? No. But if I really liked DeLeon, the secondary pieces are just about risk mitigation and not value. That is a major difference IMO.
  11. TheLeviathan
    For the record, I don't know enough about DeLeon to say. There are things are like, things I'm wary of. What I won't buy into is some of the pie-in-the-sky thinking that we'll just push this down the line and still be ok. That's highly unlikely. Much more highly unlikely than most of you want to acknowledge. And I get that, because I agree that a bad deal is a bad thing too. But at the same time, we just went through a season in which a poorly constructed, glut-filled roster turned into a hideous tire fire. Keeping Dozier and the same putrid pitching staff feels like some of the same mistaken thinking that lead to Sano in the OF to keep Plouffe around. We prized "get a kick ass deal" over "get this roster looking like something that might actually work" Dozier for DeLeon (if the Twins really like him) is a deal with enormous upside and a relatively high floor as well. Because our pitching is that bad. And Dozier is of that little good to us over the next two years. I can't emphasize that enough. I wonder if it might be why the Dodgers are playing hard ball on this.
  12. TheLeviathan
    That's fine, you are welcome to feel that way. The thing is: the Twins probably don't, or we wouldn't be here.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Not if you think highly of DeLeon. If the Twins feel he is pretty much a lock to be a good SP - then you have already won the deal even if it is 1:1. That's the reality of this. And, even further, if you are confident (and you really should be) that you'll not get offered a player of his caliber again, why are you quibbling over the secondary pieces?
  14. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure this is simplicity so much as Lightning-ifying the Dodgers logo.
  15. TheLeviathan
    Right, so maybe DeLeon is, by a wide margin, the best centerpiece we'll see at any point in our efforts to deal him. If true, my care for who piece two or three is dramatically drops off.
  16. TheLeviathan
    It absolutely can be true. We might be, as his home fans, dramatically over-valuing him relative to the rest of the league. But it seems certain there was at least a top 30ish prospect on the table for him. We are highly unlikely to see that again, regardless of what else is included. If for no other reason than those prospects don't move often and when they do, it's not for hitters.
  17. TheLeviathan
    The rumored offer strikes me as BS. Whatever is true, it ain't a 1:1 swap. We wouldn't have a month of smoke if that was all the fire that was causing it.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Yeah, this seems profoundly stupid by the Chargers.
  19. TheLeviathan
    I would hope, if we deal Dozier, we are targeting pitching. And the closer to the bigs the better. I really think you're looking past some pretty simple probabilities to conclude waiting is anything other than a gigantic risk.
  20. TheLeviathan
    Did the trauma of last year lead you to forget what our pitching looked like? You know, the exact same pitching staff we are currently slated to return with next year? And to drjim: Please god no. Nothing good comes of even thinking about that.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Even if he establishes that 2016 isn't an outlier, you're still talking about finding a partner midseason and the returns on those trades for hitters have not been nearly as good as moves during the offseason.
  22. TheLeviathan
    I don't get it. It's not like LA embraced the Rams returning.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Most of the "bad clubhouse guy" nonsense stems from overly senstive "jackwagons" who get pissed that a dude is excited to hit a homerun. On the list of reasons not to pursue Jose, his personality doesn't crack my top 10.
  24. TheLeviathan
    I get the feeling people that want this think "he hits so well at Target Field! This will be great!" And fail to remember who he was hitting against. It ain't the ballpark that he likes folks.....
  25. TheLeviathan
    Dave is right, the idea that any offer will ever come along that's better is a myth. It's more likely Dozier is roommates with Sasquatch than anything better than DeLeon is coming along. I still ask for more if i'm the Twins, but that's just the truth of it.
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